Gross Value Added Research Articles

A 3D index for measuring economic resilience with application to modern financial crises

AbstractThis paper proposes a vector index R composed of monotonous functions capturing three theoretical aspects (3D) of economic resilience (engineering, ecological, evolutionary) and performs an analysis of GDP data of 200 countries worldwide for the period 1960–2020 and 15 economic crises (shocks). The empirical analysis, first, reveals that economic resilience appears positively related to gross value added (GVA), employment, education, sectorial structure and diversification, agricultural production, tax revenue and natural resources, whereas it is negatively associated with urbanization degree, primary sector specialization and trade activity. Also, it shows that the global economy shifted to a less resilient performance through time, and it reveals the pros and cons of the continents' performance in economic resilience, highlighting a relative sensitivity of European countries against the available shocks and relatively higher resilience of Asian and African countries. Finally, the analysis of transition probabilities reveals the 2008 economic crisis as the only shock with significant transitions among different states of resilience, providing insights into the insignificant geographical scale of previous shocks in the global economy. Overall, in the complex conceptualization and measurement framework of economic resilience, the proposed 3D index contributes to a multilevel consideration of diverse theoretical aspects of this concept, provides empirical insights into the global economy's resilience and facilitates better management of economic resilience‘s computational complexity.

Demographic Change and Regional Specialisation: The Case of Greek NUTS II Regions

This paper investigates the impact of demographic changes on regional specialisation across Greek NUTS2 regions from 2001 to 2021. It explores the relationship between age-specific variations in the economically active population and gross value added (GVA) across different economic sectors. Using demographic and GVA data alongside spatial analysis techniques such as spatial regression models, median Local Moran’s I, and location quotient, the study identifies spatial autocorrelation patterns. Findings reveal strong correlations between the economically active population and GVA, highlighting demographic factors’ crucial role in regional economic performance. Over the period 2001 to 2021, the 15–24 and 25–34 age groups generally experienced declining growth rates in total, male, and female economically active populations, while the 45–54 and 55–64 age groups saw increases. Regions adjacent to those with higher economically active populations showed high–high clustering. Especially, Attiki and Kentriki Makedonia, the two metropolitan regions of Greece, influence neighbouring regions through economic spillover effects, fostering economic sector clustering and emphasising regional specialisation. These findings highlight the complex interplay between demographic shifts and regional economic outcomes, noting spatial disparities and the need for targeted policy interventions. The study provides empirical evidence demonstrating how demographic changes influence regional economic development across different regions.

Comparison of Cobb-Douglas Production Function with Deep Learning Models to Estimate the Productivity of Organised Manufacturing Sector - Indian Perspective

The production function defines the output of a firm, industry, or economy based on various combinations of inputs. This study focuses on estimating the production function of India's manufacturing sector and determining the relationship between its inputs and outputs. To predict the output, measured as Gross Value Added (GVA), the study applies the Cobb Douglas Production Function (CDPF) along with several deep learning techniques, including Feedforward, Recurrent, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bidirectional LSTM networks. Model performance is evaluated using metrics like Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the Cobb Douglas Production Function outperforms the deep learning models in predicting GVA for the organized manufacturing sector in India.

Globalisation and Performance of Manufacturing Sector in Punjab and Tamil Nadu: Implications for Employment and Wages

The present study is a comparative analysis of the performance of the organised manufacturing sector of Punjab and Tamil Nadu. The aggregate and the disaggregate picture reveals that globalisation-led growth of the manufacturing sector in Tamil Nadu has transformed its economy to a highly industrialised economy in Indian Union, and Punjab remained far behind in this context. However, the implications of the performance of the manufacturing sector on employment and wage share have shown common characteristics in both states. The increased capital intensity in the globalisation era has widened the gap between labour productivity and wage share in both states. Since 1991, the emoluments (capitalist share) have increased at a higher rate than the real wages. The decomposition analysis of wage share shows that the falling labour–capital ratio and increased contractualisation of the labour market are some of the important reasons behind the low growth of employment and fall in the wage share. Moreover, the disaggregated analysis reveals a secular increase in the use of capital per unit of labour in labour-intensive industries that has further reduced the employment elasticity of gross value added (GVA) in both states. It also highlights that regional heterogeneity plays an important role in the performance of a particular industry with respect to employment and wage share. JEL Codes: F60, J24, L60

