Global SST Research Articles

Long-term behaviors of two versions of FGOALS2 in preindustrial control simulations with implications for 20th century simulations

Climate drift in preindustrial control (PICTL) simulations can lead to spurious climate trends and large uncertainties in historical and future climate simulations in coupled models. This study examined the longterm behaviors and stabilities of the PICTL simulations in the two versions of FGOALS2 (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model Version 2), which have been submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). As verified by examining time series of thermal fields and their linear trends, the PICTL simulations showed stable long-term integration behaviors and no obvious climate drift [the magnitudes of linear trends of SST were both less than 0.04°C (100 yr)−1] over multiple centuries. The changed SSTs in a century (that corresponded to the linear trends) were less than the standard deviations of annual mean values, which implied the internal variability was not affected. These trend values were less than 10% of those of global averaged SST from observations and historical runs during the periods of slow and rapid warming. Such stable long-term integration behaviors reduced the uncertainty of the estimation of global warming rates in the historical and future climate projections in the two versions of FGOALS2. Compared with the trends in the Northern Hemisphere, larger trends existed in the SST and sea ice extents at the middle to high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH). To estimate the historical and future climate trends in the SH or at some specific regions in FGOALS2, corrections needed to be carried out. The similar long-term behaviors in the two versions of FGOALS2 may be attributed to proper physical processes in the ocean model.

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system model, Spectral Version 2: FGOALS-s2

The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2) was used to simulate realistic climates and to study anthropogenic influences on climate change. Specifically, the FGOALS-s2 was integrated with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to conduct coordinated experiments that will provide valuable scientific information to climate research communities. The performances of FGOALS-s2 were assessed in simulating major climate phenomena, and documented both the strengths and weaknesses of the model. The results indicate that FGOALS-s2 successfully overcomes climate drift, and realistically models global and regional climate characteristics, including SST, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation. In particular, the model accurately captures annual and semi-annual SST cycles in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the main characteristic features of the Asian summer monsoon, which include a low-level southwestern jet and five monsoon rainfall centers. The simulated climate variability was further examined in terms of teleconnections, leading modes of global SST (namely, ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO), and changes in 19th–20th century climate. The analysis demonstrates that FGOALS-s2 realistically simulates extra-tropical teleconnection patterns of large-scale climate, and irregular ENSO periods. The model gives fairly reasonable reconstructions of spatial patterns of PDO and global monsoon changes in the 20th century. However, because the indirect effects of aerosols are not included in the model, the simulated global temperature change during the period 1850–2005 is greater than the observed warming, by 0.6°C. Some other shortcomings of the model are also noted.

The influence of regional SSTs on the interdecadal shift of the East Asian summer monsoon

East Asia has experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift since the late 1970s. This shift was accompanied by a decadal change of global SST. Previous studies have suggested that the decadal shift of global SST background status played a substantial role in such a climatic shift. However, the individual roles of different regional SSTs remain unclear. In this study, we investigated these roles using ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model, GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) AM2. Two kinds of ensembles were performed. The first was a control ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs. The second was an experimental ensemble in which the model was driven with the observed climatological SSTs plus interdecadal SST background shifts in separate ocean regions. The results suggest that the SST shift in the tropics exerted more important influence than those in the extratropics, although the latter contribute to the shift modestly. The variations of summer monsoonal circulation systems, including the South Asian High, the West Pacific Subtropical High, and the lower-level air flow, were analyzed. The results show that, in comparison with those induced by extratropical SSTs, the shifts induced by tropical SSTs bear more similarity to the observations and to the simulations with global SSTs prescribed. In particular, the observed SST shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean, rather than the Indian Ocean, contributed significantly to the shift of East Asian summer monsoon since the 1970s.

