Global Environmental Change Research Articles

Spatial Analysis of Lung Cancer Patients and Associated Influencing Factors from the Perspective of Urban Sustainable Development: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China

With global environmental changes, lung cancer has become one of the most common types of cancer worldwide, posing a significant public health challenge. Jiangsu Province, located in the eastern part of China, is an economically and socially developed region. According to the latest cancer registration data in Jiangsu Province, lung cancer ranks first in both incidence and mortality of cancer in the province. Thus, studying the spatiotemporal distribution of lung cancer cases and analyzing the influence of various factors on this distribution are crucial for the effective prevention and control of the disease in Jiangsu Province. This study takes the statistical data of lung cancer patients in Jiangsu Province in 2020 as the research object, uses Geographic Information System (GIS) visualization and spatial analysis to study the spatial distribution characteristics of lung cancer patients in Jiangsu Province, and employs the geographical detector to numerically express the impact of various environmental factors on the distribution of lung cancer patients in Jiangsu Province. The results reveal a notable spatial clustering of lung cancer cases, with high-incidence areas concentrated in Suzhou, Nanjing, and Xuzhou cities. Among the seven environmental factors examined, PM2.5, SO2, and PM10 concentration exert the most significant influence. This study employs multifactorial spatial analysis to elucidate the intricate relationships between people’s health and air quality, medical resource distribution, and lung cancer incidence in the process of pursuing sustainable development in cities and provides an important reference for the improvement in lung cancer prevention and control strategies.

Algal Biosensors for Detection of Potentially Toxic Pollutants and Validation by Advanced Methods: A Brief Review

The presence of potentially toxic pollutants, such as pesticides and metal ions, even at low concentrations, can significantly impact aquatic environmental health. This pollution is a globally widespread problem and requires fast and reliable analysis, especially for in-situ identification/quantification. Atomic absorption spectrometry and plasma-based spectrometry techniques have been considered the most analytical tools used to monitor potentially toxic metal ions in aquatic media and other related matrices. The dynamics of global climate change and its correlation with pollution, especially from anthropogenic sources, have encouraged the development of other faster analytical tools for monitoring these pollutants. A noteworthy alternative for determining potentially toxic pollutants is using algae-based biosensors, resulting in a cost reduction and simplification of environmental analysis, enabling a more reliable comprehension of the role of humans in climate change. These biosensors, which may not have the highest sensitivity in quantification, have demonstrated remarkable potential in the identification of potentially toxic pollutants and several field applications. Biosensors can be an excellent biotechnology solution for monitoring global environmental changes. Thus, this review highlights the main advances in developing and comparing algae-based biosensors and other analytical possibilities for the identification of potentially toxic pollutants and their possible applications in environmental analysis.

Tibetan Peat Records Global Major Explosive Volcanic Eruptions in the Holocene

AbstractMajor explosive volcanic eruptions were important triggers of abrupt climate changes during the Holocene and crucial sources of Hg to the atmosphere, yet there remains limited understanding regarding the long‐range transportation of this volcanic Hg and its imprint in natural archives. Here, we present a reconstruction of Holocene global volcanism based on the anomalies in Hg concentrations, accumulation fluxes, and Hg/C ratios in three high‐resolution peat profiles spanning Eurasia. Our reconstruction reveals that the two Tibetan peat profiles recorded 33 major explosive volcanic eruptions (with 11 eruptions being synchronously detected), which correspond with a French Pyrenees peat record and sulfate anomalies in polar ice cores. Additionally, the major explosive volcanic eruptions recorded in the TP peat profiles coincided with abrupt decreases in solar irradiance during the Holocene, suggesting these eruptions might have had a greater global climate impact. Our results suggest the atmospheric transport of volcanic Hg within the Northern Hemisphere and underscore the significant role played by major explosive volcanic eruptions in precipitating abrupt global climate and environmental changes during the Holocene. This study has implications for deciphering the configuration of volcanic eruption seasons, locations, and magnitudes during the Holocene and aligning the chronology of peat deposits with ice cores.

