Global Model Simulations Research Articles

Increasing Arctic dust suppresses the reduction of ice nucleation in the Arctic lower troposphere by warming

Ice nucleating particles (INPs) affect the cloud radiative budget in the rapidly warming Arctic by changing the cloud liquid/ice phase balance. Dust emitted in the Arctic (Arctic dust) has been suggested to be a major contributor to INPs in the Arctic lower troposphere. However, how Arctic dust and its impacts on ice nucleation change with Arctic warming has not been explored. Here we find that the simulated dust emission flux in the Arctic (>60°N) in global model simulations increases by 20% from 1981–1990 to 2011–2020. This increase weakens the sensitivity of ice nucleation in Arctic lower tropospheric clouds to warming by 40% compared to the case without considering Arctic dust emission increases. Our results demonstrate a better understanding of the counterbalancing feedbacks of Arctic dust (i.e., increasing emissions and decreasing ice nucleation efficiency) is needed for more accurate estimates of changes in ice nucleation in the rapidly changing Arctic climate.

Effects of urban areas on the diurnal cycle of temperature and precipitation in a global climate simulation

AbstractAnalyses of global climate model results for urban impacts on temperature and precipitation are rare. Previous analyses of the global Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model simulation results for 1985–2010 have revealed urban effects on minimum and maximum temperatures. Using the same dataset to derive time‐zone‐corrected three‐hourly local time period (LTP) data, averaged diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation were calculated for grid cells with greater than 10% urban fraction (urban grid cells) globally. Three latitudinal bands were assessed: northern extratropics (NET, 274 urban grid cells), southern extratropics (SET, 39 urban grid cells), and the Tropics (26 urban grid cells). The largest statistically significant urban influences on temperature are consistently found at night, in agreement with many previous studies on urban heat islands. Signs of urban cooling were found for a few hours, from 09:00 to 15:00 LTP, most often in summer. Influences of urban areas on precipitation varied, with small increases and decreases in all latitudinal bands and seasons. For NET, increases were generally found. In the Tropics, increases were found from 21:00 to 09:00 LTP for all seasons except DJF, with decreases for all seasons from 15:00 to 18:00 LTP. In SET, all seasons had increases for 21:00 to 00:00 LTP and decreases for 15:00 to 18:00 LTP. DJF had decreases for all LTPs except 21:00 to 00:00 LTP and SON had increases for all times except 15:00 to 18:00 LTP. Differences in rainfall in the region surrounding the urban areas were broadly similar to local changes in NET. For the Tropics and SET, regional decreases were found for DJF and JJA, with a more varied pattern for other months. Regional effects appeared to be more restricted to near‐urban areas in the Tropics than in NET. The results indicate some influence of nearby urban areas on regional temperature and precipitation.

Contrasting Domestic and Global Impacts of Emission Reductions in China on Tropospheric Ozone

AbstractSustained near‐surface ozone pollution despite stringent emission controls in China has drawn wide attention. However, how such rapid regional emission reductions affect global tropospheric ozone remains unexplored. Here, using an ensemble of measurements and global model simulations, we find Chinese emission reductions during 2013–2020 have increased domestic surface ozone; particularly in North China, they have decreased the global tropospheric ozone burden by 2.7 Tg (54% of China's anthropogenic contribution and 7% of global anthropogenic contribution in 2019) and ozone radiative forcing by 8.8 mW m−2 (64% of China's anthropogenic contribution and 9% of global anthropogenic contribution in 2019). Nitrogen oxides (NOx) associated nonlinear chemistry and height‐dependent atmospheric transport patterns primarily cause the contrasting impacts. Future Chinese NOx emission controls would continue to decrease global tropospheric ozone, while regional surface ozone may still increase unless NOx reductions exceed ∼53% of the 2019 level. Our results reveal the substantial benefit of regional emission reductions in China on global tropospheric ozone mitigation.

