Global Financial Research Articles

Enhancing currency prediction in international e-commerce: Bayesian-optimized random forest approach using the Klarna dataset

In the ever-evolving landscape of global commerce, marked by the convergence of digital transformation and borderless markets, this research addresses the intricate challenges of currency exchange and risk management. Leveraging Bayesian optimization, the study fine-tunes the random forest algorithm using the extensive Klarna E-commerce dataset. Through systematic analysis, the research uncovers insights into managing currency prediction amid dynamic global markets. Emphasizing the role of Bayesian optimization parameters, the study reveals nuanced trade-offs in model performance. Notably, the optimal simulation, conducted with 14 iterations, 1 job, and a random state set to 684, exhibits a standout performance, showcasing a negative mean squared error (MSE) of approximately -0.9891 and an accuracy rate of 74.63%. The primary objective is to assess the impact of Bayesian optimization in enhancing the random forest algorithm's predictive capabilities, particularly in currency prediction within international e-commerce. These findings offer refined strategies for businesses navigating the intricate landscape of global finance, empowering decision-making through a comprehensive understanding of data, algorithms, and challenges in international commerce.

Financial globalization, governance and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Purpose The study aims to assess the interplay between financial globalization, effective governance and economic growth in sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies. Design/methodology/approach This study uses the Generalized Method of Moment Estimation and the Panel Quantile Regression techniques to analyze how financial globalization and governance impact sub-Saharan African economies. Findings The results show that governance is vital to the region's economic development. In order to achieve significant growth, sub-Saharan African economies must prioritize actions that promote good governance. Research limitations/implications The study is limited to sub-Saharan African economies. Practical implications It is crucial for the sub-Saharan Africa economies to concentrate on strengthening governance frameworks in order to realize its full economic potential because improvements in governance quality would have a favorable effect on economic growth. Social implications The findings indicate that both capital inflows and governance dynamics are essential for fostering economic growth in SSA economies. Also, balancing globalization's benefits with effective governance is crucial for promoting sustainable growth in SSA. Originality/value This paper fills a gap in literature by using the KOF financial globalization index to assess the impact of financial globalization and governance on economic growth in sub-Saharan African economies.

Theoretical Foundations of the Foreign Economic Relations Strategy of the Russian Federation at the Present Stage

Introduction. The author of this text is convinced that in the modern world foreign economic relations remain a crucial way of maintaining economic activity. Sustainable economic relations with other states are a necessary condition for the country's economic growth. However, due to changes in the global financial, economic and political systems, Russia is forced to look for new economic and political allies. The main task for our country is to establish close and mutually beneficial relations with the leading countries of the East, such as China and India, in order to ensure economic security in the face of possible isolation in the international arena.Materials and methods. The methodological basis of this research was made up of general scientific and special research methods, such as induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, classification, comparative, descriptive, comparative, logical, structural-functional methods, various methods of statistical analysis. The author of the study used tabular and graphical forms of representation of the processes and phenomena under consideration.Research results. The study revealed that Russian government authorities use various tools to maintain foreign trade and ensure economic security in the context of anti-Russian sanctions. The balance between protectionist and free trade policies depends on the situation in international markets, the geopolitical situation in the world, but especially on the level of competitiveness. The introduction of sanctions by the collective West has become the main factor, changing the foreign economic situation for Russia in 2022. Russia’s new foreign economic strategy is based on the search for friendly partners, willing to purchase sanctioned goods. Thanks to this strategy, Russia was able to reorient foreign economic relations towards Asia and the Middle East, as well as to establish parallel imports while maintaining competitiveness and even increasing foreign trade turnover.Discussion and conclusion. The need for Russia to enter the Chinese and Indian trade markets and to strengthen foreign economic relations with Asia is substantiated; the main groups of goods that can contribute to the development of mutually beneficial exchange and strengthening of economic cooperation between these countries are analyzed; the possibility and importance of further development of foreign economic relations with Asian states, which can become no less important and useful partners for Russia than the former states of Europe, have been proven.

