Global Equilibrium Research Articles

Gains associated with linking the EU and Chinese ETS under different assumptions on restrictions, allowance endowments, and international trade

Linking the EU and Chinese Emission Trading Systems (ETS) increases the cost-efficiency of reaching greenhouse gas mitigation targets, but both partners will benefit – if at all – to different degrees. Using the global computable-general equilibrium (CGE) model DART Kiel, we evaluate the effects of linking ETS in combination with 1) restricted allowances trading, 2) adjusted allowance endowments to compensate China, and 3) altered Armington elasticities when Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets are met. We find that generally, both partners benefit from linking their respective trading systems. Yet, while the EU prefers full linking, China favors restricted allowance trading. Adjusted allowance endowments which shift reduction obligations to the EU cannot sufficiently compensate China so as to make full linking as attractive as restricted trading. Gains associated with linking increase with higher Armington elasticities for China, but decrease for the EU. Overall, the EU and China favor different options for linking ETS. Moreover, heterogeneous impacts across EU countries could cause dissent among EU regions, potentially increasing the difficulty of finding a linking solution favorable for all trading partners.

How political conflicts threaten energy security and economic growth in Asia: A study on the sanctions imposed on Iran

Given their high dependence on energy imports, Asian countries’ energy security is challenged by international political conflicts that interfere with the global energy supply. This study examines the impacts of the sanctions imposed on Iran on the energy security and economic growth of oil-importing Asian countries. A global computable equilibrium model is applied, and three illustrative scenarios are developed to simulate a full embargo on Iran's oil exports, the utilization of spare oil production capacity of other Persian Gulf countries, and a reduction of their oil exports. The impacts of a full embargo are not disastrous if oil exports from other Persian Gulf petrostates are secured. The utilization of spare oil production capacity could largely buffer the impacts on Asian countries’ oil prices than oil supply. Under a pessimistic scenario, the oil supply of Asian countries would be disastrously disturbed. Moreover, political conflicts would force Asian countries to struggle for oil import sources, straining their relations and causing intense international competition.

Winners and losers in global supply chain trade: Embedding GSC in CGE

A major question in contemporary economic discussions is who wins and who loses from global supply chain (GSC) trade. In seeking an answer to this question, policy makers are not well-served by existing economic models. GSC models lack adequate representation of labour markets and other aspects of the economy outside the GSC sector. Global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have an economy-wide perspective but lack essential GSC features. We integrate GSC with CGE. Results from the integrated model can differ sharply from standalone results. A stylized application of the integrated model shows that GSC trade can accelerate the transfer of labour in developing countries out of low-marginal-productivity agriculture into higher-marginal-productivity manufacturing. At the same time, GSC trade can leave high-income countries with a difficult structural-adjustment problem and little if any long-run gain.

The AfCFTA impact on agricultural and food trade: a value added perspective

AbstractThe African Continental Free Trade Area agreement will create the largest single market in the world in terms of the number of countries and people. We analyse the effects of regional trade liberalisation on production fragmentation and networks using a global computable general equilibrium model adapted to take into account the value-added structure of international trade. This permits the analysis of the impact of trade policies in the presence of global upstream and downstream linkages through a counterfactual analysis. The analysis goes beyond previous studies by focusing on member countries’ agricultural and food integration in regional and global value chains through backward and forward linkages. Our simulation results suggest that the agreement could have a significant impact on trade patterns in terms of value-added structure and extra- or intra-regional destinations. The reduction in trade costs within the region has a higher incidence on agriculture and food backward intra-regional integration than on forward participation, but this pattern varies substantially across countries. We find that the continental agreement translates in more widely spread benefits across sectors if we consider the income generated within each sector (value added) rather than simply accounting for gross exports.

Forcing Convection to Aggregate Using Diabatic Heating Perturbations.

Tropical deep convection can aggregate into large clusters, which can have impacts on the local humidity and precipitation. Sea surface temperature (SST) gradients have been shown to organize convection, yet there has been little work done to investigate the impact of diabatic heating perturbations in the atmosphere on the aggregation of convection. Here we investigate how anomalous diabatic heating of the atmospheric column, through an idealized aerosol plume, affects the existence and mechanisms of convective aggregation in non‐rotating, global radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations. We show that the aerosol forcing has the ability to increase the degree of aggregation, especially at lower SSTs. Detailed investigation shows that the diabatic heating source incites a thermally driven circulation, forced by the shortwave perturbation. The increase in aggregation is caused in part by this circulation, and in part by the longwave heating anomalies occurring due to the surface convergence of moisture and convection. At higher SSTs, longwave feedbacks are crucial for the aggregation of convection, even with the shortwave heating perturbation. At lower SSTs, convection is able to aggregate with the shortwave perturbation in the absence of longwave feedbacks. These perturbations provide a link to studying the effects of absorbing aerosol plumes on convection, for example during the Indian monsoon season. We argue that, as there is aggregation for plumes with realistic aerosol absorption optical depths, this could be an analogue for real‐world organization in regions with high pollution.

