Global Vulnerability Research Articles

An Application of Possibilistic Moments of Nonlinear Type of Fuzzy Numbers in Supply Chain Management

The supply chain (SC) network is prone to disturbance due to various uncertainties associated with their subsystems. The COVID-19 outbreak has exposed the global vulnerability of the supply chain network. The current pandemic has severely affected almost every SC network because its members are situated at the international level. One of the reasons for SC network failure is the deterministic assumptions of different parameters. A realistic SC network model requires the use of the uncertain value of the parameters, which can be further captured by fuzzy numbers. This paper discusses the possibilistic moment of several nonlinear types of fuzzy numbers that are important for SC network modeling. We give closed-form possibilistic moments’ expression for various types of fuzzy numbers that are very similar to the moment’s properties in probability theory and stochastic process. We then illustrate the application of proposed fuzzy numbers by solving an inventory model. This paper also provides results related to the EPQ inventory model in a fuzzy possibilistic setup.

A global trade supply chain vulnerability in COVID-19 pandemic: An assessment metric of risk and resilience-based efficiency of CoDEA method

The COVID-19 pandemic has an adverse impact on the global trade supply chain. Countries where the economy is driven by global trade, either as exporters or importers and are faced with the problem of declining imports and exports. This is due to the interruption of the main players of the global supply chain (i.e., production, logistics and transportation sector) as well as the slow-down in consumption of overseas customers. This paper presents the development of an efficiency related metric from the Coherent Data Envelopment Analysis (CoDEA) method for assessing the vulnerability (or conversely, the robustness) levels of the supply chain system of six ASEAN countries. The results reveal that Thailand is most vulnerable to international supply chain issues indicated by its lowest efficiency score. This is due to Thailand's severe disruption of logistics and transportation systems compared with its neighboring countries. In contrast, Vietnam is the most robust because of its efficiency in the exports sector. Our research reveals that trading partners with a lower risk and the ability to rapidly recover their import volume reflect their less vulnerable supply chains. This research provides the associated strategies to establish a resilient global supply chain in spite of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Crossing artificial obstacles during migration: The relative global ecological risks and interdependencies illustrated by the migration of common quail Coturnix coturnix

The increase of urban expansion, whereby soils become altered or filled with buildings through human action, presents a global threat to biodiversity and the spread of disease. Many of the factors determining bird migration routes and disease spread are poorly understood. We studied the migration routes of common quail Coturnix coturnix in western Europe. We examined the recoveries of ringed birds to characterize their migration trajectories to understand how this nocturnal migrant crosses artificial areas and predict the risk of migration collapse and disease transmission. We evaluated the possible consequences of quail collisions with human infrastructure elements (i.e., buildings, cranes, overhead cables and wires, and wind farm structures) to assess disease transmission in relation to the amount of urban soil. Our results show that variations in the amount of artificialized soil in central Europe are correlated with the relative absence of quail migratory routes. Conceptual models incorporating environmental ecology showed the relationships between climate warming, agroecosystems, and urban ecosystems as well as human health and economic growth. We predict a drastic loss of biodiversity and spread of disease if we do not curb the spread of land consumption. Taking a broad view of the interrelations discussed here allows predictions of global vulnerability and increased risks to health due to losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Lessons drawn from migration route maps of quail in relation to the distribution of urbanized soils provide tools for global conservation political decision making.

A Systematic Review of Child Health and Developmental Outcomes Associated with Low Birthweight and/or Small for Gestational Age in Indigenous Children from Australia, Canada and New Zealand

While much is known about the health implications of low birthweight for infants and adults, there is limited information about the health implications in childhood, particularly for Indigenous children. The aim of this systematic review was to assess associations between low birthweight (LBW) and/or small for gestational age (SGA) and the developmental, physical or mental health outcomes for Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Indigenous children (5–12 years), including the potential mediating role of cultural connections. The review was guided by an Aboriginal Advisory Group established to guide the Aboriginal Families Study. Four databases were investigated with pre-determined inclusion/exclusion criteria. The search identified 417 articles after independent screening by two authors. Eight studies assessing six child outcomes were included. The review identified limited evidence, although the review suggested possible links between LBW and/or SGA and childhood asthma, lower body mass index (BMI) and poorer academic performance. Links between LBW, SGA and disability, global health and developmental vulnerability were inconclusive. One study identified cultural-based resilience as protective against perinatal adversity. In summary, research on the relationship between adverse birth outcomes and Indigenous children’s health and development is limited. Further investigation and collaboration with Indigenous communities is required to drive optimised health and social services responses and equitable system reform.

