Global GHG Emissions Research Articles

Balancing Economic Growth and Emission Reductions: Policy Trade-offs in India’s Power Sector Towards Achieving the 2070 Net-Zero Goal

India faces significant policy trade-offs between raising living standards for 1.4 billion people and reducing global GHG emissions. While the government has introduced policies to promote renewable energy and reduce coal dependency, numerous efforts are required to meet the 2070 net-zero target. Cutting emissions will likely slow short-term growth and affect coal-dependent communities. However, the right policies can minimize these costs. This paper reviews India’s current climate policies and models emission trajectories under various policy scenarios to explore ways to reduce GHG emissions effectively.

Hybridization of Concentrated Solar Thermal, Geothermal, and Biomass: Case Study on Kizildere-2 Geothermal Power Plant

The usage of fossil fuel in the energy sector is the primary factor for global GHG emissions, so it is crucial to better utilize RE sources. One way to do that is to hybridize RE technologies to make up for their deficiencies while enabling a more synergistic power production. This study utilizes such an approach to hybridize the KZD-2 Geothermal Power Plant (GPP) with CST and biomass in the southwest region of Turkiye. The main motivation is to address the two main issues of GPPs—excess turbine capacities happening over the operating years and decreasing performance during hot summer months—while also increasing the flexibility of KZD-2. A topping cycle of CST–biomass is added utilizing a PTC field as the CST technology and olive residual biomass combustion as the biomass technology. The hybrid plant is simulated on TRNSYS, and the energetic data show that it is possible to generate more than 20 MWe of additional power during sunny and clear sky conditions while also increasing the Capacity Factor (CF) from 69% to 74–76%. Moreover, the financial results show that the resulting LCOAE is 81.19 USD/MWh, and the payback period is five or nine years for using the YEKDEM incentive or the spot market prices, respectively.

Towards Regenerative Material Design and Innovation: Overcoming Multi-Level Barriers

The ecological impacts of industrial products are often locked in at the material design stage, requiring transformative changes to practices, mindsets and systems from the beginning of the innovation journey. This paper critically explores how such transformative shifts are being shaped by the application of regenerative principles to material design and innovation practices in the realm of entrepreneurship. It is based on a qualitative interview study with 12 material innovation companies. The study aims to understand the novel innovation practices they are fostering to catalyse regenerative and/or circular approaches that can address global plastic pollution – a major contributor to global GHG emissions. The analysis identifies seven perceived innovation barriers that complicate the full adoption of regenerative principles, including advocating for new product categories, educating B2B customers about novel materials and inventing appropriate scaling approaches. Overcoming these barriers requires mindset-related and systemic transformations, linking this research to broader innovation management, sustainability transitions and regeneration debates. The article concludes by articulating key insights and managerial implications for innovation leaders who are keen to further regenerative transitions through material innovations within (and beyond) their own organisations.

A probabilistic framework for stranding risk assessment and EPBD IV scenario analysis for the Italian building stock

The building sector is a major contributor to global GHG emissions, constituting an essential player in national and global decarbonization strategies. In this framework, governments have started requiring higher building energy performances to reduce emissions, with the new European Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) representing a further step in this direction. Such requirements could be enforced at a large scale with specific penalties for the property owners, such as the stranding of non-compliant assets, making them not rentable or marketable until requirements are met. A few countries have already applied these measures but with a limited extent and effective implications compared to the decarbonization goals. Thus, while the consequent impact is potentially considerable given that a significant share of existing buildings would be stranded, a high uncertainty characterizes its assessment, calling for a probabilistic approach. However, no probabilistic methods have been formulated for stranding risk. This paper critically reviews the state-of-the-art approaches for stranding assessment of buildings. A probabilistic framework based on methodologies derived from natcat risk assessment is also presented. A scenario-based analysis is carried out on the Italian building stock and compared to the impact of natural hazards. Results reveal that stranding risk can be relatively significant in terms of expected monetary losses. The categorization of this risk as sustainability-induced “creative destruction” is also discussed. The findings provide insights into which policies would be required to implement decarbonization pathways for the building stock while underlining how energy retrofit design can adapt to mitigate stranding risk.

