Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies Research Articles

An interval-fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming model for planning carbon dioxide trading under uncertainty

In this study, an IFTSP (interval-fuzzy two-stage stochastic programming) method is developed for planning carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission trading under uncertainty. The developed IFTSP incorporates techniques of interval fuzzy linear programming and two-stage stochastic programming within a general optimization framework, which can effectively tackle uncertainties described in terms of probability density functions, fuzzy membership functions and discrete intervals. The IFTSP cannot only tackle uncertainties expressed as probabilistic distributions and discrete intervals, but also provide an effective linkage between the pre-regulated CO 2 mitigation policies and the associated economic implications. The developed model is applied to a case study of CO 2-emission trading planning of industry systems under uncertainty, where three trading schemes are considered based on different trading participants. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They are help for supporting: (a) formulation of desired GHG (greenhouse gas) mitigation policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints, (b) selection of the desired CO 2-emission trading pattern, and (c) in-depth analysis of tradeoffs among system benefit, satisfaction degree, and CO 2 mitigation under multiple uncertainties.

Modeling Uncertainty and the Economics of Climate Change: Recommendations for Robust Energy Policy

Economic analysis of climate change has become a fundamental instrument for the multidisciplinary research of this global environmental challenge and is increasingly used for informing the ongoing discussion between climate scientists and policy makers. Much progress has been achieved in climate change economics over the past decade, which has led to the refinement of “integrated assessment models” and the development of other approaches that permit analyses of the multiple dimensions of climate change, either individually or jointly. Of particular relevance in this context are cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. The formulation of climate policy is increasingly becoming reliant on the adequacy of economic analysis, yet many of its aspects are left poorly understood. Both the scientific and policy-making communities therefore agree that economic studies of climate change ought to be perfected. Among the subjects that deserve further in-depth investigation, the issue of uncertainty emerges as, perhaps, the most prominent. The outpouring of literature following the publication of the “Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change” has brought fundamentally new insights to the field of climate change research, in particular, with regards to the uncertainties by which climate change is intrinsically characterized [2]. Although a number of numerical economic analyses of climate change have employed techniques that in some form account for uncertainty, such as with Monte Carlo simulations or through stochastic differential equations [4], it has become clear that more advanced techniques are needed to more suitably design and evaluate greenhouse gas mitigation policies [3]. Scientists have recently extensively explored the model and parameter space of the economics of climate change, and especially the Stern Review has catalyzed a fundamental rethinking of the economic rationale for action on global warming [1]. While the conditions sufficient to provide a case for strong CO2 abatement activity can today be readily formulated, much more work is needed to create a satisfactory account of the relevant economics. In particular, it needs to be better understood how climate policy makers should handle the abundance of natural and social scientific uncertainties in the field of climate change. This special issue of Environmental Modeling and Assessment is meant to gather front-edge research and innovative analysis in the modeling of uncertainty related to the economics of climate change. The focus is notably on advancements in probabilistic integrated assessment modeling A. Haurie ORDECSYS, Geneva, Switzerland

지자체 온실가스 배출특성 분석연구-전라북도 14개 시·군 사례

For each local town (6 cities and 8 counties) affiliated with Jeonbuk provincial government, characteristics of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were analyzed and key emission areas were drawn to establish mitigation policies of the regional greenhouse gases. National Institute of Environmental Research (NIER) reported that the total greenhouse gas emission of Jeonbuk was 20.93 million <TEX>$tCO_2e$</TEX> in 2006. The inland area of 5 cities and 1 county (Jeonju, Gunsan, Iksan, Jungeup, Kimje, Wanju) covered 82% of total greenhouse gas emission in Jeonbuk, while the rest local towns of the province, mostly from mountainous areas were responsible for the rest of the total GHG emission. The cities and counties having relatively higher emission in Jeonbuk province were influenced dominantly by the emission from energy and waste sections. Also, agricultural section showed similar tendency except industrial cities such as Gunsan and Jeonju. In the internal portion of city and county, energy section showed the highest portion at the range of 72.1 (Sunchang)~97.0% (Jeonju) and agricultural section was at the range of 1.2% (Jeonju)~26.6 (Sunchang). When the portion of energy section was higher, the lower agricultural section. The emission index was applied to decide the key city and county and the potential city and county with two methodologies in this study. It was required that the key emission areas were drawn to establish regional greenhouse gases mitigation policies.

