Gridded Datasets Research Articles

A Simple Method of Coupled Merging and Downscaling for Multi-Source Daily Precipitation Data

High accuracy and a high spatiotemporal resolution of precipitation are essential for the hydrological, ecological, and environmental fields. However, the existing daily gridded precipitation datasets, such as remote sensing products, are limited both by the coarse resolution and the low accuracy. Despite considerable efforts having been invested in downscaling or merging, a method of coupled and simultaneously downscaling and merging multiple datasets is currently lacking, which limits the wide application of individual popular satellite precipitation products. For the first time, in this study, we propose a simple coupled merging and downscaling (CMD) method for simultaneously obtaining multiple high-resolution and high-accuracy daily precipitation datasets. A pixel-repeated decomposition method was first proposed, and the random forest (RF) method was then applied to merge multiple daily precipitation datasets. The individual downscaled dataset was obtained by multiplying the result of merging by an explanatory rate obtained by RF. The results showed that the CMD method exhibited significantly better performance compared with the original datasets, with the mean absolute error (MAE) improving by up to 50%, the majority of the values of bias ranging between −1 mm and 1 mm, and the majority of the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) values being greater than 0.7. CMD was more accurate than the widely used dataset, Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), with a 43% reduction in the MAE and a 245% improvement in the KGE. In addition, the long-term estimation suggested that the proposed method exhibits stable good performance over time.

Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) can help to improve the understanding of climate-induced cryospheric–hydrological impacts in complex mountain regions, such as High Mountain Asia (HMA). Coarse ESM grids, however, have difficulties in representing cryospheric–hydrological processes that vary over short distances in complex mountainous environments. Variable-resolution (VR) ESMs can help to overcome these limitations through targeted grid refinement. This study investigates the ability of the VR Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables such as the glacier surface mass balance (SMB) over HMA. To this end, a new VR grid is generated, with a regional grid refinement up to 7 km over HMA. Two coupled atmosphere–land simulations are run for the period 1979–1998. The second simulation is performed with an updated glacier cover dataset and includes snow and glacier model modifications. Comparisons are made to gridded outputs derived from a globally uniform 1∘ CESM grid, observation-, reanalysis-, and satellite-based datasets, and a glacier model forced by a regional climate model (RCM). Climatological biases are generally reduced compared to the coarse-resolution CESM grid, but the glacier SMB is too negative relative to observation-based glaciological and geodetic mass balances, as well as the RCM-forced glacier model output. In the second simulation, the SMB is improved but is still underestimated due to cloud cover and temperature biases, missing model physics, and incomplete land–atmosphere coupling. The outcomes suggest that VR-CESM could be a useful tool to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables and to study climate change in mountainous environments, but further developments are needed to better simulate the SMB of mountain glaciers.

CN‐N: A gridded dataset of nitrogen rate for rice, wheat and maize in China developed using the county‐level nitrogen statistics

AbstractExisting agricultural nitrogen datasets in China are mostly developed using coarse national or provincial statistics. A crop‐specific nitrogen rate dataset based on the finest‐scale agricultural nitrogen statistics at the county level remains lacking. Here, we constructed a new dataset (CN‐N), which provides annual nitrogen rates for rice, wheat and maize in China at a 1‐km spatial resolution from 2004 to 2016. This dataset was developed by harmonizing county‐level and provincial agricultural nitrogen statistics with gridded crop distribution maps, resulting in 13 years of nitrogen rate maps for each crop covering 2004–2016. Validation against farmers' surveys by crop indicates CN‐N reliably quantifies average nitrogen rates and trends for each crop over 2004–2016, demonstrating improved spatial heterogeneity compared to previous datasets rasterized using only provincial statistics. Our study provides a crop‐specific, temporally consistent, gridded nitrogen rate dataset based on the finest‐scale county‐level agricultural nitrogen statistics. This can support future process‐based modelling for sustainable agricultural nitrogen management strategies.