Pioneering solutions for sustainable protein production in future

Pioneering solutions for sustainable protein production in future InnoProtein consortium, explain why sustainable protein production is urgently needed and how, with its circular, zero-waste approach, InnoProtein supports this goal. By 2050, population growth will play a major role in the state of the environmental, social and economic system. (1) Traditional protein products, with their vast amounts of animal derivates, are being presented as sustainably obsolete due to the high consumption of natural resources employed for their production. (2) Current protein production has a high environmental impact, and a general transition towards greener and sustainable consumption is required. Agriculture is responsible for 70-85% of the world’s water footprint and 30% of global GHG emissions. Meat production is the most impactful activity in food production.

Control algorithm for dynamic solar shadings: A simulation study for office buildings based on ISO 52016-3

In 2019, the building sector was accountable for emitting 12GtCO2, equivalent to 21 % of global GHG emissions. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, the building sector must change its pace. One of the ways to achieve this goal is through the installation of dynamic solar shadings in buildings. This study focuses on a single office in two locations characterised by a temperate climate: Liège (Belgium) and Milan (Italy). Two control strategies are designed for Venetian and Roller blinds, one with and one without glare evaluation. They both integrate horizontal illuminance, room occupancy, indoor operative temperature and vertical irradiance according to a multi-criteria approach based on ISO 52016-3. The control strategy aims to balance visual comfort, heating, artificial lighting and cooling energy needs and considers user satisfaction by evaluating the shading activation time. The control algorithms are applied and validated on a DesignBuilder shoebox model. Regardless of location, the control strategy that includes glare control improves the user's visual comfort in terms of light quantity and discomfort glare. However, a total annual energy needs increase is registered independently of the shading. Conversely, if glare is not included in the control strategy, control of thermal loads is observed. This work contributed to developing ISO 52016-3 shading control scenarios for offices and is intended for shading producers, solar shading associations, façade engineers, facility managers and the scientific community working on solar shading simulation and analysis.

Coal-based generators’ corporate response to an emissions trading scheme in Kazakhstan

The power industry remains a central focus of modern climate mitigation policies because of its significant contribution to global GHG emissions and increased global electricity demand. This paper examines Kazakhstan's coal-based power-generation companies' responses to a national emissions trading scheme (ETS) regulation introduced in 2013 by applying corporate climate strategy and sociotechnical systems frameworks. The in-depth case study is based on 20 interviews with managers of the six largest Kazakhstan coal-based generators and ten interviews with independent industry experts. The empirical data indicate that Kazakhstan's ETS has impacted the country's generators. The companies have responded in the form of non-compliance (i.e., application for additional free allowances), compliance (i.e., purchase of allowances from the ETS), and compliance-plus activities (i.e., exploring investment into renewable energy and fuel switching to natural gas). At the same time, Kazakhstan's generators continue the business-as-usual approach by investing in modernizing their coal-generating assets. Therefore, Kazakhstan may consider complementing its ETS regulation with additional policy reforms to support its ambitious objective to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Including SDGs in low-carbon transport scenarios: A case of Udaipur

<p>Transportation is fundamental to shaping urban form and quality of life. The transport sector contributes to a quarter of global GHG emissions. It is integral to countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate global warming or control warming beyond 2 ℃ or 1.5 ℃ above the pre-industrial level. Climate change mitigation in the transport sector demands a tailored approach for cities of the global south—recently urbanizing with increased dependence on motorization—incorporating social aspects of sustainability. The study examines the delivery of climate change mitigation and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) in Udaipur’s passenger transport sector through six SDGs. Over and above the business-as-usual scenario, the two scenarios presented are the technology scenario, which recalibrates Udaipur’s available low-carbon mobility plan, and the SDG scenario, which addresses social transformations by applying assumptions derived from the primary survey in the city. The socially sensitive SDG scenario prioritizes the mobility demands of those with low or no mobility. It also enhances mobility by retaining the share of non-motorized transport (NMT), intermediate public transport (IPT), and public transport (PT) and regulating excessive use of private motorized vehicles. However, the SDG scenario causes a 26% increase in the vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT), a 24% increase in CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, and a 29% decrease in other GHG emissions over the Technology Scenario.</p>

