Government Environmental Policies Research Articles

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Economic Area, 1985-2022 and Analysis of Influencing Factors

This research employs GIS and remote sensing technology, along with time-series Land cover data, to examine the evolving patterns of various land use categories (such as forest land, cultivated land, and impervious surfaces) within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results indicate that the predominant spatial configuration of land use in this region follows a sequence of "forest land-cultivated land-impervious land." Notably, the key transformation observed involves the conversion of cultivated land to impervious surfaces, resulting in a cumulative expansion of impervious areas by 3,346,985 hectares between 1985 and 2022. Moreover, the level of spatial integration among land use types in the Greater Bay Area is progressively standardizing, with notable advancements in scientific, technological, economic, and transportation sectors leading to a high degree of synergy. The system as a whole demonstrates effective coordination and operational efficiency. The methodology section outlines the data sources and analytical techniques employed, encompassing the utilization of the land use transfer matrix, individual land use degree assessment, and spatial coupling function model. Through these methodologies, the study identifies urban economic development as the primary driver behind the proliferation of impervious surfaces, offering valuable insights to inform regional development strategies and environmental governance policies.

Do Chinese Residents’ Perceptions of Air Pollution Affect Their Pro-Environmental Behaviors: The Moderating Role of Environmental Knowledge

Air pollution has become an important environmental and public health problem in China; improving air quality has become one of the most important tasks of the Chinese central government in recent years. In all aspects of environmental governance, the public’s pro-environmental behavior is crucial to comprehensively improve air quality. This study used data provided by the 2021 China General Social Survey (CGSS) to explore the relationship between air pollution perception, environmental knowledge, and pro-environmental behavior. The results of the study indicated that: (1) Residents’ subjective perception of air pollution has a significant positive impact on residents’ pro-environmental behaviors. The more serious the air pollution in the surrounding area is, the more likely residents are to adopt more pro-environmental behaviors; (2) Environmental knowledge also has a positive impact on residents’ pro-environmental behaviors and individuals with higher environmental knowledge are more likely to adopt more pro-environment behaviors; and (3) Environmental knowledge plays a positive regulating role in the relationship between air pollution perception and pro-environmental behavior. Individuals with higher environmental knowledge are more willing to engage in more pro-environmental behaviors when they perceive air pollution. To promote the residents’ pro-environmental behaviors, we should further strengthen the education of environmental knowledge and strengthen the disclosure of environmental information. This study provides valuable insights for China to formulate environmental governance policies, enrich the research on pro-environmental behavior to a certain extent, and provide lessons for other developing countries and high-polluting countries to find environmental governance methods.

Research on the driving factors and impact mechanisms of green new quality productive forces in high-tech retail enterprises under China's Dual Carbon Goals

In recent years, the issue of global climate change has become increasingly severe, prompting countries worldwide to intensify their control over carbon emissions to achieve sustainable development goals. As a crucial component of the modern economy, high-tech retail enterprises significantly influence the entire industry's sustainable development through technological innovations and business models. This study focuses on Chinese high-tech retail enterprises, employing a theoretical framework grounded in Resource Dependency Theory and the dialectics of productive forces and relations from a Marxist political economy perspective, supported by Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM). The study identifies the degree of green technology application, corporate environmental policy response strategies, and consumer environmental awareness and demand as mediating variables. The aim is to deeply explore the impact mechanisms driving green and new-quality productivity in Chinese high-tech retail enterprises and to provide an in-depth understanding of the sustainable development of their green and new-quality productivity. The findings indicate that external resources such as policy support, technological innovation, and market demand significantly impact the green productivity of high-tech retail enterprises. Government environmental policies and subsidy measures provide institutional safeguards and resource support for enterprises; technological innovation drives the application and efficiency improvement of green technologies; and market demand for environmentally friendly products promotes the green transformation of enterprises. The study explores how enterprises can integrate different external resources to maximize the benefits of green productivity, including formulating policy response strategies, strengthening technological innovation and R&D investment, seizing market opportunities, and establishing cooperative relationships. These findings offer necessary theoretical support and practical insights into the resource dependency strategies and the mechanisms impacting the development of green productivity in high-tech retail enterprises. This study provides valuable theoretical and practical references for high-tech retail enterprises in promoting the development of green and new-quality productivity. It offers valuable suggestions and guidance for enterprise decision-making and policy formulation. By revealing the dialectical interaction between external resources and internal production relations, this study provides a systematic path analysis and strategic recommendations for achieving the Dual Carbon goals.