Atlantic Warm-Pool Variability in the IPCC AR4 CGCM Simulations

Abstract This study investigates Atlantic warm pool (AWP) variability in the twentieth century and preindustrial simulations of coupled GCMs submitted to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In the twentieth-century simulations, most coupled models show very weak AWP variability, represented by an AWP area index, because of the cold SST bias in the AWP. Among the IPCC models, a higher AWP SST index corresponds to increased net downward shortwave radiation and decreased low-level cloud fraction during the AWP peak season. This suggests that the cold SST bias in the AWP region is at least partly caused by an excessive amount of simulated low-level cloud, which blocks shortwave radiation from reaching the sea surface. AWP natural variability is examined in preindustrial simulations. Spectral analysis reveals that only multidecadal band variability of the AWP is significant in observations. All models successfully capture the multidecadal band, but they show that interannual and/or decadal variability is also significant. On the multidecadal time scale, the global SST difference pattern between large AWP years and small AWP years resembles the geographic pattern of the AMO for most coupled models. Observational analysis indicates that both positive ENSO phase and negative NAO phase in winter correspond to reduced trade winds in the AWP region. The westerly anomalies induced by positive ENSO and negative NAO lead to local heating and warm SST from March to May and February to April, respectively. This behavior as a known feature of anomalous AWP growth is well captured by only five models.

Spatio-temporal variability in Ebro river basin (NE Spain): Global SST as potential source of predictability on decadal time scales

Summary This paper investigates the spatial and temporal variability of streamflow in the Ebro river basin and its potential predictability. Principal Component Analysis applied to monthly streamflow series from 83 gauging stations distributed through the basin, reveals three homogeneous regions: Basque–Cantabrian, Pyrenees and Southern Mediterranean. Attending to this classification the main characteristic time scales of the maximum monthly streamflows are studied by Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA). Decadal variations in streamflow make particularly large contributions to year-to-year streamflow variance in stations placed in the Basque–Cantabrian and Southern Mediterranean regions, while for the Pyrenees flows the interannual contribution is more important. The predictability of the Ebro flow anomalies has been investigated using a combined methodology: at decadal time scales SST anomalies from several regions provide a significant source of predictability for the Ebro flow, while at interannual time scales autoregressive-moving-average modelling, applied to the time series previously filtered by SSA, is able to provide potential skill in forecasting. For gauging stations associated to the Basque–Cantabrian region significant correlations between the maximum monthly streamflow anomalies and a tripole-like pattern in the North Atlantic SSTs during the previous spring are found. This association is found maximum and stable for the tropical part of the pattern (approximately 0–20°N). For the gauging stations placed to the southeast of basin some influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is found. This method allows evaluating, independently, the decadal and interannual predictability of the streamflow series. In addition, the combination of both modelling techniques gives as result a methodology that has the capacity to provide basin-specific hydroclimatic predictions which vary (for the 1990–2003 validation period) between 62% for the Basque–Cantabrian region, 76% for the Southern Mediterranean and 81% for the Pyrenees. In summary, this work shows the existence of a valuable decadal and interannual predictability of the Ebro streamflow, a result which may be useful to water resources management.

Trend Singular Value Decomposition Analysis and Its Application to the Global Ocean Surface Latent Heat Flux and SST Anomalies

Abstract Given the complexity of trends in the actual climate system, distinguishing between different trends and different trend modes is important for climate research. This study introduces a new method called “trend singular value decomposition (TSVD) analysis,” which is designed for systematically extracting coupled trend modes, albeit small, by performing an eigenanalysis of the inverse-rank covariance matrix between two fields. Applications to simple time series models and annual mean surface latent heat flux (LHF) and SST data for 1958–2006 are presented and discussed. Results show that the TSVD analysis can capture different coherent trends into different leading modes. The first TSVD mode between the global LHF and SST anomalies, similar to the first conventional SVD mode, generally represents a large-scale increasing LHF trend induced by a warming SST trend; whereas, interestingly, unlike the second SVD mode that is mainly associated with the familiar ENSO, the second TSVD mode is mainly associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). TSVD analysis casts the (global) long-term and (Pacific) decadal trends into the leading two modes, respectively. Compared to SVD analysis, the advantages of the TSVD analysis in detecting coupled low-frequency modes are even more evident in the tropical Pacific (TP), where the coherent trend signals (i.e., the long-term trends and the decadal trends) are smaller than the ENSO-related signals. Thus, TSVD analysis performs better than SVD analysis when focusing on trends rather than on maximum covariance patterns, particularly on relatively small coherent trend patterns, such as the coupled long-term trends and decadal trends in the TP.

