Government Popularity Research Articles

Chinese Financing and Domestic Politics in Sri Lanka—Parallel Evolution across Mid-20th vs 21st Century Episodes of Bilateral Interactions

Abstract: This article studies the parallel evolution of Sri Lanka’s domestic politics and China’s foreign financing in Sri Lanka’s post-independence era through four lenses, namely, political opposition, political gains, economic structure, and institutions. We focus on the bilateral relationship prior to Sri Lanka’s economic liberalization and the aftermath of the middle-income transition and add three major findings to the literature. Firstly, Chinese economic engagements continue to have substantial political opposition in Sri Lanka. But the nature of such opposition evolved from ideology-based to sovereignty-based anti-China sentiments, which heavily correlate with elections. Economic relations with China have continued to evolve as political gains, which helped maintain government popularity in the short-to-medium term and exceeded the costs inflicted by political opposition. Secondly, the nature of the bilateral economic relationship has become more complex, moving from being purely government-to-government to involving multiple actors: Chinese policy banks, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and the private sector. Thirdly, despite differences, Sri Lanka’s governments have utilized economic relations with China for short-term political gains and to avoid structural reforms, especially in the run-up to Sri Lanka’s sovereign default and unprecedented economic crisis in 2022. We conclude that China’s approach to ongoing debt restructuring will affect domestic politics around China’s engagements and affect how the bilateral economic relationship evolves.

Government popularity in the UK during the COVID‐19 pandemic

AbstractThis study analyses how government popularity was shaped in the UK during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Using daily data for the Conservative party popularity rate, we find that their popularity was strongly dominated by factors related to the pandemic, more so by the political cases linked to its management and the measures that the government undertook than by the direct health impact of the coronavirus. The government stringency measures became more harmful for government popularity over time, especially when the pandemic metrics calmed down. The economy played a very marginal role in shaping government popularity during that period.

Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Surfing the credit wave: Government popularity as driver of credit cycles

This paper analyses the interaction between credit and political cycles, arguing that short-termist governments will seek to ride and amplify credit cycles for political gains. Specifically, it tests for the existence of political credit cycles not only before elections but throughout the term when executives seek to bolster support in periods of popularity drops. Compiling a unique database on government approval from opinion polls in 57 countries starting in 1980 allows to test this accountability channel empirically. There is strong evidence that drops in government popularity are systematically associated with larger future private credit cycles. The existence of such political cycles appears to mainly target credit to households, increases the likelihood of bad credit booms, and is robust to multiple checks for confounding factors. This paper does not find similar cycles in public borrowing. In addition, a higher level of government debt and a decrease in fiscal spending appears to reduce the likelihood of such political cycles in private credit, which adds a new perspective on the interaction between private debt and fiscal policy.

The impact of security issues on government evaluation: evidence from the Arab World

ABSTRACT The literature on government popularity focuses on security and prosperity as two key factors that shape government evaluation. While a recent wave of studies explores the impact of these factors on public support in non-democratic countries, the Arab World is one region that has received relatively little scholarly attention. Beginning with the Arab Uprisings, ongoing national crises have created myriad security challenges for governments and led to greater political instability. Since under these conditions citizens tend to be more uncertain about the political environment, it is unclear how those who are concerned about security challenges can decide whether to reward or punish the incumbent government. This study proposes that individuals may use information about the economy to make a decision concerning the security-popularity linkage. Using individual-level data from 13 countries in the Arab World from 2010 to 2019, we find that citizens are more likely to reward or punish the government for security issues (external and internal) if their judgement is aligned with their economic sentiment.

Is presidential popularity a threat or encouragement for investors?

The economic situation of the post-epidemic is facing huge downward risks, and the government actively introduces stimulus measures to improve the current economic situation. In this crisis, the president’s role in asset price gradually deepened. Hence, we utilise a wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach to uncover the complex and unstable relationships between presidential popularity and the currency performance of asset price. We find the significant negative impact of the government popularity on the stock market and oil prices, especially in the medium quantile. This suggests that political stalemates will not always be suitable for financial markets. Instead, this will hinder the investment because it expresses the uncertainty of the direction. On the contrary, the U.S. dollar presents a highly positive relationship with the government popularity. Investors can avoid the trust risk of the president through the adjustment of the asset portfolio. The result is consistent with the asset pricing model, suggesting that investor sentiments significantly influence the performance of assets. Meanwhile, the duration of impacts caused by short-term shock will eventually be repaired for a long time. The approval ratings will harm the investor sentiment in the short term, but the market will digest this over time.

