Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Research Articles

How does a change in climate variability impact the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance?

Abstract. Given the long response time of ice sheets, simulations of the Greenland ice sheet typically exceed the availability of input climate data to reliably simulate the fast processes underlying surface mass balance. Strong feedback processes are known to make the mass balance sensitive to inter- and intra-annual variability. Even simulations with climate models do not always cover the full period of interest, motivating bridging these gaps using relatively coarsely resolved climate reconstructions or temporal interpolation methods. However, both of these approaches usually only provide information about the climatological average but not variability. We investigate how this simplification impacts the surface mass balance using the BErgen Snow SImulator. The model was run for up to 500 years using the same atmospheric climatology but different synthetic variabilities. While changing inter-annual variations has an impact of less than 5 % on the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, neglecting intra-annual variability by using a daily climatology causes a 40 % change in mass balance. Decomposing the total effect into contributions from different input variables, the biggest contributor is precipitation followed by temperature. Using a daily climatology, a small amount of snowfall every day overestimates the albedo and thus surface mass balance (SMB). We propose a correction that re-captures the effect of intermittent precipitation, reducing the SMB overestimation to 15 %–25 %. We conclude that simulations of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance should be forced with a transient climate, in particular for models that are calibrated with transient data.

Impacts of Greenland Ice Sheet on Blocking in Idealized Simulations

Abstract As the only remaining ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) plays a crucial role in influencing atmospheric circulations, particularly with its rapid melting under global warming. In this paper, the influences of GrIS topography and surface thermal conditions are investigated by a series of aquaplanet experiments. The results show that the GrIS topography induces stationary waves and favors more blocking events through the generation of negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, while it tends to suppress local storm activities through the induced stationary waves. The surface cooling center of the GrIS is found to strengthen the jet streams by enhancing the meridional temperature gradient and thermal wind, while it causes the PV and static stability to increase during near-Greenland blocking days, thereby disfavoring blocking onset. Altogether, the topography and surface thermal effects of GrIS appear to compete with each other so that the net effect would determine the final response. Nevertheless, nonlinearity is found in both GrIS-topography alone and GrIS-surface temperature alone experiments, where nonlinear responses of atmospheric circulation are detected when the GrIS topography height or surface temperature exceeds their critical values, respectively. Hence, through this study, the response of the blocking in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects of topography and surface thermal conditions may shed light on comprehending the underlying mechanism of blocking alteration in a changing climate. Significance Statement Although there have been numerous observation-based studies showing that the blocking around Greenland has increased over the past few decades, which is a predominant driver in accelerating the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melting, the reasons for this change are still unclear. In addition, the impact of GrIS on blocking still needs investigation. Through idealized aquaplanet simulations, this study examines the effect of GrIS’s topography and surface thermal conditions upon blocking onset. It suggests the nonlinearity of the blocking response in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects in the variation of the height and surface temperature of GrIS. This study will enhance our understanding of possible changes in blocking due to global warming.

Polar Low Circulation Enhances Greenland's West Coast Cloud Surface Warming

AbstractMass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) plays a major role in the global sea level rise. The west coast of the GrIS has contributed 1,000 Gt of the 4,488 Gt GrIS mass loss between 2002 and 2021, making it a hotspot for GrIS mass loss. Surface melting is driven by changes in the radiative budget at the surface, which are modulated by clouds. Previous works have shown the impact of North Atlantic transport for influencing cloudiness over the GrIS. Here we used space‐based lidar cloud profile observations to show that a polar low circulation promotes the presence of low clouds over the GrIS west coast that warm radiatively the GrIS surface during the melt season. Polar low circulation transports moisture and low clouds from the sea to the west of Greenland up over the GrIS west coast through the melt season. The concomitance of the increasing presence of low cloud in fall over the Baffin Sea due to seasonal sea‐ice retreat and a maximum occurrence of Polar low circulation in September results in a maximum of low cloud fraction (∼14% at 2.5 km above sea level) over the GrIS west coast in September. These low clouds warm radiatively the GrIS west coast surface up to 80 W/m2 locally. This warming contributes to an average increase of 10 W/m2 of cloud surface warming in September compared to July on the GrIS west coast. Overall, this study suggests that regional atmospheric processes independent from North Atlantic transport may also influence the GrIS melt.

