Global Export Research Articles

Lesotho Tourists’ Perspectives Towards the Delivery of Private Service Providers

Tourism is globally rated among the fastest-growing industries contributing considerably to the global Gross Domestic Product, job creation, investment, and export revenue. Meeting the demands of the tourism clientele is an essential component to yield these desired economic benefits. However, African countries such as Lesotho are missing out on the tourism economic benefits as evidenced by the rankings provided by the Travel and Tourism Competitive Index reports since 2007. This research therefore examines the perspectives of tourists towards the services offered by the private service providers in Lesotho with the aim of identifying weaknesses prohibiting Lesotho to be a competitive tourist destination. Qualitative research approach was adopted to guide this study where in-depth interviews were conducted with both international and domestic tourists. A constant comparative method of data analysis was utilised to analyse the collected primary data. The findings of the study indicated that tourists are dissatisfied with car/taxi hire, accommodation, restaurants, retail shops, and bus transport service quality. The study provided some strategies to improve service offered by the sectors under investigation.

Explicit silicate cycling in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemistry Model version 3 (KMBM3) embedded in the UVic ESCM version 2.9

Abstract. We describe and test a new model of biological marine silicate cycling, implemented in the Kiel Marine Biogeochemical Model version 3 (KMBM3), embedded in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) version 2.9. This new model adds diatoms, which are a key component of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. This new model combines previously published parameterizations of a diatom functional type, opal production and export with a novel, temperature-dependent dissolution scheme. Modelled steady-state biogeochemical rates, carbon and nutrient distributions are similar to those found in previous model versions. The new model performs well against independent ocean biogeochemical indicators and captures the large-scale features of the marine silica cycle to a degree comparable to similar Earth system models. Furthermore, it is computationally efficient, allowing both fully coupled, long-timescale transient simulations and “offline” transport matrix spinups. We assess the fully coupled model against modern ocean observations, the historical record starting from 1960 and a business-as-usual atmospheric CO2 forcing to the year 2300. The model simulates a global decline in net primary production (NPP) of 1.4 % having occurred since the 1960s, with the strongest declines in the tropics, northern midlatitudes and Southern Ocean. The simulated global decline in NPP reverses after the year 2100 (forced by the extended RCP8.5 CO2 concentration scenario), and NPP returns to 98 % of the pre-industrial rate by 2300. This recovery is dominated by increasing primary production in the Southern Ocean, mostly by calcifying phytoplankton. Large increases in calcifying phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean offset a decline in the low latitudes, producing a global net calcite export in 2300 that varies only slightly from pre-industrial rates. Diatom distribution moves southward in our simulations, following the receding Antarctic ice front, but diatoms are outcompeted by calcifiers across most of their pre-industrial Southern Ocean habitat. Global opal export production thus drops to 75 % of its pre-industrial value by 2300. Model nutrients such as phosphate, silicate and nitrate build up along the Southern Ocean particle export pathway, but dissolved iron (for which ocean sources are held constant) increases in the upper ocean. This different behaviour of iron is attributed to a reduction of low-latitude NPP (and consequently, a reduction in both uptake and export and particle, including calcite scavenging), an increase in seawater temperatures (raising the solubility of particulate iron) and stratification that “traps” the iron near the surface. These results are meant to serve as a baseline for sensitivity assessments to be undertaken with this model in the future.

The typology of entrepreneurial exporters: has it all been said? An empirical approach using latent class segmentations

The main aim of this work is to close the research gap that is the lack of a dominant typology of exporting firms in the area of international entrepreneurship (IE). It combines the principles of gradual or stage approaches, scale and scope, with those associated with international entrepreneurial behaviours: time to internationalisation and speed. Latent class segmentation is achieved using a sample of 136 Spanish exporting firms to uncover the nature and characteristics of the different exporters. The results enable us to identify four groups of exporters: true-born global exporters, early international and market concentration exporters, traditional exporters, and true born-again globals. The differences between these four groups are the earliness of their internationalisation, their pace of international expansion, their development of strategies for diversification or market concentration, and their level of international propensity. The results produce both academic and managerial contributions to the field of export activities.

