Ground-based Neutron Monitor Research Articles

Variations in the Inferred Cosmic-Ray Spectral Index as Measured by Neutron Monitors in Antarctica

A technique has recently been developed for tracking short-term spectral variations in Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) using data from a single neutron monitor (NM), by collecting histograms of the time delay between successive neutron counts and extracting the leader fraction L as a proxy of the spectral index. Here we analyze L from four Antarctic NMs from 2015 March to 2023 September. We have calibrated L from the South Pole NM with respect to a daily spectral index determined from published data of GCR proton fluxes during 2015–2019 from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02) on board the International Space Station. Our results demonstrate a robust correlation between the leader fraction and the spectral index fit over the rigidity range 2.97–16.6 GV for AMS-02 data, with uncertainty of 0.018 in the daily spectral index as inferred from L. In addition to the 11 yr solar activity cycle, a wavelet analysis confirms a 27 day periodicity in the GCR flux and spectral index corresponding to solar rotation, especially near sunspot minimum, while the flux occasionally exhibits a strong harmonic at 13.5 days. The magnetic field component along a nominal Parker spiral (i.e., the magnetic sector structure) is a strong determinant of such spectral and flux variations, with the solar wind speed exerting an additional, nearly rigidity-independent influence on flux variations. Our investigation affirms the capability of ground-based NM stations to accurately and continuously monitor cosmic-ray spectral variations over the long-term future.

Unusual Forbush Decreases and Geomagnetic Storms on 24 March, 2024 and 11 May, 2024

As the current solar cycle 25 progresses and moves towards solar maxima, solar activity is increasing and extreme space weather events are taking place. Two severe geomagnetic storms accompanied by two large Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic ray intensity were recorded in March and May, 2024. More precisely, on 24 March 2024, a G4 (according to the NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms) geomagnetic storm was registered, with the corresponding geomagnetic indices Kp and Dst equal to 8 and −130 nT, respectively. On the same day, the majority of ground-based neutron monitor stations recorded an unusual Forbush decrease. This event stands out from a typical Forbush decrease because of its high amplitude decrease phase and rapid recovery phase, i.e., 15% decrease and an extremely rapid recovery of 10% within 1.5 h, as recorded at the Oulu neutron monitor station. Furthermore, on 10–13 May 2024, an unusual G5 geomagnetic storm (geomagnetic indices Kp = 9 and Dst = −412 nT) was registered (the last G5 storm had been observed in 2003). In addition, the polar neutron monitor stations recorded a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE74) during the recovery phase of a large Forbush decrease of 15%, which started on 10 May 2024. In this study, a detailed analysis of these two severe events in regard to the accompanying solar activity, interplanetary conditions and solar energetic particle events is provided. Moreover, the results of the NKUA “GLE Alert++ system”, the NKUA/IZMIRAN “FD Precursory Signals” method and the NKUA “ap Prediction tool” concerning these events are presented.

A Geomagnetic Estimate of Heliospheric Modulation Potential over the Last 175 Years

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) interact with the Earth’s atmosphere to produce energetic neutrons and cosmogenic radionuclides, such as 14C. The atmosphere is partially shielded from the interstellar GCR spectrum by both the geomagnetic and solar magnetic fields. Solar shielding is often expressed as the heliospheric modulation potential ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document}, which consolidates information about the strength and structure of the solar magnetic field into a single parameter. For the period 1951 to today, ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} can be estimated from ground-based neutron monitor data. Prior to 1950, 14C in tree rings can be used to estimate ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} and hence the solar magnetic field, back centuries or millennia. Bridging the gap in the ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} record is therefore of vital importance for long-term solar reconstructions. One method is to model ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} using the sunspot number (SN) record. However, the SN record is only an indirect measure of the Sun’s magnetic field, introducing uncertainty, and the record suffers from calibration issues. Here we present a new reconstruction of ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} based on geomagnetic data, which spans both the entire duration of the neutron monitor record and stretches back to 1845, providing a significant overlap with the 14C data. We first modify and test the existing model of ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} based on a number of heliospheric parameters, namely the open solar flux FS\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$F_{S}$\\end{document}, the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\alpha $\\end{document}, and the global heliospheric magnetic polarity p\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$p$\\end{document}. This modified model is applied to recently updated geomagnetic estimates of FS\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$F_{S}$\\end{document} and cyclic variations of α\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\alpha $\\end{document} and p\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$p$\\end{document}. This approach is shown to produce an annual estimate of ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} in excellent agreement with that obtained from neutron monitors over 1951 – 2023. It also suggests that ionisation chamber estimates of ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} – which have previously been used to extend the instrumental estimate back from 1951 to 1933 – are not well calibrated. Comparison of the new geomagnetic ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} with 14C estimates of ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} suggests that the long-term trend is overestimated in the most recent 14C data, possibly due to hemispheric differences in the Suess effect, related to the release of carbon by the burning of fossil fuels. We suggest that the new geomagnetic estimate of ϕ\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$\\phi $\\end{document} will provide an improved basis for future calibration of long-term solar activity reconstructions.