Microclimatic Variability of Cold-Season Minimum Temperatures in Michigan, United States: A Study with Implications for Insect Mortality

Abstract Gridded climate datasets are used by researchers and practitioners in many disciplines, including forest ecology, agriculture, and entomology. However, such datasets are generally unable to account for microclimatic variability, particularly within sites or among individual trees. One such dataset is a recent climatology of extreme minimum temperatures in the U.S. Great Lakes region, based on the Parameter–Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) gridded temperature dataset. Development of this climatology was motivated by interest in the spatiotemporal variability of winter temperatures potentially lethal to the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) (Adelges tsugae Annand) (Hemiptera: Adelgidae), an invasive insect that causes mortality of eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis). In this study, cold-season daily minimum temperatures were monitored at six Michigan sites varying in latitude, elevation, Great Lakes proximity, and HWA infestation status, to address two objectives. First, we documented the spatiotemporal variability in daily minimum air temperatures recorded at multiple aspects and heights on selected hemlock trees. Second, this variability was characterized in the context of the PRISM extreme minimum temperature climatology. Tree-sensor air temperatures exhibited minimal relationships with aspect but considerable sensitivity to height. Daily minimum temperatures were higher for some tree sensors positioned ≤ 0.2 m above ground level during some time periods, with overall muted temporal variability, relative to an adjacent ambient sensor. This phenomenon was attributed to the insulating effects of snow cover, because the tree–ambient sensor temperature difference was positively correlated with snow depth. Overall, results indicate that such unresolved variability warrants consideration by gridded climate dataset users.

Evaluation of ERA5 Reanalysis Precipitation Data in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin of the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract Atmospheric simulation-based gridded precipitation datasets have been widely used in hydrological and land surface modeling, but may contain larger uncertainties in mountainous regions. This study compared the performance of the fifth European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA5) precipitation data with two fused precipitation datasets [China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System version 2.0 (CLDAS2.0) and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD)] in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin (YZRB), which has a complex terrain and climate. Compared to in situ observations, ERA5 could capture the spatial–temporal pattern of precipitation but showed high precipitation, especially in the downstream region (lower Nuxia discharge station). In terms of the correlation coefficient, the overall performance of the ERA5 data was slightly worse than that for CMFD data at both the monthly and yearly scales, and was comparable to that of the CLDAS2.0 data. Given that the spatial mismatch between the gridded and in situ data may influence the evaluation, we also employed the water balance method to constrain basinwide precipitation amounts. We found that CLDAS2.0 and CMFD precipitation data tended to cause long-term water imbalance, and ERA5, with a much larger multiyear average annual precipitation, could better close the water budget. Further analysis showed that the differences in multiyear average annual precipitation between ERA5 and in situ observations were closely related to the slope and standard deviation of the subgrid-scale orography, indicating the substantial influence of subgrid topography on precipitation simulation. These findings highlight that ERA5 could be a potential reference dataset for hydrological modeling of the YZRB.

Long-term exposure to summer specific humidity and cardiovascular disease hospitalizations in the US Medicare population

IntroductionMost climate-health studies focus on temperature; however, less is known about health effects of exposure to atmospheric moisture. Humid air limits sweat evaporation from the body and can in turn exert strain on the cardiovascular system. We evaluated associations of long-term exposure to summer specific humidity with cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CBV) hospitalization. MethodsWe built an open cohort consisting of ∼63 million fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, aged ≥65, living in the contiguous US (2000–2016). We assessed zip code level summer average specific humidity and specific humidity variability, based on daily estimates from the Gridded Surface Meteorological dataset (∼4km spatial resolution). To estimate associations of summer specific humidity with first CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization, we used Cox-equivalent Poisson models adjusted for individual and area-level socioeconomic status indicators, temperature, and winter specific humidity. ResultsHigher summer average specific humidity was associated with an increased risk of CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization. We found hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.07 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.08) for CVD hospitalization, 1.08 (95%CI: 1.08, 1.09) for CHD hospitalization, and 1.07 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.08) for CBV hospitalization per IQR increase (4.0 g of water vapor/kg of dry air) in summer average specific humidity. Associations of summer average specific humidity were strongest for beneficiaries eligible for Medicaid and for beneficiaries with an unknown or other race. Higher summer specific humidity variability was also associated with increased risk of CVD, CHD, and CBV hospitalization. Associations were not affected by adjustment for temperature and regions of the US, as well as exclusion of potentially prevalent cases. ConclusionLong-term exposure to higher summer average specific humidity and specific humidity variability were positively associated with CVD hospitalization. As global warming could increase humidity levels, our findings are important to assess potential health impacts of climate change.

