Global Inflation Research Articles

Managing Key Accounts—Prizmax Pakistan Limited

The case highlights the efforts of a key account manager in renewing a crucial annual contract with one of their largest customers. This contract holds significant financial and operational implications for both business partners, setting the foundation for the following year’s agreement. As Mahnoor Piracha reviews Prizmax’s performance at Sunshine, she notices that year-to-date sales growth is only 7%, far below the 25% commitment made compared to last year. This shortfall in sales gives Sunshine increased leverage during contract negotiations, allowing them to demand higher margins to offset the lower growth. To complicate matters further, rising global inflation has led Prizmax to prioritize profitability as a key strategic objective. This focus on profitability has been passed down to Prizmax Pakistan and, consequently, to Mahnoor’s targets, making it even more difficult to get margin approvals for any of her accounts. Mahnoor now faces the challenge of meeting the expectations of both Prizmax and Sunshine while convincing both parties to renew the contract before the new year begins. With both entities having traded merchandise worth PKR 2.25 billion, failing to renew the contract could result in losses similar to those experienced during the Nike vs. Footlocker dispute in the early 2000s, where both companies suffered significant financial setbacks. Key account management is a developing discipline in Pakistan’s FMCG sector. While this case focuses specifically on FMCG key accounts, the principles and challenges discussed here are applicable to managing key accounts across various industries.

Time-varying sources of fluctuations in global inflation

Time-varying sources of fluctuations in global inflation

CRYPTOCURRENCY AS A HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION

This paper investigates the potential of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, as viable hedges against inflation, in comparison to traditional assets like gold. In light of increasing global inflation, fueled by economic crises and expansive monetary policies, investors are seeking dependable strategies to safeguard their purchasing power. Cryptocurrencies have attracted interest due to their finite supply and decentralized characteristics, which could theoretically position them as suitable inflation hedges. Nonetheless, their significant volatility and speculative traits raise concerns about their reliability in fulfilling this role. This research consolidates insights from three prominent studies on the relationship between cryptocurrency and inflation, analyzing their methodologies and outcomes to evaluate the effectiveness of cryptocurrencies as inflation hedges. In summary, although cryptocurrencies may occasionally respond positively to inflation surges, their volatility and speculative nature hinder their ability to serve as consistent inflation hedges. The findings indicate that cryptocurrencies are currently more suited as high-risk speculative investments rather than reliable stores of value against inflation. Keywords :- Cryptocurrencies , Inflation hedge , Bitcoin , Volatility , Speculative investment , Purchasing power , Gold , Decentralization , Asset reliability, Economic crises

Technological trends in the digital development of the industrial sector in Germany

The article examines the directions of digitalization in the German industrial sector. The article is aimed at determining the level of digitalization of the country’s industries and regions. The primary methods used include abstract-logical analysis, employed in the study of industries and the economic structure; comparative analysis in the examination of technologies and regions where digitalization is taking place. System analysis is applied to the study of technologies and of the impact of digitalization on the overall development of the German economy. Industries that have actively implemented digitalization measures are examined, and those lagging behind in digitalization are identified. The article presents key practices and measures for digitalization that contribute to improving the economic situation in Germany. Regions are also considered based on the degree of digitalization. An analysis of GDP dynamics and the impact of digitalization on economic growth in the country is conducted. As a result, the main trends in digitalization that have led to structural changes in the German economy are shown. It is determined that the country’s economy is stable and weakly growing against the backdrop of instability in global market and rising global inflation.

The Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian War on the Global Economy

The most unexpected thing happened just as the globe was beginning to recover from the COVID - 19 pandemic and there was hope for the economy to be rebuilt. The Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, was seen by the entire globe. The day of the invasion saw a decline in stock values. Not just the economy of Russia and Ukraine suffered during the initial months of the invasion, many other nations also suffered greatly because of the conflict. Food prices increased dramatically worldwide because of the conflict between these two nations. The cost of food increased as well as there was an increase in the price of crude oil. Thus, resulting in Global inflation. Numerous European nations placed harsh sanctions on Russia to lessen the impact of the conflict. However, this did not create much of an impact since These sanctions had a serious impact on both the European nations and the nations that were not involved in the conflict. This resulted in a serious inflation issue that affected both combatant and noncombatant nations worldwide. This paper focuses on the global economic effect of the Russia and Ukraine war and how the actions of one country can create a serious impact on the globe.