Behaviour of 27-Day and 13.5-Day Periodicities in Galactic Cosmic Particles as Observed by Spacecraft and Neutron Monitors During Different Solar Polarity Cycles

An analysis has been made of the behaviour of the 27-day and 13.5-day periodicities in proton, C, and O galactic-cosmic-ray (GCR) particles at different energies as observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) spacecraft during both Solar Cycles 23 and 24. In addition, the behaviour of the 27-day and 13.5-day periods in the solar-wind-modulation parameter zeta = BIMF × VSW has been investigated during the same time interval to determine the existence of a possible solar-polarity dependence. Ground-based neutron-monitor (NM) observations, corresponding to different rigidity cutoff [RC] parameters, were also studied to determine the temporal behaviour of both the 27-day and 13.5-day periods during Cycles 23 and 24, revealing a statistically significant solar-polarity correlation. The Lomb–Scargle periodogram technique has been employed to extract spectral information from the above-mentioned observations for each individual year from 2001 – 2009 (Cycle 23) and 2010 – 2019 (Cycle 24). Daily mean energetic ACE and SOHO particle measurements are used to identify how both the 27-day and 13.5-day periodicities vary during each individual year during these cycles as a function of particle mean energy. This spectral analysis of proton, C, and O galactic-cosmic-particle data at different energies revealed that both the 27-day and 13.5-day periods are stronger during the minimum of Solar Cycle 24/25 when A > 0 (solar dipole pointing North) in comparison to the minimum of Cycle 23/24 when A < 0 (solar dipole pointing South) at certain energy levels. This showed a particularly strong energy-dependent behaviour for both periodicities. This article reports for the first time an annual time- and energy-dependent behaviour of both the 27-day and 13.5-day periodicities in daily-mean galactic cosmic particles observed by spacecraft and ground-based neutron monitors during consecutive Solar Cycles 23 and 24, corresponding to opposite solar-magnetic-field orientations. Periodicity behaviour in heliospheric solar-wind data corroborate these results in general.

Variations of cosmic ray intensity with the solar flare index, coronal index, and geomagnetic indices: Wavelet and cross correlation approaches

In this study, the cosmic ray stuff and its associations with the solar flare index, coronal index, and geomagnetic indices, such as Kp, auroral electrojets, Ap, disturbance storm time (Dst), polar cap, Lyman-alpha, Hp60, and Ap60 indices, were studied using wavelet-based approaches over KIEL and MOSC stations during 2003 and 2004. The cosmic ray data used in this study were obtained from ground-based neutron monitor stations. Different sources are also used to get data on the different indices used in this study. The yearly variation in cosmic ray intensity revealed that the intensity of cosmic rays over KIEL and MOSC stations was greater in 2004 and lower in 2003. This variation might be due to the ring current's asymmetry, which causes an enormous asymmetry in the storm-time cosmic-ray increase. The wavelet coherence transform shows a positive and negative correlation as well as cosmic ray lags with solar flares and coronal indices throughout different months of the 2003 and 2004 periods over both suggested stations. The results of cross correlation indicate that cosmic ray intensity is positively correlated with all geomagnetic indices. However, cosmic ray intensity was negatively associated with the Dst index during 2003 and 2004 over both suggested stations. Moreover, multi-resolution analysis and power spectral density (PSD) analysis are consistent with wavelet analysis. Using the PSD result, we have seen high-power wavelet regions during geomagnetically quiet months and low-power wavelets during disturbed months at a common frequency over both stations during 2003 and 2004.

