Global Terrorism Database Research Articles

China and the Islamic State in the Sahel: An Assessment of Potential Threats to Chinese Interests in the Central Sahel

Seeking to fill a void in the existing scholarship since no scholar has yet to examine the Islamic State Sahel Province’s threat to China, this study utilizes a unique approach to examine two questions, namely does the Islamic State Sahel Province pose a threat to Chinese interests in the Central Sahel, and is it likely to impact Beijing’s relations with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger?Part one of this study utilizes data from the Armed Conflict and Event Data Location Data (ACLED) and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) to construct the group’s operational profile. The operational profile covers political violence and strategic developments in each country and across the subregion; the expanse of and shifts in areas of operations; and tactics and targets in each terrorism incident by country and the subregion. Findings from the data analysis are utilized in the second part in conjunction with additional data collected on the economy and China’s economic relations to assess whether the group poses a threat to Chinese interests. The study concludes that in the short-term, the Islamic State Sahel Province does not pose a threat to those interests and recognizes the potential change of the threat in long-term.

Analysis of the Medical Consequences of Global Terrorist Attacks in Turkic States in the Last 50 Years by Weapon and Attack Type.

This research aimed to conduct an epidemiological analysis of the terrorist attacks, which took place in the Turkic states between 1970 and 2019, and their medical consequences in terms of weapons and attack types. The data collected from this research will be valuable for the development of preventive systems against attacks on Turkic states and offer insights on how to effectively prepare for potential future attacks. The population of the research consisted of the weapons and types of attacks of the terrorist attacks in the Turkic states drawn from the Global Terrorism Database provided free of charge by START. The number of deaths, injuries, property damage, primary weapons, and types of attacks were analyzed by country. Between 1970 and 2019, 4629 terrorist incidents occurred and 7496 people lost their lives and 10 928 people were injured. Among the types of weapons, the number of people who lost their lives was mostly in firearms, whereas the number of the injured was mostly in explosive weapons. Among the types of attacks, the number of people who lost their lives was mostly observed in the armed attack, whereas the injuries occurred mostly in the bombing attacks. Among the Turkic states, Turkey is the country most affected in terms of medical outcomes. The terrorist attacks in the Turkic states reached their maximum number in the last 10 years. It is predicted that this number will increase further in the next years and affect more people medically.

The geographical disparity in the terrorism coverage on Ukrainian TV

Introduction. Specific journalist criteria in selecting and filtering terrorist information, the inconsistent media coverage of terrorism in short forms, and media framing of terrorism news can shape a distorted understanding of this phenomenon on a global scale for the audience. This can lead to many negative consequences for a society, particularly the loss of its functional and organizational capabilities to resist terrorism and adequately respond to attacks due to the lack of relevant information. Relevance of the study. As terrorism has become part of Ukrainian media agenda-setting, research on this topic is highly relevant. The findings of our previous studies have demonstrated a particular concentration of media attention on terrorist attacks in the West and an ignoring of the terrorist activities in the world in general. Therefore, we tend to analyze the geographical aspect of the terrorism coverage on Ukrainian TV and its correspondence to the actual terrorist situation worldwide. Methodology. Content analysis is the main research method. The empirical data is collected from the news programs on the five highest-rated Ukrainian TV channels («Ukraina», «ICTV», «1+1», «Inter» and «STB»). The monitoring covered 769 news programs from September 2019 to September 2020, in which 154 news stories about terrorism were found. Among the categorical units of the content analysis was the «geography» of the news story, which included the country and region identification. Having applied the comparative analysis, we could compare the obtained data with the statistics of the Global Terrorism Database, which more accurately echoed the actual terrorist situation globally. Results. The timing of all news about terrorism in South Asia (the most active region in the context of terrorism, where more than a third of all attacks occurred) was only 0.65% of the total volume of terrorism media coverage. Sub-Saharan Africa, where every fourth terrorist attack took place, was represented by only four news reports from the Inter’s correspondent. The third region with the most terrorist activity, the Middle East and North Africa, was mainly highlighted with geopolitical context, ignoring actual terrorist incidents. Ukrainian TV focused on covering national terrorist incidents the most. However, TV channels also concentrated their media attention on the Western world (Western Europe, North America, Eastern Europe), while only 5 % of all terrorist incidents worldwide happened in these regions. Simultaneously, the geographical disparity was discovered in the representation of the world’s countries. Moreover, none of the ten deadliest terrorist attacks was covered by Ukrainian TV channels. Conclusions. Ukrainian TV channels produce a geographical disparity in the media coverage of the terrorism topic, which not only does not correspond to the actual terrorist situation worldwide but also shapes a false image and distorted understanding of the phenomenon by a viewer. Ukrainian journalists can use the research findings to balance the geographical aspect of terrorism media coverage.

