Global Forest Loss Research Articles

Ecohydrological investigation of cloud seeding effect on vegetation activity in the Boryeong Dam Basin, South Korea

Cloud seeding is well known to address water shortage problems caused by droughts by adding more precipitation and consequent runoff. Unlike previous studies, this study investigates another positive effect of cloud seeding on the activation of vegetation by integrating numerical cloud seeding simulations and processed-based modeling of various ecohydrological components. As the carbon cycle is closely related to the hydrological processes in ecosystems, we adopt the RHESSys ecohydrological modeling to synthetically simulate runoff and soil moisture along with primary productivity and vegetation respiration. Numerical simulations with and without cloud seeding are generated by the WRF-ARW model for the Boryeong Dam basin, one of the basins vulnerable to droughts, in 2021. The cloud seeding simulations of two cases are input into the RHESSys model to examine changes in hydrological and ecological components due to the added amount of precipitation. The results exhibit significant increases in annual precipitation (18 %) and runoff (22 %), and enhanced soil moisture stimulating the ecological components such as GPP and NPP, especially in spring. Cloud seeding can be considered to create optimal conditions for vegetation to absorb or sequester carbon from the atmosphere, thereby boosting vegetation growth. Additionally, the time-lagged correlations between cloud seeding and soil moisture, GPP, NPP, and respiration suggest that vegetation activity is highly dependent on antecedent 1–2 months occurrences of cloud seeding. This study implies that the cloud seeding effect on additional NPP can be considered as a countermeasure of the global average forest loss, which means that carbon emission rise in the global warming era can be partly alleviated by cloud seeding.

Characterizing the Accelerated Global Carbon Emissions from Forest Loss during 1985–2020 Using Fine-Resolution Remote Sensing Datasets

Previous studies on global carbon emissions from forest loss have been marked by great discrepancies due to uncertainties regarding the lost area and the densities of different carbon pools. In this study, we employed a new global 30 m land cover dynamic dataset (GLC_FCS30D) to improve the assessment of forest loss areas; then, we combined multi-sourced carbon stock products to enhance the information on carbon density. Afterwards, we estimated the global carbon emissions from forest loss over the period of 1985–2020 based on the method recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines (IPCC). The results indicate that global forest loss continued to accelerate over the past 35 years, totaling about 582.17 Mha and leading to total committed carbon emissions of 35.22 ± 9.38 PgC. Tropical zones dominated global carbon emissions (~2/3) due to their higher carbon density and greater forest loss. Furthermore, global emissions more than doubled in the period of 2015–2020 (1.77 ± 0.44 PgC/yr) compared to those in 1985–2000 (0.69 ± 0.21 PgC/yr). Notably, the forest loss at high altitudes (i.e., above 1000 m) more than tripled in mountainous regions, resulting in more pronounced carbon emissions in these areas. Therefore, the accelerating trend of global carbon emissions from forest loss indicates that great challenges still remain for achieving the COP 26 Declaration to halt forest loss by 2030.

Carbon Loss from Earthquake Induced Landslides in Fiordland

Landslides triggered by two earthquakes in Fiordland, New Zealand, were mapped using Google Earth Pro retro satellite imagery (eye altitude of 1.5-2.5 km, enabling ± 50 m precision), then catalogued and classified in a GIS inventory. Ground acceleration during the 2003 Mw 7.2 Secretary Island Earthquake resulted in at least 1852 landslides, but the larger Mw 7.8 2009 Dusky Sound Earthquake had lower accelerations and produced only 313. Both events dislodged large swaths of native forest, grassland vegetation and soil from Fiordland’s steep slopes in similar proportions, some landing in rivers and fiords. The landslide maps and magnitude-frequency distributions show close similarity to a published Global Forest Loss dataset derived from 2001-2022 satellite imagery. Assuming forest loss in this wilderness is predominantly landslide-related, it enables the more-precise earthquake-induced landslide mapping to be placed in a longer-term context of other vegetation loss, mostly rainfall-induced landslides, during the past two decades. The total area of forest loss during the 2003 earthquake was anomalous, whereas during 2009 the earthquake losses were similar to areas of forest loss assumed to be rainfall-induced landslides throughout Fiordland each year. Carbon concentrations of landslide vegetation and soil were calculated by defining vegetation types from a published Land Cover Database, and soil organic carbon concentration from a 1 km resolution raster dataset. Total carbon loss from earthquake-induced landslides amounts to 2.05E+06 tonnes for the 2003 Mw7.2 and 2.17E+05 tonnes for the 2009 Mw 7.8. By way of comparison, New Zealand’s total annual carbon sequestration was 6.3E+06 tonnes in 2020. Earthquake-induced and rainfall-induced landslides are shown to account for significant changes in stored carbon and available carbon sequestration, especially in areas of densely vegetated land, such as Fiordland. Processes of landscape disturbance should be included in carbon accounting and estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions.
 