Influence of Supraglacial Lakes on Accuracy of Inversion of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt Data in Different Passive Microwave Bands

The occurrence of Supraglacial Lakes (SGLs) may influence the signals acquired with microwave radiometers, which may result in a degree of uncertainty when employing microwave radiometer data for the detection of surface melt. Accurate monitoring of surface melting requires a reasonable assessment of this uncertainty. However, there is a scarcity of research in this field. Therefore, in this study, we computed surface melt in the vicinity of Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs) by employing Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Ka-band data and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite L-band data and extracted SGL pixels by utilizing Sentinel-2 data. A comparison between surface melt results derived from AWS air temperature estimates and those obtained with remote sensing inversion in the two different bands was conducted for sites below the mean snowline elevation during the summers of 2016 to 2020. Compared with sites with no SGLs, the commission error (CO) of DMSP morning and evening data at sites where these water bodies were present increased by 36% and 30%, respectively, and the number of days with CO increased by 12 and 3 days, respectively. The omission error (OM) of SMOS morning and evening data increased by 33% and 32%, respectively, and the number of days with OM increased by 17 and 21 days, respectively. Identifying the source of error is a prerequisite for the improvement of surface melt algorithms, for which this study provides a basis.

The Effect of Physically Based Ice Radiative Processes on Greenland Ice Sheet Albedo and Surface Mass Balance in E3SM

AbstractA significant portion of surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is due to dark ice regions in the ablation zone, where solar absorption is influenced by the physical properties of the ice, light absorbing constituents (LACs), and the overlying crustal surface or melt ponds. Earth system models (ESMs) typically prescribe the albedo of ice surfaces as a constant value in the visible and near‐infrared spectral regions. This work advances ESM ice radiative transfer modeling by (a) incorporating a physically based radiative transfer model (SNow, ICe and Aerosol Radiation model Adding‐Doubling Version 4; SNICAR‐ADv4) into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), (b) determining spatially and temporally varying bare ice physical properties over the GrIS ablation zone from satellite observations to inform SNICAR‐ADv4, and (c) assessing the impacts on simulated GrIS albedo and surface mass balance associated with modeling of more realistic bare ice albedo. GrIS‐wide bare ice albedo in E3SMv2 is overestimated by ∼4% in the visible and ∼7% in the near‐infrared wavelengths compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Our bare ice physical property retrieval method found that LACs, ice crustal surfaces, and melt ponds reduce visible albedo by 30% in the bare ice region of the GrIS ablation zone. The realistic bare ice albedo reduces surface mass balance by ∼145 Gt, or 0.4 mm of sea‐level equivalent between 2000 and 2021 compared to the default E3SM. This work highlights the importance of simulating bare ice albedo accurately and realistically to improve our ability to quantify changes in the GrIS surface mass and radiative energy budgets.

Recent warming trends of the Greenland ice sheet documented by historical firn and ice temperature observations and machine learning

Abstract. Surface melt on the Greenland ice sheet has been increasing in intensity and extent over the last decades due to Arctic atmospheric warming. Surface melt depends on the surface energy balance, which includes the atmospheric forcing but also the thermal budget of the snow, firn and ice near the ice sheet surface. The temperature of the ice sheet subsurface has been used as an indicator of the thermal state of the ice sheet's surface. Here, we present a compilation of 4612 measurements of firn and ice temperature at 10 m below the surface (T10 m) across the ice sheet, spanning from 1912 to 2022. The measurements are either instantaneous or monthly averages. We train an artificial neural network model (ANN) on 4597 of these point observations, weighted by their relative representativity, and use it to reconstruct T10 m over the entire Greenland ice sheet for the period 1950–2022 at a monthly timescale. We use 10-year averages and mean annual values of air temperature and snowfall from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset as model input. The ANN indicates a Greenland-wide positive trend of T10 m at 0.2 ∘C per decade during the 1950–2022 period, with a cooling during 1950–1985 (−0.4 ∘C per decade) followed by a warming during 1985–2022 (+0.7 ∘ per decade). Regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2.3p2 and MARv3.12 show mixed results compared to the observational T10 m dataset, with mean differences ranging from −0.4 ∘C (HIRHAM) to 1.2 ∘C (MAR) and root mean squared differences ranging from 2.8 ∘C (HIRHAM) to 4.7 ∘C (MAR). The observation-based ANN also reveals an underestimation of the subsurface warming trends in climate models for the bare-ice and dry-snow areas. The subsurface warming brings the Greenland ice sheet surface closer to the melting point, reducing the amount of energy input required for melting. Our compilation documents the response of the ice sheet subsurface to atmospheric warming and will enable further improvements of models used for ice sheet mass loss assessment and reduce the uncertainty in projections.