Improved space weather observations and modeling for aviation radiation

In recent years there has been a growing interest from the aviation community for space weather radiation forecasts tailored to the needs of the aviation industry. In 2019 several space weather centers began issuing advisories for the International Civil Aviation Organization alerting users to enhancements in the radiation environment at aviation flight levels. Due to a lack of routine observations, radiation modeling is required to specify the dose rates experienced by flight crew and passengers. While mature models exist, support for key observational inputs and further modeling advancements are needed. Observational inputs required from the ground-based neutron monitor network must be financially supported for research studies and operations to ensure real-time data is available for forecast operations and actionable end user decision making. An improved understanding of the geomagnetic field is required to reduce dose rate uncertainties in regions close to the open/closed geomagnetic field boundary, important for flights such as those between the continental US and Europe which operate in this region. Airborne radiation measurements, which are crucial for model validation and improvement, are lacking, particularly during solar energetic particle events. New measurement campaigns must be carried out to ensure progress and in situ atmospheric radiation measurements made available for real-time situational awareness. Furthermore, solar energetic particle forecasting must be improved to move aviation radiation nowcasts to forecasts in order to meet customer requirements for longer lead times for planning and mitigation.

The Updated Version of the A.Ne.Mo.S. GLE Alert System: The Case of the Ground-Level Enhancement GLE73 on 28 October 2021

A ground-level enhancement (GLE) event is a sudden increase in cosmic ray intensity originated by solar sources and recorded by ground-based detectors. GLEs are invariably associated with large solar flares that can release and accelerate solar particles at high energies. The minimum kinetic energy of particles reaching the Earth’s surface is &gt;433 MeV at sea level and about 300 MeV/n at high-mountain altitude of about 3000 m a.s.l. Even though these abrupt events linked to solar activity are quite rare, they can have a great impact on technological systems and human health when recorded. Therefore, the accurate and effective prognosis of such events is of great importance. In this paper, an overview of the most recently recorded GLE event and the first of solar cycle 25, i.e., GLE73, as well as a post-event analysis is presented. GLE73 was detected on 28 October 2021 and was associated with the active region AR12887 on the central part of the solar disk, which produced an X1.0 solar flare. The event was registered by several stations of the worldwide ground-based neutron monitor network. An accurate alert was issued successfully by the ESA R-ESC federated product GLE Alert Plus, as well as the updated GLE Alert++ System of the Athens Neutron Monitor Station (A.Ne.Mo.S.). It should be emphasized that the GLE Alert++ signal by NKUA/A.Ne.Mo.S. was issued 45 min earlier than the one issued by GOES. A short description and the advantages of this last system are provided.

The relativistic solar particle event on 28 October 2021: Evidence of particle acceleration within and escape from the solar corona

Aims.We analyse particle, radio, and X-ray observations during the first relativistic proton event of solar cycle 25 detected on Earth. The aim is to gain insight into the relationship between relativistic solar particles detected in space and the processes of acceleration and propagation in solar eruptive events.Methods.To this end, we used ground-based neutron monitor measurements of relativistic nucleons and space-borne measurements of electrons with similar speed to determine the arrival times of the first particles at 1 AU and to infer their solar release times. We compared the release times with the time histories of non-thermal electrons in the solar atmosphere and their escape to interplanetary space, as traced by radio spectra and X-ray light curves and images.Results.Non-thermal electrons in the corona are found to be accelerated in different regions. Some are confined in closed magnetic structures expanding during the course of the event. Three episodes of electron escape to the interplanetary space are revealed by groups of decametric-to-kilometric type III bursts. The first group appears on the low-frequency side of a type II burst produced by a coronal shock wave. The two latter groups are accompanied at higher frequencies by bursts with rapid drifts to both lower and higher frequencies (forward- or reverse-drifting bursts). They are produced by electron beams that propagate both sunward and anti-sunward. The first relativistic electrons and nucleons observed near Earth are released with the third group of type III bursts, more than ten minutes after the first signatures of non-thermal electrons and of the formation of the shock wave in the corona. Although the eruptive active region is near the central meridian, several tens of degrees east of the footpoint of the nominal Parker spiral to the Earth, the kilometric spectrum of the type III bursts and the in situ detection of Langmuir waves demonstrate a direct magnetic connection between the L1 Lagrange point and the field lines onto which the electron beams are released at the Sun.Conclusions.We interpret the forward- and reverse-drifting radio bursts as evidence of reconnection between the closed expanding magnetic structures of an erupting flux rope and ambient open magnetic field lines. We discuss the origin of relativistic particles near the Earth across two scenarios: (1) acceleration at the CME-driven shock as it intercepts interplanetary magnetic field lines rooted in the western solar hemisphere and (2) an alternative where the relativistic particles are initially confined in the erupting magnetic fields and get access to the open field lines to the Earth through these reconnection events.

