РАССТАНОВКА СИЛ В РЕГИОНЕ ПРИДНЕСТРОВСКОГО КОНФЛИКТА В КОНТЕКСТЕ СПЕЦИАЛЬНОЙ ВОЕННОЙ ОПЕРАЦИИ РОССИИ НА УКРАИНЕ

Abstract

The article is an analysis of the alignment of forces in the region of the Transnistrian conflict in the context of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. The author proceeds from the fact that around the Transnistrian conflict, international relations have developed into a kind of subsystem, which is influenced by events and significant changes in international relations at regional and global levels. The purpose of the article is to determine the balance of power in the conflict region and assess the dynamics of transformation of the sub-regional situation in the context of a special military operation The following research tasks were solved in the study: the balance of power in the region of the Transnistrian conflict was characterized on the eve of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, the changes in that balance in the course of the operation were assessed, and the prospects for resolving the Transnistrian conflict in its context were identified. Through the use of system analysis, balance of power theory, geopolitical approach, historical and comparative analysis as a methodological basis, the author comes to the following conclusions. The existing alignment of forces in the region of the Transnistrian conflict is distinguished by the extremely pronounced position of the actors, divided into two “camps”, in relation to each other and the prospects for resolving the Transnistrian conflict. The interests of regional actors are consistent – in the subsystem of international relations in the region of the Transnistrian conflict, there are practically no actors that would have an ambivalent geopolitical orientation. A characteristic feature of the sub-regional situation is that, under the conditions of Russia’s special military operation it is maximally included in the regional and global context.