Global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Research Articles

Increased policy ambition is needed to avoid the effects of climate change and reach carbon removal targets in Portugal

The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming hinges on forest carbon sequestration as a key in several national strategies. However, Portugal’s rising forest fire occurrences threaten its ability to meet ambitious 2030 and 2050 carbon sequestration targets. Considering fire and forest trends, this study aims to quantify whether Portugal can reach its carbon sequestration ambitions as stated in its 2030 and 2050 targets. We tested three national forest scenario extensions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) based on a dynamic model, simulating forest area and carbon sequestration related to future fire risk and policies of fire management, forest management, restoration of burnt areas, and climate change adaptation. The model projects a rapidly decreasing forest area under existing Portuguese policies (PT-SSP3), a slow decline under moderate policy improvements (PT-SSP2), and an almost stable forest area under long-term sustainable policy developments (PT-SSP1). In PT-SSP3, carbon sequestration will be reduced to 60% by 2050 compared to 2015, while it declines to about 85% and 90% under PT-SSP2 and PT-SSP1, respectively. It is still plausible to reach Portugal’s 2030 sequestration obligations under the EU’s Paris Agreement target under all three scenarios, while the Portuguese GHG neutrality target is not reached in the presented scenarios. Our four introduced policy areas (increasing focus on fire and forest management, forest restoration, and climate change adaptation of forest stands) must be supplemented by other policy strategies, such as reforestation.

Creating the Dutch One Health Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)

The world is changing, in terms of both climate and socio-economics. These changes have the potential to have a profound impact on the health of humans, animals and the environment, often grouped together as ‘One Health’. Humans, animals and the environment are closely interlinked and to determine realistic future vulnerabilities we must consider everything together. We need comprehensive scenarios which cover a broad range of variables affecting One Health. We developed a methodology to create national-level One Health scenarios based on the global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), which we applied to the Netherlands. We identified variables which should be included in such scenarios and gathered input from existing scenarios, stakeholder consultation and current plans and commitments. This information was combined to create detailed descriptions, which were used to assess the main health risks under each scenario. All the scenarios face similar challenges, for example an aging population, introductions of infectious diseases and rising sea-levels and extreme weather events; however, in some scenarios, they deal with these challenges much better than in others. The healthiest outcome was achieved when a policy of low greenhouse gas emissions was combined with a well-functioning society which looks after both its citizens and the environment. These scenarios can be used to analyse specific health risks and to consider options for mitigation and preparedness. Because they are national-level scenarios, they allow the local context, policies and customs to be accounted for and should be a valuable tool for protecting One Health in the future.

On Farmland and Floodplains—Modeling Urban Growth Impacts Based on Global Population Scenarios in Pune, India

Emerging megacities in the global south face unprecedented transformation dynamics, manifested in rapid demographic, economic, and physical growth. Anticipating the associated sustainability and resilience challenges requires an understanding of future trajectories. Global change models provide consistent high-level urbanization scenarios. City-scale urban growth models accurately simulate complex physical growth. Modeling approaches linking the global and the local scale, however, are underdeveloped. This work introduces a novel approach to inform a local urban growth model by global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to produce consistent maps of future urban expansion and population density via cellular automaton and dasymetric mapping. We demonstrate the approach for the case of Pune, India. Three scenarios are explored until 2050: business as usual (BAU), high, and low urbanization. After calibration and validation, the BAU scenario yields a 55% growth in Pune’s population and 90% in built-up extent, entailing significant impacts: Pune’s core city densifies further with up to 60,000 persons/km2, adding pressure to its strained infrastructure. In addition, 66–70% more residents are exposed to flood risk. Half of the urban expansion replaces agriculture, converting 167 km2 of land. The high-urbanization scenario intensifies these impacts. These results illustrate how spatially explicit scenario projections help identify impacts of urbanization and inform long-term planning.

How climate, landscape, and economic changes increase the exposure of Echinococcus Spp.

