Great Moderation Research Articles

What's so great about the Great Moderation?

This paper examines how volatilities of output growth and inflation have changed over a long period for eight countries. We obtain a number of robust empirical results based on a variety of different econometric methods. The lowest volatility occurs during or shortly after the Great Moderation period. Volatility is reduced during that time for most of the countries; however, these reductions in volatility pale in comparison with stability gains achieved during two other periods. One of those periods is the Postwar Moderation, which began near the end of World War II for each country. Not only is the decline in volatility impressive, but also the volatility is typically at the lowest level up to that point in a sample or at least has fallen to a low not seen for decades. And those reductions in volatility are statistically significant, in contrast to the Great Moderation. A second fall in volatility that in nearly all cases exceeds that of the Great Moderation is for inflation during the 1920s. And this moderation in inflation during the 1920s is statistically significant in almost every case. Overall, these and a number of other notable changes in volatility are remarkably robust across countries, different data sources, and alternative econometric methodologies. For example, implementation of a broad-based fixed exchange rate system is typically associated with a substantial reduction in macroeconomic volatility. Another finding, obtained from structural vector autoregression models, is that the changes in volatility for each variable are primarily driven by a fundamentally different type of disturbance.

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.

The Great Deception: The Sciencee of Monetary Policy and the Great Moderation Revisited

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Great Moderation was caused by either good policy, good luck (favourable shocks), more efficient private sector behaviour (such as better inventory management), or more effective financial innovations. We show that it may, instead, have originated from the complementarity of an erroneous reading of the economy by central bankers and evolutionarily time-varying heterogeneity in inflation expectations formation within the private sector. One general finding of our analysis is that seemingly inadequate stabilization policies may, in fact, work. We comment on the broader ramifications for stabilization policy of this finding.

Leverage and Deepening Business Cycle Skewness

We document that the U.S. economy has been characterized by an increasingly negative business cycle asymmetry over the last three decades. This finding can be explained by the concurrent increase in the financial leverage of households and firms. To support this view, we devise and estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model with collateralized borrowing and occasionally binding credit constraints. Higher leverage increases the likelihood that constraints become slack in the face of expansionary shocks, while contractionary shocks are further amplified due to binding constraints. As a result, booms become progressively smoother and more prolonged than busts. We are therefore able to reconcile a more negatively skewed business cycle with the Great Moderation in cyclical volatility. Finally, in line with recent empirical evidence, financially-driven expansions lead to deeper contractions, as compared with equally-sized non-financial expansions.

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic Research

Crises in Economic Thought, Secular Stagnation, and Future Economic Research

Good Policies or Good Luck? New Insights on Globalization and the International Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

The open-economy dimension is central to the discussion of the trade-offs that monetary policy faces in an increasingly integrated world. I investigate the monetary policy transmission mechanism in a two-country workhorse New Keynesian model where policy is set according to Taylor (1993) rules. I find that a common monetary policy isolates the effects of trade openness on the cross-country dispersion, and that the establishment of a currency union as a means of deepening economic integration may lead to indeterminacy. I argue that the common (coordinated) monetary policy equilibrium is the relevant benchmark for policy analysis showing that in that case open economies tend to experience lower macro volatility, a flatter Phillips curve, and more accentuated trade-offs between inflation and slack. Moreover, I show that the trade elasticity often magnifies the effects of trade integration (globalization) beyond what conventional measures of trade openness would imply. I also discuss how other features such as the impact of a stronger anti-inflation bias, technological diffusion across countries, and the sensitivity of labor supply to real wages influence the quantitative effects of policy and openness in this context. Finally, I conclude that the theoretical predictions of the workhorse open-economy New Keynesian model are largely consistent with the stylized facts of the globalization era started in the 1960s and the Great Moderation period that followed.

Fiscal Foundations of Inflation: Imperfect Knowledge

This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High moderate-duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments, in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model, reveal the US economy would have been substantially more volatile over the Great Inflation and Great Moderation periods, had average debt been consistent with levels currently observed in Italy or Japan.

