Gross Primary Production Models Research Articles

Effects of Aerosols on Gross Primary Production from Ecosystems to the Globe

Aerosols affect the gross primary productivity (GPP) of plants by absorbing and scattering solar radiation. However, it is still an open question whether and to what extent the effects of aerosol on the diffuse fraction (Df) can enhance GPP globally. We quantified the aerosol diffuse fertilization effect (DFE) and incorporated it into a light use efficiency (LUE) model, EC-LUE. The new model is driven by aerosol optical depth (AOD) data and is referred to as AOD-LUE. The eddy correlation variance (EC) of the FLUXNET2015 dataset was used to calibrate and validate the model. The results showed that the newly developed AOD-LUE model improved the performance in simulating GPP across all ecosystem types (R2 from 0.6 to 0.68), with the highest performance for mixed forest (average R2 from 0.71 to 0.77) and evergreen broadleaf forest (average R2 from 0.34 to 0.45). The maximum LUE of diffuse photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) (3.61 g C m−2 MJ−1) was larger than that of direct PAR (1.68 g C m−2 MJ−1) through parameter optimization, indicating that the aerosol DFE seriously affects the estimation of GPP, and the separation of diffuse PAR and direct PAR in the GPP model is necessary. In addition, we used AOD-LUE to quantify the impact of aerosol on GPP. Specifically, aerosols impaired GPP in closed shrub (CSH) by 6.45% but enhanced the GPP of grassland (GRA) and deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) by 3.19% and 2.63%, respectively. Our study stresses the importance of understanding aerosol-radiation interactions and incorporating aerosol effects into regional and global GPP models.

Improved estimation of global gross primary productivity during 1981–2020 using the optimized P model

Accurate estimation of terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is essential for quantifying the net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and biosphere. Light use efficiency (LUE) models are widely used to estimate GPP at different spatial scales. However, difficulties in proper determination of maximum LUE (LUEmax) and downregulation of LUEmax into actual LUE result in uncertainties in GPP estimated by LUE models. The recently developed P model, as a LUE-like model, captures the deep mechanism of photosynthesis and simplifies parameterization. Site level studies have proved the outperformance of P model over LUE models. However, the global application of the P model is still lacking. Thus, the effectiveness of 5 water stress factors integrated into the P model was compared. The optimal P model was used to generate a new long-term (1981–2020) global monthly GPP dataset at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1°, called PGPP. Validation at globally distributed 109 FLUXNET sites indicated that PGPP is better than three widely-used GPP products. R2 between PGPP and observed GPP equals to 0.75, the corresponding root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) equal to 1.77 g C m−2 d−1 and 1.28 g C m−2 d−1. During the period from 1981 to 2020, PGPP significantly increased in 69.02% of global vegetated regions (p < 0.05). Overall, PGPP provides a new GPP product choice for global ecology studies and the comparison of various water stress factors provides a new idea for the improvement of GPP model in the future.

Analysis on the relationship between sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and gross primary productivity of winter wheat in northern China

The sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is directly related to the photosynthesis of winter wheat and has a good linear relationship with the gross primary production (GPP). However, the relationship of SIF and GPP is still uncertain under different soil water content conditions. The sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, GPP and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) are the three ways of photosynthetically active radiation in plants. The photochemical reflectance index (PRI) can be used as a proxy indicator of NPQ to characterize the change in heat dissipation during photosynthesis process of winter wheat. To detect the impact of soil water content on winter wheat photosynthesis and SIF and GPP relationship, based on the ground measurement data at Zhaoxian Experimental Station in northern China during the growing season in 2018 and the simulated data by the SCOPE model, we use PRI to improve the GPP model estimated by SIF. The results indicate that: (1) PRI is sensitive to soil water content (R2 = 0.64), so it can be used to improve the estimation of GPP based on SIF under different soil water conditions; (2) For the ground measurement data, PRIobv can improve the estimation accuracy of GPPobv by SIFobv. Under different soil water content (SWC) conditions, the relationship between GPPobv and SIFobv is significantly correlated (R2 = 0.33–0.45, p < 0.01), and PRIobv can be used to improve the estimation between GPPobv and SIFobv (R2 = 0.57–0.62, p < 0.01); (3) The simulation results of the SCOPE model show that the simulation effect of the model can be better optimized by adding PRI under the condition of relatively dry soil (△R2 = 0.13–0.17). Our research suggests that PRI can be added when estimating GPP using SIF information, especially when winter wheat is under low soil water content conditions.

