Mass Balance Of Greenland Research Articles

GNET Derived Mass Balance and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Constraints for Greenland

AbstractMonitoring the Greenland mass balance (GMB) is crucial in the context of global sea level rise. Currently, three main methods are used to measure GMB, with the primary source of uncertainty arising from the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contribution. Here, we propose a novel approach based on a simple methodology that uses the entire Greenland GNSS network (GNET) as an instrument to monitor the present‐day mass changes. Our method is validated against GRACE‐derived GMB, and we find a very good agreement. This leads to an independent methodology for estimating present‐day mass changes from GNSS, bridging the gap between GRACE and GRACE‐FO in GMB estimates. Through a combined analysis of GMB from GRACE and GNET, we identify a consistency relation between the gravity and uplift signature of GIA, providing a new robust constraint for GIA models.

Closing Greenland's Mass Balance: Frontal Ablation of Every Greenlandic Glacier From 2000 to 2020

AbstractIn Greenland, 87% of the glacierized area terminates in the ocean, but mass lost at the ice‐ocean interface, or frontal ablation, has not yet been fully quantified. Using measurements and models we calculate frontal ablation of Greenland's 213 outlet and 537 peripheral glaciers and find a total frontal ablation of 481.8 ± 24.0 for 2000–2010 and 510.2 ± 18.6 Gt a−1 for 2010–2020. Ice discharge accounted for ∼90% of frontal ablation during both periods, while mass loss due to terminus retreat comprised the remainder. Only 16 glaciers were responsible for the majority (>50%) of frontal ablation from 2010 to 2020. These estimates, along with the climatic‐basal balance, allow for a more complete accounting of Greenland Ice Sheet and peripheral glacier mass balance. In total, Greenland accounted for ∼90% of Northern Hemisphere frontal ablation for 2000–2010 and 2010–2020.

Relating snowfall observations to Greenland ice sheet mass changes: an atmospheric circulation perspective

Abstract. Snowfall is the major source of mass for the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) but the spatial and temporal variability of snowfall and the connections between snowfall and mass balance have so far been inadequately quantified. By characterizing local atmospheric circulation and utilizing CloudSat spaceborne radar observations of snowfall, we provide a detailed spatial analysis of snowfall variability and its relationship to Greenland mass balance, presenting first-of-their-kind maps of daily spatial variability in snowfall from observations across Greenland. For identified regional atmospheric circulation patterns, we show that the spatial distribution and net mass input of snowfall vary significantly with the position and strength of surface cyclones. Cyclones west of Greenland driving southerly flow contribute significantly more snowfall than any other circulation regime, with each daily occurrence of the most extreme southerly circulation pattern contributing an average of 1.66 Gt of snow to the Greenland ice sheet. While cyclones east of Greenland, patterns with the least snowfall, contribute as little as 0.58 Gt each day. Above 2 km on the ice sheet where snowfall is inconsistent, extreme southerly patterns are the most significant mass contributors, with up to 1.20 Gt of snowfall above this elevation. This analysis demonstrates that snowfall over the interior of Greenland varies by up to a factor of 5 depending on regional circulation conditions. Using independent observations of mass changes made by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), we verify that the largest mass increases are tied to the southerly regime with cyclones west of Greenland. For occurrences of the strongest southerly pattern, GRACE indicates a net mass increase of 1.29 Gt in the ice sheet accumulation zone (above 2 km elevation) compared to the 1.20 Gt of snowfall observed by CloudSat. This overall agreement suggests that the analytical approach presented here can be used to directly quantify snowfall mass contributions and their most significant drivers spatially across the GrIS. While previous research has implicated this same southerly regime in ablation processes during summer, this paper shows that ablation mass loss in this circulation regime is nearly an order of magnitude larger than the mass gain from associated snowfall. For daily occurrences of the southerly circulation regime, a mass loss of approximately 11 Gt is observed across the ice sheet despite snowfall mass input exceeding 1 Gt. By analyzing the spatial variability of snowfall and mass changes, this research provides new insight into connections between regional atmospheric circulation and GrIS mass balance.