Does environmental regulation truly enhance corporate green environmental investment? Evidence from the supervision of independent directors in listed companies.

With the increasingly prominent environmental issues in China, the government and citizens alike have intensified their focus on corporate investments in green environmental protection. Nevertheless, as government regulations become more stringent, there is substantial debate over whether environmental regulatory policies can consistently encourage listed companies to increase green environmental investments. Simultaneously, independent board supervision plays a crucial role in promoting the compliance and sustainability of listed companies regarding environmental protection. This paper selected a sample of 246 Chinese listed companies from 2010 to 2019, and used a fixed effects model to examine the impact of environmental regulation on the environmental investment of listed companies in China. Moreover, we used a mediation effect model to analyze the role of independent director supervision in influencing the relationship between environmental regulation and companies' green environmental investment. Additionally, we discuss the heterogeneous impact of environmental regulations on corporate environmental investments. Our findings are as follows: first, during the sample period, the tightening of environmental regulations significantly reduces the growth of environmental investment among the studied firms. As government environmental regulatory policies gradually intensify, the negative impact on environmental investments by listed companies becomes increasingly evident. Second, independent directors help alleviate the adverse impacts of environmental regulations on the environmental investment levels of listed companies. This suggests that the inclusion of independent directors in board governance plays a role in assessing government environmental regulatory policies and overseeing corporate decisions related to environmental investment. Lastly, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that environmental regulation significantly negatively impacts the environmental investment of listed companies in pollution-intensive industries and those located in the western regions. Furthermore, environmental regulatory policies impose greater constraints on the environmental investments of small-sized listed companies compared to their large-sized counterparts.

Evaluating Environmental Sustainability: The Role of Agriculture and Renewable Energy in South Korea

This study investigates the impacts of agriculture and renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions in South Korea from 1980 to 2023, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for environmental sustainability. Utilizing bootstrap ARDL, FMOLS, and CCR methodologies, the analysis reveals that traditional agricultural practices significantly increase CO2 emissions, underscoring the urgent need for sustainable agricultural reforms. Conversely, renewable energy consumption effectively reduces CO2 emissions, thereby supporting the nation’s transition towards sustainable energy sources. Additionally, control variables such as industrial activity, urbanization, energy prices, and government environmental policies exhibit significant effects on CO2 emissions. Specifically, industrial activity and urbanization contribute to increased emissions, whereas higher energy prices and stringent environmental policies are associated with reduced emissions. These findings highlight the necessity for targeted agricultural and energy sector reforms to achieve a balance between economic growth and environmental preservation. Robustness tests confirm the stability of these relationships, providing a reliable foundation for policymakers to develop effective strategies for a sustainable future in South Korea.

Power and interests in environmental policy processes: the Svalbard case

ABSTRACT Climate and environmental changes pose tremendous challenges to ecosystems worldwide. While this underscores the need for more significant conservation efforts, these measures often clash with human activities. Participation and transparency may be key to reducing conflict and ensuring high-quality decisions, but facilitating such processes has proven difficult with many interests and stakeholders involved. This often leads to disputes over environmental policies but may also reflect a more profound debate about the definition of wilderness and who it is for. This article, therefore, explores what interests prevail and why in environmental policy processes and how this relates to perceptions of wilderness. Drawing on Lukes’ (2021) three-dimensional view of power and the case of the political process of new environmental regulations in the Arctic Archipelago of Svalbard, Norway, the author examines how the power to frame the public discourse about wilderness influences the issues and actors included in the discussion (see also McConnell and Hart 2019, 647). The insights provided are relevant not only to local stakeholders on Svalbard navigating the policy process but also to practitioners and academics elsewhere working in environmental governance, protected areas, and environmental policy and legislation.