Supporting greenhouse gas mitigation in developing cities: a synthesis of financial instruments

One of the major concerns with the post-2012 global climate regime is to reach consensus on how to finance actions needed in fast-growing developing economies for significant greenhouses gases emissions mitigation. International financial and technology transfer are bound to bridge the gap under well-designed institutional framework to facilitate the transition to low(er) carbon development trajectories in developing countries. So far, cities, which contribute nearly 80% of global emissions, have not yet been recognised as a legitimate entity to implement different greenhouse gas mitigation policies and measures with relevant technical and financial abilities. Here we discuss the scope and scale of different climate-relevant financial mechanisms and describe their comparative advantages and weakness in financing climate resilient urban infrastructures (buildings and transport in particular). We show the limitations of current instruments available in scaling up necessary financial flows into developing cities to achieve the long term climate stabilisation targets. Lastly, the paper examines the feasibility of factoring the sector-wise and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMA) mechanisms into local authorities’ long-term mitigation strategy by raising necessary funds to facilitate shifting the business as usual trajectories in developing cities in the next decades.

Can biofuels be a solution to climate change? The implications of land use change-related emissions for policy

Biofuels have gained increasing attention as an alternative to fossil fuels for several reasons, one of which is their potential to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Recent studies have questioned the validity of claims about the potential of biofuels to reduce GHG emissions relative to the liquid fossil fuels they are replacing when emissions owing to direct (DLUC) and indirect land use changes (ILUC) that accompany biofuels are included in the life cycle GHG intensity of biofuels. Studies estimate that the GHG emissions released from ILUC could more than offset the direct GHG savings by producing biofuels and replacing liquid fossil fuels and create a 'carbon debt' with a long payback period. The estimates of this payback period, however, vary widely across biofuels from different feedstocks and even for a single biofuel across different modelling assumptions. In the case of corn ethanol, this payback period is found to range from 15 to 200 years. We discuss the challenges in estimating the ILUC effect of a biofuel and differences across biofuels, and its sensitivity to the assumptions and policy scenarios considered by different economic models. We also discuss the implications of ILUC for designing policies that promote biofuels and seek to reduce GHG emissions. In a first-best setting, a global carbon tax is needed to set both DLUC and ILUC emissions to their optimal levels. However, it is unclear whether unilateral GHG mitigation policies, even if they penalize the ILUC-related emissions, would increase social welfare and lead to optimal emission levels. In the absence of a global carbon tax, incentivizing sustainable land use practices through certification standards, government regulations and market-based pressures may be a viable option for reducing ILUC.

White Certificates and White Certificate Trading Schemes as greenhouse gas mitigation policy options for South Africa

AbstractEnergy efficiency activities driven by White Certificate Trading schemes (WCT) achieve the objective of conserving energy, and in most circumstances, also that of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The potential therefore exists that both objectives could be targeted by a single policy mechanism. Energy efficiency activities are important from a GHG mitigation perspective as they represent some of the least costly GHG mitigation activities available to economies. However, there are some significant differences between the use of a direct policy instrument to target GHG emissions mitigation, and the use of an indirect instrument such as WCT, whose direct policy objective is to achieve energy efficiency. Most importantly, WCT utilises intensity targets, whereas GHG mitigation is required by science to comprise absolute reductions. International experience does however suggest that white certificates can be fully fungible with a GHG mitigation policy instrument such as an emissions trading scheme, as long as double counting rules are firmly in place, and the design of the schemes are compatible.Given that 80 percent of the South African GHG emissions are energy related, with energy efficiency measures in industry, commerce and the residential sector representing the bulk of negative cost mitigation options available in the economy, energy efficiency has an important role to play in the country’s mitigation strategy.This paper presents results on research into WCT as a policy option for South Africa conducted in 2008 and presented at the Climate Change Summit 2009. It investigates in particular the Electricity Conservation Scheme (ECS) as an option for incorporating a WCT mechanism.There is limited experience and therefore analysis on WCS available to date, and even less on the potential interaction and linkages of WCS and emissions trading schemes. This paper therefore identifies significa