Addressing the Spatiotemporal Patterns of Heatwaves in Portugal with a Validated ERA5-Land Dataset (1980–2021)

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of heatwaves in mainland Portugal from 1 October 1980 to 30 September 2021 (41 hydrological years). It addresses a research gap by providing an updated assessment using high-resolution reanalysis daily minimum and maximum temperature data (Tmin and Tmax) from the gridded ERA5-Land dataset, overcoming the lack of publicly available daily temperature records. To assess the representation of the previous dataset, nine different grid-point locations across the country were considered. By comparing monthly ERA5-Land temperature data to ground-based records from the Portuguese Met Office, a monthly validation of the data was conducted for the longest common period, demonstrating good agreement between the two datasets. The heatwave magnitude index (HWMI) was employed to establish the temperature thresholds and thus identify heatwaves (defined as three or more consecutive days above the threshold). With over 640 Tmin heatwave days recorded at each of the nine ERA5-Land grid-points, data analysis revealed a discernible upward trend in Tmin heatwaves. The grid-point situated in the capital city’s urban area, i.e., Lisbon, exhibited the highest number of Tmin heatwave days. With an average of more than 800 Tmax heatwave days over the 41-year period, the northern and interior regions of Portugal had the greatest number of occurrences, reaching up to 916. A kernel rate estimation method was applied to further investigate the annual frequency of Tmin and Tmax heatwave occurrences. Results exhibited clear temperature changes, with a widespread increase in the number of heatwave days over the past two decades, particularly for Tmax. In summary, the occurrence of this phenomenon displayed significant spatial variations, with the southern interior and coastal grid-points experiencing a greater increase in annual Tmax heatwave days, rising from 10 to 30 between 2018 and 2019.

Evaluation of Gridded Meteorological Data for Crop Sensitivity Assessment to Temperature Changes: An Application with CERES-Wheat in the Mediterranean Basin

In areas with a limited or non-existent network of observing stations, it is critical to assess the applicability of gridded datasets. This study examined the agreement of Agri4Cast and E-OBS at two spatial resolutions (10 km (EOBS-0.1) and 25 km (EOBS-0.25)) in 13 Mediterranean stations nearby to wheat crops and how this agreement may influence simulated potential development and production with the crop simulation model (CSM) CERES-Wheat in historical and near-future (2021–2040) (NF) periods. A wide range of sensitivity tests for maximum and minimum air temperatures and impact response surfaces were used for the future projections. EOBS-0.1 showed the lowest discrepancies over observations. It underestimated statistical measures of temperature and precipitation raw data and their corresponding extreme indices and overestimated solar radiation. These discrepancies caused small delays (5–6 days, on average) in crop development and overestimations (8%) in grain production in the reference period. In the NF, the use of EOBS-0.1 reduced by a few (2–3) days the biases in crop development, while yield responses differed among stations. This research demonstrated the ability of EOBS-0.1 for agricultural applications that depend on potential wheat development and productivity in historical and future climate conditions expected in the Mediterranean basin.

Assessing applicability of two gridded precipitation datasets for hydrological simulation in a poorly gauged river basin towards supporting sustainable water resources management

Reliable and accurate precipitation estimates are important for hydrological studies and sustainable water resource management. However, networks of rain gauges are often sparsely and unevenly distributed in many large river basins in the world including the Red River basin (RRB). Thus this study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the applicability of two widely used gridded precipitation products, gauge-based APHRODITE and gauge satellite-based GSMaP-Gauge, over the RRB using both statistical and hydrological assessment approaches. The accuracy assessment of the gridded precipitation datasets was performed by comparing with the reference precipitation dataset derived from the local weather stations. The hydrological performance of both gridded products was evaluated through the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological modelling scheme for simulation of daily streamflow at the hydrological stations in the RRB. The results demonstrated that both gridded products could generally capture the spatiotemporal variation of the reference precipitation over the RRB during the period of 2005–2014, although both underestimated the reference precipitation. Results of statistical analysis showed that the APHRODITE data outperformed the GSMaP-Gauge data in precipitation estimation. The performance of the VIC model driven by the gridded precipitation products in streamflow simulation was satisfactory, although simulations forced with APHRODITE data displayed the better performance. Generally, the APHRODITE product showed its encouraging potential for hydrological studies over the RRB.

