Global Registry Of Acute Coronary Events Research Articles

Abstract 12743: Patient Satisfaction and Determinants of 1-Year Mortality Following Acute Coronary Syndrome

Introduction: The association of patient satisfaction with hospital ACS care and risk for long-term outcomes is incompletely described. This is particularly relevant to the Gulf region, where the ACS burden is high and literature on patient satisfaction and outcomes is lacking. The aim was to compare determinants of 1-year mortality based on patient satisfaction with ACS care in the Gulf region. Methods: In a prospective registry of 3566 ACS patients from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and UAE (Gulf COAST registry), we grouped patients by their self-reported overall satisfaction with ACS care reported at 1-month following ACS (low satisfaction [n=1654] vs. high satisfaction [n=1912]; Table). We examined associations of baseline characteristics and risk for 1-year mortality in logistic regression models adjusted for Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score. Results: Mortality at 1-year following ACS was higher in patients reporting low satisfaction (8.8%; n=146/1654) vs. high satisfaction (5.4%; n=103/1912) ( P <.0001). Women, compared with men, had higher 1-year mortality risk in both satisfaction groups, and statistically significant risk in the low satisfaction group (aOR 1.45 [1.01–2.07]; P <.05). Lack of employment (vs. any employment) was associated with higher 1-year mortality risk in both the low satisfaction (aOR 6.44 [2.58–16.03]) and high satisfaction (aOR 2.58 [1.35–4.93]) groups with borderline significant interaction ( P interaction = .08). In both satisfaction groups, lack of education, hypertension and prior angina were associated with higher 1-year mortality risk, whereas dyslipidemia and diabetes showed no association. Conclusions: Low patient satisfaction with ACS care was associated with higher 1-year mortality risk. Socioeconomic factors such as employment and education were associated with higher 1-year mortality, independent of patient satisfaction, and may guide mortality reduction interventions.

GRACE PLUS: A data fusion-based approach to improve GRACE score in the risk assessment of Acute Coronary Syndrome

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs) are the world’s leading cause of morbidity and mortality, being responsible for almost 17 million deaths each year. In Europe, let alone it is estimated that 20% of all citizens suffer from one form of CVD, namely cerebrovascular disease or heart failure and Coronary Artery Disease (CAD). Among the latter, Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) is of particular importance since it is deadly and, hence, requires a prompt diagnosis and immediate medical attention. Aiming to deal with prognostication and promote consistency in managing patients with ACS, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score has been proposed. This tool is based on eight independent risk factors roughly accounting for 89.9% of prognostic information. Nevertheless, as some other risk factors, not included in GRACE, are also known to be important vectors in the stratification of patients, namely haemoglobin at admission, it is expected that by embedding additional risk factors information into GRACE it will lead to a better characterisation of a patient’s risk. Making use of data-fusion techniques, the present work proposes a generalisable framework to improve the classification performance of GRACE in predicting the risk of death in the course of six months after an ACS event, while preserving its interpretability and applicability. Considering haemoglobin concentration at admission, as an additional risk factor, it is shown that the discrimination performance of new GRACE Plus score outperformed that of GRACE in a database of cohorts comprising 1506 patients admitted with ACS, showing a F-1 score of 0.6033 for GRACE Plus against 0.5828 for GRACE, which is corroborated by one-tailed t-test in terms of correct stratification of death and survival endpoints, namely, t=−9.1876 and p<0.001.

Towards survival prediction of cancer patients using medical images.

Survival prediction of a patient is a critical task in clinical medicine for physicians and patients to make an informed decision. Several survival and risk scoring methods have been developed to estimate the survival score of patients using clinical information. For instance, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores are developed for the survival prediction of heart patients. Recently, state-of-the-art medical imaging and analysis techniques have paved the way for survival prediction of cancer patients by understanding key features extracted from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT) scanned images with the help of image processing and machine learning techniques. However, survival prediction is a challenging task due to the complexity in benchmarking of image features, feature selection methods, and machine learning models. In this article, we evaluate the performance of 156 visual features from radiomic and hand-crafted feature classes, six feature selection methods, and 10 machine learning models to benchmark their performance. In addition, MRI scanned Brain Tumor Segmentation (BraTS) and CT scanned non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) datasets are used to train classification and regression models. Our results highlight that logistic regression outperforms for the classification with 66 and 54% accuracy for BraTS and NSCLC datasets, respectively. Moreover, our analysis of best-performing features shows that age is a common and significant feature for survival prediction. Also, gray level and shape-based features play a vital role in regression. We believe that the study can be helpful for oncologists, radiologists, and medical imaging researchers to understand and automate the procedure of decision-making and prognosis of cancer patients.

