Global SO2 Emissions Research Articles

Long-range transport of sulfur dioxide emissions from external sources to Tehran

Large-scale emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the combustion of heavy fuel oils are deteriorating the air quality in Tehran. Our analysis of the long-term SO2 emission data in Tehran showed that the magnitude of local SO2 emission sources is inadequate to reach current SO2 levels. Bivariate polar plots, k-mean cluster, pairwise polar correlation, and potential source contribution function analysis provided evidence of the impact of large-scale transport of SO2 emissions from external locations in the west/northwest, north/northeast, and south/southwestern areas of Tehran. Further observations of these hotspots were observed in analyses conducted on TROPOMI satellite data confirming significant SO2 emissions from the consumption of heavy fuel oils in thermal power plants and oil/gas refineries. These results also strongly agreed with the NASA global SO2 emission source catalog showing the location of major SO2 emissions in the region. All approaches confirmed that Tehran is predominantly affected by regional transport of SO2 from external sources further away located in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and adjacent provinces neighboring Tehran. Approximately 80% of the total SO2 concentration in Tehran was observed to have impacts from the external hotspots outside of Tehran. While local emission sources only contribute around 20% of the total SO2 concentration.

Version 2 of the global catalogue of large anthropogenic and volcanic SO2 sources and emissions derived from satellite measurements

Abstract. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS), and TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite spectrometers were used to update and extend the previously developed global catalogue of large SO2 emission sources. This version 2 of the global catalogue covers the period of 2005–2021 and includes a total of 759 continuously emitting point sources releasing from about 10 kt yr−1 to more than 4000 kt yr−1 of SO2, that have been identified and grouped by country and primary source origin: volcanoes (106 sources); power plants (477); smelters (74); and sources related to the oil and gas industry (102). There are several major improvements compared to the original catalogue: it combines emissions estimates from three satellite instruments instead of just OMI, uses a new version 2 of the OMI and OMPS SO2 dataset, and updated consistent site-specific air mass factors (AMFs) are used to calculate SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs). The newest TROPOMI SO2 data processed with the Covariance-Based Retrieval Algorithm (COBRA), used in the catalogue, can detect sources with emissions as low as 8 kt yr−1 (in 2018–2021) compared to the 30 kt yr−1 limit for OMI. In general, there is an overall agreement within ±12 % in total emissions estimated from the three satellite instruments for large regions. For individual emission sources, the spread is larger: the annual emissions estimated from OMI and TROPOMI agree within ±13 % in 50 % of cases and within ±28 % in 90 % of cases. The version 2 catalogue emissions were calculated as a weighted average of emission estimates from the three satellite instruments using an inverse-variance weighting method. OMI, OMPS, and TROPOMI data contribute 7 %, 5 %, and 88 % to the average, respectively, for small (<30 kt yr−1) sources and 33 %, 20 %, and 47 %, respectively, for large (>300 kt yr−1) sources. The catalogue data show an approximate 50 % decline in global SO2 emissions between 2005 and 2021, although emissions were relatively stable during the last 3 years. The version 2 of the global catalogue has been posted at the NASA global SO2 monitoring website (https://doi.org/10.5067/MEASURES/SO2/DATA406, Fioletov et al., 2022).

Shipping regulations lead to large reduction in cloud perturbations

Global shipping accounts for 13% of global emissions of SO2, which, once oxidized to sulfate aerosol, acts to cool the planet both directly by scattering sunlight and indirectly by increasing the albedo of clouds. This cooling due to sulfate aerosol offsets some of the warming effect of greenhouse gasses and is the largest uncertainty in determining the change in the Earth's radiative balance by human activity. Ship tracks-the visible manifestation of the indirect of effect of ship emissions on clouds as quasi-linear features-have long provided an opportunity to quantify these effects. However, they have been arduous to catalog and typically studied only in particular regions for short periods of time. Using a machine-learning algorithm to automate their detection we catalog more than 1 million ship tracks to provide a global climatology. We use this to investigate the effect of stringent fuel regulations introduced by the International Maritime Organization in 2020 on their global prevalence since then, while accounting for the disruption in global commerce caused by COVID-19. We find a marked, but clearly nonlinear, decline in ship tracks globally: An 80% reduction in SO[Formula: see text] emissions causes only a 25% reduction in the number of tracks detected.