Accounting for Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Agricultural System of China Based on the Life Cycle Assessment Method

Agricultural systems contribute nearly one-third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions and are an important source of GHGs globally. The clarification of the GHG emission pattern from agriculture is of paramount importance in the establishment of an agricultural emission reduction mechanism and the realization of China’s dual-carbon target. Based on the life cycle assessment method (LCA), this paper comprehensively quantifies the greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural system in China, encompassing rice, wheat, and corn cultivation as well as animal husbandry including cows, horses, donkeys, mules, camels, pigs, and sheep. The analysis covers the period 2000–2020 and examines the spatial distribution, temporal trends, and structural changes in the greenhouse gas emissions within China’s agriculture sector. The main results are as follows: (1) from 2000 to 2020, China witnessed a consistent upward trajectory in its total agricultural GHG emissions, exhibiting an average annual growth rate of 0.73%. Notably, methane (CH4) emissions emerged as the largest contributor, displaying an overall fluctuating pattern. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions demonstrated intermittent increases with a noteworthy annual growth rate of 3%, signifying the most rapid expansion within this context. Conversely, nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions experienced decline over the specified period. (2) GHG emissions from cultivation demonstrate an upward trajectory, primarily driven by the CH4 emissions originating from rice cultivation and CO2 resulting from straw incineration. Conversely, GHG emissions stemming from animal husbandry declined, with the primary source being CH4 emissions arising from animal enteric fermentation. Agricultural N2O emissions predominantly arise due to manure management and nitrogen fertilizer application. (3) Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions exhibit significant variations in spatial distribution, gradually concentrating towards the North China Plain, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the northeast. Specifically, agricultural CH4 emissions are progressively concentrated in China’s pivotal rice-growing regions, encompassing the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Plain, as well as livestock breeding areas like Inner Mongolia. Agricultural CO2 emissions primarily concentrate in dryland crop production zones such as North China and Northeast China. Meanwhile, Agricultural N2O emissions predominantly occur in Inner Mongolia and the North China Plain. China’s agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 show a significant spatial clustering effect, with hotspots primarily concentrated in Shandong, Anhui, Henan, and other regions and cold spots focused in the western and southern areas. The emission patterns of agricultural GHGs are closely intertwined with farming practices, regional development levels, and national policy; hence, tailored measures for emission reduction should be formulated based on specific crop types, livestock categories, agricultural production activities, and regional development characteristics.

Relationship between Dairy Cow Health and Intensity of Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