Projected climate extremes over agro-climatic zones of Ganga River Basin under 1.5, 2, and 3° global warming levels.

Recurring floods, droughts, heatwaves, and other hydro-meteorological extreme events are likely to be increased under the climate change scenarios. The increased risk of these extreme events might have more exposure to the population; thus, it is important to discuss such extreme events and their projected behavior under a changing climate scenario. In the present study, we have computed the extreme precipitation and temperature indices over the 10 agro-climatic zones falling under the Ganga River Basin (GRB)utilizing a high-resolution daily gridded temperature and precipitation multi-model ensembled CMIP6 dataset (0.25° × 0.25°) under global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C. We found that the annual daily minimum temperature (TNN) showed a higher rise of about 67% than the maximum temperature (TXX) of 48% in GRB. The basin also experiences a greater increase in the frequency of warm nights (TN90P) of about 67.71% compared to warm days (TX90P) of 29.1% for the 3°C global warming level. Along with extreme indices, the population exposed due to the impact of the extreme maximum temperature has also been analyzed for progressive warming levels. Population exposure to extreme temperature event (TXX) has been analyzed with 20-year return period using GEV distribution method. The study concludes that the exposed population to extreme temperature event experienced an increase from 46.99 to 52.16% for the whole Ganga Basin. Consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) both show a significant increasing trend, but CWD has a significant increase in the majority of the zones, while CDD shows a significant decreasing trend for some of the zones for three warming levels periods. Extreme climate indices help to understand the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall, droughts, and heatwaves to develop early warning systems and adaptation strategies to mitigate such events.

Smart grid energy storage capacity planning and scheduling optimization through PSO-GRU and multihead-attention

The energy problem in today’s society is becoming increasingly prominent, and the smart grid has become one of the important ways to solve the energy problem. Smart grid energy storage capacity planning and scheduling optimization is an important issue in the smart grid, which can make the grid more efficient, reliable, and sustainable to meet energy demand better and protect the environment. The core of smart grid energy storage capacity planning and scheduling optimization is maximizing the use of energy storage devices to balance the difference between power supply and demand to ensure the grid operation’s stability. Traditional planning methods are usually based on experience and rules, have low precision, and cannot adapt to the dynamic changes in the long-term development of the power grid. Therefore, this paper proposes a method that combines PSO-GRU (particle swarm Optimization (PSO)-gated recurrent unit (GRU)) and Multihead-Attention to realize smart grid energy storage capacity planning. And scheduling optimization. First, PSO-GRU models and predicts power grid data by searching for the optimal GRU model parameters; second, Multihead-Attention improves the model’s performance through the self-attention mechanism. Finally, we use the method to determine the optimal energy storage capacity and dispatching scheme for the efficient operation of smart grids. Our experiments use real power grid datasets and compare them with other common methods. Experimental results show that our proposed method has higher accuracy and stability than other methods and can better adapt to the dynamic changes of the power grid. This indicates that our method has good feasibility and applicability in practical applications and is significant for realizing the efficient operation of smart grids and energy saving and emission reduction.

Reliability of gridded temperature datasets to monitor surface air temperature variability over Bolivia

AbstractSix gridded temperature datasets (T‐datasets) were evaluated for the first time over the South American continent, through the case study of Bolivia, by comparing them with temperature records acquired from 82 meteorological stations spanning the 1995–2010 period. The comparisons were carried out at the daily time step considering different seasons (annual scale, austral summer and austral winter) and regions (Amazon, La Plata and Altiplano basins). Overall, the climate hazards group infrared temperature with stations (CHIRTS) and the climate prediction centre (CPC) T‐datasets provided the most reliable mean daily temperature (Tmean) and also described well the temporal variability of minimum and maximum daily temperature estimates (Tn and Tx). Tmean, Tn and Tx trends were analysed over the 1983–2016 period to observe temperature temporal evolution across the three regions. Despite some general agreements between the trends (Tmean, Tx and Tn), large discrepancies are also observed. It was found that CPC overestimates and CHIRTS underestimates mean temperature trends and that CPC (CHIRTS) was better than CHIRTS (CPC) to estimate Tx (Tn) trends, both in magnitude and space. Furthermore, opposing trends (i.e., warming and cooling) are described by CPC and CHIRTS for some specific regions, which call into question their reliability for such analyses. These findings highlight the need to validate gridded temperature products with reliable ground data for the regions under study, particularly if they have a wide elevation range.

