Gross Regional Domestic Product Research Articles

Analyzing the Impact of the Pandemic on Indonesia’s Economic Growth Using Dynamic Time Warping

Asia’s GDP experienced the most drastic decline during the COVID-19 compared to other economic crises. This study collected data on economic indicators for each province/city to observe economic growth in Indonesia, such as Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), unemployment rate, and economic growth. The clustering method on time series data found several provinces/cities with similar economic growth patterns to observe the pandemic's impact on their economies. Knowing the pattern of economic growth will help the regulation holder support provinces with the right policy. For this purpose, we utilized the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance with the k-medoids procedure. The DTW is an algorithm for measuring the similarity between two temporal sequences. The clustering of the three economic indicators had three clusters with the most optimal validation index. Each cluster had almost the same pattern since the trend tended to increase from before the pandemic and then decrease during the pandemic. The decrease in GRDP was less significant than the minimal data on GRDP that happened before the pandemic. Most provinces had negative economic growth during the pandemic, which skyrocketed even for the first quarter of 2023, almost the same as before the pandemic.

Environmental and Economic Clustering of Indonesian Provinces: Insights from K-Means Analysis

Indonesia's archipelago presents a distinctive opportunity for targeted sustainable development due to its complex interplay of economic advancement and environmental challenges. To better understand this dynamic and identify potential areas for focused intervention, this study applied K-means clustering to 2022 data on the Air Quality Index (AQI), electricity consumption, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The analysis aimed to delineate the provinces into three distinct clusters, providing a clearer picture of the varying levels of economic development and environmental impact across the nation's diverse islands. Each cluster reflects specific environmental and economic dynamics, suggesting tailored policy interventions. The results show that for provinces in Cluster 1, which exhibit moderate environmental quality and lower economic activity, the introduction of sustainable agricultural enhancements, eco-tourism, and renewable energy initiatives is recommended. Cluster 2, marked by higher economic outputs and moderate environmental conditions, would benefit from the implementation of smart urban planning, stricter environmental controls, and the adoption of clean technologies. Finally, Cluster 3, which includes highly urbanized areas with robust economic growth, requires expanded green infrastructure, improved sustainable urban practices, and enhanced public transportation systems. These recommendations aim to foster balanced economic growth while preserving environmental integrity across Indonesia’s diverse landscapes.

ANALISIS PENGARUH JUMLAH PENDUDUK, PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO (PDRB), INFLASI DAN JUMLAH TENAGA KERJA TERHADAP PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH (PAD) KOTA MALANG TAHUN 2012-2021

This study aims to determine the effect of total population, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and total employment to Region Own-Source Revenue (PAD) in 2012-2021. This study used qualitative approach and literature review method. The data were obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics and the annual financial reports of Malang City through the official website which can be accessed by the public. The results of this study indicated that the variables of total population, inflation and total employment do not have a significant influence on Region Own-Source Revenue (PAD). However, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP) has a positive and significant influence on Region Own-Source Revenue (PAD). Meanwhile, total population, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and total employment have a simultaneous influence of 96,4% on Region Own-Source Revenue (PAD).

ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE OF UNEMPLOYMENT VARIABLES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN USING THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) APPROACH

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of unemployment variables on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) by employing the Error Correction Model methodology. This research is conducted in Central Kalimantan from 2012 to 2023. According to the cointegration testing findings using the ECM approach, the probability of the unemployment variable is 0.3788, which is greater than the significance level of 0.05. There is a lack of cointegration or long-term balance relationship between the variables, which means that testing cannot be conducted over an extended period of time. The ECM test findings indicate that there is no significant short-term impact of the unemployment variable on GRDP in Central Kalimantan. This is supported by the probability value of the unemployment variable, which is 0.2660, above the threshold of 0.05. According to the classical assumption test, there are no signs of autocorrelation in the research model. Additionally, the Jarque Berra probability value of 0.764092 is greater than 0.05, indicating that there are no signs of heteroscedasticity. Therefore, the research model can be considered normally distributed.