Modeling Carbon Uptake of Dryland Maize Using High Resolution Satellite Imagery

Quantifying carbon uptake or gross primary production (GPP) from agroecosystems is important for understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon fixation by crops. The availability of high-resolution remote sensing data can significantly improve GPP estimation of small-scale agricultural fields. Multispectral satellite data with 3-m spatial resolution and frequent global coverage are available from the PlanetScope network of satellites. However, this data remains largely unexplored for studying the carbon dynamics of agroecosystems. The overarching goal of this study was to develop a simple empirical method for quantifying the GPP of dryland maize (Zea mays L.) using remotely sensed vegetation indices along with in-situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation and leaf area index by linking it with carbon uptake data from an eddy covariance flux tower. Four vegetation indices were investigated: the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), the weighted difference vegetation index (WDVI), and the two-band enhanced vegetation index (EVI2). This study was conducted over a three-year period from 2017 to 2019 in East-Central Texas. A total of 12 GPP prediction models were developed using individual yearly data and were used for predicting GPP of the other 2 years. Predicted maize GPP values were then compared against tower-based GPP. The NDVI models were the least successful in predicting GPP and had the highest root mean square error (average: 10.1 3 gC m−2; maximum: 26.3 gC m−2). Models based on SAVI performed especially well with error ranging from 0.05 to 0.94 gC m−2. The slope of the regression between SAVI-based estimated GPP and measured GPP was not different from 1.0 in all combinations of years. The success of the SAVI-based GPP models for predicting dryland maize carbon uptake indicates that it was the least affected vegetation index by changing soil background condition in this row cropping system.

Interannual variation of gross primary production detected from optimal convolutional neural network at multi‐timescale water stress

AbstractSpatiotemporal patterns of water stress caused by global warming has significantly affected gross primary productivity (GPP). However, its impact is hard to capture as the water stress of different timescales simultaneously influence GPP through the effects of time lag and legacy. As a result, synthetically considering the roles of water stress in the current year and previous years in GPP is very important for accurate modeling of GPP. In this study, we introduced the water stress indicators of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at different timescales, GPP observations from global flux network and the remote sensing‐based indexes to models of convolutional neural network (CNN). We built the optimal CNN model which effectively simulated the spatial patterns of GPP and detected their trends in interannual variation. The findings were as follows: (1) The CNN model with introduction of multi‐timescale SPEIs that reflect both current and previous years' water conditions improved the accuracy of modeled GPP. This result indicated that although GPP is most sensitive to current water conditions, it is also clearly affected by previous years' water conditions. (2) The optimal CNN model that considered previous years' water conditions not only aptly simulated the spatial distribution of GPP, but also showed advantages in simulating the interannual fluctuations of GPP and its response to drought. Ignoring the previous water conditions will underestimate the interannual fluctuations of GPP and the impact of drought on GPP.

Inter-comparisons of mean, trend and interannual variability of global terrestrial gross primary production retrieved from remote sensing approach

Many models were established to estimate gross primary production (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems based on vegetation light use efficiency (LUE). Analysing the spatial-temporal variations of global terrestrial GPP became capable with the increasing length of satellite data. Previous studies mainly focused on evaluating the model performance or investigating the mean, the temporal trend or the interannual variability (IAV) of global terrestrial GPP based on one single or multiple models, which is difficult to identify common merits of a same cluster of GPP models. This study compared eight satellite-based LEU-type GPP models in capturing the mean, temporal trend and IAV of global GPP concurrently. Our results showed that current common-used models based on LUE methodology estimated global mean GPP ranging from 128.5 to 158.3 Pg C year−1, and global mean IAV ranging from 0.1 to 0.35, but the trends ranging from −0.22 to 0.51 Pg C year−1. In the context of plant functional types (PFTs) and climate classifications, no consistent feature for either of the mean, trend or IAV of GPP are identified among eight models. Future studies should integrate the latest advances on the mechanisms and associated environmental factors into models and consolidate performance of models to better understand the evolutions of terrestrial ecosystem functioning.

