Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area Research Articles

A longitudinal analysis of travel demand and its determinants in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area

This study provides a unique long-term investigation of regional travel demand that addresses several gaps in the existing longitudinal literature. Firstly, it investigates the development of travel demand in terms of both vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) and passenger kilometres travelled (PKT), based on actual demand, congestion and equilibrium distances, using road and multi-modal transit networks in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA). Secondly, it identifies influential travel demand determinants after testing an extensive set of variables including longitudinal gravity-based transport accessibility measures. Thirdly, it investigates to what extent the determinants’ influence changes over time and various locations within the study area, providing new insights into the temporal and intra-regional variations of travel demand and its determinants. The findings show that VKT and PKT have grown in absolute and per trip terms, mainly due to substantial population growth, especially in the suburban areas. Whilst average potential travel times by transit have decreased, they are substantially longer than auto travel times. Furthermore, travel demand determinants vary significantly across space by degrees of urbanity, especially for VKT. The findings call for area- and population segment-specific land use and transportation policies across the GTHA.

Older Syrian Refugees’ Experiences of Language Barriers in Postmigration and (re)settlement Context in Canada.

This research explores older Syrian experiences of language barriers in Canada's post-migration and resettlement context. Guided by the ecosystemic model, the qualitative descriptive method was used to describe the experiences of six older adults (three women and three men, 55-year-old and over) living in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area. Results suggest the lack of English proficiency affects refugees' resettlement and, in particular, older adults at risk of abuse. Language barriers influence older adult refugees because it limits their ability to navigate the Canadian systems, exacerbate their dependency on adult children, increase social isolation, and decrease employment and income opportunities. Participants' commitment to learning English comes from their conviction that fluency has an essential role in shaping their experiences in Canada. Conclusions can help policymakers identify specific interventions to address language barriers among older adult Refugees.

Biological requirements or social expectations? Entanglements of sex and gender in nutrition policies in Ontario secondary schools

Objectives: An increasing number of nutrition policies have been implemented in Ontario schools as part of a concerted effort to address students’ well-being. This article explores understandings of biological differences in nutrition requirements between young men and women and the extent to which these differences are (re)produced in social eating behaviours and food pedagogies. Setting: A suburban school (grades 9–12) located in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area in Ontario, Canada. Method: Critical policy analysis combined with 13 focus groups of students (13–18 years old) in one Ontario school. A biopedagogical lens was used to analyse how young people develop and deploy their own reasoning and question the messages they receive about expected behaviour. Results: Focus group discussions suggest that dominant discourses and constructions about sex/gender are reproduced within the school environment, which has implications for the effectiveness of nutrition policies in schools. Furthermore, differences between young men and women’s eating behaviours were found to be contradictory to biopedagogical instructions from educational institutions and governmental agencies. For some young people, the pedagogical messages received are limited in their effectiveness because young people have not been convinced that it is worth risking their social status or because their content is contrary to messages received from media or their peers. Conclusion: Incorporating student voice in the creation of educational policy will assist health educators and school officials to understand sex/gender influences on the behaviour of students in terms of financial considerations, peer influence and social image. Optimising student voice to understand how they themselves may contribute to the implementation of policies will in turn increase the policies’ effectiveness.

Chemical Analysis of Surface-Level Ozone Exceedances during the 2015 Pan American Games

Surface-level ozone (O3) continues to be a significant health risk in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) of Canada even though precursor emissions in the area have decreased significantly over the past two decades. In July 2015, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) led an intensive field study coincident with Toronto hosting the 2015 Pan American Games. During the field study, the daily 1-h maximum O3 standard (80 ppbv) was exceeded twice at a measurement site in North Toronto, once on July 12 and again on July 28. In this study, ECCC’s 2.5-km configuration of the Global Environmental Multi-scale (GEM) meteorological model was combined with the Modelling Air-quality and CHemistry (MACH) on-line atmospheric chemistry model and the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban surface parameterization to create a new urban air quality modelling system. In general, the model results showed that the nested 2.5-km grid-spaced urban air quality model performed better in statistical scores compared to the piloting 10-km grid-spaced GEM-MACH model without TEB. Model analyses were performed with GEM-MACH-TEB for the two exceedance periods. The local meteorology for both cases consisted of light winds with the highest O3 predictions situated along lake-breeze fronts. For the July 28 case, O3 production sensitivity analysis along the trajectory of the lake-breeze circulation showed that the region of most efficient O3 production occurred in the updraft region of the lake-breeze front, as the precursors to O3 formation underwent vertical mixing. In this updraft region, the ozone production switches from volatile organic compound (VOC)-sensitive to NOx-sensitive, and the local net O3 production rate reaches a maximum. This transition in the chemical regime is a previously unidentified factor for why O3 surface-level mixing ratios maximize along the lake-breeze front. For the July 12 case, differences between the model and observed Lake Ontario water temperature and the strength of lake-breeze opposing wind flow play a role in differences in the timing of the lake-breeze, which impacts the predicted location of the O3 maximum north of Toronto.