A stochastic parameterization of ice sheet surface mass balance for the Stochastic Ice-Sheet and Sea-Level System Model (StISSM v1.0)

Abstract. Many scientific and societal questions that draw on ice sheet modeling necessitate sampling a wide range of potential climatic changes and realizations of internal climate variability. For example, coastal planning literature demonstrates a demand for probabilistic sea level projections with quantified uncertainty. Further, robust attribution of past and future ice sheet change to specific processes or forcings requires a full understanding of the space of possible ice sheet behaviors. The wide sampling required to address such questions is computationally infeasible with sophisticated numerical climate models at the resolution required to accurately force ice sheet models. Stochastic generation of climate forcing of ice sheets offers a complementary alternative. Here, we describe a method to construct a stochastic generator for ice sheet surface mass balance varying in time and space. We demonstrate the method with an application to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance for 1980–2012. We account for spatial correlations among glacier catchments using sparse covariance techniques, and we apply an elevation-dependent downscaling to recover gridded surface mass balance fields suitable for forcing an ice sheet model while including feedback from changing ice sheet surface elevation. The efficiency gained in the stochastic method supports large-ensemble simulations of ice sheet change in a new stochastic ice sheet model. We provide open source Python workflows to support use of our stochastic approach for a broad range of applications.

Cloud- and ice-albedo feedbacks drive greater Greenland Ice Sheet sensitivity to warming in CMIP6 than in CMIP5

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass since the 1990s as a direct consequence of rising temperatures and has been projected to continue to lose mass at an accelerating pace throughout the 21st century, making it one of the largest contributors to future sea-level rise. The latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models produce a greater Arctic amplification signal and therefore also a notably larger mass loss from the GrIS when compared to the older CMIP5 projections, despite similar forcing levels from greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is also argued that the strength of regional factors, such as melt–albedo feedbacks and cloud-related feedbacks, will partly impact future melt and sea-level rise contribution, yet little is known about the role of these regional factors in producing differences in GrIS surface melt projections between CMIP6 and CMIP5. In this study, we use high-resolution (15 km) regional climate model simulations over the GrIS performed using the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) to physically downscale six CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and five CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 extreme high-emission-scenario simulations. Here, we show a greater annual mass loss from the GrIS at the end of the 21st century but also for a given temperature increase over the GrIS, when comparing CMIP6 to CMIP5. We find a greater sensitivity of Greenland surface mass loss in CMIP6 centred around summer and autumn, yet the difference in mass loss is the largest during autumn with a reduction of 27.7 ± 9.5 Gt per season for a regional warming of +6.7 ∘C and 24.6 Gt per season more mass loss than in CMIP5 RCP8.5 simulations for the same warming. Assessment of the surface energy budget and cloud-related feedbacks suggests a reduction in high clouds during summer and autumn – despite enhanced cloud optical depth during autumn – to be the main driver of the additional energy reaching the surface, subsequently leading to enhanced surface melt and mass loss in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. Our analysis highlights that Greenland is losing more mass in CMIP6 due to two factors: (1) a (known) greater sensitivity to greenhouse gas emissions and therefore warmer temperatures and (2) previously unnotified cloud-related surface energy budget changes that enhance the GrIS sensitivity to warming.