Resolving temperature limitation on spring productivity in an evergreen conifer forest using a model–data fusion framework

Abstract. The flow of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems and the response to climate are critical but highly uncertain processes in the global carbon cycle. However, with a rapidly expanding array of in situ and satellite data, there is an opportunity to improve our mechanistic understanding of the carbon (C) cycle's response to land use and climate change. Uncertainty in temperature limitation on productivity poses a significant challenge to predicting the response of ecosystem carbon fluxes to a changing climate. Here we diagnose and quantitatively resolve environmental limitations on the growing-season onset of gross primary production (GPP) using nearly 2 decades of meteorological and C flux data (2000–2018) at a subalpine evergreen forest in Colorado, USA. We implement the CARbon DAta-MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) model–data fusion network to resolve the temperature sensitivity of spring GPP. To capture a GPP temperature limitation – a critical component of the integrated sensitivity of GPP to temperature – we introduced a cold-temperature scaling function in CARDAMOM to regulate photosynthetic productivity. We found that GPP was gradually inhibited at temperatures below 6.0 ∘C (±2.6 ∘C) and completely inhibited below −7.1 ∘C (±1.1 ∘C). The addition of this scaling factor improved the model's ability to replicate spring GPP at interannual and decadal timescales (r=0.88), relative to the nominal CARDAMOM configuration (r=0.47), and improved spring GPP model predictability outside of the data assimilation training period (r=0.88). While cold-temperature limitation has an important influence on spring GPP, it does not have a significant impact on integrated growing-season GPP, revealing that other environmental controls, such as precipitation, play a more important role in annual productivity. This study highlights growing-season onset temperature as a key limiting factor for spring growth in winter-dormant evergreen forests, which is critical in understanding future responses to climate change.

Thermally derived evapotranspiration from the Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC) model improves cropland GPP estimates under dry conditions

Satellite-based gross primary productivity (GPP) monitoring in croplands is challenging due to our limited ability to empirically constrain photosynthetic capacity and associated parameters. Here, we investigated if integrating land surface temperature (TR)-based evapotranspiration (ET) or latent heat flux (λE) into a Remote sensing-driven approach to Coupling Ecosystem Evapotranspiration and Photosynthesis (RCEEP) model, which is modified from the underlying water use efficiency method, can better characterize GPP under dry conditions as compared to the light use efficiency (LUE)-based models. We developed the new GPP model, termed STIC-RCEEP, by combining an ET model, called STIC (Surface Temperature Initiated Closure), and RCEEP. We compared the performance of STIC-RCEEP against four conventional LUE-based models (Vegetation Photosynthesis Model, MOD17, STIC-MOD17, STIC-LUE), using tower-based daily GPP data from different cropland flux sites across the globe. An evaluation of the five GPP models, all optimized using available 170 site-years data from the 22 flux sites, revealed the relatively better performance of the STIC-RCEEP (R2 = 0.78 and RMSE = 2.5 gC m−2 d−1) with respect to the other four LUE models. Error analysis revealed substantially less error of STIC-RCEEP particularly under the dry conditions and RMSE of STIC-RCEEP was 9%–14% less than the other models. This finding highlights the enhanced ability of thermal sensors to capture the water stress signals in ET and GPP, which is also evidenced by the substantially better performance of STIC than another widely-regarded non-thermal ET model (the Priestly Taylor - Jet Propulsion Laboratory model), under dry conditions. The improved GPP estimates from STIC-RCEEP under water-stressed environment opens avenues for further research and applications using existing and new TR-based sensors in coupled crop water use-productivity modeling.

Ecosystem Photosynthesis in Land‐Surface Models: A First‐Principles Approach Incorporating Acclimation

AbstractVegetation regulates land‐atmosphere, water, and energy exchanges and is an essential component of land‐surface models (LSMs). However, LSMs have been handicapped by assumptions that equate acclimated photosynthetic responses to the environment with the fast responses observable in the laboratory. The effects of acclimation can be taken into account by including PFT‐specific values of photosynthetic parameters, but at the cost of increasing parameter requirements. Here, we develop an alternative approach for including acclimation in LSMs by adopting the P model, an existing light‐use efficiency model for gross primary production (GPP) that implicitly predicts the acclimation of photosynthetic parameters on a weekly to monthly timescale via optimality principles. We demonstrate that it is possible to explicitly separate the fast and slow photosynthetic responses to environmental conditions, allowing the simulation of GPP at the sub‐daily timesteps required for coupling in an LSM. The resulting model reproduces the diurnal cycles of GPP recorded by eddy‐covariance flux towers in a temperate grassland and boreal, temperate and tropical forests. The best performance is achieved when biochemical capacities are adjusted to match recent midday conditions. Comparison between this model and the operational LSM in the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts climate model shows that the new model has better predictive power in most of the sites and years analyzed, particularly in summer and autumn. Our analyses suggest a simple and parameter‐sparse method to include both instantaneous and acclimated responses within an LSM framework, with potential applications in weather, climate, and carbon‐cycle modeling.

