Global Turbulence Research Articles

Integrating Risk into the Analysis

Abstract In times of global turbulence, risk management is key to ensuring competitiveness. For the management of manufacturing networks, the analysis of country risks is crucial. Operations managers must identify and manage risks arising from adverse country developments at an early stage. This paper presents a framework to map these risks and their impact on the manufacturing network. Two industry examples show how operations managers can use the approach to analyze and mitigate country-level risks.

The trading cooperation of Vietnam with Russia under the current global turbulence

The significance and possibilities for furthering economic ties between Russia and Vietnam in the light of the current global scenario establish the relevance of this study. The purpose of the research paper is to provide multi-dimensional views on the bilateral trade relationship between Russia and Vietnam in different time periods, as well as to make judgments for the future. The aim of the study is to analyze the context and situation of exports and imports between the two countries. The main methods of the study are to collect and analyze historical data, thereby making analyses and comparisons based on different influencing factors. Both nations should exert more effort to strengthen their cooperation, expand into new areas, improve their infrastructure to speed up transactions, and look for shared solutions to payment issues that could affect the entire import and export process in order to be able to develop further and make the most of the development potential. Additionally, promoting commerce and raising investment capital between firms in both countries depends on the facilitation of tourist and cultural exchange activities between the two nations.

МІЖНАРОДНИЙ БІЗНЕС В УМОВАХ ТУРБУЛЕНТНОСТІ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ

The article is devoted to the study of trends in the evolutionary changes of international business in the context of global economic turbulence. It is established that the global economy is currently at the stage of turbulent fluctuations, the factors and at the same time the results of which are the strengthening of new features that are almost polar to the attributes of the economy of the past decade. The turbulence of the global economy provokes relevant trends in the development of international business: a decrease in the rate of scaling of the international companies activities; comprehensive digitization of business processes; reformatting of global chains of value formation in terms of length, fragmentation and localization; strengthening cyber security and information protection in order to minimize financial and reputational risks; the growth of e-commerce; multichannel communications with consumers; increasing the social responsibility of international companies and increasing investments in sustainable development; increasing the value of human capital and permanent modernization of the international companies HR management. Artificial intelligence and human creative capital are becoming the identifying carrier of globalization changes, which is a source of innovative efficiency of international business processes and a critical factor for sustainable development. This stimulates a steady increase of investment in the development of artificial intelligence and its implementation in international business practices. Artificial intelligence has become a factor in the development of traditional economic sectors and a driver of the creative economy as a new global phenomenon. It is established that the growth of the creative economy is characterized by the disparity between countries with different levels of development in international trade in goods and services of creative industries: a clear dominance of developed countries in the services segment and a dynamic increase in the contribution of developing countries in the segment of creative goods. On a global scale, artificial intelligence is not limited to international business and is being actively integrated into the process of developing and implementing sustainable development strategies.

The impact of small business on sustainable development in the Vuca- and Bani-worlds

The article is devoted to the presentation of scientific results of the author’s research and development of scenarios for the development of small business in Russia under the conditions of VUCA and BANI worlds. The authors analyze the impact of small business on the process of sustainable development. According to the results of the scientific publication it was argued that the life cycle of small business in Russia is in complex turbulent conditions resulting from the manifestation of VUCA-and BANI-factors and their multiplication as a result of overlapping each other: challenges and threats to sustainable economic development of the Russian Federation in conditions of global military and political turbulence and market fluctuations; the state policy of building a digital economy and scaling the activities of marketplaces; Chinese “soft” and “hard” power. The prospects of the scientific research are the analysis of possible effects of the established “black swans”: the collapse of the Eurozone due to the sharp increase in sovereign debts of the countries and deterioration of the financial state; the launch of the center of Islamic finance in Istanbul as a counterweight to the established world financial centers; the forcing by Russia and its allies (primarily China and India) of the processes of launching digital currencies and (or) the approval of a new single currency in contrast to the dollar and the euro.