Global Stabilization of a Single-Species Ecosystem with Markovian Jumping under Neumann Boundary Value via Laplacian Semigroup

By applying impulsive control, this work investigated the global stabilization of a single-species ecosystem with Markovian jumping, a time delay and a Neumann boundary condition. Variational methods, a fixed-point theorem, and Laplacian semigroup theory were employed to derive the unique existence of the global stable equilibrium point, which is a positive number. Numerical examples illuminate the feasibility of the proposed methods.

Exact equilibrium distributions in statistical quantum field theory with rotation and acceleration: Dirac field

We derive the general exact forms of the Wigner function, of mean values of conserved currents, of the spin density matrix, of the spin polarization vector and of the distribution function of massless particles for the free Dirac field at global thermodynamic equilibrium with rotation and acceleration, extending our previous results obtained for the scalar field. The solutions are obtained by means of an iterative method and analytic continuation, which lead to formal series in thermal vorticity. In order to obtain finite values, we extend to the fermionic case the method of analytic distillation introduced for bosonic series. The obtained mean values of the stress-energy tensor, vector and axial currents for the massless Dirac field are in agreement with known analytic results in the special cases of pure acceleration and pure rotation. By using this approach, we obtain new expressions of the currents for the more general case of combined rotation and acceleration and, in the pure acceleration case, we demonstrate that they must vanish at the Unruh temperature.

National and Sectoral Effects of a Decline in the Desirability of Investing in Australia

AbstractAustralia has a long‐standing dependence on foreign investment to make up the difference between domestic saving and investment opportunities. There is, nevertheless, an ongoing debate about the merits or otherwise of inward foreign investment. There has also been a recent tightening of criteria governing foreign investment. The OECD assesses Australia's foreign direct investment regime to be one of the most restrictive in the OECD area, while broader discussions have considered the potential for a decline in Australia's credit rating. This paper uses a dynamic global general equilibrium model—GDyn‐FS—to report on the national and sectoral effects of a decline in the desirability of investing in Australia, relative to other countries.

Combining economic recovery with climate change mitigation: A global evaluation of financial instruments

Although some countries are gradually returning to production and life, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the world, further motivating recovery policies. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study evaluates the environmental and economic impacts of COVID-19 on the world, both today and in the longer term. This study explores the post-pandemic impacts conditional on varied fiscal policies (including forgone revenue and additional spending) and their combination with a carbon tax. This study finds that the pandemic shocks in 2020 slowed regional economies worldwide, and a continued pandemic in 2021 will further stymie economic activity. Among the government’s recovery policies, indirect tax reduction has the best positive stimulus to regional economies; however, it is not conducive to low-carbon energy development and will also lead to an increase in CO2 and pollutant emissions. A post-pandemic green recovery plan could prioritize replacing indirect production taxes with taxes on GHG emissions, which would both improve economic turnover metrics and reduce environmental emissions in 2021. In the long run, this tax shift will not only minimize the economic damage to the global economy but also help governments around the world to get back on track in meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Structure-based virtual screening, in silico docking, ADME properties prediction and molecular dynamics studies for the identification of potential inhibitors against SARS-CoV-2 Mpro.

COVID-19 is a viral pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. Due to its highly contagious nature, millions of people are getting affected worldwide knocking down the delicate global socio-economic equilibrium. According to the World Health Organization, COVID-19 has affected over 186 million people with a mortality of around 4 million as of July 09, 2021. Currently, there are few therapeutic options available for COVID-19 control. The rapid mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome and development of new virulent strains with increased infection and mortality among COVID-19 patients, there is a great need to discover more potential drugs for SARS-CoV-2 on a priority basis. One of the key viral enzymes responsible for the replication and maturation of SARS-CoV-2 is Mpro protein. In the current study, structure-based virtual screening was used to identify four potential ligands against SARS-CoV-2 Mpro from a set of 8,722 ASINEX library compounds. These four compounds were evaluated using ADME filter to check their ADME profile and druggability, and all the four compounds were found to be within the current pharmacological acceptable range. They were individually docked to SARS-CoV-2 Mpro protein to assess their molecular interactions. Further, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations was carried out on protein–ligand complex using Desmond at 100 ns to explore their binding conformational stability. Based on RMSD, RMSF and hydrogen bond interactions, it was found that the stability of protein–ligand complex was maintained throughout the entire 100 ns simulations for all the four compounds. Some of the key ligand amino acid residues participated in stabilizing the protein–ligand interactions includes GLN 189, SER 10, GLU 166, ASN 142 with PHE 66 and TRP 132 of SARS-CoV-2 Mpro. Further optimization of these compounds could lead to promising drug candidates for SARS-CoV-2 Mpro target.

