Government Deficits Research Articles

Implication of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on the Twin-Evil of Macroeconomic Phenomena: “With the Focus on Nigeria”

Purpose of the Study: This study was designed to analyze the implication of Macroeconomic fundamentals on twin-evil of Macroeconomic phenomena: “with the focus on Nigeria.’’ Methodology: The study Utilized annual time-series data on exogenous variables (Government Deficit Spending, GDS; Official exchange rate, OEXCHR; Monetary policy rate, MPR) to capture Macroeconomic fundamentals. While, Unemployment rate, UNEMPLR; Inflation rate, INFLR and Consumer price index, CPI were used as a summation of Macroeconomic phenomena to capture Misery index. The data on variables used in the study were sourced from Nigerian federal ministry of finance; Central Bank of Nigeria; and World Bank data bank between 1991and 2022 respectively. The study employed econometric techniques of ordinary least square and Two-stage least to analyze its data. Findings: The study of Ordinary Least Square revealed that Government deficit spending and official exchange rate significantly eradicate misery index in a positive manner. Meanwhile, monetary policy rate insignificantly eradicate misery index in a negative manner. There was also a further revelation from the findings of two-stage least square that government deficit spending and official exchange rate exert concerted significant strength to eradicate misery from every citizen of Nigeria within the periods under study.. Meanwhile, the result found that it was insignificantly weak for monetary policy rate (MPR) to minimize misery index from every Nigerian citizen within the periods under study. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: The study concluded that the authority should maintain a sound policy that will oversee money borrowed for critical projects and use it to create employment opportunity for Nigerian citizenry, ensure exchange rate is kept within a certain band that will reduce high cost of goods and services in the economy that we are currently facing and jettison the idea of increasing monetary policy rate, since this displayed a negative sign to help reducing misery index of the Nigerian populace during the periods of study.

Evaluating the Impact of NPA Dynamics in Selected Indian Banks: A Fifteen-Year Comparative Study

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact on bank profitability, capital structure, and financial stability and trend analysis regarding non-performing assets [NPAs] performance in selected Indian public sector banks vis-à-vis that observed in private sector ones during fifteen years. Methodology: For this research, a quantitative methodological approach has been used, and for quantifiable data, annual reports from four select banks, which include two public sector banks [The Bank of Baroda, The State Bank Of India] as well as two private sector banks [ICICI Bank Ltd., Nainital bank], are analyzed for the period ranging 2008-09 to 2022-23. The analysis calculates Compound Annual Growth Rates [CAGR] and t-tests, Panel Regression models to determine the relationship between GNPA additions, reductions, and write-offs with closing balances. Findings: A major increase in GNPAs is observed in the research among Scheduled Commercial Banks. The public sector banks found an even larger dynamism in NPA growth rates than private sector banks, manifesting the fluctuation to a high degree. The study identifies GNPA addition, reduction, and write-off as key determinants of their respective closing balances. Even though there have been many policy initiatives, the public sector banks [PSBs] remain at a higher level of NPAs due to governance deficits and political interference. The effectiveness of these predictors on GNPA is also confirmed using the Random Effect Model, thus requiring improved risk management practices. Originality: The content of this article is guaranteed to be original.

Voting behaviour in AMNOG benefit assessments

The study examines the voting behaviour in the G-BA in AMNOG benefit assessments since 2011, showing on the one hand that most decisions (93%) are passed unanimously. On the other hand, it is particularly striking that the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds (GKV-SV) voted in favour of a lower classification of added benefit in 100% of the dissenting resolutions compared to the other benches. The result empirically illustrates a procedural conflict of interest at the GKV-SV and underpins the structural criticism regarding the governance deficits of the G-BA. Even in the unanimously adopted procedures, these deficits can lead to a systematic negative distortion of the benefit assessment. This cannot be verified due to a lack of documentation at the G-BA. Overall, the unity of the GKV-SV as regulator, referee and player in the AMNOG procedure should be scrutinised more closely. This also applies in particular to the evaluation of the more recent statutory interventions (guard rails and combination discounts), which are highly susceptible to conflicts of interest.