A Review on Impact of Anthropogenic Sulphur Dioxide Pollution on Health and Environment

The explosive global change in the emissions of Sulphur dioxide (SO2) over the decades have brought about tremendous effects in the regional as well as global scale in the composition and quality of air that we breathe. The global SO2 emission peaked in the 1970s, decreased until 2000 and has risen to peak again mainly as the result of increased globalization in developing countries. The global estimation is surprisingly low but the regional output of SO2 is high. The main hotspots being in East Asia Countries. The Sulphur aerosols not only impacts the animals’ health, but those of the ecosystems at large. SO2 contributes to global warming, ozone depletion, acid rain, smog etc. that has brought disastrous environmental conditions. WHO recommends a maximum exposure of not more than 0.5 ppm for around 24 hours’ span. SO2 reacts with other gases to form sulphate particles, constituent of particulate matters i.e. PM 2.5 concentrations, the exposure to which causes skin, respiratory, reproductive failures and cardiovascular ailments. This study, as such, is meant to bring into light the sources of SO2 and its harmful effects on health and environment at large. Air pollution is a major issue with adverse effects prevailing over the globe at present.

A chronology of global air quality.

Air pollution has been recognized as a threat to human health since the time of Hippocrates, ca 400 BC. Successive written accounts of air pollution occur in different countries through the following two millennia until measurements, from the eighteenth century onwards, show the growing scale of poor air quality in urban centres and close to industry, and the chemical characteristics of the gases and particulate matter. The industrial revolution accelerated both the magnitude of emissions of the primary pollutants and the geographical spread of contributing countries as highly polluted cities became the defining issue, culminating with the great smog of London in 1952. Europe and North America dominated emissions and suffered the majority of adverse effects until the latter decades of the twentieth century, by which time the transboundary issues of acid rain, forest decline and ground-level ozone became the main environmental and political air quality issues. As controls on emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SO2 and NOx) began to take effect in Europe and North America, emissions in East and South Asia grew strongly and dominated global emissions by the early years of the twenty-first century. The effects of air quality on human health had also returned to the top of the priorities by 2000 as new epidemiological evidence emerged. By this time, extensive networks of surface measurements and satellite remote sensing provided global measurements of both primary and secondary pollutants. Global emissions of SO2 and NOx peaked, respectively, in ca 1990 and 2018 and have since declined to 2020 as a result of widespread emission controls. By contrast, with a lack of actions to abate ammonia, global emissions have continued to grow.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.

Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19

The global response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sudden reduction of both GHG emissions and air pollutants. Here, using national mobility data, we estimate global emission reductions for ten species during the period February to June 2020. We estimate that global NOx emissions declined by as much as 30% in April, contributing a short-term cooling since the start of the year. This cooling trend is offset by ~20% reduction in global SO2 emissions that weakens the aerosol cooling effect, causing short-term warming. As a result, we estimate that the direct effect of the pandemic-driven response will be negligible, with a cooling of around 0.01 ± 0.005 °C by 2030 compared to a baseline scenario that follows current national policies. In contrast, with an economic recovery tilted towards green stimulus and reductions in fossil fuel investments, it is possible to avoid future warming of 0.3 °C by 2050. Reduced GHG and air pollutant emissions during the COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in declines in NOx emissions of up to 30%, causing short-term cooling, while ~20% SO2 emissions decline countered this for overall minimal temperature effect.

Global Sulfur Dioxide Emissions and the Driving Forces.