Prognostic value of pulmonary hemodynamic parameters for predicting survival in acute coronary syndrome

Objective: To explore the characteristics and prognostic value of pulmonary hemodynamics in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods: From a prospective multicenter registry study of pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease, consecutive ACS patients who underwent coronary angiography in combination with left and right heart catheterization during hospitalization between January 2013 and November 2016 were involved. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. The prognostic variables identified by the Lasso analysis were included in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score. Model performance was evaluated before and after the addition of hemodynamic parameters. Results: A total of 251 patients were enrolled, with age of (63.7±11.5) years. A total of 198 males (78.9%) and 53 females (21.1%) were recruited, and the median follow-up time was 34.7 months. Right heart catheterization-assessed mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP), systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (sPAP) and diastolic pressure gradient (DPG) were found to be significant predictors for survival in ACS. Adjusted for age and sex, the adjusted HR (95%CI) of mPAP, sPAP and DPG were 1.068 (1.015-1.123), 1.033 (1.002-1.065) and 1.094 (1.008-1.187), respectively (P<0.05). Applied to the present cohort of 251 patients, the median of the GRACE score was 123 points, with a C-index of 0.703 (95%CI: 0.615-0.791) for predicting mortality. After the addition of mPAP or DPG to the GRACE score, the C-index increased to 0.715 (95%CI: 0.629-0.801) or 0.711 (95%CI: 0.625-0.797), respectively. When comparing two models before and after the addition of mPAP or DPG, the integrated discriminatory index (IDI) was 4.3% (95%CI: 0.2%-13.5%, P=0.030) and 3.0% (95%CI: 0.2%-11.1%, P=0.020), respectively. Conclusion: Pulmonary hemodynamics can be predictive for survival in ACS patients, providing incremental prognostic value to risk assessment in ACS.

The Predictive Value of Different Nutritional Indices Combined with the GRACE Score in Predicting the Risk of Long-Term Death in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Nutritional status is associated with prognosis in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. Although the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score is regarded as a relevant risk predictor for the prognosis of ACS patients, nutritional variables are not included in the GRACE score. This study aimed to compare the prognostic ability of the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) and Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) in predicting long-term all-cause death in ACS patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and to determine whether the GNRI or PNI could improve the predictive value of the GRACE score. A total of 799 patients with ACS who underwent PCI from May 2018 to December 2019 were included and regularly followed up. The performance of the PNI in predicting all-cause death was better than that of the GNRI [C-index, 0.677 vs. 0.638, p = 0.038]. The addition of the PNI significantly improved the predictive value of the GRACE score for all-cause death [increase in C-index from 0.722 to 0.740; IDI 0.006; NRI 0.095; p < 0.05]. The PNI was superior to the GNRI in predicting long-term all-cause death in ACS patients undergoing PCI. The addition of the PNI to the GRACE score could significantly improve the prediction of long-term all-cause death.

Sex inequities in the performance of the GRACE 2.0 score in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes: a multinational observational study in contemporary cohorts from four European countries