Financial Contagion of the Commodity Markets from the Stock Market during Pandemic and New Sanctions Shocks

In the context of financial globalization, there is an increasing transmission of global turbulence between different markets, which enhances overall financial instability. The purpose of this study is to identify the financial contagion of the commodity market from the stock market in the 1920s. The research hypothesis is that contagion manifested itself during the period of pandemic shocks of 2020-2021 and new sanctions shocks of 2022-2023. Based on 2016-2023 data on the intersessional average daily return of the S&P GLOBAL 100 index and 22 commodity futures, DCC GARCH models are built. Significant increases in these correlations during periods of external shocks indicate potential contagion. A dynamic Student's t-test for the equality of correlations in the pre-shock period and in the sliding window within the shock and inter-shock periods is used to definitively prove the presence or absence of contagion. The study confirmed the contagion of 22 commodity markets from the stock market of varying strength and duration, both during the pandemic and new sanctions shocks. It proved that the metals market, especially the gold market, was the most susceptible to contagion during the period under review. Copper and zinc turned out to be risk dampers during the period of new sanctions. Among food products, the sugar market has demonstrated the greatest propensity to contagion, but during a period of relative stability it has proven its ability to mitigate systemic risks. A number of agricultural commodities (e.g., soybeans and soybean products, corn, wheat), as well as Brent oil, have shown relative resistance to contagion and are recommended as hedging tools. The results and conclusions of the study can be useful to investors in managing optimal portfolios, and to the state when adjusting anti-crisis financial policy during the period of external shocks affecting the economy.

Gyrokinetic simulation of magnetic-island-induced electric potential vortex mode

Ion temperature gradient (ITG)-driven turbulence with embedded static magnetic islands is simulated by utilizing a gyrokinetic theory-based global turbulence transport code (GKNET) in this work. Different from the traditional equilibrium circular magnetic-surface average (EMSA) method, an advanced algorithm that calculates the perturbed magnetic-surface average (PMSA) of the electric potential has been developed to precisely deal with the zonal flow component in a non-circular magnetic surface perturbed by magnetic islands. Simulations show that the electric potential vortex structure inside islands induced by the magnetic islands is usually of odd parity when using the EMSA method. It is found that the odd symmetry vortex can transfer into an even one after a steep zonal flow gradient, i.e. the flow shear has been built in the vicinity of the magnetic islands by adopting the PMSA algorithm. The phase of the potential vortex in the poloidal cross section is coupled with the zonal flow shear. Such an electric potential vortex mode may be of essential importance in wide topics, such as the turbulence spreading across magnetic islands, neoclassical tearing mode physics, and also the interaction dynamics between the micro-turbulence and MHD activities.

Instrumental Factors of Soft Power in an Era of Global Turbulence

The article presents a realist view of soft power. In this interpretation, soft power is a tool that provides advantages in international competition. As a concept and practice, soft power is associated with the idea of globalization and hegemonism, it serves primarily the interests of the hegemon but ultimately creates common benefits for a significant part of the international community. However, today we are witnessing the crisis of American hegemony and weariness of the West’s soft power. These changes encourage the search for new ways to build a fairer world order. The author argues that to achieve this goal, Russia’s soft power should go beyond efforts to improve its international image and protect its sovereignty and traditional values. This vision of soft power does not elucidate what the future world should be like and what role Russia should play in it.

Public Governance in the Context of Global Turbulence: Risk-Reflexive Approach

The article examines methodological trends and combinations in the discourse of political strategic management of dangers and threats under the conditions of the new specific type of risk society formation, which is qualitatively different from the classical version of the ‘risk society’. In this study, using a risk-reflexive approach, authors propose a research route to analyze the transformation of public governance and enlighten the main directions of social behaviour strategies modeling, designing tools for prevention and reducing negative effects of emerging risks. Based on the analysis of the ‘Giddens paradox’ and the concept of ‘organized irresponsibility’ by U.Beck, the problems of the efficiency of public governance institutions in ensuring security and preventing threats are considered. The authors’ attention is focused on analyzing the hierarchy of ways to justify the acceptability of risk and the subjects of risk management. Approaches to the classification of types of power used by subjects of public risk management are investigated. In this regard, the article identifies three mechanisms for the formation of risk-reflexivity (forced, imitative, normative). A theoretical perspective is presented for considering informational, strategic, institutional, motivational and simulation risk reflections in public governance process. Special attention is paid to the main forms of public governance competencies in political risk management, especially in the context of digital transformation, which opens up new opportunities for information impact and cognitive programming of risk perception.

