Is It Time to Raise the Gas Tax? Optimal Gasoline Taxes for Ontario and Toronto

Abstract

This article uses a representative agent model and Canadian data to calculate the optimal gasoline taxes for Ontario and the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA) in a second-best setting with pre-existing distortionary income taxes. The results suggest a second-best optimal gasoline tax of 40.57 cents per litre in 2006 Canadian dollars for the GTHA that is much higher than the current tax rate of 24.7 cents per litre, and also higher than recently proposed increases. The resulting value is insensitive to whether the additional revenue is used to reduce taxes on income or to incrementally fund increased public transit infrastructure (the Big Move plan). However, in the absence of a regional tax, the second-best optimal gasoline tax for Ontario as a whole of 28.51 cents per litre in 2006 Canadian dollars is slightly higher than the current tax rate and in line with proposed increases.