AGROTECH: A Smart Agricultural System Using IOT and ML

Agriculture remains one of the most important sectors that support human survival which supplies basic needs, a source of income for many dependants' community. Despite these advantages, resource scarcity, adverse environmental conditions and pest infestations remain serious threats to crop products. To mitigate these concerns, we present a smart agriculture system which uses the most modern technologies like IoT (Internet of Things) machine learning (ML) and sensors with automation. The system consists of an intelligent irrigation mechanism for efficient utilization of water, an animal detection system used to trace cattle, and a Light Dependent Resistor (LDR) Sensor joined with buzzer for early detection of any global environmental changes. Additionally, the integration of plant disease detection capabilities further enhances the system's effectiveness. By employing various sensors to collect data on environmental factors, including moisture and temperature, the proposed framework enables timely decision-making for crop management. The aim is to provide farmers with actionable insights, ensuring food security while minimizing resource consumption and economic losses. This review paper discusses the potential benefits and implementation strategies of such an intelligent agricultural system, emphasizing the need for innovation in agricultural practices to meet the growing demands of an increasing population

Monitoring materialities: Anthropocene landscapes of environing technologies in the High North

An increased interest in Arctic regions as places of data generation to inform climate models, reports, and policies on environmental change has created a distinct kind of landscape, transformed by the material legacy of short and long-term monitoring and other scientific activities. Drawing from fieldwork in four key areas for environmental monitoring in the High North of Norway, Sweden, and Greenland, we investigate the intentional and unintentional materialities of environing technologies and other anthropogenic impacts that form a particular kind of Anthropocene landscape related to knowing global environmental change. We conclude that such distinctive monitoring landscapes contribute to work investigating shifting conceptualisations of heritage and the emergence of unintentional landscapes in the Anthropocene, and suggest that as co-creators of the global environment, they provide an interesting insight into the material legacies of natural scientific knowledge production.

Species loss and decline in taxonomic diversity of macroalgae in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic sea) over the last six decades

Assessing historical changes in marine biodiversity at regional or local scales is often challenging due to insufficient long-term data for most marine organisms. Yet, these assessments are crucial to understanding potential long-term variation in the species pool in response to complex and interacting local and global environmental changes. Here, we performed a comprehensive review of scientific and grey literature, archival records and floristic data spanning over the last two centuries to reconstruct an updated and revised taxonomic dataset of macroalgae in the Gulf of Trieste (Northern Adriatic Sea), one of the most exposed to human-driven pressures and climatically vulnerable regions in the Mediterranean Sea. The subset of data from 1960 to present, encompassing nearly all available records, was used to assess the contribution of species replacement and gain/loss to temporal β-diversity and to test for changes in the taxonomic distinctness of the species pool over the past six decades.We identified 68 species that have never been recorded again since 1990, indicating their likely local extinction. The major change, however, was due to species replacement and to a reduction in the taxonomic breadth of macroalgal diversity, as highlighted by a significant decrease in the Average Taxonomic Distinctness of the species pool, especially along the Italian coast. The loss of species has mainly affected habitat-formers (e.g., Cystoseira sensu lato) and species with Atlantic/Circumboreal and Mediterranean affinities, which were replaced by turf-formers and species with Pantropical/Cosmopolitan/IndoPacific affinities. While multiple human impacts (e.g., coastal artificialisation, unbalanced N/P ratios) might have contributed to the ongoing change in macroalgal diversity, the observed decline of cold-affinity species in favour of warm-affinity species pointed out a critical role of exacerbating climatic changes. Our study demonstrated that historical reconstructions of species records coupled with effective indicators for the analysis of presence/absence data can help quantify long-term biodiversity changes and provide valuable insights into their possible causes.