Impact and Spatial Effect of Government Environmental Policy on Forestry Eco-Efficiency—Examining China’s National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Policy

Can government environmental policy harmonize environmental protection with economic output? We explore this issue from the perspective of forestry eco-efficiency, using China’s National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Policy (NECP), an environmental policy promulgated by the government of China, as the subject of this study. The study introduces forestry eco-efficiency as an indicator to assess the balance between economic development in the forestry sector and environmental conservation. The indicator, grounded in sustainable development theory, employs a super-efficiency SBM model that includes undesirable outputs to evaluate efficiency. Additionally, we empirically analyze the impact of NECP on forestry eco-efficiency by using the difference-in-difference (DID) model with provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020. Ultimately, we analyze the effects of spatial spillover by employing the spatial Durbin model (SDM). Our study yields the following conclusions. (1) In this paper, through hotspot clustering analysis, forestry eco-efficiency in each province is categorized into three categories: effective, semi-effective and ineffective. Our findings suggest that China’s average forestry eco-efficiency falls into the ineffective category, highlighting the need to optimize resource allocation within the sector. (2) NECP significantly enhances forestry eco-efficiency, with robust findings across various stability tests. Thus, implementing government environmental policies can have a multiplier effect on forestry, i.e., it can synergize its economic development with environmental protection. (3) In provinces with a strong ecological foundation, the NECP significantly enhances forestry eco-efficiency. However, in other provinces, the improvement is only moderate. Furthermore, while the NECP has a substantial positive impact in the eastern region, it has yet to show a discernible effect in other regions. (4) The positive impacts of NECP implementation on forestry eco-efficiency have spatial spillover effects due to demonstration effects and comparative advantages.

Carbon emission trading scheme and corporate labor cost: Evidence from China

In the low-carbon economy era, the impacts of government environmental policies on the corporate labor force have received increasing attention. This study empirically examines the effects of the carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) on corporate labor costs using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies in the industrial sector from 2007 to 2020. Empirical analysis shows that the ETS significantly increases corporate labor costs, and this finding is further supported by various robustness tests. Further analysis reveals that the ETS primarily affects labor costs by promoting the upgrading of the human capital structure, and the impact of the ETS on labor costs is more significant in enterprises in China's eastern region, those with higher labor intensity, and state-owned enterprises. Additionally, the effects of the ETS on corporate labor costs manifest mainly in the increase in the labor costs of ordinary employees. We contribute to the existing literature by enhancing the current understanding of the policy implications of the ETS and shedding light on the dynamics of corporate labor costs under the low-carbon economy.

Research on the Game Behavior of Environmental Protection Strategies Between Government and Enterprises

In recent years, the global environment has been deteriorating. To achieve win-win environmental protection and economic development, the Chinese government has issued various environmental governance policies. However, as an important part of the economy and society, enterprises often ignore the impact on the environment while realizing economic development. Therefore, how the government and enterprises develop appropriate environmental protection strategies to achieve parallel environmental protection and development has become the main problem faced at present. Based on the method theory and practical application of game theory, experts in related fields have studied this problem deeply. According to the different research subjects, this paper starts from five different research objects, such as the mutual influence between government and enterprises under environmental governance, the regulation between governments at all levels, the evolution game of government-enterprise-media, the evolution game of government-enterprise-public, and the game of government-enterprise-media-public, introduces the analysis of the decisions of government and enterprises based on game theory, put forward advice to consider the influence of other factors and explore the connection between various factors, to provide detailed reference for scientific governance environment and realize economic sustainable development.

Navigating Environmental Stewardship: A Review of Construction Industry Practices in Developed Countries

Due to rapid urbanization, the construction industry has expanded significantly to meet human needs. Controlling environmental impacts in the construction sector has become a major global issue. The implementation of environmental management practices in the construction sector has contributed to protecting the environment through various management methods. This review aims to provide an overview of environmental management practices in the construction industry in developed countries, including a review of the types of environmental management practices and government policies for adopting these practices. The current status of these practices in developed countries is discussed, as well as the barriers and prospects for environmental management practices. Challenges include behavior adoption, lack of material standardization, monitoring difficulties, and inefficient formation of temporary organizations. Cooperation among construction parties presents coordination issues, exacerbating uneven cost distribution and neglect of environmental impacts. Adoption of ISO 14001 Environmental Management Systems faces hurdles such as lack of management involvement, third-party interference, and lack of guidelines. Initiatives like Green Star struggle due to poor enforcement and organizational issues, hindering sustainable development. To accomplish the goal of sustainable development, additional environmental factors have been taken into account and discussed.