Carbon Emissions and Brazilian Ethanol Prices: Are They Correlated? An Econophysics Study

Brazil is one of the largest global producers and exporters of ethanol and in 2017 launched RenovaBio, a programme aiming to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In parallel to this domestic scenario, there is rapid growth in the world market of carbon production, as well as complex price relations between fossil and renewable energies becoming increasingly important in recent years. The present work aims to contribute to filling a gap in knowledge about the relationship between Brazilian ethanol and other relevant energy-related commodities. We use a recent methodology (Detrended Cross-Correlation Approach—DCCA—with sliding windows) to analyze dynamically the cross-correlation levels between Brazilian ethanol prices and carbon emissions, as well as other possible-related prices, namely: sugar, Brent oil, and natural gas prices, with a sample of daily prices between January 2010 and July 2020. Our results indicate that (i) in the whole period, Brazilian ethanol has significant correlations with sugar, moderate correlation with oil in the short term, and only a weak, short-term correlation with carbon emission prices; (ii) with a sliding windows approach, the strength of the correlation between ethanol and carbon emissions varies between weak and non-significant in the short term.

An empirical analysis of African trade blocs effects on the global economy: new evidence from the gravity model

This study employs the gravity model to estimate the extent of the contribution of six African trade blocs to the global economy using the gravity model spanning from 1980 to 2018. The gravity equation that models the export contributions of the six selected African RECs to the global export is estimated. The estimated gravity model reveals that the long run estimations show that the coefficient estimate for SACU and ECCAS are insignificant in the long run while SACU, EAC and ECCAS as RECs, have insignificant contribution to export in the short run. Our findings, after establishing cointegration, on the other hand show that COMESA has the highest contribution to the global exports, followed by EAC, ECOWAS and SADC with ECCAS and SACU the lowest contributors. The highest contribution of COMESA followed by EAC may be due to the growing economy of member countries like Kenya and Rwanda, while that of COMESA and SADC may be as a result of the large economy of Nigeria and South Africa respectively. This study concludes that African countries are emerging with great export potentials, therefore, governments and private sectors should create the necessary incentives and export policies for the realization of these potentials to maximise the global value chain.

EU cross-border carbon tax: hedging risks

The subject of the analysis is the EU initiative to introduce the so-called Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism developed within the framework of the “European Green Deal” adopted in 2019 and its possible impact on the Russian iron & steel industry. The author draws a parallel between the Border Carbon Correction Mechanism and the early EU initiatives on carbon taxation of flights of foreign airlines operating in airports of EU countries. Recommendations are given to Russian metallurgical companies on possible measures to hedge risks associated with this EU initiative, including interaction with federal agencies to develop counteraction measures, as well as non-corporate measures of technological modernization using low-carbon solutions and compensation of corporate emissions based on ecosystem emission absorption projects. The possibility of blocking the EU initiative in the international arena, including the positions of the leading world powers on this issue, is analyzed. The tactics of interaction on this issue with such large global exporters of iron & steel products as China, India, Brazil and others are proposed.

Analysis of banana and cocoa export commodities in food system transformation, with special reference to certification schemes as drivers of change

Food systems analysis is increasingly being applied to understand relations between production, distribution, and consumption of food products, the drivers that influence the system, and the outcomes that show how well the food system performs on health and nutrition, on environmental sustainability, and on income and inclusiveness. Little attention has gone to the position of global export commodities, where production and consumption are far apart. Banana in Costa Rica and cocoa in Cote d’Ivoire were the subject of this study to find out what major drivers determine the functioning of these systems. Next to identifying drivers such as population growth and increased plant disease pressure, it was found that the typical far-away setting and different living conditions between producer and consumer countries required a special eye on governance as a tripartite arena (government, private sector, civil society) with their power relations, and on certification schemes as a driver that follows from corporate social responsibility. The certification schemes addressed cover all food system outcomes, although health and nutrition in a less conspicuous way. The descriptions of the functioning of the schemes were also linked to living wages and incomes for banana plantation workers in Costa Rica and cocoa smallholder farmers in Côte d’Ivoire. Although very meaningful, certification schemes so far do not prove to be a silver bullet, but they do have the potential, in combination with other measures, to help positive food system transformations.

Implementation of the Paris Agreement on Global Climate: European Carbon Blackmail of Russia and Possibilities of Countering It

The subject of the analysis is the EU initiative to introduce the so-called Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism developed within the framework of the «European Green Deal» adopted in 2019 and its possible impact on the Russian exporting industries. The author examines in detail the genesis of European initiatives in the field of border carbon tax, draws a parallel between the Border Carbon Correction Mechanism and the early EU initiatives on carbon taxation of flights of foreign airlines operating in airports of EU countries. Recommendations are given on possible measures to hedge risks associated with this EU initiative, including the possibility of blocking the EU initiative in the international arena, including the positions of the leading world powers on this issue, is analyzed. The tactics of interaction on this issue with such large global exporters as China, India, Brazil and others are proposed.

