Global Liquidity Research Articles

Debt deleveraging and the exchange rate

Deleveraging from high debt can provoke deep recession with significant international side effects. Swings in the nominal exchange rate and large variations in consumption, output, and terms of trade can happen during the adjustment. All these movements are inefficient and interesting trade-offs emerge from the perspective of global welfare. The optimal adjustment to global imbalances should not necessarily require large movements in the nominal exchange rate. A global liquidity trap can be desirable when countries are more open to trade.

Too Much Global Liquidity from Central Banks Distorts Financial Markets and Undermines Economic Growth

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing global recession central banks flooded the financial system with liquidity to overcome fears of contagion that froze the credit markets and threatened the solvency of major banks. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve Bank along with central banks in Europe, China, Japan and elsewhere engaged in quantitative easing involving the purchase of respective sovereign debt securities creating money in the process. As a consequence, interest rates have been at historic lows to accommodate economic recovery. While initially beneficial for calming the financial markets and jump-starting the economy, five years hence aggressive monetary policy still has failed to achieve the economic growth required to create jobs and restore prosperity. Rather, abundant global liquidity and attendant low interest rates have inflated stock prices, encouraged risky investing in the chase for higher returns, devalued currencies in a race to the bottom to compete in export markets, and inflated commodity prices until slow growth in China curtailed demand. In addition, the low interest rates suppress discipline in government borrowing while sovereign debt hovers at crisis levels. Meanwhile, savers are punished to the detriment of the economy as the national income that would have been generated by normal interest rates is forfeited. Furthermore, many speculate about potential inflation arising from all the liquidity when robust growth resumes.Rather than create potential asset bubbles in the financial markets, significant fiscal reform is needed to revive the real economy from its protracted slow growth pattern. Tax cuts, spending reduction and regulatory relief encourage investment in plant, equipment and inventory that creates jobs that stimulate the consumer sector. Indeed, such policy would break the logjam created by uncertainty about taxes, regulation and the activities of the Fed. Tax increases on the wealthy are counterproductive. Sequestration is hardly enough. Stifling energy production is irresponsible. And continued monetary interference is ineffective.

The Impact of the Global Liquidity on the Korean Inflation

The Impact of the Global Liquidity on the Korean Inflation

Liquidity commonalities in the corporate CDS market around the 2007–2012 financial crisis

This study presents robust empirical evidence suggesting the existence of significant liquidity commonalities in the corporate Credit Default Swap (CDS) market. Using daily data for 401 firms from 24 countries in the period 2005–2012 we find that these commonalities vary over time, being stronger in periods in which the global, counterparty, and funding liquidity risks increase. However, commonalities do not depend on firm's characteristics. The level of the liquidity commonalities differs across economic areas being on average stronger in the European Monetary Union. The effect of market liquidity is stronger than the effect of industry-specific liquidity. Finally, we document the existence of asymmetries in commonalities around financial distress episodes such that the effect of market liquidity is stronger when the CDS market price increases.

Understanding global liquidity

We explore the concept of global liquidity based on a factor model estimated using a large set of financial and macroeconomic variables from 24 advanced and emerging market economies. We measure global liquidity conditions based on the common global factors in the dynamics of liquidity indicators. By imposing theoretically motivated sign restrictions on factor loadings, we achieve a structural identification of the factors. The results suggest that global liquidity conditions are largely driven by three common factors and can therefore not be summarised by a single indicator. These three factors can be identified as global monetary policy, global credit supply and global credit demand.

The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies

AbstractThis paper analyses the importance of global shocks for the global economic developments and national policymakers from a novel perspective. On the one hand, we examine whether global factors convey additional information about monetary conditions not summarised by national aggregates. More specifically, we keep an eye on the question whether domestic monetary policies have become less effective in the wake of financial globalisation. We adopt a FAVAR framework to derive structural shocks on a worldwide level and their impact on other global and also national variables. We estimate our macromodel using quarterly data from Q1 1984 to Q4 2012 for the G7 countries plus the euro area. According to our results, global liquidity shocks significantly influence the global economy at the commodity price level. However, some other common shocks originating from house prices and GDP play a role at the global level as well.

Monetary Policy, Global Liquidity and Commodity Price Dynamics

This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. For this purpose, we aggregate data for major OECD countries and follow the Johansen/Juselius cointegrated VAR approach. Our empirical model supports the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity prices and goods prices movements. The cointegrated VAR model fits with the data for the analysed period from the 1970s until 2008 very well. Our empirical results appear to be overall robust since they pass inter alia a series of recursive tests and are stable for varying compositions of the commodity indices. The empirical evidence is in line with theoretical considerations. The inclusion of commodity prices helps to identify a significant monetary transmission process from global liquidity to other macro variables such as goods prices. We find further support of the conjecture that monetary aggregates convey useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this clear empirical pattern it appears justified to argue that global liquidity merits attention in the same way as the worldwide level of interest rates received in the recent debate about the world savings and liquidity glut as one of the main drivers of the current financial crisis, if not possibly more.

Monetary policy, global liquidity and commodity price dynamics

This paper examines the interactions between money, interest rates, goods and commodity prices at a global level. Aggregated data for major OECD countries are therefore analysed in a cointegrated VAR framework. Our empirical results for the period ranging from the 1970s to 2008 support the view that, when controlling for interest rate changes and thus different monetary policy stances, money (defined as a global liquidity aggregate) is still a key factor to determine the long-run homogeneity of commodity and goods prices movements.

