Greater Competition Research Articles

Whose victory? A perspective on shifts in US-China cross-border data flow rules in the AI era

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming cross-border data governance, a globally significant issue. This study examines the regulatory shifts in cross-border data flows between two superpowers—China and the US—in the AI era. It highlights how the strategic value of data flows has introduced a new dimension of great power competition in technology, supplementing pre-existing concerns such as digital trade, national security, and data privacy protection, while intensifying associated security risks. The US is transitioning from liberal to restrictive regulation, whereas China is gradually shifting from restrictive regulation toward greater openness. These changes reflect both nations’ recalibrations based on their respective national interests, emphasizing divergent priorities in technological power contests, evolving trade strategies, and policy objectives amidst a new wave of technological transformation. This article provides a forward-looking analysis of next-generation cross-border data flow regulations in the AI era, addressing gaps in existing research focused on traditional data flow governance. It also offers strategic insights into the regulatory transformations in China and the US, with implications for global data governance.

China’s test of the nuclear revolution: Technology, great power competition and the nuclear balance

ABSTRACT U.S.-China competition provides an opportunity to test the claims of proponents and challengers of the theory of the nuclear revolution (TNR). Drawing on original Chinese-language sources and secondary analysis, this article examines the views of China’s experts and its behavior in modernizing its nuclear posture to determine whether they accord with TNR or its challengers. It finds that there is little evidence to suggest that China is pursuing a competitive nuclear posture akin to that of the superpowers during the Cold War, although a gap has appeared between the views of China’s nuclear experts and the capabilities it is building.

Reshape Iron Nanoparticles Using a Zinc Oxide Nanowire Array for High Efficiency and Stable Electrocatalytic Nitrogen Fixation.

As a type of century-old catalyst, the use of iron-based materials runs through the Haber-Bosch process and electrochemical synthesis of ammonia because of its excellent capability, low cost, and abundant reserves. How to continuously improve its catalytic activity and stability for electrochemical nitrogen fixation has always been a goal pursued by scientific researchers. Herein, we develop a free-standing iron-based catalyst, i.e., the iron nanoparticles with zinc oxide nanowire array support (Fe/ZnO NA), which exhibits a high ammonia yield of ∼54.81 μg h-1 mgcat.-1 and a Faradaic efficiency (FE) of ∼9.56% in a 0.5 M potassium hydroxide solution, along with good reusability and durability. Its electrocatalytic ability is superior to that of commercial Fe materials and most reported Fe-based catalysts, thus showing great competitiveness. This is because the ZnO NA not only supplies stable support for the homogeneous dispersion of Fe nanoparticles but also provides a very beneficial synergy to their catalytic activity. The work renews traditional iron-based catalysts and is thus of great significance for promoting the industrialization of electrochemical ammonia synthesis.

Promoting Professionalism, Provoking Precarity: Security Assistance and the Risk of Military Coups

Abstract When does foreign military assistance actually protect recipient governments, and when does it catalyze coups against them? In Adam Casey's Up in Arms: How Military Aid Stabilizes—and Destabilizes—Foreign Autocrats, great powers come preloaded with military models from their own history. These have different political risk profiles when exported, and the U.S. template of apolitical professionalism is particularly dangerous. This article reviews Up in Arms’ arguments about the sources and consequences of civil-military relationships, comparative Cold War case studies on the track record of security assistance and political regime durability, and contemporary policy lessons for military aid and alliances in an era of great power competition. It contextualizes these findings with the broader security assistance literature's mixed empirical results regarding democracy, human rights, and defense capability in recipient countries, and with scholars’ increasing emphasis, across research methods, on military training and education. In critiquing scope and methods both for the book and the field, the article calls for more case study work on democratic and counterinsurgent successes; closer analysis of military documents; and more systematic institutional disaggregation and ideational process tracing to assess the channels and conditions for effective security assistance.

