Probability of detection (POD) is an acknowledged mean of evaluation for many investigations aiming at detecting some specific property of a subject of interest. For instance, it has had many applications for Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE), aimed at identifying defects within structural architectures, and can easily be used for structural health monitoring (SHM) systems, meant as a compact and more integrated evolution of the former technology. In this paper, a probability of detection analysis is performed to estimate the reliability of an SHM system, applied to a wing box composite spar for bonding line quality assessment. Such a system is based on distributed fiber optics deployed on the reference component at specific locations for detecting strains; the attained data are then processed by a proprietary algorithm whose capability was already tested and reported in previous works, even at full-scale level. A finite element (FE) model, previously validated by experimental results, is used to simulate the presence of damage areas, whose effect is to modify strain transfer between adjacent parts. Numerical data are used to verify the capability of the SHM system in revealing the presence of the modeled physical discontinuities with respect to a specific set of loads, running along the beam up to cover its complete extension. The POD is then estimated through the analysis of the collected data sets, wide enough to assess the global SHM system performance. The results of this study eventually aim at improving the current strategies adopted for SHM for bonding analysis by identifying the intimate behavior of the system assessed at the date. The activities herein reported have been carried out within the RESUME project.