Good Policies or Good Luck? New Insights on Globalization and the International Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

The open-economy dimension is central to the discussion of the trade-offs that monetary policy faces in an increasingly integrated world. I investigate the monetary policy transmission mechanism in a two-country workhorse New Keynesian model where policy is set according to Taylor (in: Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy, vol 39, pp. 195–214, 1993) rules. I find that a common monetary policy isolates the effects of trade linkages on the cross-country dispersion alone, and that the establishment of a currency union as a means of deepening policy integration may lead to indeterminacy. I argue that the common (coordinated) monetary policy equilibrium is the relevant benchmark for policy analysis showing that open economies tend to experience lower macro volatility, a flatter Phillips curve, and more accentuated trade-offs between inflation and slack. Moreover, the trade elasticity often magnifies the effects of trade integration (globalization) beyond what conventional measures of trade openness would imply. I also discuss how other features such as the strength of a common anti-inflation bias in policymaking, technological diffusion across countries, and the sensitivity of labor supply to real wages influence the quantitative effects of policy and openness in this context. Finally, I conclude that these theoretical predictions are largely consistent with the stylized facts of the Great Moderation.

(Un)Expected Monetary Policy Shocks and Term Premia

We analyze an estimated stochastic general equilibrium model that replicates key macroeconomic and financial stylized facts during the Great Moderation of 1983-2007. Our model predicts a sizeable and volatile nominal term premium - comparable to recent reduced-form empirical estimates - with real risk two times more important than in ation risk for the average nominal term premia. The model enables us to address salient questions about the effects of monetary policy on the term structure of interest rates. We nd that monetary policy shocks can have differing effects on risk premia. Actions by the monetary authority with a persistent effect on households' expectations have substantial effects on nominal and real risk premia. Our model rationalizes many of the opposing ndings on the effects of monetary policy on term premia in the empirical literature.

A Empirical Study on the Moderating Effect of Influencing Factors over R&D Output Commercialization in ICT Industry

Objectives: Up to now, many studies on commercialization of R&D output (Research and Development output)(technology) have been conducted. The present study tried to identify the influencing factors in ICT industry and analyzed the relationship of those factors. Methods/Statistical Analysis: To answer two research questions, this study was carried out with the researchers in the research institutes of ICT private firms, which take 75% of total R&D investment in Korea: first, “Is there a hierarchical structure among influencing factors over the success or failure in commercialization of R&D output?” and second, “Do internal and external factors of a company affect the success of commercialization of R&D output?”. Findings: The results of this research demonstrated (i) that internal and external factors of a company play moderating role between business feasibility of R&D output and the success of commercialization and (ii) that external factors of a company have a greater moderating effect than internal factors of a company. Improvements/Applications:When the internal and external factors of a company were sub-divided, it was found that the ability to use technology,supporting system for commercialization, financial status but executives will and interest among the internal factors of a company and macro-economic situations and government’s policy support but legal/institutional arrangement among the external factors of a company affect the success/failure of commercialization of R&D output.

Does trend inflation make a difference?

Although the average inflation rate of developed countries in the postwar period has been greater than zero, much of the extensive literature on monetary policy has employed models that assume zero steady-state inflation. In comparing four estimated medium–scale NK DSGE models with real and nominal frictions, we seek to shed light on the quantitative implications of omitting trend inflation, that is, positive steady–state inflation. We compare certain population characteristics and the IRFs for the four models by applying two loss functions based on a point distance criterion and on a distribution distance criterion, respectively. Finally, we compare the RMSE forecasts and we consider also an indirect inference test. We repeat the analysis for three sub-periods: the Great Inflation, the Great Moderation and the union of the two periods. We do not find strong evidence that a model with trend inflation should always be preferred. During periods of high inflation or when a backward-looking component, indexed to past inflation, is not incorporated in the model, using a model that employs trend inflation can improve the analysis. Nevertheless, where there is uncertainty concerning the change of an inflation regime, such as the recent drop, we suggest adopting a traditional approach that does not use trend inflation.

Monetary Policy, Volatility Risk, and Return Predictability

We document a strong predictive power of macroeconomic volatility series for stock and bond returns before 1980, and a significant decline in this power during the Great Moderation. We explore these findings using an equilibrium model with monetary policy and several shocks with time-varying volatility. The model captures the return predictability observed in pre-1980 data, while matching salient properties of U.S. macroeconomic and financial data. The decline in return predictability is consistent with changes in both monetary policy and shock dynamics. While an increase in the response to inflation in the interest-rate policy rule reduces macroeconomic volatility, more persistent cost-push shocks with reduced variation in volatility explain the decline in return predictability.

