Greenland Climate Research Articles

Evaluating middle to late Holocene climate variability from δ18O of aquatic invertebrate remains in southwestern Greenland

Holocene paleotemperature records from ice-free margins of Greenland suggest spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the timing of key climate transitions following retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet. However, the paucity of high-resolution climate records from this region limits our understanding of the timing, spatial variation, and drivers of Holocene climate variability. Here, we present a middle to late Holocene climate reconstruction based on δ18O of aquatic invertebrate (chironomid and cladoceran) remains and sediment geochemistry from lake sediments to elucidate millennial to submillennial-scale drivers of climate in southwestern Greenland. We establish that our site, Arrowhead Lake, is a through-flowing basin with an integrated signal of annual meteoric water with no evidence of significant evaporative enrichment. Core sediment geochemistry captures the transition from minerogenic-dominated to organic-rich sediments ∼8 cal ka BP. Chitin-based δ18O measurements of both chironomid head capsules and ephippia exhibit similar temporal variability through the record, broadly decreasing from 8.2 cal ka BP to present, concurrent with decreasing summer insolation and regional Neoglacial cooling. A simplified assumption that temperature is the sole driver of changes in isotopes of precipitation yields an estimated average temperature change from the middle to late Holocene at Arrowhead Lake of 2.1–3.0 °C, comparable to existing estimates of middle to late Holocene temperature decline in western Greenland. Depleted δ18O values after 3.3 cal ka BP correspond to the onset of Neoglacial cooling and independent evidence for a slowdown of the West Greenland Current, and suggests that both temperature and sea-ice variability were important controls on isotopic variability at this site. Highly depleted isotopic values at 8.2 cal ka BP followed by high isotopic variability in the early part of the middle Holocene suggests that our record may capture regional 8.2 ka cooling. This new isotope record provides insight into climate influences during the middle and late Holocene along the western Greenland margin that are important for understanding how ongoing melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and amplified warming in the Arctic may impact the climate system.

Projections of Greenland climate change from CMIP5 and CMIP6

As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the global average, the Greenland ice sheet faces a warmer future without restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, 24 CMIP5 and 21 CMIP6 models were used to analyze projections of precipitation, 2 m or near-surface air temperature (T2m), and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) over Greenland under medium and high emission scenarios. The multi-model ensemble means indicate that CMIP6 is a warmer output with more precipitation in Greenland under medium and high emission scenarios relative to CMIP5. At the end of the 21st century (2071–2100), annual integrated precipitation in Greenland under RCP8.5 (SSP58.5) is projected to increase by 277.9 (281.3) Gt relative to the 1986–2005 climatological mean, with a significant positive trend of 38.5 (42.9) Gt/dec (p < 0.05) post-2020, approximately twice that under RCP4.5 (SSP24.5). Under high emission scenarios, T2m will steadily increase by 5.2 (5.7) °C at the end of the 21st century and the northern amplifying effect of warming is more intense. In this context, northeast Greenland will increase the highest precipitation, with a trend of >30 mm/dec during 2020–2100. The Z500 rises higher from southeast to northwest Greenland due to global warming under medium and high emission scenarios. Model and scenario uncertainties are major sources of uncertainty at the end of the 21st century. Compared to CMIP5, the model uncertainty of CMIP6 decreases more but remained higher at the end of this century. The projections of northern Greenland are more reliable than those of other regions, with a lower total fractional uncertainty and a greater signal-to-noise ratio. Furthermore, we did not find an additional T2m increase due to internal variability. Under medium and high emission scenarios, Greenland near surface air warming is major owed to global warming. Considering the importance of current circulation anomalies and after removing the artificial increase in Z500, the decrease in ΔZ500 indicates that future warming has been underestimated under medium and high emission scenarios.