Multipolarity symposium: introduction

This paper introduces the three articles that were a part of Security in Context and Review of Social Economy joint symposium that took place at the University of Oklahoma. The three papers include “Multipolarity and the New South-South Relations: Myth vs. Reality” by Omar Dahi and Firat Demir, “Security in Context (SiC): A Novel Theoretical and Empirical Approach to the US-China Rivalry” by Min Ye, and “A Political Economy Analysis of Changes and Continuities in Iran-Africa Trade Relations: A Case of South-South Dependency?” by Eric Lob and Hakan Yilmazkuday. These papers offer a compelling and critical lens of multipolarity, great power competition and the New South-South relations.

WMD Proliferation Concerns in the Era of Great Power Competition: An Indian Perspective

WMD Proliferation Concerns in the Era of Great Power Competition: An Indian Perspective

Adaptation and transition: the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Cypriot-Russian relations

ABSTRACT The impact of the Ukraine war on EU member states’ foreign policy and civil society, given the Union’s severe measures against Russia, requires rigorous academic attention. Cyprus is a special case because of its multifaceted ties with Russia, which have been mainly developed upon three pillars: economic, diplomatic, and cultural/religious. Since 2018, systemic developments stemming from Western reaction to the annexation of Crimea have undermined Cypriot-Russian economic relations, but diplomatic and cultural ties remained strong. However, the 2022 invasion seems to have affected even the most solid pillars of Cypriot-Russian friendship. To test this hypothesis, this article examines the consequences of the war at three levels: systemic effects that relate to geopolitical developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the renewed great power competition; Cyprus’ policy in the Council of the EU; and internal balances in the Greek Orthodox Church of Cyprus.

Great Power Competition in Central Asia: Current challenges and Future Scenarios

Great Power Competition in Central Asia: Current challenges and Future Scenarios

Assessing the Impact of the Great Power Competition on Space Commerce

Assessing the Impact of the Great Power Competition on Space Commerce

A Frozen Geopolitical Concern: Arctic Ocean and the Emerging Great Power Competition

The Arctic is on the cusp of a major shift. Defrosting of permafrost, thawing of ice sheet, and degradation of thick sea ice are the results of devastating climate change implications on the region. Arctic ice is melting faster than ever before and therefore, states are rushing to make claims and assert their influence in this region of geo-strategic significance. Climate change has made the Arctic a new geopolitical battlefield. Therefore, the paper poses three major questions: first, what is the strategic significance of the Arctic in contemporary times? Second, what are the domestic and international interests of the US, Russia, and China that are likely to compete in the Arctic? Third, how is the involvement of China- a non-Arctic state- impacting the strategic calculus of the Arctic? The paper argues climate-induced melting of ice caps in the Arctic have encouraged the great powers- US, Russia, and China to view for influence. This influence is derived from the region’s untapped resources and its significance for the maritime trade routes. The paper concludes that even though the Arctic competition can have serious implications on the ongoing great power rivalry, the changing dynamics will also unravel opportunities with regards to maritime trade.

Soft Power and Great Power Competition Shifting Sands in the Balance of Power between the United States and China

Soft Power and Great Power Competition Shifting Sands in the Balance of Power between the United States and China

Great Powers Competition in the Indian Ocean and Implications for Pakistan

Due to its crucial geopolitical importance, the Indian Ocean has long been a site of strategic rivalry between powerful nations. This article traces the development of power dynamics from the period of British colonial control to the Cold War rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union, examining the historical background of the Great Power conflict in the Indian Ocean. The British soldiers' retreat "East of Suez" in the late 1960s was a watershed moment that resulted in a rise in US and Soviet naval operations in the area. By the late 1980s, Soviet influence was starting to fade, while the US Navy (USN) increased its presence, especially in reaction to the Iranian Revolution of 1979. The changing geopolitical environment of the Indian Ocean region results from the emergence of new actors. With an emphasis on Pakistan, this article critically examines the Indian Ocean's present and possible future players. With its key location and engagement in initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan would likely be affected significantly. The analysis results highlight how crucial historical awareness is to comprehending Pakistan's current obstacles and potential as it navigates this intricate and dynamic geopolitical landscape.