Global vulnerability hotspots: differences and agreement between international indicator-based assessments

Climate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience.

Prognostic value of ABCDE stress echocardiography

Abstract Background Stress echocardiography (SE) was recently upgraded to the ABCDE protocol: step A, regional wall motion abnormalities; step B, B-lines; step C, left ventricular contractile reserve; step D, Doppler-based coronary flow velocity reserve in left anterior descending coronary artery; and step E, EKG-based heart rate reserve. Aim: to assess the prognostic value of ABCDE-SE in a prospective, large scale, multicenter, international, effectiveness study. Methods From July 2016 to November 2020, we enrolled 3,574 all-comers (age 65±11 years, 2,070 males, 58%; ejection fraction 60±10%) with known or suspected chronic coronary syndromes referred from 13 certified laboratories. All patients underwent ABCDE-SE. The employed stress modality was exercise (n=952, with semi-supine bike, n=887, or treadmill, n=65 with adenosine for step D) or pharmacological stress (n=2,622, with vasodilator, n=2,151; or dobutamine, n=471). SE response ranged from score 0 (all steps normal) to score 5 (all steps abnormal). All-cause death was the only end-point. Results Rate of abnormal results was 16% for A, 30% for B, 36% for C, 28% for D and 37% for E step. During a median follow-up of 21 months, 73 deaths occurred. At univariable analysis, predictors of all-cause mortality were step B (hazard ratio, HR: 2.621, 95% Confidence Intervals, CI: 1.654–4.152, p<0.001), step D (HR: 2.578, 95% CI: 1.624–4.093, p<0.001), and step E (HR: 2.955, 95% CI: 1.848–4.725, p<0.001), but not step A (HR: 1.333, 95% CI: 0.731–2.430, p=0.349) and step C (HR1.581, 95% CI: 0.997–2.506, p=0.051). At multivariable analysis, ABCDE-SE was an independent predictor of mortality with score 3 (HR: 3.472, 95% CI: 1.483–8.135, p=0.004), 4 (HR: 4.045, 95% CI: 1.595–10.259, p=0.003) and 5 (HR: 5.678, 95% CI: 2.106–15.313, p=0.001) (Figure). Annual mortality rate ranged from 0.4% person/year for score 0 up to 2.4% person/year for score 5. Conclusion ABCDE-SE allows an effective risk stratification of patient global vulnerability. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Survival curves based on ABCDE score

Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil‐plant‐atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more. Unlike water potential, which requires demanding in situ measurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing measurements, particularly at microwave frequencies using radar and radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers through which VWC has the potential to significantly increase our understanding of forest responses to water stress. To validate remote sensing observations of VWC at landscape scale and to better relate them to data assimilation model parameters, we introduce an ecosystem‐scale analog of the pressure–volume curve, the non‐linear relationship between average leaf or branch water potential and water content commonly used in plant hydraulics. The sources of variability in these ecosystem‐scale pressure‐volume curves and their relationship to forest response to water stress are discussed. We further show to what extent diel, seasonal, and decadal dynamics of VWC reflect variations in different processes relating the tree response to water stress. VWC can also be used for inferring belowground conditions—which are difficult to impossible to observe directly. Lastly, we discuss how a dedicated geostationary spaceborne observational system for VWC, when combined with existing datasets, can capture diel and seasonal water dynamics to advance the science and applications of global forest vulnerability to future droughts.

