Great Salinity Anomaly Research Articles

On the Relation between Thermohaline Anomalies and Water Mass Transformation in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

Abstract Decadal thermohaline anomalies carried northward by the North Atlantic Current are an important source of predictability in the North Atlantic region. Here, we investigate whether these thermohaline anomalies influence surface-forced water mass transformation (SFWMT) in the eastern subpolar gyre using the reanalyses EN4.2.2 for the ocean and the ERA5 for the atmosphere. In addition, we follow the propagation of thermohaline anomalies along two paths: in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea. We use observation-based datasets (HadISST, EN4.2.2, and Ishii) between 1947 and 2021 and apply complex empirical orthogonal functions. Our results show that when a warm anomaly enters the eastern subpolar gyre, more SFWMT occurs in light-density classes (27.0–27.2 kg m−3). In contrast, when a cold anomaly enters the eastern subpolar gyre, more SFWMT occurs in denser classes (27.4–27.5 kg m−3). Following the thermohaline anomalies in both paths, we find alternating warm–salty and cold–fresh subsurface anomalies, repeating throughout the 74-yr-long record with four warm–salty and cold–fresh periods after the 1950s. The cold–fresh anomaly periods happen simultaneously with the Great Salinity Anomaly events. Moreover, the propagation of thermohaline anomalies is faster in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) than in the Norwegian Sea, especially for temperature anomalies. These findings might have implications for our understanding of the decadal variability of the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and predictability in the North Atlantic region. Significance Statement Anomalously warm–salty or cold–fresh water, carried by the North Atlantic Current toward the Arctic, is a source of climate predictability. In this study, we investigate 1) how these ocean anomalies influence the transformation of water masses in the eastern subpolar gyre and 2) their subsequent propagation poleward and northwestward. The key findings reveal that anomalously warm waters entering the eastern subpolar gyre lead to increased transformation in lighter water masses, while cold anomalies affect denser water masses. These anomalies propagate more than 2 times faster toward the Greenland coast (northwestward) than toward the Arctic (poleward). Our findings contribute to enhancing the understanding of decadal predictability in the northern North Atlantic, including its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Odden Ice Melt Linked to Labrador Sea Ice Expansions and the Great Salinity Anomalies of 1970–1995

AbstractIn each of the last three decades of the 20th century there were unprecedented expansions of sea‐ice over the Labrador Sea basin and influxes of cold fresh water into the subpolar gyre (SPG) which have been described as the Great Salinity Anomalies (GSAs). Employing data for sea surface temperature, salinity, and sea‐ice cover, we propose that these events were downstream consequences of the expansion and subsequent melting of so‐called “Odden” ice formed over the deep basin of the Greenland‐Iceland‐Norway (GIN) Sea in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s and additional to the normal East Greenland shelf sea‐ice. We extend previous findings that Odden ice expansions were linked to winter episodes of high atmospheric pressure north of Greenland that directed freezing Arctic winds across the GIN Sea and may also have been associated with increased Arctic sea‐ice volume leading to enhanced ice export through Fram Strait. We show that cold water and ice derived from Odden melting in the summer passed through Denmark Strait and along the East Greenland shelf, and accumulated in the Labrador Sea, creating favorable conditions for winter ice formation during particularly cold years in southwest Greenland. Meltwater from Odden and Labrador Sea ice appeared to break out into the SPG in the fall of 1982 and 1984 respectively and this cold water represents the likely source of the 1982–1985 GSA. These findings further our understanding of the physical processes linking ice formation and melt with ocean circulation in this key component of the climate system.

