Global Monsoon Precipitation Research Articles

Fast response of global monsoon area and precipitation to regional carbonaceous aerosols

Monsoon exerts a significant social and economic impact on billions of people around the world. Changes in global monsoon (GM) rainfall under global warming have been well studied; however, the understanding of GM connection with regional aerosol emissions is limited. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we attempt to quantify the response of global monsoon area and precipitation to the removal of carbonaceous aerosols over North America (AM), North Africa (AF), Europe (EU), and Asia (AS). Response to the emission removal, the global average aerosol optical depths (AOD) are reduced by 2.21%, 1.8%, 1.16%, and 3.8% respectively. A southward shift in the GM domain is observed, responding to changes in magnitude and position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, when carbonaceous aerosols are removed over these regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The percentage departure in the area-averaged GM precipitation is found to be 4-fold in magnitude for the removal of emissions over EU when compared to that of AM and AF. A shrinkage in the GM area is also observed, which is maximum for EU (∼−30%) compared to AM and AF (∼−25%). The change in GM precipitation and area are found to be the least and opposite in nature for AS emissions. This study provides insight into the regional nature of carbonaceous aerosol effects on global precipitation.

Nonlinear Response of Global Monsoon Precipitation to Atlantic Overturning Strength Variations During Marine Isotope Stage 3

AbstractMonsoon rainfall proxy records show clear millennial variations corresponding to abrupt climate events in Greenland ice cores during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3). The occurrence of these abrupt climate changes is associated with Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength variations which greatly impact the global oceanic energy transport. Hence, the AMOC most likely plays a key role in modulating the global monsoon rainfall at millennial time scale. No modeling work has hitherto investigated the global monsoon system response to AMOC changes under a MIS3 background climate. Using the coupled climate model CCSM3, we simulated MIS3 climate using full 38 ka before present boundary conditions and performed a set of freshwater hosing/extraction experiments. We show not only agreement between modeling results and proxies of monsoon rainfall within the global monsoon domain but also highlight a nonlinear relationship between AMOC strength and annual mean global monsoon precipitation related to oceanic heat transport constraints. During MIS3, a weakened AMOC induces a decrease in annual mean global monsoon rainfall dominated by the northern hemisphere, whereas southern hemisphere monsoon rainfall increases. Above about 16 Sverdrups a further strengthening of the AMOC has no significant impact on hemispheric and global monsoon domain annual mean rainfall. The seasonal monsoon rainfall shows the same nonlinear response like annual mean both hemispherically and globally.

Deforestation Drives Desiccation in Global Monsoon Region

AbstractGlobal monsoon system is a major component of the Earth's climate system and carries about two‐thirds of the world's population. How large‐scale deforestation induced changes in water cycle and energy balance may modify global monsoon system and its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we use simulations of 11 models participating in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 to study the response of global monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation to large‐scale deforestation. Global deforestation of about 38% induces annual precipitation reduction of about −15.01 mm yr−1 (Multi‐Model Ensemble) in global monsoon regions and −26.15 mm yr−1 in land monsoon regions. The precipitation reduction is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere Summer Monsoon (NHSM) regions with decreased precipitation by 16.83 mm in the summer monsoon season from May to September along with weakened circulation intensity. Deforestation causes asymmetrical temperature response in the northern high latitudes and Southern Hemisphere Tropics, leading to decreased hemispheric thermal contrast, which reduces the meridional pressure gradient and weakens the convergence of cross‐equatorial flows into the NHSM trough regions, thereby decreasing the NHSM circulation and precipitation intensity. The deforestation‐induced hemispheric temperature asymmetry also increases the northward cross‐equatorial atmosphere heat transport (c‐eq AHT) that drives southward shift of Intertropical Convergence Zone, which suppresses the NHSM precipitation. Our results show that the drying monsoon region in response to deforestation is fairly consistent among the models implying the adverse effects of large‐scale deforestation beyond the region of land use change.