Prediction of Unknown Terrorist Group Names Responsible for Attacks in Turkey

In this paper, the dataset of real incidents that occurred in Turkey between 2013 and 2017 and are regarded as acts of terrorism without any doubt according to Global Terrorism Database (GTD) are used to predict the group names responsible for unknown attacks. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique was used for feature selection. A novel voting method between five classification algorithms such as Random Forests, Logistic Regression, AdaBoost, Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine was used to predict the names. The results clearly demonstrate that the classification accuracy of all classifiers studied in this paper improved when PCA was used to select features as compared to selecting features without using PCA. The prediction of terrorist group names with PCA based feature reduction and the original features is carried out and the results are compared.

Terrorist Attacks against Concerts and Festivals: A Review of 146 Incidents in the Global Terrorism Database.

Mass gatherings are vulnerable to terrorist attacks and are considered soft targets with potential to inflict high numbers of casualties. The objective of this study was to identify and characterize all documented terrorist attacks targeted at concerts and festivals reported to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) over a 50-year period. The GTD was searched for all terrorist attacks against concerts and festivals that occurred world-wide from 1970 through 2019. Analyses were performed on temporal factors, location, target type, attack and weapon type, attacker type, and number of casualties or hostages. Ambiguous incidents were excluded if there was doubt about whether they were exclusively acts of terrorism. Chi-square tests were performed to evaluate trends over time and differences in attack types. In total, 146 terrorist attacks were identified. In addition to musical concerts, festivals included religious, cultural, community, and food festivals. With 53 incidents, South Asia was the most heavily hit region of the world, followed by the Middle East & North Africa with 25 attacks. Bombings and explosions were the most common attack types. The attacks targeted attendees, pilgrims, politicians, or police/military members who secured the concerts and festivals. This analysis of the GTD, which identified terrorist attacks aimed at concerts and festivals over a 50-year period, demonstrates that the threat is significant, and not only in world regions where terrorism is more prevalent or local conflicts are going on. The findings of this study may help to create or enhance contingency plans.

Terrorist Attacks Against COVID-19-Related Targets during the Pandemic Year 2020: A Review of 165 Incidents in the Global Terrorism Database.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic enabled a situational type of terrorism with mixed racist, anti-government, anti-science, anti-5G, and conspiracy theorist backgrounds and motives. The objective of this study was to identify and characterize all documented COVID-19-related terrorist attacks reported to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) in 2020. The GTD was searched for all COVID-19-related terrorist attacks (aimed at patients, health care workers, and at all actors involved in pandemic containment response) that occurred world-wide in 2020. Analyses were performed on temporal factors, location, target type, attack and weapon type, attacker type, and number of casualties or hostages. Ambiguous incidents were excluded if there was doubt about whether they were exclusively acts of terrorism. In total, 165 terrorist attacks were identified. With 50% of incidents, Western Europe was the most heavily hit region of the world. Nonetheless, most victims were listed in Southeast Asia (19 fatalities and seven injured). The most frequent but least lethal attack type concerned arson attacks against 5G telephone masts (105 incidents [60.9%] with only one injured). Armed assaults accounted for most fatalities, followed by assassinations. Incendiary and firearms were the most devastating weapon types. This analysis of the GTD, which identified 165 COVID-19-related terrorist attacks in 2020, demonstrates that the COVID-19 pandemic truly resulted in new threats for COVID-19 patients, aid workers, hospitals, and testing and quarantine centers. It is anticipated that vaccination centers have become a new target of COVID-19-related terrorism in 2021 and 2022.