Low cloud-SST variability over the summertime subtropical Northeast Pacific: Role of extratropical atmospheric modes

Abstract Over the subtropical Northeast Pacific (NEP), highly reflective low clouds interact with underlying sea-surface temperature (SST) to constitute a local positive feedback. Recent modeling studies showed that, together with wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback, the summertime low cloud-SST feedback promotes nonlocal trade wind variations, modulating subsequent evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study aims to identify drivers of summertime low-cloud variations, using satellite observations and global atmosphere model simulations forced with observed SST. A trans-basin teleconnection is identified, where the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) warming induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increases precipitation, exciting warm Rossby waves that extend into the NEP. The resultant enhancement of static stability promotes summertime low cloud-SST variability. By regressing out the effects of the preceding ENSO and NTA SST, atmospheric internal variability over the extratropical North Pacific, including the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), is found to drive the NEP cooling by latent heat loss and subsequent summer low cloud-SST variability. With the help of the background trade winds and WES feedback, the SST anomalies extend southwestward from the low-cloud region, accompanied by ENSO in the following winter. This suggests the nonlocal effects of low clouds identified by recent studies. Analysis of a 500-year climate model simulation corroborates the NTA and NPO forcing of NEP low cloud-SST variability and subsequent ENSO.

Modeling Urban Temperature Using Measurements from Mobile and Stationary Monitoring Stations

Heat waves are occurring more frequently worldwide as global warming continues, and urban heat islands can threaten conventional life in cities. Measuring, analyzing, and simulating weather data at fine spatial and temporal scales are essential to prevent and reduce the damage caused by extreme heat waves. In urban environments, handling complex micrometeorological situations using current meteorological stations and global simulation models (e.g., weather research forecasting models) is challenging. In this study, the thermal environments of urban areas were measured using a mobile meteorological measurement platform. Both mobile and stationary datasets were incorporated into the meteorological modeling process to simulate the spatial and temporal distribution of temperature. Additionally, various mobile observation implementation scenarios for temperature modeling were examined. We compared simulation combinations with the temperature field generated from the total dataset to obtain a better sampling campaign and properly incorporate mobile data scenarios. When collecting mobile data, it is important to consider spatial features to improve the efficiency of sampling programs. This can substantially reduce the cost of mobile data collection, together with the sensor error bound.

Overlooked branch turnover creates a widespread bias in forest carbon accounting

Most measurements and models of forest carbon cycling neglect the carbon flux associated with the turnover of branch biomass, a physiological process quantified for other organs (fine roots, leaves, and stems). Synthesizing data from boreal, temperate, and tropical forests (184,815 trees), we found that including branch turnover increased empirical estimates of aboveground wood production by 16% (equivalent to 1.9 Pg Cy-1 globally), of similar magnitude to the observed global forest carbon sinks. In addition, reallocating carbon to branch turnover in model simulations reduced stem wood biomass, a long-lasting carbon storage, by 7 to 17%. This prevailing neglect of branch turnover suggests widespread biases in carbon flux estimates across global datasets and model simulations. Branch litterfall, sometimes used as a proxy for branch turnover, ignores carbon lost from attached dead branches, underestimating branch C turnover by 38% in a pine forest. Modifications to field measurement protocols and existing models are needed to allow a more realistic partitioning of wood production and forest carbon storage.

A global model and two-dimensional simulation study of a low-pressure inductively coupled CF4 plasma considering non-Maxwellian EEDF

We analyze the discharge characteristics of a low-pressure inductively coupled CF4 plasma using a global model and a two-dimensional (2D) simulation. We first conducted a study comparing the experimental results with the global model, which makes it easier to compare the trend concerning external parameters and less computationally expensive, to validate the chemical reaction data, and then, compared the experimental results with the 2D simulation results. We then analyzed the discharge characteristics by comparing the 2D model results with the global model at various gas pressures and powers. The simulations were performed using COMSOL software, which is based on a fluid model. The electron energy distribution function (EEDF) was solved self-consistently using the Boltzmann equation solver, and then, coupled with the fluid model. The results were more consistent with the experimental results when the EEDF was calculated by solving the Boltzmann equation than for assuming the Maxwellian EEDF. Furthermore, the global model results were similar with the mean values obtained from the 2D model. This indicates that it is efficient to first validate the electron collision cross sections and reaction coefficients using the global model. Our approach is expected to be utilized in the analysis of new gases.

