Global Intensity Research Articles

Negative emissions using Mg sourced from desalination brine or natural evaporite deposits

We establish a profitable negative emissions technology that converts desalination brine or salt deposits into saleable products while concurrently mineralizing atmospheric CO2 as Mg-carbonates. The process produces water, gypsum, salt, potash, aggregate, and hydrochloric acid with the ratios of products dependent on the brine or evaporite deposit composition. In addition to the negative emissions realized through direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, the co-products drive out existing production methods resulting in CO2 emissions reduction. Notably, the process uses no chemicals or fossil fuels and can be powered completely by electricity. This not only increases the net CO2 removal it also leverages the decreasing cost of renewables and batteries to increase operating profit. We outline how extant equipment and technologies can be used to implement this process. The net energy usage and CO2 removal of the process are calculated, accounting for differences with current production methods for the co-products. At large enough implementation, some products will saturate their respective markets, converting the excess product into a waste stream. As such, performance indices for the process (e.g., GJ/t-CO2, USD/t-CO2) depend on the extent of implementation. We limit our investigation to prior to such market saturation effects. Assuming the global average CO2 intensity of electricity generation, the process provides 4.1 t-CO2 of emissions reduction for every tonne of negative CO¬ emissions. Per tonne of total CO2 reduction (mitigated+removed), the process operates at an energy consumption of 2.1 GJ/t-CO2, falling to 1.1 GJ/t-CO2 if the system is powered by renewable energy. Via Monte Carlo analysis using global price distributions, we find that even without including a price on CO2 the process operates, on average, at a profit of 196 USD/t-CO2 (total reduction). Applying the process to evaporite deposits of Bischofite or Carnallite provides a profit of 47 USD/t-CO2 and 103 USD/t-CO2 (total reduction), respectively.

Global Supply Chains, Value Added and Production Intensity: Case Semiconductors

Semiconductor chips and their production are foundational for future innovation, future developments of digitalization, and economic prosperity. However, the role of production when discussing who is creating and capturing value across different industrial supply chains has often been underestimated. In this report, we analyze the distribution of the value added in the semiconductor supply chain. Value added analysis is insufficient on its own to understand the importance of production; therefore, we also examine the share of operating profits that has been reinvested in the growth of tangible and intangible assets. Based on value added and reinvesting cycle analysis, we discuss production intensity, and we draw conclusion regarding how important production is for different supply chains and industries.

Approaches for the amelioration of adverse effects of drought stress on crop plants.

Climate change, water scarcity, population growth, and food shortage are some of the threatening challenges being faced in today's world. Among different types of stresses, drought stress presents a persistent challenge for global food production, however, its harshness and intensity are supposed to expand in the imminent future. The most striking effects of drought stress on plants are stunted growth, severe damage to photosynthetic apparatus, reduction in photosynthesis, reduction in seed germination, and nutrient uptake. To deal with the destructive effect of drought stress on plants, it is necessary to consider its effects, mechanisms of action, the agronomic and genetic basis for sustainable management. Therefore, there is an urgent need for sustainable solutions to cope up with the negative impact of drought stress. This review focuses on the detrimental effects of drought stress on plants' morphological, physiological, and biochemical characteristics and recommends suitable drought management techniques to reduce the severity of drought stress. We summarize the effect of drought stress on physiological and biochemical parameters (such as germination, photosynthesis, biomass, water status, and nutrient uptake) and yield. Overall, in this article, we have reviewed the role of different phytohormones, osmolytes, exogenous compounds, proteins, plant growth-promoting microbes (PGPM), omics approaches, and genome editing technologies like clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) and CRISPR-associated protein 9 (CRISPR-Cas9) in alleviating drought effects in plants. We also proposed that developing drought-tolerant plant varieties requires the combined use of biotechnological and agronomic approaches and cutting-edge genome editing (GE) tools.