We don’t have government here: banditry and the polycrisis of governance in northwest Nigeria

ABSTRACT This study provides evidence on the evolution and dynamics of banditry and how they are enabled through interlocking factors of governance deficits in northwest Nigeria. It relies on first-hand perspectives gathered covertly and directly from the bandits, defectors, residents, and victims. The paper provides a significant contribution to knowledge by analysing the real and potential impacts of banditry. It links causation to the effects, and shows how the continuous interaction of these factors generates a cycle of polycrisis in northwest Nigeria. The study yields insights for theory and offers direction on the policy imperatives for combatting banditry. The paper concludes that the governance framework to eliminate, neutralise, and disrupt banditry must embrace four strategies − the peacebuilding approach, security sector reform, development, and strategic social support to victims.

Review of the economic aspect of Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games

To estimate whether holding the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games could promote notable economic growth within a country or trigger the situation of government deficit to some extent, this article will first introduce two economic models, the Solow Growth Model and the Endogenous Growth Model, which are widely used to solve economic problems, then applicate these two models to analysis this issue respectively by comparing to the precise data released by official institutions. Data from some authorities, the Beijing Organizing Committee for the 2022 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, and the National Bureau of Statistics of China were used to measure some variables affecting a nation’s economy, such as GDP per capita, TFP, capital, employment, and so on. Finally, through comparing relative variables in each model to determine two results about if Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic Games is positive for economic growth. Inevitably, each kind of model may have limitations that are not able to be adaptable to all sorts of situations, thus, in the last part of this article, some loopholes in analyzing this issue will be shown.

The paradox of growing technical capacities with low global governance: a review of Voluntary National Reviews’ SDG health-related indicators

BackgroundThis study delves into the States’ accountability for health-related Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicators from 2016 to 2020. An analysis of Voluntary National Reviews (VNR) is employed as an instrument to scrutinize the alignment of States’ indicators with the global indicator framework, shedding light on global health governance within the context of the 2030 Agenda and States’ strategic prioritization. A curation of 60 health-related indicators from 195 VNRs, produced during the aforementioned period, is organized into thematic groups.ResultsOur results highlight a concerning discrepancy in the reporting frequency of various health-related themes. The findings reveal a paradoxical coexistence characterized by the concurrent strengthening and diminution of the global health governance articulated in the Agenda’s global health governance. This manifests in the increased utilization and consistency of health-related indicators over the study years, coupled with an emphasis on infectious diseases and child and maternal health indicators. Conversely, a discernible governance decline is evidenced by the inadequate representation of health-related indicators in VNRs, notably within the domains of universal health coverage and health system indicators. Furthermore, High-Income States exhibit diminished accountability.ConclusionsThe VNRs unveil a paradox wherein burgeoning technical capacity coexists with governance deficits, a phenomenon attributable to both statistical capabilities and political preferences. The prevalent use of proxy indicators in VNRs oversimplifies the presentation of official indicators, thereby compromising the aspirational goal of pioneering statistical innovations for measuring intricate issues in the SDGs. In light of our conceptualization of the 2030 Agenda’s global health as a regime complex governance, we advocate for comprehensive investigations into each health regime cluster. This approach aims to unravel disputes, discern patterns, and elucidate States’ preferences concerning specific thematic areas. Functioning as an accountability mechanism for the Agenda’s governance, VNRs underscore States’ adaptability and short-term learning capabilities, offering valuable insights for identifying harmful goal prioritization. The discretionary nature of indicator selection by States in the VNRs, enabled by the Agenda’s proposition of a contextual adaptation of the SDGs and a blind eye to the guideline’s request to review all SDG indicators, highlights a critical flaw in the VNR as an accountability mechanism.