The presence of sulfur dioxide (SO2) in the air is a global concern because of its severe environmental and public health impacts. Recent evidence from satellite observations shows rapid changes in the spatial distribution of global SO2 emissions, but such features are generally missing in global emission inventories that use a bottom-up method due to the lack of up-to-date information, especially in developing countries. Here, we rely on the latest data available on emission activities, control measures, and emission factors to estimate global SO2 emissions for the period 1960-2014 on a 0.1° × 0.1° spatial resolution. We design two counterfactual scenarios to isolate the contributions of emission activity growth and control measure deployment on historical SO2 emission changes. We find that activity growth has been the major factor driving global SO2 emission changes overall, but control measure deployment is playing an increasingly important role. With effective control measures deployed in developed countries, the predominant emission contributor has shifted from developed countries in the early 1960s (61%) to developing countries at present (83%). Developing countries show divergency in mitigation strategies and thus in SO2 emission trends. Stringent controls in China are driving the recent decline in global emissions. A further reduction in SO2 emissions would come from a large number of developing nations that currently lack effective SO2 emission controls.

An inter-comparative evaluation of PKU-FUEL global SO2 emission inventory

PKU-FUEL is a recently developed gridded global emission inventory for multiple air pollutants that uses a bottom-up approach. The inventory includes data collected monthly for the period of 1960 to 2014 and at a 0.1° × 0.1° latitude/longitude resolution. In an effort to evaluate and improve this emission inventory, the PKU-FUEL Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emission inventory was compared to other currently available and widely used global SO2 emission inventories constructed based on bottom-up and top-down approaches, including CEDS and OMI-HTAP. While PKU-FUEL is capable of capturing SO2 emissions across the globe and particularly in Asia, it misses 41 industrial point sources globally, accounting for 9.3% of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) remote sensing-measured industrial point sources. Most of these missing point sources are identified in Latin America, the Middle East (~60%), and some remote places. To improve the PKU-FUEL SO2 inventory, we applied OMI-measured emissions to sources missing from PKU-FUEL. GEOS-Chem model simulations were performed to evaluate original and improved PKU-FUEL SO2 inventories against measured SO2 concentrations across the world. Results were further compared to GEOS-Chem modeled SO2 concentrations using the CEDS inventory. We show that the modeled SO2 concentrations determined using both CEDS and improved PKU-FUEL inventories to a large extent corroborate sampled data and that the improved PKU-FUEL performs better for those regions lacking monitoring data.

Global and regional trends of atmospheric sulfur

The profound changes in global SO2 emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and Europe. Europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and East Asia. The uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. The agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.

Gridded emissions of air pollutants for the period 1970–2012 within EDGAR v4.3.2

Abstract. The new version of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v4.3.2) compiles gaseous and particulate air pollutant emissions, making use of the same anthropogenic sectors, time period (1970–2012), and international activity data that is used for estimating GHG emissions, as described in a companion paper (Janssens-Maenhout et al., 2017). All human activities, except large scale biomass burning and land use, land-use change, and forestry are included in the emissions calculation. The bottom-up compilation methodology of sector-specific emissions was applied consistently for all world countries, providing methodological transparency and comparability between countries. In addition to the activity data used to estimate GHG emissions, air pollutant emissions are determined by the process technology and end-of-pipe emission reduction abatements. Region-specific emission factors and abatement measures were selected from recent available scientific literature and reports. Compared to previous versions of EDGAR, the EDGAR v4.3.2 dataset covers all gaseous and particulate air pollutants, has extended time series (1970–2012), and has been evaluated with quality control and quality assurance (QC and QA) procedures both for the emission time series (e.g. particulate matter – PM – mass balance, gap-filling for missing data, the split-up of countries over time, few updates in the emission factors, etc.) and grid maps (full coverage of the world, complete mapping of EDGAR emissions with sector-specific proxies, etc.). This publication focuses on the gaseous air pollutants of CO, NOx, SO2, total non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), NH3, and the aerosols PM10, PM2.5, black carbon (BC), and organic carbon (OC). Considering the 1970–2012 time period, global emissions of SO2 increased from 99 to 103 Mt, CO from 441 to 562 Mt, NOx from 68 to 122 Mt, NMVOC from 119 to 170 Mt, NH3 from 25 to 59 Mt, PM10 from 37 to 65 Mt, PM2.5 from 24 to 41 Mt, BC from 2.7 to 4.5 Mt, and OC from 9 to 11 Mt. We present the country-specific emission totals and analyze the larger emitting countries (including the European Union) to provide insights on major sector contributions. In addition, per capita and per GDP emissions and implied emission factors – the apparent emissions per unit of production or energy consumption – are presented. We find that the implied emission factors (EFs) are higher for low-income countries compared to high-income countries, but in both cases decrease from 1970 to 2012. The comparison with other global inventories, such as the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Inventory (HTAP v2.2) and the Community Emission Data System (CEDS), reveals insights on the uncertainties as well as the impact of data revisions (e.g. activity data, emission factors, etc.). As an additional metric, we analyze the emission ratios of some pollutants to CO2 (e.g. CO∕CO2, NOx∕CO2, NOx∕CO, and SO2∕CO2) by sector, region, and time to identify any decoupling of air pollutant emissions from energy production activities and to demonstrate the potential of such ratios to compare to satellite-derived emission data. Gridded emissions are also made available for the 1970–2012 historic time series, disaggregated for 26 anthropogenic sectors using updated spatial proxies. The analysis of the evolution of hot spots over time allowed us to identify areas with growing emissions and where emissions should be constrained to improve global air quality (e.g. China, India, the Middle East, and some South American countries are often characterized by high emitting areas that are changing rapidly compared to Europe or the USA, where stable or decreasing emissions are evaluated). Sector- and component-specific contributions to grid-cell emissions may help the modelling and satellite communities to disaggregate atmospheric column amounts and concentrations into main emitting sectors. This work addresses not only the emission inventory and modelling communities, but also aims to broaden the usefulness of information available in a global emission inventory such as EDGAR to also include the measurement community. Data are publicly available online through the EDGAR website http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=432_AP and registered under https://doi.org/10.2904/JRC_DATASET_EDGAR.