An innovative color-coding scheme for terrorism threat advisory system

This research develops an innovative terror threat advisory system capable of visually communicating variations in the terrorism levels to policymakers or the public and forecasts future levels. Earlier attempts to create similar advisory systems by policymakers were either discontinued or lost their relevance due to a trust deficit in the system. We propose a novel approach for creating a color scheme and utilize it to develop an intuitive caterpillar diagram summarizing various stages of terrorism. It incorporates Global Terrorism Impact Scores for a nation or region using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Further, color transitions in the caterpillar diagram between consecutive periods mimic a Markovian process, thereby enabling us to develop the forecasting model. We successfully demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed caterpillar diagram and forecasting model for India, Iraq, and their respective regions. The forecasting model suggests that the aggressive terrorism stage depicted by red color and transient stages of ascent (yellow) and descent (cyan) are the most probable in these nations and their regions. The proposed caterpillar diagram is an innovative visualization approach to identify terrorism patterns, from which a Markovian forecasting model is developed to aid policymakers. Our approach applies to any event-based database like GTD. Finally, the caterpillar diagram is a domain-independent framework that can visualize variations in any univariate data series, thereby assisting in system monitoring.

Pediatric Casualties in Terrorist Attacks: A Semi-Quantitative Analysis of Global Events.

Terrorism remains a major threat and concern in many countries around the world. Pediatric populations represent approximately 30% of the world population, and in the event of a terrorist attack, can either be primary targets, to include the possibility of abduction, or unintended victims. They are unique in their vulnerabilities and, therefore, require special consideration. This study is a semi-quantitative, epidemiological analysis of all terrorism-related pediatric fatalities and injuries sustained from 1970-2019. Data collection was performed using a retrospective database search through the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Summaries of events including search terms associated with pediatric population were individually reviewed and those describing the deaths, injuries, or abductions were tallied. Of the over 200,000 terror events, 2,302 events met inclusion criteria. This represented 1.14% of total events which involved death, injury, or abduction. Of 2,032 events, a total of 2,275 pediatric fatal injuries (FI) were recorded, as well as 2,280 pediatric non-fatal injuries (NFI). The most common weapons used in all attacks involving the pediatric population were explosives (1,539 [66.8%]), firearms (543 [23.5%]), other (169 [7.3%]), and melee (83 [3.6%]). A total of 275 of the 2,032 events were related to abductions, with 71 cases involving the abduction of 10 individuals or more. Pediatric casualties in terrorist events represent a small proportion of overall victims. However, it should be understood that the pediatric population has unique vulnerabilities, and when directly impacted by terrorism, can have long-term physical and psychosocial sequelae, as well as a devastating emotional impact on the community.

Terrorist attacks against emergency departments

IntroductionEmergency departments (EDs) play an integral role in a community's response to disaster. Terrorist attacks targeting EDs have the potential to disrupt the emergency response apparatus. Understanding prior attacks against EDs can yield important lessons to mitigate the impact of future violence. MethodsIn this review, the authors used the Global Terrorism Database to conduct a search on terrorist attacks targeting EDs between 1970 and 2018. Using the search terms “doctor,” “nurses,” “hospital,” “healthcare,” “clinic,” “vaccinators,” and “vaccinations,” a total of 2322 healthcare-specific incidents were isolated. The database was further narrowed down to terrorist attacks targeting EDs, using the search terms “emergency,” “emergency department,” and “emergency ward.” ResultsA total of six attacks involving five countries were isolated. These attacks occurred between 1991 and 2016, with the majority involving the use of explosive devices, killing a total of 57 victims and leaving 26 wounded. ConclusionAttacks against EDs, while rare, have the potential to lead to loss of life through both the direct attack and subsequent disruptions to healthcare.