Support vector regression based on improved Harris Hawk optimization algorithm for power load forecasting

Electricity load forecasting is an important part of power system operation, planning and management. Support vector regression (SVR) is a commonly used and efficient method for medium and long-term load forecasting. The hyperparameters of SVR have a very high influence on its performance and are not easily determined. In this paper, an improved Harris Hawk optimization algorithm (TAHHO) is proposed for optimizing the hyperparameters of SVR, and a TAHHO-SVR medium- and long-term prediction model is developed. TAHHHO enhances the convergence and stability of the original algorithm by introducing the survival of the fittest principle and the crossover operator of the artificial tree (AT) algorithm, which is validated in 13 benchmark test functions. The proposed TAHHO-SVR model is used for forecasting the UK National Grid dataset and demonstrates the feasibility and competitiveness of the model, which effectively improves the forecasting accuracy compared to HHO-SVR.

Occurrence of heavy precipitation influenced by solar wind high-speed streams through vertical atmospheric coupling

A tendency of heavy rainfall-induced floods in Canada to follow arrivals of solar wind high-speed streams (HSSs) from coronal holes is observed. Precipitation events during the winter, including extreme freezing rain events in the province of New Brunswick, also tend to occur following HSSs. More direct evidence is provided using the satellite-based gridded precipitation dataset Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) in the superposed epoch analysis of high-rate precipitation. The results show an increase in the high-rate daily precipitation occurrence over Canada following arrivals of major HSSs. This is consistent with previously published results for other mid-latitude geographic regions. The ERA5 meteorological reanalysis is used to evaluate the slantwise convective available potential energy (SCAPE) that is of importance in the development of storms. The role of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling, mediated by globally propagating aurorally excited atmospheric gravity waves releasing the conditional symmetric instability in the troposphere leading to convection and precipitation, is proposed.

A new daily gridded precipitation dataset for the Chinese mainland based on gauge observations

Abstract. High-quality, freely accessible, long-term precipitation estimates with fine spatiotemporal resolution play essential roles in hydrologic, climatic, and numerical modeling applications. However, the existing daily gridded precipitation datasets over China are either constructed with insufficient gauge observations or neglect topographic effects and boundary effects on interpolation. Using daily observations from 2839 gauges located across China and nearby regions from 1961 to the present, this study compared eight different interpolation schemes that adjusted the climatology based on a monthly precipitation constraint and topographic characteristic correction, using an algorithm that combined the daily climatology field with a precipitation ratio field. Results from these eight interpolation schemes were validated using 45 992 high-density daily gauge observations from 2015 to 2019 across China. Of these eight schemes, the one with the best performance merges the Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) in the daily climatology field and interpolates station observations into the ratio field using an inverse-distance weighting method. This scheme had median values of 0.78 for the correlation coefficient, 8.8 mm d−1 for the root-mean-square deviation, and 0.69 for the Kling–Gupta efficiency for comparisons between the 45 992 high-density gauge observations and the best interpolation scheme for the 0.1∘ latitude × longitude grid cells from 2015 to 2019. This scheme had the best overall performance, as it fully considers topographic effects in the daily climatology field and it balances local data fidelity and global fitting smoothness in the interpolation of the precipitation ratio field. Therefore, this scheme was used to construct a new long-term, gauge-based gridded precipitation dataset for the Chinese mainland (called CHM_PRE, as a member of the China Hydro-Meteorology dataset) with spatial resolutions of 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1∘ from 1961 to the present. This precipitation dataset is expected to facilitate the advancement of drought monitoring, flood forecasting, and hydrological modeling. Free access to the dataset can be found at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.21432123.v4 (Han and Miao, 2022).

