Global Land Use Research Articles

Impacts of land use changes from the Hanoi Master Plan 2030 on urban heat islands: Part 2. Influence of global warming

Hanoi City, Vietnam, presented the Hanoi Master Plan 2030 in 2011 to cope with rapid population growth and urbanisation. The main objective of this two-part study was to investigate the impacts of land use changes brought by the master plan on urban heat islands in Hanoi by 2030. This paper analyses the contributions of land use changes and global warming to the future increase in urban temperatures in Hanoi by the 2030s. Firstly, numerical simulations using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) were conducted for the present land use as well as the land use condition of the master plan under the same weather conditions to detect only the impact of land use changes. Secondly, WRF simulations were conducted for the land use condition of the master plan under the influence of global warming in the 2030s utilising the climate data projected by a Global Climate Model (GCM), Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version 5 (MIROC5), via a direct dynamical downscaling method. In the 2030s, the average air temperature increase in existing urban areas was projected to be up to 2.1°C, of which up to 1.5 and 0.6°C are attributable to global warming and land use changes, respectively.

Total global agricultural land footprint associated with UK food supply 1986–2011

Abstract Over the coming decades the global demand for food, and especially for animal products is projected to increase. At the same time, competition for agricultural land is projected to intensify due to a wide range of drivers, including a growing world population, changes in food consumption patterns and bioenergy production. It is therefore vital to understand the relationship between global agricultural land use and the consumption of food. Here we use the United Kingdom as an example to show the agricultural land footprint of a highly developed country over the period 1986–2011. Our analysis shows that the total land footprint of the UK has decreased over time from 25,939 kha in 1987 (3-year mean) to 23,723 kha in 2010 (3-year mean), due to a lower grassland footprint resulting from lower ruminant meat supply. Cropland use has increased slightly from around 8400 kha in 1987 to about 8800 kha in 2010, but has decreased slightly on a per-capita basis as the UK’s population increased over time. Our analysis shows that 85% of the UK’s total land footprint is associated with meat and dairy production, but only 48% of total protein and 32% of total calories derive from livestock products. Our results suggest that, if countries reduce their ruminant product consumption, land could be freed up for other uses, including bio-energy production, forest regrowth, and biodiversity conservation.

How do Europeans want to live in 2040? Citizen visions and their consequences for European land use

The aspirations, motivations and choices of individual European citizens are a major driver of the future of global, European and local land use. However, until now no land use study has explicitly attempted to find out how the general public wants to live in the future. This paper forms a first attempt to survey European citizens to understand their desired future lives in relation to consequences for European land use. We used a crowdsourcing experiment to elicit visions from young Europeans about their lives in 2040. Participants completed a graphic novel around carefully selected questions, allowing them to create a story of their imagined future lives in pictures. The methodology worked well, and the sample seemed reasonably representative albeit skewed towards an educated population. In total, 1131 responses from 29 countries were received. Results show a strong desire for change, and for more sustainable lifestyles. There is desire for local and ecologically friendly food production, to eat less meat, to have access to green infrastructure and the ability to cycle to work. However, international travel remains popular, and the desire for extensive food production and owning detached houses with gardens will likely result in complex land use trade-offs. Future work could focus more specifically on quantifying these trade-offs and inform respondents about the consequences of their lifestyle choices. This was a first attempt to use crowdsourcing to understand citizen visions for their lives in the future, and our lessons learned will help future studies improve representativeness and increase responses.