Multiepitope Proteins for the Differential Detection of IgG Antibodies against RBD of the Spike Protein and Non-RBD Regions of SARS-CoV-2.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the extent of global connectivity and collective vulnerability to emerging diseases. From its suspected origins in Wuhan, China, it spread to all corners of the world in a matter of months. The absence of high-performance, rapid diagnostic methods that could identify asymptomatic carriers contributed to its worldwide transmission. Serological tests offer numerous benefits compared to other assay platforms to screen large populations. First-generation assays contain targets that represent proteins from SARS-CoV-2. While they could be quickly produced, each actually has a mixture of specific and non-specific epitopes that vary in their reactivity for antibodies. To generate the next generation of the assay, epitopes were identified in three SARS-Cov-2 proteins (S, N, and Orf3a) by SPOT synthesis analysis. After their similarity to other pathogen sequences was analyzed, 11 epitopes outside of the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein that showed high reactivity and uniqueness to the virus. These were incorporated into a ß-barrel protein core to create a highly chimeric protein. Another de novo protein was designed that contained only epitopes in the RBD. In-house ELISAs suggest that both multiepitope proteins can serve as targets for high-performance diagnostic tests. Our approach to bioengineer chimeric proteins is highly amenable to other pathogens and immunological uses.

Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.

71Advanced Environmental Epidemiology for Health and Climate Research

Abstract Focus and outcomes for participants The symposium will focus on insights and applications of advanced environmental epidemiology methods in health and climate research. The symposium will help the participants Rationale for the symposium, including for its inclusion in the Congress Climate change is the greatest health challenge in the 21st century. The most recent Lancet Countdown report (Watts et al. 2019) and the MJA-Lancet Countdown Australian reports (Zhang et al. 2018; Beggs et al. 2019) on health and climate change research have once again highlighted the global vulnerability to health risks from climate change. Epidemiology plays an important role in informing policy to protect the public’s health from a changing climate. However, limited research has been conducted in the field, which may be due to the methodological challenges to conducting research in climate change epidemiology (Xun et al. 2010). However, there are opportunities for advancing epidemiological research in the context of climate change, as highlighted in the recent paper published in the American Journal of Epidemiology (Anderson et al. 2019). The proposed symposium aligns precisely with the conference theme on methodological innovations in epidemiology and the need for epidemiologists who are keen to address non-traditional epidemiological health risks to support decision-making under a changing climate. This symposium will be a timely event to build capacity needed to address more extreme weather events and disasters related to climate change in Australia and globally. Presentation program (90 minutes) The symposium will have 6 presentations, 15 minutes each including Q&A. Names and short biography of presenters

The impact of climate change on regional food security

Climate change has serious consequences for agriculture and food security, creating new risks and challenges and exacerbating existing local to global vulnerabilities. Climate change can affect all aspects of the food security of vulnerable groups, as well as various elements of food systems. Climate transformation and food security are two challenges that need to be addressed together. The aim of this research is to study the impact of climate change on regional food security. In the course of the research, the following methods were used: structural and logical analysis, monographic analysis, methods of statistical grouping. As a result of the study, using the example of the Southern and Central Federal Districts, the authors have analyzed the dynamics of various indicators of the state of natural conditions and the actions of regional government structures, which reflect individual elements of maintaining food security. The proposed methodological approach to assessing the impact of climate change on regional food security is distinguished by the use of private indicators for diagnosing the level of food security. The system of these indicators includes both the study of natural conditions and the level of ecological safety of the region. The use of the proposed tools for measuring the impact of climate change on regional food security will increase the effectiveness of the actions of regional government structures, which reflect individual elements of maintaining food security.

Global assessment of marine and freshwater recreational fish reveals mismatch in climate change vulnerability and conservation effort.

Recreational fisheries contribute substantially to the sociocultural and economic well-being of coastal and riparian regions worldwide, but climate change threatens their sustainability. Fishery managers require information on how climate change will impact key recreational species; however, the absence of a global assessment hinders both directed and widespread conservation efforts. In this study, we present the first global climate change vulnerability assessment of recreationally targeted fish species from marine and freshwater environments (including diadromous fishes). We use climate change projections and data on species' physiological and ecological traits to quantify and map global climate vulnerability and analyze these patterns alongside the indices of socioeconomic value and conservation effort to determine where efforts are sufficient and where they might fall short. We found that over 20% of recreationally targeted fishes are vulnerable to climate change under a high emission scenario. Overall, marine fishes had the highest number of vulnerable species, concentrated in regions with sensitive habitat types (e.g., coral reefs). However, freshwater fishes had higher proportions of species at risk from climate change, with concentrations in northern Europe, Australia, and southern Africa. Mismatches in conservation effort and vulnerability were found within all regions and life-history groups. A key pattern was that current conservation effort focused primarily on marine fishes of high socioeconomic value rather than on the freshwater and diadromous fishes that were predicted to be proportionately more vulnerable. While several marine regions were notably lacking in protection (e.g., Caribbean Sea, Banda Sea), only 19% of vulnerable marine species were without conservation effort. By contrast, 72% of freshwater fishes and 33% of diadromous fishes had no measures in place, despite their high vulnerability and cultural value. The spatial and taxonomic analyses presented here provide guidance for the future conservation and management of recreational fisheries as climate change progresses.