The dairy industry is facing criticism for its role in exacerbating global GHG emissions, as climate change becomes an increasingly pressing issue. These emissions mostly originate from methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2). An optimal strategy involves the creation of an economical monitoring device to evaluate methane emissions from dairy animals. Livestock production systems encounter difficulties because of escalating food demand and environmental concerns. Enhancing animal productivity via nutrition, feeding management, reproduction, or genetics can result in a decrease in CH4 emissions per unit of meat or milk. This CH4 unit approach allows for a more accurate comparison of emissions across different animal production systems, considering variations in productivity. Expressing methane emissions per unit allows for easier comparison between different sources of emissions. Expressing emissions per unit (e.g., per cow) highlights the relative impact of these sources on the environment. By quantifying emissions on a per unit basis, it becomes easier to identify high-emission sources and target mitigation efforts accordingly. Many environmental policies and regulations focus on reducing emissions per unit of activity or output. By focusing on emissions per unit, policymakers and producers can work together to implement practices that lower emissions without sacrificing productivity. Expressing methane emissions in this way aligns with policy goals aimed at curbing overall greenhouse gas emissions. While it is true that total emissions affect the atmosphere globally, breaking down emissions per unit helps to understand the specific contributions of different activities and sectors to overall greenhouse gas emissions. Tackling cattle health issues can increase productivity, reduce GHG emissions, and improve animal welfare. Addressing livestock health issues can also provide favourable impacts on human health by reducing the prevalence of infectious illnesses in livestock, thereby mitigating the likelihood of zoonotic infections transmitting to humans. The progress in animal health offers the potential for a future in which the likelihood of animal diseases is reduced because of improved immunity, more effective preventative techniques, earlier identification, and innovative treatments. The primary objective of veterinary medicine is to eradicate clinical infectious diseases in small groups of animals. However, as the animal population grows, the emphasis shifts towards proactive treatment to tackle subclinical diseases and enhance production. Proactive treatment encompasses the consistent monitoring and implementation of preventive measures, such as vaccination and adherence to appropriate nutrition. Through the implementation of these measures, the livestock industry may enhance both animal well-being and mitigate the release of methane and nitrous oxide, thereby fostering environmental sustainability. In addition, advocating for sustainable farming methods and providing farmers with education on the significance of mitigating GHG emissions can bolster the industry's endeavours to tackle climate change and infectious illnesses. This will result in a more robust and environmentally sustainable agriculture industry. This review seeks to conduct a thorough examination of the correlation between the health condition of cattle, the composition of milk produced, and the emissions of methane gas. It aims to identify areas where research is lacking and to provide guidance for future scientific investigations, policy making, and industry practices. The goal is to address the difficulties associated with methane emissions in the cattle industry. The primary global health challenge is to identify the causative relationship between climate change and infectious illnesses. Reducing CH4 and N2O emissions from digestive fermentation and animal manure can be achieved by improving animal well-being and limiting disease and mortality.

Global biomethane and carbon dioxide removal potential through anaerobic digestion of waste biomass

Anaerobic digestion is a bioenergy technology that can play a vital role in achieving net-zero emissions by converting organic matter into biomethane and biogenic carbon dioxide. By implementing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), carbon dioxide can be separated from biomethane, captured, and permanently stored, thus generating carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to offset hard-to-abate emissions. Here, we quantify the global availability of waste biomass for BECCS and their CDR and biomethane technical potentials. These biomass feedstocks do not create additional impacts on land, water, and biodiversity and can allow a more sustainable development of BECCS while still preserving soil fertility. We find that up to 1.5 Gt CO2 per year, or 3% of global GHG emissions, are available to be deployed for CDR worldwide. The conversion of waste biomass can generate up to 10 700 TWh of bioenergy per year, equivalent to 10% of global final energy consumption and 27% of global natural gas supply. Our assessment quantifies the climate mitigation potential of waste biomass and its capacity to contribute to negative emissions without relying on extensive biomass plantations.

Achievement of SDGS globally in biodiversity conservation and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by using green energy and maintaining forest cover

The global partnership for sustainable development is well-positioned to combat climate change and its impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on climate, oceans, marine resources, forests, biodiversity, and land degradation. This study has assessed and evaluated the status of global forests and biodiversity, greenhouse emissions, and global energy perspectives, synthesizing track progress on goals 13 and 15 targets focusing on climate change trends, forest cover, and biodiversity status. Review and analysis of global forest resource and biodiversity assessment, GHG emission inventories, verification of CO2 measurement, statistical review of world energy and renewables contributions to reduction of GHG emissions, and applying quantitative data on environmental change to identify impact and implications showed that the targeted SDG goals are able to address the issues needed to build climate resilience: maintaining forests and biodiversity, achieving zero emissions, and adopting renewables. Forests, which cover 31% of the world's land surface, provide habitat, clean air and water, and help mitigate climate change. However, 13 million hectares are lost each year, resulting in the desertification of 3.6 billion hectares. The world's tree stock has decreased slightly due to a decrease in forest area, with 8% of 8,300 animal breeds extinct and 22% on the verge of extinction, highlighting the importance of sustainable ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation. Global GHG emissions are expected to rise slightly in 2021 to 8 GtCO2e, comparable to or exceeding 2019 levels, and global temperatures could rise over 1.5°C by 2030. Human activities, including greenhouse gas emissions, contribute to global warming, with surface temperatures rising 1.1°C between 2011 and 2020. Mitigation policies expand, but warming may exceed 1.5°C by 2030. The world faces challenges in achieving climate change goals, necessitating increased ambition and implementation. Integrating climate action and sustainable development using renewable energy sources like bioenergy, solar, geothermal, hydropower, and wind is the most effective approach.