Региональные особенности российских компаний-«газелей» в пандемию

In the context of global turbulence, the Russian national economy needs positive economic practices of resilience and subsequent development. This need is even greater in regional economies, where a few relatively small growth points, including high-growth firms (HGFs, ‘gazelles’), can become drivers for the entire region. The study analyses the performance of high-growing firms and their impact on regional resilience during the acute phase of the global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021). A sample of 11,940 firms (including 403 HGFs) in Sverdlovsk, Vologda, Kurgan, Lipetsk, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk regions, Krasnoyarsk krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan was examined. The research uses such approaches as estimation of the shares of HGFs by number and output and assessment of correlation using the nonparametric method of Spearman’s coefficient. The share of HGFs in the sample as a whole and for each region is consistent with global trends (2-4 %). The industrial structure of high-growth firms differs across regions, meaning that HGFs manifest themselves individually in various regions. ‘Gazelles’ demonstrated a greater ability to preserve jobs during the pandemic in most regions of the sample. For example, while an average employment growth rate was 2 % in 2020, this figure was 25 % for HGFs in Krasnoyarsk krai and Sverdlovsk oblast. During economic recession, ‘gazelles’ positively affect regional resilience in such activities as transport and storage, wholesale and retail trade, and mining. The result is the opposite for manufacturing: a larger share of high-growth companies was characteristic of regions with slower output growth rates for this type of activity in 2020–2121. The findings can be used to substantiate the significance of developing and implementing government support programmes for HGFs at the federal and regional levels.

Design Management of an Innovative Model of Sustainable Development and Regional Features in Conditions of Global Turbulence

The article’s purpose is to apply design management in forming an innovative model of sustainable development with adaptation to regional features in conditions of global turbulence. Indicators and indicators for evaluating the quality of functioning of the model of sustainable development laid down in the goals of sustainable development for the regions of Ukraine with their systematization and certain additions are proposed. Based on the results of the calculations, we will receive the results of achievements in the field of implementation of the model of sustainable development of the Black Sea region of Ukraine both in terms of the general economic, social, and ecological components and in terms of indicators, which will create prerequisites for making management decisions regarding the revision of goals, improvement of influence tools, optimization of transformational processes. The results of the evaluation of the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals of the Black Sea Region of Ukraine made it possible to propose the design of an innovative model of sustainable development of the region in conditions of global turbulence. The design management of the innovative model of sustainable development covers the main principles, criteria, mechanisms, and tools for implementing sustainable development goals in the regions, which can be integrated into the management systems of state and regional projects at different levels. The model of sustainable development of the region is focused on ensuring the continued functioning of the regional system based on self-organization processes based on the gradual improvement of potential technologies and management mechanisms, taking into account existing achievements and shortcomings through the establishment of horizontal and vertical communications and the development of adaptive qualities of its components.

Global turbulence, emerging powers and the regional integration potential in the Global South

During the past decade the world has witnessed an increase of developments that are shaking the global status quo. Among others, China-US/West economic frictions and the Russian invasion in Ukraine are leading to a retreat of globalization, with emphasis being given to regional production networks and value chains. Likewise, there are signs of reorganization or reinforcement of regional integration schemes such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and South–South cooperation fora such as the BRICS in view of failure of global governance structuresto optimally address the various issues raised. This article explores these developments and highlights how the alternatives created by the emergence of new “grand” actors are producing a potential bandwagoning effect in the Global South.