Large conservation opportunities exist in >90% of tropic-subtropic coastal habitats adjacent to cities

Large conservation opportunities exist in >90% of tropic-subtropic coastal habitats adjacent to cities

Atmospheric etudes: no 1, troposphere

As a fourth-year music composition major at MacEwan University, Mari Alice Conrad was interested in exploring the concept of vulnerability. She was particularly inspired by her recent vulnerable experiences returning to school as a mature student and sought to understand these existential experiences in more depth. This curiosity led Conrad to design a research-creation project in her Ethnomusicology course that utilized her skills in composing a musical work that explored vulnerability on three distinct levels: personal vulnerability, societal vulnerability, and global vulnerability. 
 The first level, personal vulnerability, plunged into Conrad's personal experiences as a mature student who, by age and life experience, had been socially segregated to a minority group, and how she was processing those experiences. The second level, sociological vulnerability, specifically focused on addressing societal traditions of classical music and notational conventions for the piano. Conrad sought to displace the customary approach she had developed with the instrument since childhood and considered ways to make the piano (an inanimate object) and its notated music vulnerable. The third level was a more global, ecological, or environmental vulnerability of the weather systems found in the troposphere, the first layer of the atmosphere. Conrad wanted to understand why this layer was extremely volatile and susceptible to multiple variables and how humans interacted with the vulnerability of this force. This third level was also an area that she could universally connect with her audience (hence the title of the composition) and acted as a bridge to explore the other two levels of vulnerability in her work. 
 Throughout the research-creation process, Conrad was able to explore the three levels of vulnerability in tremendous depth, express her interactions and discoveries of these three levels, and further disseminate her findings through notating a graphic score, recording the composition, and crafting an audiovisual representation. The final result of the research-creation composition project (music score and video) brilliantly weaves together concepts of vulnerability in a compelling and meaningful way and shares insight into how these ideas influence and encapsulate Conrad's budding artistic practice.

Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change

Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with a dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks and accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk to global crop yields from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains we observe only slight moderation of short-run impacts by farmers' long-run adjustments. In the absence of additional margins of adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that the climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end, under a vigorous warming scenario.

Prioritization of Vulnerable Species Under Scenarios of Anthropogenic-Driven Change in Georgia's Coastal Plain

Abstract Effective management of wildlife populations benefits from an understanding of the long-term vulnerability of species to anthropogenic stressors. Exposure to potential habitat change is one measure of vulnerability that wildlife managers often use to assess and prioritize individual species or groups of species for resource allocation or direct management actions. We used species distribution models for 15 species occurring in the coastal plain ecoregion of Georgia to estimate the current amount and distribution of potential habitat and then predict exposure to changes in habitat due to inundation from sea level rise (using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes model) and urban growth (using the Slope Land-use Excluded Urban Topology Hillshade Growth model) for four future time points. Our results predict that all focal species were likely to experience some exposure to habitat change from either sea level rise or urbanization, but few species will experience high exposure to change from both stressors. Species that use salt marsh or beach habitats had the highest predicted exposure from sea level rise (25–69%), while species that use more inland habitats had the highest predicted exposure to urban growth (10–20%). Our models are a resource for managers considering tradeoffs between prioritization schemes under two future stressors. Results suggest that managers may need to prioritize species (or their habitats) based on the predicted magnitude of habitat loss, while also contextualizing prioritization with respect to the current amount of available protected habitat and species global vulnerability.

How are healthcare provider systems preparing for health emergency situations?