Advances in giant clam (Tridacnidae spp.) sclerochronology and sclerochemistry

Understanding past environmental change through high-resolution palaeoenvironmental proxy reconstructions provides crucial baselines for understanding global environmental changes, particularly during the Quaternary Period. Such data are crucial for testing and refining climate models to enable better adaptations to current and future climate changes. Giant clams (Tridacnidae spp.), the largest bivalve mollusc in the Indo-Pacific region, possess distinctive features such as long lifespan, rapid growth, high-resolution growth patterns, wide distribution habitat, and stable shell geochemical composition. These attributes make giant clams a promising and dependable novel palaeoenvironmental archive, offering numerous available geochemical proxies. In this review, we examined preview studies on giant clams conducted for sclerochronology research, spanning publications from 1986 to 2023. The previous studies have proven that isotopic and trace elements proxies of the giant clam, including δ18O, δ13C, Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca, and Fe/Ca, can faithfully reconstruct palaeoclimate records including sea surface temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon, insolation, extreme weather events and primary productivity at ultra-high resolution. These proxies have been successfully employed for palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions from the Miocene to the present across a range of locations from South Japan to Northern Australia to the Red Sea. These studies have illuminated changes in interannual climate cycles, climate variation, and human migrations over thousands to millions of years. They have generated quantitative records that are valuable for testing and refining numerical climate models, understanding the relationship between past climate cycles and future climate variability, and providing insights into human-environment interactions over time. In the end, the review also addresses the challenges and provided recommendations for future research, highlighting persisting gaps in understanding the influence of microstructure on the shell, age dating of fossil samples, uncertainty in proxies, the need for tank experiments, and access to ultra-high resolution palaeoenvironmental records.

Eocene Shark Teeth From Peninsular Antarctica: Windows to Habitat Use and Paleoceanography

AbstractEocene climate cooling, driven by the falling pCO2 and tectonic changes in the Southern Ocean, impacted marine ecosystems. Sharks in high‐latitude oceans, sensitive to these changes, offer insights into both environmental shifts and biological responses, yet few paleoecological studies exist. The Middle‐to‐Late Eocene units on Seymour Island, Antarctica, provide a rich, diverse fossil record, including sharks. We analyzed the oxygen isotope composition of phosphate from shark tooth bioapatite (δ18Op) and compared our results to co‐occurring bivalves and predictions from an isotope‐enabled global climate model to investigate habitat use and environmental conditions. Bulk δ18Op values (mean 22.0 ± 1.3‰) show no significant changes through the Eocene. Furthermore, the variation in bulk δ18Op values often exceeds that in simulated seasonal and regional values. Pelagic and benthic sharks exhibit similar δ18Op values across units but are offset relative to bivalve and modeled values. Some taxa suggest movements into warmer or more brackish waters (e.g., Striatolamia, Carcharias) or deeper, colder waters (e.g., Pristiophorus). Taxa like Raja and Squalus display no shift, tracking local conditions in Seymour Island. The lack of difference in δ18Op values between pelagic and benthic sharks in the Late Eocene could suggest a poorly stratified water column, inconsistent with a fully opened Drake Passage. Our findings demonstrate that shark tooth bioapatite tracks the preferred habitat conditions for individual taxa rather than recording environmental conditions where they are found. A lack of secular variation in δ18Op values says more about species ecology than the absence of regional or global environmental changes.

Influence of water chemistry and contaminant occurrence on the oxidative stress ecology of Cottus gobio in a high-mountain lake (Carnic Alps)

Understanding oxidative stress in high-mountain lake fish offers crucial insights into their health, resilience, and adaptation to extreme environmental changes. This study investigates the oxidative stress response of Cottus gobio in a high-mountain lake (Dimon Lake) located in the northeast Italy during the ice-free season, focusing on the relationship between oxidative stress biomarkers and physicochemical water parameters, as well as persistent and emerging contaminants. Significant seasonal variations were observed in water parameters, with lower oxygen, pH, conductivity, and phosphate levels in summer compared to autumn, while temperature, ammonium, and nitrate were higher in summer. Metal concentrations in C. gobio muscle were higher in autumn, with Zn showing the most significant increase. PAHs, NDL-PCBs, and pesticides were all below the limit of quantification in the fish muscle samples. No microplastics items were found in the gastrointestinal tracts of fish. Oxidative stress biomarkers revealed organ-specific and seasonal variations. The liver exhibited the highest activities of catalase (CAT), glutathione peroxidase (GPx), glutathione S-tranferase (GST), and glutathione reductase (GR), highlighting its central role in detoxification and metabolic processes. Superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity was notably higher in muscle tissue during summer, suggesting increased metabolic activity. A strong correlation was found between pH and the activities of SOD, CAT, GPx, GR, and metallothioneins (MTs), emphasizing the importance of water chemistry in influencing oxidative stress responses. This approach not only aids in understanding the local adaptations of these fish but also highlights the impacts of environmental stressors on high-mountain ecosystems. Continuous monitoring of water chemistry, particularly pH, is crucial for understanding and managing oxidative stress in aquatic organisms, especially in the context of global environmental changes.