不同尺度下停歇点湿地对迁徙水鸟的影响研究综述

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 不同尺度下停歇点湿地对迁徙水鸟的影响研究综述 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201510262158 作者: 作者单位: 中国科学院生态环境研究中心,中国科学院生态环境研究中心,中国科学院生态环境研究中心,中国科学院生态环境研究中心 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家"十二五"科技支撑计划项目课题（2012BAC07B04） The effect of stopover wetlands on migratory waterbirds at different scales: a review Author: Affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology,Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:停歇点湿地是迁徙水鸟重要的能量补给地，在水鸟每年的往返迁徙过程中具有十分重要的生态意义。近年来随着全球变化和人类活动增加，迁飞路线上的停歇点湿地正发生剧烈变化。各个停歇点湿地的生境变化及周围环境不仅是影响水鸟栖息地适宜性的重要因素，还改变了各路线上迁徙水鸟的种群大小和群落多样性。分析不同尺度下停歇点湿地影响迁徙水鸟种群变化的主要生态因子和环境因素，不仅有助于理解各停歇点景观变化的生态效应，也可为迁徙水鸟种群保护提供理论支持。首先分析了在栖息地斑块尺度上停歇点湿地内的水、食物、栖息地格局和人类干扰等生态要素对水鸟觅食和栖息活动的影响；其次，分析了景观尺度上湿地周围的气候变化、土地利用和外来生物等环境条件在各停歇点对水鸟栖息地质量的改变；最后，基于多尺度条件下湿地影响因素的耦合效应，分析了当前湿地生境与水鸟种群关系研究中存在的主要问题，并总结了对湿地和水鸟保护的启示。 Abstract:Stopover wetlands are important refueling stations for numerous migratory waterbird species, and are ecologically significant in the annual cycle of birds. Recently, stopover wetlands located on flyways were faced with dramatic changes owing to global warming and increasing human activities. Previous studies have suggested that both habitat and environmental factors of these wetlands contributed to the habitat suitability of various species, and the key factors affecting the abundance and diversity of waterbird communities. Therefore, it would be helpful to understand the ecological effects of landscape changes at each stopover by analyzing the diverse habitats and environmental factors that affect various waterbird populations during migration. Furthermore, it would provide theoretical support necessary to formulate effective conservation strategies. In this review, we systematically analyzed how habitat factors such as water body, food resources, habitat configuration, and human disturbance affect the foraging and resting of waterbirds at a local scale. Then, we discussed various environmental contexts, including global warming, land use, and exotic species, that indirectly affect habitat suitability and bird migration at the landscape scale. Finally, on the basis of the coupling effects of various influencing factors that were related to stopover wetlands at different scales, we summarized some shortages based on the research of the present relationships between wetlands and waterbirds, and suggested some priorities for future studies and environmental conservation. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Accounting for monogastric livestock as a driver in global land use and cover change assessments

ABSTRACTLand systems are described based on various characteristics, including land cover composition and agricultural production. However, it is uncertain to what extent livestock, particularly monogastric livestock, determines land systems. We included monogastrics in a land system classification, and statistically analyzed the land cover composition and agricultural production of otherwise similar land systems with and without monogastric livestock. The results indicate that land systems with monogastrics are statistically different from their counterparts in the classification without monogastrics in terms of grassland area and crop yields, but are less different in terms of tree area, crop area, and ruminant livestock production. We then used a land systems map that includes monogastrics in the classification and a similar map that does not include monogastrics to project future changes in a novel manner that integrates livestock as a determinant of land systems. The results show that including monogastrics in otherwise similar projections yields less cropland intensification and more cropland expansion in several world regions, including Northern Africa and the Middle East. Other regions, such as Europe and Australia, were characterized by less decrease or more increase in tree area in the application with monogastrics, mainly due to the occurrence of open forests with monogastrics. This study prompts a call for improved characterization of land systems for land use and cover change (LUCC) assessments in order to better represent LUCC driven by monogastric livestock.

Climate and land use changes effects on soil organic carbon stocks in a Mediterranean semi-natural area.