Investigation of the Source of Iceland Basin Freshening: Virtual Particle Tracking with Satellite-Derived Geostrophic Surface Velocities

In the 2010s, a large freshening event similar to past Great Salinity Anomalies occurred in the Iceland Basin that has since propagated into the Irminger Sea. The source waters of this fresh anomaly were hypothesized to have come from an eastward diversion of the Labrador Current, a finding that has since been supported by recent modeling studies. In this study, we investigate the pathways of the freshwater anomaly using a purely observational approach: particle tracking using satellite altimetry-derived surface velocity fields. Particle trajectories originating in the Labrador Current and integrated forward in time entered the Iceland Basin during the freshening event at nearly twice the frequency observed prior to 2009, suggesting an increased presence of Labrador Current-origin water in the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough during the freshening. We observe a distinct regime change in 2009, similar to the timing found in the previous modeling papers. These spatial shifts were accompanied by faster transit times along the pathways which led to along-stream convergence and more particles arriving to the eastern subpolar gyre. These findings support the hypothesis that a diversion of relatively fresh Labrador Current waters eastward from the Grand Banks can explain the unprecedented freshening in the Iceland Basin.

Multidecadal Water Mass Dynamics on the West Greenland Shelf

AbstractThe waters on the West Greenland continental shelf and slope play an important role in the global climate system with their link to the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean circulation system and the Greenland Ice Sheet. Lately, low temperature waters on the West Greenland shelf have been observed as far south as ∼64°N and associated with a cold and relatively saline water mass originating north of Davis Strait in Baffin Bay referred to as Baffin Bay Polar Water (BBPW). Here we use long, seasonal hydrographic time series from West Greenland at ∼64°N to study how frequently BBPW is reaching this far south. The analysis covers the period 1950–2018 with a data gap between 1988 and 2005. BBPW was observed frequently and was responsible for the temperature changes observed in the late 1960s–1980s and more intermittently post‐2008. Some of the large temperature changes we observe in the time series have previously been ascribed to “Great Salinity Anomalies” (GSAs) propagating around the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean circulation system. The prevailing view of the propagation of GSAs has been ascribed to advection of anomalies along the large‐scale circulation system. Our study shows that BBPW may play an important role in the interpretation of GSAs and melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Large temporal temperature changes at ∼64°N are associated with arrival of BBPW from the north and not advection of anomalies with the large‐scale current system from the south. This advocates for a shift in water masses caused by changes in the position and/or strength of oceanic currents.

Arrival of New Great Salinity Anomaly Weakens Convection in the Irminger Sea

AbstractThe Subpolar North Atlantic is prone to recurrent extreme freshening events called Great Salinity Anomalies (GSAs). Here, we combine hydrographic ocean analyses and moored observations to document the arrival, spreading, and impacts of the most recent GSA in the Irminger Sea. This GSA is associated with a rapid freshening of the upper Irminger Sea between 2015 and 2020, culminating in annually averaged salinities as low as the freshest years of the 1990s and possibly since 1960. Upon the GSA propagation into the Irminger Sea over the Reykjanes Ridge, the boundary currents rapidly advected its signal around the basin within months while fresher waters slowly spread and accumulated into the interior. The anomalies in the interior freshened waters produced by deep convection during the 2017–2018 winter and actively contributed to the suppression of deep convection in the following two winters.

Causal Mechanisms of Sea-level and Freshwater Content Change in the Beaufort Sea

AbstractIn the Arctic’s Beaufort Sea, the rate of sea-level rise over the last two decades has been an order of magnitude greater than that of its global mean. This rapid regional sea-level rise is mainly a halosteric change, reflecting an increase in Beaufort Sea’s freshwater content comparable to that associated with the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s in the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we provide a new perspective of these Beaufort Sea variations by quantifying their causal mechanisms from 1992 to 2017 using a global, data-constrained ocean and sea-ice estimate of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) consortium. Our analysis reveals wind and sea-ice jointly driving the variations. Seasonal variation mainly reflects near-surface change due to annual melting and freezing of sea-ice, while interannual change extends deeper and mostly relates to wind-driven Ekman transport. Increasing wind stress and sea-ice melt are, however, equally important for decadal change that dominates the overall variation. Strengthening anticyclonic wind stress surrounding the Beaufort Sea intensifies the ocean’s lateral Ekman convergence of relatively fresh near-surface waters. The strengthening stress also enhances convergence of sea-ice and ocean heat that increase the amount of Beaufort Sea’s net sea-ice melt. The enhanced significance at longer time-scales of sea-ice melt relative to direct wind forcing can be attributed to ocean’s advection and mixing of melt-water being slower than its dynamic adjustment to mechanical perturbations. The adjustments’ difference implies that the sea-ice-melt-driven diabatic change will persist longer than the direct wind-driven kinematic anomaly.