Full life cycle assessment of insect biomass allows estimation of bioflows across water, air, and land

AbstractAs global environmental change continues, animals face uncertain habitat availability and quality that influences life cycle phenology and population dynamics. For decades, the population abundance and emergence patterns of burrowing mayflies have been used as a sentinel for water quality changes in large freshwater systems around the world. Despite reduced point source pollutants, evidence is mounting that the interactions among habitat loss, contaminants, and changing climate could be causing declines in mayfly production and shifts in emergence timing. We combined radar observations with traditional field measures to identify changes in mayfly populations from nymph to adult. We studied Hexagenia sp. secondary production in a large reservoir, Lake Seminole, which has contrasting water sources and land use on each arm that could contribute to differences in emergence patterns. We predicted that mayfly secondary production would be higher, and emergence would be earlier in the Chattahoochee arm versus the Flint arm because of differences in available nutrients and temperature. Benthic declines in abundance and biomass followed radar observations of emergence. Mean annual water temperature was similar, with the Flint arm having less seasonal variation. Mayfly growth was similar across the lake, but production was higher in the upper Flint arm, perhaps because of temperature stability, higher nutrient concentrations, and more lotic conditions. The natural abundance of nitrogen‐stable isotopes in mayflies showed distinct patterns between the arms and from nymph to adult. Linking benthic sampling with radar observations verified our capability to track mayfly biomass across the landscape and begin to calibrate previous measures of production with radar‐derived abundance. Coupling radar observations with stable isotope and tissue nutrient measurements allowed us to further quantify the subsidies moving from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems, setting the framework to examine both historic and future population changes and mayfly contributions to cross‐ecosystem subsidies.

Catching Up with the Future: Diplomacy for a New Global Landscape

Summary This contribution discusses the impact of three structural phenomena on the strategic functions of future diplomacy. The first is the shifting global power balance, which has important consequences for the manner in which European ministries of foreign affairs reposition themselves with regard to both big and middle powers. The assertiveness of big, revisionist states implies a return to realpolitik in which hard power takes centre stage. The ascendency of middle powers reinforces the need to build equal partnerships with increasingly influential non-Western countries. The other two game changers are the existential challenges of climate change and the ascent of artificial intelligence. A conflict-sensitive climate approach requires an adjusted diplomatic toolkit. Artificial intelligence has an effect on many different policy dimensions, from international governance to trade promotion. All these developments are relevant to the practice of diplomacy and the skills diplomats need in order to navigate through a changing global environment.

Impact of global environmental changes on the range contraction of Eurasian moose since the Late Pleistocene

Climatic oscillations are considered primary factors influencing the distribution of various life forms on Earth. Large species adapted to cold climates are particularly vulnerable to extinction due to the climate changes. In our study, we investigated whether the temperature increase since the Late Pleistocene and the contraction of environmental niche during the Holocene were the main factors contributing to the decreasing range of moose (Alces alces) in Europe. We also examined whether there were significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by moose in Europe and Asia, that could support the division of moose into western and eastern forms, as suggested by genetic and morphological data. We analysed environmental conditions in locations of 655 subfossil and modern moose occurrences over the past 50,000 years in Eurasia. We found that the most limiting climatic factor for the moose distribution since the Late Pleistocene was July temperature. >90 % of moose records were found in areas where the mean summer temperature was below 19 °C, with July temperatures showing over 3 times narrower interquartile range compared to January temperatures. We identified significant differences in environmental conditions between areas inhabited by the European and Asiatic moose. In Europe, the species occurred in regions with milder climates, higher primary productivity, and more frequently within forest biomes compared to Asiatic individuals. The moose range shifted more in the west-east than in the south-north direction during the Holocene climate warming in Europe. We concluded that although the area of suitable moose habitat has increased since 12–8 ka years BP, as demonstrated by environmental niche modeling, the retreat of A. alces in large areas of Europe was likely caused by anthropogenic landscape change (e.g., deforestation) and overhunting by humans during the late Holocene rather than by climate warming during the Pleistocene to Holocene transition.