GNSS Profile from the Greenland Korth Expeditions in the Context of Satellite Data

Over the last two decades, a small group of researchers repeatedly crossed the Greenland interior skiing along a 700-km long route from east to west, acquiring precise GNSS measurements at exactly the same locations. Four such elevation profiles of the ice sheet measured in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2015 were differenced and used to analyze the surface elevation change. Our goal is to compare such locally measured GNSS data with independent satellite observations. First, we show an agreement in the rate of elevation change between the GNSS data and satellite radar altimetry (ERS, Envisat, CryoSat-2). Both datasets agree well (2002–2015), and both correctly display local features such as an elevation increase in the central part of the ice sheet and a sharp gradual decline in the surface heights above Jakobshavn Glacier. Second, we processed satellite gravimetry data (GRACE) in order for them to be comparable with local GNSS measurements. The agreement is demonstrated by a time series at one of the measurement sites. Finally, we provide our own satellite gravimetry (GRACE, GRACE-FO, Swarm) estimate of the Greenland mass balance: first a mild decrease (2002–2007: −210 ± 29 Gt/yr), then an accelerated mass loss (2007–2012: −335 ± 29 Gt/yr), which was noticeably reduced afterwards (2012–2017: −178 ± 72 Gt/yr), and nowadays it seems to increase again (2018–2019: −278 ± 67 Gt/yr).

Improving Bed Topography Mapping of Greenland Glaciers Using NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) Data

Author(s): Morlighem, M; Rignot, E; Willis, JK | Abstract: Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has the potential to raise sea level by 7.36 m and is already contributing to global sea level rise at a rate higher than 1 mm yr–1. Computer models are our best tools to make projections of the mass balance of Greenland over the next centuries, but these models rely on bed topography data that remain poorly constrained near glacier termini. Accurate bed topography in the vicinity of calving fronts is critical for numerical models, as the shapes of the glacier bed and of the nearby bathymetry control both the ocean circulation in the fjord and the stability and response of the ice sheet to climate warming. NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) mission is collecting bathymetry data along Greenland fjords at several glacier termini. Here, we show that these measurements are transforming our knowledge of fjord and glacier depths. Using a mass conservation approach, we combine OMG bathymetry with observations of ice velocity and thickness to produce estimates of bed depth and ice thickness across the ice-ocean boundary with unprecedented accuracy and reliability. Our results along the northwest coast of Greenland reveal complex structural features in bed elevation, such as valleys, ridges, bumps, and hollows. These features have important implications for both channeling ice flow toward the continental margin, and for controlling the amount of warm, salty Atlantic Water that reaches the glaciers.

Application of GRACE to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (2003–2012)

Abstract. Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ∼ 300 km spatial scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the years 2003–2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice–ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than predicted by the models while simultaneously having more pronounced trends; thus, discrepancies are likely controlled by a combination of missing processes and errors in both the SMB products and ISSM. At the margins, we find evidence of consistent intra-annual variations in regional MB that deviate distinctively from the SMB annual cycle. Ultimately, these monthly-scale variations, likely associated with hydrology or ice–ocean interaction, contribute to steeper negative mass trends observed by GRACE_JPL. Thus, models should consider such processes at relatively high (monthly-to-seasonal) temporal resolutions to achieve accurate estimates of Greenland MB.

A high‐resolution record of Greenland mass balance

AbstractWe map recent Greenland Ice Sheet elevation change at high spatial (5 km) and temporal (monthly) resolution using CryoSat‐2 altimetry. After correcting for the impact of changing snowpack properties associated with unprecedented surface melting in 2012, we find good agreement (3 cm/yr bias) with airborne measurements. With the aid of regional climate and firn modeling, we compute high spatial and temporal resolution records of Greenland mass evolution, which correlate (R = 0.96) with monthly satellite gravimetry and reveal glacier dynamic imbalance. During 2011–2014, Greenland mass loss averaged 269 ± 51 Gt/yr. Atmospherically driven losses were widespread, with surface melt variability driving large fluctuations in the annual mass deficit. Terminus regions of five dynamically thinning glaciers, which constitute less than 1% of Greenland's area, contributed more than 12% of the net ice loss. This high‐resolution record demonstrates that mass deficits extending over small spatial and temporal scales have made a relatively large contribution to recent ice sheet imbalance.

