You have accessJournal of UrologyCME1 Apr 2023MP77-06 THE PROJECTED SHORT AND LONG-TERM ANTICIPATION OF THE PROSTATE CANCER POPULATION IN KOREA BASED ON PSA TESTING AND SOCIAL-AGING TREND DURING THE LAST DECADES Young Hwii Ko, Ki Hak Moon, Hee Chang Jung, Phil Hyun Song, Jae Young Choi, Yeong Uk Kim, Jae Youn Jang, and Jong Gyun Ha Young Hwii KoYoung Hwii Ko More articles by this author , Ki Hak MoonKi Hak Moon More articles by this author , Hee Chang JungHee Chang Jung More articles by this author , Phil Hyun SongPhil Hyun Song More articles by this author , Jae Young ChoiJae Young Choi More articles by this author , Yeong Uk KimYeong Uk Kim More articles by this author , Jae Youn JangJae Youn Jang More articles by this author , and Jong Gyun HaJong Gyun Ha More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000003351.06AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: The current serum prostate-specific antigen testing incidence in males aged over 40 years in Korea was only 7.26% national-widely (2016), and most of the detected prostate cancer (PCa) were driven by the elderly (aged over 60 years occupies over 90% of PCa in 2019) or the super-elderly (over aged over 75 years occupied 1/3 of cases) population. Based on these trends, we anticipated the short and long-term PCa incidence national-widely. METHODS: A regression equation model for the estimated incidence of PCa was extracted based on two key pieces of information; 1) the expected age distribution available from the national statistics, projected with the reported incidence of PCa divided by ’50s, ’60s, ’70s, and over 80’s from the last two decades (2006-2018), 2) the reported increasing incidence of PSA across the nation for the last decades (2006-2016) in each age subgroup. RESULTS: The incidence of PCa increased about threefold (4,425 in 2006 to 15,043 in 2016). PCa incidences increased with age (p<0.001). The average exposure rate for the PSA has increased by 1.08% by each year. Based on the officially reported expected life expectancy, 28,822 new PCa cases in 2030 (when PSA incidence was expected to be 14.4%) and 40,478 cases in 2040 were extracted from the current equation projected (when PSA incidence was expected to be 26.4%). If public PSA screening has been routinely performed only in the ‘60s and ‘70s in 2030, the number of cases would be 37,503 in 2030 (PSA incidence was expected to be 23.06%) and 43,719 in 2040 (Figure 1). CONCLUSIONS: With the accelerating trend of social aging, the incidence of PCa was anticipated to be increased almost two-fold by 2030. With the aid of a national-wide screening program only for the limited age subgroups, significantly enhanced detection could be expected. Source of Funding: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT). (No. 2022R1A2C1009074) © 2023 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 209Issue Supplement 4April 2023Page: e1103 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2023 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Young Hwii Ko More articles by this author Ki Hak Moon More articles by this author Hee Chang Jung More articles by this author Phil Hyun Song More articles by this author Jae Young Choi More articles by this author Yeong Uk Kim More articles by this author Jae Youn Jang More articles by this author Jong Gyun Ha More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...