Abstract Background The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score was developed and validated in predominantly male patient populations. Growing evidence indicates distinct pathophysiologic and clinical characteristics of non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) in women and men. Purpose We aimed to assess sex differences in the performance of the GRACE score in NSTE-ACS in contemporary populations. Methods We calculated GRACE 2.0 risk estimates for patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary nation-wide ACS cohorts from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (MINAP, 2005–2017, n=400,054) and from Switzerland (AMIS Plus, 2005–2020, n=20,727; SPUM-ACS, 2009–2017, n=2,239). Sex disaggregated analyses were stratified according to the mortality endpoint of the score (in-hospital death, death at 6 months, death at 1 year), the clinical setting (calculated at admission and calculated for hospital survivors, respectively), the geographic region (United Kingdom and Switzerland, respectively) and the level of care (all hospitals and PCI-capable university hospitals, respectively). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the average prediction error (APE), and the misclassification rate (MCR) were compared between women and men. Results The discriminatory performance of GRACE 2.0 for in-hospital death was lower and the APE and MCR were higher in women as compared to men in the United Kingdom (AUC female: 80.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 80.0 to 80.8, AUC male: 84.7%, 95% CI, 84.4 to 85.1, p&amp;lt;0.001; APE female: 0.0512, 95% CI, 0.0501–0.0522, APE male: 0.0357, 95% CI, 0.0351 to 0.0363; MCR female: 5.81%, 95% CI, 5.68 to 5.94, MCR male: 3.96, 95% CI, 3.89 to 4.03) and in Switzerland (AUC female: 84.2%, 95% CI, 81.4 to 86.8, AUC male: 88.5%, 95% CI 87.1–89.7, p=0.003; APE female: 0.0420, 95% CI 0.0376 to 0.0465, APE male: 0.0312, 95% CI 0.0289 to 0.0335; MCR female: 4.98%, 95% CI 4.39 to 5.56, MCR male: 3.69%, 95% CI, 3.39 to 4.00). Similar results were obtained for 6-month death and 1-year death endpoints across clinical settings, geographic regions, and levels of care. The risk of in-hospital death relative to males was increased in females that GRACE 2.0 classified as low-to-intermediate risk (suggesting no early invasive management strategy) in the United Kingdom (relative risk [RR]: 1.61, 95% CI, 1.50 to 1.74, p&amp;lt;0.001) and in Switzerland (RR: 1.84, 95% CI, 1.28 to 2.64, p&amp;lt;0.001). Conclusion Thus far, this is the largest investigation on the GRACE risk score. We confirmed good overall score performance and found decreased performance in contemporary female patients with NSTE-ACS irrespective of the mortality endpoint, the clinical setting, the geographic region, and the level of care. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Swiss National Science FoundationSwiss Heart Foundation

Novel scoring system based on clinical examination for prediction of in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundThis study aims to develop PADjadjaran Mortality in Acute coronary syndrome (PADMA) Score to predict in-hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients based on clinical examination only. Additionally, we...

A Closer Look at the HEART Score.

The history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin (HEART) score is currently a widely used tool for acute chest pain risk stratification. Relatively soon after its inception in 2008, a number of validation studies on the HEART score showed it to be superior to Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scores and at least as accurate to other existing scores for predicting short-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). However, partly due to its focus on simplicity, the HEART score has some limitations. In this article we review how the HEART score has evolved and taken on various modifications to circumvent some of its limitations. We also highlight the strength of the HEART score in comparison with other risk stratification tools and the current guidelines.

Predicting Patients With Troponin Positive Chest Pain and Unobstructed Coronary Arteries With Electrocardiogram, Troponin Kinetics and GRACE Score.

