Rise In Global Surface Temperature Research Articles

Uncertainties on projecting future cloud feedback and possible ways to address them

The issue of climate change is hotly debated in today's world. More attention is paid to climate-related issues, including global warming. It is accepted that clouds are responsible for the rise of global surface temperature. People have spent decades trying to develop climate models that are capable of more accurate cloud projections without getting the ultimate solution since clouds are complicated compounds. This review article focuses on clouds' role in global warming, the mechanisms of cloud warming the Earth's surface, uncertainties of cloud parameterizations, and some researches aiming at mitigating the uncertainties . This paper concluded that although advancements are made in adding new constraints and taking new observable variables, uncertainty remains. The majority of new methods and constraints reviewed in this paper are still limited to different extents. Therefore, more complete climate models that can be applied to more conditions and regions could be the direction for future studies in the field.

Human adaptation to heat in the context of climate change: A conceptual framework

Climate change is causing serious damage to natural and social systems, as well as having an impact on human health. Among the direct effects of climate change is the rise in global surface temperatures and the increase in the frequency, duration, intensity and severity of heat waves. In addition, understanding of the adaptation process of the exposed population remains limited, posing a challenge in accurately estimating heat-related morbidity and mortality. In this context, this study seeks to establish a conceptual framework that would make it easier to understand and organise knowledge about human adaptation to heat and the factors that may influence this process. An inductive approach based on grounded theory was used, through the analysis of case studies connecting concepts. The proposed conceptual framework is made up of five components (climate change, vulnerability, health risks of heat, axes of inequality and health outcomes), three heat-adaptation domains (physiological, cultural and political), two levels (individual and social), and the pre-existing before a heat event. The application of this conceptual framework facilitates the assistance of decision-makers in planning and implementing effective adaptation measures. Recognizing the importance of addressing heat adaptation as a health problem that calls for political solutions and social changes. Accordingly, this requires a multidisciplinary approach that would foster the participation and collaboration of multiple actors for the purpose of proposing effective measures to address the health impact of the rise in temperature.

Threat of Climate Change

The anthropogenic activities of mankind have led to an unprecedented rise in global greenhouse concentrations since the industrial revolution. The consequence of this unequivocal rise in global surface temperature has been witnessed over the last century and more so after 1970. The global surface temperature in the last twenty years (2001-2020) was 0.9°C higher than what was registered during 1850-1900 (IPCC, 2023). This has also been observed that the number of hot days every year has been on the increase when the temperature around touches 50°C. There are multiple reports which have predicted very hot summers across the globe in the coming days and the report further reveals that the total number of days when the temperature crossed 50°C in different parts of the world was 14 in the years between 1980 and 2009 whereas this rose to 26 days during 2010-2019. The year 2022 witnessed the hottest summer in many western and south-western European countries where the temperature was above 2.3°C above the pre-industrial average and this extraordinary temperature rise in different parts of Europe exacerbated many unimaginable things like a severe forest fire, drought, drying up of many water bodies and heat-related deaths.

Threat of Climate Change

The anthropogenic activities of mankind have led to an unprecedented rise in global greenhouse concentrations since the industrial revolution. The consequence of this unequivocal rise in global surface temperature has been witnessed over the last century and more so after 1970. The global surface temperature in the last twenty years (2001-2020) was 0.9°C higher than what was registered during 1850-1900 (IPCC, 2023). This has also been observed that the number of hot days every year has been on the increase when the temperature around touches 50°C. There are multiple reports which have predicted very hot summers across the globe in the coming days and the report further reveals that the total number of days when the temperature crossed 50°C in different parts of the world was 14 in the years between 1980 and 2009 whereas this rose to 26 days during 2010-2019. The year 2022 witnessed the hottest summer in many western and south-western European countries where the temperature was above 2.3°C above the pre-industrial average and this extraordinary temperature rise in different parts of Europe exacerbated many unimaginable things like a severe forest fire, drought, drying up of many water bodies and heat-related deaths.

Threat of Climate Change

The anthropogenic activities of mankind have led to an unprecedented rise in global greenhouse concentrations since the industrial revolution. The consequence of this unequivocal rise in global surface temperature has been witnessed over the last century and more so after 1970. The global surface temperature in the last twenty years (2001-2020) was 0.9°C higher than what was registered during 1850-1900 (IPCC, 2023). This has also been observed that the number of hot days every year has been on the increase when the temperature around touches 50°C. There are multiple reports which have predicted very hot summers across the globe in the coming days and the report further reveals that the total number of days when the temperature crossed 50°C in different parts of the world was 14 in the years between 1980 and 2009 whereas this rose to 26 days during 2010-2019. The year 2022 witnessed the hottest summer in many western and south-western European countries where the temperature was above 2.3°C above the pre-industrial average and this extraordinary temperature rise in different parts of Europe exacerbated many unimaginable things like a severe forest fire, drought, drying up of many water bodies and heat-related deaths.