The complex system of climate change security and the ripple effect of water–food–socioeconomic nexus

The effects of climate change are recognized globally. This study hypothesizes that climate change impacts are a complex system that creates a ripple effect on water security, food security, and economic security. Ultimately, those domains simultaneously exacerbate climate change effects and produce national security concerns. The study’s framework uses a transdisciplinary team’s quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluate the challenges and possible solutions to climate change security on the Water–Food–Socioeconomic Nexus. Iraq has been taken as a case study highlighting the deficits in management and governance. The dynamic of the ripple effect shows the interventions for each sector’s water-food-socioeconomic and security that collectively impact upon each other over time. The radical shift in the political infrastructure after 2003 from a centralized to a decentralized one without proper preparation is one of the root causes of the governance and management anarchy. About 228 state and non-state actors are involved in decision-making, leaving it fragile and unsustainable. Only 1% of the national budget is allocated to both the Ministry of Water Resources and the Ministry of Agriculture, which leaves no capacity to mitigate the risk of climate change impact.

Assessing the Environmental, Economic, and Route Optimization Impacts of Implementing a Green Bus System in Urban Areas

The proliferation of e-bus has swept the globe. Many countries have begun the transformation of electric buses. Electric buses are embraced worldwide for their environmental and low-cost advantages. This work will help local governments establish a complete e-bus system.The first question mainly addresses the ecological impact that would be brought by the impact. In this work, the Ecological Impact Quantification Model (EIQM) is developed to address gaseous pollution including Greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, pollutants nitric oxide and PM2.5. The ecological effect enhancement with e-bus system is presented, and especially, the gaseous pollution caused by electricity production is approximated by the Monte Carlo simulation method. As a result, this team figures out that with the development of e-bus system, the average CO2 emission per person decreases, having a reduction of 11391g at first, and 14039g after five years.The second question mainly addresses the financial problem that the government needs to face. In this work, the Quantification of Financial Impact Model (QFIM) is developed. This team utilizes the differential equation to obtain the exact varying rate of diesel fuel and electricity fee, and finally determined the possible range of the government deficit. By synthesizing these data, this team discovers that the government could start reducing its deficit after 8 years of the transformation from diesel bus to e-bus, having deficit from $-88,412,180 to $-64,182,722.The third question addresses the 10-year plan for the selected city and 2 additional cities. This team develops Optimized Deployment Model based on Greedy Algorithm (ODGA) to optimize the transformation plan over 10 years of existing bus routes and the number of e-bus to be constructed per year. Monetary and time utility is considered and Greedy Algorithm is introduced to find out the best travelling route for e-buses. This team successfully figures out the best transformation plan of travelling routes and number of e-bus to be constructed per year to maximize the efficiency, including 5-min interval departure time and 867 buses are required to run the proposed route in Chicago. Finally, the team writes a piece of letter to Chicago Transit Authority and proposes the 10-year plan of e-bus system construction to guarantee the steady implementation of e-bus.

Artificial intelligence, the common good, and the democratic deficit in AI governance

Artificial intelligence, the common good, and the democratic deficit in AI governance

Muslims and Christians in Nigeria: A Proposed Solution to Interreligious Violence

This article discusses religious violence in Nigeria, particularly the conflict between Islam and Christianity that has been ongoing for about a century. Various factors contribute to this violence, including socio-economic, political, and governance deficits, as well as disputes over religious beliefs or identities. Additionally, the ethnic, religious, linguistic, and cultural diversity in Nigerian society plays a role in escalating the violence. This situation poses a threat to Nigeria's stability and territorial integrity, and the high number of casualties also impacts the country's economy. Numerous primary causes of religious violence in Nigeria include the agitation for the implementation of Sharia law, imbalances in the political and economic systems, extreme interpretations of religion, and external influences. To resolve this conflict, the author suggests several measures that can be implemented by religious leaders. First, they should strive to integrate religious institutions and faith-based organizations. Second, they must avoid conflicts among religious figures and institutions. Third, they should facilitate formal dialogue. Fourth, promote interfaith discussions. Fifth, establish local groups aimed at understanding each other among followers of different religions. And finally, organize conferences, seminars, and open discussions. Conferences and seminars can be held at national and international levels, while open discussions can be broadcasted on national television to reach various layers of Nigerian society, especially vulnerable individuals who could be used or targeted in interfaith conflicts.

