Grazing Capacity Research Articles

Interactive effects of prescribed fire and livestock grazing on Seriphium plumosum in South African sour bushveld

Documented increases in woody plant abundance worldwide can reduce land value and grazing capacity. Throughout many grasslands and savannas in South Africa, Seriphium plumosum, an encroaching woody plant, has been rapidly displacing desirable native species. Cost-effective management techniques are required, in order to prevent encroachment. However, the effects of fire and grazing on S. plumosum are not well understood. We established a full factorial, completely randomised experiment to evaluate interactive effects of fire and livestock grazing on woody plant density and native plant diversity. Sixteen 100 m2 plots were aggregated within an area of rangeland and randomly assigned four treatments, including: i) ungrazed, not burned: ii) ungrazed, burned, iii) grazed, not burned, and iv) grazed, burned. Results indicate fire can reduce S. plumosum height (p < 0.01) and canopy cover (p < 0.01), while simultaneously maintaining the herbaceous community composition (p = 0.33). However, this treatment effect was not significant 24 months after a single treatment. This suggests that although fire holds promise for S. plumosum management, follow-up treatments are necessary to control the shrub. Additional research into the effects of altering components of the fire regime in combination with grazing could provide insight into more effective management.

Information Technology in Ethnological Examination of Investment Projects of Arctic Development

We examine the methodological and practical issues related to the application of information technologies and space-based monitoring in ethnological examination of projects of Arctic industrial development. The necessity and prospects of using these technologies to assess the resource productivity of the territory are illustrated by the example of the project of the extraction of alluvial gold in the basin of the Mokrundya stream of the Srednekolymskii ulus (district) of the Sakha (Yakutia) Republic. In particular, this is necessary for analyzing the distribution of dominant plant communities, determining the phytomass of pasture plants, stocks of wild plants, and reindeer grazing capacity, and for calculating the losses of the indigenous peoples of the North in the influence zone of the project. A geobotanical map of the study area is provided. It is also shown that the use of space-based monitoring in carrying out an ethnological examination of projects and determining the damage caused to the local population as a result of the impact on traditional land use practices (hunting, gathering wild plants, and reindeer husbandry) makes it possible to take an inventory of pasture lands of reindeer husbandry and reduce the cost of these projects in comparison with traditional methods (field surveys of the territory, and aerial imaging surveys). The possibilities of comparing interannual images can also provide insight into the dynamics of changes in the territory under the influence of anthropogenic activity and taking into account climatic transformations.

Socio-Economic Benefits Stemming from Bush Clearing and Restoration Projects Conducted in the D’Nyala Nature Reserve and Shongoane Village, Lephalale, South Africa

This study aimed to investigate the socio-economic benefits stemming from bush clearing and restoration projects conducted in the Lephalale municipality, within the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The study was conducted at two sites: the D’Nyala Nature Reserve and a nearby local village, Shongoane. A qualitative thematic content analysis approach and semi-structured interviews were used to gather data from 14 purposively selected participants between the ages of 22 and 55 (male = 9 and female = 5). The results indicated that the nature reserve benefited from the project via the improved visibility of the landscape features and game viewing, which made the reserve more attractive for tourists and resulted in increased revenue. The costs of buying feed for game could also be curbed since the grazing capacity increased. Since the nature reserve sourced temporary labour from the local village to execute the project, the community benefited in terms of members being able to earn a wage, which led to an improvement in their livelihoods. Another indirect benefit was the morale and behavioural changes observed amongst community members. It was obvious that the socio-economic benefits derived from projects such as these far outweigh the negatives and that there is every reason to institute projects of a similar nature elsewhere.

Monthly variation of production of key range species in central arid rangeland, case study: Saveh-Markazi Province, Iran.