A thorough knowledge of the effects of climate and land use changes on the soil carbon pool is critical to planning effective strategies for adaptation and mitigation in future scenarios of global climate and land use change. In this study, we used CarboSOIL model to predict changes in soil organic carbon stocks in a semi-natural area of Southern Spain in three different time horizons (2040, 2070, 2100), considering two general circulation models (BCM2 and ECHAM5) and three IPCC scenarios (A1b, A2, B2). The effects of potential land use changes from natural vegetation (Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland) to agricultural land (olive grove and cereal) on soil organic carbon stocks were also evaluated. Predicted values of SOC contents correlated well those measured (R2 ranging from 0.71 at 0-25cm to 0.97 at 50-75cm) showing the efficiency of the model. Results showed substantial differences among time horizons, climate and land use scenarios and soil depth with larger decreases of soil organic carbon stocks in the long term (2100 time horizon) and particularly in olive groves. The combination of climate and land use scenarios (in particular conversion from current 'dehesa' to olive groves) resulted in yet higher losses of soil organic carbon stocks, e.g. -30, -15 and -33% in the 0-25, 25-50 and 50-75cm sections respectively. This study shows the importance of soil organic carbon stocks assessment under both climate and land use scenarios at different soil sections and point towards possible directions for appropriate land use management in Mediterranean semi natural areas.

Life cycle environmental consequences of grass-fed and dairy beef production systems in the Northeastern United States

Innovative strategies are needed to improve the sustainability of beef production and consumption systems. Increasing reliance on regional or local food systems may improve resilience, and consumer demand for such foods is high. In the Northeastern U.S., the dairy sector may provide beef at a low environmental cost relative to other systems due to multi-functionality (i.e., milk and meat outputs). Additionally, landscape and market factors indicate suitability and demand for regional grass-fed beef. We used ISO-compliant life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the environmental burdens of grass-fed beef with management-intensive grazing (GF) and confinement dairy beef (DB) production systems in the Northeastern U.S. The impact scope included global warming potential, eutrophication and acidification potential, fossil fuel and water depletion, and agricultural land use. The foundation of the production system models was a herd-level, life cycle livestock feed requirements model, which we adapted and applied for the first time within LCA. Per kg carcass weight beef produced, DB had lower global warming potential, eutrophication potential, acidification potential, and agricultural land use than GF with higher fossil fuel depletion and water depletion. Calculating eutrophication and acidification per hectare agricultural land resulted in lower impacts for GF compared to DB. Maintaining the breeding herd accounted for over half of GF (60%) and DB (52%) impacts on average across categories. Sensitivity analyses indicated potential pasture carbon sequestration and lower enteric methane emissions under management-intensive grazing may substantially reduce the carbon footprint of GF (though not lower than DB), which should be explored with further research. Future research should also examine holistic strategies to reduce regional GF and DB system footprints, such as substituting food waste for traditional feeds and accounting for ecosystem services provided by pasture-based farming systems within LCA.

Orienting rocky desertification towards sustainable land use: An advanced remote sensing tool to guide the conservation policy

Due to non-sustainable land management, desertification has been occurring widely across the world and continues to be a global land use problem. In this context, appropriate methodological tools, which can provide a biased estimation of desertification, are critical for learning from past failures and local successes in orienting desertification towards sustainable land use. This paper proposes a locally adaptive multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA) algorithm to extract the rocky desertification information from medium resolution images at subpixel level and applies it to the case of Danjiangkou reservoir region (DRR), China. Quantitative comparisons show that the locally adaptive MESMA has achieved more accurate and reliable estimations of rocky desertification information in DRR than the traditional MESMA. An inversed U-shaped trend is observed for desertified land with different severity levels from 1987 and 2013 in DRR. In particular, the inflection point roughly emerged in period 2000–2005. Casual mechanism-based regressions demonstrate that such dynamics of rocky desertification are closely coupled with socioeconomic, biophysical, and policy factors. More specifically, we identify a significantly positive role of land conservation policy in combating and relieving rocky desertification in DRR. Positive effects are observed particularly through afforestation, investment, and professionals input. Based on the conclusions and lessons of DRR, I finally make relevant recommendations for formulating policies and strategies that attempt to orient desertification towards sustainable land use. The proposed locally adaptive MESMA can act as an advanced remote sensing tool to guide the conservation policy.