The interaction between risk, return-risk trade-off and complexity: Evidence and policy implications for US bank holding companies

We examine two aspects of bank risk with an emphasis on the interaction between them. Moreover, throughout the analysis we differentiate between non-complex and complex banks, the latter of which could be seen as exhibiting a further level of risk. We seek to establish how these risk factors interact with bank specific, market structure and economic variables. Key results indicate that earnings volatility (business risk) increases with market power but decreases with size and output, while risk-taking (managerial risk) decreases with market power and increases with size and output. Furthermore, in examining return per unit of risk, results demonstrate that increased return and risk-taking are associated with bank specific factors and the economic environment, whereas decreased risk taking is associated with market structure. This suggests a management of risk, which increases with factors under bank control or improving external environment but decreases with the interaction of competitors. Overall, the results suggest that policy should focus on liquidity and equity buffers that should operate counter-cyclicality but size and market structure per se are not determining factors for higher risk. In terms of the recent financial crisis, it is likely that the great moderation that proceeded the crisis led to higher risk-taking due to higher economic growth but without the necessary buffers being established.

Four-G Episode and the elevated risks

Complacency and a false perception that markets will correct imbalances during two decades of ‘Great Moderation’ led to ‘Global Imbalances’. The low interest rates and a lack of proper oversight, combined with a perception that housing prices will always move north, brought the sub-prime crisis in the USA and the subsequent ‘Global Financial Crisis’ and European crisis. The Quantitative Easing policy in advanced economies (AE) created an even more permissive global liquidity. The externality affecting emerging markets (EM) took the form of massive capital inflows, first channelled through banks where the global banks-mostly headquartered in Europe-played a significant role and then through capital market with fund managers being the protagonist. The augmented liquidity spurred growth in EM but also elevated the risk of financial instability. Capital flows reversal, slower growth and less benign external conditions have put EM in a quandary. The uncertainty is heightened by a non-synchronised monetary policy in AE (‘Great Divergence’). To the extent that standard policies have become ineffective, and to defend from externality caused by AE's unilateral policy (financial nationalism), it is argued that EM can put a damper on the dangerous component of capital inflows. As part of macroprudential policy, such a measure is equivalent with discouraging risky behaviour to prevent financial instability and worsening income inequality.

Competitive moment matching of a New-Keynesian and an Old-Keynesian model

The paper considers two rival models referring to the new macroeconomic consensus: a standard three-equation model of the New-Keynesian variety versus dynamic adjustments of a business and an inflation climate in an ‘Old-Keynesian’ tradition. Over the two subperiods of the Great Inflation and Great Moderation, both of them are estimated by the method of simulated moments. An innovative feature is here that the moments do not only include the autocovariances up to eight lags of quarterly output, inflation and the interest rate, but optionally also a measure of the raggedness of the three variables. In short, the performance of the Old-Keynesian model is very satisfactory and similar to the New-Keynesian model, or even better. In particular, the Old-Keynesian model is better suited to match the new moments without deteriorating the original second moments too much.

For they know not what they do: an analysis of monetary policy during the Great Moderation

ABSTRACTIn this article, we develop an empirical framework to show the importance of money during the Great Moderation, while accounting for the fact that monetary policy was exclusively conducted through interest rates. We estimate the impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition derived from a structural VAR with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator–based lag selection. The variance decomposition suggests that a substantial component of macroeconomic variation has been driven by shocks to the money market, which were not only unintended by the Federal Reserve, but worse passed unnoticed allowing those shocks to accumulate over time.

A New Approach to the Study of Jobless Recoveries

This article is concerned with the measurement of jobless recoveries and the elements that may explain their emergence. We first introduce a measure that maps the various elements that define a jobless recovery into a single number that we label the jobless recovery depth. We then construct a database of 389 state‐level observations and study the cross‐sectional variations that emerge. We find that jobless recoveries in the United States are not a nation‐wide phenomena, but a local event confined within a cluster of states that expands slowly between 1975 and 2015. We find the state‐level evidence to be consistent with theories that link jobless recoveries to unusually long expansionary periods, less dynamic labor markets, and the advent of the great moderation. The evidence is not consistent with theories that link them to decreases in union power, increases in income inequality, or increases in health care costs.

Cooperation under the Risk of Capture

Why do citizens pay hard-to-enforce local taxes, if public funds are likely to be embezzled? Evidence from behavioral experiments with village residents in Tanzania suggests that local norms of moderation in embezzlement can facilitate voluntary contributions to public goods. In villages where greater moderation in embezzlement can be expected, citizens' contribution preferences are less sensitive to the possibility that their contributions can be embezzled. Voluntary moderation in embezzlement can be explained by several behavioral mechanisms, including in-group solidarity, reciprocity, and norms of trusteeship. The findings have important implications for our understanding of tax compliance and public goods provision in situations where limited enforcement capacity coincides with weak public accountability.

Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.

Oil and Macroeconomic (In)Stability

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing US macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role. (JEL E12, E23, E52, Q35, Q43)