Forage production of rangelands differs during different times of grazing season and in the same month of different years. In range management projects, grazing capacity calculated once during the grazing season, which coincides with the maximum production of rangeland species. This may cause more livestock entry into the rangeland during the grazing season, leading to more degradation. Therefore, it is necessary to measure forage production during the months of grazing season over a few years, based on which the long-term grazing capacity of key range species could be estimated. Production variations of the key species, namely Artemisia sieberi, Salsola laricina, and Stipa hohenackeriana were investigated in Khoshkerood-e-Saveh site in growth and grazing season over the course of three years. For this purpose, the production of each species measured in a one-hectare exclosure with one month intervals until the growth dormancy. After air-drying, forage production was analyzed by SAS software. Based on the results, due to the high variability of monthly and annual precipitation in the region, forage production of key range species had significant differences at P ≤5% level. The maximum and minimum mean production (543 and 388 kg/ha) belonged to 2009 and 2008, respectively. According to the production fluctuation in different years, it is recommended that range management plans account for the long-term average of good production.

Selective grazing behaviour of chironomids on microalgae under pesticide pressure

The herbicide diuron and the insecticide imidacloprid are amongst the most frequently detected pesticides in French rivers, and each is known to affect many aquatic organisms. However, the question of whether and how both pesticides together might induce multi-stress conditions, which could induce indirect effects such as the modification of biological interactions within freshwater microbial communities has not received much attention. This study was undertaken to determine the effect of diuron and imidacloprid alone and in combination on the feeding behaviour of chironomid larvae.An initial experiment measured the impact of the different contamination conditions at environmental concentrations (5 μg L−1 for each pesticide) on the grazing rate of chironomids on three microalgae species, independently. Two diatom species, Gomphonema gracile (two different morphotypes: normal and teratogen) and Planothidium lanceolatum, and one green alga Desmodesmus sp. were offered as food, during 24 h. Chironomids grazing rates varied according to the pesticide and algae species. Indeed, diuron impacted algae more strongly and probably affected their palatability, leading chironomids to increase grazing pressure on less nutritionally interesting algae. Imidacloprid, by targeting insect larvae, increased or inhibited their grazing capacity depending on the food source.In a second experiment (cafeteria design), the food selectivity of chironomids on previous algae was determined under similar contamination conditions during 4 h: under diuron, larvae switched equally between the microalgae and were as mobile as in the control without pesticide. However, imidacloprid and the pesticide mixture condition altered chironomid movements and grazing behaviour.By investigating the impact of an herbicide and an insecticide, alone and in combination, on the responses of food (algae growth rate) and biological (mortality) and behavioural (mobility, food selection) responses of chironomid larvae, this study provided new insights on the direct and indirect effects of pesticide contamination on a simplified trophic web.

The Effect of Land-Use on Herbaceous Production and Grazing Capacity in the Molopo District of the North West Province, South Africa

There are three main types of rangeland management systems in South Africa, namely commercial livestock farming, communal livestock farming and game farming. In commercial farming you normally find one manager/owner with a specific management plan, whilst communal farming is characterized by numerous land users with no specific management plan. The communal areas are also normally overstocked and this overstocking leads to rangeland degradation. In this study the effect of two land-uses (commercial and communal) on herbaceous production and grazing capacity were studied. It was clear from the results that the herbaceous production of the communal rangelands was lower than that of the commercial rangelands. The grazing capacity figures showed that sustainable farming practices were also not possible if the communal rangeland is in a poor condition – this was not even possible in good rainfall years.