Understanding the mediating role of perceived risk in the relationship between price, product quality, and copra repurchase intention in North Maluku province

This study aims to examine the relationship between perceived risk, price, and product quality as it pertains to the intention to repurchase copra in North Maluku Province. Coconut meat, commonly known as copra, is the raw material for making crude coconut oil. Apart from being a superior commodity and contributing greatly to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of North Maluku Province from the agricultural sector, this product has experienced a decline in purchases since 2022 until now. We used a quantitative method based on SEM analysis, with a sample size of 120 respondents. The primary data collection technique used was a questionnaire. While this study did find a significant relationship between product quality and perceived risk and between perceived risk and repurchase intention, it did not find a significant relationship between price and repurchase intention or product quality and repurchase intention directly. Concurrently, there is full mediation in the indirect influence of product quality on repurchase intention; that is, perceived risk is a key component of the relationship between product quality and repurchase intention. If buyers feel that there is a low risk associated with product quality, they will be more likely to consider repeat purchases. Perceived risk can include financial, operational, and reputational risks associated with poor-quality products.

Assessment of Climate Change-Induced Water Scarcity Risk by Using a Coupled System Dynamics and Bayesian Network Modeling Approaches

The water scarcity risk induced by climate change is contributing to a sequence of hydrological and socioeconomic impacts. Certain numbers of related impacts are locked in already and are expected to be much greater in the future. So, there is still a lack of understanding of its dynamics, origin, propagation, and the mutual interaction of its drivers. In recent years, several model-based approaches have been introduced to tackle the complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty of water scarcity specifically. However, the coupled modeling while addressing different aspects of the risk of water scarcity under the climate change scenarios has been rarely done. For bridging this gap, in this research, the combination of complementary System Dynamics modeling and Bayesian Network was applied to Qazvin Plain in Iran with five AOGCM models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (126 and 585). Key findings of this research show: 1) Baseline risk assessment indicates a low probability of water scarcity; however, in the future 30-year time horizon with continuous change in hazard, vulnerability, and exposure for SSP126, the risk fell in the extreme category with an average probability of 41%. Under SSP585, the risk varies between extreme and high categories with an average probability of 47%. 2) Economic development, particularly regional gross domestic product (RGDP) in 2045–2054 in SSP585 can diminish the negative projected consequences of climate change and therefore investments in adaptation policies could offset negative consequences, highlighting the role of economic growth in climate resilience. 3) It is projected that crop yield and income will receive the largest negative effects due to cutting back the agriculture area. 4) Considering the interplay of climate change, economic development, and water extraction policies is essential for the design, operation, and management of water-related activities. The proposed integrated methodology provides a comprehensive framework for understanding climate change-induced water scarcity risks, their drivers, and potential consequences. This approach facilitates adaptive decision-making to address the evolving challenges posed by climate change.

Perkembangan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) Jawa Barat dan Korelasinya dengan Tenaga Kerja, Inflasi, dan Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Sektor Pertanian Jawa Barat

This research aims to identify the developments of Farmer Exchange Rate (FER) in the West Java Agricultural Sector in the period 2000-2022. This paper analyzes the extent of the correlation between Agricultural Sector Labor, the Inflation Rate variables, and the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Agricultural Sector on the FER in the in West Java. The correlation identification between these variables was analyzed through Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation analysis based on West Java FER. The FER data is obtained from the Farmer Exchange Rate Statistics published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The research results show: a) There are variations in the FER value during the period 2005-2022 with an average of 103.99; b) The West Java Agricultural Sector Labor variable has a moderate positive linear correlation with West Java's FER; c) The West Java Agricultural Sector variable GRDP has weak negative linear correlation with West Java's FER; and d) The West Java inflation variable has a weak positive linear correlation with West Java's FER.

Determinants of Local Revenue in West Nusa Tenggara Province

The economic growth of a region can be seen from the contribution of increasing regional original income originating from sources of taxes, regional levies, regional property and other separated regional wealth management results, and other legitimate regional revenues. The Province of West Nusa Tenggara in the last few decades has shown a significant increase in local revenue. In this study, the impact of population, inflation, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on local revenue from 2010 to 2021 is explored. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique uses district or city annual data in a quantitative panel data regression model for the study. According to the findings of statistical studies, local own-source revenue is significantly positively affected by government spending, population, and gross regional product (GDP), but inflation-related price increases have a negligible impact on local revenue. The money supply determines the rate of inflation, the high rate of inflation is caused by the amount of money in circulation.

