Under the Veil of Uncertainty: Assessing the Greek Economy’s Resilience and Vulnerability in the Face of Different Uncertainty Types

Abstract

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of uncertainty on sectoral gross value-added (GVA) in the Greek economy, using quarterly data from 1998 to 2022. Analyzing nine types of uncertainty using established indexes, including economic uncertainty and economic, fiscal, monetary, currency, banking, pension, tax, and debt policy uncertainty, the study aims to identify vulnerable and resilient sectors and provide policy recommendations for transforming the Greek economy. The findings contribute to understanding how uncertainty affects different sectors and offer insights into the relationship between uncertainty and sectoral GVA. The study highlights that each sector experiences distinct effects depending on the uncertainty type, with varying impact durations. The “real estate” sector is particularly susceptible to negative impacts, while the “professional, scientific, and technical activities sector, administrative and supportive activities,” the “construction,” and the “wholesale/retail trade” sectors demonstrate high sensitivity to uncertainty shocks. The currency policy and debt policy uncertainty indexes have the most adverse effects on sectoral GVA. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers in pursuing economic stability and growth.