Reply to “Comment on ‘Rethinking the Lower Bound on Aerosol Radiative Forcing’”

Kretzschmar et al., in a comment in 2017, use the spread in the output of aerosol–climate models to argue that the models refute the hypothesis (presented in a paper by Stevens in 2015) that for the mid-twentieth-century warming to be consistent with observations, then the present-day aerosol forcing, [Formula: see text] must be less negative than −1 W m−2. The main point of contention is the nature of the relationship between global SO2emissions and [Formula: see text] In contrast to the concave (log-linear) relationship used by Stevens and in earlier studies, whereby [Formula: see text] becomes progressively less sensitive to SO2emissions, some models suggest a convex relationship, which would imply a less negative lower bound. The model that best exemplifies this difference, and that is most clearly in conflict with the hypothesis of Stevens, does so because of an implausible aerosol response to the initial rise in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions in East and South Asia—already in 1975 this model’s clear-sky reflectance from anthropogenic aerosol over the North Pacific exceeds present-day estimates of the clear-sky reflectance by the total aerosol. The authors perform experiments using a new (observationally constrained) climatology of anthropogenic aerosols to further show that the effects of changing patterns of aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions during the late twentieth century have, for the same global emissions, relatively little effect on [Formula: see text] These findings suggest that the behavior Kretzschmar et al. identify as being in conflict with the lower bound in Stevens arises from an implausible relationship between SO2emissions and [Formula: see text] and thus provides little basis for revising this lower bound.

SO2 Emissions in China \u2013 Their Network and Hierarchical Structures

SO2 emissions lead to various harmful effects on environment and human health. The SO2 emission in China has significant contribution to the global SO2 emission, so it is necessary to employ various methods to study SO2 emissions in China with great details in order to lay the foundation for policymaking to improve environmental conditions in China. Network analysis is used to analyze the SO2 emissions from power generation, industrial, residential and transportation sectors in China for 2008 and 2010, which are recently available from 1744 ground surface monitoring stations. The results show that the SO2 emissions from power generation sector were highly individualized as small-sized clusters, the SO2 emissions from industrial sector underwent an integration process with a large cluster contained 1674 places covering all industrial areas in China, the SO2 emissions from residential sector was not impacted by time, and the SO2 emissions from transportation sector underwent significant integration. Hierarchical structure is obtained by further combining SO2 emissions from all four sectors and is potentially useful to find out similar patterns of SO2 emissions, which can provide information on understanding the mechanisms of SO2 pollution and on designing different environmental measure to combat SO2 emissions.