Extreme Temperature Events, Fine Particulate Matter, and Myocardial Infarction Mortality.

Extreme temperature events (ETEs), including heat wave and cold spell, have been linked to myocardial infarction (MI) morbidity; however, their effects on MI mortality are less clear. Although ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is suggested to act synergistically with extreme temperatures on cardiovascular mortality, it remains unknown if and how ETEs and PM2.5 interact to trigger MI deaths. A time-stratified case-crossover study of 202 678 MI deaths in Jiangsu province, China, from 2015 to 2020, was conducted to investigate the association of exposure to ETEs and PM2.5 with MI mortality and evaluate their interactive effects. On the basis of ambient apparent temperature, multiple temperature thresholds and durations were used to build 12 ETE definitions. Daily ETEs and PM2.5 exposures were assessed by extracting values from validated grid datasets at each subject's geocoded residential address. Conditional logistic regression models were applied to perform exposure-response analyses and estimate relative excess odds due to interaction, proportion attributable to interaction, and synergy index. Under different ETE definitions, the odds ratio of MI mortality associated with heat wave and cold spell ranged from 1.18 (95% CI, 1.14-1.21) to 1.74 (1.66-1.83), and 1.04 (1.02-1.06) to 1.12 (1.07-1.18), respectively. Lag 01-day exposure to PM2.5 was significantly associated with an increased odds of MI mortality, which attenuated at higher exposures. We observed a significant synergistic interaction of heat wave and PM2.5 on MI mortality (relative excess odds due to interaction >0, proportion attributable to interaction >0, and synergy index >1), which was higher, in general, for heat wave with greater intensities and longer durations. We estimated that up to 2.8% of the MI deaths were attributable to exposure to ETEs and PM2.5 at levels exceeding the interim target 3 value (37.5 μg/m3) of World Health Organization air quality guidelines. Women and older adults were more vulnerable to ETEs and PM2.5. The interactive effects of ETEs or PM2.5 on MI mortality did not vary across sex, age, or socioeconomic status. This study provides consistent evidence that exposure to both ETEs and PM2.5 is significantly associated with an increased odds of MI mortality, especially for women and older adults, and that heat wave interacts synergistically with PM2.5 to trigger MI deaths but cold spell does not. Our findings suggest that mitigating both ETE and PM2.5 exposures may bring health cobenefits in preventing premature deaths from MI.

Heat wave exposure and semen quality in sperm donation volunteers: A retrospective longitudinal study in south China

BackgroundPrevious studies have suggested an association between non-optimum ambient temperature and decreased semen quality. However, the effect of exposure to heat waves on semen quality remains unclear. MethodsVolunteers who intended to donate sperm in Guangdong provincial human sperm bank enrolled. Heat waves were defined by temperature threshold and duration, with a total of 9 definitions were employed, specifying daily mean temperature exceeding the 85th, 90th, or 95th percentile for at least 2, 3, or 4 consecutive days. Residential exposure to heat waves during 0–90 days before ejaculation was evaluated using a validated gridded dataset on ambient temperature. Association and potential windows of susceptibility were evaluated and identified using linear mixed models and distributed lag non-linear models. ResultsA total of 2183 sperm donation volunteers underwent 8632 semen analyses from 2018 to 2019. Exposure to heat wave defined as daily mean temperature exceeding the 95th percentile for at least 4 consecutive days (P95–D4) was significantly associated with a 0.11 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.03, 0.18) ml, 3.36 (1.35, 5.38) × 106/ml, 16.93 (7.95, 25.91) × 106, and 2.11% (1.4%, 2.83%) reduction in semen volume, sperm concentration, total sperm number, and normal forms, respectively; whereas exposure to heat wave defined as P90–D4 was significantly associated with a 1.98% (1.47%, 2.48%) and 2.08% (1.57%, 2.58%) reduction in total motility and progressive motility, respectively. Sperm count and morphology were susceptible to heat wave exposure during the early stage of spermatogenesis, while sperm motility was susceptible to exposure during the late stage. ConclusionHeat wave exposure was significantly associated with a reduction in semen quality. The windows of susceptibility during 0–90 days before ejaculation varied across sperm count, motility, and morphology. Our findings suggest that reducing heat wave exposure before ejaculation may benefit sperm donation volunteers and those attempting to conceive.