Integrative potential of educational resources in a modern metropolis

The intensity of globalization and internationalization stimulates activity of population in the world. As a consequence, the number of Russian citizens living and getting education beyond the boundaries of the Russian Federation increases. Special load in this case is on the municipal structures rendering educational services in the Russian language. Quality improvement of teaching Russian and status of educational services in the Russian language are the social priorities and assume serious rearrangement of additional training of Russian language teachers. In this regard, it would be relevant to evaluate professional competences of Russian language teachers in schools abroad; to detect competence lacunas of additional professional education; to correct the detected professional deficits by additional educational programs of various specializations and degrees of complexity. This work is aimed at detection of development strategies of the Center as a tool of distance support for Russian schools abroad. The research methods in this work are theoretical analysis of psychologic and pedagogical, sociological, economic publications devoted to the considered problem; analysis of practices of distance support courses in Russia and abroad; surveying, testing users of existing courses; analysis of expert opinions and quality appraisals of online training; analysis of statistic data. The activity of such Center would promote implementation of the Russian Schools Abroad concept, providing opportunity of annual systematic diagnostics of state of educational and methodological resources of foreign schools, supplying Russianists with modern methodological tools, allowing foreign schools to systematically raise the level of professional competences of teaching staff.

Reprint of : Fishers who rely on mangroves: Modelling and mapping the global intensity of mangrove-associated fisheries

Mangroves are critical nursery habitats for fish and invertebrates, providing livelihoods for many coastal communities. Despite their importance, there is currently no estimate of the number of fishers engaged in mangrove associated fisheries, nor of the fishing intensity associated with mangroves at a global scale. We address these gaps by developing a global model of mangrove associated fisher numbers and mangrove fishing intensity. To develop the model, we undertook a three-round Delphi process with mangrove fisheries experts to identify the key drivers of mangrove fishing intensity. We then developed a conceptual model of intensity of mangrove fishing using those factors identified both as being important and for which appropriate global data could be found or developed. These factors were non-urban population, distance to market, distance to mangroves and other fishing grounds, and storm events. By projecting this conceptual model using geospatial datasets, we were able to estimate the number and distribution of mangrove associated fishers and the intensity of fishing in mangroves. We estimate there are 4.1 million mangrove associated fishers globally, with the highest number of mangrove fishers found in Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Brazil. Mangrove fishing intensity was greatest throughout Asia, and to a lesser extent West and Central Africa, and Central and South America.

Comparative Analysis of Active Contour Models on Skin Cancer Images

Image segmentation is a focal endeavor in image examination accountable for partitioning an image into various sub-territories subject to a pined for the segment. A working structure is an essentialness constraining spline that recognizes demonstrated incorporates inside an image where it propels the shapes reliant on the check of imperativeness and fit it to the furthest reaches of inquiry within the image (thus, it can be used to customized objects division). Dynamic structures have been commonly used as engaging image division procedures since then for the most part, make sub-regions with constant points of confinement, while the piece based edge distinguishing proof methods, for example, Sobel edge discoverers, normally make convulsive breaking points. The utilization of level set hypothesis has given greater adaptability and comfort in the execution of dynamic shapes. Be that as it may, customary edge-based dynamic form models have been pertinent to just moderately straightforward images whose sub-districts are uniform without inward edges. Three ACMs namely Chan Vese (CV), Localized Active Contour (LAC) and Distance regularized level set (DRLS), Local binary fitting(LBF) and Local and global intensity fitting (LGIF) models analyzed and compared performance on skin cancer images. DSC values computed, compared and analyzed based on False Positive, True Positive and False Negative values.

The Reorganization of Global Value Chains in East Asia before and after COVID-19

This paper provides empirical evidence on the reorganization of GVCs in East Asia, highlighting that structural trends explain a decrease in the fragmentation of production after 2011 but that it is not the result of rising trade costs along the value chain. Using harmonized inter-country input-output tables, the paper first analyzes the global import intensity of production to document changes in the structure of GVCs. It then calculates theory-consistent bilateral trade costs for intermediate and final products using an approach derived from the gravity literature and introduces a new index of cumulative trade costs along the value chain. These data are used to discuss whether the decrease in global imports is the consequence of shifts in demand, efficiency-enhancing strategies of firms or rising trade costs. Between 2011 and 2016, cumulative trade costs have decreased in East Asian GVCs. However, as COVID-19 is likely to intensify trade and investment uncertainties, trade costs could increase in the future. Policies aimed at reducing uncertainties and preserving the gains from trade and investment liberalization will be key in this new environment.