Invasion Dynamics of the Alien Amphibian Xenopus laevis in France: Perspectives for Management

ABSTRACTBackgroundInvasive alien species (IAS) are recognised as pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose significant threats to socio‐ecosystems worldwide. Although much attention is focused on prevalent IAS, the oversight of species that are still contained and approaching critical invasion thresholds raises concern. In this context, scientific support to implement effective and spatially informed management strategies is critically needed.AimsOur study focuses on the African clawed frog, Xenopus laevis, a concerning IAS projected to undergo a substantial expansion in Europe.Materials & MethodsUsing a comprehensive analysis of three distinct datasets, our study aimed to document newly colonised sites and provide an up‐to‐date overview of the current distribution and invasion dynamics of X. laevis in France.ResultsOur results revealed recent colonisation of new sites within the established range of the species and the continuous progression of the invasion front at a rate of 1.2 km per year. This annual progression currently translates to an expansion of approximately 400 km2 per year in the predicted distribution range of the species.DiscussionEmphasising the urgent need for proactive management, we recommend measures encompassing prevention, early detection and rapid responses to invasion, delineated across three strategic zoning levels.ConclusionImmediate and coordinated efforts are imperative to anticipate and mitigate the considerable socio‐environmental impacts associated with this species in the future.

Advancing Knowledge in Forest Water Use Efficiency Under Global Climate Change Through Scientometric Analysis

Forests are critical in regulation of carbon and water cycles and mitigation of climate change. Forest water-use efficiency (WUE) refers to the ratio of biomass produced (or assimilated carbon) to the amount of water used by forests, which indicates how effectively a forest utilizes water to achieve productivity. Climate change and its impact on forest WUE are important research directions that explore the complex relationship between global environmental change and the forest ecosystem dynamics. The global intensification of climate change underscores the need for an inclusive understanding of forest water use and makes it crucial to know how forests balance carbon and water resources, which is essential for effective forest management and predicting ecosystem responses to climate change. This study aims to comprehensively and objectively analyze current research trends and future directions related to the response of forest WUE to climate change. Our database included 1755 research papers from the Web of Science Core Collection, spanning from 2000 to 2023. Our analysis included cooperative networks of countries, authors, and institutions, as well as the most frequently cited journals and articles, keyword co-occurrence analysis, and a keyword burst analysis. The results showed that the top cooperative country, author, and institution is PR China, Prof. Dr. Jesús Julio Camarero from the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, respectively. The leading journal in this field is “Global Change Biology”. Critical research hot topics include gas exchange, modeling, altitudinal gradients, tree growth dynamics, net carbon exchange, global change drivers, tropical forests, nitrogen stoichiometry, Northern China plains, and extreme drought conditions. Frontier topics that have emerged in recent years include studies on China’s Loess Plateau, stable isotopes, radial growth, gross primary productivity, and Scots pine. The insights from this analysis are vital for researchers, decision-makers, and forestry professionals aiming to mitigate the impacts of climate change on forest WUE and overall ecosystem health and resilience. This study emphasizes the importance of sustained research efforts and global research collaboration in addressing the intricate challenges posed by climate change to forest ecosystems.