Global AI governance: barriers and pathways forward

Abstract Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), combined with a proliferation in use, have led to a newfound emphasis on strengthening the global governance of AI. In this article, we assess the prospects for stronger global AI governance and consider potential pathways forward. We map the nascent landscape of international regimes focused on AI governance and conclude that a governance deficit remains due to the inadequacy of existing initiatives, gaps in the landscape and difficulties reaching agreement over more appropriate mechanisms. First-order cooperation problems stemming from interstate competition and second-order cooperation problems from dysfunctional international institutions problematize overcoming current deficiencies in global AI governance. In light of these cooperation problems, we evaluate two pathways for strengthening global AI governance: (a) developing new centralized international AI institution(s); and (b) strengthening coordination between, and capacities of, existing institutions. We argue that strengthening the existing weak ‘regime complex’ of international institutions is the more politically legitimate and viable path forward. Improving coordination between, and capacities of, existing international institutions governing AI would support inclusive and mutually reinforcing policy change that can mitigate a range of risks associated with these technologies. As first steps for strengthening the weak AI regime complex, we recommend that the OECD is foregrounded as a centre of expert AI knowledge so that it can facilitate peer pressure among states and harmonization of policies. We also encourage scrutiny of different nodes in the regime complex to ensure that they are fulfilling appropriate functions based on their democratic mandates.

Post-Covid 19 Nigeria and the 2023 General Elections

The experience of the Nigerian masses during the 2019 Corona Virus period and the October 2020 youth protest popularly called ENDSARS yet again reflected that the political class cared less for the welfare of the ordinary Nigerians. The governance deficit within the government circle was brought to the fore. This paper examined democratic engagement in Nigeria’s post-COVID-19 general elections, 2023 to interrogate how their experiences in the two events have impacted their response, especially regarding their voting pattern and other fronts of participation. The paper adopted the participatory democratic theory, which espouses that democracy is a model that allows the citizens to make political decisions. It employed both primary and secondary sources of information to gather the required data. The primary data was analysed using simple percentages. The major argument is that bad leadership and failure to be accountable to the citizens led to the protests and civil disturbances that shaped the voting pattern. Democracy gains more credibility when the leaders are accountable to the governed. The lack of it, on the other hand, breeds frustration and rebellion among the populace, hence, the emergence of violence and protest of different forms exemplified by the #EndSars protest in October 2020. It also argued that participation of the electorates in the 2023 general elections tilted toward candidates across party lines rather than strictly political parties’ candidates. That is, voters considered voting for candidates, not minding their political party affiliations, in their choice of leaders. It concluded that rather than having core party politics, candidate politics was the order of the day. It recommended inter alia that poverty should be reduced to its barest minimum to curtail vote buying and selling.

Understanding the Nigerian Domestic Debt

The portion of a country's overall public debt that is owed to domestic lenders is known as its internal or domestic debt. The public debt profile of a nation is comprised of its external and domestic debt stock. This article provides insights into the various components and major holders of the country's domestic debt. The Country’s domestic debt profile, which is currently on the rise, has led to numerous challenges in the economy such as debt overhang, higher debt servicing costs, unstable currency rates, and crowding out impacts on the private sector, among others. Therefore, measures have been recommended to curtail the level of increasing borrowings. The goal of setting up a distinct public debt management agency such as the Debt Management Office (DMO) by the government was to continuously accomplish the benefits of cautiously sourcing financing to cover for government deficits at reasonable rates and with manageable medium to long-term risks.