A multi-decade longitudinal analysis of transportation and land use co-evolution in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area

Transportation infrastructure networks (TINs), and the accessibility that they provide, are argued to be major determinants of land-use change. However, the spatio-temporal extent of their impact on urbanization is unclear and calls for further investigation. This paper empirically investigates the impact of both road and transit networks on urbanization in the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA) from 1971 to 2016, using a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level panel database of 17,160 observations. It first documents and measures the magnitude, location and rate of urbanization and TINs' development in the region and in relation to each other using descriptive and buffer analyses. It then estimates the share of transport accessibility in urbanization over time and space using fixed effects panel regression models. Our findings demonstrate the significant extent of the ongoing sprawl, the substantial historical and current difference between the potential transit and car travel times, and the stability of the potential car travel times despite improvements to the road network. They also highlight the importance of urban proximity in prompting urbanization and the decreasing impact of transit improvement on urban development in urban areas and over time. A policy implication is that to encourage transit-oriented development, it is more effective to introduce or reinforce connections to activity centers rather than invest in reducing travel times to reach them.

Carer-employees’ travel behaviour: Assisted-transport in time and space

Assisted-transport demand is a daily caregiving task that affects carer-employee’s activity-travel behaviour; however, little is known about such behaviour and the types of constraints that impact carer-employee health. Combining the principles of Hägerstrand’s time geography and Mckie et al.’s caringscape terrain, this research develops a mixed-methods framework to classify the travel behaviour of carer-employees based on their travel experience and the space-time fixity of their weekly schedules. The mixed-methods framework consists of sentiment analysis and k-means clustering, both which are used to analyze 25 randomly selected participants within the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTAH). Participants were asked to reflect on their recorded one-week trips in a trip summary questionnaire. Sentiment analysis was used to thematically describe carer-employees’ travel behavior, whereas, k-means clustering generated travel behaviour profiles. “Time”, “pressure”, “parents”, “run”, and “long” were several thematic keywords describing the carer-employees’ travel behaviour. K-means clustering identified three relative types of carer-employees’ travel behaviours: 1) flexible, 2) between flexible and fixed, and; 3) fixed. These results provide critical information for the establishment of custom transport programs, such as maximum monthly telecommuting allotment; such programs are useful for employers to use in order to alleviate assisted-transport demand on their employees.

2261 - Estimating the Health Benefits of a Proposed Regional Transportation Plan

The population of the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA) is projected to grow from 6.2 million people in 2001 to 9.6 million in 2031. Existing commute times are the country's highest with annual costs of congestion to reach $15 billion. A proposed 25-year, $50 billion Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) would build a regional rapid transit network, expand active transportation (AT), and build communities that are AT- and transit-supportive. Medical Officers of Health of GTHA communities issued a call to action for government investment based on the estimated health-related benefits of implementing the RTP. To calculate increases in transport physical activity, the RTP's projected increase in public transit use was combined with conservative estimates of increases in AT to work and school by adults (5%), as well as a substitution of 5% of local vehicle trips ≤7 km with AT. The associated number of prevented deaths and incident cases of diabetes were calculated using the Health Economic Assessment Tool and the Diabetes Population Risk Tool, respectively. Data inputs included regional travel data from transportation and census surveys, crude mortality rates, and literature-based walking estimates with transit use. Adjustments were included for the duration of the academic year and seasons. A value of a statistical life (VSL) was $6.5 million and the lifetime excess medical costs of a diabetes case of $24,500. Previous Toronto-based estimates for annual premature deaths and hospitalizations attributed to traffic-related emissions were extrapolated to the GTHA based on population. Full implementation of the RTP would prevent 338 deaths per year in the current population with a VSL-based cost of $2.2 billion. The number of projected prevented deaths due to increased physical activity (184) and reduced vehicle emissions (154) were similar. The annual number of prevented cases of diabetes due to an increase in physical activity was 1,061 with a projected lifetime excess healthcare costs of almost $26 million. The projected health impacts of the RTP are substantial, yet conservative since they consider only mortality and diabetes incidence. The results provided an additional health-based argument for government investment, as well as signaled public health's interest in building healthier communities. In addition to initial media coverage, the report has been repeatedly cited at local, provincial and national levels. While impossible to directly attribute causality, subsequent government policies have included strengthening the accountability for integrated land use and transportation planning, as well as substantial investment in the RTP.