Troponin positive chest-pain with unobstructed coronary arteries (TPCP-UCA), occurs in 6% of cases of patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Whilst TPCP-UCA patients are known to be younger with less cardiovascular risk factors when compared to obstructive coronary disease (MICAD), no validated methods exist to reliably delineate these two conditions prior to coronary angiography. We analysed 142 patients with MICAD and 127 patients with TPCP-UCA from 2015 to 2019. Several key predetermined clinical, biochemical and electrocardiograph (ECG) parameters, as well as Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, were collected for all patients. All TPCP-UCA patients underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (cMRI). Patients with TPCP-UCA were younger than MICAD (44 vs 68 yrs, p<0.01), and with less cardiac risk factors of hypertension (31% vs 68%, p<0.01), hypercholesterolaemia (23% vs 56%, p<0.01), diabetes (11% vs 45%, p<0.01), prior ischaemic heart disease (8% vs 42%, p<0.01) and smoking history (29% vs 50%, p<0.01). Peak troponin (MICAD 2,084.5 ng/L vs TPCP-UCA 847.0 ng/L, p=0.02), serial-to-initial troponin ratio (MICAD 13.5 vs TPCP-UCA 5.1, p<0.01), and peak-to-initial troponin ratio (MICAD 69.6 vs TPCP-UCA 14.0, p<0.01) were all higher in the MICAD group. GRACE scores were significantly different across the two cohorts (TPCP UCA 74 vs MICAD 106, p<0.01), with a receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve statistic of 0.794 (95% CI 0.739-0.850). On ECG analysis, MICAD had greater prevalence and sum of ST depression (40% vs 19% p<0.01; 1.6 mm vs 0.44 mm, p<0.01) and T wave inversion (37% vs 17%, p<0.01), whilst TPCP-UCA had greater presence of PR depression (20% vs 3% p<0.01), and longer repolarisation (T wave peak to end 89 ms vs 83 ms, p=0.04; T wave peak to end/corrected QT 0.208 ms vs 0.193 ms, p=0.03). All TPCP-UCA patients underwent cMRI. Aetiology was found in 82% of cases, with the leading diagnosis being myocarditis (58%), followed by infarction (8%), whilst 18% had a normal cMRI. TPCP-UCA is an important differential for patients presenting with ACS, and has several key demographic, biochemical and electrocardiographic differences. The present findings are hypothesis generating, thus prospective studies are required to determine and validate potential clinical utility.

Combination of TyG Index and GRACE Risk Score as Long-Term Prognostic Marker in Patients with ACS Complicated with T2DM Undergoing PCI.

ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate the prognostic value of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index combined the with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in adult acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).MethodsThe study enrolled total 899 ACS patients with T2DM who underwent PCI. TyG index and the GRACE risk score were calculated and assessed by median. The correlation was analyzed by Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The cumulative major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) curve was generated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify predictors of MACEs. Additionally, the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), net reclassification index (NRI) and Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) were applied to analyze the performance of each single factor index and combined multivariate index in predicting MACE.ResultsIn the ACS patients with T2DM after PCI, there were significant differences in the TyG index and GRACE risk score between the MACE group and the MACE-free group (P < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that the TyG index combined with the GRACE risk score was positively correlated with the occurrence of MACEs (log rank P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that the TyG index, the GRACE risk score, and the TyG index combined with the GRACE risk score were independent predictors of long-term MACEs (adjusted HR: 1.805; 95% CI: 1.479–2.203, P < 0.001; adjusted HR: 1.012; 95% CI: 1.009–1.016, P < 0.001; and adjusted HR: 2.337; 95% CI: 1.805–3.025, P < 0.001, respectively). Correlation analysis indicated that the TyG index was positively correlated with the GRACE risk score (R = 0.140, P < 0.001). The analysis of AUC, NRI and IDI revealed that the combined multivariate index performed better prognostic role than each single factor index in predicting the occurrence of MACE.ConclusionBoth the GRACE risk score and the TyG index could be significant and independent predictors of clinical outcomes in ACS patients with T2DM after PCI. A combination of them could be enhanced predictions of clinical outcomes in these patients.

Sex-specific evaluation and redevelopment of the GRACE score in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes in populations from the UK and Switzerland: a multinational analysis with external cohort validation

The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) 2.0 score was developed and validated in predominantly male patient populations. We aimed to assess its sex-specific performance in non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) and to develop an improved score (GRACE 3.0) that accounts for sex differences in disease characteristics. We evaluated the GRACE 2.0 score in 420 781 consecutive patients with NSTE-ACS in contemporary nationwide cohorts from the UK and Switzerland. Machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality were informed by the GRACE variables and developed in sex-disaggregated data from 386 591 patients from England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (split into a training cohort of 309 083 [80·0%] patients and a validation cohort of 77 508 [20·0%] patients). External validation of the GRACE 3.0 score was done in 20 727 patients from Switzerland. Between Jan 1, 2005, and Aug 27, 2020, 400 054 patients with NSTE-ACS in the UK and 20 727 patients with NSTE-ACS in Switzerland were included in the study. Discrimination of in-hospital death by the GRACE 2.0 score was good in male patients (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0·86, 95% CI 0·86-0·86) and notably lower in female patients (0·82, 95% CI 0·81-0·82; p<0·0001). The GRACE 2.0 score underestimated in-hospital mortality risk in female patients, favouring their incorrect stratification to the low-to-intermediate risk group, for which the score does not indicate early invasive treatment. Accounting for sex differences, GRACE 3.0 showed superior discrimination and good calibration with an AUC of 0·91 (95% CI 0·89-0·92) in male patients and 0·87 (95% CI 0·84-0·89) in female patients in an external cohort validation. GRACE 3·0 led to a clinically relevant reclassification of female patients to the high-risk group. The GRACE 2.0 score has limited discriminatory performance and underestimates in-hospital mortality in female patients with NSTE-ACS. The GRACE 3.0 score performs better in men and women and reduces sex inequalities in risk stratification. Swiss National Science Foundation, Swiss Heart Foundation, Lindenhof Foundation, Foundation for Cardiovascular Research, and Theodor-Ida-Herzog-Egli Foundation.