Long-term latitudinal effects of precipitation change in global monsoon regions

Global paleomonsoon precipitation evolution is confined to asynchronous responses to global monsoons to shared forcings, including summer insolation, sea surface temperature, atmospheric circulation coupling, and ocean circulation. However, most studies are based on conclusions drawn from single or a few discrete records or deduced from top-down climate models, which limits our ability to understand the latitudinal effect of monsoon precipitation. In particular, precipitation is a locally constrained climate factor. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of global monsoon precipitation over the last 12,000 cal year BP based on modern observations, paleoclimate simulations, paleoclimate records, and monsoon precipitation reconstructions over the past 12,000 cal year BP based on a bottom-up algorithm called climate field reconstruction approaches. The results show that the middle latitude monsoon precipitation is in line with the evolution of the insolation and significant long-term decreasing (increasing) trends in low latitude monsoon precipitation have not occurred over the last 12,000 years BP. For modern monsoon evolution, the monsoon precipitation also changes along the meridional direction, with overall decreasing precipitation in the global monsoon region and increasing precipitation in the monsoon margin area. Monsoon systems at different latitudes all record eight Holocene weak precipitation events, including the Younger Dryas (12,900 cal year BP to 11,700 cal year BP), which can be considered a strong effect caused by a significant reduction or collapse of a meridional ocean circulation system, namely, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Moreover, the low- and middle-latitude monsoon precipitation lags by approximately 2,000 years behind the onset of North Atlantic warming. Taken together, our findings provide important insights into the latitudinal effect of monsoon precipitation at different locations.

Effects of Anthropogenic Aerosol and Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Northern Hemisphere Monsoon Precipitation: Mechanisms and Uncertainty

Abstract Northern Hemisphere land monsoon (NHLM) precipitation exhibits multidecadal variability, decreasing over the second half of the twentieth century and increasing after the 1980s. We use a novel combination of CMIP6 simulations and several large ensembles to assess the relative roles of drivers of monsoon precipitation trends, analyzing the effects of anthropogenic aerosol (AA), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and natural forcing. We decomposed summer global monsoon precipitation anomalies into dynamic and thermodynamic terms to assess the drivers of precipitation trends. We show that the drying trends are likely to be mainly due to increased AA emissions, which cause shifts of the atmospheric circulation and a decrease in moisture advection. Increases in GHG emissions cause monsoon precipitation to increase due to strengthened moisture advection. The uncertainty in summer monsoon precipitation trends is explored using three initial-condition large ensembles. AA emissions have strong controls on monsoon precipitation trends, exceeding the effects of internal climate variability. However, uncertainties in the effects of external forcings on monsoon precipitation are high for specific periods and monsoon domains, resulting from differences in how models simulate shifts in atmospheric circulation. The effect of AA emissions is uncertain over the northern African monsoon domain due to differences among climate models in simulating the effects of AA emissions on net shortwave radiation over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Understanding global monsoon precipitation changes during the 8.2 ka event and the current warm period

Global monsoon (GM) precipitation has profound impacts on water resources, food security, and the livelihood of about two-thirds of the world's population. Understanding the contrasting changes of GM precipitation (GMP) during the 8.2 ka cold event and the present-day warm event helps better comprehend the common origin of the GMP change and its future projection. We analyzed a suite of transient climate evolutions (TraCE-21 ka simulation). We show that the simulated monsoon rainfall changes during the 8.2 ka abrupt cooling event are qualitatively consistent with the paleoclimate archive collected worldwide. The simulated Northern Hemisphere monsoon (NHM) precipitation significantly decreased by 12.4% per one degree of global mean temperature change (12.4%/°C) while the Southern Hemisphere monsoon (SHM) precipitation increased by 4.2%/°C. The cooling-induced suppressed upward motion plays a dominant role in reducing NHM precipitation, and the reduced moisture adds to the circulation effect, whereas the enhanced SHM precipitation is mainly due to the moisture increase. In the 8.2 ka event, the circulation response reinforces the moisture-induced drought over the NHM region, resulting in an excessive precipitation sensitivity to temperature change (12.4%/°C). In contrast, during the present warm period, the greenhouse warming-induced moisture and circulation effects cancel each other, resulting in a moderate sensitivity (1.8%/°C). Although meltwater and greenhouse gas forcings induce contrasting global temperature change patterns, the GMP changes are governed by common root causes: forced NH-SH thermal contrast, land-ocean thermal contrast, and the tropical SST gradients. The moisture change plays a crucial role in altering precipitation amount but not spatial distribution. We suggest that the external forcing-induced warming (cooling) pattern drives the circulation changes (dynamic effects), determining the spatial structure of the monsoon rainfall change in the past, present, and future.