Nordic Seas Hydrography in the Context of Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics

AbstractThe hydrography of the Nordic seas, a critical site for deep convective mixing, is controlled by various processes. On one hand, Arctic Ocean exports are thought to freshen the North Atlantic Ocean and the Nordic seas, as in the Great Salinity Anomalies (GSAs) of the 1970s–1990s. On the other hand, the salinity of the Nordic seas covaries with that of the Atlantic inflow across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, leaving an uncertain role for Arctic Ocean exports. In this study, multidecadal time series (1950–2018) of the Nordic seas hydrography, Subarctic Front (SAF) in the North Atlantic Ocean [separating the water masses of the relatively cool, fresh Subpolar Gyre (SPG) from the warm, saline Subtropical Gyre (STG)], and atmospheric forcing are examined and suggest a unified view. The Nordic seas freshwater content is shown to covary on decadal time scales with the position of the SAF. When the SPG is strong, the SAF shifts eastward of its mean position, increasing the contribution of subpolar relative to subtropical source water to the Atlantic inflow, and vice versa. This suggests that Arctic Ocean fluxes primarily influence the hydrography of the Nordic seas via indirect means (i.e., by freshening the SPG). Case studies of two years with anomalous NAO conditions illustrate how North Atlantic Ocean dynamics relate to the position of the SAF (as indicated by hydrographic properties and stratification changes in the upper water column), and therefore to the properties of the Atlantic inflow and Nordic seas.

Revisiting the Causal Connection between the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s and the Shutdown of Labrador Sea Deep Convection

AbstractThe Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA) of the 1970s is the most pronounced decadal-scale low-salinity event observed in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). Using various simulations with the Community Earth System Model, here we offer an alternative view on some aspects of the GSA. Specifically, we examine the relative roles of reduced surface heat flux associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and extreme Fram Strait sea ice export (FSSIE) in the late 1960s as possible drivers of the shutdown of Labrador Sea (LS) deep convection. Through composite analysis of a long control simulation, the individual oceanic impacts of extreme FSSIE and surface heat flux events in the LS are isolated. A dominant role for the surface heat flux events for the suppression of convection and freshening in the interior LS is found, while the FSSIE events play a surprisingly minor role. The interior freshening results from reduced mixing of fresher upper ocean with saltier deep ocean. In addition, we find that the downstream propagation of the freshwater anomaly across the SPNA is potentially induced by the persistent negative NAO forcing in the 1960s through an adjustment of thermohaline circulation, with the extreme FSSIE-induced low-salinity anomaly mostly remaining in the boundary currents in the western SPNA. Our results suggest a prominent driving role of the NAO-related heat flux forcing for key aspects of the observed GSA, including the shutdown of LS convection and transbasin propagation of low-salinity waters.

Multi-decadal warming of Atlantic water and associated decline of dissolved oxygen in a deep fjord

Previous studies have shown decline in dissolved oxygen of the ocean basins. A hypothesis for this development is that ocean warming through increased stratification has caused reduced ventilation of the interior ocean. Here we provide evidence that reduced ventilation, which has been associated with a 1 °C warming of the North Atlantic Water (NAW), has contributed to recent deoxygenation of the mesopelagic zone of a Norwegian fjord, Masfjorden. Our results suggest that after the North Atlantic “Great Salinity Anomalies” around 1980, this warming has led to a decreased frequency of high-density intrusions of oxygen rich NAW and thereby reduced the renewal of the basin water of Masfjorden. From this, we infer that the basin water of other deep fjords are prone to similar development and briefly discuss some potential implications of deoxygenation in the mesopelagic zone.