Climate Drives Modeled Forest Carbon Cycling Resistance and Resilience in the Upper Great Lakes Region, USA.

Forests dominate the global terrestrial carbon budget, but their ability to continue doing so in the face of a changing climate is uncertain. A key uncertainty is how forests will respond to (resistance) and recover from (resilience) rising levels of disturbance of varying intensities. This knowledge gap can optimally be addressed by integrating manipulative field experiments with ecophysiological modeling. We used the Ecosystem Demography‐2.2 (ED‐2.2) model to project carbon fluxes for a northern temperate deciduous forest subjected to a real‐world disturbance severity manipulation experiment. ED‐2.2 was run for 150 years, starting from near bare ground in 1900 (approximating the clear‐cut conditions at the time), and subjected to three disturbance treatments under an ensemble of climate conditions. Both disturbance severity and climate strongly affected carbon fluxes such as gross primary production (GPP), and interacted with one another. We then calculated resistance and resilience, two dimensions of ecosystem stability. Modeled GPP exhibited a two‐fold decrease in mean resistance across disturbance severities of 45%, 65%, and 85% mortality; conversely, resilience increased by a factor of two with increasing disturbance severity. This pattern held for net primary production and net ecosystem production, indicating a trade‐off in which greater initial declines were followed by faster recovery. Notably, however, heterotrophic respiration responded more slowly to disturbance, and it's highly variable response was affected by different drivers. This work provides insight into how future conditions might affect the functional stability of mature forests in this region under ongoing climate change and changing disturbance regimes.

Effect of the Partitioning of Diffuse and Direct APAR on GPP Estimation

Accurate estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) is necessary to better understand the interaction of global terrestrial ecosystems with climate change and human activities. Light use efficiency (LUE)-based GPP models are widely used for retrieving several GPP products with various temporal and spatial resolutions. However, most LUE-based models assume a clear-sky condition, and the influence of diffuse radiation on GPP estimations has not been well considered. In this paper, a diffuse and direct (DDA) absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR)-based method is proposed for better estimation of half-hourly GPP, which partitions APAR under diffuse and direct radiation conditions. Firstly, energy balance residual (EBR) FAPAR, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) (MCD15A2H) and clumping index (CI) products, as well as solar radiation records supplied by FLUXNET2015 were used to calculate diffuse and direct APAR at a half-hourly scale. Then, an eddy covariance-LUE (EC-LUE) model and meteorological observations from FLUXNET2015 data sets were used for obtaining corresponding LUE values. A co-variation relationship between LUE and diffuse fraction was observed, and the LUE was higher under more diffuse radiation conditions. Finally, the DDA-based method was tested using the half-hourly FLUXNET GPP and compared with half-hourly GPP calculated using total APAR (GPP_TA). The results indicated that the half-hourly GPP estimated using the DDA-based method (GPP_DDA) was more accurate, giving higher R2 values, lower RMSE and RMSE* values (R2 varied from 0.565 to 0.682, RMSE ranged from 3.219 to 12.405 and RMSE* were within the range of 2.785 to 8.395) than the GPP_TA (R2 varied from 0.558 to 0.653, RMSE ranged from 3.407 to 13.081 and RMSE* were within the range of 3.321 to 9.625) across FLUXNET sites within different vegetation types. This study explored the effects of partitioning the diffuse and direct APAR on half-hourly GPP estimations, which demonstrates a higher agreement with FLUXNET GPP than total APAR-based GPP.

