Greek Referendum Research Articles

Sovereign debt crises, referendums and the changing face of colonial power

While it is poorly performing economies like Greece that have become synonymous with sovereign debt crises in recent times, other more deeply indebted economies remain exempt from such representations. This paper builds on an argument made elsewhere that sovereign debt crises are implicated in the expansion of colonial power through austerity, in both their overt and covert manifestations. While the 2015 Greek referendum in a climate of austerity attempted to cover over the imperializing will of the European Union through the referendum device, in Australia the referendum campaign seeking ‘recognition’ of Aboriginal people in the Constitution effaces the foundational debts of dispossession that structure both economy and sovereignty. While the referendums in both crises are invoked to resolve different legal, economic and cultural issues, they are indissociably connected in that they operate to legitimize the expansion of global colonial power. Referendums more generally are becoming increasingly visible as governance devices and yet their cultural-legal and racial meanings are yet to be tracked. I begin this task by bringing together a range of heterogeneous texts and literatures. By analysing and interconnecting these seemingly disparate texts, I argue that the Greek and Australian referendums are both techniques of colonial power.

YES or NO: Predicting the 2015 GReferendum results using Google Trends

We examine the possibility of predicting the 2015 Greek Referendum results by analyzing data from Google Trends on the ‘YES’ and ‘NO’ search terms. Our analysis shows that, despite the voting intention polls of the YES and NO votes being marginally one above the other throughout the prevoting period, the NO hits are clearly and every day above the YES ones, with statistically significant evidence. By analyzing data from Google Trends, we calculate a valid approximation of the final result, thus contributing to the discussion of using Google Trends as an elections' results prediction tool in the future.

ЭЛЕКТОРАЛЬНОЕ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ В США: ИГРОКИ РЫНКА И ПОНИМАНИЕ ПРОГНОЗОВ

The electoral studies of the recent years reveal discrepancies between the results of the opinion polls and the election results. The mismatch in forecasting the results of regional and municipal level elections is tremendous. Poor quality of the electoral forecasting is not only the Russian problem. Foreign sociologists who failed to give accurate forecasts also happen to be in the spotlight. Some of the recent examples are results of the Polish presidential elections, the Greek referendum, and the British parliamentary elections. In all these cases the faults of sociologists drew wide public discussion for a reason: poor quality election forecasting undermines public trust in surveys. The public do not perceive sociology as a reliable source of information about the public itself. The article presents the results of the project aimed at studying the American approaches towards electoral forecasting and includes a series of interviews with the largest American pollsters. The paper considers such questions as who forecasts the American elections and how the role of electoral forecasting is perceived in the research environment.

Calling the Greek Referendum on the Nose with Google Trends

In a bold and risky political move the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum on June 27 2015 quitting ongoing negotiations with Greece's creditors in Brussels. The referendum framed as a yes or no question asked the Greek voters to decide whether or not they approve or reject the latest take-it-or-leave-it proposal for program continuation by Greece's creditors. What followed was a chaotic week leading to the referendum with intense campaigning by the two camps. Due to tense debates and increasing polarisation it became increasingly impossible to rely on traditional polling. Even the first exit polls (performed by phone on Sunday evening) could only see a marginal lead for one or the other vote at different times. Quite possibly people were jumping party lines and were unwilling to reveal their preferences. Using Google Trends I could tap into voters' true and unbiased revealed preferences and nowcast hourly what the ratio of the No vote to the Yes vote is and called an over 60% No vote well ahead of the closing of the voting urns. In this paper I document this nowcasting exercise.

Calling the Greek Referendum on the Nose with Google Trends

In a bold and risky political move the Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras called for a referendum on June 27 2015 quitting ongoing negotiations with Greece's creditors in Brussels. The referendum framed as a yes or no question asked the Greek voters to decide whether or not they approve or reject the latest take-it-or-leave-it proposal for program continuation by Greece's creditors. What followed was a chaotic week leading to the referendum with intense campaigning by the two camps. Due to tense debates and increasing polarisation it became increasingly impossible to rely on traditional polling. Even the first exit polls (performed by phone on Sunday evening) could only see a marginal lead for one or the other vote at different times. Quite possibly people were jumping party lines and were unwilling to reveal their preferences. Using Google Trends I could tap into voters' true and unbiased revealed preferences and nowcast hourly what the ratio of the No vote to the Yes vote is and called an over 60% No vote well ahead of the closing of the voting urns. In this paper I document this nowcasting exercise.