Optimization of regional constraints for estimating the Greenland mass balance with GRACE level-2 data

Data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission can be used to estimate the mass change rate for separate drainage systems (DSs) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). One approach to do so is by inversion of the level-2 spherical harmonic data to surface mass changes in predefined regions, or mascons. However, the inversion can be numerically unstable for some individual DSs. This occurs mainly for DSs with a small mass change signal that are located in the interior region of Greenland. In this study, we present a modified mascon inversion approach with an improved implementation of the constraint equations to obtain better estimates for individual DSs. We use separate constraints for mass change variability in the coastal zone, where run-off takes place, and for the ice sheet interior above 2000 m, where mass changes are smaller. A multi-objective optimization approach is used to find optimal prior variances for these two areas based on a simulation model. Correlations between adjacent DSs are suppressed when our optimized prior variances are used, while the mass balance estimates for the combination of the DSs that make up the GrIS above 2000 m are not affected significantly. The resulting mass balance estimates for some DSs in the interior are significantly improved compared to an inversion with a single constraint, as determined by a comparison with mass balance estimates from surface mass balance modelling and discharge measurements. The rate of mass change of the GrIS for the period of January 2003 to December 2012 is found to be −266.1± 17.2 Gtyr −1 in the coastal zone and areas below 2000 m, and +8.2± 8.6 Gtyr −1 in the interior region.

Surface albedo as a proxy for the mass balance of Greenland’s terrestrial ice

Satellite observations are critical to understanding the mass balance of Greenland’s terrestrial ice (Fig. 1). The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite constellation provides monthly gravimetry observations that can directly assess mass balance. Temporal data gaps have begun to appear in the GRACE record due to declining satellite function. In anticipation of further deterioration in the coverage of GRACE, we have explored an empirical relation between ice-surface albedo (or reflectance) and ice-mass balance to fill the gaps in the gravimetry record of Greenland’s ice-mass balance. As surface albedo observed by the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite is available in near real-time, employing a MODIS-derived proxy permits near real-time estimates of Greenland ice-mass balance. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland has begun employing the albedo – mass-balance relation described here to issue near real-time estimates of Greenland ice-mass balance during the summer melt season at www.polarportal.org.

Greenland mass variation from time‐variable gravity in the absence of GRACE

In a recent paper, the authors succeeded in the inference of time‐variable gravity from orbit analysis of the CHAMP satellite. The authors demonstrated the potential of the adopted methods by validation against GRACE data and surface height changes from GPS ground stations. This paper presents the capability of orbit analysis for the spatiotemporal quantification of Greenland mass change trends. Based on CHAMP time‐variable gravity fields from January 2003 to December 2009, we estimated the ice mass loss over the entire of Greenland to 246±10 Gt/yr. This result is in line with the findings from GRACE data analysis (223±10 Gt/yr) over the same period; the trend estimates differ by only 10%. Moreover, for some areas, the spatial mass variation patterns are in good agreement, pinpointing dominant deglaciation along the Greenland coastline. We conclude that orbit analysis of low‐Earth orbiting spacecraft is suitable to assess Greenland mass balance in the absence of the GRACE satellites.

Mass balance of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, 2000-2010

[1] Acceleration of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq and Jakobshavn Isbrae, accounted for a substantial portion of the ice sheet's mass loss over the past decade. Rapid changes in their discharge, however, make their cumulative mass-change uncertain. We derive monthly mass balance rates and cumulative balance from discharge and surface mass balance (SMB) rates for these glaciers from 2000 through 2010. Despite the dramatic changes observed at Helheim, the glacier gained mass over the period, due primarily to the short-duration of acceleration and a likely longer-term positive balance. In contrast, Jakobshavn Isbrae lost an equivalent of over 11 times the average annual SMB and loss continues to accelerate. Kangerdlugssuaq lost over 7 times its annual average SMB, but loss has returned to the 2000 rate. These differences point to contrasts in the long-term evolution of these glaciers and the danger in basing predictions on extrapolations of recent changes.