Extraction and Analysis of High Impact Attacks for Insights in Global Terrorism

Terrorism adversely impacts the investment decisions of multinational enterprises. This research proposes the iterative outlier analysis heuristic capable of utilizing a univariate attribute to extract high impact attacks (HIA) from a comprehensive and actively maintained global terrorism database (GTD). The two different univariate attributes used for HIA extraction were nkill (pure GTD univariate attribute) and global terrorism impact score (GTI-IS) (a derived composite attribute). Calendar year extraction of HIAs returns local point outliers, whereas taking whole dataset at once provides global point outliers. The nkill-based extraction resulted in 5 and 14 times more exclusive HIAs than GTI-IS in local and global point analysis, thereby establishing its superiority. Further, correspondence analysis using extracted HIAs demonstrated the affinity towards explosives in the Middle East & North Africa region, with Military and Business as preferred targets. Also, HIAs facilitated the geospatial visualization of terrorism hotbeds. Eliciting location-specific relationships from HIAs on weapon type and target type can assist in formulating better counterterrorism strategies. This study scrutinized the averaging out evaluation methodology of GTI ranking based on GTI-IS score. By equalizing terrorist attacks of distinct outcomes using an average score can induce bias among business decision-makers interested in a particular nation.

Separatism and Jihadism: Interaction in the Context of Terrorist Activity

According to the well-known concept of consequential waves of terrorism, proposed by American researcher David C. Rapoport, since 1979, the world has encountered a wave of religious terrorism. Religiously motivated terrorists are the most dangerous and cruel terrorists who continue to lead the world. All four terrorist groups responsible for 55 per cent of total deaths in 2019 are jihadists (Global Terrorism Index 2020). The Taliban, Boko Haram, ISIL, and Al-Shabaab all fight for the establishment of their own quasi-state entities within the borders of existent sovereign states. This political objective associates the jihadists with another ideological movement – separatist-terrorists – in Rapoport’s model. Despite apparent distinctions in ideological foundations and political agendas, these two movements are similar in their struggle for self-determination within the borders of sovereign states. In this article, we use data from the Global Terrorism Database to compare how these two ideological movements with similar political objectives influence each other in the area of terrorist activity. Having analysed and reviewed information about 3,617 terrorist organisations that committed at least one terrorist attack from 1970 to 2018, we check how jihadist and separatist-terrorist activities were interrelated and how this interrelation manifested itself in different countries.

Tracking the SDGs: A methodological note on measuring deaths caused by collective violence

As part of recording the progress toward promoting peaceful societies as envisioned in the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16, it is important to provide accurate estimates of violence-related deaths (SDG 16.1). These estimations face a number of methodological challenges, resulting in rather conservative estimates in the social sciences. In this article, we discuss SDG indicator 16.1.2 on conflict-related deaths, proposing its enlargement to cover different forms of collective violence. Various types of collective violence, their definition, measurement, and methods to combine them without double counting are reviewed. Comparing the Georeferenced Events Dataset (GED) to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) shows that events of armed conflict and terrorism overlap to a certain degree. Our argument is that merging data from different event databases can provide a more accurate account of collective violence. We augment the GED data on organized armed conflict with data on terrorism—as a result, our estimates of the numbers of collective violence-related deaths are indeed significantly higher than suggested by GED (one of the most widely used databases in the social sciences).

