Global Balance Of Power Research Articles

Catching Up with the Future: Diplomacy for a New Global Landscape

Summary This contribution discusses the impact of three structural phenomena on the strategic functions of future diplomacy. The first is the shifting global power balance, which has important consequences for the manner in which European ministries of foreign affairs reposition themselves with regard to both big and middle powers. The assertiveness of big, revisionist states implies a return to realpolitik in which hard power takes centre stage. The ascendency of middle powers reinforces the need to build equal partnerships with increasingly influential non-Western countries. The other two game changers are the existential challenges of climate change and the ascent of artificial intelligence. A conflict-sensitive climate approach requires an adjusted diplomatic toolkit. Artificial intelligence has an effect on many different policy dimensions, from international governance to trade promotion. All these developments are relevant to the practice of diplomacy and the skills diplomats need in order to navigate through a changing global environment.

NATO’s Artificial Intelligence Strategy and Interoperability Challenges: The Case of Turkey

ABSTRACT The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly changed military applications, creating new competitive advantages and shifting the global balance of power. This article examines NATO’s AI strategy and the associated interoperability challenges, with a particular focus on Turkey. NATO’s AI strategy seeks to enhance interoperability among its member states by fostering the integration of AI technologies into military capabilities. However, achieving this goal is complicated by the varying levels of AI technological advancement, divergent national AI-military strategies and differing geopolitical considerations among member countries. Using Turkey as a case study, this paper explores how the rapid development of AI-based military drones contributes to Turkey’s strategic autonomy and enhances regime resilience while also highlighting certain interoperability considerations within NATO. The analysis underlines the need for a cohesive approach to AI integration that addresses these disparities to maintain NATO’s collective defence capabilities.

Experimental investigation of steady state power balance in double null and single null H mode plasmas in MAST Upgrade

Global power balance calculations in steady state H mode plasmas varying the distance between separatrices (drsep) and the divertor configuration have been performed in MAST Upgrade. As drsep becomes more negative, more of the power crossing the separatrix goes to the lower divertor. The inner divertor receives a higher fraction of the power exhaust in a Super-X divertor plasma compared to a conventional divertor plasma at similar negative drsep, which is a concern for high power devices employing alternative divertor configurations for power exhaust handling. Global power accounting suggests >30% of the input power is unaccounted for with the power loss channels quantified in this work. Charge exchange and orbit losses from the NBI could account for a large fraction of unaccounted power but it is not possible to precisely determine this without further diagnostic calibration.

Development of a compact bolometer camera concept for investigation of radiation asymmetries at Wendelstein 7-X.

Power exhaust is one of the central challenges in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. Radiative detachment can be employed to reduce particle and heat fluxes to the divertor target, mitigating divertor damage and erosion. However, accomplishing this for a non-axisymmetric machine such as Wendelstein 7-X is a non-trivial task because of the complex role of transport and plasma-wall interaction in a three-dimensional magnetic field topology. We introduce a new bolometer camera design that can be easily installed in multiple toroidal locations and adapted to the required geometry, providing additional spatial coverage. This can be used to locally enhance tomographic capabilities or to resolve spatial variations of the plasma emissivity. By including these non-uniformities in the total radiated power estimate, global power balance measurements can be improved. We model each bolometer camera using ray tracing. We then analyze the forward-modeled detector response to several physically motivated synthetic emission phantoms with respect to its capability to quantify the local average emissivity. The results prove this concept as a promising asset for the investigation of poloidal and toroidal radiated power asymmetries in Wendelstein 7-X. The first CBC prototypes have undergone development and installation for the next experimental campaign.

Geopolitical competition of great powers in the Arctic

The article examines the complex issues of Arctic security arising from changing geopolitical realities; explores the new Cold War atmosphere in the region mixed with melting ice, which affects military planning and opens new economic opportunities and access to natural resources. Particular attention is paid to the reasons for the competition of great powers for primacy in the Arctic. It is noted that in recent years, the region has begun to shift from the principles of international cooperation and has quickly transformed into an arena of great power rivalry. The military presence has increased as well as the competing economic investments and political activity from significant political actors: Russia, China, and the United States of America. Now that all the great powers are investing in the Arctic, the concept of peace and cooperation is giving way to the concept of security and deterrence. To examine these factors, thе article uses a typical neorealist view of international relations, arguing that the driving force behind the rapid growth of the Arctic race is not the region itself, but the transforming structure of the international relations, which tends to effectively reproduce the causes of global competition. It the author’s view, peaceful rivalry in the Arctic may not last long, given the lack of effective institutions to address security issues in the region and the fact that changes in the global balance of power also affect local disputes and grievances.