The historical Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) curated and augmented level-1 dataset

Abstract. The Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) consists of 31 automatic weather stations (AWSs) at 30 sites across the Greenland Ice Sheet. The first site was initiated in 1990, and the project has operated almost continuously since 1995 under the leadership of the late Konrad Steffen. The GC-Net AWS measured air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, downward and reflected shortwave irradiance, net radiation, and ice and firn temperatures. The majority of the GC-Net sites were located in the ice sheet accumulation area (17 AWSs), while 11 AWSs were located in the ablation area, and two sites (three AWSs) were located close to the equilibrium line altitude. Additionally, three AWSs of similar design to the GC-Net AWS were installed by Konrad Steffen's team on the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctica. After more than 3 decades of operation, the GC-Net AWSs are being decommissioned and replaced by new AWSs operated by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS). Therefore, making a reassessment of the historical GC-Net AWS data is necessary. We present a full reprocessing of the historical GC-Net AWS dataset with increased attention to the filtering of erroneous measurements, data correction and derivation of additional variables: continuous surface height, instrument heights, surface albedo, turbulent heat fluxes, and 10 m ice and firn temperatures. This new augmented GC-Net level-1 (L1) AWS dataset is now available at https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/VVXGUT (Steffen et al., 2023) and will continue to be refined. The processing scripts, latest data and a data user forum are available at https://github.com/GEUS-Glaciology-and-Climate/GC-Net-level-1-data-processing (last access: 30 November 2023). In addition to the AWS data, a comprehensive compilation of valuable metadata is provided: maintenance reports, yearly pictures of the stations and the station positions through time. This unique dataset provides more than 320 station years of high-quality atmospheric data and is available following FAIR (findable, accessible, interoperable, reusable) data and code practices.

A ∼5000 year multiproxy record of summer climate in NE Greenland

The High Arctic plays a vital role in Earth's climate system, and its ecosystems are highly sensitive to global climate change. High Arctic lakes are valuable sentinels of climate change, as their sediments integrate long-term natural climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic influences. Here, we present a high-resolution ∼5000 year-reconstruction of NE Greenland climate variability from Aucella Lake (74°N, 20°E) based on physical, chemical, and biological properties of lake sediments. We use CT-scans, hyperspectral imaging, organic matter, XRD, and diatom analyses to show that changing air temperatures were controlled by a mix of regional climatic changes and local landscape feedbacks. The latest Mid-Holocene (∼5.0–3.8 cal. ka BP) was characterized by relatively warmer conditions, while the onset of the Late-Holocene was marked by abrupt temperature decreases that coincided with the beginning of glacial advances elsewhere (∼3.8–3.4 cal. ka BP). From ∼3.4–2.4 cal. ka BP, the sedimentary record indicated progressive warming, with temperature peaking during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, although temperature rises were punctuated by abrupt, short-lived cold periods. From ∼1.1–0.05 cal. ka BP, the influence of landscape factors over the system diminished. Sedimentary indicators suggested a transition towards a colder, more humid climate, coinciding with the beginning of the Little Ice Age, that was characterized by a marked decrease in air temperature that reached minimum values at the end of this period. The last 50 years at Aucella Lake were marked by abrupt temperature rises, consistent with recently observed anthropogenic global warming. Our results illustrate the importance of high-resolution multiproxy studies for accurately characterizing lake linkages to their environment and climate.

Bipolar impact and phasing of Heinrich-type climate variability.

During the last ice age, the Laurentide Ice Sheet exhibited extreme iceberg discharge events that are recorded in North Atlantic sediments1. These Heinrich events have far-reaching climate impacts, including widespread disruptions to hydrological and biogeochemical cycles2-4. They occurred during Heinrich stadials-cold periods with strongly weakened Atlantic overturning circulation5-7. Heinrich-type variability is not distinctive in Greenland water isotope ratios, a well-dated site temperature proxy8, complicating efforts to assess their regional climate impact and phasing against Antarctic climate change. Here we show that Heinrich events have no detectable temperature impact on Greenland and cooling occurs at the onset of several Heinrich stadials, and that both types of Heinrich variability have a distinct imprint on Antarctic climate. Antarctic ice cores show accelerated warming that is synchronous with increases in methane during Heinrich events, suggesting an atmospheric teleconnection9, despite the absence of a Greenland climate signal. Greenland ice-core nitrogen stable isotope ratios, a sensitive temperature proxy, indicate an abrupt cooling of about three degrees Celsius at the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1 (17.8 thousand years before present, where present isdefined as 1950). Antarctic warming lags this cooling by 133 ± 93 years, consistent with an oceanic teleconnection. Paradoxically, proximal sites are less affected by Heinrich events than remote sites, suggesting spatially complex event dynamics.

