Greater Instability Research Articles

Tropical Easterly Waves Over Costa Rica and Their Relationship to the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall

AbstractUsing an index of tropical easterly wave (TEW) activity derived from spacetime‐filtered outgoing longwave radiation, we construct composites of long‐term hourly surface meteorological observations and morningtime sounding data collected near San José, Costa Rica to investigate how TEWs affect the diurnal cycle of rainfall over land. Our results indicate that TEWs enhance the frequency of occurrence of rain during convectively active conditions over the course of the diurnal cycle. By contrast, rainfall conditional intensity sensitivity to TEW phase appears more nuanced, with indications that active conditions induce a slight delay in the timing of the diurnal peak intensity but a longer duration of heavier rainfall. Analysis of associated hourly surface meteorology along with sounding profiles and derived thermodynamic parameters points to both initial vertical and time‐evolving surface conditions regulating diurnal behavior, such as greater instability and higher precipitable water in morningtime profiles under active phase conditions.

Weakly Forced Thunderstorms in the Southeast US Are Stronger Near Urban Areas

AbstractWhile cities are well documented to enhance precipitation through the urban rainfall effect (URE), the distinguishing characteristics of urban‐influenced storms that help establish the URE are poorly understood. The purpose of this study is to examine the morphological traits (i.e., size, duration, intensity, etc.) and near‐storm environmental conditions of weakly forced thunderstorms (WFTs) occurring near urban areas in the Southeast US relative to storms forming in surrounding rural areas. Urban WFTs are found to have higher reflectivities, are more likely to contain hail, and produce more lightning than nearby non‐urban storms, but their sizes and shapes are statistically indistinguishable. When disaggregated across individual urban areas, the increase in maximum composite reflectivity among urban storms is the most pervasive morphological difference, with 24 of the 31 cities displaying elevated reflectivities. Urban WFTs also benefit from near‐storm environments with greater instability and higher precipitation efficiency, which may further contribute to the URE.

Muslims leaving Islam for Jesus

This article discusses the chaos Muslims are experiencing all over the world and suggests that in some cases Islam is imploding. Strife and violence exist between ethnic/religious factions and brutal blasphemy laws are increasing. Floundering economies, refugees on the run, women leading protests, and Islamic radicals wreaking havoc fill the news. Amid great instability, some are leaving Islam as atheists, secularists, or nones, but many are finding their way to Christ. Building on the author’s personal research on how extremist Islam has caused some Pakistani Muslims to come to Christ, this study suggests a similar pattern in Iran, Afghanistan, and beyond. The author believes we are seeing the beginning of a great harvest among Muslims, but that Christians need fresh vision and special commitment to reach them with the gospel.

Families Navigating Macroeconomic Hard Times: The Experiences of Portuguese Emerging Adults and Their Parents in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

Amidst today’s complex financial world, understanding how family adaptation may be fostered in contexts of macroeconomic adversity is paramount. The present qualitative study sought to investigate how Portuguese families with emerging adult children have been managing macroeconomic-related demands since the Great Recession. Specifically, we aimed at uncovering the processes that may have facilitated their adaptation to macroeconomic stress over the last decade. Fourteen two-parent families with at least one emerging adult child (N = 48 participants) participated in semi-structured interviews in late 2010s. Thematic analysis yielded three key themes: (i) Appraisal, capturing family beliefs regarding their macroeconomic contexts since early to late 2010s; (ii) Demands and Impact, reflecting the macroeconomic challenges with which families were confronted; (iii) Capabilities, including coping behaviors – such as financial cutbacks implemented during the recession – and resources – such as family cohesion and parental emotional and instrumental support to emerging adults – that facilitated families’ demand management, potentially constituting key family processes in resilience during macroeconomic hard times. Despite their positive adaptation to macroeconomic demands during the most complicated years of recession, families continued to perceive great instability in their macroeconomic contexts in late 2010s, displaying concerns related to the future of emerging adults. These results highlighted that macroeconomic crises entail long-lasting impacts for individuals and families, alerting researchers, clinicians and politicians to the increased challenges currently faced by young people and their families. In addition, findings from this study can inform clinical practice and the development of multisystemic interventions aiming at helping financially stressed families.