Robustness of SST teleconnections and precursory patterns associated with the Indian summer monsoon

This work attempts to reconcile in a common and comprehensive framework the various conflicting results found in the literature regarding Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall-Sea Surface Temperature (SST) relationships, especially the links with El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). To do so, we first examine the linear relationships between ISM rainfall and global SST anomalies during 1950–1976 and 1979–2006 periods. Our results highlight the existence of significant modulations in SST teleconnections and precursory patterns between the first (June–July, JJ) and second part (August–September, AS) of the monsoon. This JJ–AS rainfall dichotomy is more pronounced after the 1976–1977 climate regime shift and tends to blur the global ISM-ENSO signal during the recent period, leading to an apparent weakening of this relationship at the seasonal time scale. Although ISM rainfall in JJ and AS is still strongly linked to ENSO over both periods, the lead-lag relationships between ENSO and AS Indian rainfall have changed during recent decades. Indeed, ENSO variability in the preceding boreal winter has now a significant impact on rainfall variability during the second half of ISM. To evaluate in more details the impact of this JJ-AS dichotomy on the ISM-ENSO-IOD relationships, ISM correlations are also examined separately during El Nino and La Nina years. Results indicate that the early onset of El Nino during boreal spring causes deficient monsoon rainfall in JJ. In response to weaker monsoon winds, warm SST anomalies appear in the west equatorial IO, generating favorable conditions for the development of a positive IOD in AS. Local air-sea processes triggered by the SST anomalies in the eastern node of IOD seem, in turn, to have a more active role on AS rainfall variability, as they may counteract the negative effect of El Nino on ISM rainfall via a modulation of the local Hadley circulation in the eastern IO. The JJ–AS rainfall dichotomy and its recent amplification may then result from an enhancement of these IO feedbacks during recent El Nino years. This explains why, although El Nino events are stronger, a weakening of the ISM-ENSO relationship is observed at the seasonal scale after 1979. Results during La Nina years are consistent with this hypothesis although local processes in the southeast IO now play a more prominent role and act to further modulate ISM rainfall in AS. Finally, our results highlight the existence of a biennal rhythm of the IOD-ENSO-ISM system during the recent period, according to which co-occurring El Nino and positive IOD events tend to be followed by a warming of the IO, a wet ISM during summer and, finally, a La Nina event during the following boreal winter.

The recent trend of increasing precipitation in Sahel and the associated inter‐hemispheric dipole of global SST

AbstractAlthough the Sahel precipitation decreased during the 1970s, it has increased since the mid‐1980s. This trend shift also occurred throughout the world with weaker signatures than in Sahel. The Sahel trend shift was remarkably similar to the trend shift of the difference in SSTs between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere; that is, until the 1980s the NH SST had decreased relative to the SH SST, whereas after the 1980s this trend reversed. Concurrent with this shift were trend shifts in the NH‐SH contrast in atmospheric temperature and humidity and in inter‐hemispheric meridional winds around Sahel. It appears that the NH‐SH SST contrast determines the long‐term variation of precipitation over Sahel through the shift of inter‐hemispheric atmospheric circulations. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

AMIP GCM Simulations of Precipitation Variability over the Yangtze River Valley

Abstract Analysis of 26 simulations from 11 general circulation models (GCMs) of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II reveals a basic inability to simultaneously predict the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) precipitation (PrYRV) annual cycle and summer interannual variability in response to observed global SST distributions. Only the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and L’Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL) models reproduce the observed annual cycle, but both fail to capture the interannual variability. Conversely, only Max Planck Institute (MPI) simulates interannual variability reasonably well, but its annual cycle leads observations by 2 months. The interannual variability of PrYRV reveals two distinct signals in observations, which are identified with opposite subtropical Pacific SST anomalies in the east (SSTe) and west (SSTw). First, negative SSTe anomalies are associated with equatorward displacement of the upper-level East Asian jet (ULJ) over China. The resulting transverse circulation enhances low-level southerly flow over the South China Sea and south China while convergent flow and upward motion increase over the YRV. Second, positive SSTw anomalies are linked with westward movement of the subtropical high over the west-central Pacific. This strengthens the low-level jet (LLJ) to the south of the YRV. These two signals act together to enhance PrYRV. The AMIP II suite, however, generally fails to reproduce these features. Only the MPI.3 realization is able to simulate both signals and, consequently, realistic PrYRV interannual variations. It appears that PrYRV is governed primarily by coherent ULJ and LLJ variations that act as the atmospheric bridges to remote SSTe and SSTw forcings, respectively. The PrYRV response to global SST anomalies may then be realistically depicted only when both bridges are correctly simulated. The above hypothesis does not exclude other signals that may play important roles linking PrYRV with remote SST forcings through certain atmospheric bridges, which deserve further investigation.