Aviation’s inclusion in international climate policy regimes: Implications for the Caribbean tourism industry

Nations with tourism dependant economies are becoming increasingly concerned about the inclusion of aviation in greenhouse gas mitigation policy for international bunker fuels and more recently adaptation policy proposals. The central concern is that such policies will increase the cost of traveling by air, therefore reducing visitor arrivals to long-haul, tourism-dependent destinations, often small island developing states. This study used a tourism arrivals model to examine the implications of currently proposed climate policies for the world’s most tourism dependant region – the Caribbean. Results indicate that under current proposals for both mitigation and adaptation focused climate policy, reductions in tourist arrivals from the major markets of Europe and North America would be negligible versus business as usual growth projections Only under the most stringent mitigation policy scenario. Which may portend a post-2020 policy regime, is a significant decrease in tourist arrivals predicted. Of the climate policies assessed, the adaptation policy had the potential to provide greater economic benefits to the Caribbean region.

Can Biofuels be a Solution to Climate Change? The Implications of Land Use Change Related Emissions for Policy

Biofuels have gained increasing attention as an alternative to fossil fuels for several reasons, one of which is their potential to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Recent studies have questioned the validity of claims about the potential for biofuels to reduce GHG emissions relative to the liquid fossil fuels they are replacing when emissions due to direct and indirect land use changes (ILUCs) that accompany biofuels are included in the life-cycle GHG intensity of biofuels. Studies estimate that the GHG emissions released from ILUC could more than offset the direct GHG savings by producing biofuels and replacing liquid fossil fuels and create a “carbon debt” with a long payback period. The estimates of this payback period, however, vary widely across biofuels from different feedstocks and even for a single biofuel across different modeling assumptions. In the case of corn ethanol, this payback period is found to range from 15 to 200 years. We discuss the challenges in estimating the ILUC effect of a biofuel and differences across biofuels, and its sensitivity to the assumptions and policy scenarios considered by different economic models. We also discuss the implications of ILUC for designing policies that promote biofuels and seek to reduce GHG emissions. In a first best setting, a global carbon tax is needed to set both direct and indirect land use change emissions to their optimal levels. However, it is unclear whether unilateral GHG mitigation policies, even if they penalize the ILUC related emissions, would increase social welfare and lead to optimal emission levels. In the absence of a global carbon tax, incentivizing sustainable land use practices through certification standards, government regulations and market-based pressures may be a viable option for reducing ILUC.

An interval fixed-mix stochastic programming method for greenhouse gas mitigation in energy systems under uncertainty

In this study, an interval fixed-mix stochastic programming (IFSP) model is developed for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction management under uncertainties. In the IFSP model, methods of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and fixed-mix stochastic programming (FSP) are introduced into an integer programming framework, such that the developed model can tackle uncertainties described in terms of interval values and probability distributions over a multi-stage context. Moreover, it can reflect dynamic decisions for facility-capacity expansion during the planning horizon. The developed model is applied to a case of planning GHG-emission mitigation, demonstrating that IFSP is applicable to reflecting complexities of multi-uncertainty, dynamic and interactive energy management systems, and capable of addressing the problem of GHG-emission reduction. A number of scenarios corresponding to different GHG-emission mitigation levels are examined; the results suggest that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can be used for generating plans for energy resource/electricity allocation and capacity expansion and help decision makers identify desired GHG mitigation policies under various economic costs and environmental requirements.