A spatially calibrated model of annual accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet (1958–2007)

Past estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet accumulation rates have been multiyear climatologies based on ice/firn cores and coastal precipitation records. Existing annually resolved estimates have incompletely quantified uncertainty, owing primarily to incomplete spatial coverage. This study improves upon these shortcomings by calibrating annual (1958–2007) solid precipitation output from the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model modified for polar climates (Polar MM5) using firn core and meteorological station data. The calibration employs spatial interpolation of regionally derived linear correction functions. Residual uncertainties exhibit coherent spatial patterns, which are modeled via spatial interpolation of root mean squared errors. Mean 1958–2007 Greenland Ice Sheet annual accumulation rate is 337 ± 48 mm/yr water equivalent (w.e.) or 591 ± 83 Gt/yr. Annual estimates contain one standard deviation uncertainties of 74 mm/yr w.e., 22%, or 129 Gt/yr. Accumulation rates in southeast Greenland are found to exceed 2000 mm/yr w.e. and to dominate interannual variability in Greenland Ice Sheet total accumulated mass, representing 31% of the whole. Accumulation rates in the southeast are of sufficient magnitude to affect the sign of Greenland mass balance during some years. The only statistically significant temporal change in total ice sheet accumulation in the 1958–2007 period occurred between 1960 and 1972, when a simultaneous accumulation increase and decrease occurred in west and east Greenland, respectively. No statistically significant uniform change in ice sheet‐wide accumulation is evident after 1972. However, regional changes do occur, including an accumulation increase on the west coast post‐1992. The high accumulation rates of 2002–2003 appear to be confined to the southeast.

Greenland mass balance from GRACE

We use 22 monthly GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) gravity fields to estimate the linear trend in Greenland ice mass during 2002–2004. We recover a decrease in total ice mass of 82 ± 28 km3 of ice per year, consistent with estimates from other techniques. Our uncertainty estimate is dominated by the effects of GRACE measurement errors and errors in our post glacial rebound (PG) correction. The main advantages of GRACE are that it is sensitive to the entire ice sheet, and that it provides mass estimates with only minimal use of supporting physical assumptions or ancillary data.

Present And Past Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Simulations For Greenland And The Tibetan Plateau

Net annual mass balance was evaluated for Greenland and the Tibetan Plateau using the meteorological forcings from the NCEP reanalysis and two GCMs (FOAM1.0 and CSM1.4) for modern climate and for different time periods extending back to the beginning of the Holocene (11,000 years ago) for the climate models. The ice-sheet budget calculations, using the degree day methodology, were performed on a finer grid than the model output by interpolating monthly precipitation and surface temperature and correcting the latter to account for the GCM’s smoothed topography. The computed net mass balance for Greenland in the present day is positive and it ranges between 290–300 mm water equivalent (w.e.)/year for the two models, values close to the NCEP estimate of 250 mm/year. The past climate simulations show that the Greenland mass balance has become slightly more positive since the beginning of the Holocene. The Tibetan Plateau’s present-day area average net mass balance is negative and ranges between –1200 and –2000 mm w.e. /year for the two models, values bracketing the NCEP estimate of 1700 mm/year, although the balance is positive over small regions of the plateau consistent with the existence of small ice caps and glaciers. The calculated past mass balance shows an increasingly less negative value for FOAM from 11,000 years ago towards the present and expansion of the positive mass balance areas, mainly due to decreased snow ablation as the summertime insolation decreases with the changes in orbital forcing; in CSM the opposite trend occurs but changes are smaller and less systematic. The result from FOAM shows that the likelihood of ice sheets developing on the Tibetan Plateau may have increased since 11000 years ago, which is consistent with some glacial records.