Skilful seasonal predictions of global monsoon summer precipitation with DePreSys3

We assess skill of the Met Office’s DePreSys3 prediction system at forecasting summer global monsoon precipitation at the seasonal time scale (2–5 month forecast period). DePreSys3 has significant skill at predicting summer monsoon precipitation (r = 0.68), but the skill varies by region and is higher in the northern (r = 0.68) rather than in the southern hemisphere (r = 0.44). To understand the sources of precipitation forecast skill, we decompose the precipitation into several dynamic and thermodynamic components and assess the skill in predicting each. While dynamical changes of the atmospheric circulation primarily contribute to global monsoon variability, skill at predicting shifts in the atmospheric circulation is relatively low. This lower skill partly relates to DePreSys3’s limited ability to accurately simulate changes in atmospheric circulation patterns in response to sea surface temperature forcing. Skill at predicting the thermodynamic component of precipitation is generally higher than for the dynamic component, but thermodynamic anomalies only contribute a small proportion of the total precipitation variability. Finally, we show that the use of a large ensemble improves skill for predicting monsoon precipitation, but skill does not increase beyond 20 members.

Dependence of global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions on the background oceanic states

AbstractBoth proxy data and climate modeling show divergent responses of global monsoon precipitation to volcanic eruptions. The reason is however unknown. Here, based on analysis of the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble simulation, we show evidences that the divergent responses are dominated by the pre-eruption background oceanic states. We found that under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral and warm phases initial conditions, the Pacific favors an El Niño-like anomaly after volcanic eruptions, while La Niña-like SST anomalies tend to occur following eruptions under ENSO cold phase initial condition, especially after southern eruptions. The cold initial condition is associated with stronger upper ocean temperature stratification and shallower thermocline over the eastern Pacific than normal. The easterly anomalies triggered by surface cooling over the tropical South America continent can generate changes in SST through anomalous advection and the ocean subsurface upwelling more efficiently, causing La Niña-like SST anomalies. Whereas under warm initial condition, the easterly anomalies fail to develop and the westerly anomalies still play a dominant role, thus forms an El Niño-like SST anomaly. Such SST response further regulates the monsoon precipitation changes through atmospheric teleconnection. The contribution of direct radiative forcing and indirect SST response to precipitation changes show regional differences, which will further affect the intensity and sign of precipitation response in submonsoon regions. Our results imply that attention should be paid to the background oceanic state when predicting the global monsoon precipitation responses to volcanic eruptions.

Monsoons Climate Change Assessment

AbstractMonsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset.

Global monsoon response to tropical and Arctic stratospheric aerosol injection

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is considered as a backup approach to mitigate global warming, and understanding its climate impact is of great societal concern. It remains unclear how differently global monsoon (GM) precipitation would change in response to tropical and Arctic SAI. Using the Community Earth System Model, a control experiment and a suite of 140-year experiments with CO2 increasing by 1% per year (1% CO2) are conducted, including ten tropical SAI and ten Arctic SAI experiments with different injecting intensity ranging from 10 to 100 Tg yr−1. For the same amount of injection, a larger reduction in global temperature occurs under tropical SAI compared with Arctic SAI. The simulated result in the last 40 years shows that, for a 10 Tg yr−1 injection, GM precipitation decreases by 1.1% (relative to the 1% CO2 experiment) under Arctic SAI, which is weaker than under tropical SAI (1.9%). Further, tropical SAI suppresses precipitation globally, but Arctic SAI reduces the Northern Hemisphere monsoon (NHM) precipitation by 2.3% and increases the Southern Hemisphere monsoon (SHM) precipitation by 0.7%. Under the effect of tropical SAI, the reduced GM precipitation is mainly due to the thermodynamic term associated with the tropical cooling-induced decreased moisture content. The hemispheric antisymmetric impact of Arctic SAI arises from the dynamic term related to anomalous moisture convergence influenced by the anomalous meridional temperature gradient.

Volcanic-induced global monsoon drying modulated by diverse El Niño responses.