Cropping systems and production assessment in southern Myanmar: Informing strategic interventions

Abstract Cropland expansion into natural forests in the Kyunsu Township, southern Myanmar, has diminished the sustainability of natural resources in this area. Analyzing local cropping systems can help explore options for improving land productivity on the existing croplands. To achieve this, a study was conducted between June 2020 and June 2021, involving 301 farmers’ households within the township. The study focused on socioeconomic status, crop production characteristics, key soil properties, and production constraints. Hierarchical clustering on principal components was applied to identify the existing cropping systems. Subsequently, a comparative analysis of variables between identified cropping systems was performed. The findings revealed that in the plantation zone, the median gross value added (GVA) reached US$ 1,276 ha−1 year−1 for perennial monocropping and US$ 1,715 ha−1 year−1 for perennial-multiple cropping. These values were higher than the median GVAs of perennial monocropping (US$ 460 ha−1 year−1) and perennial-multiple cropping (US$ 474 ha−1 year−1) in the sea zone. In the lowland and sea zones, annual monocropping of rice had low median GVAs of 206 and US$ 165 ha−1 year−1, respectively. The combination of rice and perennial species in the lowland zone resulted in a higher median GVA (US$ 383 ha−1 year−1) compared to rice sole cropping in both the lowland and sea zones. Coupled with favorable soil properties, cropping systems that integrated perennial species, particularly multiple cropping with strategic input use, demonstrated enhanced land productivity. However, to optimize land productivity in these cropping systems, it is crucial to address major constraints, such as high input prices, poor soil quality, and scarcity of freshwater.

A comparison study between the blue economy gross value added (GVA) in Baltic sea “EUSBSR” (Poland) and east Mediterranean sea(Egypt)

A comparison study between the blue economy gross value added (GVA) in Baltic sea “EUSBSR” (Poland) and east Mediterranean sea(Egypt)

Experience in Measuring Estimates of Russian GDP Dynamics Using Double Deflation Approach

When constructing estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) and gross value added (GVA) at constant prices, three approaches or a combination of them are used: extrapolation, simple deflation and double deflation. The latter approach is considered preferable, but is not yet used in Russian statistics. The article is devoted to the issues of constructing estimates of GDP and GVA dynamics for the Russian Federation using double deflation. The interest in constructing such estimates is due to the possibility of taking into account the dependence of production on domestic and import supplies, which the other two approaches lack. Received for the period from 2011 to 2016 estimates were compared with official indicators for the overall economy, the service sector, and for mining and manufacturing.From 2011 to 2016 alternative estimates of the physical volume indices of GDP and GVA showed lower growth rates compared to official indicators. This is due to the faster growth of alternative estimates of intermediate consumption compared to official ones. In the structure of intermediate consumption, domestic intermediate products were replacing imported analogues. The current dynamics of indicators, to a first approximation, shows signs of localization of production, which may be associated with the transition of enterprises to domestic outsourcing and the implementation of an import substitution policy.At the same time, the presence of measurement problems in the use of double deflation is obvious, most clearly manifested when moving to the analysis of indicators of lower levels of aggregation. The analysis shows in favor of conducting additional research related to the introduction of the double deflation technique in the official methodology.

The Effects of Structural Transformation of the Indian Economy on the Land Use Pattern

Due to high density of population the per capita availability of land in India is comparatively less than the rest of the world. As a result, issues concerning the effective and efficient use of scarce land resources are becoming increasingly important in the Indian context. Importance of agriculture in the economy has been declining in terms of the sector’s share in GDP. On the other hand, the importance of the service sector is rapidly growing. Urbanisation has also increased significantly. Given these trends, it is quite possible that the land-use pattern in India has also been changing over the years in response to the structural changes that its economy has been going through. With this possibility in mind, the paper aims to examine whether changes in sectoral composition of the economy are reflected in the country’s land use pattern also. Further, it explores if changes in the sectoral land shares have any correspondence with comparative sectoral land productivity trends. Data on Gross Value Added (GVA) and Land -Use Pattern, accessed from relevant websites of the Government of India have first been processed by computing ratios and percentage, and drawing trend lines. Further, econometric methods have been used to estimate annual compound growth rates. Results show that agriculture has been able to sustain overall growth, including an increase in food-grain production, despite stagnations in its land share. Non-agricultural sectors have been able to claim increasing shares of land from the reduction of barren, unculturable, and cultivable wastelands. But the important point to note here is that the land-share of non-agriculture has been increasing not at the expense of agriculture but from progressively bringing to use lands which were previously not under any economic use. This is a positive development in economic use of the country’s limited land resource.