Cathepsin S Levels and Survival Among Patients With Non-ST-Segment Elevation Acute Coronary Syndromes

BackgroundPatients with non–ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) are at high residual risk for long-term cardiovascular (CV) mortality. Cathepsin S (CTSS) is a lysosomal cysteine protease with elastolytic and collagenolytic activity that has been involved in atherosclerotic plaque rupture. ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to determine the following: 1) the prognostic value of circulating CTSS measured at patient admission for long-term mortality in NSTE-ACS; and 2) its additive value over the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) risk score. MethodsThis was a single-center cohort study, consecutively recruiting patients with adjudicated NSTE-ACS (n = 1,112) from the emergency department of an academic hospital. CTSS was measured in serum using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All-cause mortality at 8 years was the primary endpoint. CV death was the secondary endpoint. ResultsIn total, 367 (33.0%) deaths were recorded. CTSS was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR for highest vs lowest quarter of CTSS: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.34-2.66; P < 0.001) and CV death (HR: 2.58; 95% CI: 1.15-5.77; P = 0.021) after adjusting for traditional CV risk factors, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, left ventricular ejection fraction, high-sensitivity troponin-T, revascularization and index diagnosis (unstable angina/ non–ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction). When CTSS was added to the GRACE score, it conferred significant discrimination and reclassification value for all-cause mortality (Delta Harrell’s C: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.012-0.047; P = 0.001; and net reclassification improvement = 0.202; P = 0.003) and CV death (AUC: 0.056; 95% CI: 0.017-0.095; P = 0.005; and net reclassification improvement = 0.390; P = 0.001) even after additionally considering high-sensitivity troponin-T and left ventricular ejection fraction. ConclusionsCirculating CTSS is a predictor of long-term mortality and improves risk stratification of patients with NSTE-ACS over the GRACE score.

Predictive Value of TIMI Risk Index for Angiographic No-reflow after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Objective: In patients with acute coronary artery disease, the TIMI risk index (TRI), the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) risk score, and the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE) risk score (GRS) have all been documented. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between no-reflow (NRF) and admission TRI, major cardiac events (MACE), and in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (P-PCI).&#x0D; Methods: Between March and December 2019, 100 consecutive patients diagnosed with STEMI and treated with PPCI at Tanta Main University Hospital in Tanta, Egypt, were included in the research population. Each patient consented following a thorough history taking, evaluation of coronary risk factors, clinical examination, and electrocardiogram analysis. Additionally, all instances were classified using the Killip method. The GRS, TRS, and TRI values were examined.&#x0D; Results: The GRS, TRS, and TRI scores were significantly associated with increased NRF, MACE, and hospital mortality in STEMI patients treated with P-PCI, suggesting that TRI is a straightforward indicator with fewer parameters that accurately reflects P-PCI success.&#x0D; Conclusion: TRI has been demonstrated to enhance the risk of in-hospital mortality and MACE. TRI uses straightforward and cost-effective ways to test patients who have experienced a STEMI. Additionally, a high TRI may assist in identifying high-risk individuals and developing suitable treatment solutions.

Addition of TyG index to the GRACE score improves prediction of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: A retrospective study.