Rotational atmospheric circulation during North Atlantic-European winter: the influence of ENSO

The dominant variability modes of the North Atlantic-European rotational flow are examined by applying a principal component analysis (PCA/EOF) to the 200 hPa streamfunction mid-winter anomalies (Jan–Feb monthly means). The results reveal that, when this norm is used, the leading mode (EOF1) does not correspond to the traditional North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, which appears in our analysis as the second leading mode, EOF2) but is the local manifestation of the leading hemispheric streamfunction EOF. The regression of this regional mode onto the global SST field exhibits a clear El Nino signature, with no signal over the Atlantic, while the associated upper height anomalies resemble the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH) pattern. East of North America, this TNH-like wavetrain produces a meridional dipole-like pattern at lower levels. Although in some ways this pattern resembles the NAO (EOF2), the dynamics of these two modes are very different in that only EOF2 is associated with a latitudinal shift of the North Atlantic stormtrack. Thus, the choice of the streamfunction norm in the EOF analysis allows the separation of two different phenomena that can produce similar dipolar surface pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic but that have different impact on European climate. These two modes also differ on their contribution to variability at lower levels: while NAO-EOF2 is mostly confined to the North Atlantic, TNH-EOF1 has a more annular, global character. At upper levels NAO-EOF2 also produces a global pattern but with no annular structure, reminiscent of the “circumglobal” teleconnection.

Tropical Oceanic Causes of Interannual to Multidecadal Precipitation Variability in Southeast South America over the Past Century*

Abstract Observations, atmosphere models forced by historical SSTs, and idealized simulations are used to determine the causes and mechanisms of interannual to multidecadal precipitation anomalies over southeast South America (SESA) since 1901. About 40% of SESA precipitation variability over this period can be accounted for by global SST forcing. Both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans share the driving of SESA precipitation, with the latter contributing the most on multidecadal time scales and explaining a wetting trend from the early midcentury until the end of the last century. Cold tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are shown to drive wet conditions in SESA. The dynamics that link SESA precipitation to tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are explored. Cold tropical Atlantic SST anomalies force equatorward-flowing upper-tropospheric flow to the southeast of the tropical heating anomaly, and the vorticity advection by this flow is balanced by vortex stretching and ascent, which drives the increased precipitation. The 1930s Pampas Dust Bowl drought occurred, via this mechanism, in response to warm tropical Atlantic SST anomalies. The atmospheric response to cold tropical Pacific SSTs also contributed. The tropical Atlantic SST anomalies linked to SESA precipitation are the tropical components of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. There is little evidence that the large trends over past decades are related to anthropogenic radiative forcing, although models project that this will cause a modest wetting of the climate of SESA. As such, and if the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation has shifted toward a warm phase, it should not be assumed that the long-term wetting trend in SESA will continue. Any reversal to a drier climate more typical of earlier decades would have clear consequences for regional agriculture and water resources.

Is There Any Teleconnection Between Surface Hydrology in Poland and El Niño/Southern Oscillation?