 Supervised by: Caroline Orchiston
 Scholarship Project Funded by: Centre for Sustainability

30 m Resolution Global Maps of Forest Soil Respiration and Its Changes From 2000 to 2020

AbstractThe soil respiration (Rs) of forests is a major component of global Rs, yet few studies have focused on it. This study aimed to estimate global forest Rs and its changes at a resolution of 30 m via an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Five input candidates representing forest type, climatic, soil, and geographical information, as well as 1472 satisfactory forest Rs records, were used to build the ANN model and evaluate the model performance via a 10‐fold cross‐validation scheme. Global forest change data sets were used to accurately define the extent of forests and their changes, which was achievable because of the dynamic information and high resolution (30 m) of the data sets. The results indicate that the average annual global forest Rs from 2000 to 2020, as estimated by the optimal ANN model with an r2 value of 0.67 and a root‐mean‐square error of 252.6 g C m−2 yr−1, was 46.24 ± 5.86 Pg C yr−1. From 2001 to 2019, the average theoretical annual global forest Rs loss was 0.22 ± 0.06 Pg C yr−1 due to an average forest loss area of 23.4 million ha yr−1. In addition, the annual Rs theoretically increased by 0.75 Pg C in 2012 due to a global forest gain area of 80.5 million from 2001 to 2012. The presented data sets of global forest Rs and its changes can provide an accurate benchmark for discussing the carbon cycle and climate change at global to regional scales, even when operating over a small forest area (i.e., dozens of ha), which is a scale that has been ignored in other global Rs studies.

Accounting for forest fire risks: global insights for climate change mitigation

Fire is an important risk in global forest loss and contributed 20% to 25% of the global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions between 1997 and 2016. Forest fire risks will increase with climate change in some locations, but existing estimates of the costs of using forests for climate mitigation do not yet fully account for these risks or how these risks change inter-temporally. To quantify the importance of forest fire risks, we undertook a global study of individual country fire risks, combining economic datasets and global remote sensing data from 2001 to 2020. Our estimates of forest fire risk premia better account for the risk of forest burning that would be additional to the risk-free and break-even price of credits or offsets to promote carbon sequestration and storage in forests. Our results show the following: (1) forest fire risk premia can be much larger than the historical forest area burned; (2) for some countries, forest fire risk premia have a large impact on the relative country-level break-even price of carbon credits or offsets; (3) a large spatial and inter-temporal heterogeneity of forest fires across countries between 2001 and 2020; and (4) the importance of properly incorporating forest fire risk premia into carbon credits/offset programs. As part of our analysis, and to emphasise the possible sub-national scale differences, our results highlight the heterogeneity in fire risk premia across 10 Canadian provinces.

Understanding Community Participation in Tree Planting and Management in Deforested Areas in Cameroon's Western Highlands.