BackgroundThe Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score is a widely recognized tool for predicting adverse cardiovascular events in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). The triglyceride-glucose index (TyG index) is a new biomarker of insulin resistance and has a close association with the occurrence of adverse cardiovascular events. We investigated whether the addition of the TyG index to the GRACE score could improve prognosis prediction in patients with NSTE-ACS undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).MethodsIn total, 515 patients with NSTE-ACS undergoing PCI were included in this retrospective study. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to describe the cumulative incidence of the primary endpoint based on the median TyG index. The relationship between the TyG index and GRACE score was analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. Based on the receiver operating characteristic curve, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated differentiation improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis, the TyG index was evaluated for its predictive value when added to the GRACE score. ROC curve analyses, NRI, and IDI were used to compare the gain effect of the TyG index and the levels of HbA1C, FBG, TG, and LDL-C on the GRACE score for predicting adverse cardiovascular events.ResultsThe TyG index was an independent predictor of 2-year adverse cardiovascular events in patients with NSTE-ACS undergoing PCI. The addition of the TyG index to the GRACE score demonstrated an improved ability to predict 2-year adverse cardiovascular events compared with the GRACE score alone (AUCs: GRACE score 0.798 vs. GRACE score+TyG index 0.849, P = 0.043; NRI = 0.718, P < 0.001; IDI = 0.086, P < 0.001). The decision curve analysis suggested that the clinical net benefit of the new model (GRACE score+TyG index) was superior to that of the GRACE score alone, with a probability range of 0.04 to 0.32. When including the TyG index, HbA1C, FBG, TG, and LDL-C in the GRACE score system, we found that the TyG index had a greater incremental impact on risk prediction and stratification compared to the other parameters.ConclusionCombining the TyG index and GRACE score could improve the prediction of 2-year adverse cardiovascular events. This new risk model could identify patients with NSTE-ACS at higher risk of adverse events following PCI so that they can be monitored more carefully.

Comparison of the modified Singapore myocardial infarction registry risk score with GRACE 2.0 in predicting 1-year acute myocardial infarction outcomes

Risk stratification plays a key role in identifying acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients at higher risk of mortality. However, current AMI risk scores such as the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score were derived from predominantly Caucasian populations and may not be applicable to Asian populations. We previously developed an AMI risk score from the national-level Singapore Myocardial Infarction Registry (SMIR) confined to ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients and did not include non-STEMI (NSTEMI) patients. Here, we derived a modified SMIR risk score for both STEMI and NSTEMI patients and compared its performance to the GRACE 2.0 score for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality in our multi-ethnic population. The most significant predictor of 1-year all-cause mortality in our population using the GRACE 2.0 score was cardiopulmonary resuscitation on admission (adjusted hazards ratio [HR] 6.50), while the most significant predictor using the SMIR score was age 80–89 years (adjusted HR 7.78). Although the variables used in the GRACE 2.0 score and SMIR score were not exactly the same, the c-statistics for 1-year all-cause mortality were similar between the two scores (GRACE 2.0 0.841 and SMIR 0.865). In conclusion, we have shown that in a multi-ethnic Asian AMI population undergoing PCI, the SMIR score performed as well as the GRACE 2.0 score.

Prognostic value of myocardial salvage index assessed by cardiovascular magnetic resonance in reperfused ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

AimsCardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) is a powerful tool to quantify the myocardial area at risk (AAR) and infarct size (IS), and evaluate the extent of myocardial salvage in acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of myocardial salvage index (MSI) assessed by CMR in reperfused STEMI and investigate whether MSI could improve the predictive efficacy of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score.Methods and results:About 104 consecutive patients who were hospitalized with first-time STEMI and received reperfusion therapy were prospectively enrolled. The primary endpoint was the incident of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) including all-cause mortality, non-fatal myocardial reinfarction and congestive heart failure within 36 months after the index event. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the prognostic association of MSI with MACE risk. About 21 (20.2%) patients developed MACE during the 3-year follow-up period, and patients with MSI < median had a higher incidence of MACE than those with MSI ≥ median [16 (30.8%) vs. 5 (9.6%), P = 0.007]. After adjusting all the parameters associated with MACE in univariate Cox analysis, MSI assessed by CMR remained independently significant as a predictor of MACE in multivariate Cox analysis (hazard ratio 0.963, 95% CI: 0.943–0.983; P < 0.001). Adding MSI to the GRACE risk score significantly increased the prognostic accuracy of the GRACE risk score (area under the curve: 0.833 vs. 0.773; P = 0.044), with a net reclassification improvement of 0.635 (P = 0.009) and an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.101 (P = 0.002).ConclusionThis study confirmed that MSI assessed by CMR had a good long-term prognostic value in reperfused STEMI and improve the prognostic performance of the GRACE risk score.