Biogeochemical and Hydrological Drivers of Heterogeneous Nutrient Exports From Subterranean Estuaries

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) to coastal zones contributes terrestrial freshwater and nutrients that may support harmful algal blooms (HABs). The magnitude of nutrient exports via SGD depends on volumes of fresh groundwater discharge, its chemical composition, and modifications by biogeochemical processing within subterranean estuaries. Thus, the ability to upscale SGD exports requires knowing the range of chemical composition of inland groundwater and how those compositions may be transformed as fresh and saltwater mix within subterranean estuaries. These processes may create heterogeneous magnitudes of solute exports, even at small spatial scales, and such heterogeneities have rarely been assessed for regional or global SGD nutrient export estimates. To evaluate heterogeneity in subterranean estuary processes and nutrient export, we collected seasonal pore water samples in 2015–2016 at three proximal (<20 km) subterranean estuary sites in Indian River Lagoon, FL. Sites have homogenous hydrogeological settings, but differ in land use and coastal features, and include a mangrove site, an urban site, and a site offshore of a natural wetland. All sites exhibit little variation through time in nutrient concentrations and modeled SGD rates. In contrast, each site exhibits significantly different nutrient concentrations of potential fresh groundwater sources, fresh groundwater discharge volumes, and nutrient transformations within subterranean estuaries. Groundwater specific discharge correlates with nutrient concentrations, suggesting that higher residence times in the subterranean estuary increase biogeochemical transformations that reduce anthropogenic nutrient loads but increase in situ nutrient sources derived from organic matter remineralization. The differences in transformations lead to SGD nutrient contributions that differ by orders of magnitude between sites and have N:P ratios that are greater than the Redfield ratio (15) for the mangrove (29) and urban sites (28), but less than the Redfield ratio for the wetland site (8). These results indicate that heterogeneity of both absolute and relative nutrient export via SGD complicates integration of nutrient fluxes across regional coastal zones and evaluations of its impacts to coastal ecosystems. A better understanding of the drivers of heterogeneity, including subterranean estuary processes, land use, coastal topography, and vegetation dynamics could improve assessments of regional nutrient loading and upscaling for estimates of global solute cycles.

Molecular Advances in Larval Fruit Moth Identification to Facilitate Fruit Export From Western United States Under Systems Approaches

AbstractMolecular advances facilitate fruit export by improving rapid pest diagnosis by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and advanced sequencing technology. Improved pest detection provides timely certification of the quarantine pest-free status in the commodity being exported, avoiding unnecessary commodity treatment. The U.S.–Japan Systems Approach to export fresh cherries from the Western United States that targets the codling moth, Cydia pomonella (Linnaeus) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is used as an example. Suspect codling moth larvae interdicted at cherry packing houses are distinguished by PCR from other internal fruit moth larvae such as the oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae); lesser appleworm, G. prunivora (Walsh) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae); cherry fruitworm, G. packardi (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae); and filbertworm, Cydia latiferreana (Walsingham) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Identification is confirmed by sequencing the amplicon of a 301 bp region of the COI gene produced by PCR of the DNA from a suspect moth and comparing this sequence of COI gene sequences of other internal fruit feeders of pome fruit. This sequence comparison results in unambiguous pest identification. These findings are discussed in the context of systems approach research to meet evolving needs of phytosanitary requirements for global export of fruits.

Analysis of global economic policy uncertainty and export flows for emerging markets with panel VAR modeling

PurposeThe purpose of this paper to examine how global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) affects export flows of emerging market economies.Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the effect of GEPU on 28 emerging markets' export performance. GEPU variable used in the authors’ empirical analysis is measured by partial least square (PLS) factor loading model with the help of 24 countries' economic policy uncertainty index. A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed for the estimations and monthly data over the 2006:01–2019:12 period are used.FindingsThe empirical findings show that while the real external income is the main factor that affects export flows, the real exchange rate is the least effective variable with regard to the variance decomposition, which is not expected by the related economic theory. Panel VAR estimations results confirm the previous studies and find that GEPU affects export flows negatively and significantly.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the sole study in terms of focusing on the impacts of GEPU on the export volume of emerging markets. The contribution of this paper is twofold. Firstly, a large set of countries with monthly frequented data that assist to capture uncertainties better is used. Secondly, the global economic policy index is obtained by employing the PLS method, which provides more robust results that are calculated with respect to the dependent variable.