Natural disasters, disease outbreaks, famine, and human conflict have strained communities everywhere over the course of human existence. However, modern changes in climate, human mobility, and other factors have increased the global community's vulnerability to widespread emergencies. We are in the midst of a disruptive health event, with the COVID‐19 pandemic testing our health provider systems globally. This study presents a qualitative analysis of published literature, obtained systematically, to examine approaches health providers are taking to prepare for and respond to mass casualty incidents around the globe. The research reveals emerging trends in the weaknesses of systems' disaster responses while highlighting proposed solutions, so that others may better prepare for future disasters. Additionally, the research examines gaps in the literature, to foster more targeted and actionable contributions to the literature.

The Influence of Internal Contradictions in the Us Economy on Global Financialization and the Expansion of Fictitious Capital

The financialization genesis of the global economy centered in the United States is on the bifurcation point now— a fictive capital’ expansion is damaging with the social capital regeneration mechanism disaster. The method of identifying and estimating the fictive capital’ extension is absent for now. The fictive capital exists as a metaphor on the science papers but not as an institutional basis of the capital flows directions. The paper aims to update the configuration of the global financial system, its dependence on the performance of US corporations and banks; to identify the sources of vulnerability of world finance and global liquidity from the fictitious capital of American financial markets. The methodology is theoretical pattern’ of financial capital movements and its real statistical market indicators comparison. The empirical base is statistical data about the financial flows and financial results especially about the US as a global financial center. Based on the results the authors have revealed an origin of fictive capital on the US bank sector by the justification for the conclusion of liquidity above the profitable as the purpose of financial operations. This conclusion is confirmed with the scale of off-balance sheet transactions of banks. Besides the regression between the prices of derivative’ basis assets and stock indexes has been shown. Also, the market capitalization of American companies is not sensitive to change in market liquidity indicators. The authors concluded that global financialization is supported by significant internal contradictions in the US economy. The source of contradictions is the financial mechanism for withdrawing liquidity from the sphere of production and circulation into the sphere of financial markets. Capital investment using instruments of the US financial market entails the threat of losing their liquidity. Forecasting the dynamics of the global economy without taking into account the role of fictitious capital, which is emerging in the American financial markets, leads to global vulnerability and may cause the next financial crisis.

Sources of Bias in Research on Gambling Among Older Adults: Considerations for a Growing Field

The purpose of this review was to identify possible sources of bias in the study of gambling among older adults. These sources of bias included social desirability bias including issues of increased stigmatization of gambling behaviors in older adults, recall bias including deficits in the recall of negative experiences, and selection bias including increased reliance on survey methods that are more likely to exclude older adults. Due to the paucity of research directly examining sources of bias in the study of older adult gambling, this review took recent developments in the field of gambling research and compared them across known issues in researching older adults taken from other fields. Those sources of bias that have the most support in the literature were discussed. The trend of increased focus on the experiences of older adults in gambling research is likely to continue given the aging of the Global North and potential vulnerabilities to harm associated with old age. The field must make a more effort to directly assess unique sources of bias in this area in order to ensure that future findings are reflective of the wide range of experiences that is captured within the category of “older adult.”

A Community-Structure-Based Method for Estimating the Fractal Dimension, and its Application to Water Networks for the Assessment of Vulnerability to Disasters

Most real-world networks, from the World-Wide-Web to biological systems, are known to have common structural properties. A remarkable point is fractality, which suggests the self-similarity across scales of the network structure of these complex systems. Managing the computational complexity for detecting the self-similarity of big-sized systems represents a crucial problem. In this paper, a novel algorithm for revealing the fractality, that exploits the community structure principle, is proposed and then applied to several water distribution systems (WDSs) of different size, unveiling a self-similar feature of their layouts. A scaling-law relationship, linking the number of clusters necessary for covering the network and their average size is defined, the exponent of which represents the fractal dimension. The self-similarity is then investigated as a proxy of recurrent and specific response to multiple random pipe failures – like during natural disasters – pointing out a specific global vulnerability for each WDS. A novel vulnerability index, called Cut-Vulnerability is introduced as the ratio between the fractal dimension and the average node degree, and its relationships with the number of randomly removed pipes necessary to disconnect the network and with some topological metrics are investigated. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the novel index in describing the global vulnerability of WDSs.