Brief communication: Surface energy balance differences over Greenland between ERA5 and ERA-Interim

Abstract. We compare the main atmospheric drivers of the melt season over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in ERA5 and ERA-Interim (ERAI) in their overlapping period 1979–2018. In summer, ERA5 differs significantly from ERAI, especially in the melt regions. Small-scale ERA5 − ERAI differences near the ice sheet's margins and over steep slopes can be explained by the different resolution, while the large-scale differences indicate a different representation of physical processes in the two reanalyses: averaged over the lower parts of the GrIS, the mean near-surface air temperature is 1 K lower, while the mean downward shortwave radiation at the surface is on average 15 W m−2 higher than in ERAI. Comparison with observational weather station data shows a significant warm bias in ERAI and, for ERA5, a significant positive bias in downward shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS surface mass balance from the ERAI surface energy balance need to be carefully recalibrated before converting to ERA5 forcing.

Glacier melt detection at different sites of Greenland ice sheet using dual-polarized Sentinel-1 images

ABSTRACT Synectic Aperture Radar (SAR) backscatter coefficient is sensitive to glacier surface physical characteristic changes, including the states of melting and refreezing, but it is also sensitive to incidence angle variation. This study explores the capability of monitoring Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting status with Sentinel-1 dual-polarized images by referring to Automatic Weather Station (AWS) records. Sentinel-1 SAR images at five coastal regions of the GrIS are obtained from 2017 to 2021. The backscatter coefficients are normalized to an incidence angle of 30° with an empirical model. Time series of five backscatter coefficients profiles covering AWS illustrates different patterns of the ice surface dielectric constant dynamics in different elevations. The wet snow radar zone shows clear backscatter coefficients decreasing during the melting seasons, but the bare ice radar zone behaves more complexly during the melting seasons. The numbers of melting days at different elevations are also derived for each profile based on −3 dB backscatter coefficient decrease of HH and/or HV polarization, showing the heterogeneous ablation processes over the GrIS. The daily maximum 2 m air temperature on two consecutive days (before and on the SAR acquisition day) exceeds 0°C, and the daily average 2 m air temperature exceeds −0.5°C on the SAR acquisition day that was recorded by the AWS finds good agreements with the −3 dB decrease of the backscatter coefficients, suggesting the GrIS surface melting can be well captured by dual-polarized Sentinel-1 C-band SAR images. The overall agreement and Kappa coefficients are mostly better than 0.85 and 0.70, respectively, for HH images and 0.80 and 0.60, respectively, for HV images, suggesting a better performance of the co-polarized image. High temporal resolution and wide-swath SAR sequence imagery provide suitable data sources for monitoring glacier surface melting-refreezing stats; further analysis is requested to quantitatively link the volume of melting with backscatter coefficient and other SAR data sources.

Snowmelt detection in Greenland ice sheet based on AMSR2 89GHz

The snowmelt on the surface of the Greenland ice sheet can show the climate change in the Arctic. In order to obtain high spatial resolution and high precision results for snowmelt detection on the polar ice sheet surface, a method of snowmelt detection based on an Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-2 (AMSR-2) 89GHz channel is presented. Firstly, the stable relationship between the polarization ratio of 89GHz data and 36GHz data under clear and cloudless weather conditions is used to screen out the 89GHz data that is not affected by external factors such as clouds and water vapor. Then, the Nobuyuki Otsu (Otsu) method is used to obtain the freeze-thaw threshold, and the snowmelt detection results of the ice sheet surface are obtained from the unaffected data by cloud conditions. The areas affected by cloud cover are replaced by the snowmelt detection results of the ice sheet surface from the gradient ratio (GR) model based on 19GHz and 37GHz horizontal polarization data. Finally, we get the snowmelt detection results of the Greenland ice sheet surface. To verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method, the results are compared with those of the cross-polarized gradient ratio algorithm (XPGR) and the simple physical model algorithm. The snowmelt area obtained by our method is between the XPGR and the simple physical model, and the snowmelt trend of our method and the simple physical model algorithm is closer. Then the results of the three algorithms are compared and analyzed with the temperature data from the automatic weather stations showing that the results obtained by our method are closer to the measurement data.