Distribution of sulfur aerosol precursors in the SPCZ released by continuous volcanic degassing at Ambrym, Vanuatu

The Melanesian Volcanic Arc (MVA) emits about 12kTd−1 of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the atmosphere from continuous passive (non-explosive) volcanic degassing, which contributes 20% of the global SO2 emission from volcanoes. Here we assess, from up-to-date and long-term observations, the SO2 emission of the Ambrym volcano, one of the dominant volcanoes in the MVA, and we investigate its role as sulfate precursor on the regional distribution of aerosols, using both satellite observations and model results at 1°×1° spatial resolution from WRF-Chem/GOCART. Without considering aerosol forcing on clouds, our model parameterizations for convection, vertical mixing and cloud properties provide a reliable chemical weather representation, making possible a cross-examination of model solution and observations. This preliminary work enables the identification of biases and limitations affecting both the model (missing sources) and satellite sensors and algorithms (for aerosol detection and classification) and leads to the implementation of improved transport and aerosol processes in the modeling system. On the one hand, the model confirms a 50% underestimation of SO2 emissions due to satellite swath sampling of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), consistent with field studies. The OMI irregular sampling also produces a level of noise that impairs its monitoring capacity during short-term volcanic events. On the other hand, the model reveals a large sensitivity on aerosol composition and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) due to choices of both the source function in WRF-Chem and size parameters for sea-salt in FlexAOD, the post-processor used to compute offline the simulated AOD. We then proceed to diagnosing the role of SO2 volcanic emission in the regional aerosol composition. The model shows that both dynamics and cloud properties associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) have a large influence on the oxidation of SO2 and on the transport pathways of volcanic species across the South Pacific atmosphere. For example, in the tropical cloudy air, the sulfate production in the aqueous phase is very efficient, resulting in the formation of a large cloud of highly scattering sulfate aerosols advected horizontally to Eastern Indonesia, in agreement with the AOD feature captured by MODIS/Aqua, but missed in CALIOP/CALIPSO (lidar) products. Model sensitivity experiments indicate that aerosol re-suspension due to evaporating droplets is a significant pathway for the supply of volcanic sulfur species in the remote marine boundary layer. By strongly modulating the irreversible loss due to wet scavenging, this aerosol process has a similar influence on the sulfur burden as natural emission from volcanoes or biogenic sources like dimethyl sulfate (DMS). The results emphasize the importance of MVA passive degassing and SPCZ dynamics on the aerosol background, and raise questions about potential impacts on the local climate and marine ecosystems.

Mercury fluxes from volcanic and geothermal sources: an update

Abstract We review the state of knowledge on global volcanogenic Hg emissions to the atmosphere and present new data from seven active volcanoes (Poás, Rincón de la Vieja, Turrialba, Aso, Mutnovsky, Gorely and Etna) and two geothermal fields (Las Pailas and Las Hornillas). The variability of Hg contents ( c. 4–125 ng m −3 ) measured in gaseous emissions reflects the dynamic nature of volcanic plumes, where the abundances of volatiles are determined by the physical nature of degassing and variable air dilution. Based on our dataset and previous work, we propose that an average Hg/SO 2 plume mass ratio of c. 7.8×10 −6 (±1.5×10 −6 ; 1 SE, n =13) is best representative of open-conduit quiescent degassing. Taking into account the uncertainty in global SO 2 emissions, we infer a global volcanic Hg flux from persistent degassing of c. 76±30 t a −1 . Our data are derived from active volcanoes during non-eruptive periods and we do not have any direct constraint on the Hg flux during periods of elevated SO 2 flux associated with large-scale effusive or explosive eruptions. This suggests that the time-averaged Hg flux from these volcanoes is even larger if the eruptive contribution is considered. Conversely, closed-conduit degassing and geothermal emissions contribute modest amounts of Hg.