Great power competition, offensive realism, and the new debates on US grand strategy

After three decades of relative great power peace in the post-Cold War era, the world entered a dangerous new era of “great power competition” (GPC). According to many scholars, we are now in an age of multipolarity or bipolarity, and therefore America’s grand strategy that emerged during the unipolar era is in dire need of adaptation and change. Indeed, both the Washington policy debate and also the academic scholarly arguments about US grand strategy entered a new phase over the last few years, with new coalitions forming up and four schools of thought emerging as distinctive contenders grounded in separate international relations theories about great power politics: liberal internationalism, conservative internationalism, defensive realism, and offensive realism. In this article, I sketch the outlines of each of the four approaches, before making a case that offensive realism serves as the best guideline for US grand strategy.

Evolution of China's Role in the Asia-Pacific Region

In the 30 years since China joined APEC, China has actively participated in various forms of economic cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region, and has been a firm and active supporter of Asia-Pacific economic cooperation. China has closely integrated Asia-Pacific economic cooperation and its own development. China has become the second largest economy in the world, and its role is also changing significantly. By promoting China's economic development - it has promoted economic development and social progress, improved people's living standards and made great contributions to development in the Asia-Pacific region. China is playing an increasingly important role in the world. It has played an active role in building an open world economy, supporting the multilateral trading system and guiding the development of economic globalization. China's rapid consolidation of its comprehensive state power has shattered the original power structure in the Asia-Pacific region and changed the original territorial pattern. Against this background, key economies in the region, such as the US, Japan and ASEAN, are also making strategic adjustments that have a significant impact on the order in the Asia-Pacific region. In recent years, the US has been trying to create a group political environment in the Asia-Pacific region in order to suppress and isolate China. The final shape of the changing order in the Asia-Pacific depends on the great power competition and the degree of China's development. Ultimately, the role China hopes to play may also be achieved.

Great Power Competition in Africa: Current challenges and Future Scenarios

Great Power Competition in Africa: Current challenges and Future Scenarios

The global security initiative and China–Thailand non-traditional security cooperation

The Global Security Initiative (GSI) has provided significant thought inspiration and guidance for both traditional and non-traditional security governance in today’s world, and China–Thailand non-traditional security cooperation has provided a representative example of how the GSI can be practiced and implemented. China and Thailand have friendly relations, share similar security cooperation concepts, and have many common interests in terms of non-traditional security challenges. Subsequently, the two countries have carried out extensive bilateral and multilateral cooperation in areas such as maintaining financial security, combating transnational crime, resolving public health problems, and responding to climate change and natural disasters. The China–Thailand non-traditional security cooperation has yielded fruitful results. In addition to these dynamics, bilateral non-traditional security cooperation also has shortcomings and challenges, including irregular cycles in some areas of collaboration, a low degree of mechanization in certain collaboration, inadequate intellectual support, and the complexity of great power competition which causes some impact for China–Thailand non-traditional security cooperation. China–Thailand non-traditional security cooperation has enhanced the security and mutual trust between the countries, boosted bilateral cooperation and development, provided an example for non-traditional security cooperation between China and other countries, and promoted regional and global security and development.

Nepal’s Geopolitical Sensitivity on Great Power Rivalry: Analysing through the Lens of Schizoanalysis

Nepal, positioned strategically between China and India, faces unique security and foreign policy challenges as a buffer state amidst great power rivalries. This article employs Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari's schizoanalysis framework to analyze Nepal’s security dynamics and foreign policy evolution. Concepts such as deterritorialization, reterritorialization, molecular and molar lines, and machines of desire are applied to explore the interplay of domestic and international factors influencing Nepal’s geopolitical strategy. The study highlights Nepal’s historical balancing act between India and China, the impact of political transformations since 1990, and the growing influence of global powers like the US and EU. It also addresses the structural vulnerabilities and opportunities posed by these dynamics, focusing on Nepal’s aspirations for sovereignty, economic development, and geopolitical stability. By integrating schizoanalysis into the study of international relations, the article provides a novel perspective on how smaller states navigate great power competition, emphasizing Nepal’s nuanced approach to diplomacy and security.