Mineral controls on soil organic C stabilization in alpine and subalpine soils in the Central Pyrenees: Insights from wet oxidation methods, mineral dissolution treatment and radiocarbon dating

Studies on the mineral stabilization of soil organic carbon (SOC) and the radiocarbon age of Pyrenean mountain soils have not been conducted to date. This study assessed the SOC concentrations, the interaction of SOC with the mineral phase (stabilization), the radiocarbon age and the relationships between SOC and dithionite-, oxalate-, and pyrophosphate-extractable Fe, Al and Si contents on four summits in Ordesa National Park (Central Pyrenees, Spain). The selected summits represented a gradient in plant community composition from subalpine (2242ma.s.l.) to nival (3022m) environments. Soil samples (0–10cm) were physico-chemically fractionated and exposed to Na2S2O8 and H2O2 oxidation and to mineral dissolution with HF. The average SOC concentration in the <20μm fraction decreased with increasing elevation (from 80.1 to 15.0gCkg dry soil−1 at 2242 and 3022m, respectively). The H2O2- and Na2S2O8-resistant SOC fraction increased with elevation, and was mainly controlled by oxalate-extractable Si (Sio), i.e., 69.3 and 66.7% of the variability was explained by the Na2S2O8persulfate- and H2O2-oxidation fractions, respectively. The oxalate-extractable Al (Alo), dithionate-extractable Al (Ald), pyrophosphate-extractable Al (Alp), and indicators Alp/Alo and Alo+Feo were more important for SOC stabilization on the two lower summits (2242m and 2519m) than on the two higher summits (2800m and 3022m). In contrast, the HF-soluble SOC fraction was not correlated with the mineral indicators. The largest percentages of Na2S2O8- and H2O2-resistant SOC fractions were found in one of the higher summits, where the greatest 14C age was measured. The radiocarbon analyses indicated that the 14C age of the mineral-associated SOC ranged from 825 and 830yr BP on the two lower summits to 10,500 and ca. 16,000yr BP on the two higher summits. Multivariate analysis, i.e., non-multidimensional scaling (NMDS) analysis, highlighted the relationship between plant community composition at the different summits and the facing slopes and the analysed soil variables. A clear detailed description of SOC and stabilization in mountain ecosystems is needed to enable further predictions of soil C gains and losses related to the expected global changes, i.e., T increase, precipitation regime and land use changes.

Attaining food and environmental security in an era of globalization

Attaining the twin goals of food and environmental security in the coming decades poses a significant sustainability challenge. This paper examines the food and environmental security implications of a range of policies affecting the global food economy and terrestrial ecosystems, first in the context of historically segmented markets, and secondly in a hypothetical future world of fully integrated crop commodity markets. We begin by revisiting history, considering how food production and global land use would have evolved over the period: 1961–2006 in the presence of greater market integration. We find that there would have been greater disparities in regional crop output growth, with regions experiencing higher productivity growth tending to expand more rapidly under this counterfactual experiment. Going forward, greater market integration can be expected to reshape the way we think about future food and environmental security. In the presence of continued market segmentation, strong population growth, accompanied by robust overall income projections, results in exceptionally high demand growth, rising prices and increased non-farm undernutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by 2050. On the other hand, if markets are fully integrated, relative rates of productivity growth become key to the regional composition of world crop output and agricultural production and cropland grow much more slowly in SSA. We explore the implications of four policy initiatives aimed at improving food security and environmental outcomes, including enhanced on-farm productivity and reductions in post-harvest losses in SSA, reductions in food waste in the wealthy economies, and a global terrestrial carbon policy. We also evaluate the potential impacts of climate change under these two trade regimes. Our results suggest that, in some cases, the food and terrestrial implications will be radically different in a more integrated global economy.