Younger Dryas and early Holocene climate in south Greenland inferred from oxygen isotopes of chironomids, aquatic Moss, and Moss cellulose

Ice core records have long indicated that the Younger Dryas began and ended with large, abrupt climate shifts over Greenland. Key climatic features remain unknown, including the magnitude of warming during the Younger Dryas-Holocene transition along with the seasonality and spatial variability of Younger Dryas climate changes across Greenland. Here, we use geochemical and paleoecological proxies from lake sediments at Lake N14 in south Greenland to address these outstanding questions. Radiocarbon dating and diatom assemblages confirm early deglaciation and isolation of Lake N14 before ∼13,600 cal yr BP, consistent with previous work. Oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) of chironomid head capsules, bulk aquatic moss, and aquatic moss-derived cellulose are used to reconstruct oxygen isotopes of past lake water and annual precipitation. Oxygen isotope proxies indicate annual precipitation δ18O values increased by 5.9–7.7‰ at the end of the Younger Dryas. Following the Younger Dryas, moss and cellulose δ18O values show a clear decline in precipitation δ18O values of 2–3‰ from ∼11,540–11,340 cal yr BP that may correspond with the Preboreal Oscillation. Reconstructed precipitation δ18O values then gradually increased from 11,300–10,100 cal yr BP. All three aquatic organic materials register similar shifts in precipitation δ18O values over time, and they closely parallel the δ18O shifts observed in ice cores. This evidence strongly supports the utility of these methods for reconstructing lake water δ18O, and furthermore precipitation δ18O values where lake water reflects precipitation. The relatively large shift in isotopic composition of precipitation at Lake N14 suggests that shifts in temperature, precipitation seasonality, and/or moisture sources at the end of the Younger Dryas were even larger in south Greenland than they were in central Greenland, most likely because of the proximity to major changes in North Atlantic Ocean circulation. The annual air temperature change estimated at Lake N14 at the end of the Younger Dryas is also very large (∼18 ± 7 °C) compared to the summer warming previously inferred from chironomid species assemblages there (∼6 °C). This indicates that the strongest warming at the end of the Younger Dryas occurred in the winter season, consistent with past observations of intensified Younger Dryas seasonality at Lake N14 and elsewhere in Greenland.

Little Ice Age climate in southernmost Greenland inferred from quantitative geospatial analyses of alpine glacier reconstructions

Alpine glaciers are sensitive responders to climate fluctuations, especially to changes in summer temperature, and thus their past extents are invaluable indicators of past climate. Here, we leverage geomorphological evidence of past glacier extent to reconstruct the three-dimensional surfaces of 42 land-terminating paleoglaciers in southernmost Greenland and calculate their equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) during the presumed coldest interval of the Little Ice Age (LIA). We compare LIA paleoglacier ELAs with observed modern glacier ELAs (i.e. snowlines) to estimate the LIA summer temperature depression relative to present. On average, we find that ELAs rose 122 ± 64 m since the LIA, which corresponds to a summer temperature change of 1.1± 0.6 ° C, assuming no change in precipitation. Because there are minimal constraints on LIA precipitation anomalies in southernmost Greenland, we also report summer temperature changes for precipitation values ranging from a substantially drier to substantially wetter than modern LIA. When compared with independent temperature evidence, our results suggest LIA precipitation was similar to or slightly less than today. The alpine glaciers studied lost (on average) 56± 16% of their area and 44± 13% of their centerline length between the LIA culmination and 2019 CE. In general, smaller and lower elevation glaciers lost larger fractions of their area. We find no clear geographic patterns in the magnitudes of ELA, area, or length changes across the 9000 km2 study area despite its heterogeneous climate. This study demonstrates a workflow for regional-scale paleoglacier reconstruction and provides the first quantitative LIA summer paleotemperature estimate for southernmost Greenland via region-wide glacial evidence. Our work also suggests the need for reconstruction of a large number of glaciers to infer past regional climatic information, as individual glaciers may respond heterogeneously to climate perturbations leading to variable changes in their ELA and length.