Intervenção social em casas de acolhimento residencial em tempos de pandemia

The COVID-19 pandemic brought issues that challenged social intervention. This study aimed to investigate the challenges imposed on the dynamics of Residential Care Homes (RCH) during the pandemic. The sample included 27 participants: two technical directors, two social workers, two psychologists, four kindergarten teachers, and seventeen education assistants. Through the qualita-tive methodology, with the techniques of semi-structured interviews and content analysis, it was found that the biggest challenge is the management of children in the CAR space. At the level of the children's functioning dynamics, there was greater instability. Sanitization and the use of technolo-gy stood out in the practices used in the RCH.

Brain mechanisms associated with facial encoding of affective states.

Affective states are typically accompanied by facial expressions, but these behavioral manifestations are highly variable. Even highly arousing and negative valent experiences, such as pain, show great instability in facial affect encoding. The present study investigated which neural mechanisms are associated with variations in facial affect encoding by focusing on facial encoding of sustained pain experiences. Facial expressions, pain ratings, and brain activity (BOLD-fMRI) during tonic heat pain were recorded in 27 healthy participants. We analyzed facial expressions by using the Facial Action Coding System (FACS) and examined brain activations during epochs of painful stimulation that were accompanied by facial expressions of pain. Epochs of facial expressions of pain were coupled with activity increase in motor areas (M1, premotor and SMA) as well as in areas involved in nociceptive processing, including primary and secondary somatosensory cortex, posterior and anterior insula, and the anterior part of the mid-cingulate cortex. In contrast, prefrontal structures (ventrolateral and medial prefrontal) were less activated during incidences of facial expressions, consistent with a role in down-regulating facial displays. These results indicate that incidences of facial encoding of pain reflect activity within nociceptive pathways interacting or possibly competing with prefrontal inhibitory systems that gate the level of expressiveness.

0636 Examination of longitudinal chronotype stability in individuals with bipolar disorder and healthy controls

Abstract Introduction Introduction: Circadian rhythms have long been conceptualized as central to the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder (BD). Numerous cross-sectional analyses have demonstrated associations of eveningness with BD and greater severity of mood symptoms. Longitudinal studies that evaluate stability of chronotype and its association with mood symptoms are lacking. Methods 88 BD2) from the Prechter Longitudinal Study of BD. Participants completed an average of 10 years of longitudinal assessments of depression (PHQ-9) and mania (Altman Self-Reported Mania Scale) every 2 months, and chronotype (Munich ChronoType Questionnaire) annually. Chronotype was assessed using both a single item from the MCTQ in which seven possible chronotypes were presented (from extreme early to extreme late type), and the calculation of midpoint of sleep on work-free days, sleep-corrected (MSFsc). We calculated (in)stability using the mean square successive difference (MSSD) and assessed the relationship between mood, age, sex, medication, and stability using mixed effects models. Results Results: Individuals with BD1 and BD2 reported later chronotypes compared to HC. Individuals with BD1 had later MSFsc as well as greater instability in chronotype and MSFsc compared to HC. Greater instability in chronotype was associated with higher depression and mania symptom severity. Treatment with mood stabilizers was associated with less instability in MSFsc, while antidepressant treatment was associated with greater instability in MSFsc. Conclusion Discussion: These results provide the strongest evidence to date of later chronotypes in individuals with BD. This is the largest examination of longitudinal stability of chronotype and results indicate that only BD1 is associated with greater instability over time. This instability, in part, reflects changes in mood symptoms over time, as well as in medication use. These data highlight the importance of assessment and treatment of circadian disruption in individuals BD. Support (if any) Heinz C. Prechter Bipolar Research Program

Clinical Instability Is a Sign of Severity of Illness: A Cohort Study.