English

Brick manufacturing is the fastest-growing industrial sector in many countries (like china, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan) and among the top three sectors, along with vehicle exhaust and resuspended road dust, contributing to the air pollution and health problems in Dhaka (Bangladesh). The total emissions from the brick manufacturing in the Greater Dhaka region, to produce 3.5 billion bricks per year has been estimated about 23,300 tons of particulate matter having aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 μm (PM2.5), 15,500 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2), 302,000 tons of carbon monoxide (CO), 6,000 tons of black carbon (BC) and 1.8 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2). Emission of individual air pollutant from brick kilns varied significantly during a firing batch (seven days) and between kilns. Average emission factors per 1,000 bricks were 6.35 to 12.3 kg of CO, 0.52 to 5.9 kg of SO2 and 0.64 to 1.4 kg of particulate matter (PM). Presently sulphur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) are the main issue pertaining to air pollution problems in developing countries, where it contributes both to urban pollution and to regional acid depositions. Among man-made sources, coal combustion in stationary sources accounts for 74%, industries 22% and transportation 2% of the total oxides of sulphur (SOx). and it is considered that SO2 is the chief emission in brick production. On an international basis, 75 to 85% of SO2 emissions are the result of fossil fuel burning. It is predictable that just about 93% of the global SO2 emissions are emitted in the northern hemisphere. It has been revealed that biomass is responsible for the emission of both trace and non trace gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) from traditional brick industries and lots of toxic fumes containing suspended particulate matters rich in carbon particles and high concentration of CO and SOx get produced. Studies have shown the average value of particulate matter of size less than ten microns and total suspend particles for the pre-operation time of brick kilns was 0.029 and 0.033 mg/m³, respectively whereas, it reached 0.050 and 0.056 mg/m³, respectively during the brick kiln operation time. Similarly, recent studies on brick kilns in District Budgam of Kashmir valley (India) have shown some major negative impacts on the environment in respect of air quality, human health and vegetation in particular. Key words: Pollution, emissions, environment, industrialization, transportation, brick kiln, human health, vegetation.

Observed levels and trends of gaseous SO2 and HNO3 at Mt. Waliguan, China: Results from 1997 to 2009

Long-term measurements of SO2 and HNO3, particularly those from the background sites, are rarely reported. We present for the first time the long-term measurements of SO2 and HNO3 at Waliguan (WLG), the only global baseline station in the back-land of the Eurasian Continent. The concentrations of SO2 and HNO3 were observed at WLG from 1997 to 2009. The observed annual mean concentrations of SO2 and HNO3 at WLG were 1.28 ± 0.41 and 0.22 ±0.19 μg/m3, respectively. The HNO3 concentrations were much higher in warmer seasons than in colder seasons, while the SO2 concentrations showed a nearly reversed seasonal pattern. In most months, the concentration of HNO3 was significantly correlated with that of SO2, suggesting that some common factors influence the variations of both gases and the precursors of HNO3 may partially be from the SO2-emitting sources. The SO2 concentration had a very significant (P < 0.0001) decreasing trend (−0.2 μg/(m3·yr)) in 1997–2002, but a significant (P < 0.05) increasing trend (+0.06 μg/(m3·yr)) in 2003–2009. The HNO3 concentration showed no statistically significant trend during 1997–2009. While the decrease of SO2 in 1997–2002 agrees with the trend of global SO2 emissions, the increase in 2003–2009 is not consistent with the decreasing trends in many other regions over the world. Trajectory analysis suggests that the airmasses from the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Takla Makan Desert regions contributed significantly to the increasing trends of SO2 and HNO3 at WLG in 2003–2009, with a rate of +0.13 μg/(m3·yr) and +0.007 μg/(m3·yr), respectively.

The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000–2011 emissions

The evolution of global and regional anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the last decade has been estimated through a bottom-up calculation. After increasing until about 2006, we estimate a declining trend continuing until 2011. However, there is strong spatial variability, with North America and Europe continuing to reduce emissions, with an increasing role of Asia and international shipping. China remains a key contributor, but the introduction of stricter emission limits followed by an ambitious program of installing flue gas desulfurization on power plants resulted in a significant decline in emissions from the energy sector and stabilization of total Chinese SO2 emissions. Comparable mitigation strategies are not yet present in several other Asian countries and industrial sectors in general, while emissions from international shipping are expected to start declining soon following an international agreement to reduce the sulfur content of fuel oil. The estimated trends in global SO2 emissions are within the range of representative concentration pathway (RCP) projections and the uncertainty previously estimated for the year 2005.