THE INFLUENCE OF CURRENT GLOBAL LIQUIDITY TRENDS ON ECONOMIC STABILITY IN EMERGING COUNTRIES

The link between economic and financial conditions in emerging markets and global liquidity is not obvious. The article starts by explaining what global liquidity is and how it is defined in international literature. It then describes how to measure global liquidity and what factors should be taken into consideration in order to obtain reliable results. The next part of the article describes the influence of global stability on emerging markets and the extension of current global liquidity trends onto these markets. The following part is devoted to the role of global liquidity both at the global and regional level. It describes why global liquidity has just an impact on economic stability. Therefore, there are presented the consequences of current global liquidity on emerging markets countries. The article provides the examples in order to better description of the issue. At the end, the author attempts to answer the question whether the global liquidity poses threat on emerging markets and how the negative consequences of global liquidity trends might be omitted. The main aim of the article is compilation and review of the recent articles concerning the influence of global liquidity on developing countries.

Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers

By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.

Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers

By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.

Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows

This paper provides a definition of global liquidity consistent with its meaning as the “ease of financing” in international financial markets. Using a longer time series and broader sample of countries than in previous studies, it identifies global factors driving cross-border bank flows, alongside country-specific factors. It confirms the explanatory power of US financial conditions, with flows decreasing in market volatility (VIX) and term premia, and increasing in bank leverage, growth in domestic credit and M2. A new finding is that similar variables for other systemic countries – the UK and the Euro Area – are also important, sometimes even more so, consistent with the dominant role of European banks in cross-border banking. Furthermore, recipient country characteristics are found to affect not only the level of country-specific flows, but also the cyclical impact of global liquidity, with sensitivities of flows to banks decreasing with stronger macroeconomic frameworks and better bank regulation, but less so for flows to non-financial firms.

Global Liquidity through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates

This paper examines how the financial activities of non-financial corporates (NFCs) in international markets potentially affects domestic monetary aggregates and financial conditions. Monetary aggregates reflect, in part, the activities of NFCs, who channel capital market financing into the domestic banking system, thereby influencing funding conditions and credit availability. Periods of capital inflows are also those when the domestic currency is appreciating, and such periods of rapid exchange rate appreciation coincide with increases in the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves, increasing the stock of narrow money. The paper examines economic significance of cross-country panel data on monetary aggregates and other measures of non-core bank liabilities. Non-core liabilities that reflect the activities of NFCs reflect broad credit conditions and predict global trade and growth.

Global Liquidity Through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates

Global Liquidity Through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates

Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows

Global Liquidity and Drivers of Cross-Border Bank Flows

Excess Liquidity and Commodity Boom

 Abstract—This paper presents an investigation of whether excess liquidity has been serving as a driving force for the increase in international commodity prices. This study uses a structural VAR model including two global liquidity indicators and the world production index to examine the determinants of international commodity prices. The lending of tolerant international bankers promoted commodity price might increase before the global financial crisis while the international liquidity squeeze brought about their decline after the Lehman Shock. Among commodities, the prices of industrial metals are more attributable to funding liquidity, and the price of crude oil, with a market believed to be more vulnerable to speculative money inflows, has been less dependent on liquidity. Gold is exceptional. It acted as a safe haven during the period of international financial dysfunction.

Capital Controls, Global Liquidity Traps, and the International Policy Trilemma*

AbstractThe zero bound on interest rates introduces a new dimension to the trilemma in international policy. The openness of the international financial market might render monetary policy ineffective, even within a system of fully flexible exchange rates, because shocks that lead to a liquidity trap in one country are propagated through financial markets to other countries. However, the effectiveness of monetary policy can be restored by the imposition of capital controls. We derive the optimal response of monetary policy to a global liquidity trap in the presence of capital controls. We show that, even though capital controls might facilitate effective monetary policy, capital controls are not generally desirable in terms of welfare.

EU‐China Collaboration in the Reform of the International Monetary System: Much Ado About Nothing?

AbstractThe global financial crisis has shown that the current international monetary system (IMS) suffers from an inherent flaw: it depends on US current account deficits for the provision of global liquidity. Under this arrangement, peripheral countries have to accept periodically the debasement of the US dollar. Thus, there are some mutual incentives for the EU and China to reform the current IMS through cooperation. Both are in favour of stable exchange rates, and both are keen to constrain US macroeconomic profligacy. There have been some efforts towards these objectives in the past, especially during the French presidency of the G20 in 2011. However, there has been no significant progress. On the European side, there is not a united and independent Europe which could act as the primary agent of reform. On the Chinese side, Beijing does not see Europe as a reliable partner because the latter is deemed to have a major vested interest in the current regime. As a result, the French government failed to focus the world's attention on the reform of the IMS during G20 Cannes Summit, and the Chinese government has chosen a more unilateral way to internationalise its own currency.

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

Do governments default on debt denominated in their own currency? We introduce a new measure of sovereign credit risk, the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross currency swaps. We find that local currency credit spreads are positive and sizable. Compared with credit spreads on foreign currency denominated debt, local currency credit spreads have lower means, lower cross-country correlations, and are less sensitive to global risk factors. Global risk aversion and liquidity factors can explain more time variation in these credit spread differentials than macroeconomic fundamentals.

Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit

We review extant work on the transmission of monetary policy, both conventional and unconventional, of the major advanced economies to East Asia through monetary policy reactions, integrated bond markets and induced currency appreciation. We present new results on the growth of foreign currency credit, especially US dollar credit, as a transmission mechanism. Restrained growth of dollar credit in Korea contrasts with very rapid growth on the Chinese mainland and in Hong Kong SAR.