Synchronization of the Recent Decline of East African Long Rains and Northwestern Eurasian Warming

AbstractThe East African March–April–May (MAM, “long rains”) precipitation decline in recent decades remains a puzzle marked by various proposed large‐scale drivers. Here, the interannual variability of the long rains and their recent drying trend are examined using global model simulations and observations. Comparison of a control simulation and re‐initialized simulations in which land‐surface feedback is suppressed shows that much of the long rains deficit experienced between 1980 and 2014 is synchronized with the warming of the Northwestern Eurasian landmass. In agreement with the modeling results, multiple observational data sets reveal a strong negative correlation between MAM mean East African rainfall amount and the surface temperature over Northwestern Eurasia. Idealized simulations further indicate that warming in Northwestern Eurasia weakens the regional Hadley Cell and diverts the monsoonal transport of moisture away from Eastern Africa toward Europe and southern Africa, highlighting the role of remote land surface warming on the observed precipitation decline.

Increasing aerosol optical depth spatial and temporal availability by merging datasets from geostationary and sun-synchronous satellites

Abstract. This comprehensive study analyzed aerosol products from six low-Earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) sensors. LEO sensors like the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and VIsible InfraRed Suite (VIIRS) provide one to two daily global measurements, while GEO sensors (Advanced Himawari Imager: AHI, Advanced Baseline Imager: ABI) offer high-frequency data (∼ 10 min) over specific regions. The combination of LEO and GEO capabilities offers expanded coverage of the global aerosol system if aerosol retrievals are applied consistently across all sensors and packaged in an easy-to-use product. The Dark Target aerosol retrieval algorithm was applied to the six sensors, and the resulting Level 2 aerosol optical depth (AOD) products were gridded and merged into a Level 3 quarter-degree latitude–longitude grid with a 30 min temporal resolution, providing the necessary consistency and packaging. Validation of this packaged Level 3 AOD product against Aerosol Robotics NETwork (AERONET) measurements across global locations showcased the merged product's robustness with a correlation coefficient of 0.83, revealing a global mean bias of approximately ±0.05, with 65.5 % of retrievals falling within an expected uncertainty range, underlining the reliability of the dataset. The new gridded Level 3 dataset significantly improved daily global coverage to nearly 45 %, overcoming the limitations of individual sensors, which typically range from 12 % to 25 %. Furthermore, this merged dataset approximates the diurnal cycle of AOD observed by AERONET, thus offering insights into diurnal signatures retrieved elsewhere. The resulting dataset's high spatiotemporal resolution and improved global coverage, especially in regions covered by GEO sensors (Americas and Asia), make it a valuable tool for diverse applications. Tracking aerosol transport from phenomena like wildfires and dust storms is gaining precision, enabling enhanced air quality forecasting and hindcasting. Additionally, the study positions the merged dataset as a significant asset for evaluating and intercomparing regional or global model simulations, which was previously unattainable in such a gridded format. The dataset and fusion framework layout in this study have the potential to include data from recently (future) launched other GEO (FCI, AMI) and LEO (PACE, VIIRS-JPSS) sensors.

Floating debris and organisms can raft to Antarctic coasts from all major Southern Hemisphere landmasses.