Assessing the changes of precipitation extremes in Peninsular Malaysia

AbstractThe rise of global surface temperature due to warming climate is expected to increase the intensity and occurrence of extreme precipitation events. Previous studies in Southeast Asia revealed complex variations in changes of precipitation extremes. This study presents a spatial–temporal analysis on changes of precipitation extremes in Peninsular Malaysia by utilizing long‐term daily rainfall records at 64 observed stations during 1989–2018. The modified Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope tests were performed to detect the significance and magnitude of trends in eight extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. Statistically significant increasing trends are observed for four of these extreme indices in the annual assessment. Spatial analysis demonstrates an obvious contrast between wet and dry regions in patterns of precipitation extremes. Seasonal analysis reveals the intensity and frequency of wet extremes are enhanced significantly during the northeast monsoon season. Significant correlations are found between precipitation extremes and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, particularly in the northern, eastern and southwest regions. Collectively, the evidence presented suggests that the occurrence of precipitation extremes in Peninsular Malaysia tends to be more frequent and intense over the year and is closely associated with the combined effects of tropical monsoon cycles and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

The Critical Role of βPdZn Alloy in Pd/ZnO Catalysts for the Hydrogenation of Carbon Dioxide to Methanol.

The rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the concomitant rise in global surface temperature have prompted massive research effort in designing catalytic routes to utilize CO2 as a feedstock. Prime among these is the hydrogenation of CO2 to make methanol, which is a key commodity chemical intermediate, a hydrogen storage molecule, and a possible future fuel for transport sectors that cannot be electrified. Pd/ZnO has been identified as an effective candidate as a catalyst for this reaction, yet there has been no attempt to gain a fundamental understanding of how this catalyst works and more importantly to establish specific design criteria for CO2 hydrogenation catalysts. Here, we show that Pd/ZnO catalysts have the same metal particle composition, irrespective of the different synthesis procedures and types of ZnO used here. We demonstrate that all of these Pd/ZnO catalysts exhibit the same activity trend. In all cases, the β-PdZn 1:1 alloy is produced and dictates the catalysis. This conclusion is further supported by the relationship between conversion and selectivity and their small variation with ZnO surface area in the range 6–80 m2g–1. Without alloying with Zn, Pd is a reverse water-gas shift catalyst and when supported on alumina and silica is much less active for CO2 conversion to methanol than on ZnO. Our approach is applicable to the discovery and design of improved catalysts for CO2 hydrogenation and will aid future catalyst discovery.

Climate and monetary policy: do temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures?

In the race towards economic growth, increased pollutant emissions have spurred the rise in global surface temperatures, intensifying the process of climate change. While the existing literature on the economic impact of climate-related variables has looked at outcomes such as growth, income, fiscal response, and poverty, the effect of temperature shocks on inflation has largely been neglected. This paper is an attempt to fill this lacuna. Indeed, we analyze the dynamic impact of temperature shocks on inflation, a key policy variable of most central banks. We use a panel-VAR method with fixed-effects and a sample of developed and developing countries over the period 1961–2014. Our results suggest that temperature shocks lead to inflationary pressures. Worryingly, and for developing countries in particular, we find that these effects persist several years after the initial shock. Our finding remained unaltered by various robustness checks. We show that these effects pose a threat to monetary policy making. We argue that central banks should pay more attention to temperature shocks.

Impacts of Large‐Scale Sahara Solar Farms on Global Climate and Vegetation Cover

AbstractLarge‐scale photovoltaic solar farms envisioned over the Sahara desert can meet the world's energy demand while increasing regional rainfall and vegetation cover. However, adverse remote effects resulting from atmospheric teleconnections could offset such regional benefits. We use state‐of‐the‐art Earth‐system model simulations to evaluate the global impacts of Sahara solar farms. Our results indicate a redistribution of precipitation causing Amazon droughts and forest degradation, and global surface temperature rise and sea‐ice loss, particularly over the Arctic due to increased polarward heat transport, and northward expansion of deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere. We also identify reduced El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Niño variability and enhanced tropical cyclone activity. Comparison to proxy inferences for a wetter and greener Sahara ∼6,000 years ago appears to substantiate these results. Understanding these responses within the Earth system provides insights into the site selection concerning any massive deployment of solar energy in the world's deserts.