Test the hypothesis that within patient clinical instability measured by deterioration and improvement in mortality risk over 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-hour time intervals is indicative of increasing severity of illness. Analysis of electronic health data from January 1, 2018, to February 29, 2020. PICU and cardiac ICU at an academic children's hospital. All PICU patients. Data included descriptive information, outcome, and independent variables used in the Criticality Index-Mortality. None. There were 8,399 admissions with 312 deaths (3.7%). Mortality risk determined every three hours using the Criticality Index-Mortality, a machine learning algorithm calibrated to this hospital. Since the sample sizes were sufficiently large to expect statical differences, we also used two measures of effect size, the proportion of time deaths had greater instability than survivors, and the rank-biserial correlation, to assess the magnitude of the effect and complement our hypothesis tests. Within patient changes were compared for survivors and deaths. All comparisons of survivors versus deaths were less than 0.001. For all time intervals, two measures of effect size indicated that the differences between deaths and survivors were not clinically important. However, the within-patient maximum risk increase (clinical deterioration) and maximum risk decrease (clinical improvement) were both substantially greater in deaths than survivors for all time intervals. For deaths, the maximum risk increase ranged from 11.1% to 16.1% and the maximum decrease ranged from -7.3% to -10.0%, while the median maximum increases and decreases for survivors were all less than ± 0.1%. Both measures of effect size indicated moderate to high clinical importance. The within-patient volatility was greater than 4.5-fold greater in deaths than survivors during the first ICU day, plateauing at ICU days 4-5 at 2.5 greater volatility. Episodic clinical instability measured with mortality risk is a reliable sign of increasing severity of illness. Mortality risk changes during four time intervals demonstrated deaths have greater maximum and within-patient clinical instability than survivors. This observation confirms the clinical teaching that clinical instability is a sign of severity of illness.

Overweight and Obesity: Its Impact on Foot Type, Flexibility, Foot Strength, Plantar Pressure and Stability in Children from 5 to 10 Years of Age: Descriptive Observational Study

Overweight (OW) and childhood obesity (OB) may cause foot problems and affect one's ability to perform physical activities. The study aimed to analyze the differences in descriptive characteristics, foot type, laxity, foot strength, and baropodometric variables by body mass status and age groups in children and, secondly, to analyze the associations of the BMI with different physical variables by age groups in children. A descriptive observational study involving 196 children aged 5-10 years was conducted. The variables used were: type of foot, flexibility, foot strength and baropodometric analysis of plantar pressures, and stability by pressure platform. Most of the foot strength variables showed significant differences between the normal weight (NW), OW and OB groups in children aged between 5 and 8. The OW and OB groups showed the highest level of foot strength. In addition, the linear regression analyses showed, in children aged 5 to 8 years, a positive association between BMI and foot strength (the higher the BMI, the greater the strength) and negative association between BMI and stability (lower BMI, greater instability). Children from 5 to 8 years of age with OW and OB show greater levels of foot strength, and OW and OB children from 7 to 8 years are more stable in terms of static stabilometrics. Furthermore, between 5 and 8 years, having OW and OB implies having more strength and static stability.

Richard A. Settersten Jr., Glen H. Elder Jr., and Lisa D. Pearce. Living on the Edge: An American Generation’s Journey through the Twentieth Century.

Living on the Edge: The American Generation’s Journey through the 20th Century by social scientists Richard A. Settersten Jr., Glen H. Elder Jr., and Lisa D. Pearce explores one of several intergenerational studies completed during the century following 1870. The study began with the research collected under the auspices of the Berkeley Institute of Child Welfare Study of clinical psychologist Jean Walker MacFarlane. It launched in the 1920’s with the intention of following a group of families and their children longitudinally from the parental generation (1895–1908) to the children becoming grandparents in the 1970’s. The research focused on both child and adult development over time. Although not technically a “history” text, the study has much to offer historians in terms of both information and outlook. The book offers two basic premises. The first of the book’s arguments builds on the idea of “unparalleled growth” between 1870 and 1970, choosing those years as the “vital” century of change. With this growth came periods of great economic and social instability. Although there is no development of individual family profiles, the method and data, both quantitative and qualitative, is clearly enunciated throughout the work. The second assertion is that the change over one hundred years offers a model for the generation that followed, from the post-sixties “Yuppies” into the twenty-first century.