COUNTERFEIT DRUGS SET ALARM BELLS RINGING: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF DRUG POLICIES

The strategy of price liberalisation and privatisation had been implemented in Sudan over the last decade, and has had a positive result on government deficit. The investment law approved recently has good statements and rules on the above strategy in particular to pharmacy regulations. Under the pressure of the new privatisation policy, the government introduced radical changes in the pharmacy regulations. To improve the effectiveness of the public pharmacy, resources should be switched towards areas of need, reducing inequalities and promoting better health conditions. Medicines are financed either through cost sharing or full private. The role of the private services is significant. A review of reform of financing medicines in Sudan is given in this communication. Also, it highlights the current drug supply system in the public sector, which is currently responsibility of the Central Medical Supplies Public Corporation (CMS). In Sudan, the researchers did not identify any rigorous evaluations or quantitative studies about the impact of drug regulations on the quality of medicines and how to protect public health against counterfeit or low quality medicines, although it is practically possible. However, the regulations must be continually evaluated to ensure the public health is protected against by marketing high quality medicines rather than commercial interests, and the drug companies are held accountable for their conduct.

ASSESSMENT OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS IN INDIAN STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES

SOEs are a crucial part of India's economic landscape, playing a vital role in various sectors. The governance frameworks within these entities are multifaceted, encompassing legislative provisions, regulatory directives, and oversight mechanisms. The Companies Act of 2013 lays down foundational principles, supplemented by guidelines from regulatory bodies like SEBI and DPE. Compliance with these frameworks is crucial for ensuring transparency, accountability, and ethical conduct within SOEs. However, Indian SOEs face challenges such as government interference in board decisions, lack of board autonomy, non-compliance with regulatory requirements, and the need to balance diverse stakeholder interests. These challenges often stem from the unique ownership structures of SOEs and their role in serving broader public policy objectives. Addressing these governance deficits requires concerted efforts from stakeholders, including the government, regulatory bodies, boards of directors, and management teams. Enhancing board independence, ensuring compliance with regulatory norms, and promoting transparency and accountability are essential steps towards strengthening corporate governance in Indian SOEs. Keywords: State-owned enterprises, corporate governance, India, Challenges, PSUs

Johannesburg’s transit revolution: a critical report on transit-oriented development strategy

ABSTRACT In urban planning processes, global policies that are evaluated positively may not achieve favorable performance in specific urban, social, and policy circumstances. The practice of transit-oriented development (TOD) strategy in Johannesburg is a representative example. This report focuses on its role in balancing ecological sustainability, social inclusion, economic development, and impact on citizens. The report finds that while TOD can theoretically help eliminate social inequalities and promote economic and ecological sustainability, its practical effect is limited, manifesting in exacerbated government deficits and a growing gap between the rich and the poor. This report examines the causes and provides recommendations.