Greenland-Ice-Sheet Surface Temperature and Melt Extent from 2000 to 2020 and Implications for Mass Balance

Accurate monitoring of surface temperature and melting on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is important for tracking the ice sheet’s mass balance as well as global and Arctic climate change. Using a moderate-resolution-imaging-spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived land-surface-temperature (LST) data product with a resolution of 1 km from 2000 to 2020, the temporal and spatial variations of annual and seasonal ‘clear-sky’ surface temperature were evaluated. We also monitored summer surface melting and studied the relationship between the mass balance of the ice sheet and changes in surface temperature and melting. The results show that the mean annual LST during the study period is −24.86 ± 5.46 °C, with the highest of −22.48 ± 5.61 °C in 2010 and the lowest temperature of −26.49 ± 5.30 °C in 2015. With the change of season, the spatial variation of the ice-sheet surface temperature changes greatly. 2012 and 2019 experienced the warmest summers (−5.92 ± 4.01 °C and −6.51 ± 3.93 °C), with extreme cumulative melting detected on the ice-sheet surface (89.9% and 89.7%, respectively), and 2002 also experienced a greater extent of melting. But short period of melt in 2002 and 2019 (30.6% and 31.4%, respectively), accounted for a larger proportion, with neither the duration nor intensity of the melt reaching that of 2012. There is a strong correlation between the GrIS surface temperature and its mass balance. By fitting the relationship between surface temperature and mass balance, it was found that 93.83% (6.17%) of the ice-sheet response to surface-temperature change was via surface-mass balance (discharge and basal-mass balance).

High‐Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to Preserve the Arctic

AbstractStratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been shown in climate models to reduce some impacts of global warming in the Arctic, including the loss of sea ice, permafrost thaw, and reduction of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass; SAI at high latitudes could preferentially target these impacts. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model to simulate two Arctic‐focused SAI strategies, which inject at 60°N latitude each spring with injection rates adjusted to either maintain September Arctic sea ice at 2030 levels (“Arctic Low”) or restore it to 2010 levels (“Arctic High”). Both simulations maintain or restore September sea ice to within 10% of their respective targets, reduce permafrost thaw, and increase GrIS surface mass balance by reducing runoff. Arctic High reduces these impacts more effectively than a globally focused SAI strategy that injects similar quantities of SO2 at lower latitudes. However, Arctic‐focused SAI is not merely a “reset button” for the Arctic climate, but brings about a novel climate state, including changes to the seasonal cycles of Northern Hemisphere temperature and sea ice and less high‐latitude carbon uptake relative to SSP2‐4.5. Additionally, while Arctic‐focused SAI produces the most cooling near the pole, its effects are not confined to the Arctic, including detectable cooling throughout most of the northern hemisphere for both simulations, increased mid‐latitude sulfur deposition, and a southward shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. For these reasons, it would be incorrect to consider Arctic‐focused SAI as “local” geoengineering, even when compared to a globally focused strategy.

Impact of Grids and Dynamical Cores in CESM2.2 on the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

AbstractSix different configurations, a mixture of grids and atmospheric dynamical cores available in the Community Earth System Model, version 2.2 (CESM2.2), are evaluated for their skill in representing the climate of the Arctic and the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The finite‐volume dynamical core uses structured, latitude‐longitude grids, whereas the spectral‐element dynamical core is built on unstructured meshes, permitting grid flexibility such as quasi‐uniform grid spacing globally. The 1°–2° latitude‐longitude and quasi‐uniform unstructured grids systematically overestimate both accumulation and ablation over the GrIS. Of these 1°–2° grids, the latitude‐longitude grids outperform the quasi‐uniform unstructured grids because they have more degrees of freedom to represent the GrIS. Two Arctic‐refined meshes, with 1/4° and 1/8° refinement over Greenland, were developed for the spectral‐element dynamical core and are documented here as newly supported configurations in CESM2.2. The Arctic meshes substantially improve the simulated clouds and precipitation rates in the Arctic. Over Greenland, these meshes skillfully represent accumulation and ablation processes, leading to a more realistic GrIS surface mass balance. As CESM is in the process of transitioning away from conventional latitude‐longitude grids, these new Arctic‐refined meshes improve the representation of polar processes in CESM by recovering resolution lost in the transition to quasi‐uniform grids, albeit at increased computational cost.