2261 - Estimating the Health Benefits of a Proposed Regional Transportation Plan

Highest Scoring Abstract: Practitioner Background The population of the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA) is projected to grow from 6.2 million people in 2001 to 9.6 million in 2031. Existing commute times are the country's highest with annual costs of congestion to reach $15 billion. A proposed 25-year, $50 billion Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) would build a regional rapid transit network, expand active transportation (AT), and build communities that are AT- and transit-supportive. Medical Officers of Health of GTHA communities issued a call to action for government investment based on the estimated health-related benefits of implementing the RTP. Methods To calculate increases in transport physical activity, the RTP's projected increase in public transit use was combined with conservative estimates of increases in AT to work and school by adults (5%), as well as a substitution of 5% of local vehicle trips ≤7 km with AT. The associated number of prevented deaths and incident cases of diabetes were calculated using the Health Economic Assessment Tool and the Diabetes Population Risk Tool, respectively. Data inputs included regional travel data from transportation and census surveys, crude mortality rates, and literature-based walking estimates with transit use. Adjustments were included for the duration of the academic year and seasons. A value of a statistical life (VSL) was $6.5 million and the lifetime excess medical costs of a diabetes case of $24,500. Previous Toronto-based estimates for annual premature deaths and hospitalizations attributed to traffic-related emissions were extrapolated to the GTHA based on population. Results Full implementation of the RTP would prevent 338 deaths per year in the current population with a VSL-based cost of $2.2 billion. The number of projected prevented deaths due to increased physical activity (184) and reduced vehicle emissions (154) were similar. The annual number of prevented cases of diabetes due to an increase in physical activity was 1,061 with a projected lifetime excess healthcare costs of almost $26 million. Conclusions The projected health impacts of the RTP are substantial, yet conservative since they consider only mortality and diabetes incidence. The results provided an additional health-based argument for government investment, as well as signalled public health's interest in building healthier communities. In addition to initial media coverage, the report has been repeatedly cited at local, provincial and national levels. While impossible to directly attribute causality, subsequent government policies have included strengthening the accountability for integrated land use and transportation planning, as well as substantial investment in the RTP.

The Velocity of Density: Can We Build More Sustainable Cities Fast Enough?

Urban planners now commonly advocate for increases in density of the built environment to reduce car dependence and enhance the sustainability of cities. The analysis in this paper asks about the speed at which density as a sustainability policy can be implemented. The Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) is used as a case study to measure how quickly existing areas could be densified to meet minimum transit supportive density thresholds. Almost 70% of existing residents live in neighborhoods with densities below minimum transit supportive densities. The findings show that increases in minimum densities could be attained roughly within the target time horizon of existing growth plans, but that these increases hinge on assumptions of continuing high growth rates. The sustainability of cities relies on a high ‘velocity of density’, a term proposed in the paper to refer to the speed at which density can be implemented. Density is often slowed or halted by local residents, which could prove problematic if sustainability objectives require speedy implementation, for instance to address climate change. Analysis of the velocity of density suggests that planning for sustainability, and climate change, in cities would benefit from considering a broader set of solutions to car dependence in existing low-density areas than changes to the density of the built form alone.

Travelling fair: Targeting equitable transit by understanding job location, sectorial concentration, and transit use among low-wage workers

Low-wage workers have a pressing need for adequate and affordable transportation services. However, the growing polycentricity of North American metropolises means transit providers face the difficult task of serving ever more dispersed employment centers. Deciding where limited project resources would provide the most benefit for disadvantaged populations should be a concern for transit planners and elected officials. The purpose of this research is to determine where low-wage employment zones are, where different types of low-wage jobs concentrate, and determine if job type and location have an effect on transit ridership for low-wage workers. We use a previously proposed method to identify low-wage employment zones in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area, Canada and measure job type concentration using a gravity approach. We then test to see if job type concentration and employment centres relate to ridership, while controlling for other factors that influence mode share. Our results indicate significant differences in transit use for different occupations exist. These results can help guide more transit investment and research by tackling specific occupation's travel needs.

Is It Time to Raise the Gas Tax? Optimal Gasoline Taxes for Ontario and Toronto

This article uses a representative agent model and Canadian data to calculate the optimal gasoline taxes for Ontario and the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA) in a second-best setting with pre-existing distortionary income taxes. The results suggest a second-best optimal gasoline tax of 40.57 cents per litre in 2006 Canadian dollars for the GTHA that is much higher than the current tax rate of 24.7 cents per litre, and also higher than recently proposed increases. The resulting value is insensitive to whether the additional revenue is used to reduce taxes on income or to incrementally fund increased public transit infrastructure (the Big Move plan). However, in the absence of a regional tax, the second-best optimal gasoline tax for Ontario as a whole of 28.51 cents per litre in 2006 Canadian dollars is slightly higher than the current tax rate and in line with proposed increases.

The Second-Best Optimal Gasoline Tax for the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area

This paper uses a representative agent model and Canadian data to calculate the optimal gasoline taxes for Ontario and the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA) in a second-best setting with pre-existing distortionary income taxes. The results suggest a second-best optimal gasoline tax (40.57 cents per litre in 2006 Canadian dollars) for the GTHA that is much higher than the current tax rate (24.7 cents per litre), and also higher than recently proposed increases. The resulting value is insensitive to whether the additional revenue is used to reduce taxes on income or to incrementally fund increased public transit infrastructure (The Big Move plan). However, in the absence of a regional tax, the second-best optimal gasoline tax for Ontario as a whole (28.51 cents per litre in 2006 Canadian dollars) is slightly higher than the current tax rate and in-line with proposed increases.