Political Spaces Beyond the Nation State: The Global Commons in International Security Studies

Abstract The global commons have come to play an increasingly prominent role in the field of international security as scholars seek to better understand the causes and consequences of interstate cooperation, competition, and conflict in political spaces that lie beyond sovereign jurisdiction. In this piece, we make the case that by grouping all extraterritorial spaces into a single, not further differentiated conceptual category, the notion of the “global commons” as it is presently employed obscures important variation in the way these spaces are governed. Specifically, we argue that there exist two distinct types of spaces that legally do not belong to any one state: those that all states are effectively able to freely use for their own strategic purposes; and those that are de facto dominated and thus defy the ideal of universal accessibility their status as a global common supposedly entails. The updated conceptual framework we develop in response—which explicitly distinguishes between two distinct types of extraterritorial spaces—promises to advance security studies research on the global commons in several ways: it helps scholars avoid the issue of causal heterogeneity which current conceptual foundations introduce into causal analysis; it facilitates normative discussions about the global commons and their political future; and it produces novel insights into the governance problems policymakers will confront when seeking to maintain states’ access to extraterritorial spaces in the new age of great power competition.

Secret Innovation

Abstract Conventional wisdom holds that open, collaborative, and transparent organizations are innovative. But some of the most radical innovations—satellites, lithium-iodine batteries, the internet—were conceived by small, secretive teams in national security agencies. Are these organizations more innovative because of their secrecy, or in spite of it? We study a principal–agent model of public-sector innovation. We give research teams a secret option and a public option during the initial testing and prototyping phase. Secrecy helps advance high-risk, high-reward projects through the early phase via a cost-passing mechanism. In open institutions, managers will not approve pilot research into high-risk, high-reward ideas for fear of political costs. Researchers exploit secrecy to conduct pilot research at a higher personal cost to generate evidence that their project is viable and win their manager's approval. Contrary to standard principal–agent findings, we show that researchers may exploit secrecy even if their preferences are perfectly aligned with their manager's, and that managers do not monitor researchers even if monitoring is costless and perfect. We illustrate our theory with two cases from the early Cold War: the CIA's attempt to master mind control (MKULTRA) and the origins of the reconnaissance satellite (CORONA). We contribute to the political application of principal–agent theory and studies of national security innovation, emerging technologies, democratic oversight, the Sino–American technology debate, and great power competition.

How to Understand Climate Change as a Threat Multiplier in the Arctic

The aim of this paper is to analyse climate change as a threat multiplier to security dilemmas in the Arctic. Security dilemmas occur when one state’s efforts to enhance its security provokes reactions from other states, potentially leading to less security for all states involved. In an era of growing great power competition and confrontation, climate change might be a threat multiplier. This article contributes to our understanding of Arctic security dynamics by conducting a set of semi-structured interviews with mainly Norwegian civilian and military personnel on possible security dilemmas because of climate change. By applying Robert Jervis’ approach to security dilemmas, we ask how climate change affects how NATO and Russia interact in this area and how climate change might cause actors to pursue more offensive strategies in the north at the expense of defensive ones. By analysing state actors, day-to-day operations, and exercises, we conclude that climate change is poised to tilt the offence-defence balance not in favour of offensive strategies, but rather towards an offence-defence balance. We therefore conclude that there is no traditional security dilemma that may be exacerbated by climate change. Instead of exacerbating a security dilemma, climate change may precipitate one.