PROSPECTS FOR REGULATION OF ACCOUNTING AND TAXATION OF VIRTUAL ASSETS IN UKRAINE

Introduction. The advent of virtual assets has brought both challenges and opportunities, reshaping global financial systems and necessitating updated regulatory, accounting, and taxation frameworks. Ukraine stands at a critical juncture, integrating these digital innovations into its legal and financial infrastructure while aligning with global standards. Purpose. This article aims to provide a thorough examination of Ukraine’s developing frameworks for the regulation, accounting, and taxation of virtual assets. It assesses the effectiveness of current strategies and identifies areas for enhancement to ensure a robust integration of virtual assets into Ukraine's financial system. Methods. The research employs a comparative analysis method, juxtaposing Ukraine's frameworks with global standards. This approach is supported by a review of recent academic literature and regulatory reports, offering a comprehensive perspective on the adaptation processes and methodologies applied in the integration of virtual assets. Results. The findings reveal that while Ukraine has made significant progress, particularly with the adoption of the "Law on Virtual Assets," gaps remain in fully securing a stable and transparent virtual asset market. The study highlights the need for continual regulatory updates and the adoption of international accounting standards to manage the complexity and volatility of virtual assets. Conclusion. Ukraine’s proactive regulatory adaptations position it to potentially lead in the integration of virtual assets globally. Continued alignment with international standards and responsive updates to regulatory frameworks are essential to harness the economic benefits and mitigate associated risks. This ongoing evolution will support Ukraine's strategic positioning in the global digital economy and foster a stable environment for innovation and investment in virtual assets.

Greening the future: assessing the influence of technological innovation, energy transition and financial globalization on ecological footprint in selected emerging countries

Greening the future: assessing the influence of technological innovation, energy transition and financial globalization on ecological footprint in selected emerging countries

The Impact of Digital Financial Services on Financial Inclusion: A Panel Data Regression Method

This paper delves into the intricate relationship between digital financial services (DFS), traditional payment methods (TPM), economic factors, and demographic variables in a quest to enhance financial inclusion. Panel data regression models were employed to analyse the data encompassing credit card access, borrowing, mobile money accounts, electronic payments, and economic and demographic factors. The findings underscore the pivotal role of digital financial services in promoting financial inclusion, particularly mobile money accounts and electronic payments. These services offer cost-effective and efficient alternatives to traditional banking, facilitating greater economic participation. Furthermore, the study reveals the influence of conventional payment methods, with suggestive continuing relevance on a long run. Economic and demographic factors such as age, income, education, and gender emerge as crucial determinants of financial inclusion, emphasising the need for tailored strategies in diverse population segments. Overall, the results are promising with demonstrable statistically significant evidence in the approach to financial inclusion, leveraging digital innovations while addressing various economic factors and demographic groups' needs. The approach seems to guarantee a more equitable, accessible and efficient global financial system to foster economic growth and societal well-being. Thus, the output in this paper will be economically useful to financial institutions, modern digital technology companies and further researchers who aimed to continuously adapt and improve the approach to financial inclusion.

Follow the money: a global analysis of funding dynamics for global health security.

Global financing for health security was dramatically impacted by COVID-19. Here, we provide an empirical analysis of how that funding changed. Using data from Global Health Security (GHS) Tracking (tracking.ghscosting.org), we analyzed disbursements of direct financial assistance for GHS from 2016 to 2022 to compare pre-pandemic funding (2016-2019) to post-pandemic funding (2020-2022) for preparedness and response during each of the seven World Health Organization-declared public health emergencies of international concern (PHEICs) from 2009 to 2022. Over $165B was disbursed for capacity-building and preparedness activities between January 2016 and December 2022, and over $76B was provided for PHEIC response. Preparedness funding remained evenly distributed since 2016 across regions, with the African region receiving about 70% of total preparedness funding. Indeed, how capacity-building and preparedness funding is distributed has changed remarkably little since 2016, despite unprecedented changes to the funding environment-including markedly increased spending-in response to COVID-19. This suggests we now have a unique opportunity to restructure how funds are tracked for accountability and assessing return on investment moving forward.