Diurnal anisotropy of polar neutron monitors: Dome C looks poleward

Galactic cosmic rays (GCR) exhibit a small local anisotropy observed as diurnal variability of ground-based neutron monitor (NM) count rates. Since the asymptotic directions of various NMs are different, their ability to observe the GCR diurnal variation also varies. Here we show that the Dome C (DOMC) NM is hardly sensitive to the diurnal variation, with its amplitude being 0.03%, in contrast to other polar NMs whose sensitivity to the diurnal variability ranges from 0.16 to 0.4%. We argue that this is related to the fact that DOMC NM has a narrow asymptotic-direction cone looking nearly to the South pole (geographic latitude above 75°). This makes the DOMC NM a unique detector being the only existing NM accepting cosmic-ray particles originating from the off-equatorial region. This is important for detailed studies of cosmic-ray transport in the vicinity of Earth, specifically for anisotropic solar energetic particle events.

Observations of Forbush Decreases of Cosmic-Ray Electrons and Positrons with the Dark Matter Particle Explorer

Abstract The Forbush decrease (FD) represents the rapid decrease of the intensities of charged particles accompanied with the coronal mass ejections or high-speed streams from coronal holes. It has been mainly explored with the ground-based neutron monitor network, which indirectly measures the integrated intensities of all species of cosmic rays by counting secondary neutrons produced from interaction between atmospheric atoms and cosmic rays. The space-based experiments can resolve the species of particles but the energy ranges are limited by the relatively small acceptances except for the most abundant particles like protons and helium. Therefore, the FD of cosmic-ray electrons and positrons have just been investigated by the PAMELA experiment in the low-energy range (&lt;5 GeV) with limited statistics. In this paper, we study the FD event that occurred in 2017 September with the electron and positron data recorded by the Dark Matter Particle Explorer. The evolution of the FDs from 2 GeV to 20 GeV with a time resolution of 6 hr are given. We observe two solar energetic particle events in the time profile of the intensity of cosmic rays, the earlier, and weaker, one has not been shown in the neutron monitor data. Furthermore, both the amplitude and recovery time of fluxes of electrons and positrons show clear energy dependence, which is important in probing the disturbances of the interplanetary environment by the coronal mass ejections.

Solar Activity and Cosmic Ray Variations in September 2017

The results are presented from an analysis of data on solar activity and cosmic ray variations observed in September 2017. This period is characterized by a sharp increase in the solar flare activity in the active region AR 12673 during the late descending phase of the 24th solar activity cycle. Solar protons are recorded by the particle instruments aboard the GOES-13 satellite, in the atmosphere, and by the ground-based neutron monitor network. A moderate Forbush decrease in the cosmic ray flux during September 6–10 is also recorded by a number of neutron monitors. Several solar proton energy spectra during September 10, 2017, (GLE72 event) are evaluated using the results from satellite measurements, balloon observations, and neutron monitor records.

Solar and nuclear physics uncertainties in cosmic-ray propagation

Recent data released by the AMS experiment on the primary spectra and secondary-to-primary ratios in cosmic rays (CRs) can pose tight constraints to astrophysical models of CR acceleration and transport in the Galaxy, thereby providing a robust baseline of the astrophysical background for dark matter search via antimatter. However, models of CR propagation are affected by other important sources of uncertainties, notably from solar modulation and nuclear fragmentation, that cannot be improved with the sole use of the AMS data. The present work is aimed at assessing these uncertainties and their relevance in the interpretation of the new AMS data on the boron-to-carbon (B/C) ratio. Uncertainties from solar modulation are estimated using improved models of CR transport in the Heliosphere constrained against various type of measurements: monthly-resolved CR data collected by balloon-born or space missions, interstellar flux data from the Voyager-1 spacecraft, and counting rates from ground-based neutron monitor detectors. Uncertainties from nuclear fragmentation are estimated using semiempirical cross-section formulae constrained by measurements on isotopically-resolved and charge-changing reactions. We found that a proper data-driven treatment of solar modulation can guarantee the desired level of precision, in comparison with the improved accuracy of the recent data on the B/C ratio. On the other hand, nuclear uncertainties represent a serious limiting factor over a wide energy range. We therefore stress the need for establishing a dedicated program of cross-section measurements at the $\mathcal{O}$(100 GeV) energy scale.