A cellular automata downscaling based 1 km global land use datasets (2010–2100)

Global climate and environmental change studies require detailed land-use and land-cover (LULC) information about the past, present, and future. In this paper, we discuss a methodology for downscaling coarse-resolution (i.e., half-degree) future land use scenarios to finer (i.e., 1km) resolutions at the global scale using a grid-based spatially explicit cellular automata (CA) model. We account for spatial heterogeneity from topography, climate, soils, and socioeconomic variables. The model uses a global 30m land cover map (2010) as the base input, a variety of biogeographic and socioeconomic variables, and an empirical analysis to downscale coarse-resolution land use information (specifically urban, crop and pasture). The output of this model offers the most current and finest-scale future LULC dynamics from 2010 to 2100 (with four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios—RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) at a 1km resolution within a globally consistent framework. The data are freely available for download, and will enable researchers to study the impacts of LULC change at the local scale.

From grid to field: Assessing quality of gridded weather data for agricultural applications

Abstract High quality measured weather data (MWD) are not available in many agricultural regions across the globe. As a result, many studies that dealt with global climate change, land use, and food security scenarios and emerging agricultural decision support tools have relied on gridded weather data (GWD) to estimate crop phenology and crop yields. An issue is the agreement of GWD with MWD and the degree to which this agreement may influence the utility of GWD for agricultural research. The objectives of this study were: (i) to compare the agreement of two widely used gridded weather databases (GWDs) (Daymet and PRISM) and MWD, (ii) to evaluate their robustness at simulating maize growth and development, and (iii) to examine how GWD compare relative to weather data interpolated from existing meteorological stations for which MWD are available. The U.S. Corn Belt, a region that accounts for 43 and 34% of respective global maize and soybean production, was used as a case of study because of its dense weather station network and high-quality MWD. Historical daily MWD were retrieved from 45 locations across the region, resulting in ca . 1300 site-years. To test the accuracy of GWDs, separate simulations of maize yield and development were performed, separately for the two GWDs and MWD, using a well-validated maize crop model. For both GWDs, small biases were observed for temperature and growing degree-days in relation with MWD. However, accuracy was much lower for relative humidity, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and degree of seasonal water deficit. There was close agreement in duration of vegetative and reproductive phases between GWD and MWD, with root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 3 to 7 days for the different crop phases and GWDs. However, robustness of GWDs to reproduce maize yields simulated using MWD was lower as indicated by the RMSE (18 and 24% of average yield for Daymet and PRISM, respectively). There was also a high proportion of site-years (20 and 32% for Daymet and PRISM, respectively) exhibiting a yield deviation >15% in relation to the yield simulated using MWD. Data interpolation using a dense weather station network resulted in lower RMSE% for simulated phenology and yields relative to GWDs. Findings from this study indicate that GWD cannot replace MWD as a basis for field-scale agricultural applications. While GWD appear to be robust for applications that only require temperature for prediction of crop stages, GWD should not be used for applications that depend on accurate estimation of crop water balance, crop growth, and yield. We propose that the evaluation performed in this study should be taken as a routinary activity for any research or agricultural decision tool that relies on GWD.

Linking country level food supply to global land and water use and biodiversity impacts: The case of Finland

The agricultural products consumed in Finland are increasingly grown on foreign farms. We analyze the Finnish imports of food and feed crops from 1986 to 2011 by products and by their geographic origin drawing a link to environmental impacts. The share of foreign crops consumed in Finland nearly doubled in the study period. The imports increased especially with commodities that could also be produced domestically. While the production of food increasingly shifted abroad, also the exports from Finland increased. >90% of the blue water of the Finnish crop supply came from foreign water resources. We map the results of land and water use together with their impacts on global biodiversity, and show that most of the land and water use related biodiversity impacts (>93%) associated with the Finnish food consumption are related to the imports and therefore taken place outside the Finnish borders. The use of multiple environmental indicators can help identifying products and spatial hotspots associated with the most severe environmental impacts of the Finnish crop imports contributing to a more holistic decision-making and the promoting of sustainable food consumption both domestically and globally.

Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices

This review seeks to survey, understand, and reconcile the widely divergent estimates of long-run global crop output, land use, and price projections in the current literature. We review the history of such projections and the different models and assumptions used in these exercises. We then introduce an analytical partial equilibrium model of the global crops sector, which provides a lens through which we can evaluate this previous work. The resulting decomposition of model responses into demand, extensive supply, and intensive supply elasticities offers important insights into the diversity of model parameterizations being employed by the existing models. Along with the methodology for implementing productivity growth, this helps explain some of the divergences in results. We employ a numerical version of the analytical model, which serves as an emulator of this entire class of models, to explore how uncertainties in the common underlying drivers and economic responses contribute to uncertain projections of output, prices, and land use in 2050. We place each of the published estimates reviewed here into the resulting empirical distribution of outcomes at mid-century. In addition, we quantify the sensitivity of these projections to model inputs. Our findings suggest that the top priority for future research should be improved estimation of agricultural factor supply elasticities, a topic that has been largely neglected in recent decades.

Human appropriation of land for food: The role of diet

Human appropriation of land for food production has fundamentally altered the Earth system, with impacts on water, soil, air quality, and the climate system. Changes in population, dietary preferences, technology and crop productivity have all played important roles in shaping today’s land use. In this paper, we explore how past and present developments in diets impact on global agricultural land use. We introduce an index for the Human Appropriation of Land for Food (HALF), and use it to isolate the effects of diets on agricultural land areas, including the potential consequences of shifts in consumer food preferences. We find that if the global population adopted consumption patterns equivalent to particular current national per capita rates, agricultural land use area requirements could vary over a 14-fold range. Within these variations, the types of food commodities consumed are more important than the quantity of per-capita consumption in determining the agricultural land requirement, largely due to the impact of animal products and in particular ruminant species. Exploration of the average diets in the USA and India (which lie towards but not at global consumption extremes) provides a framework for understanding land use impacts arising from different food consumption habits. Hypothetically, if the world were to adopt the average Indian diet, 55% less agricultural land would be needed to satisfy demand, while global consumption of the average USA diet would necessitate 178% more land. Waste and over-eating are also shown to be important. The area associated with food waste, including over-consumption, given global adoption of the consumption patterns of the average person in the USA, was found to be twice that required for all food production given an average Indian per capita consumption. Therefore, measures to influence future diets and reduce food waste could substantially contribute towards global food security, as well as providing climate change mitigation options.

Benchmarking the environmental performance of best management practice and genetic improvements in Egyptian aquaculture using life cycle assessment

Egyptian aquaculture is gaining importance as an affordable and nutritious source of animal protein among Egyptians. Nile tilapia dominates production (77% of total production), followed by carps (17%) and mullets (11%). Egyptian tilapia farmers are, however, facing challenges with regards to financial viability and poor water quality. Fish farms are also contributing towards water pollution and other environmental impacts. In order to improve the situation, WorldFish launched the IEIDEAS project in 2011 with the ambition to train farmers in best management practices (BMP) and distribute the 9th generation of the Abbassa strain (G9). The present study aimed at evaluating any relative environmental gains that BMP and G9 offers compared to conventional farming using life cycle assessment (LCA). Inventory data representing 137 farmers and four groups (control, BMP, G9 and BMP+G9) were evaluated. Life cycle impact assessment results including quantitative uncertainties were then calculated and statistically tested, using Monte Carlo analysis and Wilcoxon paired significance test. Five impact categories were explored: global warming, eutrophication, acidification, freshwater consumption and land use. The G9 stain offered the greatest improvements across the evaluated impact categories, significantly reducing environmental impacts with between 12% and 36%. BMP, in the meantime, only offered significant improvements compared to the control with regards to eutrophication, acidification, freshwater consumption and land use. Meanwhile, BMP+G9 performed comparably to only G9 except for eutrophication where it had a significantly larger environmental footprint. More efficient feed utilization and higher productivity were the main reasons for the environmental improvements. Additional improvements that should be explored include improved feeds made of sustainably sourced raw materials, and better pond water management, including probiotics and paddle-wheels. Statement of relevanceBMP and improved stains help reduce environmental impacts

Changes in butterfly distributions and species assemblages on a Neotropical mountain range in response to global warming and anthropogenic land use

