Global Terrorism Database Research Articles

An Efficient Deep Learning Framework for Optimized Event Forecasting

There have been several catastrophic events that have impacted multiple economies and resulted in thousands of fatalities, and violence has generated a severe political and financial crisis. Multiple studies have been centered around the artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) approaches that are most widely used in practice to detect or forecast violent activities. However, machine learning algorithms become less accurate in identifying and forecasting violent activity as data volume and complexity increase. For the prediction of future events, we propose a hybrid deep learning (DL)-based model that is composed of a convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and an attention layer to learn temporal features from the benchmark the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). The GTD is an internationally recognized database that includes around 190,000 violent events and occurrences worldwide from 1970 to 2020. We took into account two factors for this experimental work: the type of event and the type of object used. The LSTM model takes these complex feature extractions from the CNN first to determine the chronological link between data points, whereas the attention model is used for the time series prediction of an event. The results show that the proposed model achieved good accuracies for both cases—type of event and type of object—compared to benchmark studies using the same dataset (98.1% and 97.6%, respectively).

What drives the frequency of terrorist attacks? Thematic analysis of a rapid evidence assessment

ABSTRACT Understanding how and why the frequency of terrorist attacks can change is clearly a critical issue and an increasing amount of research has focused on this subject. This article presents the results of a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) of research published from 2012 to 2022 on this area. A total of 50 articles were identified which met the review’s criteria thresholds. Thematic analysis identified eight core themes across the research which affected the frequency of terrorist attacks: Regime Type and Domestic Politics; Economic factors; Military Intervention and Foreign Fighters; Migration; Climate Change and Natural Disasters; Terrorist Organisational Qualities; Terrorist Target Selection Practices; and Media Coverage. The article also considers the research methods used across the studies and, in particular, reflects on the heavy reliance placed on the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Potential implications in terms of policy as well as recommended avenues for future research are discussed.

Transitioning to Peace in Northern Ireland: Before and After the Belfast-Good Friday Agreement 1998

ABSTRACT The 1998 Belfast-Good Friday Agreement (GFA), credited with bringing peace to Northern Ireland, has celebrated its 25-year anniversary. The key research question in this paper is how have the changes made under the GFA impacted on the nature of terrorism in Northern Ireland? To address this question, we examine terrorist attacks before and after the Agreement using statistics from the Global Terrorism Database. The research finds: a significant reduction in both Republican and Loyalist terrorism but a residual of groups, particularly republican splinter organisations, intent on continuing their campaign of violence. Post GFA, in relative terms, there is an increase in attacks against private persons and property and a decrease in attacks against the military. Terrorists are now more likely to use explosives than firearms but with a reduced predicted likelihood of success. The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has responded with attempts to normalise policing. Consolidating peace goes well beyond the realms of policing and involves tackling the wider issues of power sharing politics, socio-economic inequalities, and societal divisiveness.

Terror and taxes: how attacks impact corporate tax avoidance

Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of terrorist attacks on tax avoidance. Further, the authors identify the possible channel leading to our main result and examine the role of social pressure. Design/methodology/approach Data pertaining to terrorist attacks within the USA are procured from the Global Terrorism Database. The final sample consists of 45,524 firm-year observations from 1993 to 2017. The methodology uses ordinary least squares regressions. Findings The authors find that firms located in close proximity to terrorist attacks (i.e. impact firms) significantly decrease their tax avoidance practices after the attacks. The authors further find that these impact firms are willing to pay more taxes post attack when their headquarters are located in higher social capital regions. Originality/value Studies have mainly focused on the macroeconomic effects of terrorism, and only recently have researchers shifted their focus to firm-level impacts. The authors provide strong evidence that extends the second line of the literature by exploring corporate tax activities attributed to terrorist events.

Risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks based on the Global Terrorism Database from 1970 to 2020

Risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks can assist enhance awareness of terrorism and give crucial information support for anti-terrorism efforts. This study utilizes quantitative approaches for the risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks. A total of 210,454 terrorist attacks that occurred worldwide from 1970 through 2020 were collected in the Global Terrorism Database, and 22 indicators related to the risk of terrorist attacks were selected. Then, the moment estimation theory and four comprehensive evaluation models were utilized to identify the top 10 riskiest terrorist attacks in the world. Furthermore, the five clustering analysis methods and three evaluation criteria were performed for the risk categorization of terrorist attacks, and the visual analysis was carried out using the kernel density estimation method. The research results have identified the top 10 riskiest global terrorist attacks, which were led by the September 11 terrorist attack event, along with their downward counterfactual events. The spatial distribution of global terrorist attack risk is primarily composed of four “turbulent cores” in the region of Central Asia, Middle East & North Africa, South Asia, and Central America & Caribbean. This study also provided insights and recommendations for anti-terrorism efforts. It has realized the risk assessment and categorization of terrorist attacks, aiding in the swift identification of its risk levels, and holds immense significance for safeguarding global national security and societal stability under new circumstances.

How Effective Are the Post-9/11 U.S. Counterterrorism Policies Within and Outside the United States?

This study examined the effectiveness of post-9/11 U.S. counterterrorism policies in preventing terror attacks and reducing casualties against American targets within and outside the United States. Monthly data on terrorism incidents from July 1981 through December 2020 were obtained from the Global Terrorism Database ( N = 462). The results of monthly interrupted time-series analyses showed that within the United States, after the 9/11 attacks, the number of attacks, the number of successful attacks, and the successful attack rate statistically significantly decreased in the first month following 9/11; then, no significant increase was observed in the trend of those outcomes. Outside the United States, after the 9/11 attacks, the trend of the number of successful attacks, the number of victims, the number of nonfatal victims, and the victim rate statistically significantly decreased. The results suggest that post-9/11 U.S. counterterrorism policies are effective both domestically and internationally. These findings and their policy implications are discussed.

An Empirical Study of Factors Influencing Drone Terrorist Attack Casualties

Recognizing the pivotal role of casualties as a metric for assessing the success of terrorist acts, this study endeavors to unravel the underlying factors shaping the casualty count in drone terrorist attacks across the globe. By applying Zero Negative Binomial Regression Analysis on data sourced from the Global Terrorism Database, we discern significant factors influencing the number of terrorist casualties. Our findings reveal the paramount importance of the target facility's significance, the attack type, the utilization of remote-controlled drones, the deployment of suicide drones equipped with explosive payloads, and the audacious strategy of swarming drone attacks.

Analyzing unmanned aerial vehicle (drone) attacks; a disaster medicine perspective

IntroductionUnmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), more commonly known as drones, have rapidly become more diverse in capabilities and utilization through technology advancements and affordability. While drones have had significant positive impact on healthcare and consumer delivery particularly in remote and austere environments, Violent Non-State Actors (VNSAs) have increasingly used drones as weapons in planning and executing terrorist attacks resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. We aim to analyze drone-related attacks globally against civilians and critical infrastructure for more effective hospital and prehospital care preparedness. MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1970 to 2020 to analyze the worldwide prevalence of drone-related attacks against civilians and critical infrastructure. Cases were excluded if they had insufficient information regarding a drone involvement, and if attacks were conducted by the government entities. The trends in the number of attacks per month, as well as the number of fatalities and injuries, were examined using time series and trend analysis. ResultsThe database search yielded 253 drone-related incidents, 173 of which met inclusion criteria. These incidents resulted in 92 fatalities and 215 injuries with civilian targets most commonly attacked by drones (76 events, 43.9%), followed by military (46 events, 26.5-%). The Middle East region was most affected (168 events, 97% of attacks) and the Islamic state of Iraq was the most common perpetrator (106 events, 61.2%). Almost all attacks were by explosive devices attached to drones (172 events, 99.4%). Time series with linear trend analyses suggested an upward trends of drone attacks by VNSAs, resulting in a greater number of injuries and fatalities, that became more frequent over the years. ConclusionsOvertime, there were upward trends of drone attacks, with higher lethality and morbidity. There were more injuries compared to fatalities. Most common region affected was the Middle East, and most common type of weapon employed by drone technology was explosive weapon. Investment in medical personnel training, security, and research is crucial for an effective mass-casualty incident response after the drone attacks.