Pravni položaj berzi plemenitih metala u uporednom zakonodavstvu

In the years of economic and geopolitical crises and global inflation, there is a noticeable trend of increasing demand for precious metals, which play an increasingly prominent role as an instrument for diversifying the investment portfolio and as a security means. Therefore, the starting point of this research is the analysis of the legal regime for the organization and operation of precious metal exchanges in comparative legislation. Using a comparative and normative method, the author will critically review the principal legal characteristics of precious metal exchanges, the legal position and organization of the world’s most important precious metal exchanges, their business rules and the activities of the regulatory authority that supervises the precious metals trading. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to consider the importance of organizing and operating precious metals exchanges, taking into account that unconscionable, dishonest and non-transparent operations on the precious metals market can cause negative consequences for both market participants and the economy and society as a whole in the case of significant market disruptions.

On the Borrowed Points and Danger Prevention of Cross-Border Tax Planning

International tax planning can reflect the level of an enterprise's multinational business management, but also relates to the financial cost of growth and decline, is a must for enterprise managers. International tax planning refers to the multinational taxpayers to make in advance, used to reduce the international tax obligations of multinational investment and business plans. With the global inflation, the use of reasonable means to reduce the tax burden in the international tax environment has become a practical need to promote the further development and growth of China's multinational companies, but at present, China's multinational enterprises are still in the initial stage of multinational operations, many managers for the discussion of the international tax planning only stays on the surface. Therefore, this paper analyzes the possibility of international tax planning, tax jurisdiction, policy loopholes, tax avoidance risks and hazard prevention from the perspective of Apple, for example, and analyzes Apple's Irish-Dutch Sandwich tax avoidance structure, which provides certain reference significance to our country's multinational tax planning.

Restrictive monetary policy – an obstacle to foreign direct investment

This article examines some acute problems of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Monetary Policy and Inflation. Following a long declining trend, global FDI flows decreased in 2023 and remaining below the indicator of 2007, that is pre-global financial crisis level. According to international organizations, FDI flows were negatively affected by high interest rates, unfavourable financing conditions and situation on capital markets. The article considers the role of restrictive monetary policy alongside the theoretical aspects of global inflation. The author argues that the drop in international investment, in particular, can be attributed to Restrictive Monetary Policy in many countries. Restrictive Monetary Policy seems to underestimate the inflationary role of imperfect competition, the rise of prices for imported energy and food, the fluctuations of currency rates as well as expectations of the micro-level participants. The article provides certain economic recommendations to Russia’s regulators on Monetary and FDI Policy. In future the Bank of Russia may gradually move from Restrictive Monetary Policy to Expansionary Monetary Policy to provide stimulus for FDI. Also, this article summarizes the process of predicting future condition of the world economy in applying Kondratieff’s approach. The author concludes that it is necessary to continue studying the long wave theory with the aim of its further use in forecasting the events in Russia and worldwide.

Discussion of “Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020”

This discussion comments on the ambitious paper, “Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020,” by Mai Chi Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra. The strengths of the DGLM paper are manifest. There is much to learn from it, both about the commonalities of the inflation experiences of this large group of important countries and their differences, and I draw some lessons and policy implications. I will suggest that one could have learned even more if the authors had devoted some of their effort to comparing the recent global inflation episode to earlier experiences, and if they had related their empirical specification and results to predictions of models with search frictions.

Bitcoin: a Ponzi scheme or an emerging inflation-fighting asset?

Under the dual impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the excessive stimulation of monetary policy continuously pushes up global inflation (INF). Therefore, this article explores whether Bitcoin can serve as a safe haven for INF. We apply the rolling-window Granger causality test to solve the issue of parameter instability in vector autoregression (VAR) systems and investigate the time-varying interaction between INF and Bitcoin price (BP). The negative influence of INF on BP means a high inflation shock causes BP to decline, indicating that Bitcoin cannot be a safe asset against INF. This is because investors have decreased their willingness to hold Bitcoin under the high INF expectations and cause BP to fall. This finding is not supported by the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, emphasising that INF positively impacts BP. Conversely, BP has positive and negative impacts on INF. The positive effect highlights the effectiveness of Bitcoin in predicting INF fluctuations, but economic factors could undermine this effectiveness. In the context of economic stagnation and market turmoil, investors can adjust their portfolio investments based on Bitcoin. The government should utilise the trend of BP to regulate the dynamics of INF to reduce uncertainty in the financial system.

A global perspective on post pandemic inflation and its retreat: Remarks prepared for NBER conference on “inflation in the COVID era”

This paper provides a high level review of the common sources of the post pandemic surge in global inflation and some observations about how this surge - and the conduct of monetary policy during this period - may inform us about monetary policy frameworks and execution.