Article: Power and Expertise in Global Tax Governance

It is a rather broadly held misconception that the project on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) began in September 2013 when the G20 Leaders’ endorsed the OECD’s Action Plan on BEPS.1 The general acceptance of this narrative is understandable and perhaps largely trivial. However, it does tell us something important about our tendency to focus on the foreground of issues – on the immediate and obvious. When public focus is narrowed down to notable events, such as the G20 Leaders’ summits, the background work of tax experts fades out of focus. Often, the work of the expert is not even associated with the idea of public power and authority; it is reduced to something concerned with mere technicalities. Yet, it is the expert who outlines the agenda and prepares the discussion drafts and executive summaries that inform the (political) actor in the foreground of the issues that, based on objective expert knowledge, should somehow be addressed in one way or another. The more complex the issue, the less that the actor in the foreground has the technical ability to assess the merits of the experts’ proposition. Sometimes, owing to our desire to be confident in our ability to grasp difficult concepts, we may ultimately support the expert who makes the claim of superior knowledge over an issue we do not fully comprehend precisely as a result of our lack of understanding so as to deny or conceal this deficiency. Occasionally, such false confidence of the foreground actor in their ability to assess the propositions of the expert may result in a feedback loop in which the ideas of the expert appear to legitimize the power of the foreground actor, and this power subsequently appears to legitimize the expert’s ideas. This article will discuss the role of experts and the everyday power they use in the realm of global tax governance. To date, such a discussion has largely escaped the agenda of legal academic discussion.3 Yet, the importance of the discussion on expert power in tax is paramount; unawareness over this constituent element of the current paradigm results in an inability to address what is known as the legitimacy deficit of global tax governance. This will continue to reproduce global power imbalance in favour of the privileged and at the expense of the disenfranchized. The development of international tax norms into a regime of global tax governance will serve as a framework for this discussion thereby rendering the role of experts working under the auspices of the League of Nations and, subsequently, the OECD at the center of the focus. Global tax governance, technocracy, politics of taxation, experts, framing, BEPS, structural bias, legitimacy

The Untimely Demise of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in Malaysia: A Postmortem and the Way Forward

Abstract We discuss the reasons for the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in Malaysia, its subsequent abolition, and the factors to consider if it is to be reinstated. The GST was implemented hastily to rein in mounting government deficits and debt. The lack of preparation to address its impact on the general price level, and incomes of poorer households in an economy already predisposed to inflation, led to widespread public discontent. The high compliance costs borne by smaller firms, delays in providing tax refunds to businesses, and the wasteful use of the additional revenues the tax generated strengthened the anti-GST sentiment. Any attempt to bring back the GST must focus on gaining acceptance rather than the revenue it generates. This is best achieved by timing its reintroduction correctly, keeping the rate low, the base broad, and implementing parallel measures to supplement the incomes of households seriously undermined by the tax on the consumption side. Additionally, addressing leakages, waste, and corruption in the public sector will strengthen public acceptance of the tax and instill confidence in public sector fiscal management.

The political business cycle of tax reforms

A political business cycle (PBC), with governments adjusting and timing economic policy for electoral gains, has long been hypothesized. A lack of data has so far limited testing of this phenomenon for government policies as opposed to fiscal outcomes such as tax revenue or government deficit, especially at the national level. We use new monthly data on tax reform announcements for a set of 22 democracies, 1988–2014, to test the PBC hypothesis for taxation. In addition to the traditional electoral strategy formulation of the PBC, we also put forward and test a capacity version of the PBC. We find evidence for the capacity version but not the traditional version of the PBC: tax reforms are less likely to be announced before elections and more likely after elections, independently of whether they are increases or decreases. Our evidence suggests that while a PBC exists, it may be less driven by strategic electioneering and more innocuous than previously assumed.

Market risk exposure determinants during the COVID-19 outbreak: between competitiveness and inequality

PurposeThe objective of this research is to identify the economic, demographic, sanitary and even cultural factors which explain the variability in the cross-section of returns in different markets globally during the first weeks after the outbreak of COVID-19.Design/methodology/approachBuilding on the event study methodology and using seemingly unrelated equations, the authors created several indicators on the impact of the pandemic in 75 different markets. Then, and using cross-sectional regressions robust to heteroscedasticity and using an algorithm to select independent variables from more than 30 factors, the authors determine which factors were behind the different stock market reactions to the pandemic.FindingsHigher currency depreciation, inflation, interest rate or government deficit led to higher returns, while higher life expectancy, ageing population, GDP per capita or health spending led to the opposite effect. However, the positive effect of competitiveness and the negative effect of income inequality stand out for their statistical and economic significance.Originality/valueThis research provides a global view of investors' reaction to an extreme and unique event. Using a sample of 75 capital markets and testing the relevance of more than 30 variables from all categories, it is, to the authors' knowledge, the largest and most ambitious study of its kind.