Turnout and voting behaviour in constitutional referendums: a regional analysis of the Italian case

Alfredo Del Monte,Sara Moccia,Luca Pennacchio

doi:10.1080/21681376.2019.1680314

Alfredo Del Monte, Sara Moccia + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2019.1680314

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Abstract

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates regional disparities of both turnout and voting behaviour in constitutional referendums. The analysis is undertaken at the NUTS-3 level and it considers the three constitutional referendums held in Italy in the period 2001–2016. It finds that turnout was lower in provinces with higher unemployment rates and where citizens had a stronger affiliation to opposition parties. These factors, along with level of government popularity, were important drivers of referendum results, especially in 2006 and 2016 when the referendums were rejected. In addition, while the three referendums implied different effects for rich and poor regions, mainly due to decentralization of powers, the local voting patterns did not reflect this. Overall, these findings suggest that the merit of the constitutional reforms played little part in explaining the outcome of the referendums.

Highlights

Referendums are considered a form of direct democracy, which give citizens the opportunity to participate actively in issues and strengthen their involvement in politics
We considered the three constitutional referendums held in Italy and used econometrics to identify the determinants of their turnout and outcome
Our estimates suggest that turnout was affected mainly by unemployment and political factors, which were statistically significant at the usual levels in all regressions

Summary

Introduction

Referendums are considered a form of direct democracy, which give citizens the opportunity to participate actively in issues and strengthen their involvement in politics. The use of referendums is increasing around the world (Boyd, 2010). Referendums have been called on different topics, including territorial, constitutional, moral and other issues. The use of referendums to settle major constitutional changes has sharply increased over time (Tierney, 2009), there have been very few studies on this type of referendum. A large number of studies have examined turnout and voting behaviour in general elections and other types of referendums, but little attention has been paid to constitutional referendums. General elections and referendums are different in three main ways, which may affect the voting decisions of citizens (Laycock, 2013).

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