An Analysis of Leading Sectors in Sleman District

This research endeavors to ascertain the preeminent sectors within Sleman Regency during the timeframe spanning 2018 to 2022. Additionally, the study aims to discern the sectors that constitute the primary focal points for economic development within Sleman Regency, situated in the Yogyakarta Special Region Province. Secondary data, acquired from the Central Statistics Agency, is employed in this investigation, utilizing a documentary study method centered on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) at Constant Basic Prices categorized by Field of Business in Sleman Regency and Yogyakarta Special Region Province for the years 2018-2022. The sample comprises 17 economic sectors contributing to the composition of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in Sleman Regency and Yogyakarta Special Region Province. To analyze the preeminent sectors, the research employs the Location Quotient, Shift Share, and Klassen Typology calculation approaches. The findings reveal that the leading sectors in Sleman Regency encompass the Manufacturing Industry, Real Estate, Corporate Services, and Educational Services sectors.

Determinan Tingkat Kemiskinan Di Indonesia

Poverty is a problem in the development process in most countries, especially in developing countries such as Indonesia. Analyzing the factors that influence poverty is important in formulating effective and targeted policies. This study aims to analyze the independent variables of village funds, unemployment rate, human development index (HDI), and gross regional domestic product (GRDP) affecting the dependent variable of the number of poor people in Indonesia in 2022. The study used the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to analyze cross-section data from 34 provinces in Indonesia in 2022. The results show that village funds and GRDP have a significant positive influence on the number of poor people, but HDI and unemployment rate do not have a significant influence. The findings make a significant contribution to understanding the factors that contribute to the poverty rate in Indonesia, as well as providing a basis for formulating more effective development policies to reduce the poverty rate in the future.

Analysis of the Capability, Effectiveness, and Independence of Regional Financial on Gross Regional Domestic Products and Poverty in East Kalimantan

The purpose of this research is to examine and identify the direct impact of regional financial capacity, efficiency, and autonomy on the gross regional domestic product in East Kalimantan. Analyze the immediate impact of the region's financial capacity, efficacy, and independence on poverty in East Kalimantan. Examine the direct impact of the gross regional domestic product on poverty rates in East Kalimantan. analyze and evaluate how East Kalimantan's gross regional domestic product mediates the indirect effects of a region's financial capacity, effectiveness, and independence on poverty. This study employs a descriptive correlational design with a cross-sectional method. Panel data were collected from ten districts and cities between 2018 and 2022 using a time series approach. Methods for gathering data through the evaluation of literary works. Data analysis using route analysis, which incorporates multiple linear regression, in the context of economic modeling. The study's findings indicate that the region's financial capabilities have a direct and considerable impact on the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in East Kalimantan. On the other hand, the impact of regional financial effectiveness on GRDP in East Kalimantan is both positive and statistically insignificant. Similarly, regional financial independence has a direct but statistically minor impact on East Kalimantan's Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The number of financial resources and the effectiveness of financial operations at the regional level have a direct and considerable impact on poverty rates in East Kalimantan. In contrast, establishing financial independence in a specific area has a big and detrimental impact on poverty in East Kalimantan. The Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) has a substantial impact on poverty levels in East Kalimantan. The competence, effectiveness, and independence of regional finances have an impact on the Gross Regional Domestic Product, which in turn affects the relationship between regional finances and poverty in East Kalimantan.

REGIONAL AND INTRA-REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF MUSI RAWAS UTARA DISTRICT AS AN OIL PALM PRODUCING REGION IN SUMATRA SELATAN PROVINCE

This research aimed to identify the key economic sectors that could uplift Musi Rawas Utara Regency from its underdeveloped status within Sumatra Selatan Province. The study employed a descriptive-analytical approach, which included analyzing primary sectors using the Location Quotient (LQ) method, determining leading sectors through Shift Share analysis, and assessing the contribution of the primary highest-value industry using Intra-Regional analysis. Among the 17 sectors contributing to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), five were identified as primary sectors in Musi Rawas Utara Regency, with a significant dominance of the Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries sectors. However, Shift Share analysis revealed two leading sectors: education and health services with social activities. We identified seven potential sectors: industrial, infrastructure, and developing sectors. Developing sectors include agriculture, forestry, fisheries, mining and quarrying, and education. Meanwhile, five sectors were considered underdeveloped: the processing industry, construction, transportation and trade, financial services and insurance, government administration, defense, and taxpayer social security. LQ analysis emphasized that the agricultural and forestry sector is the primary sector in Musi Rawas Utara Regency, with palm oil production being a vital contributor. For the development of palm oil, Nibung and Karang Dapo districts require particular attention. Given Musi Rawas Utara Regency's disadvantaged status, optimizing agricultural sector development is crucial. By focusing on this sector, the region can enhance its economic performance, ultimately aiming to overcome its underdeveloped status and improve its financial outlook.