A Study of Heliospheric Modulation and Periodicities of Galactic Cosmic Rays During Cycle 24

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are energetic, charged particles coming from outside the solar system. These particles encounter an outward-moving turbulent solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuations when entering the heliosphere. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts detected by the ground-based neutron-monitor stations show intensity changes with a fluctuation of ∼ 11 years and are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with some time lags. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and are important components of space weather. The previous solar cycle, Cycle 23, has shown anomalous behavior with a prolonged deep minimum, which was characterized by a record-setting high Galactic cosmic-ray flux observed at Earth. Solar Cycle 24 started much later than expected and progressed sluggishly toward its maxima. In this paper, we study the heliospheric modulation and intermediate-term periodicities of GCRs during the ascending phase of Cycle 24. We utilize simultaneous solar, interplanetary plasma, magnetic field, and geomagnetic activity data including the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet, and we study their relation with GCRs. The wavelet power spectrum of GCRs exhibits the presence of a variety of prominent short- and mid-term periodicities including the well-known Rieger and quasi-biennial periodicities. Possible explanations of the observed results are discussed in the light of numerical models.

Analysis on H spectral shape during the early 2012 SEPs with the PAMELA experiment

The satellite-borne PAMELA experiment has been continuously collecting data since 2006. This apparatus is designed to study charged particles in the cosmic radiation. The combination of a permanent magnet, a silicon strip tracker and a silicon-tungsten imaging calorimeter, and the redundancy of instrumentation allow very precise studies on the physics of cosmic rays in a wide energy range and with high statistics. This makes PAMELA a very suitable instrument for Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) observations. Not only does it span the energy range between the ground-based neutron monitor data and the observations of SEPs from space, but PAMELA also carries out the first direct measurements of the composition for the highest energy SEP events, including those causing Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs). In particular, PAMELA has registered many SEP events during solar cycle 24, offering unique opportunities to address the question of high-energy SEP origin. A preliminary analysis on proton spectra behaviour during this event is presented in this work.

Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays During Solar Cycle 23

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) encounter an outward-moving solar wind with cyclic magnetic-field fluctuation and turbulence. This causes convection and diffusion in the heliosphere. The GCR counts from the ground-based neutron monitor stations show intensity changes that are anti-correlated with the sunspot numbers with a lag of a few months. GCRs experience various types of modulation from different solar activity features and influence space weather and the terrestrial climate. In this work, we investigate certain aspects of the GCR modulation at low cut-off rigidity (R c≈1 GV) in relation to some solar and geomagnetic indices for the entire solar cycle 23 (1996 – 2008). We separately study the GCR modulation during the ascending phase of cycle 23 including its maximum (1996 – 2002) and the descending phase including its minimum (2003 – 2008). We find that during the descending phase, the GCR recoveries are much faster than those of the solar parameters with negative time-lag. The results are discussed in light of modulation models, including drift effects and previous results.

Analysis of cosmic ray variations observed by the CARPET in association with solar flares in 2011-2012

The CARPET cosmic ray detector was installed on April 2006 at CASLEO (Complejo Astronmico El Leoncito) at the Argentinean Andes (31.8S, 69.3W, 2550 m, Rc=9.65 GV). This instrument was developed within an international cooperation between the Lebedev Physical Institute RAS (LPI; Russia), the Centro de Radio Astronomia e Astrofsica Mackenzie (CRAAM; Brazil) and the Complejo Astronmico el Leoncito (CASLEO; Argentina). In this paper we present results of analysis of cosmic ray variations recorded by the CARPET during increased solar flare activity in 2011-2012. Available solar and interplanetary medium observational data obtained onboard GOES, FERMI, ISS, as well as cosmic ray measurements by ground-based neutron monitor network were also used in the present analysis.

What Are Special About Ground-Level Events?