Modeling the Price Volatility of Cassava Chips in Thailand: Evidence from Bayesian GARCH-X Estimates

Thailand is a significant global exporter of cassava, of which cassava chips are the main export products. Moreover, China was the most important export market for Thailand from 2000 to 2020. However, during that period, Thailand confronted fluctuations in the cassava product price, and cassava chips were a product with significant price volatility, adapting to changes in export volumes. This study aims to analyze the volatility of the price of cassava chips in Thailand from 2010 to 2020. The data were collected monthly from 2010 to 2020, including the price of cassava chips in Thailand (Y), the volume of cassava China imported from Thailand (X1), the price of the cassava chips that China imported from Thailand (X2), the price of the cassava starch that China imported from Thailand (X3), the substitute crop price for maize (X4), the substitute crop price for wheat (X5), and Thailand’s cassava product export volume (X6). The volatility and the factors affecting the volatility in the price of cassava chips were calculated using Bayesian GARCH-X. The results indicate that the increase in X1, X2, X3, X4, and X6 led to an increase in the rate of change in cassava chip price volatility. On the other hand, if the substitute crop price for wheat (X5) increases, then the rate of change in the volatility of the cassava chip price decreases. Therefore, the government’s formulation of an appropriate cassava policy should take volatility and the factors affecting price volatility into account. Additionally, the government’s formulation of agricultural policy needs to consider Thailand’s macro-environmental factors and its key trading partners, especially when these environmental factors signal changes in the price volatility of cassava.

Estimation of Indonesia Wooden Furniture Export Demand Function

The export value of Indonesia’s wooden furniture was sharply decreased by about 31.9% over the period in 2007-2018. On the other hand, global wooden furniture export was increased by 5.8% during the same period. Understanding the behavior of the demand side of Indonesia’s wooden furniture exports that is reflected by its relative price and income elasticities is needed for the policy development of Indonesia’s wooden furniture industry in the future. The objective of this study was to estimate the export demand function of Indonesia wooden furniture using a panel data regression model. Three types of panel data models, such as pooled ordinary least squares model, fixed-effects model, and random effects model, were investigated. The results showed that the export demand function of Indonesia wooden furniture could be well estimated using the fixed effects model. Relative price elasticity and income elasticity were -0.45 and 0.8, respectively. The adjusted R2 value obtained was 0.99. Keywords: export demand function, panel data regression, wooden furniture

Global agricultural trade impact of the 2011 triple disaster in Japan: A gravity approach*

We examine the evolution of global agricultural trade flows in the light of the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident in Fukushima, Japan. After the 2011 disasters, safety concerns led to the implementation of international surveillance measures on agricultural products from Japan. The physical damages, the domestic and foreign restrictions to production and trade, combined with actual and perceived health risks, affected consumer behaviour and reshaped production, consumption and trade. The existing literature has thoroughly examined individual sectoral effects, mainly through stylised facts and mainly for Japan; however, there is no analysis to date on the effects of the triple disaster on global trade flows of agriculture. With Japan holding 4.1 per cent of global exports of agricultural products and 0.4 per cent of global imports, transmission of the effects to global markets could lead to disruptions in global supply chains, worldwide distribution and trade. We use a gravity approach, together with 2000–2018 panel data and a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator to discuss the impact of the disasters on global trade flows of agriculture. Results for Japan indicate a negative effect on both exports and imports extending until 2014. Counterfactual analysis results suggest transmission of the negative effects to global exports of agricultural products.

Dual-Use Regulation 2021/821: What’s Old & What’s New in EU Export Control

Regulation 2021/821 of 20 May 2021, which sets up a European Union (EU) regime for the control of exports, brokering, technical assistance, transit, and transfer of dual-use items, enters into force on 9 September 2021. While the main features of the EU’s dual-use regime remain the same, Regulation 2021/821 introduces some novelties. Export control is extended to technical assistance. Member States are granted more options to use local controls applicable to non-listed items, particularly in the case of cyber-surveillance items being used for repression or serious human rights violations, and generally in the case of a Member State creating national controls. In addition to the new authorization for large projects, two new EU authorizations are created: the intra-group software authorization (EU007) and the encryption authorization (EU008). The role of an internal compliance program (ICP), now clearly defined, is strengthened: an ICP is a legal necessity for holders of general global export authorizations and for applicants of the intra-group export of software and technology authorization. Finally, administrative provisions are added to improve cooperation between customs authorities and dual-use authorities at the national level, as well as to improve the exchange of information among the Member States, including with regard to the coordination of enforcement, at EU level. Dual-Use, EU Export Control, Regulation 428/2009, Regulation 2021/821

Contagion-induced risk: An application to the global export network

In many systems, the state of each of their components can itself be a source of risk affecting the other components, and it is not easy to aggregate these individual values together with the interconnecting structural elements of the network. There are simulation models in the literature that establish propagation curves for the population as a whole, especially in the epidemiological case, but these models do not provide a clear analytical expression of the risk borne by each of the network nodes. Moreover, classical models, such as the generalized cascade model, are not necessarily convergent. Neither can the individual values of each node be aggregated on the same scale as they were measured. This paper proposes a mathematical model that makes it possible to analyze the propagation of risk in the face of a given adverse event that may reach all the elements of a network and precisely calculate the risk borne by each node according to its own vulnerability and the relationships with the other nodes, which may be more or less vulnerable and constitute additional sources of risk. It is shown that the new model ensures convergence and that the aggregated results can be interpreted in terms of the risk measurement scale previously given for each node. In addition, the global import–export network is used to illustrate how political or economic instability in one state can generate crises in other states.