Study on consumers' motivation to buy green food based on meta-analysis

IntroductionThere exists a noticeable gap between consumers' willingness to purchase green food and their actual purchase behavior. However, the awareness of green development is a crucial factor influencing this purchase behavior and acts as an internal driving force promoting green consumption. Consumers' green development awareness is shaped by various psychological motivations, including environmental concern, health consciousness, knowledge, norms, and price considerations. The existing literature often focuses on specific regions or groups, lacking comprehensive cross-regional and multivariate evaluations, and frequently overlooks the potential impact of moderating variables such as economic development level, product type, and behavior type.MethodsTo clarify the overall effect of each motivational factor on green food purchase behavior, this study conducted a meta-analysis. We selected eight causal variables and three moderating variables that significantly influence consumers' green food purchase behavior. The analysis included 132 independent effect values from 45 research papers.ResultsThe meta-analysis revealed that: Consumers' green food purchase behavior is significantly positively correlated with eight motivational factors: environmental awareness, health awareness, green attitude, green knowledge, subjective norms, price awareness, perceived behavior control, and perceived usefulness. Economic development level, product type, and behavior type significantly affect consumers' green food purchase behavior. The impact of motivational factors on actual purchase behavior is weaker than on purchase intention, suggesting that interventions should focus on converting purchase intentions into actual purchase behavior. The findings indicate that environmental responsibility, government policies, and marketing strategies can influence consumers' psychological motives, guiding them toward more responsible consumption choices.DiscussionEnhancing consumers' environmental and health awareness is essential, and policy support and marketing strategies can effectively promote green food consumption. These insights underscore the importance of targeted interventions to bridge the gap between green purchase intention and behavior.

Environmental Blindspots: Identification and Mitigation using Technologies, Education, and Policies

Objectives:“Environmental Blindspots” are newly defined as a type of social problem within the realm of various environmental pollution and climate issues, wherein they are pushed down in priority due to factors such as corporate profit, consumer preferences, and government regulations, consequently remaining unresolved. This ultimately leads citizens to experience a sense of guilt. Despite the significant influence they wield on the welfare of current and future generations, various environmental social issues characterized by environmental blindspots (such as micro-hazardous substances like microplastics and environmental hormones) fail to become major considerations in societal decision-making. Consequently, they are not actively discussed within the social community. This absence of social consensus on these issues reflects the current situation. As a result, citizens repeatedly make choices that do not prioritize environmental values due to a perception of powerlessness stemming from the absence of environmentally friendly options, the belief that the issue is too immense to tackle individually, and lack of knowledge about specific actions to take for environmental problem-solving, among other factors. In this process, they experience involuntary and deliberate emotions of guilt. Since environmental blindspots are issues collectively experienced by the societal community comprising citizens, businesses, and government, solutions must also be derived collectively through collective thinking. This review has endeavored to incorporate such efforts.Methods:In this review, to develop a more effective interdisciplinary research methodology for addressing the previously mentioned environmental social issues, ten interdisciplinary researchers from the Environmental Engineering and Social Sciences fields at the center for convergence research (SEBIS) collaborated, leveraging their respective expertise to document literature survey results. Firstly, they reported on the environmental behavior, toxicity, distribution, and regulatory status of micro-hazardous substances, namely (micro)plastics and volatile organic compounds, which are the research subjects of the Environmental Blindspot Research Center. Secondly, they compiled relevant treatment technologies. Subsequently, they described the socio-structural causes of environmental blindspots and various solutions to environmental social issues through social science methodologies.Results and Discussion:To address the environmental blindspots, a key environmental social issue, it is necessary to advance various environmental technologies alongside responsible production by businesses and the enhancement of citizen environmental awareness. It is crucial for the government to institutionalize policies in the public domain to achieve this. Understanding the structural roles of citizens, businesses, and government is essential. It requires ethical consumer awareness and active participation, public campaigns and education, as well as effective government environmental policies to incentivize environmental friendly technological innovations by companies.Conclusion:In this review, the issue of environmental blindspots as an environmental social issue is being addressed comprehensively for the first time. Through this, we aim to establish an effective communication and cooperation system among social entities to explore solutions to environmental blindspots, and to propagate this ability to address social issues to future academic generations.