Left-behind places in central and eastern Europe—labour productivity aspect

Abstract In the 21st century, there have already been a series of economic downturns, particularly the Subprime Crisis 2007–2009 and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. All those events triggered changes in productivity, economic performance and structure. The main objective of this study is to identify the regions left behind in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and to analyse the structural and productivity changes taking place within them. In our analysis, we aim to verify the research hypothesis that all left-behind regions in CEE have similar economic structures with a high share of agriculture. The research period covers the years from 2010 until 2020 using data from the Eurostat database. In the first phase of our analysis, we analysed employment, Gross Value Added (GVA) and productivity data for 11 CEE countries. Then, we analysed the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics at level 3 (NUTS3) regions, and Poland, which is a NUTS2 region. Left-behind regions are defined as those with low productivity and low growth rates. We provide a detailed analysis of the best and worst performing regions in terms of productivity for each country using productivity data and shift-share decomposition of productivity growth rate. Left-behind regions for each CEE country have been identified, and these are BG333, BG342, CZ080, EE004, HR023, HU332, LT027, LV005, PL72, RO216, RO312, SI032, SI035, SI038 and SK032. In our analysis, our hypothesis analysing the relationship between agriculture share in total employment and the productivity level of the region was not confirmed.

Efficiency of Production Factors Concerning the Gross Value Added in Bulgaria

Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) oriented to input resources under variable returns to scale, the efficiency of production factors by administrative-territorial areas of Bulgaria as of 2021 in terms of gross value added (GVA) has been assessed. It is established that the factors of production are used effectively in only five of the 28 districts of Bulgaria. These efficiency regions are Vratsa, Gabrovo, Sofia, Sofia (capital) and Stara Zagora. The average value of the efficiency coefficient is 0.8178 and shows that the produced GVA in Bulgaria in 2021 should be achieved on average with 18.22% less production factors than the used ones – costs for acquiring fixed assets and employed persons. In connection with the latter, it is rational to direct production factors toward economic activities in which there are competitive advantages and potential for development on the territory of the respective area.

Analyzing the effectiveness of tourist flows based on the assessment of tourism's contribution to the regional economy

Subject. The article investigates the effectiveness of tourist flows. Objectives. The aim is to study the problem of assessing the effectiveness of tourism, considering the existing economic potential, the volume of tourist flows, achievements and challenges in the domestic tourism development for effective and efficient management of the industry. Methods. We employed methods of systems, comparative, logical, and statistical analysis. Results. We devised a methodology to calculate the specific value added and analyzed it for Russia’s regions. The findings can be used to monitor the level of tourism development and elaborate strategic planning documents for domestic tourism development in regions. Conclusions. The existing methodology for calculating the tourism industry contribution to the economy of regions makes it possible to use its indicators as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of the tourist flow based on specific gross value added (GVA) of the tourism industry by region. Our calculations show that there is a significant variation in the specific GVA of the tourism industry in the subjects of the Russian Federation, due to the peculiarities of the methodology and differences in the economic and climatic development of the regions. The analysis of the obtained specific GVA of the tourism industry enables to highlight several groups of regions to determine the possible size and direction of tourist flows, taking into account their economic efficiency. The findings may be helpful for formulating recommendations to evaluate the effectiveness of tourism development, when regional and federal strategic planning documents are elaborated.

Relationship of Payment Statistics and Sector-Wise Gross Value Added in the Indian Economy: A Regression Analysis Approach

Purpose: To explore the impact of payment statistics on sector-wise gross value added (GVA) in the Indian economy. Theoretical framework: Payment statistics are a measure of the volume and value of payments made in an economy. They are an important indicator of economic activity, as they reflect the flow of goods and services between buyers and sellers. GVA is a measure of the total value of goods and services produced in an economy, after subtracting the cost of intermediate inputs. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study uses regression analysis to examine the relationship between payment statistics and sector-wise GVA in India from 2011 to 2022. Findings: The study finds that payment statistics exhibit a significant influence on major sector-wise GVA during the specified period. Originality/Value: The study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between payment statistics and sector-wise GVA in India.