Antarctica's unique marine ecosystems are threatened by the arrival of non-native marine species on rafting ocean objects. The harsh environmental conditions in Antarctica prevent the establishment of many such species, but warming around the continent and the opening up of ice-free regions may already be reducing these barriers. Although recent genomic work has revealed that rafts-potentially carrying diverse coastal passengers-reach Antarctica from sub-Antarctic islands, Antarctica's vulnerability to incursions from Southern Hemisphere continents remains unknown. Here we use 0.1° global ocean model simulations to explore whether drift connections exist between more northern, temperate landmasses and the Antarctic coastline. We show that passively floating objects can drift to Antarctica not only from sub-Antarctic islands, but also from continental locations north of the Subtropical Front including Australia, South Africa, South America and Zealandia. We find that the Antarctic Peninsula is the region at highest risk for non-native species introductions arriving by natural oceanic dispersal, highlighting the vulnerability of this region, which is also at risk from introductions via ship traffic and rapid warming. The widespread connections with sub-Antarctic and temperate landmasses, combined with an increasing abundance of marine anthropogenic rafting vectors, poses a growing risk to Antarctic marine ecosystems, especially as environmental conditions around Antarctica are projected to become more suitable for non-native species in the future.

The Influence of Extratropical Ocean on the PNA Teleconnection: Role of Atmosphere‐Ocean Coupling

AbstractThe Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern is a major low‐frequency variability in boreal winter. A recent modeling study suggested that PNA variability increases through extratropical atmosphere‐ocean coupling, but the effect was not fully extracted due to a particular experimental design. By comparing coupled and two sets of uncoupled large‐ensemble global model simulations, here we show that the PNA‐induced horseshoe‐shaped sea‐surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the North Pacific returns a non‐negligible influence on the PNA itself. Its magnitude depends on the presence or absence of atmosphere‐ocean coupling. The coupling accounts for ∼16% of the PNA variance, while the horseshoe‐shaped SST anomaly explains only 5% under the uncoupled condition. The coupling reduces the damping of available potential energy by modulating turbulent heat fluxes and precipitation, magnifying the PNA variance. Precipitation processes in the extratropics as well as tropics are therefore important for realistically representing PNA variability and thereby regional weather and climate.

Climate sensitivity and relative humidity changes in global storm-resolving model simulations of climate change

Climate sensitivity and relative humidity changes in global storm-resolving model simulations of climate change

Ocean Heat Convergence and North Atlantic multidecadal heat content variability

Abstract We construct an upper ocean (0-1000m) North Atlantic heat budget (26°-67°N) for the period 1950-2020 using multiple observational datasets and an eddy-permitting global ocean model. On multidecadal timescales ocean heat transport convergence controls ocean heat content (OHC) tendency in most regions of the North Atlantic with little role for diffusive processes. In the subpolar North Atlantic (45°N-67°N) heat transport convergence is explained by geostrophic currents whereas ageostrophic currents make a significant contribution in the subtropics (26°N-45°N). The geostrophic contribution in all regions is dominated by anomalous advection across the time-mean temperature gradient although other processes make a significant contribution particularly in the subtropics. The timescale and spatial distribution of the anomalous geostrophic currents are consistent with a simple model of basin scale thermal Rossby waves propagating westwards/northwestwards in the subpolar gyre and multidecadal variations in regional OHC are explained by geostrophic currents periodically coming into alignment with the mean temperature gradient as the Rossby wave passes through. The global ocean model simulation shows that multidecadal variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are synchronized with the ocean heat transport convergence consistent with modulation of the west-east pressure gradient by the propagating Rossby wave.

Fine Cloud Structures on a Hard Snowball Earth

AbstractEarth may have been globally ice‐covered at least two times during the Cryogenian Period (720–635 Ma). Previous studies showed that clouds could strongly warm a hard snowball Earth and promote its deglaciation. However, the understanding of clouds was largely based on coarse‐resolution global simulations with parameterized convection and clouds, or high‐resolution cloud‐resolving simulations with explicit convection and clouds but limited to a small domain without the effects of large‐scale circulation. Here we present the first global non‐hydrostatic high‐resolution (30 km) simulation to investigate snowball clouds and their radiative effects. We show that spatial‐temporal cloud distributions exhibit clear meanders (patterns of curved lines rather than straight lines along the west‐east direction) and strong variabilities, which result from the tight interactions among the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone, Hadley cells, and baroclinic instability. The net cloud radiative effect is around 20 W m−2 in the tropics, consistent with previous global general circulation model simulations.