Ground level events (GLEs) occupy the high-energy end of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events. They are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares, but we still do not clearly understand the special conditions that produce these rare events. During Solar Cycle 23, a total of 16 GLEs were registered, using ground-based neutron monitor data. We first ask if these GLEs are clearly distinguishable from other SEP events observed from space. Setting aside possible difficulties in identifying all GLEs consistently, we then try to find observables which may unmistakably isolate these GLEs by studying the basic properties of the associated eruptions and the active regions (ARs) that produced them. It is found that neither the magnitudes of the CMEs and flares nor the complexities of the ARs give sufficient conditions for GLEs. It is possible to find CMEs, flares or ARs that are not associated with GLEs but that have more extreme properties than those associated with GLEs. We also try to evaluate the importance of magnetic field connection of the AR with Earth on the detection of GLEs and their onset times. Using the potential field source surface (PFSS) model, a half of the GLEs are found to be well-connected. However, the GLE onset time with respect to the onset of the associated flare and CME does not strongly depend on how well-connected the AR is. The GLE onset behavior may be largely determined by when and where the CME-driven shock develops. We could not relate the shocks responsible for the onsets of past GLEs with features in solar images, but the combined data from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) have the potential to change this for GLEs that may occur in the rising phase of Solar Cycle 24.

Cosmic ray modulation by different types of solar wind disturbances

Context. Solar wind disturbances such as interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) cause short-term cosmic ray depressions, generally denoted as Forbush decreases. Aims. We conduct a systematic statistical study of various aspects of Forbush decreases. The analysis provides empirical background for physical interpretations of short-term cosmic ray modulations. Methods. Firstly, we analyzed the effects of different types of solar wind disturbances, and secondly, we focused on the phenomenon of over-recovery (the return of the cosmic ray count to a value higher than the pre-decrease level). The analysis is based on groundbased neutron monitor data and the solar wind data recorded by the Advanced Composition Explorer. The correlations between various cosmic ray depressions and solar wind parameters as well as their statistical significance are analyzed in detail. In addition, we performed a normalized superposed epoch analysis for depressions and magnetic field enhancements. Results. The analysis revealed differences in the relationship between different solar wind disturbances and cosmic ray depression parameters. The amplitude of the depression for ICMEs was found to correlate well with the amplitudes of magnetic field strength and fluctuations, whereas for CIRs we found only the correlation between the amplitude of the depression and the solar wind disturbance dimension proxy vtB. Similar behavior was found for shock and no-shock events, respectively. The CIR/ICME composites show a specific behavior that is a mixture of both ICMEs and CIRs. For all analyzed categories we found that the duration of the depression correlates with the duration of the solar wind disturbance. The analysis of the over-recovery showed that there is no straightforward relationship to either “branching-effect” or geomagnetic effects, therefore we propose a scenario where the “branching-effect” is caused by several factors and is only indirectly related to the over-recovery.

The effect of cosmic rays on biological systems &amp;ndash; an investigation during GLE events

In this study, first direct and circumstantial ev- idences of the effects of cosmic rays (CR) on biological systems are presented. A direct evidence of biological ef- fects of CR is demonstrated in experiments with three cellu- lar lines growing in culture during three events of Ground Level Enhancement (GLEs) in the neutron count rate de- tected by ground-based neutron monitor in October 1989. Various phenomena associated with DNA lesion on the cel- lular level demonstrate coherent dynamics of radiation ef- fects in all cellular lines coincident with the time of arrival of high-energy solar particles to the near-Earth space and with the main peak in GLE. These results were obtained in the course of six separate experiments, with partial overlapping of the time of previous and subsequent experiments, which started and finished in the quiet period of solar activity (SA). A significant difference between the values of multinuclear cells in all cellular lines in the quiet period and during GLE events indicates that the cause of radiation effects in the cell cultures is an exposure of cells to the secondary solar CR near the Earth's surface. The circumstantial evidence was obtained by statistical analysis of cases of congenital mal- formations (CM) at two sites in the Murmansk region. The number of cases of all classes of CM reveals a significant correlation with the number of GLE events. The number of cases of CM with pronounced chromosomal abnormalities clearly correlates with the GLE events that occurred a year before the birth of a child. We have found a significant corre- lation between modulations of the water properties and daily background variations of CR intensity. We believe that the effects of CR on biological systems can be also mediated by fluctuations in water properties, considered as one of possi- ble mechanisms controlling the effects of CRs on biological systems.

On forecasting solar proton events using a ground-based neutron monitor

Results of applying the method developed for early warning about arrival of ∼10–100-MeV proton fluxes to the Earth after powerful eruptive events on the Sun, which uses the real time observable data received by the global network of ground-based neutron monitors (Mavromichalaki et al., 2009), are discussed. The retrospective analysis and comparison to the 2001–2006 observations indicate that more than 50% of solar proton events were omitted in such a forecasting method. For higher reliability, it is necessary to use additional data on the state of solar and heliospheric activity.