A Random Forest-Based Method for Predicting Borehole Trajectories

Drilling trajectory control technology for near-horizontal directional drilling in coal mines is mainly determined empirically by manual skew data, and the empirical results are only qualitative and variable, meanwhile possessing great instability and uncertainty. In order to improve the accuracy and efficiency of drilling trajectory prediction, this paper investigates a random forest regression-based drilling trajectory prediction method after applying numerous machine learning methods to experimental data for comparison. In the selection of prediction features, this paper replaces all feature variables of the borehole trajectory with feature values with higher cumulative influence weights, and screens out three variables with high importance, azimuth, inclination and bend at the present moment of the drill, as the input variables of the model, and the increments in the borehole in a horizontal direction, left and right direction, and up and down direction at the present moment and the next moment as the output variables of the model. In the model training, the model in this paper uses the bootstrap self-service method resampling technique to collect training sample data, constructs a random forest regression model, and takes the mean value of the decision tree output as the result of the borehole trajectory prediction. To further improve the model accuracy, the paper improves the prediction performance of the model by adjusting the parameters of the random forest model such as tree, depth, minimum sample of leaf nodes, minimum sample number of internal node division, etc. The model is also evaluated by using common machine learning evaluation metrics R2 score, RAE, RMSE and MSE. The experimental results show that the average absolute error of the model drops to 1% on the prediction of the horizontal direction and up and down direction; the average absolute error of the model drops to 9% on the prediction of the left and right direction, and this error rate reaches the error requirement in the actual construction process, so the model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of borehole trajectory while improving the safety of directional construction.

Identification of the most favorable months for coffee trade

Coffee is traded on a stock exchange on which the goods are priced and influence their value both in the physical market and in the futures market, which causes doubts in coffee growers about the most opportune moment for trading. Then, the goal of this work was to consider the most favorable and unfavorable months over the years for the arabica and robusta coffee trading in the physical market and arabica coffee in the future market. The work was carried out using historical data on the price of coffee in Brazil, stratifying it into periods and listing for each year of evaluation the percentage of months with the first and second highest and lowest prices. Arabica and Robusta coffee were assessed respectively from 2018 to 1981 and from 2018 to 1995. Arabica coffee in the futures market was analyzed from 2018 to 1980. The evaluation was performed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis among the modalities of coffee trading in Brazil. Great instability was observed between the months of high and low prices for coffee trading. This shows the uncertainties existing in the market; however, it is possible to observe a trend of the most favorable and unfavorable months for commercialization. It is determined that for arabica coffee, December and January are the most favorable and unfavorable months for trading, respectively. For robusta coffee, the most favorable and unfavorable sales months were June and January. Arabica coffee in the futures market January was the best month for trading and February in the opposite condition, in alternate years, the least favorable month.

Is marijuana a foe of male sexuality? Data from a large cohort of men with sexual dysfunction.

Although it has been assumed that chronic cannabis use may have an unfavorable impact on male sexual function and its metabolic correlates, evidence from clinical studies remains inconclusive. To investigate the relationship between cannabis use and sexual behavior, anthropometrics and metabolic/vascular profiles in a large series of men evaluated for sexual dysfunction. A total of 4800 men (mean age 50.8 years) attending an andrology outpatient clinic for sexual dysfunction were studied. Sexual symptoms, hormonal, metabolic, and instrumental (penile color Doppler ultrasound, PCDU) parameters were evaluated according to the reported habitual use of recreational substances (no use, 1-2 joints/week, >2 joints/week, and use of illicit drugs other than cannabis). When compared with non-users, cannabis users were younger and exhibited a lower prevalence of comorbidities as well as better PCDU parameters, despite reporting higher alcohol and tobacco consumption. After adjustment for confounders, cannabis use was associated with a greater instability in the couple's relationship and a higher frequency of masturbation. In addition, the group smoking >2 joints/week showed a significantly lower body mass index than both controls and users of substances other than cannabis. Men who reported using recreational drugs (either cannabis or other) exhibited significantly lower levels of both total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol than non-users. At the PCDU, smoking 1-2 joints/week was associated with significantly higher dynamic peak systolic velocity than both non-drug use and use of >2 joints/week. Prolactin levels were significantly higher in individuals smoking 1-2 joints/week and in those who used substances other than cannabis when compared with controls, whereas no difference in total testosterone levels was observed. In men with sexual dysfunction, mild cannabis consumption may be associated with a more favorable anthropometric and lipid profile and with a better penile arterial vascular response to intracavernous prostaglandin injection.