There remains large intersimulation spread in the hydrologic responses to tropical volcanic eruptions, and identifying the sources of diverse responses has important implications for assessing the side effects of solar geoengineering and improving decadal predictions. Here, we show that the intersimulation spread in the global monsoon drying response strongly relates to diverse El Niño responses to tropical eruptions. Most of the coupled climate models simulate El Niño-like equatorial eastern Pacific warming after volcanic eruptions but with different amplitudes, which drive a large spread of summer monsoon weakening and corresponding precipitation reduction. Two factors are further identified for the diverse El Niño responses. Different volcanic forcings induce systematic differences in the Maritime Continent drying and subsequent westerly winds over equatorial western Pacific, varying El Niño intensity. The internally generated warm water volume over the equatorial western Pacific in the pre-eruption month also contributes to the diverse El Niño development.

The trends in land surface heat fluxes over global monsoon domains and their responses to monsoon and precipitation

The climatology, trends and leading modes of land surface latent heat flux (LHF) and sensible heat flux (SHF) as well as their responses to monsoon and precipitation in global land monsoon domains are presented. During the past three decades, LHF and SHF have generally undergone a rising and decreasing trend (that is, (LHF+, SHF−)), respectively, in Asian, North African, Austrian, and South American monsoon domains. Moreover, the increasing rate of LHF was higher than the decreasing rate of SHF, which causes a decreased trend in Bowen ratio. Two other dominant trend patterns, (LHF−, SHF−) and (LHF+, SHF+), are observed in South African and South American monsoon domains, respectively. The trends in LHF and SHF are closely linked to increasing global monsoon intensity and precipitation, especially for the monsoon domain that has annual precipitation lower than 1300 mm yr−1. Singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses show that monsoon strength explains 25.2% and 22.2% total covariance of LHF and SHF respectively in the first modes, and that precipitation slightly raises the percentages up to 27.8% and 24% respectively. The increasing monsoon and precipitation on one hand favor more land surface available energy being converted into LHF; on the other hand they enhance the LHF by increasing the land surface net radiation. Moreover, remarkable phase shifts in LHF and SHF are observed for monsoon domains during late-1990s, which are in phase with those of precipitation and monsoon strength. The intensifying LHF and precipitation indicate the acceleration of hydrological cycle in global terrestrial monsoon domains.

Attribution of Global Monsoon Response to the Last Glacial Maximum Forcings

Abstract Investigation of global monsoon (GM) responses to external forcings is instrumental for understanding its formation mechanism and projected future changes. Coupled climate model experiments are performed to assess how the individual and full Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) forcings change GM precipitation. Under the full LGM forcing, the annual and local summer-mean GM precipitation are reduced by 8.5% and 10.8%, respectively, compared to the results in the preindustrial control run; and the reduction of Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer monsoon (NHSM) precipitation is twice as large as its Southern Hemisphere (SH) counterpart (SHSM). The NH–SH asymmetric response is mainly caused by the monsoon circulation change–induced moisture convergence rather than the reduction of moisture content, but the root cause is the continental ice sheet forcing. The NHSM precipitation changes dramatically differ among various single-forcing experiments, while this is not the case for their SH counterparts. The moisture budget analysis indicates the NHSM is dynamically oriented, but SHSM is thermodynamically oriented. The markedly different NHSM circulation changes are caused by different forcing-induced sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, including the North Atlantic cooling pattern forced by the continental ice sheet, the mega–La Niña–like pattern resulting from the greenhouse gas forcing, and the Indian Ocean dipole–like SST pattern caused by the land–sea configuration forcing. Moreover, the distinctive change of “monsoonality” in the Australian–Indonesian monsoon is predominantly forced by the exposure of the land shelf, which enhances precipitation during early summer (November–December) but weakens it in the rest of the year.

Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)

Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) [CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon (GM) features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation (GMP, the local summer precipitation), GM area (GMA), and GM percentage (the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes: (1) The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5°C temperature goal and increases under the 2.0°C temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage. (2) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5°C and 2.0°C goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation. (3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals. (4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals. The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5°C and 2.0°C temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies. In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.