Estimating global downward shortwave radiation from VIIRS data using a transfer-learning neural network

In recent years, machine learning (ML) has been successfully used in estimating downward shortwave radiation (DSR). To achieve global estimations, traditional ML models need sufficient ground measurements covering various atmospheric and surface conditions globally, which is difficult to accomplish. Training on the simulated data of a radiative transfer model (RTM) is a possible solution, but widely used RTMs ignore some complex cloud conditions which brings bias to simulations. In this study, a neural network applied with the transfer-learning (TL) concept is introduced to utilize both radiative transfer simulations and ground measurement data, achieving global DSR estimation with only top-of-atmosphere and surface albedo at local solar noon as inputs. The proposed method estimates both instantaneous and daily DSR from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data at 750-m resolution, and both the estimates are validated by 40 independent stations globally. The root mean-square error and relative root mean square error of instantaneous DSR validation over 25 Baseline Surface Radiation Network, seven Surface Radiation Network, and eight Greenland Climate Network stations in 2013 were 91.2 (16.1%), 106.3 (18.3%), 75.0 (24.2%) W/m2, respectively, and the daily validation achieved 30.8 (15.5%), 33.5 (17.6%), and 31.3 (14.4) W/m2, respectively. The proposed method presents significant high accuracy over polar regions and similar performances over other areas compared with traditional ML models, physics models (e.g., look-up tables and direct estimations), and existing DSR products. The algorithm is also applied to VIIRS swath data to test its global efficacy. Instantaneous mapping captures the spatial pattern of the cloud-mask product, and daily mapping shows spatial patterns similar to the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Synoptic TOA and surface fluxes and clouds product, but with more detail. Further analysis indicates that model performance is less sensitive to the quantity of training data after TL has been incorporated. This study demonstrates the advantages of TL on boosting both the generality and accuracy of DSR estimation, which can potentially be applied to other variable retrievals.

Impact of paleoclimate on present and future evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Using transient climate forcing based on simulations from the Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model (AWI-ESM), we simulate the evolution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the last interglacial (125 ka, kiloyear before present) to 2100 AD with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). The impact of paleoclimate, especially Holocene climate, on the present and future evolution of the GrIS is explored. Our simulations of the past show close agreement with reconstructions with respect to the recent timing of the peaks in ice volume and the climate of Greenland. The maximum and minimum ice volume at around 18-17 ka and 6-5 ka lag the respective extremes in climate by several thousand years, implying that the ice volume response of the GrIS strongly lags climatic changes. Given that Greenland's climate was getting colder from the Holocene Thermal Maximum (i.e., 8 ka) to the Pre-Industrial era, our simulation implies that the GrIS experienced growth from the mid-Holocene to the industrial era. Due to this background trend, the GrIS still gains mass until the second half of the 20th century, even though anthropogenic warming begins around 1850 AD. This is also in agreement with observational evidence showing mass loss of the GrIS does not begin earlier than the late 20th century. Our results highlight that the present evolution of the GrIS is not only controlled by the recent climate changes, but is also affected by paleoclimate, especially the relatively warm Holocene climate. We propose that the GrIS was not in equilibrium throughout the entire Holocene and that the slow response to Holocene climate needs to be represented in ice sheet simulations in order to predict ice mass loss, and therefore sea level rise, accurately.