Effects of fibre addition and processing on the stability, rheology and in vitro gastric digestion of whey protein-xanthan gum stabilised emulsions with high oil phase

The aim of work was to structure and characterise the high rapeseed oil emulsions stabilised by xanthan gum rich whey protein with an inclusion of commercially available added fibre (Vitacel HF0010 plus) as an additional stabiliser. The manufactured emulsions were also tested whether they can re-build the emulsion property after drying, water addition and re-emulsification. The emulsions with a ratio of 60/40 for rapeseed oil to water phase were obtained with a fibre inclusion at 0.25, 0.50 and 1.00% using a high shear homogenisation. Drying processing, rehydration and re-emulsification only led to re-build emulsion structure with 0.50 and 1.00% fibre. After re-emulsification, some fibre occurred as insoluble particles and were allocated at the oil-water interface or continuous phase of emulsion. Interestingly, processed sample with 1.00% fibre had the greatest instability when subjected to in vitro gastric digestion assay. All primary emulsions and processed emulsions with 0.50 and 1.00% fibre, were stable against coalescence with no oil loss and resulted in almost identical droplet size after a day 30 of storage at 4(±1)°C. All the structured emulsions showed shear-thinning behaviour. The fabricated emulsions showed a feature of regaining emulsion structure, which extend their applications in food formulation as clean label emulsions.

Investigating the Influence of Water Vapor on Heavy Rainfall Events in the Southern Korean Peninsula

In this study, we examined the influence of water vapor on heavy rainfall events over the complex mountainous terrain of the southern Korean Peninsula using rawinsonde and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) datasets from a mobile observation vehicle (MOVE). Results demonstrated that the prevailing southeasterly winds enhanced precipitation on the leeward side of the mountainous region. The probability of severe rainfall increased in the highest precipitable water vapor (PWV) bin (>60 mm). A lead–lag analysis demonstrated that the atmosphere remained moist for 1 h before and after heavy rainfall. The temporal behavior of PWV retrieved from the MOVE-GNSS data demonstrated that during Changma (the summer monsoon) (Case 1), heavy rainfall events experience a steep decrease after a long increasing trend in PWV. However, the most intense rainfall events occurred after a rapid increase in PWV along with a strong southwesterly water vapor flow during convective instability (Case 2), and they had consistently higher moisture and greater instability than those in Case 1 over the entire period. The results of this study can provide some insights to improve the predictability of heavy rainfall in the southern Korean Peninsula.

Improving the forecasting accuracy of interval-valued carbon price from a novel multi-scale framework with outliers detection: An improved interval-valued time series analysis mode

Accurate carbon price forecasting can provide policymakers with a reasonable basis for carbon pricing. Interval-valued carbon price forecasting could provide sufficient information compared with real-valued carbon price time series prediction. On the other hand, current interval-valued carbon price forecasting has major challenges including data complexity, outliers, and the selection of forecasting methods, which make the forecasting results with great uncertainty and instability. To address these issues, this paper proposes an interval-valued carbon price forecasting method based on new data processing techniques, and discusses the effects of different combinations of interval variables on the forecasting results. We first established interval complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) and interval outlier detection method (I-ksigma) to reduce the data complexity and identify outliers. Then, various neural network models include interval multilayer perceptron (IMLP), multi-output support vector regression (MSVR), long short-term memory network (LSTM), gated recurrent unit neural network (GRU), and convolution neural network (CNN) are chosen to conduct combination forecasting on the interval sub-modes produced by ICEEMDAN. The final results are obtained by summing the interval sub-modes. Finally, taking the carbon trading price in Hubei as the research object, the results show that the developed forecasting framework is superior to all comparison models in forecasting precision and stability. Furthermore, different combinations of interval variables (CRM, Minmax, L + 2R, and U-2R) lead to different decomposition results and outlier detection results, which finally affect the prediction results.