Analysis of the Influence of Education, Health, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on Poverty in Central Maluku Regency

This thesis aims to analyze the influence of education, health, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) on the poverty level in Central Maluku Regency, both partially and simultaneously related to the Social Welfare Program. The research employs a conceptual framework consisting of three main dimensions: education, health, and GRDP. Through quantitative and qualitative approaches, the impact of education on poverty is elaborated, the role of health in reducing the poverty rate is investigated, and the relationship between GRDP and poverty levels is explored in depth. The research methods used include primary and secondary data collection, statistical analysis, and interviews with local stakeholders. The research results are expected to provide a holistic insight into the factors contributing to poverty in Central Maluku Regency. The results of this study illustrate that education, health, and GRDP variables partially influence poverty in Central Maluku Regency. This can be seen from the probability values of each variable, which are less than 0.01 %. This research is expected to provide conceptual and practical contributions to poverty alleviation efforts at the local level. Policy implications are expected to guide strategic steps to improve education, health, and economic growth to reduce poverty levels in this region. In conclusion, this thesis contributes to a better understanding of the complexity of poverty issues in Central Maluku Regency and provides a basis for the development of more effective intervention strategies to address these challenges.

Pengaruh Kepadatan Penduduk Terhadap Produk Domestik Regional Bruto (PDRB) Per Kapita Provinsi Jawa Barat Tahun 2022

This study delves into the correlation between population density and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in West Java Province during 2022. Employing a quantitative approach, the analysis utilizes pertinent statistical data from the West Java Province Central Statistics Agency. Employing a descriptive correlational design, this research employs a simple linear regression method to scrutinize the relationship between population density and GRDP. The analysis findings reveal a feeble connection between population density and GRDP, with population density exerting a mere 2.7% influence on GRDP. These findings underscore the role of other factors such as Human Resources (HR), Natural Resources (NR), and regional topography in determining the GRDP level of a region.

The Influence of Regional Original Income, Capital Expenditures and Labor Force Participation Levels on Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in Districts/Cities of West Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB) in 2018-2022

This research analyzes the influence of Regional Original Income (PAD), Capital Expenditures, and Labor Force Participation Level (TPAK) on the Growth of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in the Districts/Cities of Nusa Tenggara Barat Province (NTB). Data was collected from October 2023 to January 2024 and analyzed using a quantitative approach and panel data regression. The results show that PAD has a positive and significant influence on GRDP, while Capital Expenditure and TPAK are not significant. The implication is that regional governments need to optimize policies and use of capital expenditure to support GRDP growth. In addition, efforts are needed to increase labor force participation in order to make a more significant contribution to regional economic growth. This research provides insight for policy makers and stakeholders regarding the factors that influence economic growth in NTB.

IMPLEMENTASI FUZZY MAMDANI DALAM KLASIFIKASI WILAYAH DI PROVINSI JAWA BARAT BERDASARKAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO

Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) is an important indicator for measuring the economic condition of a province, district or city. In general, the economy in West Java in 2022 will experience growth of 4.61%. The economic growth of each region in West Java is of course different. This study aims to determine the classification of regions in West Java based on GRDP per capita at constant prices by district/city in 2022 and data on the growth rate of GRDP on the basis of constant prices by district/city in 2022 using Fuzzy Mamdani. The results showed that there were 6 regions which were developed region group. These areas include Purwakarta Regency, Karawang Regency, Bekasi Regency, Bandung City, Cirebon City, and Cimahi City. There were 5 regions which were underdeveloped region group. These areas include Tasikmalaya Regency, Subang Regency, Cirebon Regency, Indramayu Regency, and Banjar City. Other areas were developing regions group. These areas include Bogor Regency, Sukabumi Regency, Cianjur Regency, Bandung Regency, Garut Regency, West Bandung Regency, Pangandaran Regency, Ciamis Regency, Kuningan Regency, Majalengka Regency, Sumedang Regency, Bogor City, Sukabumi City, Bekasi City, Kota Depok, and Tasikmalaya City.