An empirical algorithm to map perennial firn aquifers and ice slabs within the Greenland Ice Sheet using satellite L-band microwave radiometry

Abstract. Perennial firn aquifers are subsurface meltwater reservoirs consisting of a meters-thick water-saturated firn layer that can form on spatial scales as large as tens of kilometers. They have been observed within the percolation facies of glaciated regions experiencing intense seasonal surface melting and high snow accumulation. Widespread perennial firn aquifers have been identified within the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) via field expeditions, airborne ice-penetrating radar surveys, and satellite microwave sensors. In contrast, ice slabs are nearly continuous ice layers that can also form on spatial scales as large as tens of kilometers as a result of surface and subsurface water-saturated snow and firn layers sequentially refreezing following multiple melting seasons. They have been observed within the percolation facies of glaciated regions experiencing intense seasonal surface melting but in areas where snow accumulation is at least 25 % lower as compared to perennial firn aquifer areas. Widespread ice slabs have recently been identified within the GrIS via field expeditions and airborne ice-penetrating radar surveys, specifically in areas where perennial firn aquifers typically do not form. However, ice slabs have yet to be identified from space. Together, these two ice sheet features represent distinct, but related, sub-facies within the broader percolation facies of the GrIS that can be defined primarily by differences in snow accumulation, which influences the englacial hydrology and thermal characteristics of firn layers at depth. Here, for the first time, we use enhanced-resolution vertically polarized L-band brightness temperature (TVB) imagery (2015–2019) generated using observations collected over the GrIS by NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite to map perennial firn aquifer and ice slab areas together as a continuous englacial hydrological system. We use an empirical algorithm previously developed to map the extent of Greenland's perennial firn aquifers via fitting exponentially decreasing temporal L-band signatures to a set of sigmoidal curves. This algorithm is recalibrated to also map the extent of ice slab areas using airborne ice-penetrating radar surveys collected by NASA's Operation IceBridge (OIB) campaigns (2010–2017). Our SMAP-derived maps show that between 2015 and 2019, perennial firn aquifer areas extended over 64 000 km2, and ice slab areas extended over 76 000 km2. Combined together, these sub-facies are the equivalent of 24 % of the percolation facies of the GrIS. As Greenland's climate continues to warm, seasonal surface melting will increase in extent, intensity, and duration. Quantifying the possible rapid expansion of these sub-facies using satellite L-band microwave radiometry has significant implications for understanding ice-sheet-wide variability in englacial hydrology that may drive meltwater-induced hydrofracturing and accelerated ice flow as well as high-elevation meltwater runoff that can impact the mass balance and stability of the GrIS.

Greenland and the geopolitics of critical minerals

Greenland and the geopolitics of critical minerals

High-Quality Complete Genome Resource of Pathogenic Bacterium Pectobacterium atrosepticum Strain Green1 Isolated from Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Greenland.

Pectobacterium atrosepticum is a narrow-host-range, pectinolytic, plant-pathogenic bacterium causing blackleg of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) worldwide. Till present, several P. atrosepticum genomes have been sequenced and characterized in detail; however, all of these genomes have come from P. atrosepticum isolates from plants grown in temperate zones, not from hosts cultivated under different climatic conditions. Herewith, we present the first complete, high-quality genome of the P. atrosepticum strain Green1 isolated from potato plants grown under a subarctic climate in Greenland. The genome of P. atrosepticum strain Green1 consists of one chromosome of 4,959,719 bp, with a GC content of 51% and no plasmids. The genome contains 4,531 annotated features, including 4,179 protein-coding genes, 22 ribosomal RNA genes, 70 transfer RNA genes, 8 noncoding RNA genes, 2 CRISPRs, and 126 pseudogenes. We believe that the information in this first high-quality, complete, closed genome of P. atrosepticum strains isolated from host plants grown in a subarctic agricultural region will provide resources for comparative genomic studies and for analyses targeting climatic adaptation and ecological fitness mechanisms present in P. atrosepticum.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Weather and indoor climate in Greenland