Assessment of socioeconomic and ecosystem services of the blue economy in Tanzania using the UNECA's Blue Economy Valuation Toolkit

Even though Tanzania has been engaging in domestic and international sea-based economic activities for centuries, there are no specific statistical data on the contribution of the blue economy to the Tanzania’s economy reinforcing the importance of this work. The purpose of this paper is to present economic, social, and ecosystem values that the blue economy resources generate in mainland Tanzania by using the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) Blue Economy Valuation Toolkit (BEVTK). In 2020 the major blue economy industries in Tanzanian contributed USD 7.2 billion to the gross value added (GVA) and employed over 2 million individuals. The value of ecosystem services was approximately USD 104.24 billion in the year 2020, with large permanent freshwater lakes contributing significantly (74.87%). The Composite Social Index Value of BE was estimated at 48.64, indicating that the blue economy contributes positively to the social development of mainland Tanzania. Among the negative outcomes of social indicators, the BEVTK generated a youth unemployment (12.2%) and a gender inequality index (53.0). The BEVTK presented here can be applied to another country context where decision-makers have similar interests in assessing the blue economy components and their contribution to the national economy.

An Analysis on Performance of Mango Production in India

Horticulture has become major role in Indian agriculture as it contributes 33 per cent towards Gross Value Added (GVA) of agriculture by enhancing farmers’ income and providing rural employment which is a pathway for rural development. Fruits and vegetable crops share major production (nearly 90%) of horticulture in India. Among fruits, Mango is the most important fruit crop in Indian Economy. India is the leader in mango production (20772 thousand MT) during 2021-22, which accounts for more than 40 per cent of global mango production. Hence, the present study analyses the production performance of mango in India based on secondary data from 1991-92 to 2021-22 for area, production and productivity of mango and of major mango producing states in India. The components like trend, growth rate and instability analysis were used in this study. The increasing trend and positive growth rate were noticed in area and production of mango in the nation as a whole which is a good sign. However, productivity had shown declining trend, negative growth rate and higher instability over the years which need to be addressed by high density planting, replacing old orchards having less productivity trees by high yielding mango varieties with high market demand and so on. Hence, there should be more focus on productivity to improve its growth rate and reduce instability which will eventually improve the mango production since area showed high positive growth rate and low instability. The study also identifies the states showing increasing trend, positive growth and low instability in area, production and productivity which is a good sign for mango cultivation. However, states showing declining trend, negative growth rate and high instability in above mentioned parameters which need to be focused and for which researchers deserve deeds.

The impact of public banks on municipalities: a study of the bank of Pará

This study examines the influence of the State Bank of Pará, a development bank, on the socioeconomic growth of municipalities in the State of Pará, Brazil. Unlike commercial banks that often reduce their branch network, Banpará has expanded its presence in almost all municipalities. Using spatial econometrics and impact assessment methodologies, the study measures the impact of Banpará branches on these municipalities. The results demonstrate a positive effect contributing to higher gross value added (GVA) in the services sector and public administration of Pará. Additionally, municipalities that established a Banpará branch between 2010 and 2019 exhibited positive results in salaries and production. These findings highlight the critical role of development banks in prioritizing socioeconomic development and fostering inclusive growth.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION AGING ON LOCAL HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE: A 22-YEAR PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

The purpose of this study is to examine the implications of population aging on local health expenditures in South Africa. A balanced panel of annually observed observations from South Africa over the period of 22 years (1995–2017) was used. The study used gross domestic product (GDP), health expenditure, labor force, and age structure as control variables and pooled OLS, fixed effect, and random effect tests to estimate the relationships among the variables. The results show that the old-age dependency ratio, gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rate, and gross value added (GVA) are all explanatory variables that are related to healthcare spending and are shown as a base model in the pooled OLS. The results indicate that healthcare expenditure and the old-age dependency ratio have a positive relationship in South Africa. Considering the implications for policy, this study suggests that the South African economy should account for the aging population when policies are designed and that the government should make an effort to improve the healthcare system in order to meet the demands of elderly people.