Which Target is the Right Target? The Connection Between Terrorists’ Reputation Building and Target Selection

ABSTRACT Terrorist organizations do not attack random targets, but rather there is a strategic logic behind their target selection. Given that some common targets are associated with significant reputational costs, risks, and repercussions to terrorist organizations, what explains their targeting choices? Utilizing the Reputation of Terror Groups Dataset and including indicators from the Global Terrorism Database, we argue that targeting choices of terrorist organizations hinge on their reputational concerns with respect to their core constituents. Groups that invest in building a positive reputation in the eyes of their intended constituents are inclined toward concentrating a larger number of their attacks on hard targets, whereas groups that engage in reputationally-damaging actions that harm their constituents are more likely to go after civilian targets in larger numbers. Our results show that there is indeed a statistically significant and important relationship between reputation building and target selection by terrorist groups.

Machine Learning Techniques for Classification and Prediction of Terrorist Attack Types Using the Global Terrorism Database: A Review

Machine Learning Techniques for Classification and Prediction of Terrorist Attack Types Using the Global Terrorism Database: A Review

Endogenous and exogenous effects in self‐exciting process models of terrorist activity

A model based on the cluster process representation of the self‐exciting process model is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self‐exciting or cluster process model. The model's derivation and implementation details are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2015) from 2000 to 2013. Results regarding the practical interpretation and implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory are discussed.

Why insurgents engage in kidnappings: A coercive strategy in quasi-state governance and control?

Despite the common perception viewing kidnappings as means to generate ransom income and to obtain political concessions, it remains unclear why kidnappings are disproportionately employed by some violent insurgent groups but not by the others. Combining data from the Global Terrorism Database and the Big Allied and Dangerous Insurgency Dataset, we empirically examined this question with a theoretical focus on the possible role of insurgents’ performance of state-like functions, which may necessitate the use of kidnappings as an illicit form of ‘policing’ and punishment for social control. Our analyses mainly focused on three aspects of quasi-state activities: extraction; provision of public services; and warring activities. A series of negative binomial regressions were conducted to examine the effects of insurgents’ quasi-state activities on their kidnapping activities over a base model with only group capacity and resource factors. We found that the initial effects of territory-control and membership size disappeared when variables measuring quasi-state activities were included into the model. This suggests that the influence of group capacity and resources on kidnappings may be an indirect one via insurgents’ strategic need for coercive control when contending for quasi-state status.

Terrorist attacks in Türkiye: An analysis of counter-terrorism medicine

Aim: The objective of this research was to perform a counter-terrorism medicine analysis of terrorist attacks in Türkiye. Methods: This study is a retrospective cross-sectional research. The study population consisted of terrorist incidents that occurred in Türkiye, as provided by the START Global Terrorism Database for the period from 1970 to 2020. Various characteristics of terror attacks in Türkiye were analyzed and presented in tabular form. Results: Over the past 51 years, there have been a total of 4,485 terrorist incidents, with 91.2% reaching their intended targets as orchestrated by terrorist organizations in Türkiye. Of these incidents, 2,767 had detrimental economic impacts. Additionally, 17,570 individuals experienced adverse medical effects. Among the 81 provinces in Turkey, Istanbul witnessed the highest number of terrorist incidents and suffered the most significant medical consequences. Conclusion: Türkiye has been significantly impacted by terrorist incidents over the past fifty years especially within the last decade, particularly in metropolitan provinces like Istanbul. These events have negatively affected both the health and economic well-being of many individuals. In response, while the country has implemented various security measures and preparedness strategies to mitigate such incidents, there is also a critical need to improve the readiness of healthcare services to effectively handle the potential consequences of terrorist attacks. This includes advancing anti-terror medicine and tactical medicine capabilities, as well as strengthening mass casualty management systems. Such improvements will ensure a more effective and coordinated response to large-scale emergencies, ultimately saving lives and reducing the long-term impacts on society.