Robust cell segmentation based on gradient detection, Gabor filtering and morphological erosion

Research on cell segmentation is experiencing growing pains that need to be addressed for developing generic and robust techniques. The diversity of cells is growing rapidly and the demand for segmenting different types of cell images continue to increase in recent years. It is still very challenging for existing methods to segment various types of cells automatically and robustly. In this paper, we try to address this challenge by proposing an approach that is capable of segmenting various types of cells robustly. To avoid the effect of the global intensity variations, the gradients of cells are computed and then smoothed by the Gabor filter to generate the gradient image with increased intensity uniformity. To find the optimal method for cell foreground segmentation, we evaluated and compared state of the art threshold selection methods extensively. The slope difference distribution (SDD) method was testified as the optimal threshold selection method for cell segmentation and its optimal parameters were obtained in this paper based on a variety of cell images. We tested several morphological erosion methods and combined the iterative erosion method and the area-constrained ultimate erosion method to separate the connected cells robustly. Thirteen types of cells were used to compare the proposed approach with state of the art approaches. The quantitative comparison showed that the proposed approach achieved the highest average F-measure accuracy, 95.61 %. Thus, the proposed approach has the potential to be useful for various microscopic applications.

Local structure analysis of amorphous materials by angstrom-beam electron diffraction.

The structure analysis of amorphous materials still leaves much room for improvement. Owing to the lack of translational or rotational symmetry of amorphous materials, it is important to develop a different approach from that used for crystals for the structure analysis of amorphous materials. Here, the angstrom-beam electron diffraction method was used to obtain the local structure information of amorphous materials at a sub-nanometre scale. In addition, we discussed the relationship between the global and local diffraction intensities of amorphous structures, and verified the effectiveness of the proposed method through basic diffraction simulations. Finally, some applications of the proposed method to structural and functional amorphous materials are summarized.

Associations Among Nitric Oxide and Enkephalinases With Fibromyalgia Symptoms.

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a complex syndrome of uncertain etiology, characterized by the presence of widespread pain. Both nitric oxide and enkephalinases modulate pain perception. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationships among serum nitric oxide levels, oxytocinase activity, and enkephalin-degrading aminopeptidase (EDA) activity with pain-related clinical manifestations in women with FM. We performed an observational case study in a population of 58 women diagnosed with FM. Serum nitric oxide levels were analyzed by an ozone chemiluminescence-based assay. Both serum oxytocinase and EDA activities were fluorometrically determined. Pain threshold and pain magnitude were evaluated using the PainMatcher. The pressure pain thresholds were measured using a digital pressure algometer. We used a visual analog scale, the Central Sensitization Inventory, the Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire, and the Beck Anxiety Inventory to assess the global level of pain, the symptoms associated with the central sensitization syndrome, the severity of FM, and the anxiety level, respectively. Multiple linear regression analysis adjusted by age, body mass index, and menopause status revealed significant associations between nitric oxide levels and dominant occiput pressure pain thresholds, nondominant occiput pressure pain thresholds, and FM effects. Significant associations of oxytocinase activity with the visual analog scale and dominant knee pressure pain thresholds were also found. Moreover, results showed a significant association between high EDA activity levels and dominant second-rib pressure pain thresholds. Our data have shown significant relationships of serum nitric oxide levels and oxytocinase and EDA activities with some body pressure pain thresholds, the daily activity level, and the global intensity of pain in women with FM. These results suggest that pain, which is the main symptom of this syndrome, may be related to alterations in nitric oxide levels and in oxytocinase and EDA activities in patients with FM.

Inference of Hydraulically Fractured Reservoir Properties from Production Data Using the Indicator-Based Probability Perturbation Assisted History-Matching Method

Hydraulically fractured horizontal wells are widely adopted for the development of tight or shale gas reservoirs. The presence of highly heterogeneous, multi-scale, fracture systems often renders any detailed characterization of the fracture properties challenging. Discrete fracture network (DFN) model offers a viable alternative for explicit representation of multiple fractures in the domain, where the comprising fracture properties are defined in accordance to specific probability distributions. However, even with the successful modelling of a DFN, the relationship between a set of fracture parameters and the corresponding production performance is highly nonlinear, implying that a robust history-matching workflow capable of updating the pertinent DFN model parameters is required for calibrating stochastic reservoir models to both geologic and dynamic production data.This paper proposes an integrated approach for the history matching of hydraulically fractured reservoirs. First, multiple realizations of the DFN model are constructed conditioning to available geological information such as seismic data and well logs, which are useful for inferring the prior probability distributions of relevant fracture parameters. Next, the models are upscaled into equivalent continuum dual-permeability models and subjected to numerical multiphase flow simulation. The predicted production performance is compared with the actual recorded responses. Finally, the DFN-model parameters are adjusted following an indicator-based probability perturbation method. Although the probability perturbation technique has been applied to update facies distributions in the past, its application in modeling DFN distributions is limited. To account for the non-Gaussian nature of the DFN parameters, an indicator formulation is proposed. The algorithm aims at minimizing the objective function, while reducing the uncertainties in the unknown fracture parameters.The method is applied to estimate the posterior probability distributions of the transmissivity of the primary fracture (Tpf), transmissivity of the secondary induced fracture (Tsf) and global fracture intensity (Psf32G) in a multifractured shale gas well in the Horn River Basin. An initial realization of the DFN model is sampled from the prior probability distributions using the Monte Carlo simulation. These probability distributions are updated to match the production history, and multiple equi-probable realizations of the DFN models are sampled from the updated (posterior) distributions accordingly. The final sampled realizations of the DFN model are consistent with both static geological information and dynamic production history.