Predictors of successful terrorism incidents

ABSTRACT The research on predictors of successful terrorism incidents is scarce and warrants more scholarly attention to minimize the number of successful terrorist attacks. This study examined whether suicide attack, region, weapon type, attack type, target/victim type, and type of terrorist organization are predictors of successful terrorism incidents. The data contained global terrorism incidents that occurred between 1970 and 2019 and were obtained from the Global Terrorism Database (N = 154,289). The results of multivariate analyses obtained from the binary logistic regression test showed that successful terrorism is less likely to occur in North America but, when such attacks do occur, they are more likely to involve facility/infrastructure as the attack type and a firearm as the weapon type; target private citizens and property; and be committed by religious terrorist organizations. The findings of the study and its policy implications are discussed.

Assessing the relationship between terrorist attacks against ingroup or outgroup members and public support for terrorism.

Terrorist groups rely on constituency support for their long-term survival. Here, we examined the extent to which terrorists’ own activities are related with public opinion on terrorism. Specifically, we assessed whether more frequent and more costly terrorist attacks against the ingroup are associated with war weariness or retaliatory sentiments, thus, either weaker or stronger approval of terrorism. We further investigated if more frequent and costly attacks that target an outgroup predict higher levels of justification of terrorism. Lastly, we identified the timeframe during which domestic and outgroup terrorist attacks correlate with (lower or higher) public support. The analyses focused on Jordan (ingroup) and Israel (outgroup), over an 8-year period (2004–2011), drawing on data from the Pew Global Attitudes Survey and the Global Terrorism Database. Results showed that support for terrorism in Jordan decreased in 2005 and, again, in 2008. The frequency of terrorist attacks and fatality/injury rates in Jordan did not vary significantly during the study period. The number of attacks and fatalities/people injured in Israel, however, changed between 2004 and 2011. Cross-correlations of the time-series further demonstrated that the number of attacks and fatalities/people injured in Jordan was not related with the level of public approval of terrorism in the country. Importantly, and in line with the literature, the casualty rate in Israel was positively associated with support for terrorism in Jordan, in the next year. That is, there is evidence that more/less costly terrorist attacks on an outgroup can predict stronger/weaker public support for the tactic relatively quickly. Those findings provide insights for counter-terrorism measures.

Impact of Banditry on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

This study aims to examine the impact of banditry on Nigeria’s agricultural output with an emphasis on herdsmen attacks between 2014 and 2020. The study employs a quantitative research method, with the source of data being a secondary source. The proxies used for the independent variable are the total number of deaths resulting from pastoralists’ attacks, the total number injured by pastoralists, and the total number of internally displaced persons, while the agricultural output percentage of GDP was used to proxy the dependent variable. The data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, 2020, the Global Terrorism Database, 2020, and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center Database, 2022. The data was analysed using Auto-regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL). The results of the study show that as the number of deaths from herdsmen attacks increases the agricultural output decreases, while the number of injured from herdsmen attacks has no significant effect on the agricultural output. Furthermore, the results reveal that as persons become displaced internally, agricultural output rises. The study recommends that the government should provide more securities aid to the farming communities, provide adequate healthcare for these communities, and also help the internally displaced farmers and others to settle quickly to their new environment and provide them with adequate tools to engage effectively in agricultural activities.

The Role of Ideology in Terrorist Attack Intentions and Outcomes

ABSTRACT This study seeks to investigate whether ideological elements, namely that of audience and othering, are related to attack-level objectives and effects. Prior research has established a strong connection between ideological subscription and violent attack outcomes, but few studies have sought to examine the full spectrum of ideologies. Moreover, little empirical attention has been given to examining how ideological affiliation may correlate with violent intentions in terrorist attacks; namely, an actor’s intention to kill or commit a mass casualty incident. To address these research gaps, we pose the question: Is a U.S. terrorist attack’s ideological component correlated with its both intentions and outcomes? Utilizing a sample of 2,275 terrorist incidents from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), we examine our research question through a series of models with sensitivity checks using logistic regression and zero-inflated negative binomial analyses. In sum, our results are consistent with the premise that ideology does matter, particularly if this ideology involves a defined other.