Turbulent paleoenvironment linked to astronomical forcing during the Permian–Triassic transition

The Milankovitch cycles are essential for establishing high-resolution chronological frameworks, which can provide a reliable timescale for biological and environmental events. However, astronomical solutions for the Paleozoic are still imperfect. Moreover, global paleoenvironmental turbulence during the Permian-Triassic (PT) transition caused interference with most proxies reflecting astronomical cycles. This study discovered that the Sb/Cd series can reflect astronomical cycle signals through a time-series analysis of geochemical elemental data from cores around the Lopingian–Lower Triassic in the Lower Yangtze region. Combined with zircon SHRIMP dating of volcanic ashes, a reliable absolute astronomical timescale with a duration of 2.5 Myr was established from 100-kyr eccentricity-tuned results. Based on the coupling analysis of palaeoenvironmental proxies, this study evaluated the effect of astronomical forcing and volcanism on the paleoenvironment. The sea level change was influenced by obliquity during the Lopingian–Early Triassic. During the Wuchiapingian–Changhsingian (WC) and PT transitions, regional volcanic activities at South China and the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province (STLIP) intervened the normal trend of a low-temperature arid climate dominated by the obliquity forcing, respectively. Thus, South China exhibited a hot humid climate during the WC and PT transitions. Conversely, the low-temperature climate in South China was significantly modulated by obliquity forcing during the middle Changhsingian. Besides the influences of intense igneous activities and related environmental effects, disruption the long-term stable low-temperature environment by the abnormal high-temperature around the PT transition was a tremendous challenge to the biological ecological adaptation, and thereby may have contributed to the end-Permian mass extinction.

Armed forces and military-industrial complex of India in the era of global turbulence

The article is devoted to the problems of modernization of the armed forces of India and its military-industrial complex. Analyzing the ties between the military-industrial complex and the armed forces of India, the author concludes that the size of the Indian armed forces, coupled with the system of their recruitment, hinders the process of modernization. At the same time, the Indian leadership cannot agree to a reduction in the army, both for political and social and for military-strategic reasons, relying on limited reforms designed to change the process of recruiting.

The Republic of Korea Between China and the United States in the Face of Confrontation Over Taiwan

The article gives a tentative analysis of factors impacting the domestic and foreign policy of the Republic of Korea amid the growing confrontation between the “global West” spearheaded by the U.S. and the “global East” led by Russia and China. While the conflict between Washington and Beijing is being escalated, the South Korean leadership is likely to find itself in a precarious situation where it has to make a choice between its main economic partner and theideological overlord in terms of value orientation and security . Understanding the upcoming political course of Seoul, especially in light of the conflict over Taiwan, is of great scientific value and is important for applied international relations studies. Based on the analysis of the main trends of global turbulence and regional security, the authors propose a scenario prognosis developed on the basis of situational analysis and author’s modeling techniques , which would include both the general trends of the country’s foreign policy and the level of potential involvement of South Korea into a probable conflict between the U.S. and China in the Taiwan Strait. It is also worth noting that the most evident outcome will be the preserved alliance with Washington which is closer to South Korea when it comes to its social and political values and a gradual deterioration in relations with China, the speed of which may vary. However, the authors conclude by saying that Seoul will go to great lengths to postpone this uneasy choice and will try to distance itself from direct participation in a military conflict.

Dynamics of oil price shocks in Latin American stock markets during global turbulence: A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analysis

This paper investigates the impacts of oil price shocks on the stock markets of six Latin American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru – by employing a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. This is during periods of global turbulence triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The study used data gathered from January 2020 to July 2023, daily stock prices of the six countries, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) as a proxy of the oil price index. The analysis revealed that the complex relationship between oil price shocks and stock markets in Latin America has changed significantly since the start of the pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian War. The findings indicate that the relationship between oil price changes and stock markets is not a straightforward linear correlation, but rather is more complex, with non-linear and counteracting effects, likely due to the uncertainty created by the pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian War, which has caused investors to be more cautious when responding to oil price shocks.

The Change of European International Relationship under the Background of the Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine war, as one of the most important geopolitical events since the twenty-first century, has increasingly become a major preoccupation of Politics and International Relations researchers. The researchers realise that the nature of the prospect of current and future European politics is still in controversy. This research aims to provide an understanding of the change of dynamics of current European states foreign policy and the international relationship under the background of the Russia-Ukraine war. The Russia-Ukraine war was one of the most crucial geopolitical events since the twenty-first century. Russia and Ukraine have a considerable influence on global politics and the economy, triggering a series of global turbulence after they went to war. Europe is the region that is most severely affected. A range of scholars and researchers proposed their own understanding of the issue and provided various perspectives. This research examines and analyses the current European international politics by looking at the different actions and motivations of foreign policy combined with theories of different schools. It shows that what Europeans had decided or done was not usually independent and restricted and affected by external pressures or internal economic considerations. These factors render the embarrassment of current European international relationships.