Does sports success increase government support? Voter (ir)rationality in a multiparty context

A growing number of studies discuss the impact of non-political factors on the political success of incumbents. Theoretically, this literature addresses core ideas about electoral accountability and voter rationality. Scholars have explored factors such as shark attacks, weather, natural disasters, and sports results. So far, the evidence has been inconclusive and almost exclusively from majoritarian contexts, where government accountability is easy for voters to assign. We contribute with an analysis of whether nationally important sports success, such as Olympic gold medals, affect support for coalition governments in a multiparty context. We use monthly polling from Finland for a 28-year period from Jan 1994 to Dec 2021, which we combine with data on sports success. Our analysis shows that nationally important sports success has no impact on government popularity. The finding holds while controlling for traditional drivers of government popularity and across different operationalizations of government support and sports success. With this finding, the study joins several previous analyses, which have been supportive of voter rationality.

Who Is Credible? Government Popularity and the Catalytic Effect of IMF Lending

In this paper, I explain variations in international investors’ reactions to International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs. Investors react favorably if a borrowing government is credibly committed to implementing essential IMF conditionality. Instead of engaging complex information processing about economic reform, however, investors rely on a heuristic device to assess the borrower’s domestic political conditions. I argue that a borrowing government’s popularity is an important cue for investors to assess the prospect of an IMF program. Investors associate higher government popularity with better implementation of the program and react more favorably to more popular borrowers. Using annual data from up to 52 emerging market economies from 1998 to 2017, I find robust statistical evidence supporting these claims: an IMF program alone does not restore investor confidence. Rather, an IMF program carried out by a strong government does. My findings have important implications for the study of global financial governance and credible commitment.

Building Food-Based Destination Image in Meishan City: Inspirations from Korean Kimchi

Meishan is a city in Sichuan, China. There is a traditional local food called Dongpo Kimchi. Compared with other kimchi, its production and sales are at the leading level in China, but its brand awareness in the international market is far less than that of Korean kimchi, which has a high international reputation and effectively drives the development of the Korean tourism industry. Amid the growing popularity of food tourism, many national and local governments have been developing food tourism-centred destination management. Meishan City attaches great importance to the tourism industry and is trying to build a food-based destination image. Employing qualitative research methods, this article analyses media information and public statistics related to the marketing of Korean kimchi, and conducts in-depth interviews with experts. The research conclusions are expected to provide inspirations for Meishan City to promote Dongpo Kimchi and build a food-based tourist destination image.

Food tourism in Korea

Amid the growing popularity of food tourism, many national and local governments have been developing food tourism-centered destination management. However, few studies have examined whether such strategies have been effective. This study analyzes the behavioral and psychological patterns of food tourists at the demand side, with the focus on the period from 2015 to 2018, when the Korean government initiated food tourism-intensive strategies on the supply side (i.e., ‘K-Food’). This study has found that the psychological and behavioral patterns of food tourists display some changes, both positive and negative, that follow changes in the government’s policy strategies over the last 4 years. The study discusses the implications of this finding for food tourism strategies, particularly in terms of the importance of cultural attributes embedded in food tourism and the availability and accessibility of diverse local food tourism resources.

The Effect of Austerity Packages on Government Popularity During the Great Recession

AbstractDuring the Great Recession, governments across the continent implemented austerity policies. A large literature claims that such policies are surprisingly popular and have few electoral costs. This article revisits this question by studying the popularity of governments during the economic crisis. The authors assemble a pooled time-series data set for monthly support for ruling parties from fifteen European countries and treat austerity packages as intervention variables to the underlying popularity series. Using time-series analysis, this permits the careful tracking of the impact of austerity packages over time. The main empirical contributions are twofold. First, the study shows that, on average, austerity packages hurt incumbent parties in opinion polls. Secondly, it demonstrates that the magnitude of this electoral punishment is contingent on the economic and political context: in instances of rising unemployment, the involvement of external creditors and high protest intensity, the cumulative impact of austerity on government popularity becomes considerable.

Voters' wrath? Policy change and government popularity

AbstractRecent research suggests that voters are bad at responding in a meaningful way to policy events when deciding for whom to vote. Voters rely on so‐called “blind retrospection”, punishing governments for events outside politicians' control. However, another core aspect of the blind retrospection perspective has not been put to the test: are voters unable to respond to policy decisions that clearly are under the politicians' control? We construct a unique large‐N dataset on legislative changes in German old age pensions and unemployment protection to see if cutbacks and expansions lead to lower/higher support for the government. Our data are exceptionally fine‐grained and allow us to track the policy‐vote link for 416 months from 1977 to 2013 with a total of 329,167 respondents. We find substantial support for the notion that voters react in a meaningful way to policy changes, but also that they can be distracted by high‐profile, extreme events.

Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide

Economic shocks and the cost of ruling: evidence from Italy

ABSTRACTDo voters punish governments more severely during international economic crises or do they discount exogenous shocks as they recognize the government’s limited “room of manoeuvre”? The current literature provides conflicting answers to this question. This study argues that in such contexts citizens’ economic perceptions are less likely to predict their sanctioning behavior but that, nonetheless, governments experience a higher cost of ruling. We show that in the paradigmatic case of Italy, government popularity during the Great Recession, while being hardly explained by economic evaluations, suffers a stronger decline as a function of time in office. We account for this increased cost of ruling by economic policy debates and other political events, such as cabinet crises and large-scale scandals.

Turnout and voting behaviour in constitutional referendums: a regional analysis of the Italian case

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates regional disparities of both turnout and voting behaviour in constitutional referendums. The analysis is undertaken at the NUTS-3 level and it considers the three constitutional referendums held in Italy in the period 2001–2016. It finds that turnout was lower in provinces with higher unemployment rates and where citizens had a stronger affiliation to opposition parties. These factors, along with level of government popularity, were important drivers of referendum results, especially in 2006 and 2016 when the referendums were rejected. In addition, while the three referendums implied different effects for rich and poor regions, mainly due to decentralization of powers, the local voting patterns did not reflect this. Overall, these findings suggest that the merit of the constitutional reforms played little part in explaining the outcome of the referendums.

Declining Poverty and Inequality in Turkey: The Effect of Social Assistance and Home Ownership

ABSTRACTSocial assistance has become prominent in combating poverty in developing countries, and has also contributed to the popularity and election success of governments implementing it. In this paper, I employ household surveys and investigate the effect of social assistance on poverty and income inequality in Turkey. I also review the recent literature on poverty, as well as different components of social protection spending: education, health, pensions and housing. In the empirical analysis, I show that pensions still constitute the bulk of public transfers to households. Moreover, home ownership ameliorates poverty and inequality for Turkey. Despite its modest amounts, social assistance reduces poverty and its marginal effect on income inequality is larger than other income sources. These findings suggest that increases in social assistance budgets should accompany other policy measures in combating poverty and inequality.

Rumors and Refugees: How Government-Created Information Vacuums Undermine Effective Crisis Management

Although more than 800,000 displaced people arrived in Greece by sea in 2015, fewer than 5 percent applied for asylum in this first country of arrival. Instead, they either traveled northward informally or remained in Greece in legal limbo. The resultant chaotic conditions deprived many refugees of the benefits of asylum and formal relocation procedures, and also reduced the Greek government's popularity among natives. We argue that governments, regional and international organizations, and aid groups can undermine compliance with their own policies by mishandling information dissemination. Common crisis-management tools—such as frequent policy changes, information dissemination limits, and ad-hoc policy implementation—can easily backfire. Information mismanagement can lead people to develop deep distrust in government and aid organizations, and instead turn to informal brokers like smugglers. To assess our theory, we draw on over 80 discussions with migrants and refugees in Greece, on 25 semistructured interviews with aid workers and government officials, and on weekly rumor correction newsletters produced by the nongovernmental organization Internews. We conclude that governments must prioritize effective communication and policy transparency, especially in crisis contexts.

Can Reshuffles Improve Government Popularity?

Can Reshuffles Improve Government Popularity?

The politics of continuity and collusion in Zanzibar: political reconciliation and the establishment of the Government of National Unity

AbstractThe popularity of unity governments to settle both internal political divisions and outright conflict has grown in the last 20 years. However, more often than not unity governments fail to mitigate the political dynamics baked into the political economies and suffer from being insufficiently anchored in local society. The Government of National Unity (GNU) in Zanzibar, formed in 2010 as the culmination of the ‘maridhiano’ political reconciliation process and following numerous attempts at reconciliation led to initial successes, is a case in point. Zanzibar's GNU turned out to be ‘position’ rather than ‘power’ sharing, constitutionalised through a hybrid format of the politics of continuity and collusion. As such the position sharing system broke down when voters in the 2015 election sought neither continuity nor collusion, but transformational change of governance. This was in turn blocked by veto actors in favour of continuity, resulting in the collapse and discontinuation of the GNU in Zanzibar.

Asymmetric evaluations: Government popularity and economic performance in the United Kingdom

This article introduces a new method for testing asymmetric, reference-point-dependent behaviour in economic voting. Specifically, prospect theory suggests that people exhibit loss aversion, which crucially depends on a reference point. In practice, this reference point is often unknown. This article proposes a procedure to estimate reference points from the data using threshold models, and then test whether above- and below reference point effects are equivalent, or whether negative changes have stronger effects — as predicted by prospect theory. This method is applied to the relationship between economic performance and government popularity in the United Kingdom, using monthly time series data over the last thirty years. The results show that there is asymmetric, reference-point-dependent behaviour, most notably in the relationship between unemployment and government popularity.