Site Characteristics Mediate the Relationship Between Forest Productivity and Satellite Measured Solar Induced Fluorescence

Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) can provide key information about the state of photosynthesis and offers the prospect of defining remote sensing-based estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP). There is strong theoretical support for the link between SIF and GPP and this relationship has been empirically demonstrated using ground-based, airborne, and satellite-based SIF observations, as well as modeling. However, most evaluations have been based on monthly and annual scales, yet the GPP:SIF relations can be strongly influenced by both vegetation structure and physiology. At the monthly timescales, the structural response often dominates but short-term physiological variations can strongly impact the GPP:SIF relations. Here, we test how well SIF can predict the inter-daily variation of GPP during the growing season and under stress conditions, while taking into account the local effect of sites and abiotic conditions. We compare the accuracy of GPP predictions from SIF at different timescales (half-hourly, daily, and weekly), while evaluating effect of adding environmental variables to the relationship. We utilize observations for years 2018–2019 at 31 mid-latitudes, forested, eddy covariance (EC) flux sites in North America and Europe and use TROPOMI satellite data for SIF. Our results show that SIF is a good predictor of GPP, when accounting for inter-site variation, probably due to differences in canopy structure. Seasonally averaged leaf area index, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and canopy conductance provide a predictor to the site-level effect. We show that fPAR is the main factor driving errors in the linear model at high temporal resolution. Adding water stress indicators, namely canopy conductance, to a multi-linear SIF-based GPP model provides the best improvement in the model precision at the three considered timescales, showing the importance of accounting for water stress in GPP predictions, independent of the SIF signal. SIF is a promising predictor for GPP among other remote sensing variables, but more focus should be placed on including canopy structure, and water stress effects in the relationship, especially when considering intra-seasonal, and inter- and intra-daily resolutions.

Comparing Three Remotely Sensed Approaches for Simulating Gross Primary Productivity over Mountainous Watersheds: A Case Study in the Wanglang National Nature Reserve, China

Light Use Efficiency (LUE), Vegetation Index (VI)-based, and process-based models are the main approaches for spatially continuous gross primary productivity (GPP) estimation. However, most current GPP models overlook the effects of topography on the vegetation photosynthesis process. Based on the structures of a two-leaf LUE model (TL-LUE), a VI-based model (temperature and greenness, TG), and a process-based model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS), three models, named mountain TL-LUE (MTL-LUE), mountain TG (MTG), and BEPS-TerrainLab, have been proposed to improve GPP estimation over mountainous areas. The GPP estimates from the three mountain models have been proven to align more closely with tower-based GPP than those from the original models at the site scale, but their abilities to characterize the spatial variation of GPP at the watershed scale are not yet known. In this work, the GPP estimates from three LUE models (i.e., MOD17, TL-LUE, and MTL-LUE), two VI-based models (i.e., TG and MTG), and two process-based models (i.e., BEPS and BEPS-TerrainLab) were compared for a mountainous watershed. At the watershed scale, the annual GPP estimates from MTL-LUE, MTG, and BTL were found to have a higher spatial variation than those from the original models (increasing the spatial coefficient of variation by 6%, 8%, and 22%), highlighting that incorporating topographic information into GPP models might improve understanding of the high spatial heterogeneity of the vegetation photosynthesis process over mountainous areas. Obvious discrepancies were also observed in the GPP estimates from MTL-LUE, MTG, and BTL, with determination coefficients ranging from 0.02–0.29 and root mean square errors ranging from 399–821 gC m−2yr−1. These GPP discrepancies mainly stem from the different (1) structures of original LUE, VI, and process models, (2) assumptions associated with the effects of topography on photosynthesis, (3) input data, and (4) values of sensitive parameters. Our study highlights the importance of considering surface topography when modeling GPP over mountainous areas, and suggests that more attention should be given to the discrepancy of GPP estimates from different models.

A practical topographic correction method for improving Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer gross primary productivity estimation over mountainous areas