To make a hygrothermal assessment of a building construction, e.g. wall or roof, weather files as well as information on indoor moisture load are needed, however only to some extent available for Greenlandic conditions. This paper describes a project that had a twofold aim: 1) create weather files for four different cities in Greenland in a simple way, 2) determine the typical moisture load in a Greenlandic dwelling to see if the international standard ISO 13788 is applicable in Greenland when describing indoor moisture load. The four chosen cities are placed at the west coast of Greenland. Hourly weather data of 10 years for the four cities were obtained from the meteorological institutes of Denmark and Greenland, from this a reference year with hourly values was created for each city. The paper also describes how incomplete data was treated. Five dwellings were chosen in each city to assess the indoor moisture load. Temperature and relative humidity were measured hourly in living rooms of these dwellings. Furthermore, outdoor temperature and relative humidity were measured in the four cities. The moisture load in the dwellings were scattered in humidity class 1-4, similar to what has been measured in Danish dwellings, consequently ISO 13788 may be applicable in Greenland.

Mediterranean faunal evolution and biochronological events during the last 24 kyr

We generated high-resolution biochronological records in the Mediterranean Sea covering the period extending to the Late-glacial. The present study is based on micropaleontological, sea-surface temperature (SST) and oxygen isotopic analyses performed along three well-dated deep-sea cores: REC1353, KET80–19 and MD84–641 recovered in the Siculo-Tunisian Strait, Tyrrhenian Sea and Levantine Basin, respectively. The quantitative distributional patterns of planktic foraminifera permitted to identify seven biozones based on the apparition and/or disappearance of the main specific taxa or by their noticeable abundance peaks. Abundance records display that major changes in planktic foraminiferal assemblages have a similar pattern mainly in central and western basins. In particular, four recognized bio-events can be used to establish or to improve the chronology of Mediterranean deep-sea cores. The comparison of the SST estimates and foraminiferal records with those of NGRIP ice-core shows a similarity between the Greenland climate and the Mediterranean hydrology. This indicates that the main climate changes recorded in the North Atlantic are globally in phase with those observed in the Mediterranean region.

Speleothem record of mild and wet mid-Pleistocene climate in northeast Greenland.

The five interglacials before the Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE) [c.430 thousand years (ka) ago] are generally considered to be globally cooler than those post-MBE. Inhomogeneities exist regionally, however, which suggest that the Arctic was warmer than present during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15a. Using the first speleothem record for the High Arctic, we investigate the climatic response of northeast Greenland between c.588 and c.549 ka ago. Our results indicate an enhanced warmth of at least +3.5°C relative to the present, leading to permafrost thaw and increased precipitation. We find that δ18O of precipitation was at least 3‰ higher than today and recognize two local cooling events (c.571 and c.594 ka ago) thought to be caused by freshwater forcing. Our results are important for improving understanding of the regional climatic response leading up to the MBE and specifically provide insights into the climatic response of a warmer Arctic.

Greenland climate simulations show high Eemian surface melt which could explain reduced total air content in ice cores

Abstract. This study presents simulations of Greenland surface melt for the Eemian interglacial period (∼130 000 to 115 000 years ago) derived from regional climate simulations with a coupled surface energy balance model. Surface melt is of high relevance due to its potential effect on ice core observations, e.g., lowering the preserved total air content (TAC) used to infer past surface elevation. An investigation of surface melt is particularly interesting for warm periods with high surface melt, such as the Eemian interglacial period. Furthermore, Eemian ice is the deepest and most compressed ice preserved on Greenland, resulting in our inability to identify melt layers visually. Therefore, simulating Eemian melt rates and associated melt layers is beneficial to improve the reconstruction of past surface elevation. Estimated TAC, based on simulated melt during the Eemian, could explain the lower TAC observations. The simulations show Eemian surface melt at all deep Greenland ice core locations and an average of up to ∼30 melt days per year at Dye-3, corresponding to more than 600 mm water equivalent (w.e.) of annual melt. For higher ice sheet locations, between 60 and 150 mmw.e.yr-1 on average are simulated. At the summit of Greenland, this yields a refreezing ratio of more than 25 % of the annual accumulation. As a consequence, high melt rates during warm periods should be considered when interpreting Greenland TAC fluctuations as surface elevation changes. In addition to estimating the influence of melt on past TAC in ice cores, the simulated surface melt could potentially be used to identify coring locations where Greenland ice is best preserved.