Implementation of electric vehicles to support energy conservation and efficiency improvement in the transportation sector in Indonesia

More than 45.7% of Indonesia’s total energy consumption in 2021 came from the transportation sector. The transportation sector needs to improve energy efficiency and apply energy conservation measures in order to reduce energy consumption. The use of electric cars as an environmentally friendly replacement for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is one effort in this direction. Using electric vehicles will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector; however, if fossil fuels continue to dominate the power sector, this will also lead to an increase in global GHG emissions. The power sector must employ NRE as much as possible in order to cut emissions. The energy system model, which is projected to be operational until the year 2100, was created using the LEAP and NEMO tools. Power plants are optimized for electricity delivery using the BAU and NZE scenarios. As a result of the energy system’s optimization, the usage of petroleum products will be reduced by about 778.7 million BOE in 2100, and the transportation sector’s GHG emissions will be reduced by 304.4 million tons of CO2e. By promoting energy efficiency, conservation, and the environment’s impact, the use of electric vehicles can improve Indonesia’s NZE situation in the transportation sector.

EU agriculture under an import stop for food and feed

AbstractRecent disruptions in international trade have had significant impacts on consumers and producers worldwide and stemmed from various reasons. This study aims to identify key vulnerabilities in EU agriculture by examining an import stop on food and feed products. By conducting this stylised simulation using a global PE model (CAPRI), the authors analyse the adjustment mechanisms within the sector, investigate regional differences within the EU and test the model's ability to depict such a comprehensive scenario. The findings suggest that oilseeds are most affected by an import stop due to their high import share. Meat is indirectly impacted as it relies on imported soy for animal feed, whereas other products with high self‐sufficiency levels are hardly affected. In response to the import stop, EU production expands, increasing nitrogen surpluses, particularly in regions already facing critical levels. Meat production partially moves out of the EU, increasing global GHG emissions. EU consumers are negatively affected by increased prices, leading to an overall welfare decrease in the EU with exceptions for few member states. Alongside EU imports, exports decrease, affecting prices and welfare outside the EU. In the least developed countries, prices increase especially for products that are already consumed less than recommended.

Mapping and modelling global mobility infrastructure stocks, material flows and their embodied greenhouse gas emissions

Roads and rail-based mobility infrastructures are the basis for mobility services and underpin several Sustainable Development Goals, but also induce material use and greenhouse gas emissions. To date, no stock-flow consistent study has assessed globally accumulated stocks of mobility infrastructures, associated material flows and emissions, and their spatial patterns.We present global findings on material stocks for all roads, rail-based infrastructures, incl. tunnels and bridges, and model associated material flows and their embodied emissions for the year 2021. The stock-flow consistent model combines crowd-sourced Open Street Maps data with archetypical infrastructure designs, material compositions, assumptions on lifetimes and network growth rates, incl. uncertainty ranges. We derive spatially explicit, national-level stock estimates for 180 countries, map them at a resolution of 5 arcminutes, and derive material flows and their embodied emissions at the country-level.We find that 314 [218–403] Gt of materials (41 [28–53] tons/cap) have accumulated in global mobility infrastructure, the majority in roads as aggregates and asphalt. Stocks are unequally distributed between countries, from averages of 23 [16–30] tons/cap in low income countries, to 130 [89–164] tons/cap in high income countries. Spatial inequality of per capita stocks per area differs by orders of magnitude, from 101-104 between rural, suburban, and dense urban areas. We find that 8 [4–16] Gt/year of material flows are due to expansion and maintenance, amounting to 6 [3–10] % of global resource extraction. These translate into 0.36 [0.19–0.69] Gt CO2eq/year, or 1 [0.5–1.9] % of global GHG emissions in 2021.Approximately two-thirds of these flows result from maintenance and replacement of stocks, indicating an important lock-in of resource use due to already existing infrastructure stocks. These findings support the crucial role of improving spatial planning, limiting stock expansion and (sub-)urbanization, to achieve more sustainable resource use and mitigate climate change.

Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Crop Production and Management Practices, and Livestock: A Review

Agriculture is the second most important greenhouse gas (GHG: methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions)-emitting sector after the energy sector. Agriculture is also recognized as the source and sink of GHGs. The share of agriculture to the global GHG emission records has been widely investigated, but the impact on our food production systems has been overlooked for decades until the recent climate crisis. Livestock production and feed, nitrogen-rich fertilizers and livestock manure application, crop residue burning, as well as water management in flood-prone cultivation areas are components of agriculture that produce and emit most GHGs. Although agriculture produces 72–89% less GHGs than other sectors, it is believed that reducing GHG emissions in agriculture would considerably lower its share of the global GHG emission records, which may lead to enormous benefits for the environment and food production systems. However, several diverging and controversial views questioning the actual role of plants in the current global GHG budget continue to nourish the debate globally. We must acknowledge that considering the beneficial roles of major GHGs to plants at a certain level of accumulation, implementing GHG mitigation measures from agriculture is indeed a complex task. This work provides a comprehensive review of agriculture-related GHG production and emission mechanisms, as well as GHG mitigation measures regarded as potential solutions available in the literature. This review also discusses in depth the significance and the dynamics of mitigation measures regarded as game changers with a high potential to enhance, in a sustainable manner, the resilience of agricultural systems. Some of the old but essential agricultural practices and livestock feed techniques are revived and discussed. Agricultural GHG mitigation approaches discussed in this work can serve as game changers in the attempt to reduce GHG emissions and alleviate the impact of climate change through sustainable agriculture and informed decision-making.

No More Cattle?

Anthropogenic climate change is undeniably altering planet Earth, and agricultural emissions are a significant contributor to this crisis. Agriculture, specifically cattle farming, is a key emitter of GHG emissions, accounting for 14.5% of global GHG emissions. This paper thus asks, given that cattle farming contributes a significant amount of total global GHG emissions, if the elimination of cattle farming in the EU is a sustainable way to reduce total GHG emissions. This paper explores the sustainability of cattle farming in the EU and highlights the vital role that EU cattle farming plays in the EU economy and in meeting the global food supply. It also explores the role that beef consumption plays in human diets. By researching the available literature, this paper finds that the complete elimination of cattle farming in the EU would have devastating effects on the EU economy and would leave the global food demand largely unmet. Not to mention that the environmental benefits of eliminating cattle farming become less significant when accounting for the emissions of new economic activity on ex-cattle grazing lands. Thus, this paper highlights the importance of improving cattle management and changing dietary patterns to mitigate GHG emissions in the context of a worsening climate and an increasing global food demand that must be met.