Time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gross primary productivity (GPP) has been served as an effective tool to assess the terrestrial carbon budget for the entire globe since 2000. However, the current MODIS GPP product neglects the surface heterogeneity in the modeling process and is always generated at 500 m or 1 km resolution, which could cause errors to these estimates over mountainous areas. In this work, the MODIS GPP model (MOD17) was applied to obtain 1 km GPP estimates at eleven mountainous sites. Then, a topographic correction method based on three indexes associated with the spatial heterogeneity of received radiation (TCIAPAR), temperature (TCITMIN), and water (TCIVPD) stresses was developed to reduce GPP errors in these MOD17-simulated estimates. Results showed that a closer relationship between tower-based GPP and MOD17-simulated GPP was achieved after applying the proposed topographic correction method, with the determination coefficient (R2) increased from 0.61 to 0.74 and root mean square error (RMSE) reduced from 24.24 to 14.56 gC m−2 8d−1 at all the eleven mountainous sites. As for the effectiveness of each topographic correction index, an obvious improvement of MOD17-simulated GPP was observed after TCIAPAR correction (increasing R2 by 0.09 and decreasing RMSE by 8.75 gC m−2 8d−1), TCITMIN correction (increasing R2 by 0.05 and decreasing RMSE by 7.80 gC m−2 8d−1), and TCIVPD correction (increasing R2 by 0.06 and decreasing RMSE by 7.89 gC m−2 8d−1), indicating that the spatial heterogeneity information of radiation, temperature, and water within coarse pixels is necessary for improving the MODIS GPP over mountainous areas. It is notable that the combination of the TCIAPAR, TCITMIN, and TCIVPD corrections was found to have the largest improvement for MOD17-simulated GPP (increasing R2 by 0.13 and decreasing RMSE by 9.68 gC m−2 8d−1), indicating that the combined consideration of topographic factors in the correction process might achieve a larger improvement. This study highlights the feasibility of incorporating surface topographic characteristics into current coarse resolution GPP products in obtaining large-scale mountain GPP estimates.

Dynamic global vegetation models underestimate net CO2 flux mean and inter-annual variability in dryland ecosystems

Despite their sparse vegetation, dryland regions exert a huge influence over global biogeochemical cycles because they cover more than 40% of the world surface (Schimel 2010 Science 327 418–9). It is thought that drylands dominate the inter-annual variability (IAV) and long-term trend in the global carbon (C) cycle (Poulter et al 2014 Nature 509 600–3, Ahlstrom et al 2015 Science 348 895–9, Zhang et al 2018 Glob. Change Biol. 24 3954–68). Projections of the global land C sink therefore rely on accurate representation of dryland C cycle processes; however, the dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) used in future projections have rarely been evaluated against dryland C flux data. Here, we carried out an evaluation of 14 DGVMs (TRENDY v7) against net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data from 12 dryland flux sites in the southwestern US encompassing a range of ecosystem types (forests, shrub- and grasslands). We find that all the models underestimate both mean annual C uptake/release as well as the magnitude of NEE IAV, suggesting that improvements in representing dryland regions may improve global C cycle projections. Across all models, the sensitivity and timing of ecosystem C uptake to plant available moisture was at fault. Spring biases in gross primary production (GPP) dominate the underestimate of mean annual NEE, whereas models’ lack of GPP response to water availability in both spring and summer monsoon are responsible for inability to capture NEE IAV. Errors in GPP moisture sensitivity at high elevation forested sites were more prominent during the spring, while errors at the low elevation shrub and grass-dominated sites were more important during the monsoon. We propose a range of hypotheses for why model GPP does not respond sufficiently to changing water availability that can serve as a guide for future dryland DGVM developments. Our analysis suggests that improvements in modeling C cycle processes across more than a quarter of the Earth’s land surface could be achieved by addressing the moisture sensitivity of dryland C uptake.

Identifying the dominant climate-driven uncertainties in modeling gross primary productivity

Accurate simulation of gross primary productivity (GPP) is essential for estimating the global carbon budget. However, GPP modeling is subject to various sources of uncertainties, among which the impacts of biases in climate forcing data have not been well quantified. Here, using a well-validated vegetation model, we compare site-level simulations using either ground-based meteorology or assimilated reanalyses to identify climate-driven uncertainties in the predicted GPP at 91 FLUXNET sites. Simulations yield the lowest root mean square errors (RMSE) in GPP relative to observations when all site-level meteorology and CO2 concentrations are used. Sensitivity tests conducted with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis (MERRA) reanalyses increase GPP RMSE by 30%. Replacement of site-level CO2 with global annual average values provides limited contributions to these changes. In contrast, GPP uncertainties increase almost linearly with the biases in meteorology. Among all factors, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), especially diffuse PAR, plays dominant roles in modulating GPP uncertainties. Simulations using all MERRA forcings but with site-level diffuse PAR help reduce over 50% of the climate-driven biases in GPP. Our study reveals that biases in meteorological forcings, especially the variabilities at diurnal to seasonal time scales, can induce significant uncertainties in the simulated GPP at FLUXET sites. We suggest cautions in simulating global GPP using climate reanalyses for dynamic global vegetation models and urgent improvements in climatic variability in reanalyses data, especially for diffuse radiation.