Deforestation and forest degradation continue to take place at alarming rates in Africa despite global net forest loss reductions. This is prompting large-scale forest restoration involving community volunteers to prevent, halt and reverse the loss of biodiversity for the sustainable development of forest landscapes in Africa. The study explored the motivations, challenges, barriers and negotiation strategies of community volunteers in ecosystem restoration and conservation initiatives in Cameroon's Western Highlands (Mount Bamboutos landscape), given that many such interventions are not achieving desired targets and goals. A total of 134 respondents involving farmers and local implementing NGO workers were interviewed, using semi-structured open-ended questionnaires. One focus group discussion was held with paramount traditional rulers to assess the strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of the community-led ecosystem restoration and conservation initiative. The principal components analysis with oblique (Direct oblimin) rotation was used to reduce the number of constitutive items in each dimension of motivation, challenge and barrier to community participation. Linear regression analysis was used to examine how the different dimensions of motivations, challenges and barriers influence community participation. Community participation was initially driven more by environmental motivations given the highly deforested and degraded Mount Bamboutos landscape, but later on driven more by economic and community motivations. Social factors were least expressed and non-significant predictors of participation. Community participation was primarily limited by management, financial, psychological, personal, and information challenges and barriers. Providing financial incentives to cover daily subsistence costs of food and transport was a key negotiation strategy that increased community participation. Conservation organisations should capitalise on environment, community and social motivational appeals during community education and awareness campaigns to increase voluntary community participation. The local knowledge on ecosystem restoration and conservation motivations, challenges, barriers, negotiation strategies, recommendations and SWOT analysis provide relevant baseline information for environment management decision-makers in Cameroon and other Sub-Saharan African countries.

What will it cost to achieve the COP26 Glasgow forest agreement commitment and halt global forest loss?

We quantified the minimum payments to halt global net forest loss by 2030, as per the commitment made by countries to the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forest and Land Use (GFA) at COP26 for the top 20 signatory countries (GFA20) in terms of net forest loss by area. We identified three possible pathways to achieve the GFA and quantified the differences in the avoided loss in carbon-sink capacity of forests in GFA20 countries due to forest loss. We calculated the difference in carbon-sink capacity between our best-case pathway (lowest net forest loss to achieve the GFA) and worst-case BAU pathway at 42 GtCO2e to 2030 and 152 GtCO2e to 2050. Further, we estimated the average per-hectare cost for each country and constructed a combined Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) for the GFA20. Based on the country-specific average cost and the MACC, we calculated that to deliver the GFA, at a minimum, would cost an additional 11–52 billion USD (2020 value) to 2030 and a further 343–694 billion USD between 2031 and 2050, over and above pre-COP26 funding commitments in forest conservation.

Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil

Zero-deforestation supply chain policies that leverage the market power of commodity buyers to change agricultural producer behavior can reduce forest clearing in regions with rapid commodity expansion and weak forest governance. Yet leakage—when deforestation is pushed to other regions—may dilute the global effectiveness of regionally successful policies. Here we show that domestic leakage offsets 43-50% of the avoided deforestation induced by existing and proposed zero-deforestation supply chain policies in Brazil’s soy sector. However, cross-border leakage is insignificant (<3%) because soybean production is displaced to existing U.S. farmland. Eliminating deforestation from the supply chains of all firms exporting Brazilian soy to the EU or China from 2011-2016 could have reduced net global deforestation by 2% and Brazilian deforestation by 9%. Thus, if major tropical commodity importers (e.g., the EU) require traders to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains, it could help bend the curve on global forest loss.

Spatiotemporal pattern of global forest change over the past 60 years and the forest transition theory

Forest ecosystems play an indispensable role in addressing various pressing sustainability and social-ecological challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss. However, global forest loss has been, and still is today, an important issue. Here, based on spatially explicit data, we show that over the past 60 years (1960–2019), the global forest area has declined by 81.7 million ha (i.e. 10% more than the size of the entire Borneo island), with forest loss (437.3 million ha) outweighing forest gain (355.6 million ha). With this forest decline and the population increase (4.68 billion) over the period, the global forest per capita has decreased by over 60%, from 1.4 ha in 1960 to 0.5 ha in 2019. The spatiotemporal pattern of forest change supports the forest transition theory, with forest losses occurring primarily in the lower income countries in the tropics and forest gains in the higher income countries in the extratropics. Furthermore, economic growth has a stronger association with net forest gain than with net forest loss. Our results highlight the need to strengthen the support given to lower income countries, especially in the tropics, to help improve their capacity to minimize or end their forest losses. To help address the displacement of forest losses to the lower income countries in the tropics, higher income nations need to reduce their dependence on imported tropical forest products.