Changes in global monsoon precipitation and the related dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms in recent decades

The aim of this study is to explore the long‐term trends in the distribution of global monsoon precipitation over recent decades using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data set. In addition, the potential4 mechanisms are examined by applying the atmospheric moisture budget decomposition method to the outputs from the ERA‐Interim medium‐range weather forecasting reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Changes in global monsoon precipitation are primarily thermodynamically caused by changes in specific humidity and dynamically caused by changes in circulation, as well as by changes in moisture transport that are driven by transient eddies and local evaporation. The results show that the increasing trends in global summer monsoon precipitation from 1979 to 2016 were dominated by contributions from the southern Asian, South African, and North American monsoon regions and were driven by the response of atmospheric circulation to the enhanced east–west thermal contrast in the tropical Pacific. We find that changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) patterns promote increased low‐level vertical velocities in monsoon regions, leading to moisture convergence through divergent circulation anomalies when combined with the climatological humidity field. Hence, the processes result in increasing trends in monsoon precipitation. In addition, evaporation makes increasing contributions to monsoon precipitation throughout the world, except in the South American monsoon region. Moreover, subtropical regions in the East Pacific (the Atlantic) may be major sources of water vapour that have supported increases in precipitation over the southern Asian and North American monsoon regions (the South African monsoon region) in recent decades.

Global Monsoon Precipitation: Trends, Leading Modes, and Associated Drought and Heat Wave in the Northern Hemisphere

Global monsoon precipitation (GMP) brings the majority of water for the local agriculture and ecosystem. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) GMP shows an upward trend over the past decades, while the trend in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) GMP is weak and insignificant. The first three singular value decomposition modes between NH GMP and global SST during boreal summer reflect, in order, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, and central Pacific (CP) El Niño, when the AMO dominates the NH climate and contributes to the increased trend. However, the first three modes between SH GMP and global SST during boreal winter are revealed as EP El Niño, the AMO, and CP El Niño, when the EP El Niño becomes the most significant driver of the SH GMP, and the AMO-induced rainfall anomalies may cancel out each other within the SH global monsoon domain and thus result in a weak trend. The intensification of NH GMP is proposed to favor the occurrences of droughts and heat waves (HWs) in the midlatitudes through a monsoon–desert-like mechanism. That is, the diabatic heating associated with the monsoonal rainfall may drive large-scale circulation anomalies and trigger intensified subsidence in remote regions. The anomalous descending motions over the midlatitudes are usually accompanied by clear skies, which result in less precipitation and more downward solar radiation, and thus drier and hotter soil conditions that favor the occurrences of droughts and HWs. In comparison, the SH GMP may exert much smaller impacts on the NH extremes in spring and summer, probably because the winter signals associated with SH GMP cannot sufficiently persist into the following seasons.

Inter‐annual variability of global monsoon precipitation in present‐day and future warming scenarios based on 33 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models

Simulations and future projections of year‐to‐year variation in global monsoon precipitation (GMP), defined as the summer precipitation amount per unit area within the global monsoon domain, are investigated using the 33 models that participated in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The inter‐annual standard deviation of GMP, which presents the amplitude of year‐to‐year variability in monsoon rainfall, is simulated well by the multi‐model ensemble (MME) mean of the 33 models and of the best five (B5) models. The B5 models show superior skills in reproducing the climatological monsoon precipitation and its inter‐annual variability. The inter‐annual standard deviations of 25‐year GMP in the present day (1979–2005) derived from the MME average of the 33 models and of the B5 models are 0.17 and 0.15 mm/day per unit area, respectively, both being close to the observation (0.16 mm/day per unit area). Consistent with the observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–GMP relationship, the simulated variability of GMP is negatively correlated with the sea surface temperature in the Niño areas at the inter‐annual timescale.Projections by the 33 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 scenario indicate that wet and dry monsoon years would occur more intensively in a warmer climate. Around 61% (20 out of the 33) of the models show enhanced inter‐annual variability of GMP by the end of the 21st century (2072–2098) compared to the period 1979–2005. The MME of the B5 models suggests that the amplitude of projected GMP variability would increase by ~20% from present day to the late 21st century. However, the increasing rate of GMP variability detected by the 33 models’ MME is relatively small (~6%), which is even smaller than the inter‐model standard deviation, suggesting the amplitude changes in GMP variability feature non‐negligible uncertainty among the 33 models. Under global warming, the inter‐annual variation of GMP would still be tightly connected with ENSO, although the projected amplitude changes in ENSO variability are noticeably diverse across the 33 CMIP5 models. The enhanced amplitude of inter‐annual GMP variability may be attributable to the increase in mean‐state moisture associated with global warming. The dynamic effect related to changes in the variability of monsoon circulation is small and less robust among the 33 CMIP5 models.