Echinococcosis is a global enzootic disease influenced by different biological and environmental factors and causes a heavy financial burden on sick families and governments. Currently, government subsidies for the treatment of patients with echinococcosis are only a fixed number despite patients' finical income or cost of treatment, and health authorities are demanded to supply an annual summary of only endemic data. The risk to people in urban areas or non-endemic is increasing with climate, landscape, and lifestyle changes. We conducted retrospective descriptive research on inpatients with human echinococcosis (HE) in Lanzhou hospitals and analyzed the healthcare expenditure on inpatient treatment and examined the financial inequalities relating to different levels of gross domestic product. The livestock losses were also estimated by infection ratio. The occurrence records of Echinococcus spp. composed of hospitalized patients and dogs infected in the Gansu province were collected for Ecological niche modeling (ENM) to estimate the current suitable spatial distribution for the parasite in Gansu province. Then, we imported the resulting current niche model into future global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios for estimation of future suitable habitat areas. Between 2000 to 2020, 625 hospitalized HE patients (51% men and 49% women) were identified, and 48.32 ± 15.62 years old. The average cost of hospitalization expenses per case of HE in Gansu Province was ￥24,370.2 with an increasing trend during the study period and was negative with different counties' corresponding gross domestic product (GDP). The trend of livestock losses was similar to the average cost of hospitalization expenses from 2015 to 2017. The three factors with the strongest correlation to echinococcosis infection probability were (1) global land cover (GLC, 56.6%), (2) annual precipitation (Bio12, 21.2%), and (3) mean temperature of the Wettest Quarter (Bio12, 8.5% of variations). We obtained a robust model that provides detail on the distribution of suitable areas for Echinococcus spp. including areas that have not been reported for the parasite. An increasing tendency was observed in the highly suitable areas of Echinococcus spp. indicating that environmental changes would affect the distributions. This study may help in the development of policies for at-risk populations in geographically defined areas and monitor improvements in HE control strategies by allowing targeted allocation of resources, including spatial analyses of expenditure and the identification of non-endemic areas or risk for these parasites, and a better comprehension of the role of the environment in clarifying the transmission dynamics of Echinococcus spp. Raising healthcare workers' and travelers' disease awareness and preventive health habits is an urgent agenda. Due to unpredictable future land cover types, prediction of the future with only climatic variables involved needs to be treated cautiously.

Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios

The potential for using findings from socio-technical energy transition (STET) models in integrated assessment models (IAMs) has been proposed by several authors. A STET simulation model called TEMPEST, which includes the influence of societal and political factors in the UK’s energy transition, is used to model three of the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at the national level. The SSP narratives are interpreted as inputs to TEMPEST, which drive scenario simulations to reflect varying societal preferences for mitigation measures, the level of political support for energy transition, and future economic and population trends. SSP1 and SSP2 come close to meeting UK net zero targets in 2050 but SSP5 does not reach net zero before 2080. An estimate of the total societal, political, and economic cost of scenarios indicates that while SSP1 achieves the best emissions reductions it also has the highest total cost, and SSP2 achieves the best ratio between rate of emissions reductions and total cost. Feasibility appears to be highest for SSP2 since it is the least different to historical precedent. Current UK government energy strategy is closer to the narrative in SSP5, however, which has the highest total cost and exceeds an estimated carbon budget by 32%. Three key TEMPEST findings are recommended for use in IAMs: (i) the uncertainty in emissions savings due to variability in political and societal support for energy transition, (ii) the influence of negative societal pushback to policies in achievement of expected policy outcomes, and (iii) the combined influence on energy service demand of disposable income, public willingness to participate, and user impacts from measures.

Combining socio-economic and climate projections to assess heat risk

The assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on climate projections without considering social changes. We project heat risks for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind of differences there are in heat vulnerability projections with different scenarios and scales, and (2) how the use of socio-economic scenarios influences heat risk assessments. We project a vulnerability index with seven indicators downscaled to the postal code area scale for 2050. Three different scenario sets for vulnerability are tested: one with five global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios; the second with three European SSPs (EUSSPs) with data at the sub-national scale (NUTS2); and the last with the EUSSPs but aggregated data at the national scale. We construct projections of heat risk utilizing climatic heat hazard data for three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and vulnerability and exposure data for five global SSPs up to 2100. In the vulnerability projections, each scenario in each dataset shows a decrease in vulnerability compared to current values, and the differences between the three scenario sets are small. There are evident differences both in the spatial patterns and in the temporal trends when comparing the risk projections with constant vulnerability to the projections with dynamic vulnerability. Heat hazard increases notably in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but a decrease of vulnerability especially in SSP1 and SSP5 alleviates risks. We show that projections of vulnerability have a considerable impact on future heat-related risk and emphasize that future risk assessments should include the combination of long-term climatic and socio-economic projections.