Soil organic matter dynamics: land use, management and global change

Soil organic matter (SOM) is one of the most complex components of terrestrial ecosystems and serves many vital functions in terms of regulating the flow and supply of nutrients to plants, regulating water flow and water retention in soils and determining the physical attributes of soils. Hence, the maintenance and management of SOM is vital for the sustainability of croplands, grasslands, forests and wetlands. More recently, increased attention has been focused on the role of soils in the global carbon cycle, where the world’s soils contain more than 1.5 trillion tonnes of carbon or roughly three times the carbon contained in all the world’s vegetation and twice the amount of carbon (as CO2) in the earth’s atmosphere. Hence, relatively small changes in the global storage of carbon in SOM can have large effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations—either positively or negatively. If soils are managed to increase their organic matter content (which also contributes to increased soil fertility), CO2 levels in the atmosphere can be reduced. Currently there is a growing interest in promoting soil carbon sequestration as a GHG mitigation option, particularly in many developing countries. Incorporating carbon sequestration objectives in sustainable land management projects (both via the growing voluntary GHG offset markets and evolving national and international GHG mitigation policies) opens the possibility to radically improve the prospects for improved livelihoods and more sustainable land use practices in developing countries. Research directed at improving our understanding of, and ability to accurately predict, changes in SOM, across the range of managed ecosystems—from croplands, grazing lands, forests and wetlands—is moving very rapidly. Increasingly the science community is being called upon to provide the information and tools needed to support policies directed towards sustainable land use and GHG mitigation, involving SOM. With the overall aim to present the state-of-the-art on SOM studies across the world and highlight future research directions, the International Symposium on Soil Organic Matter Dynamics: Land Use, Management and Global Change was held in Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA, on July 6–9, 2009 (http:// www.nrel.colostate.edu/som-home.html). At the symposium, SOM dynamics were discussed in the context Plant Soil (2011) 338:1–3 DOI 10.1007/s11104-010-0617-6

The Implications of Climate Change Mitigation Policy and Oil Price Volatility for Tourism Arrivals to the Caribbean

Globally, tourism is a non-negligible contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primarily through tourist transport, and in particular rapidly increasing air travel. A number of policy proposals to reduce GHG emissions from domestic and international aviation have been introduced between 2005 and 2009. Oil price volatility, especially since 2008, has forced airlines to make adjustments to flight schedules and even to add fuel surcharges to plane tickets. Tourism destinations dependent on long-haul air travel have expressed concern about the potential impact of change mitigation policies and high oil prices on tourist mobility and arrivals to their countries. A tourist arrivals model was constructed to examine whether aviation sector mitigation policy introduced in the major market regions of the European Union and North America, coupled with a return to recent oil price market volatility might adversely affect tourist arrivals to the Caribbean region. A sensitivity analysis that included 18 scenarios with different combinations of three GHG mitigation policy scenarios for aviation (represented by varied carbon prices), two oil price projections, and three price elasticity estimates, representing the range in the air travel economics literature, was conducted to examine the impact on air travel arrivals from eight outbound market nations to the Caribbean region. Results indicate that under proposed aviation sector mitigation policies and the range of oil price projections currently available, growth in visitor numbers through to 2020 would decrease only slightly (−1.3% to −4.3%) relative to a reference scenario based on recent growth trends. A detailed case study of Jamaica further revealed the different sensitivity of market segments (package vacations) to climate policy and oil price related increases in air travel costs and the economic implications of reduced growth in tourist arrivals. As the international policy framework for managing GHG emissions from bunker fuels (air and marine transport) solidifies, further research will be required to understand the implications for tourist mobility, tour operator routing and the longer-term risks to tourism development in the Caribbean.