THE IMPACT OF THE NEW SILK ROAD INITIATIVE ON THE INTERNATIONAL BALANCE OF POWER

This article examines the effects of the new Silk Road initiative, known as the "Belt and Road Initiative," on the international balance of power. It addresses its impact on revitalizing trade and relations among world nations, both culturally and geopolitically. It also discusses the role of the road in cultural exchange, intellectual and cultural interchange, and its contribution to reducing Western dominance and promoting global peace. The study concludes that the new Silk Road holds strategic importance in reshaping global power balances and the existing international system. The descriptive and analytical methods were employed to review the motives, causes, and challenges of reviving and re-establishing the Silk Road, along with analyzing trade-related figures. Additionally, historical methodology was occasionally used to recount the establishment of the Silk Road.

The BRICS+: Who are they, why are they important, and what do they want?

This paper analyses one of the most significant attempts since 1944 to rebalance the global powerbase in favour of emerging market economies. In January 2024, the BRICS group of emerging market economies undertook in the words of the Chinese President an ‘historic’ expansion and admitted five new member countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Adopting a revisionist approach, the new ‘BRICS+’ grouping seeks a more representative and fairer international order acting as a counterweight to Western economic and political dominance. The paper highlights that while enlargement has expanded the BRICS economic power and geostrategic reach, the BRICS face a number of domestic and geopolitical challenges, which will limit both deeper integration and ultimately the group’s ability to shift the balance of global power in their favour. Ultimately, the expanded BRICS are economically strong(er), yet geopolitically weak(er).

Legion of Doom? China, Russia, Iran and North Korea

China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are deepening their security cooperation and, as a result, pose a growing challenge to the United States and its allies. These countries see the United States and its allies as a threat, have aggressive aims, and believe that the Western liberal order detracts from their stability and hinders their regional objectives. Although the depth of their relations is not as robust as that enjoyed by their Western rivals, their growing cooperation is a significant development in the global balance of power and has major implications for the West. US and allied planners must recognise that they cannot focus on only one adversary, such as China, and that a crisis in one part of the world is increasingly less likely to stay isolated, as each power may receive weapons, economic support and other assistance from others during a crisis.

Война дронов как пример влияния самоуправляемых систем на изменение баланса сил

According to our forecasts a new, very powerful technological wave will begin, in the next 10–15 years, which we call the Cybernetic Revolution. Its final phase will begin in the 2030s. The main technological breakthroughs of the Cybernetic Revolution will lead to the emergence and widespread implementation of self-regulating systems, that is, systems capable of functioning not only in the absence (or with minimal participation) of humans, but also independently (using artificial intelligence and other innovative technologies) to accept complex solutions. Such systems already exist, but in the future we will see the emergence of many new and more advanced self-regulating systems that will be in demand in a wide range of areas of life: from medicine to the management of “smart cities.” However, in the context of the topic of the article, we are especially interested in self-regulating systems used for military purposes: drones of various types (water, land, and air), but especially UAVs, as well as robots and self-driving vehicles. The article will show how the special military operation in Ukraine accelerated the development and expanded the use of these self-regulating systems; how and why UAVs have a major impact on military tactical and strategic decisions and practices. Particular attention will be paid to the impact of drones and other self-regulating military systems on the global and regional balance of power, and to predictions of how future wars may be shaped by the development of self-regulating systems.

Currency Hegemony as a Tool of US Global Dominance

Subject. The formation of new centers of global influence predetermines corresponding changes in the global balance of power. At the same time, the lack of real reforms of the global monetary system allows the United States to continue to set the rules of the game in the global economy, despite its increasing crisis potential. In this regard, there is a need to identify the driving forces capable of producing constructive changes in the global monetary order. Objective. A summary of the practice of using the US dollar to suppress global competition and maintain American superiority in international economic relations. Results. The control of the international monetary sphere by the country — hegemon of the world economy can be traced at all stages of the development of international economic relations (IER). Currently, the hegemonic country’s self-interest from issuing international liquidity, with non-resistance to such a policy on the part of all other IER participants, hinders the development of effective anti-crisis measures and worsens the general condition of the world economy. Scattered attempts to overcome the failures of global currency regulation at the local level (including through the use of digital technologies) seem to be ineffective, since they are not systemic in nature. Conclusions. A qualitative reform of the global monetary system is impossible without combining the efforts of the world’s largest economies to counter the destructive policies of the country that issues key international liquidity. Otherwise, the costs of financial crises become an insurmountable obstacle to the global economy entering a path of sustainable development.