Gulf Stream Excursions and Sectional Detachments Generate the Decadal Pulses in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Decadal pulses within the lower-frequency Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are a prominent but underappreciated AMO feature, representing decadal variability of the subpolar gyre (e.g., the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s) and wielding notable influence on the hydroclimate of the African and American continents. Here clues are sought into their origin in the spatiotemporal development of the Gulf Stream’s (GS) meridional excursions and sectional detachments apparent in the 1954–2012 record of ocean surface and subsurface salinity and temperature observations. The GS excursions are tracked via meridional displacement of the 15°C isotherm at 200-m depth—the GS index—whereas the AMO’s decadal pulses are targeted through the AMO tendency, which implicitly highlights the shorter time scales of the AMO index. The GS’s northward shift is shown to be preceded by the positive phase of the low-frequency North Atlantic Oscillation (LF-NAO) and followed by a positive AMO tendency by 1.25 and 2.5 years, respectively. The temporal phasing is such that the GS’s northward shift is nearly concurrent with the AMO’s cold decadal phase (cold, fresh subpolar gyre). Ocean–atmosphere processes that can initiate phase reversal of the gyre state are discussed, starting with the reversal of the LF-NAO, leading to a mechanistic hypothesis for decadal fluctuations of the subpolar gyre. According to the hypothesis, the fluctuation time scale is set by the self-feedback of the LF-NAO from its influence on SSTs in the seas around Greenland, and by the cross-basin transit of the GS’s detached eastern section; the latter is produced by the southward intrusion of subpolar water through the Newfoundland basin, just prior to the GS’s northward shift in the western basin.

Physical properties of the formation of water exchange between Atlantic and Arctic Ocean

Physical regularities of water exchange between the North Atlantic (NA) and Arctic Ocean (AO) in 1958–2009 are analyzed on the basis of numerical experiments with an eddy-permitting model of ocean circulation. Variations in the heat and salt fluxes in the Greenland Sea near the Fram Strait caused by atmospheric forcing generate baroclinic modes of ocean currents in the 0–300 m layer, which stabilize the response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing. This facilitates the conservation of water exchange between the NA and AO at a specific climatic level. A quick response of dense water outflow into the deep layers of the NA through the Denmark Strait to the variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was revealed on the monthly scale. A response on a time scale of 39 months was also revealed. The quick response on the NAO index variation was interrupted in 1969–1978, which was related to the Great Salinity Anomaly. It was shown that transverse oscillations of the Norwegian Atlantic Current significantly influence the formation of intermediate dense waters in the Greenland and Norwegian seas (GNS). The dense water outflow by bottom current (BC) to the deep layers of the NA through the Faroe Channels with a time lag of 1 year correlates with the transversal oscillations of the Norwegian Current front. The mass transport of the BC outflow from the Faroe Channels to the NA can serve as an integral indicator of the formation and sink of new portions of dense waters formed as a result of mixing of warm saline Atlantic waters and cold freshened Arctic waters in the GNS.

Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean

The Greenland ice sheet has experienced increasing mass loss since the 1990s1, 2. The enhanced freshwater flux due to both surface melt and outlet glacier discharge is assuming an increasingly important role in the changing freshwater budget of the subarctic Atlantic3. The sustained and increasing freshwater fluxes from Greenland to the surface ocean could lead to a suppression of deep winter convection in the Labrador Sea, with potential ramifications for the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation4, 5, 6. Here we assess the impact of the increases in the freshwater fluxes, reconstructed with full spatial resolution3, using a global ocean circulation model with a grid spacing fine enough to capture the small-scale, eddying transport processes in the subpolar North Atlantic. Our simulations suggest that the invasion of meltwater from the West Greenland shelf has initiated a gradual freshening trend at the surface of the Labrador Sea. Although the freshening is still smaller than the variability associated with the episodic ‘great salinity anomalies’, the accumulation of meltwater may become large enough to progressively dampen the deep winter convection in the coming years. We conclude that the freshwater anomaly has not yet had a significant impact on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Greenland freshwater pathways in the sub‐ArcticSeas from model experiments with passive tracers