Global scenarios of air pollutant emissions from road transport through to 2050.

This paper presents global scenarios of sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM) emissions from road transport through to 2050, taking into account the potential impacts of: (1) the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries; (2) global CO2 mitigation policy implementation; and (3) vehicle cost assumptions, on study results. This is done by using a global energy system model treating the transport sector in detail. The major conclusions are the following. First, as long as non-developed countries adopt the same vehicle emission standards as in developed countries within a 30-year lag, global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles decrease substantially over time. Second, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty trucks make a large and increasing contribution to future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles. Third, the timing of air pollutant emission regulation implementation in developing countries has a large impact on future global emissions of SO2, NOx, and PM from road vehicles, whereas there is a possibility that global CO2 mitigation policy implementation has a comparatively small impact on them.

Regional and global trends in sulfate aerosol since the 1980s

In the last two decades anthropogenic SO2 emissions have decreased across Europe and North America but have increased across Asia. Long‐term surface observations suggest that atmospheric sulfate concentrations have followed trends in sulfur emissions more closely across Asia, than across the USA and Europe. We use a global model of chemistry and aerosol to understand changes in the regional sulfur budget between 1985 and 2000. For every 1% decrease in SO2 emissions over Europe and the USA the modelled sulfate column burden decreased by 0.65%, while over Asia a 1% increase in SO2 resulted in a 0.88% increase in sulfate. The different responses can be explained by the availability of oxidant in cloud. We find that because emissions have moved southward to latitudes where in‐cloud oxidation is less oxidant limited, the 12% reduction in global SO2 emissions between 1985 and 2000 caused only a 3% decrease in global sulfate.

Albedo Enhancement by Stratospheric Sulfur Injections: A Contribution to Resolve a Policy Dilemma?

Fossil fuel burning releases about 25 Pg of CO2 per year into the atmosphere, which leads to global warming (Prentice et al., 2001). However, it also emits 55 Tg S as SO2 per year (Stern, 2005), about half of which is converted to sub-micrometer size sulfate particles, the remainder being dry deposited. Recent research has shown that the warming of earth by the increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is partially countered by some backscattering to space of solar radiation by the sulfate particles, which act as cloud condensation nuclei and thereby influence the micro-physical and optical properties of clouds, affecting regional precipitation patterns, and increasing cloud albedo (e.g., Rosenfeld, 2000; Ramanathan et al., 2001; Ramaswamy et al., 2001). Anthropogenically enhanced sulfate particle concentrations thus cool the planet, offsetting an uncertain fraction of the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas warming. However, this fortunate coincidence is “bought” at a substantial price. According to the World Health Organization, the pollution particles affect health and lead to more than 500,000 premature deaths per year worldwide (Nel, 2005). Through acid precipitation and deposition, SO2 and sulfates also cause various kinds of ecological damage. This creates a dilemma for environmental policy makers, because the required emission reductions of SO2, and also anthropogenic organics (except black carbon), as dictated by health and ecological considerations, add to global warming and associated negative consequences, such as sea level rise, caused by the greenhouse gases. In fact, after earlier rises, global SO2 emissions and thus sulfate loading have been declining at the rate of 2.7% per year, potentially explaining the observed reverse from dimming to brightening in surface solar radiation at many stations worldwide (Wild et al., 2005). The corresponding increase in solar radiation by 0.10% per year from 1983 to 2001 (Pinker et al., 2005) contributed to the observed climate warming during the past decade. According to model calculations by Brasseur and Roeckner (2005), complete improvement in air quality could lead to a decadal global average surface air temperature increase by 0.8 K on most continents and 4 K in the Arctic. Further studies by Andreae et al. (2005) and Stainforth et al. (2005) indicate that global average climate warming during this century may even surpass the highest values in the projected IPCC global warming range of 1.4–5.8 ◦C (Cubasch et al., 2001). By far the preferred way to resolve the policy makers’ dilemma is to lower the emissions of the greenhouse gases. However, so far, attempts in that direction have