Applications of three distinct regression models in GDP predication

This paper introduces the basic theory and formula of linear regression, multiple linear regression, and nonlinear regression. Linear regression is one of the commonly used analysis methods in statistical analysis, which can predict the trend of model data change to a certain extent. Multiple linear regression involves more variables to predict and analyze the change trend of data, and can predict the change of data more accurately. Nonlinear regression can predict the model of arbitrary relationship between variables, thus obtaining more accurate prediction data. In the selection of regression analysis method, data characteristics and problem background should be considered, and model assumptions and validation should be paid attention to ensure accuracy and reliability. In the applications, the paper discusses the application of simple linear regression to Okuns law and delves into the complex relationship between multiple variables and gross domestic product (GDP). Finally, it uses nonlinear regression equations to analyze the global inflation rate and the annual data, and proves that there is a nonlinear relationship between the two and a downward trend, which is supported by analyzing the data of Australia and Canada.

Global inflation: modern determinism and challenges for policy

The article studies global inflation determinants, causing it in recent decades and at the present stage under the influence of cascading shocks in world economy and financial system. The relevance of the problems summarized and analyzed in the article is explained by the significant risks of the inflation duration at the present stage, which is affected by an increasing number of shocks from demand, supply, and global financial system. In these conditions, even adaptive monetary policy may cease to be effective. The purpose of the study is to assess the nature and extent of developed and developing countries’ economies vulnerability due to inflationary shocks and to identify the inflation fundamental determinants in crisis conditions on the basis of retrospective analysis. Achievement of the goal implied the solution of such priority tasks as: global inflation dynamics factors identification considering the risks of stagflationary and recessionary trends in world economy; inflation new determinants identification in the context of changes in the scale and structure of the global financial market; assessment of monetary policy adjustment and adaptation mechanisms in the current inflationary environment; consideration of the current nature of supply and demand shocks and their impact on global inflation. The current inflationary shock is unprecedented, and the study assesses it in its historical context and for its similarities and differences with significant inflation episodes observed in the post-war decades. The key factors of inflation at the present stage have been analyzed in their relationship with the monetary policy key trends.

Concealed carry

The slope carry takes a long (short) position in the long-term bonds of countries with steeper (flatter) yield curves. The traditional carry takes a long (short) position in countries with high (low) short-term rates. We document that: (i) the slope carry return is slightly negative (strongly positive) in the pre (post) 2008 period, whereas it is concealed over longer samples; (ii) the traditional carry return is lower post-2008; and (iii) expected global growth and inflation declined post-2008. We connect these findings through an equilibrium model in which countries feature heterogeneous exposure to news shocks about global output and global inflation.

Inflation – Causes and Measures. Inflation in Romania

Abstract The causes of global inflation developments are the central subject of political debates, after in 2022 it became a global phenomenon, remaining above the average of the pre-pandemic period. According to the World Bank, there is a wide range of shocks to global supply and demand, oil prices and global interest rates that together drive global inflation. According to the International Monetary Fund, the global recovery is becoming increasingly sluggish and with growing regional divergences, with a future downward trend in global growth below the historical average of the period 2000-2019. Moreover, it is estimated that inflation will subside in the next period, but without reaching the estimated target for 2025. However, Romania has the highest inflation rate in the EU, increasing double the average of the EU countries. There are views that monetary policy, more rigor in fiscal consolidation and lower international commodity prices can control inflation and rein in debt growth. But what measures have been adopted in this regard and why does Romania have a different evolutionary trajectory?

New Global Supply Chain Pressures Index. An Analysis of the Inflationary Changes Brought About by Global Supply Chains

Abstract This paper aims to demonstrate the causal relationship between the new Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) and the inflationary movements occurring at the global level. The primary focus of this research is to identify patterns and correlations that emerge between these two economic indicators, thereby attempting to mitigate the effects of inflation by analysing indices directly related to global merchandise traffic. Therefore, the terms and concepts used are clarified in the first section within a broader framework, to underscore their relevance within the scope of the paper, as well as to facilitate their further exploration for a more profound comprehension of subsequent scientific and specialized references. The second section provides a brief overview of scientific works on this topic, which have served as the scientific foundation and have prompted us to undertake our study to contribute to the body of scientific knowledge on this relatively underexplored subject, given that the GSCPI is a concept that emerged only in May of the year 2022. Furthermore, in the second section, we conducted a bibliometric analysis to discern trends concerning global supply chains and global inflation, as well as the correlation between them. The result is to provide a deeper understanding of the novel concepts and the prospective utilization of GSCPI.