Co-development of East African regional water scenarios for 2050

Summary The development of and access to freshwater resources in East Africa is fundamental to the region's sustainable development goals. Following vision documents for regional development and working with local stakeholders, we developed water scenarios up to 2050 that inform the hydro-economic modeling analysis of the extended Lake Victoria Basin, the headwaters of the Nile River. Water scenarios that take an integrated approach to assessing the combined effects of climate change, land use, and increasing human water use suggest that the flow regime of the Nile may remain relatively stable. However, if this stability is to be achieved, while at the same time sufficient water is preserved for healthy freshwater ecosystems, a large fraction of water infrastructure must rely on advanced, often costly technologies and management. Interconnected analyses of both upstream and downstream water resources over time, guided by co-developed scenarios, are indispensable for planning sustainable water-development pathways.

Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany

In this study, we extend the global-scale Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to develop local SSPs as a tool to inform adaptation decisions (a so-called ‘climate service’) for the city of Flensburg, Germany. Flensburg experiences regular coastal flooding during storm events, which is expected to increase with sea-level rise (SLR). To develop robust adaptation strategies under the uncertainties of future SLR and socioeconomic development in the city, local socioeconomic scenarios can help explore plausible future socioeconomic conditions and how these conditions drive adaptation strategies. We employ a multi-scale co-production approach for developing such local scenarios. Using the global SSPs as boundary conditions, we construct local SSP narratives based on local SSP elements that we compile during the process. We integrate local stakeholder knowledge into the local SSPs in an iterative manner with the help of focus group discussions, a scenario workshop, and email feedback. This process results in four local SSP narratives that explore alternative trends in socioeconomic development in Flensburg and are embedded in developments at national to global scales. Due to their local relevance, the extended local SSPs can serve as a climate service to support Flensburg in developing adaptation plans to cope with the future impacts of SLR.

Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways

Significant effort has gone into identifying and assessing climate change impacts, often within tightly defined sectoral contexts or within specific administrative boundaries, for example in national adaptation plans. Interest is now growing among policy makers and researchers to better understand the transmission of climate impacts from one location to another. While impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research traditionally failed to take such climate impacts into account, a number of recent national-level scoping studies have recognized the potential significance of cross-border climate impacts. However, these studies have lacked an explicit futures perspective, and implicitly assumed static conditions under which cross-border climate impact is assessed.This paper addresses this research gap by developing a scenario-based framework for the study of future cross-border climate impacts using the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We apply this framework to assess future cross-border climate impacts in Kenya. We develop ‘extended SSPs’ in a combined top-down and bottom-up approach implemented through a co-production process together with local stakeholders. The bottom-up element of our approach consists of local drivers for understanding Kenya’s vulnerability to future cross-border climate impacts, and the top-down element consists of the global SSPs as common boundary conditions. Finally, the extended SSPs combined with identified future cross-border climate impacts are used to stimulate a participatory co-production process to explore and evaluate different sets of adaptation options and activities. These future-oriented adaptation actions have the potential to improve Kenyan adaptation planning to mitigate and adapt to future climate impacts generated from global flows.

Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK

As the pressure to take action against global warming is growing in urgency, scenarios that incorporate multiple social, economic and environmental drivers become increasingly critical to support governments and other stakeholders in planning climate change mitigation or adaptation actions. This has led to the recent explosion of future scenario analyses at multiple scales, further accelerated since the development of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) research community Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). While RCPs have been widely applied to climate models to produce climate scenarios at multiple scales for investigating climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities (CCIAV), SSPs are only recently being scaled for different geographical and sectoral applications. This is seen in the UK where significant investment has produced the RCP-based UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), but no equivalent UK version of the SSPs exists. We address this need by developing a set of multi-driver qualitative and quantitative UK-SSPs, following a state-of-the-art scenario methodology that integrates national stakeholder knowledge on locally-relevant drivers and indicators with higher level information from European and global SSPs. This was achieved through an intensive participatory process that facilitated the combination of bottom-up and top-down approaches to develop a set of UK-specific SSPs that are locally comprehensive, yet consistent with the global and European SSPs. The resulting scenarios balance the importance of consistency and legitimacy, demonstrating that divergence is not necessarily the result of inconsistency, nor comes as a choice to contextualise narratives at the appropriate scale.

Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways: Future narratives for assessment of water-related ecosystem services in agricultural and forest management

Further development of the bioeconomy, the substitution of bioresources for fossil resources, will lead to an increased pressure on land and water resources in both agriculture and forestry. It is important to study whether resultant changes in land management may in turn lead to impairment of water services. This paper describes the Nordic Bioeconomy Pathways (NBPs), a set of regional sectoral storylines nested within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework developed to provide the BIOWATER research program with land management scenarios for projecting future developments to explore possible conflicts between land management changes and the Water Framework Directive (WFD). The NBPs are a set of narrative storylines capturing a range of plausible future trajectories for the Nordic bioeconomy until 2050 and that are fit for use within hydrological catchment modelling, ecosystem service studies and stakeholder dialogue about possible changes in agricultural and forestry management practices.

Land use and land cover scenarios: An interdisciplinary approach integrating local conditions and the global shared socioeconomic pathways

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes have profound impacts on the functioning of (agro)ecosystems and have potential to mitigate global climate change. However, we still lack interdisciplinary methods to project future LULC scenarios at spatial scales that are relevant for local decision making and future environmental assessments. Here we apply an interdisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit projections of LULC at a resolution of 30 × 30 m informed by historic relationships between LULC and their key drivers, within the context of the four qualitative scenarios of global shared socioeconomic pathways. We apply this methodology to a case study in the Zona da Mata, Brazil, which has a history of major LULC changes. The analysis of LULC changes from 1986 to 2015 indicates that pasture area decreased from 76 to 58 % of total area, while forest areas increased from 18 to 24 %, and coffee from 3 to 11 %. Environmental protection legislation, rural credit for smallholder farmers, and demand for agricultural and raw products were identified as main drivers of LULC changes. Projected LULC for 2045 strongly depends on the global socioeconomic pathway scenarios, and forest and coffee areas may increase substantially under strong government measures in the environmentally conscious Green Road scenario or decrease in the high consumption Rocky Road scenario. Our study shows that under the set of drivers during the past three decades reforestation can go hand in hand with increase of agricultural production, but that major and contrasting changes in LULC can be expected depending on the socioeconomic pathway that will be followed in the future. To guide this process, LULC scenarios at the local scale can inform the planning of local and regional development and forest conservation.

Correction to: Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national scenarios in Japan

Under the session “Quantifcation of the population”, the following sentence Population curves of Japan SSP1 and Japan SSP2 are close, because the diference between high fertility and medium setting is not remarkable by NIPSSR.

Adapting global shared socio-economic pathways for national scenarios in Japan

Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) are alternative global development scenarios focused on the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. However, global SSPs would need revised versions for regional or local assessment, which is the so-called extended version, because global narratives may lack region-specific important drivers, national policy perspectives, and unification of data for each nation. Thus, it is necessary to construct scenarios that can be used for governments in response to the SSPs to reflect national and sub-national unique situations. This study presents national SSP scenarios, specifically focusing on Japan (hereafter, Japan SSPs), as well as a process for developing scenarios that qualitatively links to global SSPs. We document the descriptions of drivers and basic narratives of Japan SSPs coherent with global SSPs, based on workshops conducted by local researchers and governments. Moreover, we provide a common data set of population and GDP using the national scale. Japan SSPs emphasized population trends different from global SSPs and influencing factors, citizen participation, industrial development resulting from economic change, distribution, and inequality of sub-national population, among others. We selected data sets from existing population projections that have been widely used by Japanese researchers; the data show that the population and GDP of Japan SSPs are expected to be about 20–25% less than global SSPs by 2100.

Greater gains for Australia by tackling all SDGs but the last steps will be the most challenging

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) combine complex interlinkages, future uncertainty and transformational change. Recent studies highlight that trade-offs between SDG targets may undermine achievement of the goals. Significant gaps remain in scenario frameworks and modelling capabilities. We develop a novel approach nesting national SDG scenario modelling within the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, selecting Australia as a use case. The integrated SDG–Australia model is used to project four alternative scenarios that adopt different development approaches. Although we find that Australia is off-track to achieve the SDGs by 2030, considerable progress is possible by altering Australia’s development trajectory. A ‘Sustainability Transition’ scenario comprising a coherent set of policies and investments delivers rapid and balanced progress of 70% towards SDG targets by 2030, well ahead of the business-as-usual scenario (40%). A focus on economic growth, social inclusion or green economy in isolation foregoes opportunities for greater gains. However, future uncertainty and cascading risks could undermine progress, and closing the gap to 100% SDG achievement will be very challenging. This will require a shift from ‘transition’ to ‘transformation’. A simulation nesting global and Australian scenarios on how to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals finds that working on all goals jointly has added benefits. In the path to achieve the goals, the last stages will be the most challenging.

Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model

A precise multi-scenario prediction of future population, based on micro-scale census data and localized interpretation of global scenarios, is significant for understanding long-term demographic changes. However, the data used in previous research need to be further refined. Few studies have focused on predicting the sex ratio at birth, which is vitally important for estimating the future size and structure of the population. It is also important to interpret and set parameters for China’s future population development in line with the framework for global shared socioeconomic pathways. This paper, therefore, used the structural population data for provinces, prefectures, and counties from the Sixth National Population Census of China. It comprehensively considered the impact of China’s economic development level, specific population policies, and loss of an only child on key parameters, and localized the population change parameters for different scenarios. A population–development–environment model was used to explain the population change parameters. The population of 340 districts was refined, forecast, and aggregated to the national scale. The results show that the Chinese population is expected to first increase then decrease under the five paths from 2010 to 2050. The aging demographic structure is not reversed under any paths, and the increase or decrease in the urban and rural populations between adjacent node years is closely related to the fertility rate and urbanization speed. We suggest that measures should be taken to encourage childbearing, manage the aging population problem, and reduce the pressure on young and middle-aged people.

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.

Co-creating a desirable and resilient future for Lienz, Austria—a local case study in socio-economic scenario development

The aim of this case study was to conduct a participatory approach to socio-economic scenario development in the city of Lienz (East Tyrol) and to suggest this process-oriented approach as an element of an integrated guiding and decision support tool for local resilience and risk management to policy makers, business leaders, and civil society. The paper takes a socio-economic perspective and describes the settings of the case study, the process, and approach taken for co-creating two distinct normative socio-economic scenario narratives for the city of Lienz: a desirable or resilient future and an undesirable or stagnant future. Results are presented as sector-specific scenario narratives. Matching the local scenario narratives with the global shared socio-economic pathways, it derives that local peculiarities such as population decline due to outmigration trends or decentralized manufacturing industry and educational institutions were judged to be critical factors in securing local resilience for a prospering future.

Archetyping shared socioeconomic pathways across scales: an application to central Asia and European case studies

The complex interactions of drivers represented in scenarios and climate change impacts across scales have led to the development of multiscale scenarios. Since the recent development of global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), which have started being downscaled to lower scales, the potential of scenarios to be relevant for decision making and facilitate appreciation and inclusion of different perspectives has been increasing, compared with a single-scale global scenario set. However, in practice, quantitative downscaling of global scenarios results in narratives that are compressed from the global level to fit the local context to enhance consistency between global and local scales. We brought forward the concept of scenario archetypes to analyze multiscale SSP scenario narratives and highlight important diverging assumptions within the same archetype. Our methodology applied scenario archetypes both as typologies, to allocate specific cases of scenarios into existing scenario archetypes, and building blocks, conceptualized with worldviews from cultural theory. Although global SSPs generally match existing archetypes and tend to be well defined, the socially unequal SSPs at subglobal scales are more nuanced, and dominant worldviews are much less straighforward to interpret than in global scenarios. The closest match was the great transition–sustainability (SSP1) archetype, whereas the most divergent was the market forces– fossil fuel development (SSP5) archetype. Overall, our results highlight the need to improve uptake of bottom-up approaches in global scenarios to improve appreciation of different perspectives as sought after in multiscale scenarios.

New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways

Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel method to develop qualitative stories for Europe equivalent to the global SSPs starting from an existing set of European scenarios. Similar to the global SSPs, the set includes a sustainable future with global cooperation and less intensive lifestyles (We are the World; Eur-SSP1); a future in which countries struggle to maintain living standards in a high-carbon intensive Europe (Icarus; Eur-SSP3); a world in which power becomes concentrated in a small elite and where Europe becomes an important player (Riders on the Storm; Eur-SSP4); and one where a lack of environmental concern leads to the over-exploitation of fossil fuel resources addressed by technological solutions (Fossil-fuelled Development; Eur-SSP5). We conclude that the global SSPs are a good starting point for developing equivalent continental scale scenarios that, in turn, can serve multiple purposes. There are, however, methodological challenges related to the choice for equivalence and the exact methods by which scenarios are constructed that need to be tested further.