Война дронов как пример влияния самоуправляемых систем на изменение баланса сил

Abstract

According to our forecasts a new, very powerful technological wave will begin, in the next 10–15 years, which we call the Cybernetic Revolution. Its final phase will begin in the 2030s. The main technological breakthroughs of the Cybernetic Revolution will lead to the emergence and widespread implementation of self-regulating systems, that is, systems capable of functioning not only in the absence (or with minimal participation) of humans, but also independently (using artificial intelligence and other innovative technologies) to accept complex solutions. Such systems already exist, but in the future we will see the emergence of many new and more advanced self-regulating systems that will be in demand in a wide range of areas of life: from medicine to the management of “smart cities.” However, in the context of the topic of the article, we are especially interested in self-regulating systems used for military purposes: drones of various types (water, land, and air), but especially UAVs, as well as robots and self-driving vehicles. The article will show how the special military operation in Ukraine accelerated the development and expanded the use of these self-regulating systems; how and why UAVs have a major impact on military tactical and strategic decisions and practices. Particular attention will be paid to the impact of drones and other self-regulating military systems on the global and regional balance of power, and to predictions of how future wars may be shaped by the development of self-regulating systems.