Impact of Macroeconomic Determinants on Economic Growth in India: An Empirical Assessment

The impact of macroeconomic determinants on Indian economic growth measured by GVA is the foundation of this study. There are some factors that affect foreign direct investments. It consists of the country's political stability, trade openness, inflation rate, economic stability, investment policies, rules and regulations imposed on exchange rates, and foreign reserves. Additionally, foreign direct investments both increase trade and provide financial aid. Foreign direct investments have helped the Indian economy's balance of payment issues. This paper's main goal is to examine how macroeconomic factors affect the expansion of the Indian economy. FDI Inflows (FDI), Consumer Price Index (Inflation Rate), Foreign Exchange Rate with US$, and Gross Value Added (GVA) are used as the study's variables. The influence of the study’s variable on the Indian economy is examined using simple regression and Pearson's correlation approaches. The study is based on secondary data gathered from 2005 to 2020 via the World Bank website and RBI DBIE database. According to the empirical findings, there is a strong correlation between GVA and Exchange Rate with US$ and CPI, whereas the moderate correlation between FDI and GVA exists which is important for the expansion of the Indian economy.

The impact of Fit for 55 on Ireland’s maritime transport sector and the macroeconomy

AbstractThe European Green Deal aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 and achieve a carbon neutral economy by 2050. The ‘Fit for 55 package’ includes a suite of new regulations and taxes to promote Renewable and Low Carbon Fuels (RLFs) in the maritime transport sector. We use a Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) to forecast the impact of higher marine fuel prices during the transition to RLFs on Ireland’s maritime transport sector and the broader Irish economy. Our analysis finds that higher marine fuel prices are expected to reduce Gross Value Added (GVA) in the maritime transport sector by nearly 8% by 2050, relative to a “no-policy-change” baseline. Our results indicate that fuel price increases will not have a material impact on overall economic activity. The negative impact on real output is projected to range from 0.09% in 2025 to 1.21% in 2050. The projected decline in real exports ranges from 0.17% in 2025 to 2.29% in 2050, while consumer prices will increase from 0.13% in 2025 to 1.72% in 2050.

Growth of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in India and its Role in Indian Economy

Through business innovations, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have made major contributions to the expansion of entrepreneurial endeavors. MSMEs are expanding their sphere of influence across the economy, generating a diversified range of products and services to fulfil the needs of both domestic and international markets. MSMEs are contributing to the national production, employment & exports and, economic development of the country. The present paper aimed to determine the growth of MSMEs in India and its role in Indian economy. The data of present research paper was collected by exhaustive literature survey through electronic database at Web of Science, MSME online site, Annual reports of GOI, PubMed, Scopus, Science direct etc. According to statistics from the Central Statistics Office (CSO), M/o Statistics & Programme Implementation. With 630.52 lakh estimated MSMEs companies in India, the micro sector accounts for more than 99 percent of all MSMEs. The small sector, with 3.31 lakh (accounts 0.52%)estimated MSMEs, and the medium sector, with 0.05 lakh(accounts 0.01%) estimated MSMEs, respectively, of total estimated MSMEs. 324.88 lakh MSMEs (51.25 percent) are in rural areas, whereas 309 lakh MSMEs (48.75 percent) are in urban areas, according to the estimated number of MSMEs.The contribution of the MSME sector to the country's Gross Value Added (GVA) has grown from 10.97 % in FY 2015-2016 to 12.88 in FY 2018-2019 respectively.Further the share of MSMEs in all India GDP was 29.34% in FY 2014-2015, and in year FY 2018-2019 it has grown to 30.27%. MSMEs are expanding their sphere of influence across the economy, generating a diversified range of products and services to fulfil the needs of both domestic and international markets.

Under the Veil of Uncertainty: Assessing the Greek Economy’s Resilience and Vulnerability in the Face of Different Uncertainty Types

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of uncertainty on sectoral gross value-added (GVA) in the Greek economy, using quarterly data from 1998 to 2022. Analyzing nine types of uncertainty using established indexes, including economic uncertainty and economic, fiscal, monetary, currency, banking, pension, tax, and debt policy uncertainty, the study aims to identify vulnerable and resilient sectors and provide policy recommendations for transforming the Greek economy. The findings contribute to understanding how uncertainty affects different sectors and offer insights into the relationship between uncertainty and sectoral GVA. The study highlights that each sector experiences distinct effects depending on the uncertainty type, with varying impact durations. The “real estate” sector is particularly susceptible to negative impacts, while the “professional, scientific, and technical activities sector, administrative and supportive activities,” the “construction,” and the “wholesale/retail trade” sectors demonstrate high sensitivity to uncertainty shocks. The currency policy and debt policy uncertainty indexes have the most adverse effects on sectoral GVA. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers in pursuing economic stability and growth.