Global Energy Marketplace Research Articles

Comments: Pricing Index Launched for “Black Mass”

As an indicator of the evolving global energy marketplace, recycled battery metals just earned their own spot pricing assessments for China and Europe. S&P Global Commodity Insights launched nine new daily “black mass” evaluations last month “to bring greater transparency to pricing of the battery raw materials market.” These complement its existing suite of daily battery metals assessments. The hunt is ongoing, and escalating, for virgin sources of metals such as lithium, manganese, cobalt, and nickel for use in lithium-ion batteries ranging from those in watches and devices to utility-scale storage, electric vehicles (EVs), and oil- and gas-related applications. In this issue of JPT, the use of oilfield technologies in deep-sea mining for these metals is highlighted. An ExxonMobil researcher, M. Stanley Whittingham, created the first examples of the rechargeable lithium-ion battery in the 1970s. He and two other researchers were awarded the 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for the development of these batteries. For decades, lithium-ion batteries have been used in oil- and gas-related applications such as downhole tools related to drilling, measurement, testing, wireline, and well intervention. They can operate under extreme conditions and temperatures (from 220°C to –50°C, in the deep subsea) and are safe in potentially inflammable and explosive environments. Their long operation life and reliability are vital because of the high costs associated with downhole battery failures. More familiar to many is the use of lithium-ion batteries in EVs. The annual demand for EV batteries (in kilotonnes) is forecast to more than double from 2019 to 2030, according to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2020. The increased demand is due largely to their high energy density. They hold more energy in a smaller area than other types of batteries. New technologies enable the recovery and reuse of core components when these batteries reach the end of their useful lives. The battery pack can be collected, dismantled, and shredded. The shredded material is then processed to produce so-called “black mass” from which these high-value critical metals can be extracted and reused in new battery production. Although the demand is expected to mushroom, the global supply of these metals is finite. Their mining is energy- and labor-intensive. Mining the ore creates environmental effects such as land disruption and emissions; refining brine yields lower-grade lithium and recovers less of the metal present than is recovered from ore. Mining in Chile, a major lithium exporter, consumes 65% of the country’s water. In September 2022, the American Chemical Society estimated only 5% of the world’s lithium-ion batteries were recycled from the projected 8 million tons of waste. S&P Global expects recycled battery materials to make up an increasing share of the supply chain well beyond 2030. The potential availability of recycled materials would account for 30% of nickel, 27% of lithium, and 40% of cobalt demand between 2020 and 2050. Recycled metals have the potential to be cheaper than their virgin equivalents and provide supply in regions that do not have the natural resources available. In addition to reducing the need for virgin materials, recycling/reuse reduces the carbon emissions associated with new mining activities. But recycling of spent lithium-ion batteries, as a relatively nascent process, has its problems. Both physical and chemical processes are involved. Physical processes include pretreatment and recovery of electrode materials which include disassembly, crushing, screening, magnetic separation, washing, and heating treatment. Chemical processes involve leaching, separation, extraction, and chemical/electrochemical precipitation. Challenges remain to achieve the required “perfect” recovery in terms of safety, low cost, low energy consumption, and no pollution. Another challenge is to convince carmakers to use recycled materials. In an IEEE Spectrum article, Yan Wang, a professor of mechanical engineering at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, said, “Battery companies still hesitate to use recycled material in their batteries.” A study by Wang and researchers from the US Advanced Battery Consortium and A123 Systems, a battery company, concluded, “it becomes clear that recycled materials can be as good as or even better than the high-quality control materials.” As with most rapidly advancing technologies and processes, the concept must be proven, and the economics must make sense to increase widespread adoption. In the circular economy, the recycling and reuse of these high-value, limited-resource metals have the potential to be a shining star.