MUŞ İLİ KIYIBAŞI KÖYÜ MERASININ FARKLI YÖNEYLERİNİN BOTANİK KOMPOZİSYONUNUN BELİ

This study was carried out in order to determine the botanical composition of a natural rangeland area in Kiyibasi Village, Central District of Mus. In this study; dominant species in rangeland areas, plant-covered area, botanical composition, frequency and grazing capacity were investigated. In the study area, 55 genera belonging to 21 plant families and 66 taxa belonging to these genera were found and 11 of these species were grasses, 10 were legumes and 45 were other family plants. The majority of other family plants were found to be Asteraceae, Lamiaceae, Boraginaceae and Aranunculaceae. While the ratio of rangeland-covered area is 85.8%, the ratio of grasses in the botanical composition is 39.37%, the ratio of legumes is 15.15% and the ratio of other family plants is 33.55%. Grasses were found mostly in the East (46.6%) and in the same group statistically in the North, while other family plants were found in the West (41.2%) and in the same group in the South and East. The most common species in the rangeland were found to be Aegilops umbellulata (50.56%), Minuartia hamata Mattf. (23.75%), Medicago minima L. (13.00%), Stipa lagascae L. (10.75%) and Festuca rubra (10.50%). The grazing capacity of the rangeland was found as 51 Animal Units. As a result of this study, it was concluded that excessive, early and irregular grazing was done in this rangeland as in other rangelands in our country, therefore the yield of rangeland examined was very low, other family plants were dominant in vegetation and therefore the rangeland was weak.

An Emergy-Based Approach to Assess and Valuate Ecosystem Services of Tropical Wetland Pastures in Brazil

Wetland grasslands are important ecosystems for raising beef cattle, because they are highly productive and present forages with high quality. Most of these ecosystems are threatened by overgrazing or by being replaced by exotic pastures. Emergy synthesis approach was used to assess and value the services provided by native pastures wetland under three conservation status and also to compare them to exotic pastures on wetlands. The ecosystem service that was assessed included forage provision for calves production estimated from grazing capacity of cow with calf at the foot. Habitat maintenance to plant diversity and wild herbivores were also evaluated. The results showed that natural wetland pastures with better conservation status provided valuable ecosystem services and are highly renewable. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) showed that regardless of the conservation state of the natural pastures, wet native grasslands were more efficient than wet exotic grasslands. Replacing native pastures by exotic ones may reduce plant diversity and the renewability of the system. The proposed method has a holistic approach to pasture ecosystems and is able to help decision-makers to define sustainable management practices and to subsidise public policies when it comes to payments regarding ecosystem services.

Degrading windward patch reefs and processes influencing composition, mineralogy, and stable-isotope record of peri-reefal sediment, San Salvador Island, Bahamas

Patch reefs and their surrounding skeletal–peloidal–intraclast grainstone facies are very abundant on modern (sub-) tropical carbonate platforms. Compared to the barrier and fringing reef facies, the processes influencing composition, mineralogy, and stable-isotope record of peri-reefal sediment have received much less attention, despite a potentially significant volume of such sediment in many Phanerozoic carbonate platforms. To better understand the evolution and sedimentary record of patch-reef settings, this study investigates the patch-reef biota (scuba diving surveys) and composition (petrography), mineralogy (X-ray diffraction) and stable-isotope record (mass spectrometry) of peri-reefal sediments at East Beach on the northeastern, windward margin of San Salvador Island, the Bahamas. The macroalgae-dominated ecology is assessed, and a decadal decline in stony coral coverage with a shift to more opportunistic, stress-tolerant species is documented. The most common stony corals on these shallow-water (3–5 m) patch reefs are Diploria strigosa, Porites astreoides, and P. porites, and Halimeda lacrimosa dominates among green algae. Peri-reefal sediment is pure carbonate sand composed of roughly equal volumes of aragonite and high-Mg calcite (HMC), with mean MgCO3 content in HMC of 15.2%. The bulk-sediment isotope record shows very limited variation (δ13C between + 2.3‰ and + 3.2‰, and δ18O between − 0.8‰ and − 0.6‰) and this is consistent with similar modern settings. A lack of very fine particles and an abundance of intraclasts suggest that the environment is strongly influenced by bio- and physical erosion. Fast-growing algae have likely reached an abundance beyond the grazing capacity, which has drastically reduced the space for coral settlement and recruitment, and thus has compromised the patch-reef resilience in this part of the Bahamian Archipelago.