Geopolitical risk, supply chains, and global inflation

AbstractThis paper investigates the effects of global geopolitical risks and global supply chain pressures on global inflation for the monthly period of 1999M1–2022M12. The investigation is based on a structural vector autoregression model, where the effects of global oil prices and global monetary policy are controlled for. Four alternative measures of inflation are used, including headline, core, food, and energy inflation. The empirical results show that disruptions in global supply chains are the main drivers of global inflation in the long run as the corresponding shocks explain the lion's share of volatilities in headline inflation (by 32%), core inflation (by 30%), and food inflation (by 22%), followed by oil price shocks and policy rate shocks. In comparison, energy inflation is explained the most by oil price shocks (by 55%) followed by supply chain shocks and policy rate shocks. Positive supply chain pressure and oil price shocks have positive and statistically significant effects on headline inflation even after five years, whereas positive policy rate shocks have negative and statistically significant effects on headline inflation in the long run. In contrast, positive shocks to geopolitical risk result in higher headline inflation only up to one year, with insignificant effects in the long run. Several policy implications follow.

Development a policy for the production of Bitcoins with renewable energy sources

Bitcoin, the first decentralized digital currency introduced by an anonymous person or group since 2008, has attracted worldwide attention. A significant number of economists have introduced Bitcoin as a new phenomenon in the 21st century that could reduce global inflation. Given the tens of thousands of digital currencies that have emerged since the advent of Bitcoin and its price growth trend over more than a decade, which are signs of the growth of this business. In addition to being money, Bitcoin has always been considered a tool for investing and storing value, which is why it is called digital gold. One of the most important problems in the production or extraction of Bitcoins is the high-power consumption by miners. If the energy sources of electricity generation are supplied by non-renewable energy sources, in addition to emitting air pollutant gases, it will increase greenhouse gases and consequently contribute to climate change. In this research, based on the idea of the authors, which is that the economic support of Bitcoin is energy, a strategy for producing Bitcoin from renewable energy sources is considered. First, the amount of electrical energy consumption by Bitcoin production is calculated based on statistical data, and then based on the price of electricity in different countries of the world and its global average, the base price of Bitcoin is calculated. In the following, four scenarios are proposed for the production of Bitcoin by electricity supplied from non-renewable energy sources. These scenarios include coal-fired steam power plants, natural gas-fired power plants, natural gas/oil gas-fired power plants, and dual-cycle (steam and gas cycles) natural gas-fired power plants. Based on the amount of electricity required to produce one Bitcoin, the amount of pollutants emitted to produce Bitcoin and its social costs are calculated. These costs should be added to the base cost of Bitcoin production if non-renewable energy sources are used to produce Bitcoin. Then, renewable energy sources for Bitcoin production based on the price of electricity generated by renewable energy sources are examined. Based on the analyses, how to choose the best renewable energy source to produce Bitcoin is presented as a scenario. This article briefly answers two key questions: 1. At what price of Bitcoin is it cost-effective for governments to produce it? 2. What is the best renewable energy source to produce it? These two questions can be useful in creating a roadmap and strategy for economists and governments.

Navigating retail inflation in Brazil: A machine learning and web scraping approach to the basic food basket

In response to the escalating challenges of global inflation, particularly in developing countries like Brazil, this study combines web scraping and machine learning to analyze inflation dynamics within the retail sector. By systematically real-time pricing and product data from a sponsor company and its four main competitors, we focus on Brazil's most consumed staple foods—beans, rice, sugar, and coffee. Our analysis reveals critical insights into how inflation impacts consumer choices and supply chain operations, highlighting the effectiveness of this approach in providing strategic solutions for managing retail sectors under economic stress. The findings highlight the effectiveness of this approach in providing strategic solutions for managing retail sectors under economic stress. Notably, we observed a 400% increase in sales volume for beans following a 50% price reduction and discovered coffee's price stability as a competitive advantage. Additionally, managerial insights emphasize the importance of diversified sourcing and strategic inventory management to mitigate the adverse effects of inflation.

Analisis Kecerdasaran Spiritual, Stress Kerja dan Kesehatan Mental

This research aims to examine the relationship between spiritual intelligence and work stress and mental health in the work environment, amidst challenges such as the ongoing pandemic and the threat of global inflation. This study uses questionnaire methods and PLS-SEM analysis to test hypotheses, considering the speculative nature of this research which focuses on estimating key factors that determine mental health. Analysis was carried out with SmartPLS 3.0 software. The research results show that companies need to pay attention to the health of their employees, including mental health, because work stress has been proven to be a significant factor in influencing mental health. However, research finds that spiritual intelligence does not have a significant influence on mental health or work stress. In conclusion, companies must focus more on efforts to reduce work stress to improve employee mental health, because this factor has a significant impact. Meanwhile, spiritual intelligence has not been proven to be influential in this context, so companies can direct their efforts mainly on other aspects that are more relevant to employee mental health. Keywords: Spiritual Intelligence, Mental Health, Work Stress