Significance of International Reserves in the Global Anti-Crisis Financing System

Significance of International Reserves in the Global Anti-Crisis Financing System

Intersecting Dynamics: The Role of International Carbon Markets and Private Credit in Reshaping Global Financial Systems

This paper explores the dynamic interplay among the development of international carbon markets, the ongoing global retirement savings crisis, and the rising prominence of private credit. The growth of carbon markets as a cornerstone of climate policy initiatives is reshaping global financial landscapes, influencing investment strategies, particularly within pension funds, and enhancing the appeal of private credit as an alternative investment avenue. This comprehensive analysis addresses how the integration of carbon markets with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria into investment decisions is pivotal in resolving the retirement savings shortfall while fostering sustainable financial growth.

A multimodal aftercare intervention improves the outcome after kidney transplantation – results of the KTx360° aftercare program using claims data

The after-care treatment project KTx360° aimed to reduce graft failure and mortality after kidney transplantation (KTx). The study was conducted in the study centers Hannover, Erlangen and Hannoversch Muenden from May 2017 to October 2020 under the trial registration ISRCTN29416382. The program provided a multimodal aftercare program including specialized case management, telemedicine support, psychological and exercise assessments, and interventions. For the analysis of graft failure, which was defined as death, re-transplantation or start of long-term dialysis, we used longitudinal claims data from participating statutory health insurances (SHI) which enabled us to compare participants with controls. To balance covariate distributions between these nonrandomized groups we used propensity score methodology, in particular the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach. In total, 930 adult participants were recruited at three different transplant centres in Germany, of whom 320 were incident (enrolled within the first year after KTx) and 610 prevalent (enrolled >1 year after KTx) patients. Due to differences in the availability of the claims data, the claims data of 411 participants and 418 controls could be used for the analyses. In the prevalent group we detected a significantly lower risk for graft failure in the study participants compared to the matched controls (HR=0.13, 95% CI=0.04-0.39, p=0.005, n=389 observations), whereas this difference could not be detected in the incident group (HR=0.92, 95% CI=0.54-1.56, p=0.837, n=440 observations). Our findings suggest that a multimodal and multidisciplinary aftercare intervention can significantly improve outcome after KTx, specifically in patients later after KTx. For evaluation of effects on these outcome parameters in patients enrolled within the first year after transplantation longer observation times are necessary. The study was funded by the Global Innovation fund of the Joint Federal Committee of the Federal Republic of Germany, grant number 01NVF16009.

Analysis of the Impact of Cybersecurity on The Stability of Financial Institutions

The issue of the impact of cybersecurity is a top priority for the functioning of a financial institution. Therefore, its provision becomes a priority in organizing the further activities of the institution itself. The article aims to analyze the current trends in ensuring the cybersecurity of financial institutions and its role in their functioning. The paper describes the theoretical foundations of the cyber protection concept. The authors also outline the specifics of cybersecurity and the leading technological solutions for achieving these goals. Special attention is paid to modern, innovative solutions to maintain the stability of financial institutions and the possibility of further development. An important area of research is the disclosure of the practical experience of information corporations in providing technical solutions to ensure the security of financial transactions and support the global financial system. The study presents the experience of Ukrainian financial institutions that use variable digital defense strategies and maintain their functionality based on an effective cybersecurity system in the context of a global military conflict. The results of the study include a detailed profile of effective practical solutions to ensure the stability of financial institutions based on the implementation of blockchain technologies. The authors pay attention to the issue of modern software, hardware, and management solutions to improve the quality of cybersecurity in the context of growing cyberattacks and digital threats to the stability of financial institutions. The research findings may be helpful for further analytical studies on the effectiveness of cybersecurity and the stability of financial institutions.