The environmental and socioeconomic benefits of optimized fertilization for greenhouse vegetables

China produces more than half of global vegetables with greenhouse farms contributes approximately 35 % to the country's overall vegetable supply. The average nitrogen (N) application rate of greenhouse vegetable production exceeds 2000 kg N ha−1 yr−1, considerably contributing to global agricultural GHG emissions and reactive N (Nr) losses. Optimizing the N fertilizer utilization in greenhouse vegetable production is essential for mitigating environmental pollution and promoting sustainable development nationally and globally. In this study, we estimated the N footprint (NF), social costs (SC, which includes ecosystem and human health damage costs caused by Nr losses to the environment) and net ecosystem economic income (NEEI, which balances between the fertilizers input cost, yield profit, and social costs) of different greenhouse vegetables (tomato, pakchoi, lettuce, cabbage) under farmers' practice (FP) and reduced fertilization treatment (R). Results showed that compared with FP, the NF of tomato, pakchoi, lettuce and cabbage in the R treatment decreased by 61 %, 29 %, 46 % and 36 %, respectively, and the social costs were decreased by 60 %, 48 %, 57 % and 50 %, respectively. On the regional scale, the reduction in N fertilizer use for greenhouse vegetables in Beijing only could save the fertilizer input cost by 1–5 million USD, and avoided SC would increase by 1–14 million USD. As a result, this increased the NEEI by 2–19million USD. This study has demonstrated that adopting reduced fertilization practices represents a cost-effective measure that not only ensures yields but also decrease social costs, NF, and improve the benefits to help achieve sustainable development of greenhouse vegetable production.

The drivers of GHG emissions: A novel approach to estimate emissions using nonparametric analysis

The rising levels of global GHG emissions underpin climate change, hence, taking an appropriate inventory of the drivers and patterns of anthropogenic emissions remains crucial to mitigating global climate effects. However, there are conflicting views in the literature on the relationship between respective drivers and GHG emissions due to the lack of robust analysis that accommodates the interaction of all significant drivers. We use novel estimation techniques to decipher the 26-year inventory of GHG occurrences and simultaneous assessment of interactions in 50 countries stratified based on socioeconomic developments over the period 1990–2018. This study highlights different drivers of GHG emissions under broader categories such as population, economic development, forest density, and agricultural practices. Non-parametric estimations roughly confirm the magnitude of the influence of forests, agriculture, and land-use intensity on GHG emissions, ultimately tracking the most significant emission sinks.

Assessing the current and future effects of Covid-19 on energy related-CO2 emissions in the United States using seasonal fractional grey model

Accurate CO2 forecasting plays an important role in energy planning. However, in the annual forecasting studies on CO2 emissions, the seasonal effects cannot be predicted. To overcome this problem, this study proposed a novel prediction model based on the seasonally optimised fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (SOFANGBM(1,1)), combining the seasonal fluctuation technique with optimisation of the background, power index, and fractional order values. The proposed novel model offers two important improvements in prediction performance: (1) This model combined optimised fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (OFANGBM(1,1)) with the seasonal fluctuation technique to enable monthly and quarterly predictions (2) The seasonally optimised fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (SFANGBM(1,1)) was improved by optimising the background value. CO2 emissions had the largest share in global GHG emissions, and the United States was the second largest CO2 emission emitter worldwide after China in 2019. However, cases and deaths from Covid-19 continue in the United States, and important questions arise: How has Covid-19 affected CO2 emissions by fossil fuel type in the past, and how will it reshape them in the future? This study aimed to analyse how Covid-19 affects CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in the U.S., how it will reshape its future, and also contribute to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Quarterly CO2 emissions from coal, natural gas, petroleum, and total CO2 emissions in the U.S. were forecasted using a novel grey prediction model under pandemic and pandemic-free scenarios. The pandemic-free scenario determined the CO2 emissions gap due to Covid-19, and the pandemic scenario presented forecasted results of quarterly and annual CO2 emissions by 2025. The prediction performance was tested from 2022-Q1 to 2022-Q4 by simulated from 2015-Q1 to 2021-Q4. Using the SOFANGBM(1,1), Covid-19 caused 2 %, 2 %, 16 %, and 12 % reductions in CO2 emissions from coal, natural gas, petroleum, and total CO2 emissions, respectively, in 2020. SOFANGBM(1,1) also forecasts that total CO2 emissions will reach 4520.6 Mt by 2025.