Public Health Responses to CBRN Terrorism in the Middle East and North Africa.

Escalating global challenges (such as disasters, conflict, and climate change) underline the importance of addressing Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) terrorism for sustainable public health strategies. This study aims to provide a comprehensive epidemiological analysis of CBRN incidents in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, emphasizing the necessity of sustainable responses to safeguard healthcare infrastructures. Utilizing a retrospective approach, this research analyzes data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) covering the period from 2003 to 2020. The study focuses on examining the frequency, characteristics, and consequences of CBRN incidents in the MENA region to identify patterns and trends that pose significant challenges to public health systems. The analysis revealed a significant clustering of CBRN incidents in Iraq and Syria, with a predominant involvement of chemical agents. These findings indicate the extensive impact of CBRN terrorism on healthcare infrastructures, highlighting the challenges in providing immediate health responses and the necessity for long-term recovery strategies. The study underscores the need for improved healthcare preparedness, robust emergency response systems, and the development of sustainable public health policies. Advocating for international collaboration, the research contributes to the strategic adaptation of healthcare systems to mitigate the impacts of CBRN terrorism, ensuring preparedness for future incidents in the MENA region and beyond.

Analyzing Global Terrorism Database for Identification of Terrorist Group

Analyzing Global Terrorism Database for Identification of Terrorist Group

Monsoon Marauders and Summer Violence: Exploring the Spatial Relationship between Climate Change and Terrorist Activity in India

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has been associated with a growing list of concerns in society today, often leaving more questions than answers. Thus, it is no surprise that questions are forming regarding the effects of climate change on global security, and more specifically, terrorism. India is the ideal case study for investigating the relationship between climate change and extremism, with average temperatures in the country reaching record highs as well as having 9,096 terrorist incidents occur during our 20-year study period between 1998 and 2017. Using daily temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the equator data from the National Climatic Data Center and terrorist incidents from the Global Terrorism Data base (GTD), this study assesses the spatial relationship between these factors through geospatial analyses. Suitability analyses indicate that all the climatological variables tested—temperature, precipitation, and elevation—relate to shifting patterns of terrorist activity. We also found that beyond intensity, seasons result in a shifting of patterns in terrorist behavior to other locales. Implications for the global community and for India specifically are discussed.

Comparing the top 100 attacks in the Global Terrorism Database: high injury rate versus high fatality rate attacks

Background Terrorist attacks have the potential to be mass casualty events, causing multiple injuries and deaths. High injury rate attacks will particularly place a high burden on emergency medical systems. This study aimed to assess if there is a difference between attacks with high injury rates and high fatality rates. Methods The top 100 terrorist events causing the highest number of fatalities versus the highest number of injuries were selected from the Global Terrorism Database. Analyses were performed on temporal factors, location, target type, attack and weapon type, and perpetrator type. Results The 9/11 attacks caused the highest number of both fatalities and injuries. With regards to injury rates, the sarin attacks in Tokyo, Japan ranked second. Events with high fatality rates were overrepresented in Sub-Saharan Africa, whereas events with high injury rates were predominant in the Middle East & North Africa. High fatality rates were most often associated with armed assaults and hostage takings. Bombings were responsible for the highest number of injuries. CBRN attacks were overrepresented in the top 100 injuries, and accounted for 11% of the incidents. Conclusion High injury rate incidents place a heavy burden on the health care system as the number of injuries is nearly ten times as high as the number of injuries in high fatality rate incidents. Epidemiological analysis of high impact terrorist events may contribute to counter-terrorism preparedness, to an increased focus on dealing with CBRN-events, and thus to a proper medical response to future terrorist events.