Long-term surface energy balance of the western Greenland Ice Sheet and the role of large-scale circulation variability

Abstract. We present the surface energy balance (SEB) of the western Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) using an energy balance model forced with hourly observations from nine automatic weather stations (AWSs) along two transects: the Kangerlussuaq (K) transect with seven AWSs in the southwest and the Thule (T) transect with two AWSs in the northwest. Modeled and observed surface temperatures for non-melting conditions agree well with RMSEs of 1.1–1.6 K, while reasonable agreement is found between modeled and observed 10 d cumulative ice melt. Absorbed shortwave radiation (Snet) is the main energy source for melting (M), followed by the sensible heat flux (Qh). The multiyear average seasonal cycle of SEB components shows that Snet and M peak in July at all AWSs. The turbulent fluxes of sensible (Qh) and latent heat (Ql) decrease significantly with elevation, and the latter becomes negative at higher elevations, partly offsetting Qh. Average June, July and August (JJA) albedo values are &lt;0.6 for stations below 1000 m a.s.l. and &gt;0.7 for the higher stations. The near-surface climate variables and surface energy fluxes from reanalysis products ERA-Interim, ERA5 and the regional climate model RACMO2.3 were compared to the AWS values. The newer ERA5 product only significantly improves ERA-Interim for albedo. The regional model RACMO2.3, which has higher resolution (5.5 km) and a dedicated snow/ice module, unsurprisingly outperforms the reanalyses for (near-)surface climate variables, but the reanalyses are indispensable in detecting dependencies of west Greenland climate and melt on large-scale circulation variability. We correlate ERA5 with the AWS data to show a significant positive correlation of western GrIS summer surface temperature and melt with the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and weaker and opposite correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This analysis may further help to explain melting patterns on the western GrIS from the perspective of circulation anomalies.

The temperature increase in Greenland has accelerated in the past five years

Abstract Understanding the changes in Greenland's temperature is important for assessing and predicting the mass of the Greenland ice sheet, which plays an important role in sea level rise. In this study, we analyzed the annual and seasonal coastal Greenland's temperatures during the period 1952–2017 (focusing on the period 2013–2017) based on a dataset obtained from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). Overall, the annual coastal Greenland's temperature increased during 1952–2017 at a rate of 0.23 °C decade−1, especially in the southeastern (0.70 °C decade−1) and northern (0.42 °C decade−1) regions of the island. From the changes in the seasonal coastal Greenland's composite temperature (CT), winter exhibited the largest change rate (0.28 °C decade−1), and the summer CT increased by 0.25 °C decade−1, while the spring CT increased by 0.17 °C decade−1 with less variation. The temperature increase accelerated during 2013–2017 according to Mann-Kendall (M-K) tests, especially in the northeastern and northern regions of the island. The seasonal temperature change of the whole island decreased in the following order: annual > autumn > summer > winter > spring. We also analyzed the annual inland temperature change during the period 1997–2017 based on a dataset obtained from the Greenland Climate Network; the results indicated that the inland temperature increased by 0.13 °C decade−1. Pearson correlation analysis was used to determine the teleconnection relationship between the coastal temperatures and large-scale atmosphere-ocean climate indexes, and we found that the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Tropical Northern Atlantic Index (TNA), North Tropical Atlantic Index (NTA), Caribbean Index (CAR), Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), East Atlantic (EA) and Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) have significant positive correlations with the coastal temperature in most months, except in February and May. However, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Eastern Asia/Western Russia (EAWR) show significant negative correlations with temperature. Overall, there exists a time lag effect between the climate indexes (except for the GBI, AO and NAO) and temperature. From the application of the random forest model, we found that the GBI, NAO, CO2, AMO, N2O, SF6, CH4, and Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) are the most important variables that influenced the CT changes during 1979–2017. Finally, we calculated the contribution rates of the most important variables to temperature change during the period 1979–2017 and showed that the contribution rates of the GBI, CO2 and NOI to temperature change were 47.30%, 35.68%, and 17.02%, respectively.

Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period

Abstract. The last glacial period is characterized by a number of millennial climate events that have been identified in both Greenland and Antarctic ice cores and that are abrupt in Greenland climate records. The mechanisms governing this climate variability remain a puzzle that requires a precise synchronization of ice cores from the two hemispheres to be resolved. Previously, Greenland and Antarctic ice cores have been synchronized primarily via their common records of gas concentrations or isotopes from the trapped air and via cosmogenic isotopes measured on the ice. In this work, we apply ice core volcanic proxies and annual layer counting to identify large volcanic eruptions that have left a signature in both Greenland and Antarctica. Generally, no tephra is associated with those eruptions in the ice cores, so the source of the eruptions cannot be identified. Instead, we identify and match sequences of volcanic eruptions with bipolar distribution of sulfate, i.e. unique patterns of volcanic events separated by the same number of years at the two poles. Using this approach, we pinpoint 82 large bipolar volcanic eruptions throughout the second half of the last glacial period (12–60 ka). This improved ice core synchronization is applied to determine the bipolar phasing of abrupt climate change events at decadal-scale precision. In response to Greenland abrupt climatic transitions, we find a response in the Antarctic water isotope signals (δ18O and deuterium excess) that is both more immediate and more abrupt than that found with previous gas-based interpolar synchronizations, providing additional support for our volcanic framework. On average, the Antarctic bipolar seesaw climate response lags the midpoint of Greenland abrupt δ18O transitions by 122±24 years. The time difference between Antarctic signals in deuterium excess and δ18O, which likewise informs the time needed to propagate the signal as described by the theory of the bipolar seesaw but is less sensitive to synchronization errors, suggests an Antarctic δ18O lag behind Greenland of 152±37 years. These estimates are shorter than the 200 years suggested by earlier gas-based synchronizations. As before, we find variations in the timing and duration between the response at different sites and for different events suggesting an interaction of oceanic and atmospheric teleconnection patterns as well as internal climate variability.

Greenland temperature and precipitation over the last 20 000 years using data assimilation

Abstract. Reconstructions of past temperature and precipitation are fundamental to modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet and assessing its sensitivity to climate. Paleoclimate information is sourced from proxy records and climate-model simulations; however, the former are spatially incomplete while the latter are sensitive to model dynamics and boundary conditions. Efforts to combine these sources of information to reconstruct spatial patterns of Greenland climate over glacial–interglacial cycles have been limited by assumptions of fixed spatial patterns and a restricted use of proxy data. We avoid these limitations by using paleoclimate data assimilation to create independent reconstructions of mean-annual temperature and precipitation for the last 20 000 years. Our method uses oxygen isotope ratios of ice and accumulation rates from long ice-core records and extends this information to all locations across Greenland using spatial relationships derived from a transient climate-model simulation. Standard evaluation metrics for this method show that our results capture climate at locations without ice-core records. Our results differ from previous work in the reconstructed spatial pattern of temperature change during abrupt climate transitions; this indicates a need for additional proxy data and additional transient climate-model simulations. We investigate the relationship between precipitation and temperature, finding that it is frequency dependent and spatially variable, suggesting that thermodynamic scaling methods commonly used in ice-sheet modeling are overly simplistic. Our results demonstrate that paleoclimate data assimilation is a useful tool for reconstructing the spatial and temporal patterns of past climate on timescales relevant to ice sheets.