Combined use of the GRACE ACS risk score and comorbidity indices to increase the effectiveness of hospital mortality risk assessment in patients with acute coronary syndrome

To assess the possibilities of using comorbidity indices together with the GRACE (Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events) scale to assess the risk of hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The registry study included 2,305 patients with ACS. The frequency of coronary angiography was 54.0%, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) 26.9%. Hospital mortality with ACS was 4.8%, with myocardial infarction 9.4%. All patients underwent a comorbidity assessment according to the CIRS system (Cumulative Illness Rating Scale), according to the CCI (Charlson Comorbidity Index) and the CDS (Chronic Disease Score) scale, according to their own scale, which is based on the summation of 9 diseases (diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, stroke, arterial hypertension, obesity, peripheral atherosclerosis, thrombocytopenia, anemia, chronic kidney disease). All patients underwent a mortality risk assessment using the GRACE ACS Risk scale. It was found that the CDS and CIRS indices are not associated with the risk of hospital mortality. With CCI3, the frequency of death outcomes increased from 4.1 to 6.1% (2=4.12, p=0.042). With an increase in the severity of comorbidity from minimal (no more than 1 disease) to severe (4 or more diseases) according to its own scale, hospital mortality increased from 1.2 to 7.4% (2=23.8, p0.0001). In contrast to other scales of comorbidity, our own model more efficiently estimates the hospital prognosis both in the conservative treatment group (2=8.0, p=0.018) and in the PCI group (2=28.5, p=0.00001). It was in the PCI subgroup that the comorbidity factors included in their own model made it possible to increase the area under the ROC curve of the GRACE scale from 0.80 (0.740.87) to 0.90 (0.850.95). CCI and its own comorbidity model, but not CDS and CIRS, are associated with the risk of hospital mortality. The model for assessing comorbidity on a 9-point scale, but not CCI, CDS and CIRS, can significantly improve the predictive value of the GRACE scale.

Adjustment of the GRACE score by the triglyceride glucose index improves the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention

BackgroundThe Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score derived from clinical parameters at the time of hospital discharge is a powerful predictor of long-term mortality and reinfarction after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, which is a simple and reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has been demonstrated to be an independent predictor of long-term adverse major adverse cardiac events, irrespective of diabetes mellitus. We investigate whether the addition of the TyG index improves the predictive ability of the GRACE score after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in ACS patients regardless of diabetes mellitus.MethodA retrospective cohort of 986 ACS patients undergoing PCI was enrolled in the present analyses. The GRACE score for discharge to 6 months and the TyG index were calculated. The primary endpoint was the composite of MACEs, including all-cause death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Patients were stratified according to the primary endpoint and the tertiles of the TyG index. Cumulative curves were calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression was adopted to identify predictors of MACEs. The predictive value of the GRACE score alone and combined with the TyG index or fasting blood glucose (FBG) was estimated by the area under the receiver‑operating characteristic curve, likelihood ratio test, Akaike’s information criteria, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Internal validation was assessed using the means of bootstrap method with 1000 bootstrapped samples.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 30.72 months ((interquartile range, 26.13 to 35.07 months), 90 patients developed MACEs, more frequently in the patients with a higher TyG index. Multivariate Cox hazards regression analysis found that the TyG index, but not FBG was an independent predictor of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.6542; 95% CI 1.1555–2.3681; P = 0.006) in all types of ACS regardless of diabetes mellitus when included in the same model as GRACE score. Furthermore, Kaplan–Meier analysis revealed that the incidence of the primary endpoint rose with increasing TyG index tertiles (log-rank, P < 0.01). Adjustment the GRACE score by the TyG index improved the predictive ability for MACEs (increase in C-statistic value from 0.735 to 0.744; NRI, 0.282, 95% CI 0.028–0.426, P = 0.02; IDI, 0.019, 95% CI 0.004–0.046, P = 0.01). Likelihood ratio test showed that the TyG index significantly improved the prognostic ability of the GRACE score (χ2 = 12.37, 1 df; P < 0.001). The results remained consistent when the models were confirmed by internal bootstrap validation method.ConclusionThe TyG index, but not FBG is an independent predictor of long-term MACEs after PCI in all types of ACS patients regardless of diabetes mellitus after adjusting for the GRACE score, and improves the ability of the GRACE score to stratify risk and predict prognosis of ACS patients undergoing PCI.