Terrorist attacks in Iran: A counter-terrorism medicine analysis.

Terrorism is a combined phenomenon, the concept of which is strongly affected by the spatial and temporal situation. Terrorist attacks can affect the demand for and delivery of healthcare services and often put a unique burden on the first responders, hospitals, and health systems. This study provides an epidemiological description of all -terrorist-related attacks in Iran from 1979 to 2020. Data were collected using a retrospective search through Global Terrorism Database (GTD). GTD was searched using internal database search functions for all incidents that occurred in Iran from January 1, 1979, to December 31, 2020. The target type, attack type, primary weapon type, perpetrator group, country where the incident occurred, and the number of fatalities and injuries were collected, and the results were analyzed. In total, 543 terrorist attacks were identified in the study period, which resulted in the fatality of 1,150 people and the injury of 3,792 people. It indicates 2.12 fatalities and 7,009 injuries per incident. Explosives were used in 301 attacks (55.63 percent), followed by incendiary weapons in 177 attacks (32.71 percent). The most significant types of attacks are bombings in 290 attacks (52.3 percent), followed by assassination in 99 attacks (17.9 percent), and armed assaults in 81 attacks (14.6 percent). Due to a decreasing trend of terrorist incidents in Iran, we can state that national security and stability have improved in Iran. However, the development of security promotion policies and passive defense approaches can help prevent the occurrence of such incidents.

Terrorist attacks against healthcare facilities involving hostages.

The incidence of terrorist attacks against healthcare facilities has been increasing over recent years. In addition to direct attacks on physical structures, many attacks have involved taking hostages. Hospital and healthcare facilities remain historically underprepared for terrorist attacks, representing vulnerable locations. Yet, studies examining the frequency and reach of hostage-taking incidents within healthcare facilities are limited. A search of the Global Terrorism Database was performed. A total of 191,465 terrorist attacks were identified. The database search was narrowed down to healthcare-related terrorist attacks (2,322) and then manually analyzed to only include those incidents which involved hospitals and hostage-taking (64). Sixty-four attacks against hospitals involving hostage-taking were identified. A total of 91 victims were injured in these attacks, and 47 were killed. The attacks affected a total of 23 countries worldwide, conducted largely by unidentified terrorist organizations, with approximately half involving firearms. This study shows that terrorist attacks against healthcare facilities that involve -hostage-taking have increased in frequency over the past 10 years and have global reach. Systems may still be underprepared for this potentially increasing phenomenon and require preparedness plans with education and simulated practice in place. Healthcare facilities should consider mitigation strategies such as preparedness drills and additional education.

50 Years of terrorism in Belgium: a review of 121 incidents in the global terrorism database

Objectives Belgium is not only prone to inland terrorism but also attracts terrorist factions aiming at various political, diplomatic, military, and/or religious targets. This study aimed to identify and characterize all documented terrorist attacks in Belgium reported to the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) over a period of 50 years. Methods The GTD was searched for all terrorist attacks in Belgium between 1970 and 2019. Analyses were performed on temporal factors, location, target type, attack and weapon type, attacker type, and number of casualties or hostages. Results In 50 years, 121 incidents accounted for 80 confirmed fatalities and 498 injured people. Bombings and explosions were the most frequently identified attack type (46.3%), followed by assassination (16.5%), infrastructure damage (15.7%) and armed or unarmed assaults (14.0%). Governmental and diplomatic institutions were the most frequent target (24.0%). For those perpetrators the GTD did have enough information we saw a timely change from far left and separatist dominating the early decades to Jihadi groups in the last decade, while anti-semitic factions were active in every decade. Conclusion In contrast to other studies, this study did not show an increase over time. Left-wing perpetrators dominated the eighties. In 50 years of terrorist activity in Belgium, the health care system was spared. Devastating mass casualty attacks challenging the health care system are rare in Belgium.