Equilibrium Spin Distribution From Detailed Balance

As the core ingredient for spin polarization, the equilibrium spin distribution function that eliminates the collision terms is derived from the detailed balance principle. The kinetic theory for interacting fermionic systems is applied to the Nambu–Jona-Lasinio model at quark level. Under the semi-classical expansion with respect to hbar , the kinetic equations for the vector and axial-vector distribution functions are obtained with collision terms. For an initially unpolarized system, spin polarization can be generated at the first order of hbar from the coupling between the vector and axial-vector charges. Different from the classical transport theory, the collision terms in a quantum theory vanish only in global equilibrium with Killing condition.

Global existence of bounded solutions to the relativistic BGK model

The relativistic BGK model is a representative relaxation-time approximation of the relativistic Boltzmann equation. In this paper, we prove the global existence of bounded solutions to the relativistic BGK model proposed by Anderson and Witting when the initial data satisfies the excess conservations of mass and energy, and the excess entropy inequality from global equilibrium. The L∞ estimate established in Guo (2010) is the main ingredient of the proof.

Exploring linkage opportunities for China's emissions trading system under the Paris targets——EU-China and Japan-Korea-China cases

Linking emissions trading systems (ETSs) in developing and developed countries is expected to serve as an important cooperative approach for achieving the Paris Agreement targets. As one of the first developing countries leveraging ETS to achieve domestic climate targets, China's involvement will significantly impact the market-based cooperation landscape. This study investigates two prospective linkage options for China's ETS, including the linkage with the EU ETS and the linkage with Japan's and Korea's ETSs under three different emission reduction targets, and analyzes the emissions, energy and economic impacts of both full linkage and limited linkage on China and its linkage partners using a global general equilibrium model. We find that full linkage could bring the largest welfare gains for each participant, but it also causes a loss in international competitiveness of China's domestic sectors and impedes the deployment of renewable energy in China's linkage partners. With the strengthening of emission constrains, the adverse impacts of full linkage intensify. If a limit is set on the volume of permits trading, carbon price changes are more moderate in each participant and the adverse impacts on international competitiveness of China and on renewables development of its linkage partners are lessened, at the expense of reduced welfare gains. Therefore, national policy-makers have to strike a balance between welfare gains and other policy objectives when considering linking their emissions trading systems. A limited linkage is more politically feasible and can be established initially and the restrictions on partner's permits may be loosened over time as the balance between different policy objectives is achieved.

Distributional impacts of carbon pricing policies under the Paris Agreement: Inter and intra-regional perspectives

In this paper, we analyze the poverty and distributional impacts of different carbon pricing mechanisms consistent with reaching the Paris Agreement targets. We link a global recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model ENVISAGE with the GIDD microsimulation model and explore three levels of mitigation effort and five carbon pricing options (trade coalitions). Results suggest that while there is a higher incidence of poverty in all scenarios, mainly driven by lower economic growth, Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) policies result in a progressive income distribution at the global level. Such progressivity is caused not only by lower relative prices of food versus non-food commodities, but also by a general decline in the skill wage premia.Achievement of the NDC targets without regional cooperation results in 0.45% increase in the number of people living in extreme poverty (below PPP$1.90/day) by 2030, while a more ambitious 2 °C-consistent target increases this number to 1.25%. Global cooperation significantly eases the burden on poor, reducing the poverty headcount by almost three times in the case of 2 °C-consistent target and bringing it to the baseline scenario level in the case of NDC target. The global Gini coefficient falls between 0.01 and 0.04 percentage points, while reduction in the Theil index is between 0.01 and 0.11 percentage points. Results also indicate that the reductions in inequality come mainly from a reduction in income from top earners, as the results are much more sensitive to the NDC policies closer to the top of the income distribution.