Snow depth time series Generation: Effective simulation at multiple time scales

Snow depth (SD) is a crucial variable of the water, energy, and nutrient cycles, impacting water quantity and quality, the occurrence of floods and droughts, snow-related hazards, and sub-surface ecological functions. As a result, quantifying SD dynamics is crucial for several scientific and practical applications. Ground measurements of SD provide information at sparse locations, and physical global model simulations provide information at relatively coarse spatial resolutions. An approach to complement this information is using stochastic models that generate time series of hydroclimatic variables, preserving their statistical properties in a computationally-effective manner. However, stochastic generation methods to produce SD time series exclusively do not exist in the literature. Here, we apply a stochastic model to produce synthetic daily SD time series trained by 448 stations in Canada. We show that the model captures key statistical properties of the observed records, including the daily distributions of zero and non-zero SD, temporal clustering (i.e., autocorrelation), and seasonal patterns. The model also excelled in capturing the observed higher-order L-moments at multiple temporal scales, with biases between simulated and observed L-skewness and L-kurtosis within (-0.1, +0.1) for 93.0 % and 98.3 % of the stations, respectively. The stochastic modelling approach introduced here advances the generation of SD time series, which are needed to develope Earth-system models and assess the risk of snowmelt flooding that lead to severe damage and fatalities.

The impact of stratospheric aerosol heating on the frozen hydrometeor transport pathways in the tropical tropopause layer

The exceptionally low temperature in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) restricts the amount of water vapor entering the stratosphere. However, moisture may also enter the stratosphere in its frozen state, and the amount thereof depends on hydrometeor sedimentation and air vertical velocity. We investigate the sensitivity of frozen hydrometeor transport pathways to substantial perturbations of the TTL temperature structure in global storm-resolving model simulations. A special focus is laid on the question which process—convection, slow upwelling within the background velocity field, in-cloud radiative processes, gravity waves or turbulence—is responsible for most of the transport. The study shows that the main contribution to the frozen hydrometeor flux is cold-point overshooting convection in both the control and perturbed scenario. The average convective event transports an increased amount of frozen hydrometeors at the cold-point tropopause, when the later is warmed. This finding can be explained by scaling of frozen moisture content with Clausius Clapeyron in a saturated environment.

Modulation of Tropical Convection‐Circulation Interaction by Aerosol Indirect Effects in Convective Self‐Aggregation Simulations of a Gray Zone Global Model

AbstractDisentangling the response of tropical convective updrafts to enhanced aerosol concentrations has been challenging. Leading theories for explaining the influence of aerosol concentrations on tropical convection are based on the dynamical response of convection to changes in cloud microphysics, neglecting possible changes in the environment. In recent years, global convection‐permitting models (GCPM) have been developed to circumvent problems arising from imposing artificial scale separation on physical processes associated with deep convection. Here, we use a global model in the convective gray zone that partially simulates deep convection to investigate how enhanced concentrations of aerosols that act as cloud condensate nuclei (CCN) impact tropical convection features by modulating the convection‐circulation interaction. Results from a pair of idealized non‐rotating radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations show that the enhanced CCN concentration leads to weaker large‐scale circulation, the closeness of deep convective systems to the moist cluster edges, and more mid‐level cloud water at an equilibrium state in which convective self‐aggregation occurred. Correspondingly, the enhanced CCN concentration modulates how the physical processes that support or oppose convective aggregation maintain the aggregated state at equilibrium. Overall, the enhanced CCN concentration facilitates the development of deep convection in a drier environment but reduces mean precipitation. Our results emphasize the importance of allowing atmospheric phenomena to evolve continuously across spatial and temporal scales in simulations when investigating the response of tropical convection to changes in cloud microphysics.

Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric teleconnections are intensified by extratropical ocean-atmosphere coupling

The role of extratropical atmosphere-ocean coupling in generating and maintaining large-scale atmospheric low-frequency variability remains an open question owing to vigorous atmospheric internal fluctuations. Here, we use coupled and uncoupled large-ensemble global model simulations to clarify how the coupling intensifies atmospheric teleconnection patterns in the Northern Hemisphere winter. We show that the extratropical coupling selectively enhances the variance of three principal modes of variability, explaining 13%, 11%, and 10% of the total variance of Pacific/North American, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Warm-Arctic Cold-Eurasian patterns, respectively. Atmosphere-ocean coupling reduces damping to lower-tropospheric available potential energy, which in turn increases kinetic energy by changing energy transfer within the mode. The extratropical ocean is overall passive (adjustable) to large-scale atmospheric variation, thus contributing to the prominence of these modes. The geographical dependence of available potential energy damping suggests the existence of mode-specific sweet spots where the influence of coupling operates efficiently, providing a clue to improving the model biases in variance and signal-to-noise ratio of these modes.

Impacts of ice-nucleating particles on cirrus clouds and radiation derived from global model simulations with MADE3 in EMAC

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols can act as ice-nucleating particles (INPs) and influence the formation and the microphysical properties of cirrus clouds, resulting in distinct climate effects. We employ a global aerosol–climate model, including a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme and a parameterization for aerosol-induced ice formation in cirrus clouds, to quantify the climate impact of INPs on cirrus clouds (simulated period 2001–2010). The model considers mineral dust, soot, crystalline ammonium sulfate, and glassy organics as INPs in the cirrus regime. Several sensitivity experiments are performed to analyse various aspects of the simulated INP–cirrus effect regarding (i) the ice-nucleating potential of the INPs, (ii) the inclusion of ammonium sulfate and organic particles as INPs in the model, and (iii) the model representations of vertical updraughts. The resulting global radiative forcing of the total INP–cirrus effect, considering all different INP types, assuming a smaller and a larger ice-nucleating potential of INPs, to explore the range of possible forcings due to uncertainties in the freezing properties of INPs, is simulated as −28 and −55 mW m−2, respectively. While the simulated impact of glassy organic INPs is mostly small and not statistically significant, ammonium sulfate INPs contribute a considerable radiative forcing, which is nearly as large as the combined effect of mineral dust and soot INPs. Additionally, the anthropogenic INP–cirrus effect is analysed considering the difference between present-day (2014) and pre-industrial conditions (1750) and amounts to −29 mW m−2, assuming a larger ice-nucleating potential of INPs. In a further sensitivity experiment we analyse the effect of highly efficient INPs proposed for cirrus cloud seeding as a means to reduce global warming by climate engineering. However, the results indicate that this approach risks an overseeding of cirrus clouds and often results in positive radiative forcings of up to 86 mW m−2 depending on number concentration of seeded INPs. Idealized experiments with prescribed vertical velocities highlight the crucial role of the model dynamics for the simulated INP–cirrus effects. For example, resulting forcings increase about 1 order of magnitude (−42 to −340 mW m−2) when increasing the prescribed vertical velocity (from 1 to 50 cm s−1). The large discrepancy in the magnitude of the simulated INP–cirrus effect between different model studies emphasizes the need for future detailed analyses and efforts to reduce this uncertainty and constrain the resulting climate impact of INPs.

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

AbstractGround heat flux (G0) is a key component of the land‐surface energy balance of high‐latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G0 data (measured or modeled) for snow‐free period as a reference. When observed G0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state‐of‐the‐art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.