Global Economic Turbulence and Recovery in the Wake of COVID-19: An Analysis of Impact, Government Responses, and Future Preparedness

Global Economic Turbulence and Recovery in the Wake of COVID-19: An Analysis of Impact, Government Responses, and Future Preparedness

Innovation-driven economic growth under global turbulence: how countries strengthen innovation systems to deal with threats

ABSTRACT The role of innovation as a major force of economic growth is not to doubt. Despite this, geopolitical challenges in recent years pose difficulties for countries, especially for those who struggle with lower GDP per-capita, to enhance innovative performance and grow. Building upon the national innovation system concept and using the methodological framework of country-level composite innovation indexes, this paper aims to explore features of innovation systems inherent in lagging economies and their relevance for economic growth. The analysis, based on a panel dataset comprising the Global Innovation Index elementary indicators on 76 countries during 2015–2021, demonstrates the lower initial state, but faster development of innovation system components in lagging economies. Crucial to their growth is the external validation of national innovation efforts, proxied by international trade and foreign investment indicators. In addition, a sustainable economic growth requires balanced and synergetic development of all components and functions. Therefore, bottom-up approaches are needed to sustain further growth of lagging economies, starting with the provision of effective resource allocation, knowledge creation and its diffusion.

Monitoring of relationships between indicators of food security of the states

The conceptual foundations of monitoring the state’s food security system under the conditions of global turbulence have been deepened. It was determined that the set of indicators of the state of food security used in national practice is imperfect. It is emphasized that the totality of indicators cannot objectively contribute to identifying potential threats to sustainable development and adopting effective management decisions. Attention is focused on the need to consider the impact of other components, including the issues of the accessibility, availability, quality, and safety of food products, as well as their resilience and adaptability. The hypothesis regarding the direct relationship between the degree of compliance of agricultural production in the country with sustainable development principles and the overall level of economic accessibility of food has been proved. The established and mathematically proven direct relationship between the indicators made it possible to emphasize the need to raise the population’s living standards. This is necessary to reduce the negative impact of the production of agricultural products on the environment, which results from the understanding by consumers of the need to satisfy not only basic needs but also to preserve natural resources for future generations. It is mathematically proven that in countries with a high level of economic accessibility of food, the compliance of agricultural production with sustainable development principles has a high level and is strongly correlated with economic factors. In countries with medium and low indicators of economic accessibility of food, such a relationship does not have statistical significance. The conclusions drawn are useful for practical use in conditions of global economic turbulence.

A global turbulence model shows excellent atmospheric optical turbulence conditions over the Ethiopian plateau during non-rainy season

ABSTRACT A worldwide search is currently being conducted to determine the most appropriate sites for the next generation of large optical and infrared telescopes. Here, we report a global map of atmospheric optical turbulence-associated parameter (atmospheric coherence length) based on the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis data set and results for atmospheric coherence lengths at European Southern Observatory and Tibetan Plateau locations (all at mid-latitudes). These confirm the accuracy of the global atmospheric optical turbulence model, but also the simulation result reveals that an excellent atmospheric calm site exist at the Ethiopian Plateau (at a latitude of ∼10°N) outside of the rainy season. The Ethiopian Plateau is the highest plateau in Africa, known as the ‘Roof of Africa’, with an average elevation of over 2500 m, and thus potentially provides good opportunities for astronomy and astrophysics. The median atmospheric coherence length at the Ethiopian Plateau was 17.7 cm and approximately 75 per cent of the time above 15.6 cm for dry conditions, indicating a very calm atmosphere. Although favourable atmospheric turbulence conditions at the Ethiopian Plateau were found from the global turbulence model, due to the complete lack of infrastructure it has never been visited, meaning that additional validation experiments are required.