The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global Balance of Power

The Russia-Ukraine War and the Global Balance of Power

"KVANT TAHDIDI: KVANT HISOBLASHNING XALQARO KIBERXAVFSIZLIKKA TAʼSIRINI VA YANGI HUQUQIY BAZALARGA SHOSHILINCH EHTIYOJNI OʻRGANISH""KVANT TAHDIDI: KVANT HISOBLASHNING XALQARO KIBERXAVFSIZLIKKA TAʼSIRINI VA YANGI HUQUQIY BAZALARGA SHOSHILINCH EHTIYOJNI OʻRGANISH"

"The rapid advancement of quantum computing poses a significant threat to the cybersecurity of our increasingly digitized world. As quantum computers become more powerful and accessible, they have the potential to break many of the cryptographic algorithms that currently secure our sensitive data, financial transactions, and critical infrastructure. This looming “quantum threat” has far-reaching implications for individuals, organizations, and nation-states, as it could lead to widespread data breaches, economic disruption, and compromised national security. Despite the growing recognition of this risk, existing legal and regulatory frameworks are largely unprepared to address the unique challenges of quantum-enabled cyber threats. Moreover, the geopolitical implications of the quantum revolution are complex and multifaceted, with the potential to reshape the global balance of power and exacerbate technological inequalities. To mitigate these risks and promote quantum readiness, there is an urgent need for the international community to develop new legal frameworks and cooperative mechanisms that span technical, economic, legal, and political domains. This article provides an interdisciplinary analysis of the quantum threat to cybersecurity, examines its potential impacts across various sectors and international relations, and offers policy recommendations for developing a comprehensive global governance framework. By proactively addressing this challenge through multi-stakeholder collaboration and quantum-resistant solutions, we can work towards a more secure and resilient digital future in the face of this transformative technology. "

Asia Anew Initiative: Main Aspects of Türkiye’s Asia Opening

The center of gravity in the world has shifted from the Atlantic to Asia over the last decade. The Asian continent has emerged as the geopolitical and geo-economic hub of the world, undergoing a remarkable transformation. This transformation is reshaping the global balance of power. In this context, it is apparent that the dominant theme of the 21st century at the global level is the “Rise of Asia.” This rise is primarily driven by economic dynamics, yet its supplementary elements in political, military, and cultural spheres are increasingly apparent. Initially perceived as being predominantly centered around China, it is now widely recognized that the entire Asian region is undergoing developmental strides, particularly in economic terms, positioning Asian countries as significant future actors. The Asia Anew Initiative, launched in 2019 by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye, represents the country’s comprehensive, long term, holistic, and systematic vision for Asia. This commentary will analyze Türkiye’s overall perspective on the Asian continent and discuss the main dynamics of the initiative.

The Challenge(s) of India’s foreign policy in the shifting global power balance

ABSTRACT India is regarded as a key player in Asia’s security landscape. This stance has become increasingly important with China’s rise and US’s waning influence. While India has emerged as an active participant in multilateral forums under the leadership of prime minister Narendra Modi, its regional and global politics remain somewhat obscure. This article addresses the challenges India encounters where decisions are influenced by the need to balance economic obligations and strategic interests. Also, an effective propaganda machinery is absent from amplifying India’s foreign policy narratives globally, a mismatch between its ambitions and material strength.

Regulation of Artificial Intelligence in Russia: Eclecticism of Approaches and Actors

Many observers expect artificial intelligence (AI) to become one of the most important technologies of the 21st century, whose development will be a decisive factor in shaping the future global technological balance of power. A practical confirmation of this statement is the fact that today an increasing number of states are striving to accelerate their national AI development programmes. Russia is one of them, although it is generally not perceived in the West as a potential leader in this emerging competition. At the same time, Russia’s demonstrated ability to build its own successful national IT ecosystem is attracting increased international interest in its national AI development efforts. The purpose of this paper is to outline the contours of these efforts, and to trace the evolution of the regulatory framework and its underlying principles. The authors draw the following conclusions. Russia is developing a flexible and science-based approach to AI and its potential humanitarian impacts, combining its own historical experience with international practices. Strategically, Russia sees the development of national AI as an important means of advancing its economic and technological development in a way that benefits its citizens and businesses, as well as preventing a possible economic and technological slowdown. Significant progress has been made on legal and ethical issues. The focus of Russian efforts in this area is more on soft law norms and self-regulation rather than on prohibitive legislative norms. This approach leaves a lot of room for the development of AI and reduces the possibility of its premature bureaucratisation, which could hinder innovation in the field. There are certain similarities between the Russian and European approaches to AI development and regulation. Human security concerns, data protection and a risk-based approach to the development of AI technologies are prioritised by the state and supranational institutions (respectively) as the main actors responsible for safeguarding the well-being, interests and rights of the citizens.