Spatial Price Transmission and Price Dynamics of Global Butter Export Market under Economic Shocks

Recently, the world has experienced striking economic and policy changes, and subsequent uncertainties have impacts on dairy trade price fluctuations. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) methodology was established in this paper to better understand international butter export prices transmission, the feedback between the economic context changes and price fluctuations, and the link between the global butter market, energy market, and other commodity markets. We assessed which key factors are typically associated with butter export price movements with regards to shocks to crude oil price, palm oil price, farm-gate raw milk price, exchange rates, and consumer price index (CPI) for food of the EU, New Zealand, the U.S., and the rest of world (RoW), respectively. Using generalized impulse response functions, this study found that decreases in farm-gate raw milk price could be swiftly transmitted to butter export prices of not only a home country but other foreign countries. However, palm oil price and crude oil price merely affects global butter export prices. We also found that U.S. dollar depreciations against the Euro will cause a decline in U.S. butter export price. It is concluded that butter export markets are not well-integrated, yet butter export prices of New Zealand and the U.S. are highly linked.

Trend in Area, Production and Productivity of Pigeon Pea in Myanmar

Background: Pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan) is the third most important pulse crop of Myanmar. The country is the biggest exporter of pigeon pea accounting for nearly (90%) of the total global export volumes. This study evaluates trends in the area, production and productivity of pigeon pea in Myanmar. Methods: The study is based on 10 years (2008 to 2017) secondary data obtained from the Myanmar MOALI and FAOSTAT. CAGR and multiple regression were adopted as the study methods. Result: Results indicated that due to an increase in harvesting area and productivity, pigeon pea production increased from 7,65,000 MT in 2008 to 7,98,689 MT in 2017. However, CAGR indicated a nonsignificant decrease.

Forecasting cotton lint exports in Nigeria using the autoregressive integrated moving average model

Nigeria was a major global exporter of cotton lint to international market during the colonial and post-colonial era till late 70s when the country fully embraced oil exports to the detriment of the non-oil sector, cotton lint exports inclusive. However, Nigeria is gradually emphasizing agricultural exports again to earn huge foreign exchange, the oil sector having left the country in economic crises. This study utilized time series model particularly, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to make forecasting of cotton lint exports in Nigeria by using 46 yearly observations (1970-2015). The model went through series of investigative and diagnostic tests in order to observe the usefulness of the model. The fitting of the selected ARIMA (2,1,2) model to the time series data, means fitting ARIMA (2,1,2) model of one first order difference. Smaller RMSE, MAE as well as Theil Inequality coefficient are actually preferred and justified that ARIMA (2,1,2) model was justified as adequate for the forecasting of cotton lint exports in Nigeria with AIC value of 20.96771, SIC value of 21.04881, MAPE value of 6751.231, RMSE of 93303.67 and R2 of 0.330951. A thirty-year period ahead of cotton lint exports is predicted. The observations signify a rising trend in exports hence; it will be available especially in the future for foreign trade in the next thirty years. The outcome from the study is valuable for trade organisations and investors in assessing the precariousness of the market structure.

Disproportionality of Ukraine's Participation in International Business: Rethinking under Conditions of the New Stage of Global Development

The article is devoted to identifying the peculiarities of Ukraine's participation in international business and determining the prospects of strengthening the country's position under conditions of the new stage of global development. It is established that Ukraine's international trade activity's dynamics and trends coincide with world trade trends. However, its share in global exports remains negligible (less than 0.25%). On the world market, the country is traditionally positioned as resource-oriented, steadily increasing the volume of resources exports, including agricultural products. Instead, the dynamics of the Ukrainian economy transnationalization is low and does not coincide with the high rate of this process development at the world and developed countries level. Transnational companies also perceive Ukraine as a country with a strong resource base and a large internal market. The scientific novelty of the study is the identification of the level of Ukraine's integration into the system of international economic relations and argumentation of the reasons and results of disproportional participation of the country in international business at all stages of its development.