Long-Term Declining Trends in Chihuahuan Desert Forage Production in Relation to Precipitation and Ambient Temperature

Rising temperatures and more frequent droughts are posing new challenges to range livestock producers in the southwestern United States and many other parts of the world. We analyzed a 52-yr time series (1967−2018) of precipitation, ambient temperature, and perennial grass production (PGP), as well as 14 yr (2001−2014) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)-derived vegetation phenometrics at a site in the Chihuahuan Desert of New Mexico. PGP was positively associated with December through September precipitation (r = 0.69; P < 0.01) but negatively associated with spring and summer (May−September) maximum average ambient temperature (r = −0.47; P < 0.01). PGP decreased by 43% in the second (1993−2018) compared with the first half (1967−1992) of our study (165 vs. 94 kg dry matter • ha−1; P < 0.01). Precipitation was lower and more erratic in the second half of the time series, decreasing by 18.6% (265.2 ± 15.0 vs. 215.8 ± 15.8 mm; P = 0.01). Conversely, mean maximum and mean ambient temperatures were higher during the 1993−2018 period (max T: 24.5 ± 0.1 vs. 25.3 ± 0.1°C; P < 0.01; mean T:14.4 ± 0.1 vs. 15.3 ± 0.2°C; P < 0.01). MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis showed that growing seasons began and ended later and became shorter (P < 0.05) over the 14 yr analyzed. During this period, increasing maximum spring and summer (May−September) ambient temperatures were associated with decreasing growing season NDVI values (P < 0.01). Over the 52-yr study period, Chihuahuan Desert rangelands at our research site lost 43% of grazing capacity based on PGP. Nine drought yr occurred in the second half of our study compared with 2 yr in the first half. Our research supports predictions by climate scientists that higher temperatures, more frequent droughts, and lower, as well as more erratic, precipitation will adversely impact grazing capacity of rangelands in the southwestern United States.

The Economic Implications of Robinia pseudoacacia L. (black locust) on Agricultural Production in South Africa

ABSTRACTRobinia pseudoacacia L. (black locust) is an invasive deciduous, broad-leaved tree that has the potential to be widely distributed across South Africa. It has invaded all nine South African provinces. The potential economic impact of R. pseudoacacia on agricultural production stems from the tree’s ability to reduce the carrying capacity for livestock. This study estimated the potential economic implications of R. pseudoacacia on agricultural production in South Africa, specifically the livestock sector. R. pseudoacacia’s potential distribution was calculated by using a maximum-entropy predictive habitat model, MaxEnt. The distribution of livestock, based on grazing capacity (ha/large stock unit) in South Africa, was then determined. The potential direct economic impacts were estimated by assessing the impact of the potential distribution of R. pseudoacacia on the carrying capacity for livestock. The results showed that an infestation of R. pseudoacacia has the potential to reduce the total gross margin in the livestock sector by between approximately R135 million and R674 million, dependent on the level of invasion. The potential levels of foregone income and business activity found in this study reaffirm the need to devote resources to develop a viable, economical and effective control.

Habitat selection of free-ranging cattle in productive coniferous forests of south-eastern Norway

Multiple use of communal forests requires informed management to balance divergent interests such as livestock grazing and timber production. In this study, we examined the habitat selection of free-ranging beef cattle in two vegetation-mapped communal forests of Norway’s boreal zone. The two areas were 35 km apart, and they mainly differed regarding cattle stocking density, with one being below and the other above the livestock grazing capacity of the area. In total, 78 cows were fitted with global positioning system (GPS) collars during the summers 2015 to 2017. The collars were scheduled to take positions and measure activity at 5 and 10 min intervals. We applied generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) to describe the cows’ selection of vegetation types, forest cutting classes, topographical features and distance to roads with resource selection functions (RSF), by comparing use with availability. The most selected vegetation types were wide-spread summer farm meadows, followed by the dominant bilberry spruce forest. In productive forest, the cows selected for clearcuts younger than 15 years and used thinning and post-thinning stands less than expected. In accordance with the Ideal free distribution hypothesis, the cows were more likely to use low productive habitats in the area with high compared to the one with low stocking density. The preference for young forest stands was strongest when grazing as compared to resting and walking. During grazing, the cows also preferred pre-thinning stands older than 15 years and inclined patches, but avoided north-facing slopes. Preference for south-facing slopes was strongest when resting and for forest roads when traveling.To reduce the pressure of cattle in forest regeneration stands, we suggest limiting stocking densities to the grazing capacity of forest pastures, using vegetation and forest maps as information to guide the distribution of cattle, and maintaining or even expanding the existing meadows of the summer farms.