De‐risking at the Limit? State‐owned Enterprises and the Politics of Financialized Infrastructure Development in Indonesia

ABSTRACTThe need for emerging economies to develop infrastructure in order to drive catch‐up growth has become a common refrain in policy circuits. The dominant norm promulgated and disseminated by global development institutions to countries facing infrastructure deficits is the public–private partnership (PPP) model of project finance, a market‐based model that seeks to transform infrastructure into a financial asset. Institutionalizing this model requires the deepening of market rationality in governance and the establishment of markets for infrastructure projects and infrastructure debt, underpinned by regulatory and institutional changes aimed at de‐risking global investments. However, this model is neither overriding nor monolithic. It is contested, modified and augmented by alternative state‐led models, rationalities and practices, animated by developmental politics. The article examines the embeddedness of the PPP model in Indonesia, where it is selectively appropriated by politicians and bureaucrats in line with state development objectives by mobilizing state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) as developers, insurers and financiers of infrastructure projects. Beyond establishing the conditions for market exchange and de‐risking capital, the state, through SOEs, is an active market participant, competing and partnering with private sector actors, while advancing state‐led alternatives where the market‐based model fails to address development needs. This case highlights the potential for developmental politics to shape the broad use of capital in the face of disciplinary pressure from global finance.

Sustainable Finance: Driving a Greener Future

Sustainable finance represents a pivotal mechanism in reshaping global financial systems towards a more environmentally conscious and resilient future. This paper delves into the multifaceted landscape of sustainable finance, elucidating its historical underpinnings, defining its parameters, and examining its various components. From Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria to the burgeoning green bonds market and the transformative potential of impact investing, each facet is meticulously explored. The paper also probes the integration of sustainable finance principles within financial institutions and the influence of regulatory frameworks on fostering sustainability. Challenges such as the lack of standardized metrics and opportunities offered by technological advancements are scrutinized, offering a nuanced understanding of the field. Through a synthesis of analysis, illustrative examples, and case studies, this paper underscores the pivotal role of sustainable finance in driving economic growth while advancing environmental and social imperatives.

Today’s Finance Markets in Conditions of Poly-Crisis and Crisis of Cost of Living

The article provides characteristics, statistics and factual material on countries connected with the current global economic crisis of the cost of living. The notion of the current poly-crisis was defined as a sum total of old and new risks in their close interaction and their adverse impact on global and national economy and finance markets. The focus was made on tightening of monetary and credit policy of national central banks in 2022–2023 in view of combating inflation, which resulted in more expensive credits, higher profitability of state treasury bonds, bankruptcy of corporations and declining standard of living of people. On the background of the global poly-crisis the author assessed macro-prudential policy of the Bank of Russia and standing of its banking system, including market of preferential mortgage with state support. Within the frames of crisis-management risks of Russian insurance and re-insurance industries were shown, as well as non-credit life insurance as a today’s driver of insurance market growth. In view of import-substitution policy an important innovation of the Moscow exchange – the informational-analytical, financial and trade terminal ‘Trade Radar’ was put forward. The author showed economic essence, trends and tools of de-dollarization policy of Russia and friendly countries, including BRICS project aiming at development of common supranational payment unit.

Quanto fund protection using partial lookback participation

In light of the intricate nature of global fund markets, investors need securities that enable them to manage the values of foreign funds adjusted by exchange rates, commonly referred to as quanto fund values. This paper delves into the development of contracts that protect quanto fund values through partial lookback participation and their valuations. In order to accomplish this, we derive a generalized analytical expected value of a function of state variables and partial extreme, which serves to streamline the process of developing and pricing exotic quanto fund protections. These pricing formulas are useful in determining fair participation rates for a preferred return during a monitoring period. Numerical experiments that showcase the properties of the proposed contracts are provided.