Pre-germination treatments on Ochetophila trinervis, a native Andean tree with potential use for restoration

In a climate change scenario, global forest loss had a direct impact on the hydrological cycle, making the protection of soil and water resources a central issue. In the Central Andes of western Argentina, information on Chacay (Ochetophila trinervis) mountain forests is scarce. This tree thrives along river and stream banks, fixes atmospheric nitrogen, and grows in impoverished soils. The seeds of O. trinervis are characterized by physical or physiological dormancy, and germination requires technique application. The main goal was to evaluate the effect of mechanical and chemical scarification, cold stratification, and hot water immersion on the final germination percentage, germination speed index, and the mean germination time of O. trinervis seeds. Our results show that mechanical and chemical scarification are the treatments that best inhibit seed dormancy in this species. Mechanical scarification with sandpaper is the treatment that offers a balance between effective results and an easy-to-apply technique. Sulfuric acid (SA) treatment is also efficient in breaking dormancy, but we recommend applying it under extreme careful laboratory conditions. Highlitghs: Our findings support the hypothesis that the seeds of O. trinervis show physical dormancy because either mechanical (M) or chemical scarification (SA) techniques achieved the highest germination values. Our results indicate that mechanical scarification (M) might be a practical option for O. trinervis seedling germination in the Central Andes of Western Argentina. Sulfuric acid (SA) treatment is also efficient in breaking dormancy, but we recommend applying it under extreme careful laboratory conditions.

Climate Change Impacts on Forests and the Livelihoods of Tribal People of Northeast India

The degradation of forest lands has severe impacts on the environment and livelihoods of the people including health and socio-economic condition. One of the main drivers of forest degradation is slash-and-burn agriculture practiced traditionally in the hills of tropics and it accounts 60 percent global forest loss every year. In northeast India, this method of agriculture is practiced extensively and about 0.45 million families are involved in this activity. The forest area covered annually by this cultivation is about 10,000 km2. At present in northeast, the estimated land under shifting cultivation or jhum is estimated to be 44,000 km2. Loss of forests due to shifting cultivation has caused many problems ranging from floods to aridity and catastrophic losses to water quality. Besides, burnt practices of biomass release GHG (greenhouse gases) and this could play significant role for climate vulnerability in the region like northeast. Climate vulnerability significantly affects the traditional matriarchal society in many parts of tribal areas, socio-economic and ecological conditions, health and the livelihoods. In all these aspects, women are the most sufferers and vulnerable. The increasing numbers of flash floods in this region destroy the standing crops and damage the down slope areas with the debris carried by the flood water. This becomes a regular event during the rainy seasons. The rich customs and traditions of the tribal people help to develop some innovative strategies using locally available resources to overcome this type of unwanted situations.

Citizen monitoring promotes informed and inclusive forest governance in Liberia

Global forest loss depends on decisions made in the rural, often poor communities living beside the Earth's remaining forests. Governance problems in these forest-edge communities contribute to rapid deforestation and household vulnerability. In coordination with experimental studies in 5 other countries, we evaluate a program that recruits, trains, and deploys citizens to monitor communal forestland in 60 communities in rural Liberia. The year-long intervention is designed to promote more informed and inclusive resource governance, so that that citizens' preferences (and not just leaders' interests) are reflected in forest management. In our control communities, households are uninformed and disengaged; leaders' authority is unchecked. The program both engages and mobilizes community members: households are better informed and participate more in the design and enforcement of rules around forest use. They also report receiving more material benefits from outside investors' activities in their community forests. The chiefs who lead these communities attest to strengthened accountability. Using both on-the-ground environmental assessments and remotely sensed data, we find no effects on forest use or deforestation. Households do not favor more conservation, and, thus, more inclusive management does not reduce forest use. Conservation likely requires compensating community members for foregoing forest use; citizen monitoring, we argue, could ensure that such schemes enjoy popular support and do not just benefit local elites.

The role of fire in global forest loss dynamics.