The objective of the work discussed in this paper was to seek possible links between surface hydrology in Southwestern (SW) Poland and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although the impact of ENSO on hydrology in Europe has been investigated by many researchers, no clear picture demonstrating spatial variability of such a teleconnection has yet been unequivocally reported. In particular, there is no comprehensive study on ENSO–streamflow links for Polish rivers. Herein, discharge time series from 15 sites located at lowland and mountain rivers in SW Poland and different ENSO indices are examined. They include atmospheric time series (axial component of atmospheric angular momentum, Southern Oscillation Index), oceanic indices (Nino 3.4 Index, Global SST Index), geodetic data (length-of-day), and the combined index (Multivariate ENSO Index). The data span the period from November 1971 to October 2006. On the basis of cross-correlation and wavelet analyses it was found that there is a weak but significant link between ENSO and surface hydrology in SW Poland. It is inferred that ENSO episodes may be among a few factors affecting winter and early spring discharges of rivers in SW Poland and may have a (probably limited) impact on snow-melt flood generation.

Non-stationarity of the signal and noise characteristics of seasonal precipitation anomalies

In order to improve seasonal-to-interannual precipitation forecasts and their application by decision makers, there is a clear need to understand when, where, and to what extent seasonal precipitation anomalies are driven by potentially predictable surface–atmosphere interactions versus to chaotic interannual atmospheric dynamics. Using a simple Monte Carlo approach, interannual variability and linear trends in the SST-forced signal and potential predictability of boreal winter precipitation anomalies is examined in an ensemble of twentieth century AGCM simulations. Signal and potential predictability are shown to be non-stationary over more than 80% of the globe, while chaotic noise is shown to be stationary over most of the globe. Correlation analysis with respect to magnitudes of the four leading modes of global SST variability suggests that interannual variability and trends in signal and potential predictability over 35% of the globe is associated with ENSO-related SST variability; signal and potential predictability are not significantly associated with SST modes characterized by a global SST trend, North Atlantic SST variability, and North Pacific SST variability, respectively. Results suggest that mechanisms other than SST variability contribute to the non-stationarity of signal and noise characteristics of hydroclimatic variability over mid- and high-latitude regions.

Removing ENSO-Related Variations from the Climate Record

Abstract An important question in assessing twentieth-century climate change is to what extent have ENSO-related variations contributed to the observed trends. Isolating such contributions is challenging for several reasons, including ambiguities arising from how ENSO itself is defined. In particular, defining ENSO in terms of a single index and ENSO-related variations in terms of regressions on that index, as done in many previous studies, can lead to wrong conclusions. This paper argues that ENSO is best viewed not as a number but as an evolving dynamical process for this purpose. Specifically, ENSO is identified with the four dynamical eigenvectors of tropical SST evolution that are most important in the observed evolution of ENSO events. This definition is used to isolate the ENSO-related component of global SST variations on a month-by-month basis in the 136-yr (1871–2006) Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST). The analysis shows that previously identified multidecadal variations in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans all have substantial ENSO components. The long-term warming trends over these oceans are also found to have appreciable ENSO components, in some instances up to 40% of the total trend. The ENSO-unrelated component of 5-yr average SST variations, obtained by removing the ENSO-related component, is interpreted as a combination of anthropogenic, naturally forced, and internally generated coherent multidecadal variations. The following two surprising aspects of these ENSO-unrelated variations are emphasized: 1) a strong cooling trend in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and 2) a nearly zonally symmetric multidecadal tropical–extratropical seesaw that has amplified in recent decades. The latter has played a major role in modulating SSTs over the Indian Ocean.

Observed Atmospheric Responses to Global SST Variability Modes: A Unified Assessment Using GEFA*

Abstract The authors present a comprehensive assessment of the observed atmospheric response to SST variability modes in a unified approach using the Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Analysis (GEFA). This study confirms a dominant atmospheric response to the tropical SST variability associated with ENSO. A further analysis shows that the classical response to ENSO consists of two parts, one responding to the tropical Pacific ENSO mode and the other to the tropical Indian Ocean monopole (IOM) mode. The Pacific ENSO generates a significant baroclinic Rossby wave response locally over the tropical Pacific as well as equivalent barotropic wave train responses remotely into the extratropics. The IOM mode forces a strongly zonally symmetric response throughout the tropics and the extratropics. Furthermore, modest atmospheric responses to other oceanic modes were identified. For example, the North Pacific SST variability mode appears to generate an equivalent barotropic warm SST-ridge response locally over the Aleutian low with significant downstream influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), whereas the North Atlantic tripole SST mode tends to force a local response on NAO. Finally, this pilot study serves as a demonstration of the potential utility of GEFA in identifying multiple surface feedbacks to the atmosphere in the observation.