Cascading failures in the global financial system: A dynamical model

In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to capture cascading failures among interconnected organizations in the global financial system and develop a framework to investigate under which conditions organizations remain healthy. The contribution of this paper is threefold: i) we develop a dynamical model that describes the time evolution of the organizations' equity values given nonequilibrium initial conditions; ii) we characterize the equilibria for this model; and iii) we provide a computational method to anticipate potential propagation of failures.

Феномен долларового парадокса и его роль в трансформации современной мировой валютно-финансовой системы

Currently, fundamental transformations are occurring within the global monetary-financial system. Contrary to the prevalent belief in the decline of the dollar, this article seeks to demonstrate that the American currency exhibits adaptive properties, which solidify its position in the international financial system, albeit possibly at a lower level. The experiences of other countries in promoting their national currencies in the international exchange, trade, and investment systems indicate that all such attempts yield varying degrees of success. Regarding the life cycle of foreign currencies, they initially establish themselves rapidly, increasing their share in operations, but then quickly encounter a natural limit and retract within their respective countries. Conclusion dwells upon the fact that the dollar primarily serves as the currency of developing countries, as they predominantly accumulate it. However, the sheer number of these states renders the probability of diversifying risks through potential alliances in the monetary-financial sphere against the dollar practically negligible, with rare exceptions such as the BRICS countries.

Language and literature in the information economy: the state of English, English and the state

The impact of colonialism and empire and then of transport, logistics, advertising, media, cinema, radio, tourism, and the internet extended the global reach of English. With 1.13 billion speakers, one in seven in the world now has some English competence. Within this global circulation of English, we have the global teaching of English language and literature, most recently captured for Britain in a June 2023 British Academy report, the relevant findings of which are the decline in the information age and under neoliberal governments of university students reading English Literature and the rise of Creative Writing and world literatures in translation. I distinguish global from world Englishes as the hegemonic language of global trade and finance from more bottom-up Englishes mixed with other languages on the streets; discuss the state of English studies globally; and propose decolonising and denationalising the curriculum. The notion of national languages, identifying a language with national unity, is a very modern idea, only about three centuries old and arising with the formation of modern nation-states. We might use the lived histories of global and world Englishes to transcend both romantic revolutionary and far-right exclusionary nationalisms in literary and language studies in favour of more cosmopolitan, multilingual, and convivial approaches.

The banking system of Ukraine as a factor of social stability in the war

Before the collapse of the USSR, Ukraine was one of the 15 socialist republics. Along with Belarus, the Russian Federation, and the USSR, Ukraine is one of the founders of the United Nations. Ukraine has gone through transformations from a command-administrative to a market system in 30 years. The driving force behind this development was the national democratic forces, the leaders of which were former dissidents of the USSR. One of the main factors of market transformations in Ukraine is the national private banking business. In the conditions of Russia’s direct military aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the banking business of Ukraine has shown its institutional capacity and is one of the stabilizing factors of society. Thanks to the integration of Ukraine’s banking business into the global financial system, millions of Ukrainian refugees have the opportunity to use their accumulated funds in the national currency abroad. The purpose of this article is to analyze the impact of the banking sector of Ukraine on the country’s democratic development, and the contribution of the banking system to countering Russian aggression. The article considers further ways of development of the banking system of Ukraine in the post-war period.

The Relationship Between Economic Development, Banking Sector Performance and Financial Globalization: Evidence from OECD Countries

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the economic development of the 11 OECD countries selected in the period 1990-2018, banking sector performance and financial globalization by integrating investments and trade openness as explanatory variables. The cointegration between variables is investigated by Pedroni, Kao and Westerlund tests and the long-term coefficients are determined by Driscoll-Kraay standard errors forecasters. Finally, the causality relationship between variables is tested in the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel bootstrap approach. Empirical findings indicate the existence of cointegration between variables. The banking sector performance, financial globalization and investments have a statistically significant positive effect on economic development, while the trade openness has a meaninglessly positive effect. They also indicate a two-way causality between the economic development and banking sector performance and investments, and a one-way causality running from trade openness to economic development. Therefore, the findings make political recommendations for both policymakers and future studies.