Eco-Friendly Yield and Greenhouse Gas Emissions as Affected by Fertilization Type in a Tropical Smallholder Rice System, Ghana

Data on greenhouse gas emission levels associated with fertilization applied in smallholder paddy rice farms in Ghana are scanty. The current study investigated fertilization types to determine their eco-friendliness on yield, Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Greenhouse Gas Intensity (GHGI) in a major rice season in the forest zone of Ghana. In total, five treatments were studied viz Farmer Practice (BAU); Biochar + Farmer Practice (BAU + BIO); Poultry Manure + Farmer Practice (BAU + M); Biochar + Poultry Manure + Farmer Practice (BAU + BIO + M); and Control (CT). Fluxes of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) were measured using a static chamber-gas chromatography method. N2O emissions at the end of the growing season were significantly different across treatments. BAU + BIO + M had highest N2O flux mean of 0.38 kgNha−1day−1 (±0.18). BAU + M had the second highest N2O flux of 0.27 kgNha−1day−1 (±0.08), but was not significantly different from BAU at p > 0.05. BAU+BIO recorded 0.20 kgNha−1day−1 (±0.12), lower and significantly different from BAU, BAU + M and BAU + BIO + M. CH4 emissions across treatments were not significantly different. However, highest CH4 flux was recorded in BAU+BIO at 4.76 kgCH4ha−1day−1 (±4.87). GWP based on seasonal cumulative GHG emissions among treatments ranged from 5099.16 (±6878.43) to 20894.58 (±19645.04) for CH4 and 756.28 (±763.44) to 27201.54 (±9223.51) kgCO2eqha−1Season−1 for N2O. The treatment with significantly higher yield and low emissions was BAU + M with a GHGI of 4.38 (±1.90) kgCO2eqkg−1.

The changing role of global value chains in CO2 emission intensity in 2000–2014

The growing and transiting global value chains (GVCs) have largely reshaped the economic landscape as well as CO2 emissions of countries. Decoupling GVCs from emissions is essential to achieving the global climate goal. A fundamental question is to understand the changing role of GVCs in global CO2 emissions. To this end, we propose a multi-region structural decomposition analysis model to quantify the impacts of GVCs on global and national emission intensities. The structural changes in GVCs are further characterized by three aspects, i.e. the GVC production linkages, regional and sectoral structures of GVC sourcing. Applying the proposed methodology to the global multi-region input-output tables for 2000–2014 shows that GVCs were much more emission intensive than domestic production during this period. Nevertheless, GVCs were the sole force improving global emission intensity, stemming mainly from contributions by emerging economies as well as service and manufacturing sectors. The sectoral structure of GVC sourcing was a main contributor to the improvement, while the regional structure of GVC sourcing and GVC production linkages hindered the procedure. Finally, GVC impacts on emission intensities varied before and after the 2008 economic crisis.

Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

Abstract. Anthropogenic aerosols are dominant drivers of historical monsoon rainfall change. However, large uncertainties in the radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosol emissions, as well as the dynamical response to this forcing, lead to uncertainty in the simulated monsoon response. We use historical simulations from the “SMURPHS” project, run using HadGEM3-GC3.1, in which the time-varying aerosol emissions are scaled by factors from 0.2 to 1.5 to explore the monsoon sensitivity to historical aerosol forcing uncertainty (present-day versus preindustrial aerosol forcing in the range −0.38 to −1.50 W m−2). The hemispheric asymmetry in emissions generates a strong relationship between scaling factor and both hemispheric temperature contrast and meridional location of tropical rainfall. Averaged over the period 1950–2014, increasing the scaling factor from 0.2 to 1.5 reduces the hemispheric temperature contrast by 0.9 ∘C, reduces the tropical summertime land–sea temperature contrast by 0.3 ∘C and shifts tropical rainfall southwards by 0.28∘ of latitude. The result is a reduction in global monsoon area by 3 % and a reduction in global monsoon intensity by 2 %. Despite the complexity of the monsoon system, the monsoon properties presented above vary monotonically and roughly linearly across scalings. A switch in the dominant influence on the 1950–1980 monsoon rainfall trend between greenhouse gases and aerosol is identified as the scalings increase. Regionally, aerosol scaling has a pronounced effect on Northern Hemisphere monsoon rainfall, with the strongest influence on monsoon area and intensity located in the Asian sector, where local emissions are greatest.

Historical Earthquake Scenarios for the Middle Strand of the North Anatolian Fault Deduced from Archeo-Damage Inventory and Building Deformation Modeling

Abstract The city of İznik (ancient Nicaea), located on the middle strand of the North Anatolian fault zone (MNAF), presents outstanding archeological monuments preserved from the Roman and Ottoman periods (first to fifteenth centuries A.D.), bearing deformations that can be linked to past seismic shaking. To constrain the date and intensity of these historical earthquakes, a systematic survey of earthquake archeological effects (EAEs) is carried out on the city’s damaged buildings. Each of the 235 EAEs found is given a quality ranking, and the corresponding damage is classified according to the European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98). We show that the walls oriented north–south were preferentially damaged, and that most deformations are perpendicular to the walls’ axes. The date of postseismic repairs is constrained with available archeological data and new C14 dating of mortar charcoals. Three damage episodes are evidenced: (1) between the sixth and late eighth centuries, (2) between the nineth and late eleventh centuries A.D., and (3) after the late fourteenth century A.D. The repartition of damage as a function of building vulnerability points toward a global intensity VIII on the EMS-98. The 3D modeling of a deformed Roman obelisk shows that only earthquakes rupturing the MNAF can account for this deformation. Their magnitude can be bracketed between Mw 6 and 7. Our archeoseismological study complements the historical seismicity catalog and confirms paleoseismological data, suggesting several destructive earthquakes along the MNAF, since the first century A.D. We suggest the fault might still have accumulated enough stress to generate an Mw 7+ rupture.

Using GNSS radio occultation data to derive critical frequencies of the ionospheric sporadic E layer in real time

The small-scale electron density irregularities in the ionosphere have a significant impact on the interruptions of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) navigation and the accuracy of GNSS positioning techniques. The sporadic ionospheric E (Es) layer significantly contributes to the transient interruptions of signals (loss of lock) for GNSS tracking loops. These effects on the GNSS radio occultation (RO) signals can be used to derive the global location and intensity of Es layers as a complement to ground-based observations. Here we conduct statistical analyses of the intensity of Es layers, based on the scintillation index S4max from the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC during the period 2006–2014. In comparison with simultaneous observations from an ionosonde network of five low-to-middle latitude ionosondes, the S4max indices from COSMIC, especially the small values, are linearly related to the critical frequency of Es layers (foEs). An accumulated period of less than 1 h is required to derive the short-term variations in real-time ionospheric Es layers. A total of 30.22%, 69.57% and 98.13% coincident hourly foEs values have a relative difference less than 10%, 30% and 100%. Overall, the GNSS RO measurements have the potential to provide accurate hourly observations of Es layers. Observations with S4max < 0.4 (foEs < 3.6 MHz), accounting for 66% of COSMIC S4 measurements, have not been used fully previously, as they are not easily visible in ground-based ionosonde data.

Simulations of Atmospheric Rivers, Their Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using GFDL’s New High-Resolution General Circulation Model

AbstractA 50-km-resolution GFDL AM4 well captures many aspects of observed atmospheric river (AR) characteristics including the probability density functions of AR length, width, length–width ratio, geographical location, and the magnitude and direction of AR mean vertically integrated vapor transport (IVT), with the model typically producing stronger and narrower ARs than the ERA-Interim results. Despite significant regional biases, the model well reproduces the observed spatial distribution of AR frequency and AR variability in response to large-scale circulation patterns such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern and Southern Hemisphere annular modes (NAM and SAM), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. For global warming scenarios, in contrast to most previous studies that show a large increase in AR length and width and therefore the occurrence frequency of AR conditions at a given location, this study shows only a modest increase in these quantities. However, the model produces a large increase in strong ARs with the frequency of category 3–5 ARs rising by roughly 100%–300% K−1. The global mean AR intensity as well as AR intensity percentiles at most percent ranks increases by 5%–8% K−1, roughly consistent with the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of water vapor. Finally, the results point out the importance of AR IVT thresholds in quantifying modeled AR response to global warming.