Supraglacial streamflow and meteorological drivers from southwest Greenland

Abstract. Greenland ice sheet surface runoff is drained through supraglacial stream networks. This evacuation influences surface mass balance as well as ice dynamics. However, in situ observations of meltwater discharge through these stream networks are rare. In this study, we present 46 discrete discharge measurements and continuous water level measurements for 62 d spanning the majority of of the melt season (13 June to 13 August) in 2016 for a 0.6 km2 supraglacial stream catchment in southwest Greenland. The result is an unprecedentedly long record of supraglacial discharge that captures both diurnal variability and changes over the melt season. A comparison of surface energy fluxes to stream discharge reveals shortwave radiation as the primary driver of melting. However, during high-melt episodes, the contribution of shortwave radiation to melt energy is reduced by ∼40 % (from 1.13 to 0.73 proportion). Instead, the relative contribution of longwave radiation, sensible heat fluxes, and latent heat fluxes to overall melt increases by ∼24 %, 6 %, and 10 % (proportion increased from −0.32 to −0.08, 0.28 to 0.34, and −0.04 to 0.06) respectively. Our data also identify that the timing of daily maximum discharge during clear-sky days shifts from 16:00 local time (i.e., 2 h 45 min after solar noon) in late June to 14:00 in late July and then rapidly returns to 16:00 in early August. The change in the timing of daily maximum discharge could be attributed to the expansion and contraction of the stream network, caused by skin temperatures that likely fell below freezing at night. The abrupt shift, in early August, in the timing of daily maximum discharge coincides with a drop in air temperature, a drop in the amount of water temporarily stored in weathering crust, and a decreasing covariance between stream velocity and discharge. Further work is needed to investigate if these results can be transferable to larger catchments and uncover if rapid shifts in the timing of peak discharge are widespread across Greenland supraglacial streams and thus have an impact on meltwater delivery to the subglacial system and ice dynamics.

North Atlantic Footprint of Summer Greenland Ice Sheet Melting on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales: A Greenland Blocking Perspective

AbstractRecent rapid melting of the summer Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its impact on Earth’s climate has attracted much attention. In this paper, we establish a connection between the melting of GrIS and the variability of summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the North Atlantic on interannual to interdecadal time scales through changes in subseasonal Greenland blocking (GB). It is found that the latitude and width of GB are important for the spatial patterns of the GrIS melting. The melting of the GrIS on interdecadal time scales is most prominent for the positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation phase (AMO+) because the high-latitude GB and its large width, long lifetime, and slow decay are favored. However, the North Atlantic mid-high latitude warm–cold–warm (cold–warm–cold) tripole, referred to as the NAT+(NAT−) pattern, on interannual time scales tends to strengthen (weaken) the role of AMO+in the GrIS melting, especially on the northern or northeastern periphery of Greenland, by promoting (inhibiting) high-latitude GB and increasing (decreasing) its width. It is further revealed that AMO+(NAT+) favors the persistence and width of GB mainly through producing weak summer zonal winds and a small summer meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes at 55°–70°N (55°–65°N) compared to the role of negative AMO (NAT−). The event frequency and zonal width of GB events and their poleward shift are favored by the combination of NAT+with AMO+. In contrast, the combination of NAT−and AMO+tends to suppress reduced summer zonal winds and PVy, thus inhibiting the event frequency of GB events and their poleward shift and zonal width.Significance StatementRapid melting of the summer Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been observed to frequently occur, especially after the year 2000, leading to a rise in sea level and other effects on Earth’s climate. The physical cause of the rapid melting of the GrIS is an important area of research. We establish a connection between the summer melting of the GrIS and different sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the North Atlantic via changes in Greenland blocking. Although the positive Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO+) phase favors the overall melting of GrIS, the phase of the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) SST pattern modulates the strength and location of the GrIS melting. The positive NAT phase (NAT+) with a warm–cold–warm tripole structure in the North Atlantic mid-high latitudes and AMO+combine to result in a strong warm SST anomaly in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic north of 60°N, which promotes the melting of GrIS on the western, northern, and northeastern peripheries of Greenland via high-latitude Greenland blocking with an increased zonal width. The combination of the negative NAT phase (NAT−) with a cold–warm–cold tripole structure and AMO+tends to suppress this effect. Thus, our results provide a new understanding of why the melting of GrIS shows a strong variability in strength and region.