AbstractAimTo assess the changes in the elevational distribution of 151 butterfly species over a period of 22 years (1988–2011) and investigate whether these changes are related to regional global warming and land use change.LocationSierra de Juárez, Oaxaca, Mexico.MethodsButterflies were surveyed at eight sites spanning elevations ranging from 117 m to 3000 m in 1988, and the same sites were resurveyed in 2010–2011. Changes in the elevational distribution of species and the structure and composition of species assemblages were compared between surveys. The results were interpreted in the context of land use and climate change in the region.ResultsButterfly species had shifted their distributions uphill by approximately 145 m on average. Significantly more species (78) showed an uphill shift in their distributions than a downhill shift (32 species). Species occurring above 1000 m elevation had shifted their distribution to an extent that matched the range shift expected under the recorded temperature changes. However, for species occurring below 1000 m elevation, and for all species combined, uphill range shifts were significantly less than expected based solely on the increase in temperature. Land use change over the study period was more pronounced at low elevations, and these butterfly assemblages are now dominated by generalist species.Main conclusionsOur results represent the first concrete evidence of shifts in elevation distribution of a large Neotropical butterfly community, attributable to increased regional temperatures. At high elevations, land use change is minimal and climate change appears to be the main driver of changes to distributions and assemblages, and the main conservation threat. However, extensive land use change has been the main driver of changes to butterfly communities at lower elevations.

Downscaling land use and land cover from the Global Change Assessment Model for coupling with Earth system models

Abstract. The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used to project future societal and environmental scenarios, based on economic modeling and on a detailed representation of food and energy production systems. The terrestrial module in GCAM represents agricultural activities and ecosystems dynamics at the subregional scale, and must be downscaled to be used for impact assessments in gridded models (e.g., climate models). In this study, we present the downscaling algorithm of the GCAM model, which generates gridded time series of global land use and land cover (LULC) from any GCAM scenario. The downscaling is based on a number of user-defined rules and drivers, including transition priorities (e.g., crop expansion preferentially into grasslands rather than forests) and spatial constraints (e.g., nutrient availability). The default parameterization is evaluated using historical LULC change data, and a sensitivity experiment provides insights on the most critical parameters and how their influence changes regionally and in time. Finally, a reference scenario and a climate mitigation scenario are downscaled to illustrate the gridded land use outcomes of different policies on agricultural expansion and forest management. Several features of the downscaling can be modified by providing new input data or changing the parameterization, without any edits to the code. Those features include spatial resolution as well as the number and type of land classes being downscaled, thereby providing flexibility to adapt GCAM LULC scenarios to the requirements of a wide range of models and applications. The downscaling system is version controlled and freely available.

Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.

Solar park microclimate and vegetation management effects on grassland carbon cycling

Increasing energy demands and the drive towards low carbon (C) energy sources has prompted a rapid increase in ground-mounted solar parks across the world. This represents a significant global land use change with implications for the hosting ecosystems that are poorly understood. In order to investigate the effects of a typical solar park on the microclimate and ecosystem processes, we measured soil and air microclimate, vegetation and greenhouse gas emissions for twelve months under photovoltaic (PV) arrays, in gaps between PV arrays and in control areas at a UK solar park sited on species-rich grassland. Our results show that the PV arrays caused seasonal and diurnal variation in air and soil microclimate. Specifically, during the summer we observed cooling, of up to 5.2 °C, and drying under the PV arrays compared with gap and control areas. In contrast, during the winter gap areas were up to 1.7 °C cooler compared with under the PV arrays and control areas. Further, the diurnal variation in both temperature and humidity during the summer was reduced under the PV arrays. We found microclimate and vegetation management explained differences in the above ground plant biomass and species diversity, with both lower under the PV arrays. Photosynthesis and net ecosystem exchange in spring and winter were also lower under the PV arrays, explained by microclimate, soil and vegetation metrics. These data are a starting point to develop understanding of the effects of solar parks in other climates, and provide evidence to support the optimisation of solar park design and management to maximise the delivery of ecosystem services from this growing land use.