An Integrated Control Tower: Coordinating and Unlocking Investment Capital for Clean Energy

As recent history highlights, there are numerous challenges in bringing novel energy technologies from the lab all the way to the global energy marketplace. But one challenge in particular has proven particularly intractable recently; the lack of financing for clean energy entrepreneurs. In this white paper, we propose a new coordinating platform that can facilitate an intelligent information flow over the entire clean energy development cycle. Through this platform, we expect that new capital inflows can and will increase as we better allocate the risks (and thus returns) of clean energy investments to the parties that can shoulder them. We develop a blueprint of this integrated control tower, which is a multi-strategy vehicle that better aligns risks with investors and thereby facilitates high investment returns. It will offer a tailored path to all agents participating in this sector, just as an air traffic control tower guides planes on different glide paths depending on their specific characteristics and objectives (destinations). The new control tower will simultaneously coordinate three core intermediary functions: (1) an anchoring institution that offers small amounts of priming capital that can even take a first-loss position; (2) a financial intermediary that raises capital, at-scale, from various funding sources and provides equity and debt capital to companies maturing commercially; and (3) a trusted infomediary that provides reliable and objective information about clean energy companies or projects in a highly transparent and trustworthy manner, and help long-term institutional investors (LTIs) to mobilize their capital into clean energy ventures while meeting their unique investment criteria. The control tower will, we hope, lower barriers to clean energy funding and optimize access to available financial resources by directing “investor traffic” towards the most efficient and aligned investments products and opportunities.

Rethinking Energy Statecraft: United States Foreign Policy and the Changing Geopolitics of Energy

AbstractThe United States Administration has an opportunity to foster a new energy statecraft based on the realities of a dynamic and rapidly‐changing global energy marketplace. The geopolitical considerations of this energy transition are not well‐explored. Additionally, the recent renaissance of oil and gas in the US has reinforced the alluring notion that energy independence and national energy security are the same thing. But the global nature of energy markets expose this notion as utterly misleading. A re‐envisaged energy statecraft would utilize a variety of US foreign policy and multilateral tools to reform the international energy sector, protect the global energy marketplace, and spur investments in new generation and innovation. These steps require building an integrated approach to the multiple energy‐security challenges.

Use of Systemigrams to Identify Emergence in Complex Adaptive Systems

AbstractThis paper presents the application of a sociotechnical modeling framework to capture emergent patterns and regional dependencies in the international natural gas market in context with the larger global energy marketplace. Soft systems methods were used to produce conceptual models of flow and interaction in order to inform the design of analytical models. First, this research project captured and analyzed the flows of natural gas in international markets by developing a conceptual model of the global natural gas infrastructure and future growth options at the regional level. Policies, players, infrastructure, and markets all exist at the global, regional, and national level to make up the present‐day natural gas landscape. Second, the research team worked to model the overall global natural gas sociotechnical enterprise and its future growth options to understand the regional versus global interdependencies and their likely effect on the changing natural gas landscape. The results capture emerging trends in the system that may not be obvious without a systemic analysis.

Global Emergence of Natural Gas, a Complex Systems Analysis

This paper presents the application of a sociotechnical modeling framework to capture regional dependencies in the international natural gas market in context with the global energy marketplace at large. Soft systems methods were used to produce conceptual models of flow and interaction in order to inform the design of analytical models. First, this research project captured and analyzed the flows of natural gas in international markets by developing a conceptual model of the global natural gas infrastructure and future growth options at the regional level. Policies, players, infrastructure, and markets all exist at the global, regional, and national level to make up the present-day natural gas landscape. Second, the research team worked to model the overall global natural gas sociotechnical enterprise and its future growth options to understand the regional versus global interdependencies and their likely effect on the changing natural gas landscape. The results capture emerging trends in the system that may not be obvious without a systemic analysis and capture gaps in existing predictive models of system performance.

ABSTRACT: A Model For 21st Century Geoscientists As High Performance Leaders in the Global Energy Marketplace: Liberating Beliefs, Great Expectations, and Elegant Solutions

ABSTRACT: A Model For 21st Century Geoscientists As High Performance Leaders in the Global Energy Marketplace: Liberating Beliefs, Great Expectations, and Elegant Solutions