The Role of the Sahara Low in Summertime Sahel Rainfall Variability and Change in the CMIP3 Models

Abstract Projections for twenty-first-century changes in summertime Sahel precipitation differ greatly across models in the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) dataset and cannot be explained solely in terms of discrepancies in the projected anomalies in global SST. This study shows that an index describing the low-level circulation in the North Atlantic–African region, namely, the strength of the low-level Saharan low, correlates with Sahel rainfall in all models and at the time scales of both interannual and interdecadal natural variability and of the forced centennial trend. An analysis of Sahel interannual variability provides evidence that variations in the Sahara low can be a cause, not just a consequence, of variations in Sahel rainfall and suggests that a better understanding of the sources of model discrepancy in Sahel rainfall predictions might be gained from an analysis of the mechanisms influencing changes in the Sahara low.

Drought-Induced Warming in the Continental United States under Different SST Regimes

Abstract The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (U.S. CLIVAR) Drought Working Group (DWG) recently performed a series of experiments in which a number of AGCMs were forced with different leading patterns of global SST variability. These experiments provide a unique opportunity to examine how different SST regimes affect temperature over the continental United States. Herein, the focus is on a particular aspect of June–August (JJA) near-surface air temperature: the temperature during relatively dry years for a given SST regime. For most of the models participating in the DWG experiments, a cold Pacific produces greater warming in the central United States during relatively dry years than a warm Pacific does for the following two separate reasons: (i) the cold Pacific leads on average, across all years, to drier conditions, and (ii) the particular evaporation regime induced by the cold Pacific enhances the impact of evaporation feedback on temperature, that is, the sensitivity of temperature to within-climate variations in moisture availability. These results are supported, to a large extent, by the observational record.

Drought reconstruction in the Qilian Mountains over the last two centuries and its implications for large-scale moisture patterns

We present a composite tree-ring chronology from two sites of Qilian Juniper (Sabina przewalskii) in the northwestern Qilian Mountains (QM), Northwestern China. Precipitation in June was found to be the main limiting factor for tree-growth. The tree rings are also significantly and positively correlated with June precipitation over large areas of the northern Tibetan Plateau (TP). The authors thus consider that the tree-ring based drought reconstruction from 1803–2006 is representative of a large area drought history. During the reconstruction period, persistent and severe dry epochs occurred in the 1820s–1830s, 1870s–1880s, 1920s, and 1950s–1960s, and persistent wet periods were found from 1803–1810s, 1890s–1920s, and 1970s–1980s. The severe dry and wet periods are similar to those found over the northeastern TP, indicating the potential linkages of the drought regimes between them. Comparison with global SST indicates that the drought variability is closely related to the tropical Pacific and Arctic Ocean SSTs, suggesting the connection of regional moisture variations to the Asian monsoon and westerly belt circulations, respectively.

Impact of global SST on decadal shift of East Asian summer climate

East Asia experienced a significant interdecadal climate shift around the late 1970s, with more floods in the valley of the Yangtze River of central-eastern China and more severe drought in North China since then. Whether global SST variations have played a role in this shift is unclear. In the present study, this issue is investigated by ensemble experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the GFDL AM2, since one validation reveals that the model simulates the observed East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) well. The results suggest that decadal global SST variations may have played a substantial role in this climate shift. Further examination of the associated atmospheric circulation shows that these results are physically reasonable.

Cause of the widening of the tropical belt since 1958

Previous studies have shown that the width of the tropical belt has been increasing since at least the late 1970s based on a variety of metrics. One such metric, the frequency of occurrence of a high‐altitude tropopause characteristic of the tropics, is used here to show that the observed widening of the tropics can be accurately replicated by an atmospheric general circulation model forced by the observed evolution of global SST and sea ice distributions as well as the direct radiative effects from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Contrasting this simulation with one forced by the observed SST and sea ice distributions alone reveals that the widening trend can be attributed entirely to direct radiative forcing, in particular those related to greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion. SST forcing causes no significant change in the width of the tropics, and even a contraction in some seasons.