AbstractAccelerating since the early 1990s, the Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss exerts a significant impact on thermohaline processes in the sub‐Arctic seas. Surplus freshwater discharge from Greenland since the 1990s, comparable in volume to the amount of freshwater present during the Great Salinity Anomaly events, could spread and accumulate in the sub‐Arctic seas, influencing convective processes there. However, hydrographic observations in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, where the Greenland freshening signal might be expected to propagate, do not show a persistent freshening in the upper ocean during last two decades. This raises the question of where the surplus Greenland freshwater has propagated. In order to investigate the fate, pathways, and propagation rate of Greenland meltwater in the sub‐Arctic seas, several numerical experiments using a passive tracer to track the spreading of Greenland freshwater have been conducted as a part of the Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis effort. The models show that Greenland freshwater propagates and accumulates in the sub‐Arctic seas, although the models disagree on the amount of tracer propagation into the convective regions. Results highlight the differences in simulated physical mechanisms at play in different models and underscore the continued importance of intercomparison studies. It is estimated that surplus Greenland freshwater flux should have caused a salinity decrease by 0.06–0.08 in the sub‐Arctic seas in contradiction with the recently observed salinification (by 0.15–0.2) in the region. It is surmised that the increasing salinity of Atlantic Water has obscured the freshening signal.

CLIMATIC IMPLICATIONS OF THE FRESH WATER EXPANSION IN THE GREENLAND SEA AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC

In second part of XX century there are three valuable salinity anomalies in North Atlantic, so-called «The Great Salinity Anomaly» (GSA), which can be characterized as a large, near-surface pool of fresher water [31–33, 36, 37]. There are GSA’70s, GSA’80s and GSA’90s. Dickson [37] described this event as one of dramatic and prolonged changes in ocean’s climate in XX century. In this paper, we have shown genesis of GSA’70s connected with ice production in Arctic flaw leads. Formation of GSAs’ in 1980s and 1990s has, at least, two main reasons. First is fresh water pools and huge amounts of ice carried out fromArcticBasin. The second one is recirculation of previous salinity anomaly inSubarcticBasin. Phenomenological model of climate change formation in polar and subpolar zone of North Hemisphere is presented in the paper. Examination conditions of previous GSA’s appearance and analysis of valuable fresh water intrusions in North Atlantic allow us to conclude that conditions for GSA’2010s are formed already and started to propagate inNorth Atlantic. For the first time we described GSA during its appearance, not post factum. Thus, we are standing at the break point of relatively long cooling inArctic.

Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions

While bidecadal climate variability has been evidenced in several North Atlantic paleoclimate records, its drivers remain poorly understood. Here we show that the subset of CMIP5 historical climate simulations that produce such bidecadal variability exhibits a robust synchronization, with a maximum in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) 15 years after the 1963 Agung eruption. The mechanisms at play involve salinity advection from the Arctic and explain the timing of Great Salinity Anomalies observed in the 1970s and the 1990s. Simulations, as well as Greenland and Iceland paleoclimate records, indicate that coherent bidecadal cycles were excited following five Agung-like volcanic eruptions of the last millennium. Climate simulations and a conceptual model reveal that destructive interference caused by the Pinatubo 1991 eruption may have damped the observed decreasing trend of the AMOC in the 2000s. Our results imply a long-lasting climatic impact and predictability following the next Agung-like eruption.

An Anatomy of the Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s

Abstract In the 1960s and early 1970s, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean cooled rapidly. There is still considerable uncertainty about the causes of this event, although various mechanisms have been proposed. In this observational study, it is demonstrated that the cooling proceeded in several distinct stages. Cool anomalies initially appeared in the mid-1960s in the Nordic Seas and Gulf Stream extension, before spreading to cover most of the subpolar gyre. Subsequently, cool anomalies spread into the tropical North Atlantic before retreating, in the late 1970s, back to the subpolar gyre. There is strong evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation, linked to a southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ, played an important role in the event, particularly in the period 1972–76. Theories for the cooling event must account for its distinctive space–time evolution. The authors’ analysis suggests that the most likely drivers were 1) the “Great Salinity Anomaly” of the late 1960s; 2) an earlier warming of the subpolar North Atlantic, which may have led to a slowdown in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and 3) an increase in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. Determining the relative importance of these factors is a key area for future work.

