ABSTRACT The US inland waterways are critical to the domestic economy but prone to disruptions from extreme weather events, notably floods, which have cascading impacts on supply chains. Although floods are expected to increase in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change, no research has been done to analyse economic impacts of disruptions from floods along inland waterways under future climate scenarios or to analyse how flood-resilient port infrastructure can help mitigate losses. This study combines climate, agent-based, and economic input-output modelling to estimate impacts of future flood disruptions along the Upper Mississippi River and to evaluate a case study where the development of a climate-resilient port can help mitigate economic impacts of such events. Results show that disruptions tend to become more severe with higher degrees of warming. Additionally, Illinois and Louisiana are the states in the region expected to suffer the greatest production losses, and agriculture and chemical manufacturing are the most adversely impacted industries. The study finds that the development of a flood-resilient port near the mouth of Upper Mississippi River can help cost-effectively reroute shipments and mitigate losses during many future disruption scenarios.
Read full abstract