Machine learning and multi-sensor based modelling of woody vegetation in the Molopo Area, South Africa

Bush encroachment is a highly relevant environmental issue in South African savannas, influencing ecological processes as well as the grazing capacity of the land. However the drivers of bush encroachment are not yet fully revealed which can partly be attributed to the problem that large-scale data of woody vegetation cover are missing. Using a multi-scale and a multi-sensor approach, this study aimed at providing the status of woody vegetation cover for the Molopo Area in South Africa. Training data for woody vegetation was derived from unsupervised classification of high-resolution aerial image tiles. To derive spatially continuous estimates of fractional woody cover for the entire Molopo Area, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data were applied in a machine learning based modelling approach. Therefore, a database of training samples was generated by aggregating the classified aerial image tiles to the geometry of the Sentinel data. A Random Forest algorithm with a forward feature variable selection was then trained to relate the spectral and radar information to fractional woody cover. The model was applied to make spatial predictions of fractional woody cover at 10 m resolution for the entire Molopo Area for the year 2016. Spatial cross-validation revealed a prediction error in fractional cover of 12%. The derived model and cover data show the potential for upcoming time series analysis of Sentinel-based woody cover estimates which can serve as a basis to bring new insights into the drivers of bush encroachment.

景观生态视角下草地生态质量的空间差异及其影响因素——以内蒙古四子王旗为例

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 景观生态视角下草地生态质量的空间差异及其影响因素——以内蒙古四子王旗为例 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201809091928 作者: 作者单位: 内蒙古农业大学,内蒙古农业大学,内蒙古大学,内蒙古农业大学,内蒙古农业大学 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（31861143001，31660108） Analysis of spatial differentiation of grassland ecological quality and its affecting factors based on landscape ecology perspective: A case study of Siziwang Banner Author: Affiliation: Inner Mongolia Agriculture University,Inner Mongolia Agriculture University,Inner Mongolia University,Inner Mongolia Agriculture University,Inner Mongolia Agriculture University Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:科学评价北方荒漠草原的生态质量，有助于草地景观的生态修复与荒漠化防治。以内蒙古四子王旗为例，采用景观生态视角，通过构建生态质量评价体系，结合综合指数法和自然间断法，对研究区内130个行政村域的草地生态质量进行综合评价及类别划定；通过引入地理加权回归模型并对比最小二乘回归模型，评估外源压力对草地生态质量的影响。结果表明：（1）2016年四子王旗村域草地生态质量的指数变化幅度为0.003-0.765，呈现出北高南低的区域差异；在空间分布上，高高集聚、低低集聚和低高集聚的空间特征反映出村域草地生态质量的非均衡特征及空间依赖；（2）对比模型估计参数，地理加权回归模型具有解释草地生态质量空间异质性和处理数据非平稳性的优势，预测精度优于最小二乘回归模型；（3）6种变量对草地生态质量的回归系数表明，经济压力和环境压力的影响效应明显高于人口压力和资源压力。与草地生态质量变化呈正相关的因素依次为：生态用地比、人均耕地面积和草地载畜量，而与至城镇中心距离、劳动人口比和人均GDP则依次呈现出负相关关系。研究结果可为草地生态保护与治理提供参考。 Abstract:Scientific evaluation of ecological quality of desert steppe in North China is helpful for ecological restoration and desertification control.Taking Siziwang Banner as an example, this paper adopts the landscape ecological perspective, constructs the ecological quality evaluation system, and combines the comprehensive index method to research grassland ecological quality. In this paper, grassland ecological quality of desert steppe in 130 administrative villages is comprehensively evaluated and classified with the natural breaking method. After comparing the ordinary least square regression model, the effect of exogenous pressure on grassland ecological quality was evaluated by introducing the geographical weighted regression model. The main results were as follows:(1) The grassland ecological quality indexes ranged from 0.003 to 0.765 in the village area of Siziwang Banner, showing the regional difference in north high to south low in 2016. The spatial characteristics of High-High agglomeration, Low-Low agglomeration and Low-High agglomeration reflect the disequilibrium characteristics and spatial dependence.(2) The GWR model has the advantage of explaining spatial heterogeneity and processing data nonstationarity of grassland ecological quality. Compared with the estimated parameters, the prediction accuracy of the GWR model is higher than the OLS model. (3) The regression coefficient of six variables on grassland ecological quality showed that the effect of economic pressure and environmental pressure was obviously higher than that of population pressure and resource pressure.(4)The positive correlation factors of the change of grassland ecological quality are as follows:ecological land ratio, per capital amount of farmland and grassland grazing capacity. The distance from the nearest town, labor to force ratio and per capital GDP showed a negative correlation in turn. The results can be used as reference to grassland ecological protection and management. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Impact of forage introduction on cattle grazing practices and crop–livestock systems: a case study in an upland village in northern Laos