On the Early Response of the Climate System to a Meltwater Input from Greenland

Abstract The early response of the atmosphere–ocean system to meltwater runoff originating from the Greenland ice sheet is studied using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). For this purpose, AOGCM ensemble simulations without and with associated ocean freshening around Greenland are compared. For freshwater perturbations initiated in northern winter, the mean response for the first three months shows the emergence of negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Denmark Strait, in association with enhanced oceanic advection by the East Greenland Current. The response also shows negative SST anomalies in the North Atlantic associated with enhanced westerlies at the ocean surface. Additionally, the baroclinic atmospheric cyclonic circulation east of Greenland intensifies, and anticyclonic circulations with equivalent barotropic structures develop over western Europe and the North Pacific Ocean. Simulations by the atmospheric component of the AOGCM indicate that atmosphere–ocean interactions contribute significantly to enhance the response. The sensitivity of the coupled system response to the timing of freshwater perturbation is also studied. For freshwater perturbations initialized in northern summer, the response during the following winter is similar, but stronger in magnitude. In the Northern Hemisphere, the atmospheric response resembles the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode of variability. The association between anomalies in the Denmark Strait SSTs and in the atmosphere east of Greenland is consistent with that observed during previous great salinity anomaly (GSA) events. The results obtained highlight the importance of atmosphere–ocean interaction in the early climate response to Greenland melting, the teleconnections with the North Pacific and the contribution of GSA events to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability.

Along-shelf hydrographic anomalies in the Nordic Seas (1960–2011): locally generated or advective signals?

The northward flow of warm and saline Atlantic Water through the eastern Nordic Seas sustains a spring-bloom ecosystem that hosts some of the world’s largest commercial fish stocks. Abrupt climatic changes, or changes beyond species-specific thresholds, may have severe effects on species abundance and distribution. Here, we utilize a numerical ocean model hindcast to explore the similarities and differences between large-scale anomalies, such as great salinity anomalies, and along-shelf hydrographic anomalies of regional origin, which represent abrupt changes at subannual time scales. The large-scale anomalies enter the Nordic Seas to the south and propagate northward at a speed one order of magnitude less than the Atlantic Water current speed. On the contrary, wind-generated along-shelf anomalies appear simultaneously along the Norwegian continental shelf and propagate northward at speeds associated with topographically trapped Kelvin waves. This process involves changes in the vertical extent of the Atlantic Water along the continental slope. Such a dynamic oceanic response both affects thermal habitats and has the potential to ventilate shelf waters by modifying the cross-shelf transport of nutrients and key prey items for early stages of fish.

Possible North Atlantic origin for changes in ENSO properties during the 1970s

The most intense El Nino episodes in more than a century occurred after the 1970s climate shift. Previous studies show that the characteristics of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon changed synchronously with the shift, but the associated causes are not fully understood. An analysis of the observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies shows that their increase in the eastern part of the basin after the 1970s is not related to the canonical ENSO pattern, but to the tropical Pacific meridional mode (TPMM). We present observational evidence which supports the hypothesis that the change in the TPMM was triggered by the great salinity anomaly (GSA), which manifested in the North Atlantic during the late 1960s. The GSA induced a weak Labrador convection and a SST dipole south of Greenland. The associated atmospheric structure includes a North Pacific Oscillation sea level pressure dipole in the Pacific sector. This excites the TPMM which contributes to the intense El Nino events and to the enhanced ENSO’s asymmetry, observed after the shift. Our results imply that, if the GSA has not an anthropic origin, as was suggested, then the tropical Pacific climate shift has a natural origin. This is supported by the end of the North Atlantic regime in the 1990s and by the rebound of the tropical Pacific after 1998.

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.