Meteorological effects and impacts of the 10 June 2021 solar eclipse over the British Isles, Iceland and Greenland

We present a pioneering report of the meteorological effects of a partial solar eclipse across a wide region. Using large networks of official weather stations and a regional climate model simulation, we detected meteorological effects of the 10 June 2021 eclipse in the UK, Iceland and Greenland. A meteorological model was used to show that the eclipse decreased the daily Greenland Ice Sheet surface melt by ~10%. Solar photovoltaic and wind renewable energy production across the UK were also affected.

Summer Greenland Blocking Diversity and Its Impact on the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

AbstractThe increase in Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface runoff since the turn of the century has been linked to a rise in Greenland blocking frequency. However, a range of synoptic patterns can be considered blocked flow and efforts that summarize all blocking types indiscriminately likely fail to capture consequential differences in GrIS response. To account for these differences, we employ ERA5 reanalysis to identify summer blocking using two independent blocking metrics: the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) and the blocking index of Pelly and Hoskins (2003, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<0743:ANPOB>2.0.CO;2). We then conduct a self‐organizing map analysis to objectively classify synoptic conditions during Greenland blocking episodes and identify three primary blocking types: (a) a high‐amplitude Omega block, (b) a lower‐amplitude, stationary summer ridge, and (c) a cyclonic wave breaking pattern. Using Modèle Atmosphérique Régional output, we document the spatiotemporal progression of the surface energy and mass balance for each blocking type. Relative to all blocking episodes, summer ridge patterns produce more melt over the southern ice sheet, Omega blocks produce more melt across the northern ice sheet, and cyclonic wave breaking patterns produce more melt in northeast Greenland. Our results indicate that the recent trend in summer Greenland blocking was largely driven by an increase in Omega patterns and suggest that Omega blocks have played a central role in the recent acceleration of GrIS mass loss. Furthermore, the GBI exhibited a relative bias toward Omega patterns, which may help explain why it has measured stronger trends in summer Greenland blocking than other blocking metrics.

Supraglacial Drainage Efficiency of the Greenland Ice Sheet Estimated From Remote Sensing and Climate Models

AbstractSupraglacial stream/river catchments drain large volumes of surface meltwater off the southwestern Greenland Ice Sheet surface. Previous studies note a strong seasonal evolution of their drainage density (Dd), a classic measure of drainage efficiency defined as open channel length per unit catchment area, but a direct correlation between Dd and surface meltwater runoff (R) has not been established. We use 27 high‐resolution (∼0.5 m) satellite images to map seasonally evolving Dd for four GrIS supraglacial catchments, with elevations ranging from 1,100 m to 1,700 m. We find a positive linear correlation (r2 = 0.70, p < 0.01) between Dd and simulations of runoff production from two climate models (MAR v3.11 and MERRA‐2). Applying this R‐Dd empirical relationship to climate model output enables parameterization of spatial and temporal changes in supraglacial drainage efficiency continuously throughout the melt season, although temporal and spatial skewness of Dd observations likely affects the application of this R‐Dd relationship on crevasse fields and snow/firn surfaces. Incorporating this information into a simple surface routing model finds that high runoff leads to earlier, larger diurnal peaks of runoff transport on the ice surface, owing to increased Dd. This effect progressively declines from low (∼1,100 m) to high (∼1,700 m) elevation, causing a roughly order‐of‐magnitude reduction in diurnal runoff variability at the highest elevations relative to standard climate model output. Combining intermittent satellite Dd mapping with climate model output thus promises to improve characterization of supraglacial drainage efficiency to the benefit of supraglacial meltwater routing and subglacial hydrology models.

Concurrent Changepoints in Greenland Ice Core δ18O Records and the North Atlantic Oscillation over the Past Millennium

Structural changes, or changepoints, coinciding in multiple ice core records over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) may reflect a widespread response of the GrIS to atmospheric forcing. Thus, to better understand how atmospheric circulation may regulate sudden changes in δ18O of Greenland precipitation, we seek synchronous changepoints occurring in ice core-derived δ18O time series across the GrIS and in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the past millennium. By utilizing a Bayesian changepoint detection method, four changepoint horizons were revealed: at the beginning of the 20th century, in the late-15th century, and around the turn of the 11th and 10th centuries. Although the changepoints in ice core δ18O records exhibited distinctive spatial arrangements in each horizon, all corresponded to changepoints in the NAO, indicative of a consistent atmospheric influence on GrIS surface changes over the past millennium.