Lao smallholders are experiencing livestock grazing land constraints due to resettlement, increasing cattle numbers and commercial cash crop plantations. In this paper we describe changes in cattle grazing systems in an upland village in northern Laos, including the role of forage crops and their effects on cattle productivity. We interviewed 92 Hmong and Khmu households about their migration history, cattle grazing practices, cattle productivity and other livelihood activities. In addition, we measured the heart girths of 231 cattle. We found that the traditional free-range cattle grazing has diverged into three distinct systems incorporating fields fenced to different degrees. Although none of the three systems increased cattle body size, the forage pasture and swidden-farming system successfully increased the grazing capacity compared with other systems. Thus, this method appeared to be the most suitable for Hmong smallholders to manage crop and cattle production in the context of land constraints. Efforts should be made to examine how the newly implemented systems could attenuate villager livelihood and pre-emptively address the problems associated with degrading fallow land.

Estimating Grazing Capacity for Desert Rangelands of Wadi Hederbah in Southeastern Egypt

Estimating Grazing Capacity for Desert Rangelands of Wadi Hederbah in Southeastern Egypt

English

The study was conducted in Alice, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The objective of this study was to evaluate farmers’ perceptions on the impact of Vachellia karroo encroachment on livestock production and vegetation. Forty farmers (62% females and 38% males) were interviewed using semi-structured questionnaires. The results showed that goats and cattle were mainly kept for cash sales and sheep for wool production. Shortage of forage and lack of water points were the main constraints to livestock production, especially during the dry season. Cattle and sheep owners perceived that V. karroo encroachment had a negative impact on grazer production, as it reduces the grazing capacity of the veld. Goat owners viewed V. karroo as an acceptable tree to goats and its abundance favours browsers as compared to grazers. Although farmers have different views concerning the impact of V. karroo encroachment. The mean of livestock composition showed that goats (11.6±1.3) are more favoured by the veld condition compared to cattle (4.9± 1.1) and sheep (2.6±0.7). This study concludes that V. karroo had a negative impact on grazers’ production and sheep and cattle owners observed V. karroo encroachment as a form of land degradation. Pastoralists recommended that veld burning and bush clearing can be used to mitigate encroachment. Key words: Encroachment, degradation, livestock composition, Vachellia karroo.