Russia's Clashing Ambitions: Arctic Status Quo and World‐Order Revision

Moscow explicitly challenges what it depicts as a Western-led world order amid shifts in the global balance of power. However, while Russia has emerged as a fundamentally revisionist power in the global system, it has sought to maintain the status quo in Arctic regional governance, that is, to preserve the institutions and arrangements that have cemented its status as a great regional power on top of the world. This study, challenging the notions of Arctic exceptionalism and a distinct Arctic regional order, points out an obvious inconsistency in Russia’s approach. It argues that Moscow’s attempt at dismantling the world order while maintaining the status quo in the Arctic seems bound to fail simply because the current rules-based, liberal international order has also been the order of the Arctic. In conclusion, this study finds that Russia so far has been more successful in diminishing its own Arctic status and isolating itself from formal as well as informal arrangements than revising them.

Rare earth geopolitics: global dynamics and strategic balance of power

Rare earth geopolitics: global dynamics and strategic balance of power

ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ ИНФОРМАЦИОННОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ РОССИИ В РАМКАХ РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ КОНЦЕПЦИИ ВНЕШНЕЙ ПОЛИТИКИ

The article deals with the analysis of the provisions of the new Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation in 2023 concerning ensuring the country’s information security in modern conditions. The article shows how this document can specify certain provisions of the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, including in the information sphere. The author shows how the Concept under consideration can make it possible to build, among other things, promising international relations that ensure the information security of Russia, based on a conceptual framework. Attention is paid to the issues of ensuring the national security of the state in the framework of the processes of expanding relations with countries that are positively disposed towards the Russian Federation, erasing dividing lines, and establishing long-term relations, taking into account modern realities. The article emphasizes and develops the position that the priority for Russia is to ensure global security, based on the principle of respect for the requirements of ensuring the national security of different countries, including in the information sphere, and the mission of the Russian Federation is to maintain a global balance of power. The author analyzes, in relation to the issues of ensuring the information security of the Russian Federation, the provision of the Concept regarding the fact that Russia does not oppose itself to the United States and its allies, but at the same time it provides for the possibility of using armed forces in the event of a hypothetical attack on Russia or its allies in order to maintain a balanced and just world.

Status i znaczenie Trójmorza w konstrukcji współczesnej globalnej architektury bezpieczeństwa

This article covers a cross-sectional and updating reflection on the phenomena taking place in the security sphere of the region, the so-called Three Seas. The research subject of the article is the Three Seas Initiative format as a potential subjective keystone of the security of Central and Eastern Europe, treated taking into account historical and current events, as one of the foundations of not only the European or Euro-Atlantic, but also the global security architecture. The priority research goal was to present and analyze the progress and integration and institutional perspectives of the Three Seas Region, and thus an attempt to search for the status arrangements of this format, by analyzing this geopolitical space in the light of, above all, the concept of regional security complexes (but also, among others, geopolitical wedges, the influence of superpowers of the global balance of power). The findings presented in these investigations signal both attempts to comprehensively bind the region with interdependence, attempts at far-reaching rapprochement and co-creation of soft security architecture – in the form of development-progressing infrastructure, as well as pragmatic and conservative behavior, resulting from both the geopolitical dynamics and current national calculations of the Three Seas countries.

Ogólnorosyjski Front Ludowy w systemie politycznym Federacji Rosyjskiej w latach 2011-2022

In recent years, the Russian concept of war has evolved significantly. Its aim is to seek a change in the global balance of power. The subject of discussion in this article is the issue of war in the Russian military doctrine, the specificity of the hybrid war, the probability of Russian military intervention, and the question of building strategic independence. The author used a complementary cognition paradigm that allows combining the process of cognition with the functions of science. The considerations focused on the activities related to the annexation of Crimea in 2014.The research presents the Russian perspective of contemporary armed conflict which examines the experience of the Russian armed forces and the particularity of modern military operations. The key elements of the hybrid war were identified and the basis of Russian strategic independence which the ruling elite, in fact, was striving to achieve, was indicated. From the Russian point of view with regard to the armed conflict, there is a conviction that it is necessary to comprehensively use military, political and economic information as well as asymmetric actions. Russia is systematically rebuilding its armed forces since it has ambitions to play a significant role in the international environment; and the armed forces facilitate: articulating its opinions, deterring, and demonstrating its importance.