Mathematical Model Applied to Green Building Concept for Sustainable Cities Under Climate Change

Recently the effect of greenhouse gases (GHGs) is worldwide terrified anxiety to the public and scholars. Even this global problem is one of the great issues that continuously makes worrying the governments and environmentalists, but its solution findings are not out of the image at all. In this study, we have proposed and analysed a mathematical model for the solvable management of GHGs by sowing the seeds of green building dynamic systems. Moreover, in the model, the human community is used to enhance the production power of individuals of green buildings by absorbing the GHGs. The model is analysed by stability analysis at the equilibrium points: trivial and global equilibrium, and also by convincing the stability and instability of the system of equations. The behaviour of the propound model has been developed by numerical simulations which shows the rate of the fruitfulness of GHG components.

The increasing global environmental consequences of a weakening US-China crop trade relationship.

The consideration of tariffs on China's imports of US agricultural products has focused on economic impacts, while the environmental consequences have received less attention. Here we use a global computable general equilibrium model to evaluate long-term crop portfolio changes induced by China's retaliatory agricultural tariffs and thereby assess the environmental stresses imposed by different crop production portfolios based on region-specific and crop-specific databases. We show that China's tariffs cause unintended increases in nitrogen and phosphorus pollution and blue water extraction in the United States as farmers shift from soybeans to more pollution-causing crops. If diverted to Brazil, China's soybean demands would reduce Brazilian stresses of nitrogen pollution and water use through crop portfolio changes, but may add additional pressures on phosphorus pollution and deforestation. On a global scale, trade policies could help to reduce nutrient pollution and water source depletion by promoting crop production where it is most efficient in terms of nutrient and water use.

Generating Spin Polarization from Vorticity through Nonlocal Collisions

We derive the collision term in the Boltzmann equation using the equation of motion for the Wigner function of massive spin-1/2 particles. To next-to-lowest order in ℏ, it contains a nonlocal contribution, which is responsible for the conversion of orbital into spin angular momentum. In a proper choice of pseudogauge, the antisymmetric part of the energy-momentum tensor arises solely from this nonlocal contribution. We show that the collision term vanishes in global equilibrium and that the spin potential is, then, equal to the thermal vorticity. In the nonrelativistic limit, the equations of motion for the energy-momentum and spin tensors reduce to the well-known form for hydrodynamics for micropolar fluids.

Heat Transfer and Entanglement–Non‐Equilibrium Correlation Spectra of Two Quantum Oscillators

AbstractThe non‐equilibrium state of two oscillators with a mutual interaction and coupled to separate heat baths is discussed. Bosonic baths are considered, and an exact spectral representation for the elements of the covariance matrix is provided analytically. A wide class of spectral densities for the relevant bath modes is allowed for. The validity of the fluctuation‐dissipation relation is established for global equilibrium (both baths at the same temperature) in the stationary state. Spectral measures of entanglement are suggested by comparing to the equilibrium spectrum of zero‐point fluctuations. No rotating‐wave approximation is applied, and anomalous heat transport from cold to hot bath, as reported in earlier work, is demonstrated not to occur.

Ultimate pullout capacity of single vertical plate anchors in sand

This paper presents a limit equilibrium solution for calculating the ultimate pullout resistance of shallow vertical plate anchors in sand, considering the combined effects of anchor embedment ratio, sand shear strength, sand-anchor interface strength and anchor aspect ratio. The geometry of the failure mechanism in the solution reflects observations from model tests. The ultimate failure load of a strip plate anchor was then determined by global equilibrium analysis of the passive and active failure soil wedge. The two-dimensional limit equilibrium solution is extended for rectangular plate anchors by introducing the shape factors of Ovesen and Strømann. The solution is compared with a database of 102 pullout model tests of vertical plate anchors in sand assembled from the literature and some limit analysis results. The comparison results suggest that the proposed solution can provide a reliable analytical tool for the ultimate pullout capacity prediction of shallow vertical plate anchors buried in sand.

Local Turnpike Analysis Using Local Dissipativity for Discrete Time Discounted Optimal Control

Recent results in the literature have provided connections between the so-called turnpike property, near optimality of closed-loop solutions, and strict dissipativity. Motivated by applications in economics, optimal control problems with discounted stage cost are of great interest. In contrast to non-discounted optimal control problems, it is more likely that several asymptotically stable optimal equilibria coexist. Due to the discounting and transition cost from a local to the global equilibrium, it may be more favourable staying in a local equilibrium than moving to the global—cheaper—equilibrium. In the literature, strict dissipativity was shown to provide criteria for global asymptotic stability of optimal equilibria and turnpike behaviour. In this paper, we propose a local notion of discounted strict dissipativity and a local turnpike property, both depending on the discount factor. Using these concepts, we investigate the local behaviour of (near-)optimal trajectories and develop conditions on the discount factor to ensure convergence to a local asymptotically stable optimal equilibrium.