Prospect and potential of biomass power to mitigate climate change: A case study in India

Biomass has often been regarded as a promising renewable energy resource to mitigate climate change. However, what will be the impact on global surface temperature if biomass replace fossil fuel remain unclear. This paper, through a case study in Uttar Pradesh, India address this issue by assessing biomass resource potential to reduce fossil fuel demand and mitigate climate change. Impact of biomass power related GHG emissions on global surface temperature is estimated using the Absolute Global Temperature change Potential (AGTP) climate metric. Uttar Pradesh can produce 71 Mt surplus biomass annually, equivalent to 7298 MW power. Power density of biomass range between 0.10 and 0.25 Wm-2. Significant amount of GHG emissions reduction is possible if biomass replace fossil fuel as a power source in the region. Annual GHG emissions associated with 1 MWh of power derived from coal, natural gas and biomass would cause 4.10 × 10−7, 2.40 × 10−7 and 1.25 × 10−7 mK rise in global surface temperature, 100 years after an initial emission, indicating potential of biomass power to mitigate climate change. Variation in spatio-temporal distribution and low power density could be delimiting factors in large-scale deployment of biomass power.

Impact of climate warming on carbon metabolism and on morphology of invasive and native aquatic plant species varies between spring and summer

The rise of global surface temperature by between 1.2°C and 4°C by 2100 is expected to affect freshwater ecosystems and the growth of aquatic plants. By extending the distribution range of invasive macrophytes, climate warming could increase their management costs. The aim of this study was to test the impact of a 3°C warming in spring and in summer on the morphology and physiology of two native species (Mentha aquatica, Myosotis scorpioides) and two invasive species (Ludwigia hexapetala, Myriophyllum aquaticum) under controlled conditions. Our study showed that the increase of spring temperature induced morphological modifications for all species, while a 3°C warming induced changes in carbohydrates composition for native species in spring, and modification of carbohydrate content for invasive species at both seasons. Patterns of carbohydrate content group the two invasive species together, possibly highlighting common physiological mechanisms. Moreover, the increase of spring temperature favoured the apical and/or lateral growth solely for invasive species. Hence, the invasive species specific response to warming suggests that higher temperature may favour their growth in spring, which might allow them to colonise the water column earlier than natives. This competitive advantage could affect aquatic ecosystems functioning and biodiversity in the coming years.

The rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers

Researchers have quantified the contributions of industrialized and developing nations’ historical emissions to global surface temperature rise. Recent findings that nearly two-thirds of total industrial CO2 and CH4 emissions can be traced to 90 major industrial carbon producers have drawn attention to their potential climate responsibilities. Here, we use a simple climate model to quantify the contribution of historical (1880–2010) and recent (1980–2010) emissions traced to these producers to the historical rise in global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level. Emissions traced to these 90 carbon producers contributed ∼57% of the observed rise in atmospheric CO2, ∼42–50% of the rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST), and ∼26–32% of global sea level (GSL) rise over the historical period and ∼43% (atmospheric CO2), ∼29–35% (GMST), and ∼11–14% (GSL) since 1980 (based on best-estimate parameters and accounting for uncertainty arising from the lack of data on aerosol forcings traced to producers). Emissions traced to seven investor-owned and seven majority state-owned carbon producers were consistently among the top 20 largest individual company contributors to each global impact across both time periods. This study lays the groundwork for tracing emissions sourced from industrial carbon producers to specific climate impacts and furthers scientific and policy consideration of their historical responsibilities for climate change.

Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period

AbstractThe United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process agreed in Paris to limit global surface temperature rise to “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.” But what period is preindustrial? Somewhat remarkably, this is not defined within the UNFCCC’s many agreements and protocols. Nor is it defined in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in the evaluation of when particular temperature levels might be reached because no robust definition of the period exists. Here we discuss the important factors to consider when defining a preindustrial period, based on estimates of historical radiative forcings and the availability of climate observations. There is no perfect period, but we suggest that 1720–1800 is the most suitable choice when discussing global temperature limits. We then estimate the change in global average temperature since preindustrial using a range of approaches based on observations, radiative forcings, global climate model simulations, and proxy evidence. Our assessment is that this preindustrial period was likely 0.55°–0.80°C cooler than 1986–2005 and that 2015 was likely the first year in which global average temperature was more than 1°C above preindustrial levels. We provide some recommendations for how this assessment might be improved in the future and suggest that reframing temperature limits with a modern baseline would be inherently less uncertain and more policy relevant.

Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300–700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models

We analyse a large number of multi-century pre-industrial control simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to investigate relationships between: net top-of-atmosphere radiation (TOA), globally averaged surface temperature (GST), and globally integrated ocean heat content (OHC) on decadal timescales. Consistent with previous studies, we find that large trends (∼0.3 K dec−1) in GST can arise from internal climate variability and that these trends are generally an unreliable indicator of TOA over the same period. In contrast, trends in total OHC explain 95% or more of the variance in TOA for two-thirds of the models analysed; emphasizing the oceans’ role as Earth’s primary energy store. Correlation of trends in total system energy (TE ≡ time integrated TOA) against trends in OHC suggests that for most models the ocean becomes the dominant term in the planetary energy budget on a timescale of about 12 months. In the context of the recent pause in global surface temperature rise, we investigate the potential importance of internal climate variability in both TOA and ocean heat rearrangement. The model simulations suggest that both factors can account for O (0.1 W m−2) on decadal timescales and may play an important role in the recently observed trends in GST and 0–700 m (and 0–1800 m) ocean heat uptake.

Pause for thought

The recent slowdown (or 'pause') in global surface temperature rise is a hot topic for climate scientists and the wider public. We discuss how climate scientists have tried to communicate the pause and suggest that 'many-to-many' communication offers a key opportunity to directly engage with the public.

COSMIC-RAY-DRIVEN REACTION AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF HALOGENATED MOLECULES: CULPRITS FOR ATMOSPHERIC OZONE DEPLETION AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4and HCFCs), CO2, total O3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O3depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O3loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 ~ 25 % of the Antarctic O3hole is found, while no recovery of O3loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO2concentration during 1850–1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96–0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970–2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of ~0.6°C in 1970–2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 ~ 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 ~ 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O3hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

On Atmospheric-Oceanic-Land Temperature Variability and Trends

The reported overall rise in global surface temperatures since the latter 19th Century is viewed largely as an atmospheric phenomena. However, we show that the global ocean is an important component in determining global surface temperatures. Via an empirical, mathematical methodology, we reveal the intrinsic modes of variability of planetary temperatures over the past 160 years, and find periods of cooling and warming, with multiple modes of variability; seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, multi-decadal and an overall warming trend. Our calculated overall rate of warming differs significantly from the estimate of the Intergovernmental Program on Climate Change, as well as the Nongovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We also investigate the modes of variability of recognized climate factors, and find a previously unreported 140 year cycle in two climate system data sets. A relatively large amplitude 60 - 70 year cycle mode appears in all of the climate factors, and may be related to the time scale of the oceanic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This and other oceanic features may modulate global surface temperatures. An empirical relationship between fossil fuel burning and the global surface temperature anomaly time series overall trend emerges from our reduction of the non-stationary, non-linear data.

From Granger causality to long-term causality: Application to climatic data

Quantitative characterization of interaction between processes from time series is often required in different fields of natural science including geophysics and biophysics. Typically, one estimates "short-term" influences, e.g., the widely used Granger causality is defined via one-step-ahead predictions. Such an approach does not reveal how strongly the "long-term" behavior of one process under study is affected by the others. To overcome this problem, we introduce the concept of long-term causality, which extends the concept of Granger causality. The long-term causality is estimated from data via empirical modeling and analysis of model dynamics under different conditions. Apart from mathematical examples, we apply both approaches to find out how strongly the global surface temperature (GST) is affected by variations in carbon dioxide atmospheric content, solar activity, and volcanic activity during the last 150 years. Influences of all the three factors on GST are detected with the Granger causality. However, the long-term causality shows that the rise in GST during the last decades can be explained only if the anthropogenic factor (CO2) is taken into account in a model.

The Use of Indices to Identify Changes in Climatic Extremes

Changes in the frequencies of extremes are investigated by a variety of methods using daily temperature data from the British Isles, and monthly 5° latitude x 5° longitude grid-box temperatures over the land and marine regions of the world. The 225 year long daily Central England Temperature record shows no significant increase in very warm days in recent years but there is a marked decrease in the frequency of very cold days. Thus the rise in temperature in the last two decades is principally associated with a reduction in very cold days. Temperatures on days with particular wind circulation or pressure pattern types over the British Isles show multidecadal variations. Analyses using monthly gridded temperature data around the world since 1951 indicate that the recent rise in global surface temperatures is accompanied both by reductions in the areas affected by extremely cool temperatures and by increases in the areas with extremely wann temperatures.