Atmospheric contributions to the surface mass balance of Greenland in the HadAM3 atmospheric model

Atmospheric climate models now present powerful tools for studying atmospheric parameters relevant to the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, a significant uncertainty in global sea level. This study evaluates the simulations of the UK Hadley Centre atmospheric model (HadAM3) against observational data and reanalyses. HadAM3 reproduces the main precipitation patterns, but a positive bias exists in autumn over southern Greenland. The modeled North Atlantic storm track is well placed, but it and the polar vortex and hemispheric‐scale wave activity are weaker than observed, which may impact on moisture flux over Greenland. Surface temperatures are 2°–3°C too warm in summer and up to 5°C too cold in winter, probably owing to the snow albedo varying too little throughout the year, and excess summer downward short‐wave radiation flux and winter long‐wave loss, related to insufficient cloud cover. The summer warm bias and the too coarsely represented ice sheet area lead to Greenland‐mean melting being overestimated, and a negative surface mass balance is simulated. A higher‐resolution ice sheet mask improves these quantities significantly. Increasing resolution is expected to remove most errors when orography and the ice sheet, particularly around the coastal margins where gradients are large, are better defined, as orographic dynamical deficiencies are minimized. A high‐resolution version of the model is seen to improve the simulation of precipitation. Minor ice and snow physics improvements are needed, but the large‐scale simulation produces good‐quality inputs with no major bias for higher resolution limited area or downscaling models.

A Possible Change in Mass Balance of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets in the Coming Century

A high-resolution GCM is found to simulate precipitation and surface energy balance of high latitudes with high accuracy. This opens new possibilities to investigate the future mass balance of polar glaciers and its effect on sea level. The surface mass balance of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets is simulated using the ECHAM3 GCM with TI06 horizontal resolution. With this model, two 5-year integrations for the present and doubled carbon dioxide conditions based on the boundary conditions provided by the ECHAM1/T21 transient experiment have been conducted. A comparison of the two experiments over Greenland and Antarctica shows to what extent the effect of climate change on the mass balance on the two largest glaciers of the world can differ. On Greenland one sees a slight decrease in accumulation and a substantial increase in melt, while on Antarctica a large increase in accumulation without melt is projected. Translating the mass balances into terms of sea-level equivalent. the Greenland discharge causes a sea level rise of 1. 1 mm yr−1, while the accumulation on Antarctica tends to lower it by 0.9 mm yr−1. The change in the combined mass balance of the two continents is almost zero. The sea level change of the next century can be affected more effectively by the thermal expansion of seawater and the mass balance of smaller glaciers outside of Greenland and Antarctica.

The waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

Past modelling studies have shown that the energy balance of the ice-sheet surface is of primary importance in representing the 100 000 year glacial cycle. In particular, modelling of the net mass-balance function is an important part of coupled ice-sheet/climate models. We conduct a series of palaeoclimatic simulations with a vertically integrated ice-flow model coupled to the two-dimensional statistical-dynamical LLN (Louvain-la-Neuve) climate model. The models are coupled through a land-surface model which computes seasonal cycles of surface temperature and precipitation at the real altitude of the surface and evaluates the annual snow and/or ice-mass budget. The present-day climate of the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland mass balance and the snowfield characteristics are quite well represented despite the relative simplicity of the model. Total ice-volume and sea-level variations during the last glacial cycle are well simulated. This suggests that the physical mechanisms included in the models are sufficient to explain the most striking features of the ice-age cycle. Introducing an improved and more detailed topography improves the simulation of the total ice volume but fails to correct inadequacies in the simulated ice distribution on the surface of the Earth.

The waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets

Past modelling studies have shown that the energy balance of the ice-sheet surface is of primary importance in representing the 100 000 year glacial cycle. In particular, modelling of the net mass-balance function is an important part of coupled ice-sheet/climate models. We conduct a series of palaeoclimatic simulations with a vertically integrated ice-flow model coupled to the two-dimensional statistical-dynamical LLN (Louvain-la-Neuve) climate model. The models are coupled through a land-surface model which computes seasonal cycles of surface temperature and precipitation at the real altitude of the surface and evaluates the annual snow and/or ice-mass budget. The present-day climate of the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland mass balance and the snowfield characteristics are quite well represented despite the relative simplicity of the model. Total ice-volume and sea-level variations during the last glacial cycle are well simulated. This suggests that the physical mechanisms included in the models are sufficient to explain the most striking features of the ice-age cycle. Introducing an improved and more detailed topography improves the simulation of the total ice volume but fails to correct inadequacies in the simulated ice distribution on the surface of the Earth.