Validation of precipitation reanalysis products for rainfall-runoff modelling in Slovenia

Abstract. Observational data scarcity often limits the potential of rainfall-runoff modelling around the globe. In ungauged catchments, earth observations or reanalysis products could be used to replace missing ground-based station data. However, performance of different datasets needs to be thoroughly tested, especially at finer temporal resolutions such as hourly time steps. This study evaluates the performance of ERA5-Land and COSMO-REA6 precipitation reanalysis products (PRPs) using 16 meso-scale catchments (41–460 km2) located in Slovenia, Europe. These two PRPs are firstly compared with a gridded precipitation dataset that was constructed based on ground observational data. Secondly, a comparison of the temperature data of these reanalysis products with station-based air temperature data is conducted. Thirdly, several data combinations are defined and used as input for the rainfall-runoff modelling using the GR4H model. A special focus is on the application of an additional snow module. Both tested PRPs underestimate, for at least 20 %, extreme rainfall events that are the driving force of natural hazards such as floods. In terms of air temperature, both tested reanalysis products show similar deviations from the observational dataset. Additionally, air temperature deviations are smaller in winter compared to summer. In terms of rainfall-runoff modelling, the ERA5-Land yields slightly better performance than COSMO-REA6. If a recalibration with PRP has been carried out, the performance is similar compared to the simulations where station-based data were used as input. Model recalibration proves to be essential in providing relatively sufficient rainfall-runoff modelling results. Hence, tested PRPs could be used as an alternative to the station-based data in case precipitation or air temperature data are lacking, but model calibration using discharge data would be needed to improve the performance.

The understory microclimate in agroforestry now and in the future – a case study of Arabica coffee in its native range

Climate change is having a major impact on crop production and food security worldwide, and particularly so for smallholder farmers. As agroforestry is common with smallholder farmers, it is important to not only model the macroclimate, but also the microclimate that crops experience below the canopies. However, there are few high-resolution spatiotemporal climate projections for forest understories, because of constraints related to the lack of i) development of models for downscaling global climate projections, ii) high-resolution gridded datasets of environmental factors influencing microclimate, and iii) spatially replicated in-situ microclimate measurements. We focused on a landscape in southwestern Ethiopia where Arabica coffee originated, and, in the present day, is commonly grown as a shade crop. We first examined the relative contribution of in-situ field measurements vs. GIS-derived estimates of vegetation and topographic features in explaining in-situ microclimate. Second, we used a statistical downscaling approach to obtain past and future microclimate maps at 30-meter spatial resolution for the part of the landscape that is covered by trees. Predictive models using in-situ variables performed equal to models with GIS variables, indicating that remote sensing data might substitute for in-situ field measurements. Vegetation and topographic features were both important in explaining microclimatic variation. Our spatiotemporal projections of the microclimate indicate that coffee farming might have to relocate to higher altitudes due to increasing temperatures, that vegetation might buffer the macroclimate at middle altitudes to some extent, and that decreasing trends in relative humidity at the beginning of the wet season might become problematic for coffee production. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that we can rely on remote sensing data to create microclimate maps in landscapes where in-situ field measurements are challenging, and we suggest how these microclimate projections can be used as a tool to promote climate-resilient agriculture at the local and landscape levels.

High-resolution gridded population datasets for Latin America and the Caribbean using official statistics

“Leaving no one behind” is the fundamental objective of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Latin America and the Caribbean is marked by social inequalities, whilst its total population is projected to increase to almost 760 million by 2050. In this context, contemporary and spatially detailed datasets that accurately capture the distribution of residential population are critical to appropriately inform and support environmental, health, and developmental applications at subnational levels. Existing datasets are under-utilised by governments due to the non-alignment with their own statistics. Therefore, official statistics at the finest level of administrative units available have been implemented to construct an open-access repository of high-resolution gridded population datasets for 40 countries in Latin American and the Caribbean. These datasets are detailed here, alongside the ‘top-down’ approach and methods to generate and validate them. Population distribution datasets for each country were created at a resolution of 3 arc-seconds (approximately 100 m at the equator), and are all available from the WorldPop Data Repository.