The hedge value of international emissions trading under uncertainty

This paper estimates the value of international emissions trading, focusing on a here-to-fore neglected component; its value as a hedge against uncertainty. Much analysis has been done of the Kyoto Protocol and other potential international greenhouse gas mitigation policies comparing the costs of achieving emission targets with and without trading. These studies often show large cost reductions for all Parties under trading compared to a no trading case. We investigate the welfare gains of including emissions trading in the presence of uncertainty in economic growth rates, using both a partial equilibrium model based on marginal abatement cost curves and a computable general equilibrium model. We find that the hedge value of international trading is small relative to its value in reallocating emissions reductions when the burden sharing scheme does not resemble a least cost allocation. We also find that the effects of pre-existing tax distortions and terms of trade dominate the hedge value of trading. We conclude that the primary value of emissions trading in international agreements is as a burden sharing or wealth transfer mechanism and should be judged accordingly.

Issues in Designing U.S. Climate Change Policy

Over the coming decades, the cost of U.S. climate change policy likely will be comparable to the total cost of all existing environmental regulation—perhaps 1-2 percent of national income. In order to avoid higher costs, policy efforts should create incentives for firms and individuals to pursue the cheapest climate change mitigation options over time, among all sectors, across national borders, and in the face of significant uncertainty. Well-designed national greenhouse gas mitigation policies can serve as the foundation for global efforts and as an example for emerging and developing countries. We present six key policy design issues that will determine the costs, cost-effectiveness, and distributional impacts of domestic climate policy: program scope, cost containment, offsets, revenues and allowance allocation, competitiveness, and R&amp;D policy. We synthesize the literature on these design features, review the implications for the ongoing policy debate, and identify outstanding research questions that can inform policy development.

Greenhouse gas mitigation policies and the transportation sector: The role of feedback effects on policy effectiveness

The US transportation sector is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As such, policymakers and stakeholder groups have proposed a number of policy instruments aimed at reducing these emissions. In order to fully evaluate the effectiveness of these policies, policymakers must consider both the direct responses associated with policy actions, and the indirect responses that occur through complex relationships within socioeconomic systems. In cases where multiple policy instruments are employed, these indirect effects create policy interactions that are either complementary or competing; policymakers need to understand these interactions in order to leverage policy synergies and manage policy conflicts. Analysis of these indirect effects is particularly difficult in the transportation sector, where system boundaries are uncertain and feedback among systems components can be complicated. This paper begins to address this problem by applying systems dynamics tools (in particular causal loop diagrams) to help identify and understand the role of feedback effects on transportation-related GHG reduction policies. Policymakers can use this framework to qualitatively explore the impacts of various policy instruments, as well as identify important relationships that can be later included in quantitative modeling approaches.

Issues in Designing U.S. Climate Change Policy

Over the coming decades, the cost of U.S. climate change policy likely will be comparable to the total cost of all existing environmental regulation-perhaps 1-2 percent of national income. In order to avoid higher costs, policy efforts should create incentives for firms and individuals to pursue the cheapest climate change mitigation options over time, among all sectors, across national borders, and in the face of significant uncertainty. Well-designed national greenhouse gas mitigation policies can serve as the foundation for global efforts and as an example for emerging and developing countries. We present six key policy design issues that will determine the costs, cost-effectiveness, and distributional impacts of domestic climate policy: program scope, cost containment, offsets, revenues and allowance allocation, competitiveness, and R&D policy. We synthesize the literature on these design features, review the implications for the ongoing policy debate, and identify outstanding research questions that can inform policy development.

Marginal abatement costs of greenhouse gas emissions: A meta-analysis

In this paper, we carry out a meta-analysis of recent studies into the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation policies that aim at the long-term stabilisation of these gases in the atmosphere. We find the cost estimates of the studies to be sensitive to the stringency of the stabilisation target, the assumed emissions baseline, the way in which the time profile of emissions is determined in the model, the choice of control variable (CO 2 only versus multigas), the number of regions and energy sources in the model and, to a lesser degree, the scientific “forum” in which the study was developed. We find that marginal abatement costs of the stringent long-term targets that are currently considered by the European Commission are still very uncertain but might exceed the costs that have been suggested by recent policy assessments.