Untying the nexus between environmental information disclosure, green finance, and green technological innovation: a multi-analytical (SEM-ANN) approach

Environmental information disclosure (EID) is integral to government environmental policies and corporate social responsibilities. The current research presents a theoretical model that analyses the connection between EID, green finance, and green technological innovation (GTI). The required data was collected through a structured questionnaire, and final data analysis was performed using 230 valid responses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) combined with artificial neural networks (ANN) is used in the present framework to analyze constructs’ linear and non-linear relationships. The empirical analysis found that government EID significantly improved the value of green securities (GS) and green credit (GC), aided considerably by enterprises’ openness about environmental practices. Green securities and GC are also used, which has a good impact on the development of GTI. Green financing is critical when linking environmental disclosure with green technologies in businesses. The results reveal the mediating role of GC and GS in the relationship between the two aspects of EIDs (EEID and GEID) and GTI, providing a new perspective on how EID influences GTI through financial mechanisms. The findings contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the intricate interplay between EID, green finance, and GTI, providing valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and investors working toward sustainable development.

Fog and haze control and enterprise green total factor productivity - evidence from China

Advancing fog and haze control and improving environmental quality levels reflect the Chinese government's institutional efforts to establish a green economic system. This paper examines the relationship between fog and haze control and enterprise green total factor productivity. The results show that fog and haze control can promote enterprises to improve green total factor productivity, and this effect is more pronounced in state-owned enterprises and enterprises in the central region. The government should advance environmental governance policies, induce enterprises to innovate in related green technologies, and achieve a win-win for both the environment and economic development.

Sustainable or not sustainable pension fund: This is the question. The case of environmental social governance policies in the Italian pension system

The Environmental Social Governance (ESG) framework is a fundamental issue in every field of economics. Integrating ESG factors into business models, strategies, and policies is the new frontier for financial intermediaries as European policymakers, regulators, and investors increasingly require this. Also, Pension Funds face the daunting task of generating sufficient returns to provide adequate and sustainable retirement incomes for their members in the context of an aging population. This current study aims to determine the relationship between Pension Funds’ performance and ESG attention in asset allocation strategies and how relevant the presence of gender diversity is in the board to promote this attention. The obtained results can contribute to formulating a deeper view of ESG practices, revealing significant aspects that influence sustainability action in the Pension Funds Italian market and providing recommendations for European policymakers and practitioners for the future.

The role of nature's contributions to people in sustaining international trade of agricultural products

Abstract Nature's contributions to people (NCP) are essential for the production and trade of agricultural, forestry and fishery commodities. Often, there is a spatial disconnect between consumers and the natural systems where the commodities are produced. Traded agricultural products are therefore dependent on nature and NCP in their region of origin. The dependencies of agricultural products on NCP are, however, insufficiently recognised by consumers and are rarely considered in global environmental governance and trade policies along value chains. Here, we synthesise studies highlighting dependencies of agricultural products on NCP in their origin locations to identify opportunities and challenges in quantifying their contribution in sustaining trade flows. We suggest three methodological steps for quantifying NCP dependencies in international agricultural trade: spatial mapping of NCP supply and demand, linking NCP to agricultural trade flows, and tracing trade flows. Each methodological step requires further development and harmonisation to enable a complete accounting of how international agricultural trade depends on NCP. Given the lack of knowledge and data on how NCP support agricultural trade, social and environmental trade‐offs of natural resource management are currently hard to quantify. Quantifying the role of NCP dependencies of traded agricultural products can support their sustainable management, contribute to supply chain accountability and serve as input to sustainable natural resource governance and foster responsibility and equity in supply chains. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Key Factors Shaping Green Logistics in Thailand’s Auto Industry: An Application of Structural Equation Modeling

Background: Environmental responsibility is a critical focus in business and production. International partners have urged Thai businesses to adhere to global standards in environmental and social accountability. Green logistics management focuses on minimizing costs and boosting competitive efficiency in the industrial sector, while also promoting environmental protection. This study investigates the factors influencing green logistics in the motor vehicle industry. Methods: A self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection from 1638 participants. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling were employed to identify causal links impacting green logistics effectiveness. Results: Findings indicate that government and organizational environmental policies, a company’s financial ability to implement green initiatives, commitment to eco-friendly investment, and public environmental attitudes significantly and directly affect the efficiency of green logistics. Conclusions: This research provides valuable insights for car manufacturers into key factors in green logistics management. These insights can help in developing strategic plans to achieve environmental sustainability in the context of future market competition.