Harnessing Ascidians as Model Organisms for Environmental Risk Assessment

Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) often relies on a restricted set of species as bio-indicators, introducing uncertainty when modeling complex environmental variables. This may lead to oversimplified or erroneous risk assessments. Ascidians, marine filter-feeding sessile chordates, are valuable models for scientific research in various biological fields such as stem cell biology, embryogenesis, regeneration, innate immunity, and developmental biology. Their global distribution, sensitivity to pollutants, high abundance, mass sexual reproduction, and habitation in coastal areas impacted by anthropogenic pollution make them excellent indicators for monitoring marine pollution and global environmental changes, including biological invasions and species diversity diminution cases. Despite their potential as environmental bioindicators, ascidians remain underutilized in ERAs (≤0.13% of ERA studies), particularly in the field of chemical pollution impact assessment, primarily due to a lack of standardization. This underrepresentation poses a challenge for accurate modeling, especially in models relying on a broad range of species (e.g., Species Sensitivity Distributions). Given these constraints, expanding the use of ascidians in ERAs could improve the comprehension and precision of environmental changes and their assessments. This underscores the necessity for future research to establish standardized testing protocols and choose the most suitable ascidian species for inclusion in ERAs.

Assessing Hydrological Response and Resilience of Watersheds as Strategy for Climatic Change Adaptation in Neotropical Region

This study aimed to assess the hydrological response and resilience of watersheds in a neotropical region to identify regions sensitive to climate variations, enabling the development of adaptive strategies in response to global environmental changes. This study applied Budyko’s framework using Fuh’s hydrological model rewritten by Zhou to estimate hydrological response and Budyko’s metrics (deviation and elasticity) to estimate hydrological resilience to climatic changes in 26 watersheds in southeastern Brazil. The proposed modeling was able to capture the differences among the watersheds, with “m” values ranging from 1.79 to 3.63. It was possible to rank the hydrological resilience from low to high across watersheds using Budyko’s metrics, where the highest values of elasticity were found in watersheds with a higher percentage of forest cover. The sensitive analyses showed that watersheds with higher “m” values are more sensitive to changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. The results also demonstrate that mean elevation and stream density were two key variables that influence the “m” value; these physiographic characteristics may alter the water and energy balance of the watershed affecting the water yield. A relationship between watershed’s hydrological response and resilience was proposed to identify critical areas for the stability of water yield in the watersheds, providing a guide for public policy and suggesting ways to help the management of water resources in watersheds.

Ex vivo and in vitro methods as a platform for studying anthropogenic effects on marine mammals: four challenges and how to meet them

Marine mammals are integral to global biodiversity and marine health through their roles in coastal, benthic, and pelagic ecosystems. Marine mammals face escalating threats from climate change, pollution, and human activities, which perturb their oceanic environment. The diverse biology and extreme adaptations evolved by marine mammals make them important study subjects for understanding anthropogenic pressures on marine ecosystems. However, ethical and logistical constraints restrict the tractability of experimental research with live marine mammals. Additionally, studies on the effects of changing ocean environments are further complicated by intricate gene-environment interactions across populations and species. These obstacles can be overcome with a comprehensive strategy that involves a systems-level approach integrating genotype to phenotype using rigorously defined experimental conditions in vitro and ex vivo. A thorough analysis of the interactions between the genetics of marine mammals and their exposure to anthropogenic pressures will enable robust predictions about how global environmental changes will affect their health and populations. In this perspective, we discuss four challenges of implementing such non-invasive approaches across scientific fields and international borders: 1) practical and ethical limitations of in vivo experimentation with marine mammals, 2) accessibility to relevant tissue samples and cell cultures; 3) open access to harmonized methods and datasets and 4) ethical and equitable research practices. Successful implementation of the proposed approach has the potential impact to inspire new solutions and strategies for marine conservation.

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ ПОРТРЕТ КАЗАХСТАНА: НОВЫЕ ВЕХИ

Recent years have been marked by steady growth of the Kazakh economy, which is supported by the dynamic development of key sectors and the active introduction of new technologies. In 2024, the country continues to successfully adapt to the changing global economic environment, including commodity price volatility and global economic turmoil. The Kazakh economy has demonstrated steady positive dynamics, which is due to the stable growth of key industries and innovative development. Despite global economic challenges and fluctuations in commodity prices, the country continues to demonstrate adaptability and sustainability of economic growth in 2024. International financial institutions and analytical centers agree that the Kazakh economy will maintain moderate growth rates in 2024. This indicates a gradual recovery from global economic turmoil. An important factor contributing to such development is the diversification of the economy, aimed at reducing dependence on commodity exports and stimulating domestic consumption, infrastructure projects and innovation. The Kazakh government is actively working to improve the country's investment attractiveness, support small and medium-sized businesses and develop human capital. These measures are aimed at ensuring sustainable economic growth and improving the well-being of the population. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the current economic state of Kazakhstan, including the dynamics of GDP and GRP, as well as development prospects.