Assessing the success of experimental rehabilitation on a coastal mineral sands mine in Namaqualand, South Africa

The success of different rehabilitation treatments following surface mining on the arid west coast of South Africa was assessed. Treatments consisting of one or a combination of topsoil addition, plant translocation and seeding were applied to experimental rehabilitation sites in 2001, while the treatment of another site in 2008 combined all three techniques. Vegetation and species cover, species richness, diversity and evenness, and grazing capacity of rehabilitation sites were sampled during winter 2009 and summer 2010, and compared with a reference site. All rehabilitated sites achieved the objective to attain a minimum grazing capacity of 20 ha per small stock unit. Rehabilitation trials were successful in establishing a vegetation cover, but were unable to return species richness and diversity to reference levels and did not resemble the reference site in species composition. Common species in reference sites were absent or only occurred in low numbers. No treatment outperformed the others and further experimentation is needed to determine the most suitable combination. It is recommended that rehabilitation should be done in multiple stages in future to improve seedling survival and to return species that are unable to establish in the adverse conditions present at the onset of rehabilitation.

Seasonal forecasts for the Limpopo Province in estimating deviations from grazing capacity

Application of seasonal forecasts in agriculture has significant potential and realized utility. Other sectors that may also benefit from using seasonal forecasts include (but are not limited to) health, hydrology, water, and energy. This paper shows that seasonal forecast model data, satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT), dry matter productivity (DMP) data (proxy of grass biomass) along with other sets of data are effectively used to estimate grazing capacity (GC) over a 12-year test period (1998/1999–2009/2010) in Limpopo Province. GC comprises a vital consideration in agricultural activities, particularly for a province in South Africa like Limpopo, due to its varying climate. The Limpopo Province capitalizes on subsistence farming, including livestock and crop production. Grazing should thus be regulated in order to conserve grass, shrubs, and trees, thereby ensuring sustainability of rangelands. In a statistical downscaling model, the predictor is the 850 geopotential height fields of a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation (CGCM) over Southern Africa to predict seasonal DMP values. This model shows that the mid-summer rainfall totals are important predictors for the November through April (NDJFMA) DMP (as well as grazing capacity) growing season. Forecast verification is conducted using the relative operating characteristics (ROC) and reliability diagrams. The CGCM model shows skill in discriminating high and low DMP (GC) seasons in the Limpopo Province, as well as reliability in the probabilistic forecasts. This paper demonstrates the development of a tailored forecast, an avenue that should be explored in enhancing relevance of forecasts in agricultural production.

Does ‘Forage-Livestock Balance’ policy impact ecological efficiency of grasslands in China?

Grassland has critically important ecological efficiency as well as economic values. While overgrazing and climate change have been reported to lead to the deterioration of grassland ecosystem functions and ecological efficiency, the implementation of a rational policy may mitigate such effects. The ‘Forage-Livestock Balance’ policy refers to balancing the relationship between forage productivity and grazing capacity of grasslands, and has been implemented in northern grassland areas in China since the year of 2000. In this study, we firstly examined spatio-temporal changes in the ecological efficiency of grass-based livestock husbandry in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia, China, using the Super-efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis method, and then analyzed the effects of the ‘Forage-Livestock Balance’ policy on the ecological efficiency. The Difference-in-Difference (DiD) approach was applied to investigate the differences of ecological efficiency in county-level outcomes between prior to and after the implementation of policy. The results showed that the county-level ecological efficiency in Hulunbuir was low in the year of 2000, thereafter it displayed an increasing trend from year of 2000–2015, though no significant differences were occurred in each of counties of Hulunbuir. Among the counties, Yakeshi county and Zhalantun county had the highest ecological efficiency, and Chen County had the lowest. The DiD analysis suggested that the ‘Forage-Livestock Balance’ policy had a remarkable effect on the ecological efficiency of grass-based livestock husbandry. Compared to traditional pasture management, the policy has greatly improved the ecological efficiency of grasslands. Our research results provide a useful reference for the sustainable development of grassland livestock management, which is an important countermeasure to improve the efficiency of grassland livestock husbandry, alleviate the pressure on grassland ecosystems, and ensure the living standards of residents in the context of climate change and the risk of recurring disasters.