Democratization of terrorism: an analysis of vehicle-based terrorist events

ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic inspired social changes that promote outdoor activities including eating at restaurants, which may linger in a world hyperfocused on disease transmission prevention, increasing the vulnerabilities to vehicle-based...

Terrorist Attacks Against Performing Arts Venues: Global Trends and Characteristics Spanning 50 Years.

In fostering community and culture through entertainment in shared spaces, performing arts venues have also become targets of terrorism. A greater understanding of these attacks is needed to assess the risk posed to different types of venues, to inform medical disaster preparedness, to anticipate injury patterns, and to reduce preventable deaths. A search of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was conducted from the year 1970 through 2019. Using pre-coded variables for target/victim type and target subtype, attacks involving "business" and "entertainment/cultural/stadium/casino" were identified. Attacks targeting performing arts venues were selected using the search terms "theater," "theatre," "auditorium," "center," "hall," "house," "concert," "music," "opera," "cinema," and "movie." Manual review by two authors was performed to confirm appropriateness for inclusion of entries involving venues where the primary focus of the audience was to view a performance. Descriptive statistics were performed using R (version 3.6.1). A total of 312 terrorist attacks targeting performing arts venues were identified from January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2019. Two-hundred nine (67.0%) attacks involved cinemas or movie theaters, 80 (25.6%) involved unspecified theaters, and 23 (7.4%) specifically targeted live music performance venues. Two-hundred thirty-four (75.0%) attacks involved a bombing or explosion, 50 (16.0%) damaged a facility or infrastructure, and 17 (5.4%) included armed assault. Perpetrators used explosives in 234 (75.0%) attacks, incendiary weapons in 50 (16.0%) attacks, and firearms in 19 (6.1%) attacks. In total, attacks claimed the lives of 1,307 and wounded 4,201 persons. Though fewer in number, attacks against music venues were responsible for 29.4% of fatalities and 35.0% of those wounded, and more frequently involved the use of firearms. Among 95 attacks falling within the highest quartile for victims killed or wounded (>two killed and/or >ten wounded), 83 (87.4%) involved explosives, seven (7.4%) involved firearms, and three (3.2%) involved incendiary methods. While uncommon, terrorist attacks against performing arts venues carry the risk for mass casualties, particularly when explosives and firearms are used.

The Belt and Road Initiative, Economic Development and Terrorism Reduction: An Institutional Theory

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) brings opportunities for the participating countries to improve their institutional environment. Based on the Global Terrorism Database, this paper constructs a panel data covering 152 countries from 2004 to 2018, and analyzes the policy effects of the BRI on reducing terrorist activities using the Generalized Difference-in-Differences model. The main findings include: firstly, the BRI can supplement the local political institution directly, and not only reduces the number of terrorist attacks, but also reduces the casualty of such attacks. Secondly, the policy effect of the BRI can be achieved through the improvement of the economic institutions, such as trade, FDI, digital infrastructure and economic growth. Finally, the policy effect of the BRI is weakened in the countries having relatively poorer social institutions, such as when the countries are at civil wars. This paper contributes to the research on the institutional theory and country specific advantage theory, and provides practical guidance for firms doing international business in the BRI participating countries with weak institutions.

A Lone Wolf vs. an Affiliated Terrorist

The global terrorism database (GTD) shows that 3.5% of the total terror attacks across the world between 1970 to 2019 were targeted at tourists. A terror attack can be perpetrated by either a lone wolf or an affiliated terrorist. The analysis of the GTD conducted in this study shows that a terror attack targeted at tourists is 4.3 times more likely to have been perpetrated by a lone wolf than by affiliated terrorists. Since lone wolves operate individually, this finding implies that access control measures at tourist centers must regard individuals such as hawkers, newspaper vendors, freelance journalists, etc. who come around to do various businesses around tourists as potential terrorists until proven otherwise. Since lone wolves do not work for a terror group, tourist attraction centers located in the regions, territories, and countries with no presence of terror groups must not relax their counterterrorism control measures under the impression that they are safe from terror attacks.