Salinity regulates radial growth of Cynometra ramiflora L. in the Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem

The mangrove biome is threatened by global environmental changes (including sea level rise, SLR) and anthropogenic disturbances. In this context, understanding the growth dynamics of mangrove species is essential for designing effective management plans for critical mangrove ecosystems such as the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Therefore, this study aims to (1) identify the growth-ring boundaries and tested their periodicity (annual nature) in one of the ecologically important understory mangrove species, Cynometra ramiflora in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, (2) determine the influences of climate and river discharge on radial growth, and (3) examine the influence of habitat variables (e.g., regulators, resources and forest structure) on radial growth. The growth-ring boundaries of C. ramiflora were distinct on the polished wood discs and marked by a layer of flattened fibers mixed with parenchyma. The agreement between individual growth-ring series and chronology statistics enabled us to develop for the first time a 42-year-long chronology spanning from 1979 to 2021. The results indicate that growth rings are annual and could be used for age and growth rate estimations. Monsoonal and annual precipitation enhanced radial growth. Growth was also positively influenced by the amount of river discharge received prior to the onset of growth, particularly during the pre-monsoon. Generalized additive models (GAMs) revealed that among the habitat variables, salinity had a strong negative influence on radial growth of the studied species in the Sundarbans, while tree density and diameter heterogeneity (coefficient of variation, CoV of diameter at breast height) had positive influences. This study revealed that C. ramiflora growth is strongly dependent on soil salinity and highlighted the potential of this approach for improving the prediction of future tree growth and distribution in the face of projected global changes, in particular, SLR.

Visual MODFLOW, solute transport modeling, and remote sensing techniques for adapting aquifer potentiality under reclamation and climate change impacts in coastal aquifer

Global environmental changes, such as climate change and reclamation alterations, significantly influence hydrological processes, leading to hydrologic nonstationarity and challenges in managing water availability and distribution. This study introduces a conceptual underpinning for the rational development and sustainability of groundwater resources. As one of the areas intended for the development projects within the Egyptian national plan for the reclamation of one and a half million acres; hundreds of pumping wells were constructed in the Moghra area to fulfill the reclamation demand. This study investigates the long-term impacts of exploiting the drilled pumping wells under climate change. The approach is to monitor the groundwater levels and the salinity values in the Moghra aquifer with various operational strategies and present proposed sustainable development scenarios. The impact of global warming and climate change is estimated for a prediction period of 30 years by using satellite data, time series geographical analysis, and statistical modeling. Using MODFLOW and Solute Transport (MT3DMS) modules of Visual MODFLOW USGS 2005 software, a three-dimensional (3D) finite-difference model is created to simulate groundwater flow and salinity distribution in the Moghra aquifer with the input of forecast downscaling (2020–2050) of main climatic parameters (PPT, ET, and Temp). The optimal adaptation-integrated scenario to cope with long-term groundwater withdrawal and climate change impacts is achieved when the Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources (MWRI) recommends that the maximum drawdown shouldn’t be more significant than 1.0 m/ year. In this scenario, 1,500 pumping wells are distributed with an equal space of 500 m, a pumping rate of 1,200 m3/day and input the forecast of the most significant climatic parameters after 30 years. The output results of this scenario revealed a drawdown level of 42 m and a groundwater salinity value of 16,000 mg/l. Climate change has an evident impact on groundwater quantity and quality, particularly in the unconfined coastal aquifer, which is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and pollution of drinking water resources. The relationship between climate change and the hydrologic cycle is crucial for predicting future water availability and addressing water-related issues.