Pakistan and Central Asian Relations in the Context of Global Politics

Central Asia and South-West Asia have become more important in world politics in recent years, especially when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and after it left at the start of the US-Afghan war. In other words, the closing of the twentieth century and the beginning of the twenty-first century have developed multifaceted political environments in the region, which have involved Pakistan as well. Central Asia is the second largest energy reservoir of oil, gas, and hydrocarbons after the Persian Gulf and is the core region of the Asian continent, whereas Pakistan is located at the convergence of South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia and provides the shortest access to warm water seas for all landlocked Central Asian states. Pakistan also acts as a junction of multiple corridors of economic cooperation between these three regions in the fields of energy, trade, transportation, and tourism. Pakistan will become an economic centre and spur interregional economic activity as a result of the communication and commercial links that connect South Asia, Central Asia, and West Asia. Most of the research available on Central Asia and Pakistan is focused either on the Great Game and internal instability of Central Asian states or on the historical linkage and cultural association of Pakistan with Central Asia, with a superficial discussion on regional trade between them. No research has been done on the geopolitical and economic position of Pakistan in Central Asia, and the instability in Afghanistan is also affecting the associations between Pakistan and Central Asian States. In this research paper, the emphasis has been laid on why geostrategic and economic relations between Pakistan and Central Asian states are significant. Certain other questions have also been answered, like: what is the geopolitical significance of Pakistan and the CARs in world politics? What are the divergent interests of local and international powers in Central Asia? And how has the conflict of interests among these actors hampered the economic development of Pakistan and the CARs? Descriptive and analytical research methodologies are used to probe into the phenomenon of global politics.

Macroeconomics and the Construction Sector: Evidence from Portugal

Construction activity is considered one of the primary indicators of a country’s global economic evolution. This article aims to study the cyclical fluctuations of construction production and its relationship with the aggregate business cycles in Portugal over the last six decades. We started by analysing the evolution of an indicator set inherent to the functioning of the construction sector. Then, we extracted the construction output cycles and examined their association with the Portuguese business cycles since the 1960s, focusing on crisis periods. The results demonstrate that the construction sector contributes significantly to the Portuguese economy and the cyclical construction activity fluctuations correlate strongly with the aggregate fluctuations, albeit with greater instability. Finally, we discuss the current problems the construction sector faces and the COVID-19 pandemic effects. Keywords: construction sector, business cycles, volatility, synchronisation, crisis

The Month Effect in the Baltic and Nordic Stock Markets at Market-Level and Sector-Level

The purpose of this study is to analyze and compare the trends in the expression of the month effect in the Nasdaq Baltic and Nasdaq Nordic stock markets, as well as to examine whether the seasonal stock price fluctuations occur in all industrial sectors of these markets or are specific to certain sectors only. The OMX Baltic Benchmark, OMX Baltic, and OMX Nordic 40 indexes, which reflect the situation in the Baltic and Nordic stock markets, were used in the study to assess seasonality at the market level. To assess the seasonality in separate sectors of the Baltic and Nordic markets, we used sectoral indexes calculated in these markets. The data sample covers the period from January 2, 2004 through December 31, 2019. The methodology of the research used to examine seasonality in daily returns entails estimating a regression with dummies and GARCH (1,1) to capture month effects. Although the results of OLS and GARCH (1,1) analysis were quite different, they proved the existence of the month effect in both the Baltic and Nordic stock markets. The results of the analysis of seasonal fluctuations in stock prices at sector-level evidenced that month effects appear both in Baltic market and Nordic market, which allows earning abnormal returns in particular months for those who invested in stock of certain sectors. Our research has evidenced that trends in the volatility of stock prices in separate months in the Baltic countries are not stable and are characterized by greater instability as compared to the Nordic countries.

The Impact of Storytelling on the Preschoolers' Psycho-Emotional Development

Known as the golden age of childhood, the period between 3 and 7 years old is characterized by an obvious evolution from a state of general equilibrium within the family environment, to a state of great instability and expansion. The preschooler is moving briskly towards more appropriate conduct of social conveniences and develops a lot of independence, contributes decisively to the establishment of his own internal structure, the Self, and launches into the universe of imagination. An intense psycho-emotional development is now supported by a continuous interrogation fuelled by countless "why" and "how", and great curiosity is a fascinating motive towards the world of storytelling, as a place of expression of thoughts, feelings and finally, actions. The method of storytelling in various current pedagogies, such as that proposed by Franz Kett, proves its effectiveness precisely by the happy combination of imagination and story, on one hand, and the extremely important role of sensations and perceptions in the mental and emotional plane, on the other. The universe of childhood thus has the chance to be a place of symbolic integration of dialogue with itself and with the world.