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

Climate Change and Health: Strengthening the Evidence Base for Policy

Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation

BackgroundGreenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies can provide ancillary benefits in terms of short-term improvements in air quality and associated health benefits. Several studies have analyzed the ancillary impacts of GHG policies for a variety of locations, pollutants, and policies. In this paper we review the existing evidence on ancillary health benefits relating to air pollution from various GHG strategies and provide a framework for such analysis.MethodsWe evaluate techniques used in different stages of such research for estimation of: (1) changes in air pollutant concentrations; (2) avoided adverse health endpoints; and (3) economic valuation of health consequences. The limitations and merits of various methods are examined. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for ancillary benefits analysis and related research gaps in the relevant disciplines.ResultsWe found that to date most assessments have focused their analysis more heavily on one aspect of the framework (e.g., economic analysis). While a wide range of methods was applied to various policies and regions, results from multiple studies provide strong evidence that the short-term public health and economic benefits of ancillary benefits related to GHG mitigation strategies are substantial. Further, results of these analyses are likely to be underestimates because there are a number of important unquantified health and economic endpoints.ConclusionRemaining challenges include integrating the understanding of the relative toxicity of particulate matter by components or sources, developing better estimates of public health and environmental impacts on selected sub-populations, and devising new methods for evaluating heretofore unquantified and non-monetized benefits.

GHG Mitigation Policies and Land Use Interactions

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are widely acknowledged to be responsible for much of the global warming in the past century. Since the burning of fossil-based fuels is an important source of GHGs, the policies on GHG mitigation encourage the replacement of fossil-based energy with biomass energy. This policy would lead to a large-scale conversion of land to production of crops for biomass energy. The impacts of GHG mitigation policies were analyzed for five types of agricultural land—cropland, managed forestry, pasture, unmanaged forestry, and unmanaged grassland—in terms of their carbon storage capacities and the effects of conversion of the land to use for biomass fuel cropland. The research indicates that biomass energy production would lead to a reduction of the biological carbon-storage capacities of these land types. Although there would still be a net benefit in reducing atmospheric GHG emissions, such benefits would be partly counteracted by the land-use conversion. Thus, this paper provides an example of the need for further study to discern all the implications of proposed GHG mitigation policies and technologies and the degrees to which they are likely to enhance our future.

Strategic Environmental Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in the Canadian Agricultural Sector

This article presents a methodological framework for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) application. The overall objective is to demonstrate SEA as a systematic and structured policy, plan, and program (PPP) decision support tool. In order to accomplish this objective, a stakeholder-based SEA application to greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy options in Canadian agriculture is presented. Using a mail-out impact assessment exercise, agricultural producers and nonproducers from across the Canadian prairie region were asked to evaluate five competing GHG mitigation options against 13 valued environmental components (VECs). Data were analyzed using multi-criteria and exploratory analytical techniques. The results suggest considerable variation in perceived impacts and GHG mitigation policy preferences, suggesting that a blanket policy approach to GHG mitigation will create gainers and losers based on soil type and associate cropping and on-farm management practices. It is possible to identify a series of regional greenhouse gas mitigation programs that are robust, socially meaningful, and operationally relevant to both agricultural producers and policy decision makers. The assessment demonstrates the ability of SEA to address, in an operational sense, environmental problems that are characterized by conflicting interests and competing objectives and alternatives. A structured and systematic SEA methodology provides the necessary decision support framework for the consideration of impacts, and allows for PPPs to be assessed based on a much broader set of properties, objectives, criteria, and constraints whereas maintaining rigor and accountability in the assessment process.