Physical activity in established rheumatoid arthritis and variables associated with maintenance of physical activity over a seven-year period \u2013 a longitudinal observational study

BackgroundA large number of patients with RA do not adhere to the recommended levels of physical activity to enhance health. According to EULAR recommendations, physical activity should be part of standard care in people with rheumatic diseases. There have been few larger studies on maintenance of physical activity over longer periods of time. The aim was to study self-reported physical activity levels over 7 years in patients with established rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In addition, to determine variables associated with maintenance or change of physical activity behavior.MethodsQuestionnaires were sent to the BARFOT cohort in 2010 (n = 1525) and in 2017 (n = 1046), and 950 patients responded to both questionnaires. Patients were dichotomized according to meeting MVPA recommendations (physically active at a moderate level ≥ 150 min/week or at an intense level ≥ 75 min/week) or not. Body mass index, smoking habits, tender joint count (TJC), swollen joint count (SJC), Patient Global Assessment (PatGA), pain intensity and distribution, fatigue, physical function (HAQ), health-related quality of life (EQ. 5D), comorbidities, and medical treatment were assessed. We used logistic regression analysis to study variables associated with maintenance and/or change of MVPA behavior.ResultsForty-one per cent (n = 389) of the patients met MVPA recommendations on both occasions. Patients who met MVPA recommendations over 7 years were younger and a higher proportion were never-smokers. There was a negative association with being overweight or obese, having cardiovascular or pulmonary diseases, pain, fatigue, and physical function, whereas there was a positive association between QoL and maintaining MVPA recommendations. Similar factors were positively associated with a deterioration in physical activity level over time.ConclusionsMaintenance of physical activity over a long period of time is challenging for patients with established RA. Reports of high quality of life supported maintenance of physical activity while disease related and unhealthy lifestyle factors had a negative effect. Health professionals should consider the patient’s standpoint when encouraging maintenance of physical activity, preferably using coordinated lifestyle interventions.

Analysis of the development of global energy production and consumption by fuel type in various regions of the world

This article is devoted to the analysis of the geographical structure of the world energy industry. The article analyzes trends in global energy production and consumption from 1990 to 2018. Statistical indicators of energy production and consumption are also considered. The study notes that the leading countries in GNP production are the largest energy consumers in the world. The authors consider the issues of distribution of production and consumption of energy resources across the world, changes in the relationship between the leaders in primary energy production and energy consumption. Electricity consumption and production by regions of the world are considered, and the share of global energy intensity of energy by fuel type is determined. In addition, the article analyzes the world consumption of natural gas and coal, as well as its extraction. Changes in world demand for petroleum products and their consumption are considered.

Global CO2 impacts of light-duty electric vehicles

Electric vehicles (EV) offer a solution for decarbonization of transport. We evaluate global scenarios of EV deployment and their impacts on total global CO2 emissions. For this assessment, we enhance the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to represent the fleet dynamics of light-duty vehicles (LDV), including internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and EVs. For EV fleet, both plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) and battery electric vehicles (BEV) are considered. We consider several illustrative scenarios and find that global LDV stock is projected to grow from 1.1 billion vehicles in 2015 to 1.65–1.75 billion in 2050, while global EV stock is growing from about a million in 2015 to about 585–825 million in 2050. At this level of market penetration, EVs would constitute one-third to one-half of the overall LDV fleet by 2050 in different scenarios, with the stricter carbon constraints implied in the Paris to 2 °C scenario leading to the largest EV share. Our modeling suggests that EV uptake will vary across regions. China, the U.S., and Europe remain the largest markets in our study timeframe, but the EV presence is projected to grow in all regions. While the global LDV fleet grows by about 50% by 2050, the corresponding CO2 emissions from LDV are reduced by about 50% in 2050 relative to 2015. Global carbon intensity of LDVs are reduced by about 70% from 2015 to 2050.