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

Modelling the influence of incident radiation on the SIF-based GPP estimation for maize

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been shown to be an ideal indicator of vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), but the variation in the ratio of the photosynthetic light use efficiency (LUE = GPP/APAR) to the total SIF quantum yield (SIFyield = SIFtotal/APAR) is an important source of uncertainty in SIF‒GPP models. Incident radiation is one of the key factors influencing LUE and SIFyield. In this study, to investigate the influence of PAR on LUE and SIFyield, pulse-amplitude-modulated (PAM) fluorometry was carried out at the leaf level along with tower-based continuous SIF‒GPP measurements at the canopy level for maize. LUE was found to decrease as PAR increased, following a hyperbolic function, at both the leaf level (R2 = 0.978) and canopy level (R2 = 0.460 for half-hourly averaged dataset; R2 = 0.341 for daily averaged dataset). However, the variation of SIFyield with PAR was found to be very small. By integrating the influence of PAR on LUE, the GPP estimation model based on the red band and near-infrared (NIR) band SIF for maize became more linear. For both the half-hourly and daily datasets, the values of R2 for the SIF-GPP model increased (e.g. from 0.573 to 0.718 for the half-hourly NIR band SIF), and the RMSE for the estimated GPP reduced (e.g. from 8.30 to 6.75 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1 for the half-hourly NIR band SIF). These results highlight that the ratio of LUE to SIFyield is an important source of uncertainty in SIF‒GPP models and should be carefully corrected. The results also show that PAR is a key factor influencing this ratio. This PAR-based LUE model can be integrated not only in SIF‒GPP models but also in other LUE-related GPP estimation models for unstressed maize.

The Impacts of Climate and Wildfire on Ecosystem Gross Primary Productivity in Alaska

AbstractThe increase in wildfire occurrence and severity seen over the past decades in the boreal and Arctic biomes is expected to continue in the future in response to rapid climate change in this region. Recent studies documented positive trends in gross primary productivity (GPP) for Arctic boreal biomes driven by warming, but it is unclear how GPP trends are affected by wildfires. Here, we used satellite vegetation observations and environmental data with a diagnostic GPP model to analyze recovery from large fires in Alaska over the period 2000–2019. We confirmed earlier findings that warmer‐than‐average years provide favorable climate conditions for vegetation growth, leading to a GPP increase of 1 Tg C yr−1, contributed mainly from enhanced productivity in the early growing season. However, higher temperatures increase the risk of wildfire occurrence leading to direct carbon loss over a period of 1–3 years. While mortality related to severe wildfires reduce ecosystem productivity, post‐fire productivity in moderately burned areas shows a significant positive trend. The rapid GPP recovery following fires reported here might be favorable for maintaining the region's net carbon sink, but wildfires can indirectly promote the release of long‐term stored carbon in the permafrost. With the projected increase in severity and frequency of wildfires in the future, we expect a reduction of GPP and therefore amplification of climate warming in this region.

A pigment ratio index based on remotely sensed reflectance provides the potential for universal gross primary production estimation

Gross primary production (GPP) estimation usually involves a priori assumptions about biome-specific rules or climate controls, which hampers an objective analysis of driving mechanisms. Observation-based methods that are biome-invariant and globally uniform are thus highly desirable. To facilitate this, a reflectance index representing the ratio of chlorophyll to total pigments (R chl) was proposed to consider the variation of energy conversion efficiency driven by different pigment contents in the canopy. Experiments based on simulated reflectance spectra showed that R chl could explain over 83% of chlorophyll ratio dynamics. A model was then developed which approximates GPP as the product of R chl, the normalized difference vegetation index, the near-infrared reflectance, and the photosynthetically active radiation. The model is simple, fast, with definite physical meaning and independent of climatic parameters such as temperature and humidity. Validated with over one hundred thousand field measurements, the model exhibited comparable accuracy to biome- and climate-based GPP models (r = 0.74 for both types of models), demonstrating satisfactory performance. It also achieved significantly better results compared with a regression model excluding R chl, which emphasizes the important role of R chl. By avoiding circular analyses in mechanism studies on GPP variations, this model may extend our previous understanding of global terrestrial carbon uptake.