The impact of market-based environmental regulation on corporate ESG performance: A quasi-natural experiment based on China's carbon emission trading scheme

At present, there are few studies exploring the impact of market-based environmental regulation on ESG performance based on the perspective of carbon emission trading scheme (CETS). This paper aims to supplement this research field through empirical analysis. Taking Shanghai-Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022 as the research object, this paper studies the impact of CETS, a market-based environmental regulation tool, on the ESG performance of enterprises by constructing a time-varying DID model and examines the mediating roles of green technology innovation, agency cost and analyst attention. The results show that the implementation of CETS can significantly boost ESG performance, and green technology innovation, agency cost, and analyst attention play a partial intermediary role between the two, while the mediating effects of green total factor productivity and green total factor energy efficiency are not significant. In terms of heterogeneity analysis, the study shows that CETS implementation has a more substantial promotion effect on ESG performance in non-state-owned enterprises, non-politically connected enterprises and non-high-tech enterprises. In this paper, the robustness test was carried out through PSM-DID, placebo test and replacement of explained variables, and the test results further supported the hypothesis in this paper. This study enriched the research on the impact of market-based environmental regulation on ESG from the perspective of CETS. It provided enlightenment for enterprises to improve ESG performance to a strategic level, improve the level of green technology innovation, and the government to implement differentiated environmental governance policies.

The impact of sustainable consumption behaviour on natural resource conservation in China: A cross-sectional analysis

This investigation assesses the impact of sustainable consumption behaviour (SCB) on natural resource conservation (NRC) in China, exploring the moderating roles of government environmental policy (GEP), environmental consciousness, and alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Through a cross-sectional analysis, data were collected via random sampling from the Chinese populace between 2020 and 2021. A novel analytical model was utilized, enriching the NRC discourse by empirically substantiating the hypothesized relationships. Findings reveal a substantial positive influence of SCB on NRC, with GEP, environmental consciousness, and SDGs acting as critical moderators. The outcomes suggest imperative policy implications for the Chinese authorities to enhance environmental policies in harmony with the SDGs and to elevate environmental consciousness among citizens. By amalgamating SCB, GEP, environmental consciousness, and SDGs into an integrated framework, this examination contributes a novel perspective on their collective impact on NRC within China's dynamic environmental milieu. It highlights the pressing need for policy reform and practice modification to align with both national and global environmental sustainability imperatives. This study serves as a call to action for the implementation of strategic environmental policies that not only safeguard natural resources but also foster a sustainable relationship between consumers and the environment.

Standing and Probabilistic Injury

Standing to sue often turns on questions of probability. For example, public law plaintiffs must show that they are likely to be affected by allegedly unlawful government surveillance or environmental policies, and consumers may wish to sue private defendants over false credit reporting or data breaches that may or may not cause them financial or reputational harm in the future. This Article offers a framework for resolving a wide range of these “probabilistic standing” issues. Our core claim is that courts and commentators ask too much of standing doctrine in probabilistic cases. First, scholars sometimes seek a unified theory of probabilistic standing to cover categories of cases that ask distinct questions, such as cases involving who is subject to a challenged action, on the one hand, and those involving whether a person subject to such an action is sufficiently likely to be harmed, on the other. Second, courts should not ask how probable elements of a plaintiff’s case must be in order to support standing, but rather who should decide whether a given probability is sufficient. Judges and parties struggle in litigation to assess the actual probability of occurrences, and Article III of the Constitution provides no standard for how probable an injury must be to support a lawsuit. Third, any doctrinal probability threshold for standing would encounter a related problem, which is that the probability of an injury depends significantly on how that injury is framed. Which harms “count” for standing is thus a vital question in assessing the probability of injury, but Article III is an unlikely place to look for answers. Within certain constraints, courts should look instead to the underlying substantive law to define the relevant injuries for standing purposes. Finally, we contend that many of the concerns associated with probabilistic claims are better addressed through the law of remedies and prudential elements of the timing doctrines (mootness and ripeness) than through the constitutional law of standing.