The Association Between Admission Heart Failure and In-Hospital Outcomes in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

BackgroundThe Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) study showed that admission HF is associated with longer hospital stay and higher mortality in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. No data are available on the effect of heart failure (HF) on the length of cardiac care unit (CCU) stay and in-hospital major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). The link between the severity of HF and the in-hospital prognosis is not established. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the unstudied outcomes in HF patients as well as to compare the outcomes across the spectrum of HF presentations.MethodsWe studied 210 STEMI patients presenting to a single primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) center in a retrospective cohort pattern. We excluded those who received fibrinolysis, those who had chest pain for more than 24 h and those with previous stents and presenting with stent thrombosis. All the procedures followed the ethical standards of Alexandria University and the Helsinki Declaration.ResultsSTEMI patients with HF had significantly longer CCU stay (mean value of 3.6 vs. 2.87 days, P = 0.009), higher in-hospital MACE (55% vs. 4.7%, P < 0.001) and higher mortality (15% vs. 0.53%, P < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that HF is an independent predictor of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) = 9.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.66 - 49.9, P = 0.01). The patients with severe HF on admission (Killip III and IV) tended to stay longer in the CCU (4.13 ± 1.89 days vs. 3.25 ± 1.54 days, P = 0.069) and the hospital (5.88 ± 3.09 vs. 4.42 ± 2.47 days, P = 0.077), compared to those with mild HF (Killip II). There was a tendency for a higher incidence of in-hospital MACE (75% vs. 33%, P = 0.068) and mortality (16.7% vs. 12.5%, P = 0.798) in the former group compared to the latter. The differences among HF subgroups did not reach the point of statistical significance though.ConclusionsThe presence of HF on the admission of STEMI patients undergoing PPCI is associated with longer CCU stay, higher in-hospital MACE and mortality.

A Novel Biomarker Scoring System Alone or in Combination with the GRACE Score for the Prognostic Assessment in Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

PurposeThe Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score has proven value in predicting short-term prognosis in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), but it has only moderate discrimination for long-term outcomes. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a multi-biomarker score for better risk stratification and indication of 2-year risk in patients with NSTEMI.Patients and MethodsA total of 6076 consecutive patients with NSTEMI (66 [59–73] years, 73.1% males) admitted at Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University were collected in this observational, prospective study between 2012 and 2018 with a 24-month follow-up. The primary endpoint was all-cause death and non-fatal major adverse cardiac events (MACE). A biomarker score ranged from 0 to 12 was constructed. The predictive power of the biomarker score was evaluated alone or combined with the GRACE score by C-statistic, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination index (IDI).ResultsDuring a 2-year follow-up, all-cause death occurred in 159 patients (2.6%), and non-fatal MACEs were presented in 709 patients (11.7%). When added to the GRACE score, the biomarker score demonstrated better prognostic accuracy, patient reclassification and risk discrimination for both mortality and non-fatal MACEs at 2 years by improving the C-statistic from 0.714 (0.671–0.756) and 0.623 (0.600–0.646) to 0.851 (0.820–0.882) and 0.721 (0.702–0.741) with NRI >25% (P<0.001) and IDI >0.30 (P<0.001).ConclusionThe single use of biomarker score could markedly enhance the prognostic value of concurrent risk stratification tools for 2-year mortality and non-fatal MACEs in NSTEMI. The GRACE score with incorporation of the biomarker score led to more accurate risk reclassification and warrants more consideration in further NSTEMI management.