MODELING FACTORS AFFECTING EDUCATED UNEMPLOYMENT ON JAVA ISLAND USING GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED POISSON REGRESSION MODEL

The eighth goal of the SDGs, which aim to promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all, addresses the problem of unemployment. Indonesia, the fourth-largest country in the world, keeps on dealing with unemployment and its negative consequences. Three provinces on the island of Java have higher unemployment rates for educated people than any other provinces. The purpose of this study is to examine the variables affecting educated unemployment in Java. This study uses cross-sectional data published from BPS-Statistics Indonesia website and the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) for 119 regencies/cities across six provinces on Java Island in 2021. The predictor variables are Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), investment, labor force participation rate, mean years of schooling, regency/city minimum wage, and inflation. The number of working-age population is used as an exposure measure. Four models were used to analyze the factors affecting educated unemployment on Java Island: Poisson regression model and Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) model, both with and without an exposure. Based on the smallest AIC/AICc, the best model is the GWPR model with an exposure. This model creates 11 groups of locations based on the same predictor variables that significantly affect educated unemployment

Impact of economic growth, village funds, and poverty on human development in Indonesia: An analytical study from 2015 to 2022

This study evaluates how a country's development of human resources, an important measure of economic and policy progress, is affected by various factors. It focuses on the impact of Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), village funds, and poverty levels on the Human Development Index (HDI) across 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2015 to 2022. The aim is to enhance understanding of how promoting human development goes beyond just economic growth, highlighting the importance of addressing poverty and empowering local communities through measures like the Village Fund. By employing panel regression methods, including both static (POLS, FEM, and REM) and dynamic (FMOLS and DOLS) approaches, the study examines the influence of economic growth, village funds, and poverty on human development. The findings from static panel analysis indicate that while economic growth has a negative and significant effect on HDI, village funds positively and significantly influence it. As expected, poverty significantly and negatively affects HDI. Dynamic panel data confirms the positive and significant effect of village funds on HDI and, consistent with static analysis, shows poverty's negative impact. The implications of this research are threefold: First, it suggests that economic expansion might negatively affect HDI. Second, it highlights the importance of village funds in developing human resources, underscoring their role in provincial development financing strategies. Third, it recommends that provincial policymakers focus on reducing poverty to prevent it from hindering human development.

The effect of economic growth and poverty on stunting in Indonesia

Stunting is a critical issue affecting children under five years old, characterized by inadequate growth due to chronic malnutrition and recurrent infections, especially during the crucial first 1,000 days of life (from age 0 to 23 months). Stunting impacts not only height but also vital functions such as brain development and the immune system, potentially leading to decreased intelligence levels and increased susceptibility to diseases later in life. This study examines the impact of the growth of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors and the level of rural poverty on stunting in Indonesia. This research, which covers time series data from 2015-2020 across 32 provinces in Indonesia, employs a panel data regression model analysis method. The findings indicate that primary sector GRDP growth has a positive effect, whereas secondary sector GRDP negatively impacts stunting. However, the tertiary sector GRDP and rural poverty do not significantly affect stunting rates in Indonesia.

Pengaruh Belanja Pemerintah Bidang Pendidikan, Kesehatan dan PDRB Terhadap IPM di Provinsi Jawa Tengah (Studi Kasus 35 Kab/kota Provinsi Jawa Tengah)

The current focus of development is more on human development. Through improving the quality of human resources, it can improve social welfare and state development. For this reason, the government is trying to improve the quality of human development through budget allocations in the health and education sectors which continue to increase every year. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of government spending on education, health, and gross regional domestic products (GRDP) on the human development index in 35 districts/cities of Central Java province in 2014-2019. The type of data used is secondary data in 35 districts/cities in Central Java from 2014-2019. The analysis method used in this research is panel data regression using Fixed Effect Model (FEM) with Generalized Least Square (GLS) weighting. The results in this study are the health spending and GRDP variables have no significant effect on HDI, while the education spending variable has a significant effect on HDI.