Enhanced Global Monsoon in Present Warm Period Due to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings

In this study, we investigate global monsoon precipitation (GMP) changes between the Present Warm Period (PWP, 1900–2000) and the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1250–1850) by performing millennium sensitivity simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Three millennium simulations are carried out under time-varying solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, respectively, from 501 to 2000 AD. Compared to the global-mean surface temperature of the cold LIA, the global warming in the PWP caused by high GHG concentration is about 0.42 °C, by strong solar radiation is 0.14 °C, and by decreased volcanic activity is 0.07 °C. The GMP increases in these three types of global warming are comparable, being 0.12, 0.058, and 0.055 mm day−1, respectively. For one degree of global warming, the GMP increase induced by strong GHG forcing is 2.2% °C−1, by strong solar radiation is 2.8% °C−1, and by decreased volcanic forcing is 5.5% °C−1, which means that volcanic forcing is most effective in terms of changing the GMP among these three external forcing factors. Under volcanic inactivity-related global warming, both monsoon moisture and circulation are enhanced, and the enhanced circulation mainly occurs in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The circulation, however, is weakened in the other two cases, and the GMP intensification is mainly caused by increased moisture. Due to large NH volcanic aerosol concentration in the LIA, the inter-hemispheric thermal contrast of PWP global warming tends to enhance NH monsoon circulation. Compared to the GHG forcing, solar radiation tends to warm low-latitude regions and cause a greater monsoon moisture increase, resulting in a stronger GMP increase. The finding in this study is important for predicting the GMP in future anthropogenic global warming when a change in natural solar or volcanic activity occurs.

Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions.

Climate variation of global monsoon (GM) precipitation involves both internal feedback and external forcing. Here, we focus on strong volcanic forcing since large eruptions are known to be a dominant mechanism in natural climate change. It is not known whether large volcanoes erupted at different latitudes have distinctive effects on the monsoon in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We address this issue using a 1500-year volcanic sensitivity simulation by the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). Volcanoes are classified into three types based on their meridional aerosol distributions: NH volcanoes, SH volcanoes and equatorial volcanoes. Using the model simulation, we discover that the GM precipitation in one hemisphere is enhanced significantly by the remote volcanic forcing occurring in the other hemisphere. This remote volcanic forcing-induced intensification is mainly through circulation change rather than moisture content change. In addition, the NH volcanic eruptions are more efficient in reducing the NH monsoon precipitation than the equatorial ones, and so do the SH eruptions in weakening the SH monsoon, because the equatorial eruptions, despite reducing moisture content, have weaker effects in weakening the off-equatorial monsoon circulation than the subtropical-extratropical volcanoes do.

Global monsoon change during the Last Glacial Maximum: a multi-model study

Change of global monsoon (GM) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is investigated using results from the multi-model ensemble of seven coupled climate models participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The GM changes during LGM are identified by comparison of the results from the pre-industrial control run and the LGM run. The results show (1) the annual mean GM precipitation and GM domain are reduced by about 10 and 5 %, respectively; (2) the monsoon intensity (demonstrated by the local summer–minus–winter precipitation) is also weakened over most monsoon regions except Australian monsoon; (3) the monsoon precipitation is reduced more during the local summer than winter; (4) distinct from all other regional monsoons, the Australian monsoon is strengthened and the monsoon area is enlarged. Four major factors contribute to these changes. The lower greenhouse gas concentration and the presence of the ice sheets decrease air temperature and water vapor content, resulting in a general weakening of the GM precipitation and reduction of GM domain. The reduced hemispheric difference in seasonal variation of insolation may contribute to the weakened GM intensity. The changed land–ocean configuration in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, along with the presence of the ice sheets and lower greenhouse gas concentration, result in strengthened land–ocean and North–South hemispheric thermal contrasts, leading to the unique strengthened Australian monsoon. Although some of the results are consistent with the proxy data, uncertainties remain in different models. More comparison is needed between proxy data and model experiments to better understand the changes of the GM during the LGM.