Fires, among other forms of natural and anthropogenic disturbance, play a central role in regulating the location, composition and biomass of forests. Understanding the role of fire in global forest loss is crucial in constraining land‐use change emissions and the global carbon cycle. We analysed the relationship between forest loss and fire at 500 m resolution based on satellite‐derived data for the 2003–2018 period. Satellite fire data included burned area and active fire detections, to best account for large and small fires, respectively. We found that, on average, 38 ± 9% (± range) of global forest loss was associated with fire, and this fraction remained relatively stable throughout the study period. However, the fraction of fire‐related forest loss varied substantially on a regional basis, and showed statistically significant trends in key tropical forest areas. Decreases in the fraction of fire‐related forest loss were found where deforestation peaked early in our study period, including the Amazon and Indonesia while increases were found for tropical forests in Africa. The inclusion of active fire detections accounted for 41%, on average, of the total fire‐related forest loss, with larger contributions in small clearings in interior tropical forests and human‐dominated landscapes. Comparison to higher‐resolution fire data with resolutions of 375 and 20 m indicated that commission errors due to coarse resolution fire data largely balanced out omission errors due to missed small fire detections for regional to continental‐scale estimates of fire‐related forest loss. Besides an improved understanding of forest dynamics, these findings may help to refine and separate fire‐related and non‐fire‐related land‐use change emissions in forested ecosystems.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land‐uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO2 sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land‐use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under ‘business as usual’ rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

A global assessment of the impact of individual protected areas on preventing forest loss.

Globally, the number and extent of terrestrial protected areas (PAs) are expanding rapidly. Nonetheless, their impacts on preventing forest loss and the factors influencing the impacts are not well understood, despite the critical roles of forests in biodiversity conservation, provision of ecosystem services, and achievement of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. To address this important knowledge gap, we quantified the impacts of 54,792 PAs worldwide on preventing forest loss from 2000 to 2015, and assessed important landscape and management factors affecting the impacts of PAs. Although the majority (71.4%) of the PAs contributed to preventing forest loss, only 30.5% of forest loss in the PAs have been prevented. PAs with higher rates of forest loss in their surrounding regions, located at lower elevations, within a few hours of travel from the nearest city, with higher agricultural productivity, and permission for fewer human uses were better able to prevent forest loss. Impacts on preventing forest loss were similar regardless of whether the PAs were privately or publicly owned. Our findings highlight the potential benefits of strict protections, involving private entities in the establishment of PAs, and situating PAs in areas exposed to high risks of forest loss to enhance the capacity to combat global forest loss.

Impact of Ex-Closure in above and below Ground Carbon Stock Biomass

Globally, there is a serious issue in carbon stock due to high deforestation and the loss of land, limited carbon storage pools in aboveground and underground forests in different regions, and increased carbon emissions to the atmosphere. This review paper highlights the impact of exclosures on above and below ground carbon stocks in biomass as a solution to globally curb carbon emissions. The data has been analyzed dependent on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Forest Resource Assessment report (FRA, 2020), and scientific journal publications mostly from the last decade, to show the research results of carbon stock and the impact of exclosures, particularly the challenges of deforestation and erosion of land and opportunities of area exclosures to provide a general outlook for policymakers. Overall, the world’s forest regions are declining, and although the forest loss rate has slowed, it has still not stopped sufficiently because the knowledge and practice of exclosures are limited. The global forest loss and carbon stock have decreased from 7.8 million ha/yr to 4.7 million ha/yr and from 668 gigatons to 662 gigatons respectively due to multiple factors that differ across the regions. However, a move toward natural rehabilitation and exclosures to reduce the emissions of Greenhouse Gas (GHGs) is needed. In the global production of carbon, the exclosure of forests plays an important role, in particular for permanent sinks of carbon.

A Planetary Perspective of Earth Systems Sustainability: Reframing Climate Change Implications from Agricultural Adaptations in Maya Milpa Farming Communities in Belize

In a case review of climate-smart agriculture practices in Mayan milpa farming communities in Belize (Central America), this pa- per reframes how small-scale agriculture practices can influence larger Earth systems sustainability. In what has been a sustainable form of farming for hundreds of years, the milpa has become less sustainable due to global climate change, forest loss, soil degradation, population growth, and other factors. This article reviews the findings of a 2020 study of positive socio-ecological systems (SES) influences —environmental, economic, socio-cultural, and technological— from climate-smart practices on local resource sustainability. SES considers several multidisciplinary linkages of human and ecological factors in the agroecological system. SES considers several multidisciplinary linkages of human and ecological factors in the agroecological system. SES influences from small-scale climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices can have both micro-scale impacts as well as macro-scale implications for SES sustainability and food security. Understanding the implications of small-scale farming on larger Earth systems can inform global climate change mitigations and government policy and action needed to promote CSA practices. This is important for the resilience of vulnerable populations such as Belizean milpa farming communities and others who rely directly on resource sustainability for their food and livelihood security.

The Values of Sacred Swamps: Belief-Based Nature Conservation in a Secular World

Global forest loss is highest in the tropical region, an area with high biological biodiversity. As some of these forests are part of indigenous forest management, it is important to pay attention to such management, its values and practices for better conservation. This paper focuses on sacred freshwater swamp forests of the Western Ghats, India, and with it a faith-based approach to nature conservation. Drawing on fieldwork and focus groups, we present the rituals and rules that structure the governance of sacred swamps. We also discuss in depth the ecological, socio-cultural and economic valuation of these freshwater swamps by various local groups. In this way, we show overlaps and differences of valuation among different groups. In the context of a secular state with a diversity of faith groups and migration dynamics, we propose that faith-based governance of sacred swamps can benefit from the emphasis of faith-independent, ‘accessible’ ecological, socio-cultural and economic values to foster a dialogue around sacred swamps and their place for livelihoods and nature conservation.

Understanding the Stickiness of Commodity Supply Chains Is Key to Improving Their Sustainability

Summary Commodity trade is central to the global economy but is also associated with socio-environmental impacts, for example, deforestation, especially in producer countries. It is crucial to understand how geographic sourcing patterns of commodities and commercial relationships between places and actors influence land-use dynamics, socio-economic development, and environmental degradation. Here, we propose a concept and methodological approach to analyze the geographic stickiness of commodity supply chains, which is the maintenance of supply network configurations over time and across perturbations. We showcase policy-relevant metrics for all Brazilian soy exports between 2003 and 2017, using high-resolution supply chain data from www.trase.earth . We find that the Brazilian soy traders with the largest market share exhibit stickier geographic sourcing patterns, and that the supply network configurations between production places and traders become increasingly sticky in subsequent years. Understanding trade stickiness is crucial for supply chain accountability, because it directly affects the effectiveness of zero-deforestation commitments.

Which forests could be protected by corporate zero deforestation commitments? A spatial assessment

The production of palm oil, soy, beef and timber are key drivers of global forest loss. For this reason, over 470 companies involved in the production, processing or distribution of these commodities have issued commitments to eliminate or reduce deforestation from their supply chains. However, the effectiveness of these commitments is uncertain since there is considerable variation in ambition and scope and there are no globally agreed definitions of what constitutes a forest. Many commitments identify high conservation value forests (HCVFs), high carbon stock forests (HCSFs) and forests on tropical peatland as priority areas for conservation. This allows for mapping of the global extent of forest areas classified as such, to achieve an assessment of the area that may be at reduced risk of development if companies comply with their zero deforestation commitments. Depending on the criteria used, the results indicate that between 34% and 74% of global forests qualify as either HCVF, HCSF or forests on tropical peatland. However, we found that the total extent of these forest areas varies widely depending on the choice of forest map. Within forests which were not designated as HCVF, HCSF or forests on tropical peatland, there is substantial overlap with areas that are highly suitable for agricultural development. Since these areas are unlikely to be protected by zero-deforestation commitments, they may be subject to increased pressure resulting from leakage of areas designated as HCVF, HCSF and tropical peatland forests. Considerable uncertainties around future outcomes remain, since only a proportion of the global market is currently covered by corporate commitments. Further work is needed to map the synergies between corporate commitments and government policies on land use. In addition, standardized criteria for delineating forests covered by the commitments are recommended.